Trading Manny Machado
Entering the offseason, it was often suggested that the Orioles should listen to offers on Manny Machado with one year remaining until he reaches the open market, but most reports suggested that the O’s hoped to take one more shot at contending in 2018 before Machado, Zach Britton, Adam Jones and Brad Brach reach free agency. To that end, GM Dan Duquette spoke openly about his hope of adding as many as three starters to round out the rotation behind Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman in an effort to remain competitive.
Over the past week, reports have tilted in the other direction, as suggestions that the O’s would listen on Machado have now evolved to the point where The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported that Baltimore is shopping Machado and asking interested parties to make offers on the three-time All-Star. Baltimore is eyeing a pair of controllable young starters in talks for Machado, per Rosenthal. It’s a steep ask for a one-year rental of a player projected by MLBTR to earn $17.3MM in his final offseason of arbitration eligibility — even if Machado has been among the game’s truly elite talents over the past five seasons.
Baltimore’s preferences aside, it’s probably fair to assume that a trade package for Machado doesn’t expressly need to be built around two starters. Teams can offer any combination of Major League position players and prospects with some upper-level pitching as they attempt to pique Baltimore’s interest, and if the Orioles are truly open to the idea of moving Machado, it’s doubtful that they’d turn down a strong offer simply because the best player involved happened to be a position player.
It’s also worth noting that while many have suggested that a theoretical Machado trade could come with a “window” to negotiate an extension with his reps at MVP Sports, that scenario is uncommon. Nor, for that matter, should it be considered especially likely that Machado is particularly amenable to an extension with a new organization when he’s less than 12 months removed from hitting the open market as a 26-year-old free agent with a legitimate chance at a record-setting extension.
The Best Fit
From my vantage point, the Cardinals represent the best fit in terms of need and available prospects. The Cards are flush with young pitching, boasting names ranging from Alex Reyes to Luke Weaver to Jack Flaherty to Sandy Alcantara. They’ve also got a sizable crop of upper-level outfielders — another potential area of need for an Orioles with Adam Jones set to hit free agency next winter and no established presence in right field (with no disrespect to Austin Hays, who could well cement himself there in 2018).
The Cards may be reluctant to part with someone of Reyes’ upside or a pitcher like Weaver who shined so brightly down the stretch, but they have plenty of pieces to entice the Orioles. And, they could easily accommodate Machado’s desire to play shortstop by moving Paul DeJong to third base and/or dealing from the infield surplus that a Machado acquisition would create. For a team that just missed out on adding Giancarlo Stanton, acquiring Machado would be a strong fallback option, even if he comes as a short-term rental.
Plausible Landing Spots
Rosenthal noted in his report that Orioles owner Peter Angelos didn’t want to move Machado to the division-rival Yankees, but they have the farm system to make a Godfather offer and a newly vacated hole in their infield with today’s trade of Chase Headley to the Padres. Were it not for the reported reluctance on Angelos’ behalf, they’d merit mention alongside the Cards as one of the clearest fits for Machado.
It’s abundantly clear that the Angels have their sights set on returning to prominence in the AL West sooner rather than later. While they can’t offer Marte time at shortstop with Andrelton Simmons in tow, adding Machado would give the Halos one of the best defensive shortstop/third base combos of this generation. The Angels have an improving but still-not-elite farm, but they have some arms on the big league roster that could at least intrigue the Orioles. Andrew Heaney is coming back from Tommy John surgery but has four years of remaining control. Tyler Skaggs has had his own injury issues but has three years of control.
Weird Dark Horse Suggestions
The Rockies’ roster is stacked with controllable arms on the cusp of the big league roster and the team could view a Machado acquisition as a means of elevating them to the next level while they still have Nolan Arenado in the organization. Adding Machado at shortstop would likely push Trevor Story into a utility role, but having a versatile piece with that type of power would only seem to be a boon for the Rox.
The O’s and Nationals are hardly on the best of terms thanks to their ongoing MASN dispute, and in fact, the two teams have never brokered a trade since the Nats moved to D.C. However, Washington is committed to an aggressive bid at contending in their final guaranteed year of team control over Bryce Harper. The Nats are largely set in the outfield, but they could still shift Trea Turner back to center field and bump Michael Taylor to a fourth outfielder for one year in order to add a player of Machado’s caliber.
No Clear Need
It’s borderline insane to suggest that any team “doesn’t need” Machado; a player of his caliber would improve virtually any team, and he could be deployed at either third base or shortstop next season, so there’d be a variety of ways for him to slot into a new team’s lineup.
Still, teams such as the Cubs, Dodgers, Astros, Indians and Mariners lack a pressing need on the left side of the infield and/or already have long-term commitments already in place there. (Cleveland may also have some financial trepidation.) Any team could reasonably look at a Machado rental as a unique opportunity to acquire one of the game’s elite talents, but there’d be enough moving parts involved in talks with any of these teams to make each of them seem unlikely.
Long Shots That Merit Mention
The Giants are another club that missed out on Stanton and have an obvious spot at which they can work Machado into the infield. The hot corner was a black hole in San Francisco last year, as Giants third basemen combined to post a putrid .216/.268/.300 batting line on the season as a whole. Much as the Giants might love the notion of installing Machado at third base though, their best offer could almost certainly topped by an interested party with a better system.
Machado is an upgrade over Jorge Polanco at short for the Twins, who could push Polanco to third base and Miguel Sano to DH. But, the Twins are in dire need of arms themselves. It’d be a surprise to see them part with near-MLB ready arms in a trade to rent Machado for one year. The Brewers are in a similar spot in the sense that while Machado would upgrade over Orlando Arcia, adding pitching is a priority in Milwaukee. Taking a one-year shot on Machado for either Midwest club seems unlikely.
The Mets have plenty of uncertainty in their infield as David Wright and T.J. Rivera both try to return from injuries and Amed Rosario looks to establish himself as a big leaguer. But, New York’s pitching staff was in shambles last season due to injuries, and the depth they once had in the upper levels of the minors has thinned out. It’s tough to see them depleting their supply for a short-term add.
Up in Boston, the Red Sox are known to be looking to add some power to the lineup, but they’re currently penciling Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts in at third and short. Outside of moving Devers across the diamond to first base or a trade of Bogaerts (which some have speculated about but has yet to emerge as a serious possibility), it’s tough to envision that fit. Elsewhere in the AL East, the Blue Jays have their own superstar third baseman in Josh Donaldson with Troy Tulowitzki and Aledmys Diaz in the mix at shortstop.
Everth Cabrera and Khalil Greene are the only two Padres shortstops to post seasons of 3+ fWAR in the past two decades. San Diego has a glaring need at shortstop and a stacked farm system, but it’s still tough to see A.J. Preller depleting the farm he’s built up for a one-year addition of Machado in a year the team has little hope of contending.
Oakland has a steady shortstop in the form of Marcus Semien and will struggle to contend in a stacked AL West division as they wait on their young core to further cement itself in the Majors. The A’s have made some surprise veteran additions in the past and made a serious push for Edwin Encarnacion last offseason, but they’re a substantial reach in this regard.
The Phillies and Braves, too, figure to be oft-mentioned candidates to make a play for Machado. Philadelphia has widely been considered to be a likely pursuer of Machado in free agency, and new Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos has a vacancy at third base and a reputation for making big splashes. But neither team was competitive in 2017, neither seems likely to push past the Nationals atop the division and both would be changing course somewhat from rebuilds by flipping long-term talent for short-term gain.
Out of the Picture
Teams that are just embarking on lengthy rebuilds and/or face significant payroll restrictions can more or less be ruled out entirely. The Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Rays and Pirates don’t seem possible by almost any stretch of the imagination. (And, clearly, there’s been some imagination stretching in some of the above-portrayed scenarios.) The Reds and White Sox are further along in the rebuilding process than Detroit, Kansas City or Miami, but neither club makes sense as an ultimate landing spot. The Diamondbacks have a weak farm with several infield options on the left side already, and they’re up against a rather substantial payroll crunch that could make Machado’s $17MM+ salary difficult to stomach.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Orioles Notes: Machado, Rule 5 Draft, Relievers, Catching, Pena
It remains unlikely that the Orioles will trade Manny Machado at all, and while the Phillies certainly have interest in the star third baseman, they know they’re probably not an ideal fit if the O’s did shop Machado, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman tweets. With Machado only under contract through the 2018 season, it doesn’t make sense for the rebuilding Phillies to make a move for him right now. As NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury notes, the Phils could just wait until next winter to pursue Machado in free agency. That way, he costs just money, whereas trying to trade for him now would cost both money (if a contract extension can be worked out) and several prospects.
Some more rumblings out of Camden Yards…
- Speaking of a link between the Orioles and Phillies, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes that Baltimore could consider Phillies left-handed pitching prospect Austin Davis in Thursday’s Rule 5 Draft. A 12th-round pick in the 2014 amateur draft, Davis has a 3.07 ERA, 8.7 K/9 and 2.71 K/BB rate over 228 2/3 minor league innings, none above the Double-A level. The O’s have frequently mined the Rule 5 Draft for young talent, including taking both Anthony Santander and Aneury Tavarez last year.
- Davis could fit the Orioles’ desire for another southpaw option in the bullpen. Team executive VP Dan Duquette told Kubatko and other reporters that a hard-throwing lefty reliever is “on our radar” as an offseason need. With Zach Britton closing, the Orioles’ other left-handed pen options include Richard Bleier and Donnie Hart, both of whom “are more finesse from the left side,” Duquette said. Kubatko figures Bleier is a good bet for a bullpen job in 2018, so Hart could be Triple-A depth if the Orioles did get another southpaw.
- The O’s want to add a veteran to their catching mix of Caleb Joseph, Chance Sisco and Austin Wynns. Duquette said the team had interest in re-signing catcher Francisco Pena but revealed that “he’s going to sign with somebody else.” Pena only appeared in 19 MLB games for Baltimore over the last two seasons, though was held in high regard as a depth option due to his strong defense. Pena was designated for assignment and outrighted off the Orioles’ roster three times in 2017, and he became a free agent after the season.
- Minor league left-handers Keegan Akin and Alex Wells have both received trade interest from other teams, Duquette said (hat tip to PressBoxOnline.com’s Rich Dubroff). Akin and Wells respectively ranked 8th and 16th on MLB.com’s list of the top 30 Orioles prospects; Baseball America recently cited Wells as owning the best control of any pitcher in the farm system, though neither he or Akin made BA’s list of top 10 Baltimore minor leaguers. The O’s aren’t considered to be particularly deep in young talent, particularly on the pitching side, so it would be a little surprising to see them part with Akin or Wells unless they can get very good value for either southpaw.
Trade Chatter: Machado, Phils, Yanks, Bucs, Cole, Ellsbury, Tigers, Brewers
Should the Orioles decide to trade superstar third baseman Manny Machado prior to 2018, his contract year, they could find a taker in Philadelphia. The Phillies are among “the more interested parties” in Machado, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports. The Orioles have studied the Phillies’ farm system in the event of a deal, and they now “covet” right-hander Sixto Sanchez (Baseball America’s 61st-best prospect), per Kubatko. Second base prospect Scott Kingery and major league shortstop Freddy Galvis could also be involved in a potential trade, Kubatko writes. But a swap would require a 72-hour window for the Phillies to extend the 25-year-old Machado, according to Kubatko, and hammering out an agreement could be a tall order given that he’s so close to hitting the open market.
More of the latest trade chatter:
- The Yankees reportedly came away from talks with the Pirates with the impression that they won’t move righty Gerrit Cole. However, the Pirates are at least willing to listen to offers for Cole, per Buster Olney of ESPN (Twitter link). The Yankees and Bucs match up well for a potential Cole trade, sources tell Olney, who notes that Bombers general manager Brian Cashman and the Pirates’ Neal Huntington have swung plenty of deals in the past.
- In the wake of the Giancarlo Stanton acquisition, the Yankees are loaded with outfielders. Although that seems to be bad news for Jacoby Ellsbury, who’s toward the bottom of the Yankees’ current outfield depth chart, he’s still “unlikely” to waive his no-trade clause, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets. The belief is that the Yankees would eat roughly half of the $68MM to jettison Ellsbury, according to Jon Heyman of FanRag, but it could be a moot point if he’s unwilling to go anywhere. And Cashman said Monday that Ellsbury “has a spot on the roster” and “will compete to take his job back,” Alex Speier of the Boston Globe relays (Twitter link). On the other hand, if the Yankees make 23-year-old outfielder Clint Frazier available, the Athletics would unquestionably have interest, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports (via Twitter). However, the price to acquire Frazier would likely be too high, Slusser adds.
- The Tigers expect to deal second baseman Ian Kinsler, GM Al Avila told Evan Woodbery of MLive.com and other reporters (Twitter link). Meanwhile, they’ve gotten “mild inquiries” on arguably their most valuable trade chip – righty Michael Fulmer – but they’re not actively shopping him (via Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press, on Twitter). “There are a handful of teams out there that have the players to do it, but we have not come close to those conversations,” Avila said of a potential Fulmer trade (Twitter link via Jason Beck of MLB.com).
- While the Brewers are listening to offers for outfielder Domingo Santana, there’s not a lot of traction in trade talks, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN tweets. The Brewers want “an affordable impact starter” for Santana, Crasnick suggests. GM David Stearns told reporters Monday that “if we’re going to even consider trading someone who is such an important part of our team, we are going to expect a sizable return” (via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, on Twitter).
Latest On Corner Infield Market
There are quite a few moving pieces on the market for corner infielders, so it’s conceivable that things could go in any number of different directions. At this point, it’s not even clear when or where the first dominoes will fall. Here’s the latest:
- Fresh off of a non-tender by the Braves, first baseman Matt Adams has drawn interest from a few organizations, according to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com (via Twitter). Specifically, the Indians, Royals, and Nationals have all reached out to Adams’s representatives. While Cleveland and Kansas City could offer fairly significant roles to the left-handed hitter — who really is best utilized in a platoon capacity — the Nats unsurprisingly would consider him as a frequently used bench piece who might take some of the burden from Ryan Zimmerman. Atlanta was not able to find a taker for Adams before the tender deadline; he had projected to earn $4.6MM via arbitration, so it’d be surprising if he ended up receiving more than that on the open market. For the Indians, it seems, adding a player such as Adams would represent something of a “fallback,” as Crasnick terms it, if the team is unable to strike a new deal with Carlos Santana. MLBTR’s Kyle Downing just analyzed Santana’s free agent case and we have also rounded up the latest market chatter on one of the market’s top bats.
- Having missed out on Giancarlo Stanton, the Cardinals are now scanning the rest of the market for offensive upgrades. Jon Heyman of Fan Rag looks at the team’s possible options, including free agents Eric Hosmer and J.D. Martinez. He notes that several upper-echelon third basemen might hold appeal on the trade market — which will come as little surprise to those that have followed the Cards’ trade rumblings for the last several months. Of course, it’s still unclear whether the Blue Jays (Josh Donaldson), Rays (Evan Longoria), or Orioles (Manny Machado) will make their stars available.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post tackles that subject, discussing the relative likelihood that any of those three will be shopped. And Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times addresses things from the Rays’ perspective, reporting that Longoria has not been given any indication from the organization about their plans. While he says he hopes to remain in Tampa Bay, he also acknowledges he could be “somewhere in limbo.” If a trade comes to pass, says Longoria, “I suppose my family and I will adjust.”
- The top free agent third baseman, of course, is Mike Moustakas. His market is still taking shape, but the Angels have (as expected) engaged with his camp to some degree, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports (Twitter links). That said, there’s no indication of momentum. From an outside perspective, it also seems less likely that the Halos would line up on Moustakas after landing Shohei Ohtani. Even less likely is Logan Morrison, though Fletcher adds that he’s also still on the radar.
- Hosmer and Martinez are conceivably also targets for the Red Sox, as are Santana and others. As Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes, the organization has engaged agent Scott Boras on both players; perhaps unsurprisingly, he also suggests that Boras is pitching Boston on signing the pair in a bold move to revamp its lineup. Interestingly, Cafardo also says that Hosmer’s former club, the Royals, once reached an internal assessment that Hosmer could swat forty long balls annually at Fenway. Of course, the notoriously heavy groundball hitter has never launched more than 25 in a given season (that’s a mark he reached in each of the last two campaigns).
Heyman’s Latest: Ohtani, Machado, Cards, Pads, Hosmer, Ellsbury
It’s possible that Shohei Ohtani could make his decision on where to sign “by early next week,” according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). That gives us an idea of a potential timeline, though there’s still plenty of wiggle room.
Here’s more from Heyman on a variety of subjects:
- The Orioles have been receiving calls on third baseman Manny Machado, writes Heyman. While the O’s aren’t shopping Machado and don’t wish to move him, Heyman notes that Baltimore is also willing to at least entertain offers on any of its players, even Machado. Presumably, it’d take a staggeringly high offer to convince the O’s to part with Machado even in spite of the fact that he’s just a year removed from free agency. The Orioles have reportedly been pursuing upgrades in their rotation all winter as they seek to bolster their club for one more run with Machado, closer Zach Britton and center fielder Adam Jones at the forefront of their roster. Heyman notes that the O’s are also having internal discussions about whether to try for a Machado extension, though doing so would likely require a precedent-setting deal for the 25-year-old superstar, as Machado currently projects to hit free agency at the abnormally young age of 26.
- Sticking with the Orioles, Heyman says in his weekly notes post that the Rockies (previously reported) and Cardinals are among the teams that have shown some interest in Britton. It seems reasonable to suspect that Britton is more readily available than is Machado, given that Baltimore went well down the line on a possible deadline deal for the lefty. But that doesn’t mean the team will simply accept the top bid; in all likelihood, prying him loose will mean meeting the O’s asking price.
- Some around the game believe the Cardinals could at least consider trading outfielder Dexter Fowler, Heyman adds. St. Louis would only do so, he suggests, if they were able to move most of the salary. That seems mostly reasonable to expect, given that Fowler posted a sturdy .264/.363/.488 slash with a career-high 18 long balls in his first season with the Cards. As for whether a trade is likely, that seems dubious. Fowler has a no-trade clause and sounds like he is settling in nicely in St. Louis. And president of baseball operations John Mozeliak kicked off the offseason by telling Fowler he wasn’t planning on trading him.
- There’s more indication that the Padres are fairly serious about going after Eric Hosmer, says Heyman. He also reported yesterday that first baseman Wil Myers would be amenable to moving to the outfield to make way for Hosmer to play at first. Of course, whether the Pads are really willing to hand out a big enough contract to get a deal done remains to be seen.
- At shortstop, the Padres have taken a look at Phillies veteran Freddy Galvis, says Heyman. The team is also weighing free agent Alcides Escobar. Either would seemingly make sense as a stop-gap option for the rebuilding club.
- The Angels are looking harder at second basemen and first basemen than they are at the hot corner, says Heyman. It seems, then, that the club feels fairly content with Luis Valbuena taking the bulk of the time at third, though perhaps that could change depending upon what opportunities arise over the winter — and whether or not the team lands Ohtani. At second, the Halos have at last “looked at” Neil Walker, who’s said to be asking for three or four years.
- The Mets have taken looks at free agent first basemen Mitch Moreland and Adam Lind, relays Heyman. With 22-year-old Dominic Smith in place, Heyman suggests the Mets may opt for a short-term first base option with outfield experience. Both Moreland and Lind check those boxes, though Heyman notes that the Mets are unlikely to sign the former.
- Yankees center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury is slated to serve as a reserve yet again next season, but he’d like to remain with the club, per Heyman. Ellsbury’s full no-trade clause and the nearly $70MM left on his contract (including a $5MM buyout in 2021) figure to make dealing the 34-year-old a rather tall order for the Yanks.
AL East Notes: Sabathia, Yankees, Longoria, Cards, Rays, Orioles
The Yankees were recently in contact with C.C. Sabathia, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link). The southpaw said after the season that he hoped to return to the Bronx, and it was widely assumed that Sabathia was something of a backup plan for the Yankees if the club missed out on landing Shohei Ohtani. New York did check in with Sabathia, as per Heyman, even before today’s news broke that the Yankees wouldn’t be receiving a meeting with Ohtani and his representatives. Sabathia is both a well-respected veteran and he’s been a quietly-effective innings-eater over the last few seasons, so on paper, he could be seen as the favorite for the Yankees’ fifth starter job at this point in the offseason.
Some more rumblings from around the AL East…
- Evan Longoria‘s name hasn’t been “seriously involved” in any trade discussions between the Rays and Cardinals, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets, though Morosi says to “stay tuned” should the Cards fail to land Giancarlo Stanton. St. Louis has been known to be looking for an impact bat this winter and will likely explore several alternatives if they come up short in their pursuit of Stanton, so it makes sense that the Cardinals could expand their talks with the Rays about Alex Colome to also include Longoria. Obstacles to a deal, however, include the $86MM Longoria is owed through the 2022 season, his age (32), and the fact that he is coming off his worst offensive season (.312 wOBA, 96 wRC+).
- The Rays will be heavily counting on internal arms to fill several holes in the bullpen, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. The club has already parted ways with Brad Boxberger, Xavier Cedeno, and Chase Whitley, and Tommy Hunter, Sergio Romo, and Steve Cishek are free agents. This opens the door for several young pitchers to win relief jobs, or starters that don’t make the rotation could be used in the pen. “While we want to make sure we have a stable group, we also want to ensure we are giving every opportunity to those guys to realize their upside,” senior VP of baseball operations Chaim Bloom said.
- A poor season could lead to the Orioles dealing some veterans at the trade deadline and a possible rebuild, though BaltimoreBaseball.com’s Dan Connolly doubts that the team would embark on a total scorched-earth rebuild a la the Astros or Cubs. It’s also probably unlikely that a struggling O’s team would even deal impending free agent Manny Machado (barring an impossible-to-refuse offer) at the deadline due to Peter Angelos’ philosophy that “the season-ticket holders paid to see a certain team and weakening that promised product in-season is disingenuous.”
- Also from Connolly’s mailbag piece, he doesn’t see the Orioles landing any of the top arms in the free agent market, so the club could check into acquiring a highly-paid pitcher coming off a down season. The O’s likely wouldn’t have to give up much minor league talent in return, plus the other team would probably be covering at least some of the pitcher’s contract. A bad contract swap could also be a consideration, as the O’s could help make up the salaries by dealing one of their own expensive players that might no longer be a fit — Connolly cites Mark Trumbo as a prime candidate in this scenario. This wouldn’t be a perfect fit to solve Baltimore’s pitching woes, though it would at least re-direct some funds towards the Orioles’ pressing need in the rotation.
Dan Duquette Discusses Orioles’ Offseason Plans
Orioles executive VP Dan Duquette held an interesting discussion on 105.7 The Fan today, as Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com documents. Pitching is, of course, still the key to the winter. Duquette talked about his desire to add at least one lefty to the rotation. He also indicated a need to be “resourceful” in adding arms. There’s plenty more to unpack from the interview and it’s well worth reading through the full story. Here are a few of the highlights:
- Broadly, Duquette suggested there isn’t much appetite in the organization to embark upon a rebuild. “We still have a pretty good core group,” he said. “And I’ve got to tell you, that rebuilding, that’s not very much fun.” Duquette did credit other organizations for making good choices when they did undergo a full teardown, but said he’d rather deal with the challenges of remaining competitive year-in, year-out. “[F]rankly, I’d just as soon draft late and have a good ballclub and do as good as we can with the players that we have,” said Duquette. Many outside observers have suggested it’s time for the Orioles to think about prioritizing the future, particularly with a few key players entering their walk years. But the club is heavily invested in a few big names for the future — Chris Davis, in particular — and understandably is hesitant to give up a chance at putting together a competitive roster now even if it means foregoing an opportunity to gather up significant prospects. And it’s fair to note that a mid-season pivot is always a fallback possibility.
- One major element of the team’s long-term plans, of course, is star third baseman Manny Machado, who’s set to reach the open market at the end of the 2018 season. Duquette says that the O’s have to decide “this offseason” whether Machado is “going to be a long-term fixture in [the team’s] lineup.” Of course, even if the team decides to make a real effort at striking a big new contract, they’ll face an uphill battle to convince Machado to sign on for a palatable rate. The 25-year-old was not at his best in 2017, but still managed to hit more than thirty home runs for the third-straight season and is widely viewed as one of the game’s most talented overall players. Machado certainly does not need to give up his shot at the open market to secure significant earnings; he played for $11.5MM last year and MLBTR projects that he’ll cost $17.3MM through arbitration for the season to come.
- Closer Zach Britton was understandably a key topic of conversation, as his trade availability has arisen early in the offseason after the O’s explored talks over the summer. Duquette says he thinks it’s likely that Britton will remain with the organization to open the 2018 campaign, though he said “there’s a lot of interest in him” and acknowledged that the organization “was looking at some options around the trade deadline” involving Britton. All said, the take-away seems to be that Baltimore remains willing to discuss its star reliever but also isn’t exactly aching to move him. The central issues for the Orioles, with regard to Britton, seems to be resource allocation and risk. If he can return to his 2016 levels of dominance, he’d be a screaming bargain at his projected arb salary of $12.2MM. But his contract rights could be turned into other useful assets and his payroll space allocated to other areas of need. And it’s at least arguable that other organizations are better equipped to take on the uncertainty that arose during Britton’s injury-limited, less-than-stellar 2017 campaign.
- There was some chatter yesterday that the Orioles could be looking into a long-term deal with second baseman Jonathan Schoop, who had a big 2017 campaign. But even as he cited one source that indicated contract talks had begun, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi shortly thereafter cited another to deny that “anything of substance” had yet occurred (Twitter links). Duquette further downplayed that idea, at least in the near term. While he credited Schoop and said the team would “love to have him for the best part of his career,” Duquette also said that a long-term deal is “a conversation for another day.” Of course, many extension talks occur during Spring Training, and this could still be a matter to be revisited, but it certainly sounds as if there are no immediate plans for a push. Schoop is yet another player who is about to receive a big arb payout — we project him at $9.1MM — which reduces the team’s leverage with two seasons to go until Schoop qualifies for free agency.
Gammons’ Latest: Cobb, Machado, Maitan, Braves, Swihart
According to “industry consensus,” Alex Cobb‘s free agent market will come down to a battle between the Cubs and Yankees, Peter Gammons writes in his newest entry at GammonsDaily.com. Chicago’s interest in Cobb (which is apparently mutual) is already known, and such other teams as the Phillies, Orioles, and Blue Jays have also been linked to Cobb on the rumor mill, though New York would seem like something of a surprise candidate. Since Cobb is expected to land a pricey multi-year deal, it would be difficult for the Yankees to sign the right-hander and stay under the luxury tax threshold, unless the team was able to unload another big contract or two off its books. Starting pitching also doesn’t appear to be a critical need for the Yankees, as while a variety of young arms are battling for the fifth starter’s role, signing a more inexpensive veteran (or bringing back C.C. Sabathia) would seem like a likelier move than making a big splash to sign Cobb.
Here’s more from Gammons…
- Orioles officials are debating whether or not to move Manny Machado to shortstop next season. While Machado is a free agent next winter, incumbent shortstop Tim Beckham may also not be the long-term answer at the position, as his scorching-hot first month with the O’s doesn’t erase other concerns about his overall offensive and defensive capability. Given that Machado himself would reportedly prefer to move from third base to his original minor league position, it doesn’t seem like the O’s would meet with any resistance from the star infielder if they decided on the move. Machado has been one of baseball’s best defensive third basemen but he has also displayed an above-average glove (5.4 UZR/150, +2 Defensive Runs Saved) over 433 career innings at short. A position shift would greatly alter Baltimore’s offseason plans and put them in line to seek out third base help, perhaps even a top free agent like Mike Moustakas or Todd Frazier. The O’s could also aim lower and simply look for a platoon partner to join Beckham at the hot corner.
- The Braves “expect to lose” prized prospect Kevin Maitan as part of MLB’s investigation into the team’s alleged violations of international and domestic amateur signing rules, Gammons hear from a source within the Atlanta organization. Interestingly, the feeling within the new Braves front office (now led by new GM Alex Anthopoulos) is that “Maitan was [not] worth the money or the hype,” so losing him wouldn’t be a major setback for the farm system. Maitan signed for a $4.25MM bonus at the opening of the 2016-17 July 2 international signing period, and he hit .241/.290/.340 in his first pro season, receiving 176 PA in rookie ball. Despite those unimpressive numbers, Maitan came into the season as a consensus top-100 prospect in baseball and is still just 17 years old — even if the new Braves decision-makers weren’t keen on Maitan, they’d still be losing a significant trade chip if the league did indeed void his contract with the team.
- Some Red Sox officials want to try Blake Swihart out at second base, as the team will be looking for help at the keystone with Dustin Pedroia sidelined for at least the first two months of the season. Boston has already been exploring the idea of using Swihart in a superutility role, as he is regarded as a good enough athlete to handle first base, third base, left field, and his former position of catcher. Perhaps most importantly for Swihart’s future, the former top prospect tells Gammons that he has “felt the best I’ve felt in two years” and seems fully recovered from the ankle injuries that stalled his development.
AL Rumors: Indians, Orioles, Machado, Red Sox
While it’s unclear if any deals will materialize, a slew of Indians drew trade interest at this month’s general managers meetings, according to Terry Pluto of cleveland.com. Specifically, teams inquired about a few Indians pitchers – including right-handers Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger – as well as catchers Roberto Perez and Yan Gomes. Clubs also approached the Tribe about a couple less heralded members of the organization in outfielder Greg Allen and minor league righty Shane Bieber, Pluto adds. Of those players, it’s clear Carrasco would warrant the largest return, but there’s no reason for the Indians to move him. Conversely, the Tribe would be open to dealing either Perez or Gomes, Pluto suggests, considering the team has high-end prospect Francisco Mejia waiting in the wings behind those two.
More from a pair of other American League cities:
- The Orioles will wait until later in the offseason to discuss extensions with third baseman Manny Machado and center fielder Adam Jones, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com relays. Kubatko doesn’t expect an extension for Machado to come to fruition, which isn’t surprising given that he’s primed sign a mega-deal on the open market a year from now. Interestingly, though, Kubatko hears that Machado would prefer to play shortstop instead of third base, which could make a potential trip to free agency all the more intriguing. Machado logged 52 appearances at short between 2015-16 but has otherwise played the hot corner since debuting in 2012.
- Closer Zach Britton, another high-profile Oriole entering a contract year, likely wouldn’t bring back a great return via trade this offseason, Buster Olney of ESPN.com observes. While the Orioles are open to trading Britton, his lack of team control, high salary (a projected $12.2MM in arbitration) and recent arm problems figure to tamp down his value, Olney writes. Still, whether it’s Britton, Darren O’Day or Brad Brach, Baltimore seems poised to move one of its most established relievers and use the money it saves on much-needed starting pitching help, per Olney.
- More from Olney, who reports that the Red Sox and three-time World Series-winning manager Tony La Russa discussed having him serve as rookie skipper Alex Cora’s bench coach. Instead, Boston hired La Russa as a special assistant to president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and replaced previous bench coach Gary DiSarcina with Ron Roenicke. La Russa, 73, hasn’t been part of a coaching staff since he managed the Cardinals to a title in 2011.
Crasnick’s Latest: Stanton, Ohtani, JDM, Darvish, Royals, McCutchen
In this year’s edition of his annual Hot Stove survey (an always-excellent read), ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick surveyed 40 front office execs and scouts from around the league on nine offseason issues as this week’s GM Meetings kick off. Among the topics discussed, at length, are the possibility of a Giancarlo Stanton trade (and his likeliest destination), where Japanese star Shohei Ohtani will land, how much J.D. Martinez can command in free agency, and whether Yu Darvish‘s poor World Series showing hampered his free-agent stock. Crasnick also polled the 40 baseball ops/scouting minds on multiple groups of free agents and trade candidates, asking which will provide the most value and which are likeliest to be dealt.
If you follow the offseason even loosely, you’ll want to be sure to read through the entire column, which is packed with quotes and insight from general managers, scouts and other front-office executives on the players in question and their potential landing spots. Some abbreviated highlights…
- Three quarters of the respondents indicated that they expect Stanton to be traded this offseason, with nearly a third listing the Cardinals as the likeliest landing spot. The Giants were the second-most popular spot, though one scout tells Crasnick he has a difficult time envisioning that match, calling the Giants a “bottom-five farm system.” One respondent who felt Stanton would stay in Miami suggests to Crasnick that the Marlins may be underestimating just how much of the contract they’ll need to pay down.
- The Yankees and Dodgers split the vote on the surveyed group’s likeliest destinations for Ohtani, with the Rangers not far behind. Several other clubs received a few votes, and four of the 40 respondents suggested that they believed Ohtani would remain with the Nippon Ham Fighters in 2018. There’s still some work to be done with the league, the players’ union and Nippon Professional Baseball before the posting process can begin in earnest. The agreement between MLB and NPB on the current iteration of the posting system expired this offseason.
- The Red Sox were the overwhelming favorite when it came to the question of Martinez’s next team, though expectations for his contract varied in size. One GM pegged Martinez at around six years and $140MM, Crasnick notes. Some execs felt he’d fall closer to Justin Upton’s $106MM guarantee.
- Only three of the 40 respondents thought that Darvish’s pair of World Series meltdowns would have a substantial impact on his offseason earning capacity. Crasnick’s piece has plenty of insightful quotes on Darvish — more than any other player — from the scouts that were polled. An AL scout tells Crasnick that 15 years ago, the World Series might’ve hurt Darvish, but in a largely sabermetric environment, his late struggles are a “void blip in the radar.”
- Crasnick also asked respondents which of the Royals‘ big three free agents (Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain) would provide the best value on his next deal, which of Carlos Gomez or Carlos Gonzalez had a better chance of reestablishing himself as a star, and which major 2018-19 free agent among Andrew McCutchen, Josh Donaldson and Manny Machado is likeliest to be traded this winter. I found it somewhat of a surprise to see Hosmer as the decisive favorite in that Royals question, though many scouts praised his glovework despite poor reviews from defensive metrics. McCutchen, less surprisingly, was deemed likeliest of his trio to go, while Gonzalez topped Gomez handily in their own respective face-off.