Manny Machado

AL East Notes: Warren, Orioles, Hernandez

By Steve Adams | September 28, 2017 at 6:34pm CDT

The Yankees plan to activate right-hander Adam Warren from the disabled list tomorrow, manager Joe Girardi told reporters (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch). While the Yanks have a plenty formidable ’pen even without Warren thanks to the presence of Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle and Chad Green, Warren’s return will bring yet another high-quality arm to the Bronx on the eve of the postseason. In 56 1/3 innings in his first full season back with the Yankees, Warren has averaged 8.5 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9 with a 44.3 percent ground-ball rate en route to a 2.40 ERA.

A bit more out of the AL East…

MLB.com’s Britt Ghiroli runs down a number of questions facing the Orioles this offseason, including their oft-discussed Manny Machado dilemma (if one can even call it that; the O’s have given no indication that they’d even consider parting with the soon-to-be free agent on the offseason trade market). However, while they haven’t signaled a willingness to trade Machado, Ghiroli also writes that there’s yet to be any indication that the Orioles will try to lock him up on a long-term deal. Ghiroli also addresses needs in the rotation, balancing an “all or nothing” lineup and determining which young stars are certain future pieces for the team.
The Blue Jays aren’t expected to retain longtime right fielder Jose Bautista this offseason, writes Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com, making young Teoscar Hernandez’s huge September showing all the more important. Hernandez’s biggest obstacle, to date, has been his lack of plate discipline with the Jays. However, he’s drawn a pair of walks in his past couple of games, and manager John Gibbons said he’s been encouraged by a more measured approach to Hernandez’s plate appearances. “I’ve noticed a big change in his aggression at the plate,” said the skipper. “He’s still an aggressive hitter, but he’s not up there swinging at everything, which is key.” Hernandez is Toronto’s “most realistic” internal candidate to take over an everyday corner outfield spot in 2018, per Chisholm. Hernandez is hitting .282/.313/.667 with eight homers in just 83 plate appearances for the Jays since being called up earlier this month.

Orioles Do Not Intend To Trade Manny Machado This Offseason

By Jeff Todd | September 21, 2017 at 11:45am CDT

It has long been wondered just how long the Orioles would manage to keep their best player, superstar third baseman Manny Machado. As the team begins looking ahead to the offseason, his long-term status in Baltimore remains an open question. What’s clear, though, according to a report from Jon Heyman of Fan Rag, is that the O’s won’t look to deal Machado in advance of the 2018 season.

That’s not all that surprising to hear at this point, as all signs from Baltimore have been that the organization will try to regroup and contend next year. But it’s nevertheless notable, as it would appear to take Machado out of serious trade consideration and also position the Orioles as a team that will look to add veteran talent over the offseason.

The Orioles will face quite a few roster questions. In particular, a dreadful performance from the bulk of the rotation will leave the club scrambling to fill a few openings. Doing so in a financially feasible way looks like quite the challenge.

While the organization has only $64MM or so in dedicated payroll for the coming season, that doesn’t include the massive arbitration outlay — Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Kevin Gausman, Zach Britton, and Brad Brach will be expensive — that will surely push the club past $100MM. That probably leaves room to add some salary for starters, but the team will surely be wary of commitments that extend past 2018. Machado, Britton, Brach, and Adam Jones will be free agents and the O’s have already committed quite a lot of cash to underperforming sluggers Mark Trumbo and Chris Davis.

So, could the club look to keep its core intact for a longer stretch by pursuing a new deal with Machado? Per Heyman, it’s not yet clear whether the Orioles will make such an attempt in earnest. The sides were fairly close in prior extension talks, though clearly the situation is quite a bit different now. Machado, who only just turned 25, is one of the game’s very best players and will be just one year away from a potential open-market bonanza. From an outside perspective, it remains difficult to imagine a deal coming together.

Cafardo’s Latest: Machado, Nunez, Red Sox, Giants, Moose

By Connor Byrne | September 9, 2017 at 12:23pm CDT

The Orioles may have to shop superstar third baseman Manny Machado in the offseason if there’s no hope of reaching a long-term deal with the 25-year-old, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe contends. General manager Dan Duquette revealed that the Orioles have made at least two attempts to lock up Machado and will likely try again, per Cafardo. However, given that a historic payday could await Machado in free agency after next season, it’s difficult to imagine him eschewing a chance to shop his services around the league. While Machado’s numbers this year aren’t quite up to par with his spectacular 2015-16 output, he has gone on a second-half tear and is enjoying his third straight 30-home run season.

Orioles’ Owner Gives Approval To Explore Trades Of Relievers, Smith

By Mark Polishuk | July 18, 2017 at 6:55pm CDT

JULY 18: Rosenthal now reports (via Twitter) that Angelos has indeed given Duquette his approval to explore trades involving the team’s top relievers as well as Smith.

JULY 16: As long as Orioles ownership approves, executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette has told other teams that he is open to trading three of his top relievers (Zach Britton, Brad Brach and Darren O’Day) as well as outfielder Seth Smith, Ken Rosenthal reports via his Facebook page.

Also noteworthy in Rosenthal’s report is the list of names the O’s apparently aren’t willing to trade. The club isn’t listening to offers for Manny Machado or Adam Jones, and though Mychal Givens is receiving interest from rival clubs, the O’s also don’t plan on dealing the righty, who is controllable through the 2021 season.

This would indicate that the Orioles aren’t approaching the deadline with an eye towards a full-blown rebuild. Dealing a controllable player like Givens (who is likely being groomed for a larger role should one of the veteran relievers be dealt) or moving cornerstone players like Machado or Jones would imply that Baltimore wasn’t planning on contending in 2018. Instead, the team looks to be attempting to free up some payroll space in the form of pricey relief contacts, and move some excess pieces in the bullpen and bench with an eye towards reloading for next season. With this in mind, Rosenthal opines that Welington Castillo could also be a trade chip, as the catcher can become a free agent this winter if he doesn’t exercise his player option for 2018.

All this trade talk assumes, of course, that Orioles owner Peter Angelos is willing to green-light the proposed deadline moves. Rosenthal points out that Angelos hasn’t permitted his team to make significant trades of veterans at the deadline since 2000, though the O’s are only on the fringes of contention this year. The Orioles entered the day tied with the Blue Jays for fourth place in the AL East with a 42-48 record, 8.5 games out of first place and five games out of a wild card berth.

Britton posted one of the best years of any closer in baseball history in 2016, though he has only pitched 13 innings for Baltimore this season due to a pair of forearm strains. Despite the worrying nature of such injuries, Britton’s track record ensures that he would be a prized commodity at the deadline, with such teams as the Dodgers and Astros already showing some interest.

Britton’s rise to elite closer status has coincided with his arbitration years, as he is playing this season on an $11.4MM salary. Though his injury woes will probably limit the size of his raise in his fourth and final trip through the arb process this winter, Britton still has another $12MM+ salary coming his way in 2018, and there were whispers all winter that the O’s could move Britton and go with a less-expensive option at closer.

Brach, for instance, is only earning $3.05MM this season and is controlled through the 2018 season. This contract situation and Brach’s own strong performance this year as Britton’s replacement at closer has put Brach perhaps even in higher demand than Britton. It probably isn’t likely that both Britton and Brach would be dealt, as the club likely sees one or the other as their closer in 2018.

The veteran O’Day missed some time due to a shoulder strain this year and was hampered by injuries in 2016, though he had continued to post his usual solid numbers when healthy. O’Day has a 3.77 ERA, 11.3 K/9 and 2.79 K/BB rate over 31 frames for Baltimore this year. O’Day is owed $9MM in both 2018 and 2019 and has roughly $3MM remaining salary for this year. The veteran also has a partial no-trade clause in his contract that allows him to block deals to seven teams, so O’Day has some control over his destiny if the Orioles do want to trade him.

Smith was acquired in a trade with the Mariners last winter to boost the Orioles’ left-handed hitting outfield depth, and he has a solid .259/.328/.436 slash line through 244 PA. Trey Mancini has stepped into an everyday corner outfield role, so the O’s could use a platoon of Joey Rickard and Hyun Soo Kim in the other corner spot should Smith be dealt.

Heyman’s Latest: Slow Starters, Dodgers, Braun, O’s, Tigers

By Steve Adams | April 20, 2017 at 8:38pm CDT

FanRag’s Jon Heyman tackles a number of slow-starting teams in the intro to his weekly notes columns, getting the opinions of rival scouts and executives on the slow starts from the Cardinals, Giants, Blue Jays and Rangers. Heyman spoke to Giants GM Bobby Evans on his club’s issues in left field, with Evans conceding, “We don’t have a true left fielder. We’re going to have to mix and match.” Heyman notes that veteran infielder Aaron Hill is expected to get some looks in left field. San Francisco elected to move on from Angel Pagan this offseason and entered the year with a platoon of Jarrett Parker and Chris Marrero in left field, but Parker will now miss significant time following a broken clavicle. And it appears to be too late to turn back to Pagan, who told El Vocero yesterday that he’s planning to sit out the 2017 season to spend time with his wife and children.

Here are some highlights from Heyman’s National League and American League roundups…

There’s “no evidence of any real trade talk” between the Brewers and Dodgers involving Ryan Braun, per Heyman. He notes that the Brewers may feel a slight sense of urgency due to the fact that Braun will achieve 10-and-5 rights on May 24 (thus allowing him full veto power over any trade). The improved production out of Yasiel Puig could make Braun a less appealing target, as Puig himself has the ability to be a dynamic weapon against lefties if he can return to form. Even if Braun does ultimately reach 1o-and-5 status, Heyman notes that the Dodgers are said to be his preferred destination in a trade, so he could very well approve the deal after that point.
Also of note to Dodgers fans, Los Angeles showed interest in right-hander Brad Ziegler this offseason and were willing to discuss something in the range of $12MM over two years. Ziegler, instead, signed with the Marlins for two years and a total of $16MM. To this point, he’s yielded just one run with a 6-to-1 K/BB ratio and a ridiculous 81 percent ground-ball rate through his first eight innings.
Multiple teams inquired with the Brewers about right-hander Wily Peralta this spring, but Milwaukee clearly didn’t find an offer to its liking. “We’re very comfortable having him as part of our rotation,” GM David Stearns tells Heyman. The 27-year-old Peralta has a 2.65 ERA through his first three starts, though his strong work dates back further than Opening Day. While Peralta’s 2016 numbers look pedestrian at best, he posted a 2.92 ERA through 61 1/3 innings after being recalled from a Triple-A demotion early last August. In his past 13 MLB starts, Peralta has a 2.86 ERA with 7.3 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 51.2 percent ground-ball rate. He’s controllable for two seasons beyond the 2017 campaign, and it’s easy to envision him emerging as a trade candidate this summer if he continues to perform anywhere near that level.
J.J. Hardy’s lengthy injury history will make the Orioles unlikely to pick up his $14MM club option at season’s end. However, Heyman adds that even if the O’s do move on from Hardy, they’re not likely to displace Manny Machado from third base given his excellence (and, presumably, his comfort level) at the hot corner. Rather, the team figures to shop for a shortstop next offseason. The 2017-18 free agent crop at shortstop figures to be headlined by Zack Cozart, with alternative options including Eduardo Nunez, Alcides Escobar and Danny Espinosa. Baltimore could, of course, turn to the trade market for some shortstop help as well. Ryan Mountcastle is the team’s top-regarded minor league shortstop, but the 20-year-old former first-rounder opened the season in Class-A Advanced and many scouting reports question his ability to remain at short in the long run.
The Tigers are planning to be “extra cautious” with right fielder J.D. Martinez as he returns from a foot injury, Heyman writes. However, there’s little chance of the Tigers pursuing him as a free agent this offseason due to the fact that the team still intends to trim down its long-term payroll outlook. Re-signing Martinez, who ranked sixth on MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings earlier today, could require another sizable commitment of five or more years if Martinez has a typical season at the plate.

AL East Notes: Machado, Price, Barnes, Rasmus

By Steve Adams | April 10, 2017 at 11:53am CDT

Manny Machado’s capability to play shortstop could impact the Orioles in both the short- and long-term picture, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The 24-year-old Machado will hit the open market following the 2018 season, and he tells Rosenthal that he still thinks about playing his natural position of shortstop even though he’s spent the bulk of his career at third base (and become one of the best defensive third basemen in the game — if not of all-time). Asked about the thought of playing shortstop on a consistent basis, Machado replies: “I’m not going to lie. It’s always been there. … I played a little bit there (last year). That was fun. I trained this year to play there just in case anything happened.” Machado also acknowledges, though, that he’s experienced great success at third base, rhetorically asking, “So why change?”

As Rosenthal notes, the Orioles hold a $14MM option over J.J. Hardy at season’s end, and the ability to move Machado to short could impact their thinking. (Although the option would vest and become guaranteed if Hardy tallies 600 PAs.) Beyond that, though, Rosenthal wonders if Machado would be enticed by the opportunity to play shortstop on an everyday basis when he reaches free agency in the 2018-19 offseason, whether in Baltimore or elsewhere.

A few more notes pertaining to the AL East…

Red Sox left-hander David Price threw a 20-pitch bullpen session today and came away from the workout feeling good, he told reporters (via Chad Jennings of the Boston Herald). The key for the former AL Cy Young winner, however, will be seeing how he feels tomorrow. Price has yet to pitch for the Sox this season after a forearm issue led to a scare during Spring Training and, prior to today, hadn’t thrown off a mound since Feb. 28, Jennings notes. Farrell said that if Price feels strong tomorrow, another mound session would be lined up for Wednesday. There’s still no definitive timeline when it comes to Price’s return, but Jennings notes that he won’t pitch in the Majors until at least May.
In a Red Sox bullpen that has quite a bit of uncertainty throughout its ranks, right-hander Matt Barnes has emerged as the primary setup option for closer Craig Kimbrel, writes Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal. That could change, potentially, when Tyler Thornburg is ready to come off the disabled list, but Barnes’ early showing and the struggles of many of his teammates have him primed for a big role in the Boston ’pen. ““A guy that’s maybe a little bit more seasoned than some others in some of those big spots, he’s going to be a pivotal guy in our bullpen,” said Sox manager John Farrell to MacPherson. The 26-year-old Barnes averaged 9.6 K/9 against 4.2 BB/9 with a 45.6 percent ground-ball rate out of the bullpen last season, and he’s logged a 5-to-1 K/BB ratio through his first 3 2/3 shutout innings in 2017.
Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets that Colby Rasmus’ rehab assignment with the Rays’ Class-A Advanced affiliate in Charlotte is still on hold for a few more days, likely pushing the outfielder’s debut back until next week. Rasmus was involved in an outfield collision in Charlotte last Thursday, as Topkin reported, and while he remained in that game, the team is now proceeding rather cautiously. Topkin also suggests that speedster Mallex Smith will likely head to Triple-A Durham once Rasmus is healthy enough to rejoin the Major League roster. Rasmus, who signed a one-year, $5MM contract with Tampa Bay this winter, is recovering from offseason hip surgery.

Olney’s Latest: Machado, Harper, Tigers, Jays, Giants

By Connor Byrne | March 19, 2017 at 9:17am CDT

Given that Orioles third baseman Manny Machado and Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper are scheduled to reach free agency after the 2018 season, high-payroll teams will spend the next two years deciding the more worthy target, writes Buster Olney of ESPN.com. With that in mind, Olney polled seven evaluators on which potential $400MM player they’d prefer to sign. Six chose Machado, whom the evaluators regard as a more well-rounded player. “Harper gets credit and gets a huge part of his reputation for how far he hits home runs, but they still only count for one run,” one evaluator told Olney. “Machado is an entire field hitter who hits to the situation. He can hammer majestic homers, but can also do other things to help a team win.”

Orioles Notes: Britton, Machado, Worley, Brach, Joseph

By Mark Polishuk | January 28, 2017 at 12:10pm CDT

Here’s the latest from the Orioles’ FanFest event…

Zach Britton and the Orioles haven’t been discussing an extension, though the ace closer tells MLB.com’s Brittany Ghiroli (Twitter link) and other reporters that there is mutual interest between the two sides on working out a new deal. Britton and the O’s avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $11.4MM contract for 2017, and Britton has one more arb year left before entering free agency.
There also haven’t been any extension talks between Manny Machado and the O’s, the star third baseman told reporters, including Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun. Machado reiterated that he hopes to remain with the Orioles and he understands if the club is focusing on other priorities right now rather than open talks. Needless to say, negotiating a Machado extension will be a major task given the huge amount of years and dollars (ten years and $300MM is a ballpark figure) it would take to prevent Machado from hitting free agency at age 26 following the 2018 season.
The Orioles have made a contract offer to right-hander Vance Worley, executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette told reporters (including the Baltimore Sun’s Jon Meoli). Worley was projected to earn $3.3MM in arbitration this winter and was non-tendered by the O’s last month. The righty posted a 3.53 ERA, 5.8 K/9 and 48.1% grounder rate over 86 2/3 innings for Baltimore last season and has value as a long reliever and spot starter, even if the Orioles weren’t keen on meeting his projected price tag.
Duquette also stated (to Eduardo A. Encina and other media) that the Orioles are planning to go to hearings to decide their three unsettled arbitration cases with Kevin Gausman, Brad Brach and Caleb Joseph. Brach and Joseph discussed their takes on the hearing process with MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko, with Brach also talking about his name being mentioned in offseason trade rumors.

Orioles Avoid Arbitration With Britton, Machado, Tillman

By Steve Adams | January 13, 2017 at 1:48pm CDT

1:48pm: The Orioles and Tillman have also avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $10.05MM deal, tweets Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com.

12:20pm: Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun reports that Manny Machado also avoided arb with an $11.5MM deal (Twitter link). That checks in $300K north of his projection from Swartz.

11:11am: The Orioles and superstar closer Zach Britton have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a hefty $11.4MM salary for the 2017 season, reports Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith (on Twitter). The Scott Boras client’s salary is an exact match with the $11.4MM projection of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Britton will be arb-eligible once more next winter before becoming a free agent after the 2018 season.

Britton, 29, is coming off one of the most dominant seasons of any reliever in history. One of the best relievers in baseball (and arguably the best), Britton led the American League in saves with 47 and posted a comically low 0.54 ERA with 9.9 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9 in 67 innings of work. He also posted an outrageous 80 percent ground-ball rate that is the highest mark in Major League history of any qualified starter or reliever dating back to 2002 when the stat was first tracked.

As can be seen in MLBTR’s 2017 Arbitration Tracker, Britton was one of nine Orioles players that’s eligible for arbitration. The team has six players remaining, in the form of Kevin Gausman, Chris Tillman, Brad Brach, Jonathan Schoop, Caleb Joseph and T.J. McFarland.

Arbitration Breakdown: Manny Machado

By Matt Swartz | January 7, 2017 at 10:48pm CDT

Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Manny Machado enters his second year of arbitration eligibility with a $5MM base salary and a strong case for a solid raise. My model projects him to reach $11.2MM, good for a $6.2MM raise, after an All-Star campaign with a .294 batting average, 37 home runs and 96 runs batted in. The model is a useful tool here, and probably came up with a reasonable guess, because so few comparables are appropriate for Machado’s platform year.

Position players like Machado generally receive multi-year deals in lieu of one-year pacts once they reach their second year of arbitration. In the last decade, only 10 players have hit at least .280 and belted 30 homers going into their second year of arbitration eligibility, and a full seven of those 10 received multi-year deals before reaching agreement on a single-year number.

Only two of those cases have occurred since 2007 – Jacoby Ellsbury in 2012 and Chris Davis in 2014. Ellsbury received a $5.65MM raise, while Davis’ salary grew by a full $7.05MM. Both players had better platform years than Machado. Ellsbury hit .321 with 32 home runs, 39 stolen bases and 105 RBI. Davis hit .286 with 53 blasts and knocked in 138. Ellsbury’s case is probably stale, however (it is now five years old), so even though he only received a $5.65MM raise there is reason to expect Machado could eclipse that number. Davis’ case is only three years old, and it’s harder to argue that Machado should get a bigger raise. The model, in fact, does not believe this to be true.

With Ellsbury’s case stale and Davis’ looking more like a ceiling, it makes sense to look for a floor for Machado. But it is difficult to find one. In the last three years, no other second-year-eligible player has received a single-year deal with a raise larger than the $2.77MM that Daniel Murphy received. But Murphy had only clubbed 13 homers and hit .286. While he had stolen 23 bases, he only knocked in 78 runs. Clearly Machado should get a far larger raise than Murphy.

Going back further, Hunter Pence in 2011 is a longshot possibility for a floor. He received a $3.4MM raise after posting a .282/25/91 line. Pence’s case was clearly inferior, and the six-year gap between his case and Machado’s certainly makes him a floor.

It’s clear that Machado is likely to earn less than Davis’ $7.05MM raise, but he’s also likely to get more than Pence’s $3.4MM increase. There is an argument that Machado should earn less than Ellsbury’s $5.65MM raise, but given the five-year lag between the two cases, that may not be applicable anyway. I suspect that the model’s $6.2MM projected raise is as a reasonable of an estimate as we can expect for Machado’s unique situation. It falls short of Davis, but with Machado playing better defense at a harder position, he probably will not fall all that far short despite the significant gap in power numbers.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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