Martin Perez

The Rangers sit seven games back in the Wild Card race, sporting a 42-49 record. While they’ve outscored opponents by seven runs on the year and have shown some signs of progress after back-to-back last place finishes, they’re unlikely to reach the postseason in 2022. Impending free agents on non-playoff teams are straightforward trade candidates at every trade deadline, making a Martín Pérez swap viable on paper.

However, both the left-hander and Texas general manager Chris Young have expressed a desire to extend their relationship beyond this season. Talks have not yet gotten underway, but the mutual interest in a long-term contract could keep the Rangers from flipping him to a contender. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes that Pérez is indeed “unlikely to be traded” this summer. Grant suggests the sides could delay the start of extension talks until after the August 2 trade deadline in recognition of the front office’s more pressing need to address other trade possibilities before circling back to try to hammer out an extension next month.

For the front office to forgo the opportunity to deal Pérez this summer before even opening extension talks with his representatives, they’d have to be confident in their ability to work out a long-term deal. Whether the qualifying offer system will remain in place is to be determined over the coming days — the union and league have until next Monday to agree on an international draft that would eliminate the QO — but Pérez would be a longshot QO candidate anyhow. While he’s fresh off a first career All-Star selection and owns a sparkling 2.68 ERA through 111 innings this season, he’d allowed more than four earned runs per nine in each season between 2014-21. He’s demonstrated strong control and induced lofty ground-ball rates, but he’s still missing bats and striking batters out at a lower than average rate.

If the club doesn’t (or is unable to) issue him a QO, Texas would run the risk of losing Pérez for nothing in free agency (barring some other form of draft compensation under a new system attached to the international draft). At the same time, the veteran hurler has gone on record a few times in recent weeks about his desire to stick in Arlington. It’s understandable if Young and president of baseball operations Jon Daniels are bullish on their chances of keeping him around beyond 2022.

It could be an interesting deadline in general for the Rangers, as if the intent is to keep Perez, they’re lacking in obvious trade candidates despite their record and long-shot playoff odds. Rental relievers like Matt Moore and Garrett Richards could be available — Richards has struggled of late but was quite sharp until his past two appearances — but the majority of the Texas roster seems likely to remain in place. If anything, given the team’s desire to push into a win-now mindset and return to contention as soon as 2023, the Rangers could look to gear up for that post-2022 run and add pieces that are controllable beyond the current season, much as they did over the winter when inking Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray to long-term deals.

With less than two weeks until the trade deadline, the Rangers will have to make a decision on how to proceed with Martín Pérez. Signed to a one-year deal over the offseason, the left-hander is an impending free agent on a team that currently sits 7 1/2 games out of a playoff spot. That makes him a fairly obvious trade candidate, although both the hurler and Texas general manager Chris Young have expressed interest in working out an extension.

Pérez reiterated his interest when speaking with Robert Murray of FanSided, but he indicated that talks had yet to get underway. “We haven’t talked anything about an extension,” Pérez told Murray. “I signed with Texas again. That was my home for a long time. I feel great there. But I don’t know what their plans are. … I’d like to stay. It’s the same when you go back home and you always want to stay.”

As he suggested, Pérez is plenty familiar with the organization. He began his career as a Ranger, developing into one of the game’s top pitching prospects and reaching the majors for the first time in 2012. He spent six-plus seasons in Arlington before heading to Minnesota in advance of the 2019 campaign. After a year with the Twins and two seasons with the Red Sox, he returned to his original stomping grounds on a buy-low $4MM deal coming out of the lockout.

The Rangers have gotten well beyond their money’s worth on that pact. Pérez pitched his way to the All-Star Game for the first time, tossing 111 innings of 2.68 ERA ball through 18 starts. He hasn’t posted an ERA below 4.00 in any season since 2013, but he appears on his way to achieving that mark this year. That should draw him some attention from pitching-needy contenders over the next couple weeks, particularly given the underwhelming recent runs from some of the other rental arms available.

That said, it’s unlikely that rival teams will view Pérez as the middle or top of the rotation arm that sterling ERA would suggest. He owns a career-best strikeout percentage, but it’s still a couple ticks below average at 20.7%. This year’s 8.4% swinging strike rate isn’t much different than his marks of prior seasons. He’s inducing ground-balls at a greater than 51% clip, but he’s done so in years past without the same kind of run prevention success. Indeed, a minuscule 6.7% home run per fly ball rate looks to be a key catalyst for his better results. A pitcher’s home run rate tends to fluctuate, and clubs will surely be skeptical he can keep the ball in the yard at this extent.

It’s not fair to chalk Pérez’s better numbers up entirely to luck, however. He’s working with career-best control, only walking 6.6% of opponents. He’s also tweaked his repertoire, ramping up the usage of his sinker while scaling back a cutter that had been a particularly homer-prone offering last season. That change has been most dramatic against right-handed batters, who gave Pérez fits last season. After being tattooed at a .308/.368/.514 clip without the platoon advantage, he’s holding righties to a manageable .242/.302/.359 line in 2022. He’s gotten better results against lefty hitters as well, but his improvement against righties has been starker.

There aren’t many recent precedents for pitchers coming off seasons similar to the one Pérez is having. Between 2019-21, only five pitchers (minimum 100 innings) even posted an ERA under 4.00 with strikeout, walk and grounder rates in the realm of those Pérez has posted this season. Brett Anderson hit free agency after the 2019 campaign and signed a one-year, $5MM deal with the Brewers. Anderson, though, had a spottier durability track record than Pérez has had and had an even more extreme low-strikeout approach.

Wade Miley’s 2021 numbers — 3.36 ERA, 18.1% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk percentage, 49.3% ground-ball rate — are probably the closest recent parallel. Miley wasn’t a free agent last winter. He was, however, waived by the Reds and claimed by the Cubs, who promptly exercised a $10MM club option. That kind of annual salary could be a reasonable range for Pérez, but he and his representatives are likely to seek a multi-year deal. Miley’s salary came without the benefit of open market bidding, after all, and he’s playing this season at age 35. Pérez, on the other hand, won’t turn 32 until shortly before Opening Day in 2023.

Texas’ 2023 rotation outlook is largely unclear. Jon Gray will have one spot after signing a four-year deal last offseason. Dane Dunning looks like a serviceable back-of-the-rotation arm. The Rangers haven’t gotten much else beyond that duo and Pérez, with each of Taylor Hearn, Glenn Otto and Spencer Howard struggling mightily. The organization would love if top prospects Cole Winn and Jack Leiter proved ready for the majors early next year, but both righties are scuffling in the upper minors. For the Rangers to contend for a playoff spot next season, they’ll probably need to add at least one starter from outside the organization even if they re-sign Pérez.

Presumably, president of baseball operations Jon Daniels and Young will be in touch with the southpaw’s camp shortly. Assuming there’s truly mutual extension interest, it behooves the club to have an idea of the kind of contract that could be necessary to keep him off the free agent market before August 2. How far the gap is to be bridged in extension talks will surely play a role in the front office’s decision whether to shop him to contenders for the stretch run.

Martin Perez emphatically told reporters late last month that he hoped to stay with the Rangers long-term (link via Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News), and general manager Chris Young told Grant and others yesterday that the team is indeed open to the possibility of signing the veteran lefty to an extension (Twitter link).

Perez, who returned for a second stint with the Rangers on a one-year, $4MM deal over the winter, appears to be in the midst of the breakout season so many thought possible during his minor league days, when he was regarded as one of the top 30 prospects in all of baseball. It’s coming well later than anyone expected, at 31 years of age, but Perez has pitched to a brilliant 2.68 ERA with a career-high 20.7% strikeout rate, a career-low 6.6% walk rate and a 51.9% ground-ball rate that represents his highest mark since 2016.

Now an 11-year Major League veteran, Perez is throwing fewer four-seam fastballs than at any point in his career (6.6%) and has ramped up the usage of his sinker (37%) and changeup (27.7%) in its place. That changeup usage rate is a career-high, and his sinker usage is at its highest point since 2018. He’s also tamped down the use of the cutter he added with the Twins in 2019 but is still using it frequently as a third offering. His curveball, like his four-seamer, only makes a handful of appearances per start (5.1%). Perez has experimented with many pitch mixes throughout his career, but this is the most aggressively he’s ever leaned on the sinker/cutter/changeup trio, and the results are impressive.

The extent to which the Rangers are willing to spend to keep Perez beyond the current season isn’t yet known, but Perez made his feelings crystal clear in that late June interview, telling the Texas beat: “I want to be here and stay here, 100 percent. No — make it 300 percent.”

As things currently stand, righties Jon Gray and Dane Dunning are the only locks for the rotation beyond the current season. Texas is hopeful that touted prospects Jack Leiter and Cole Winn will emerge as high-end options sooner than later, but both have struggled considerably in the minors this season (Leiter in Double-A, Winn in Triple-A). Even if that pair were to right the ship and break through to the big leagues sometime in 2023, there’d still be room for a solid veteran of Perez’s caliber — and that’s obviously a best-case scenario that’s far from certain, given the volatility of pitching prospects.

Whether it’s a Perez extension or a trade that brings some controllable talent to Globe Life Field, Young expressed yesterday that the Rangers may not wait until the offseason to help solidify the 2023 rotation (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Levi Weaver). “I think that as we are building this and evaluating where we currently sit in the standings, and where we want to be this time next year, finding pieces both for the short term and potential fits beyond 2022 is how we’re approaching it,” Young said of the Rangers’ approach to the trade deadline.

The Rangers are currently five games below .500 at 41-46, which takes them completely out of the running in the American League West, where they trail the Astros by a massive 16.5-game deficit. They’re only four and a half back in the race for the American League’s third Wild Card spot, however, and Texas has played considerably better since a terrible start to the season. Following a 2-9 start to the season, they’ve gone 39-37 with a +25 run differential in that span.