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The Opener: QO Deadline, Rule 5 Deadline, Manager Of The Year

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As the offseason continues to roll along, here are three things we’ll be watching throughout the day today:

1. Qualifying Offer Decisions Due Today

The 14 players who received qualifying offers must either accept or decline the offer by 3:00p, central time this afternoon. While most of these players will make the easy and obvious decision to reject the QO, a few players have a more interesting decision on their hands. Rangers lefty Martin Perez is an example of someone who may accept a QO, though he joins Red Sox righty Nathan Eovaldi as someone who is in negotiations with his 2022 club on a multi-year deal, which could be ironed out in place of the one-year, $19.65MM QO contract. Such a deal could even occur after this deadline as passed, as was the case for Jose Abreu and the White Sox after the 2019 season. Giants outfielder Joc Pederson, Dodgers lefty Tyler Anderson and Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo are among the other candidates to accept the offer, though Rizzo has already reportedly drawn strong interest from the Astros even in spite of his QO.

2. Rule 5 Deadline Looms This Evening

Teams must set their 40-man rosters in advance of the upcoming Rule 5 Draft by 5:00pm central time this evening. Seeing as there was no major league phase of the Rule 5 Draft last offseason, teams will have more prospects than usual in need of protection, potentially resulting in a larger roster crunch than usual for many teams. The Rays have already made a pair of moves to clear roster space, and are expected to make more trades before the deadline tonight. While they may be among the most active teams today, it’s safe to say most teams will be making roster moves throughout the day leading up to this evening’s deadline.

3. Manager Of The Year Results Announced Tonight

Awards season continues tonight with the AL and NL Manager of the Year awards being announced this evening. In the AL, Terry Francona of the Guardians, Brandon Hyde of the Orioles, and Scott Servais of the Mariners are the finalists, while in the NL, it’ll be either Brian Snitker of the Braves, Dave Roberts of the Dodgers, or Buck Showalter of the Mets. Each finalist has an interesting case for the award to set themselves apart from the rest of the field. Francona’s Guardians achieved a surprise division title, overtaking the favored White Sox and Twins despite an extremely young roster and a far lower payroll than either of their division rivals. Hyde and the Orioles, despite not making the postseason, also massively overperformed expectations, staying in the postseason hunt through most of September after years of 100 loss seasons. Servais, meanwhile, led a Mariners club that ended the longest active playoff drought in the sport, bringing playoff baseball back to Seattle for the first time since 2001. Roberts and the Dodgers delivered a monster 111-win season that stands among the best in history, while Buck Showalter returned to the dugout to lead the Mets to a 100-win season of their own. Snitker, meanwhile, makes his case through Atlanta’s impressive September in which they ran down Showalter’s Mets for the division title. Results will be announced at 5:00pm central time this evening.

Martin Perez Leaning Toward Accepting Qualifying Offer

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Players have until tomorrow afternoon to make decisions on their one-year, $19.65MM qualifying offers, and as things currently stand, Martin Perez is “likely” to accept his offer, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Morosi hedges by suggesting that a late change in Perez’s market could prompt him to change his thinking, but it’s still of some note to see where things stand for Perez at present, after several days of fielding interest from other teams.

Perez, 32 in April, returned to the Rangers on a one-year, $4MM contract this season and quickly became one of baseball’s best bargains. The former top prospect finally delivered the type of season the Rangers envisioned during his minor league days, finishing tenth in the Majors with 196 1/3 innings and posting a 2.89 ERA that ranked 14th in the Majors. Perez’s success was due in no small part to a career-high 77% strand rate and to a level of home-run prevention (0.50 HR/9) he hasn’t shown since an injury-shortened 2015 season. However, the Rangers saw enough to make that weighty one-year offer, ostensibly comfortable with the idea that even in the event of some regression, Perez can be a serviceable innings eater in an otherwise perilously thin rotation mix.

Accepting the one-year offer wouldn’t necessarily preclude an eventual multi-year deal with the Rangers. While Perez would be locked in at $19.65MM for the 2023 season (and ineligible to be traded, without his consent, prior to June 15), that agreement could be torn up in favor of a new multi-year extension. The two parties would be free to continue negotiating on a possible multi-year pact, and Texas has reportedly already put forth a two-year offer to Perez — presumably at a notably lighter annual value than the $19.65MM rate of the QO.

From a payroll vantage point, even if that $19.65MM salary is something of an “overpay” for Perez, the Rangers likely don’t mind. Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez projects them for a payroll just shy of $122MM at the moment, so Perez would take them to about $141.5MM. Texas has run its payroll as high as $174MM, back in 2017, and that was before they had a brand new ballpark from which to draw revenue. GM Chris Young has said that payroll is expected to rise over its 2022 levels, when the Rangers’ $142MM Opening Day payroll is right in the vicinity where they’d be in the event of Perez accepting the QO.

If he does indeed accept, Perez would join Jon Gray, Dane Dunning and newly acquired Jake Odorizzi as options in the rotation. Texas is widely expected to pursue high-end starting pitching in free agency, having already been linked to the likes of Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodon and NPB star Kodai Senga, who is available (sans posting fee) as a true international free agent this winter.

The Opener: Approaching Deadlines, Montero, Orioles

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With more offseason deadlines on the horizon, here’s three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Qualifying offer, Rule 5 deadlines likely to spur movement

Two major offseason deadlines are coming tomorrow, which will likely be the focus of much of the offseason movement that happens today. Qualifying offer recipients must accept or reject the QO by 4pm EST tomorrow, and 40-man rosters must be set ahead of the Rule 5 Draft by 6pm EST tomorrow. The QO deadline could certainly see some recipients with less expected earning power, such as Joc Pederson or Martin Perez, either accept the QO or negotiate a multi-year deal with their previous team — perhaps after initially accepting, as Jose Abreu did during the 2019-20 offseason. While the names weighing the QO might garner more attention, it’s the Rule 5 deadline that will lead to more immediate action. Teams need to make room on their 40-man rosters for any prospects they want to protect from the Rule 5 Draft, which will require adding them to the 40-man roster. That forthcoming wave of additions will lead to a slew of players being designated for assignment, placed on waivers and perhaps traded, as teams create space on the fringes of their roster. This could also lead to some early non-tenders of arbitration-eligible players, as the Nov. 18 non-tender deadline is quickly approaching, too. As Mark Polishuk noted last night, the Rays figure to be one of the most proactive teams in terms of clearing up their 40-man roster in the coming days, having already shipped first baseman Ji-Man Choi to Pittsburgh last week.

2. Montero contract provides another data point on the relief market

In Friday’s Opener, I discussed the surprisingly strong relief market that relief pitchers have found this offseason, and how it could translate to the other relievers on the market. Rafael Montero indeed secured a third year on his new contract with the Astros, as predicted on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agent list, but his $34.5MM guarantee handily exceeded expectations. If that amount doesn’t seem particularly striking to you, consider righty Kendall Graveman, another former Astros/Mariners setup man, signed a three-year $24MM deal last winter despite being a year younger at the time of signing. Montero stands as a third pricey relief re-signing, to go with Edwin Diaz and Robert Suarez.

3. How aggressive will the Orioles be this offseason?

Orioles general manager Mike Elias pledged in August that payroll will rise in 2023 — though it’d be hard for it to decline much over its 2022 levels — which prompted many O’s fans to dream of marquee free-agent splashes as the team emerges from its rebuild. Over the weekend, however, Elias stated that the Orioles will not “go from zero miles an hour to 60 miles an hour in one offseason,” which casts doubt on whether the team will jump right into the deep end of the free-agent pool. At present, John Means’ $2.975MM salary is the only guarantee on the Orioles’ books, though between arbitration projections and a slate of pre-arb players to round out the roster, they project for a total of about $41MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. There’s ample space for multiple additions to the payroll, then, be it via free agency or perhaps by way of acquiring an established veteran in exchange for some minor league talent. With an impressive young core featuring the likes of Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle and Austin Hays — plus righty Grayson Rodriguez and several more top prospects looming — the Orioles appear on the cusp of a return to contention — if they can make the right moves to supplement that group. With so much payroll space available and a deep farm from which to trade for Major League talent, they’re one of the most fascinating clubs of the offseason.

14 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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14 players received qualifying offers this year, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). The list is as follows:

As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer a team can make to impending free agents. Players who have previously received a QO in their careers and/or didn’t spend the entire preceding season with one team cannot receive a qualifying offer. The value of the offer is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in MLB. For the 2022-23 offseason, it is set at $19.65MM.

If a player accepts the QO, he returns to his current team for next season on that salary. If he declines, the team would receive compensation if he were to sign elsewhere. The specific compensation depends on the team’s status as both a luxury tax payor and whether they receive revenue sharing payments. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a look at the compensation each team would receive for losing a qualified free agent last week.

Signing a player who refuses a QO from another team requires the signing team to forfeit draft picks and/or international signing bonus space. As with compensation for losing qualified free agents, the specific nature of the forfeiture is dependent on revenue sharing status and the competitive balance tax.

[Related: Which Picks Would Each Team Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent?]

The majority of players who receive qualifying offers decline them each offseason. Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, deGrom, Swanson, Rodón, Nimmo, Contreras and Bassitt were always virtual locks to receive a QO. They’ll assuredly turn them down and sign multi-year contracts, either with their incumbent teams or other clubs. Rejecting a qualifying offer, to be clear, does not affect a player’s ability to continue negotiating with his previous team.

Rizzo, Anderson and Pérez were all more borderline QO candidates, although reports in recent days had suggested each was likely to receive the offer. There’s a case for all three players in that group to accept, although their representatives will have five days to gauge the market before making that decision. Pérez has reportedly received a two-year offer from Texas. The sides have long expressed mutual interest in agreement, but they’ve yet to come to terms on a longer deal.

The final two qualified free agents come as more surprising developments. Eovaldi always looked like a borderline QO candidate. He recently wrapped up a four-year, $68MM contract with the Red Sox. The right-hander was generally effective over the life of that deal, but his 2022 campaign was more of a mixed bag. Shoulder and back injuries limited him to 20 starts and 109 1/3 innings. His 3.87 ERA over that stretch was right in line with his 2020-21 marks, but his strikeout rate dropped a few points to a league average 22.4%. Eovaldi’s fastball also dipped slightly from siting just under 97 MPH down to 95.7 MPH, but that’s still plenty impressive velocity. Paired with his elite strike-throwing ability and the Red Sox’s need for rotation help, they’d be content to bring the 32-year-old back for just under $20MM if he accepted the QO.

The most surprising qualifying offer recipient, however, is Pederson. San Francisco signed the outfielder to a one-year, $6MM deal last winter after an up-and-down 2021 campaign with the Cubs and Braves. The left-handed slugger responded with an excellent .274/.353/.521 showing, connecting on 23 home runs in 433 plate appearances. Pederson also posted elite batted ball marks, including a 93.2 MPH average exit velocity that’s around five MPH above league average. He also made hard contact (a batted ball hit 95 MPH or harder) on a career-best 52.1% of his balls in play.

That figured to give 30-year-old a strong shot at a multi-year offer, although it’s still surprising to see the Giants offer him nearly $20MM to return. Pederson played left field in Oracle Park, but he rated as 12 runs below average over 685 innings in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved. He’s consistently posted subpar defensive marks and is limited to the corner outfield or designated hitter. The Giants also shielded him against southpaws, limping him to 57 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.

Some notable players who were eligible for a qualifying offer but did not receive one include Jameson Taillon, Mitch Haniger, Taijuan Walker, Andrew Heaney and Michael Wacha. That group will all hit the open market unencumbered by draft pick compensation, which should be a boost to their free agent stocks.

Of the crop of QO recipients, Pederson looks likeliest to accept, although it’s possible that anyone in the group turns the offer down if their reps find interest over multi-year pacts. Players have until the evening of November 15 to determine whether to accept or turn down the QO.

The Opener: Free Agency, MLBTR’s Top 50, Rangers

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As the baseball world prepares for the offseason to kick into a higher gear this evening, here are three things to keep an eye on throughout the day:

1. The Next Stage Of The Offseason Begins

At 4 PM CDT today, free agency will begin in earnest. Most importantly, that time is when free agents will be free to negotiate and sign new contracts with other clubs. It also serves as the deadline for teams to extend their outgoing players a Qualifying Offer, and for teams and players alike to make the few options decisions that remain undecided, such as those of Nick Martinez, who Dennis Lin of The Athletic notes may renegotiate his contract with San Diego, and Justin Turner. News should be expected to trickle in throughout the day leading up to 4 PM CDT, as players and teams make their final decisions and plans before the next stage of the offseason begins.

2. MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents

Once that QO/option deadline passes, we at MLB Trade Rumors will put the finishes touches on our annual Top 50 Free Agents And Predictions post. Some outlets have already published theirs, but we like to wait until the QO decisions have been revealed because they can have such a significant impact on a free agent’s market. This makes us a little bit late to the party but allows us to provide a bit more analysis and (hopefully) more accuracy. For instance, one year ago, we predicted that Brandon Belt would accept the QO and returns to the Giants, which eventually came to pass. For most borderline QO candidates, we have seperate predictions based on whether they get the offer or not. It’s our biggest post of the year and you should keep an eye out for it later today! Shortly after that comes out, we will also launch our annual prediction contest, where you can do your best to try and predict the unpredictable offseason.

3. Rangers Look To Fortify Rotation

The Rangers are looking to improve after a big offseason last year resulted in a record of 68-94 and a fourth place finish in the AL West in 2022, and they have no bigger need than the rotation, where they face plenty of questions as to who will slot in both in front of and behind Jon Gray. Texas shored up the back of their rotation yesterday evening in a trade with the Braves for Jake Odorizzi, but GM Chris Young will need to add more to his rotation in order to compete in 2023. The Rangers have been previously connected to lefty ace Carlos Rodon, and reports last night indicated that the club not only plans on extending Martin Perez a Qualifying Offer by today’s deadline, but is in negotiations with his camp on a multiyear deal as well. Should the Rangers be successful in their pursuits, a rotation of Rodon, Perez, Gray, Odorizzi, and a youngster such as Dane Dunning or Spencer Howard would be a significant improvement over 2022, though they’d still need to address their outfield situation to truly position themselves as contenders for 2023.

Rangers Offered Martin Perez Two-Year Contract, Expected To Extend Qualifying Offer

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The Rangers have offered left-hander Martín Pérez a two-year contract with an option for the 2025 campaign, reports Jeff Wilson. While Wilson characterizes the sides as “not too far apart,” he notes Texas is expected to tag Pérez with a $19.65MM qualifying offer tomorrow with no multi-year deal in place.

That meshes with a report from MLB.com’s Jon Morosi, who called a QO for Pérez “likely” yesterday. Texas general manager Chris Young has indicated the team is considering a QO but has thus far not made any definitive statement about the team’s course of action. If the Octagon client were to reject a QO and sign elsewhere, the Rangers would pick up a compensatory draft choice between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round (roughly 75th overall) next summer.

Assuming the Rangers go through with the QO, Pérez will have ten days to gauge interest from other teams before deciding whether to accept. A $19.65MM salary would easily be the highest single-season salary in the southpaw’s career, well above this year’s $4MM figure. That possible raise, of course, is a reflection of his All-Star 2022 campaign. The 31-year-old soaked up 196 1/3 innings through 32 starts, pitching to a 2.89 ERA while racking up grounders at a strong 51.4% clip.

That durability and reliability was particularly valuable to a Texas team that otherwise had a lackluster starting staff. Jon Gray was effective when healthy but battled some injury concerns during his first year in Arlington. Dane Dunning was a useful back-of-the-rotation arm, but the rest of Texas’ starters were inconsistent or ineffective. It’s little surprise the Rangers would look to keep Pérez around with the rotation presenting their biggest need, but there’s also reason to question how replicable his 2022 success may be.

Pérez had bounced around a bit in recent years. A top prospect early in his days with Texas, he had a decent age-22 campaign in 2013 but never took the anticipated jump to the top or middle of a rotation. Pérez posted an ERA above 4.30 every year between 2014-21, eventually moving from Texas to Minnesota to Boston. He consistently racked up innings and did a nice job keeping the ball on the ground, but his lack of missed bats limited his upside. Upon returning to the Rangers this year, he made some small tweaks to his repertoire, leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against left-handers and turning to his sinker more frequently against righties. However, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, nor were his underlying metrics too different from those of prior seasons.

His 20.6% strikeout rate was a career-high, but it was still a bit lower than the league mark. He got swinging strikes on only 8.4% of his offerings, a figure right in line with his 2020-21 clips. Pérez’s ground-ball rate bounced back to peak levels after a recent dip, but he’s posted back-of-the-rotation numbers while getting worm-burners half the time in the past. Much of his success was reliant on surrendering just one homer for every 18 innings pitched, the third-lowest rate among qualified starters and one he’s likely to have trouble sustaining over multiple years.

Financial terms of Texas’ offer aren’t clear, although that they seemingly didn’t put forth a guaranteed three-year proposal appears to reflect the front office’s balancing of those considerations. There’s no question Pérez was immensely valuable for the club in 2022, and Texas has made no secret about their hunt for quality starting pitching. At the same time, expecting him to consistently perform at or near this year’s level without a massive spike in velocity or whiffs nor a dramatic overhaul to his pitch usage is probably unrealistic.

Regardless of whether Pérez accepts the qualifying offer or the sides do wind up working out a multi-year deal, the front office will continue its search for rotation help. Young told reporters yesterday the team was “going to explore all ends of the (free agent) market” for starting pitching and expressed a willingness to add arms via trade (link via Levi Weaver of the Athletic). Texas took a step in solidifying the rotation this evening, sending Kolby Allard to Atlanta for Jake Odorizzi. With the Braves paying down Odorizzi’s contract to just $2.5MM, that represented a low-cost move for capable back-of-the-rotation innings, and there’s no question the Rangers will continue their search for higher-impact arms over the coming months.

Rangers Considering Qualifying Offer For Martin Perez

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The Rangers and left-hander Martin Perez have voiced hope of working out an extension since this summer, but with the team’s five-day exclusive negotiation window nearing its end, a multi-year deal isn’t close, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. Texas is “likely” to make a qualifying offer to Perez if a multi-year deal can’t be agreed upon, Morosi adds.

A $19.65MM qualifying offer for Perez would’ve seemed unthinkable not long ago, but the 31-year-old lefty parlayed his one-year, $4MM Rangers reunion into a legitimate case for a multi-year deal in free agency (and, thus, for a possible QO). Perez ranked tenth among all big league pitchers with 196 1/3 innings pitched in 2022, and his career-best 2.89 ERA ranked 14th among qualified starting pitchers (and 23rd among the 140 pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched).

Perez’s breakout comes on the heels of a five-year stretch that saw him pitch to a 5.05 ERA in 611 2/3 big league innings for three different teams (Rangers, Twins, Red Sox). Despite persistently lackluster results, he continued to receive Major League deals in free agency, inking one-year pacts with the Twins, Red Sox and Rangers along the way. That, coupled with Perez’s longtime standing as one of the game’s premier pitching prospects (albeit more than a decade ago), suggested that teams see a bit more to him than his rudimentary numbers might otherwise indicate.

In 2022, Perez at last made good on those repeated shows of faith, but the reasons for his breakout are more subtle than other pitching breakouts we’ve seen in recent years. Perez didn’t add a lethal new breaking pitch, nor did he enjoy a pronounced spike in his velocity.

Rather, Perez made alterations to the same five-pitch mix on which he’s relied for some time now. This season’s 36.9% usage rate on his sinker was his highest since his last run with the Rangers in 2018. His 27.7% usage rate on his changeup was a career-high — but only by a matter of a couple percentage points over his 2020-21 levels. Perez has largely scrapped his four-seamer (6.5%) and curveball (3.5%), using them as show-me offerings that complement a heavier three-pitch reliance on his sinker, changeup and a cutter he implemented with the Twins in 2019. Neither the four-seamer nor the curveball, however, were prominently used pitches for Perez in recent seasons anyhow.

The biggest contributing factors to Perez’s success in 2022 might be ones that teams have a hard time buying into. His 0.50 HR/9 mark was miles better than his career 1.07 mark (and, particularly better than the 1.39 rate he’d yielded from 2018-21). Perez’s 77% strand rate is a hefty eight percentage points higher than his career norm. Add in the fact that he’ll turn 32 next year and again look to his modest track record prior to 2022, and there are enough red flags that Perez would seem likely to be ce capped at a three-year deal in free agency.

Granted, a three-year deal — even one at a lower rate than the qualifying offer — could still guarantee Perez quite a bit more than he’d earn by accepting a one-year commitment. That’ll be the question that he and his representatives at Octagon have to weigh; is it worth forgoing a guaranteed $19.65MM to lock that might be more in the $12-13MM range over a three-year term? Would a team even offer such a deal, knowing it’d also have to punt a draft pick (or multiple picks) in order to sign Perez?

Conversely, accepting the one-year term has its own risk-reward benefits. Repeating his 2022 excellence (or even approximating it) and returning to the market with a stellar two-year platform and without the burden of a qualifying offer — players can only receive one in their career — would set Perez up for a much larger deal than he could expect to command this winter. On the other hand, an injury or reversion to his 2018-21 form could potentially cost him $10-20MM over what he might get on a three-year deal.

Just where the two parties stand isn’t yet clear, but Perez has made no secret of his hope to remain in Texas long-term. “I want to be here and stay here, 100 percent,” the left-hander said back in July before adding: No — make it 300 percent.” Whether that exuberance manifests in a deal — and the extent to which the Rangers could be posturing in an effort to push Perez closer to a deal — will become clearer Thursday when qualifying offer decisions are formally due.

Locking in Perez, if he were to accept a qualifying offer, at $19.65MM would push the Rangers’ projected payroll to about $133MM, not including pre-arbitration players (hat tip to Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez). That would already be within $10MM of 2022’s Opening Day mark of $142MM, but the Rangers have taken payroll as high as $173MM in the past (2017) — and that was before they opened a new ballpark. General manager Chris Young has already plainly stated that the team’s payroll will increase in 2023, so there’s little reason to view a potential $19.65MM salary for Perez as any kind of burden that would hinder them from making further additions.

Latest On Rangers, Martin Perez

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Both during and after Martin Perez’s bounce-back season, the veteran left-hander and the Rangers shared mutual interest in a potential contract extension.  The two sides have met for negotiations, and while no deal has yet emerged, Rangers GM Chris Young told the Dallas Morning News’ Evan Grant that “we continue to have good conversations.  We’re hopeful of getting something done, but we’re considering various options, including the qualifying offer.  We understand that Martín will have value on the free agent market.”

Once the World Series is over, teams have five days to issue qualifying offers (a one-year, $19.65MM deal) to any eligible free agents.  Perez fits the bill for eligibility, as a player who has never received a QO in the past, and who spent the entire 2022 season with one team.  If a free agent rejects a qualifying offer and signs elsewhere, his former team would then receive a compensatory draft pick — in the Rangers’ case, that pick would fall between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round, so a pick around 75th and 80th overall.

That extra draft selection would be particularly useful for a Texas club that lost picks for signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien (who both rejected QOs) last winter in free agency, and who might very well be prepared to lose more picks for other qualifying-offer free agents this offseason.  The Rangers are expected to continue being aggressive as they look to finally get back into contention, and any number big names could be on the radar in Young’s first winter running the front office.

That said, starting pitching is the Rangers’ most glaring need, so a reunion with Perez could well be more valuable in the short term than the bigger-term value of a compensatory draft pick.  If Perez did accept the one-year qualifying offer, nothing prevents the two sides from continuing to discuss a multi-year deal.  Back in the 2019-20 offseason, Jose Abreu accepted the QO from the White Sox, and shortly thereafter signed a new extension that added two additional years beyond his commitment to the 2020 campaign.

These are some of the reasons that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco listed Perez as a borderline possibility in his recent preview of the qualifying-offer market, as both Perez and the Rangers face some interesting pros and cons regarding the QO.  As Franco noted, Perez’s underlying metrics didn’t reveal any huge difference between Perez’s 2022 season and the southpaw’s more inconsistent past seasons.  If the Rangers think some regression is coming, they just might not value Perez at the $19.65MM price point.  While the Rangers would naturally be offering him more total dollars over the course of a multi-year arrangement, spreading out that cost over at least two seasons might be more palatable from the team’s perspective, especially if Texas is planning to start spending closer to the luxury tax threshold in the next year or two.

$19.65MM would easily represent the biggest single-season salary of Perez’s career, and he could opt to accept the QO simply to cash in on his comeback season.  However, with almost $36MM earned over 11 Major League seasons, Perez has already banked quite a bit of financial security.  Coming off four straight one-year contracts and entering his age-32 season, Perez might be looking for more stability at this point in his career, and might prefer a multi-year contract to a one-year pact, even at the higher $19.65MM price point of a qualifying offer.

Once that five-day period after the World Series ends, free agency officially opens to the entire league, and the Rangers lose their exclusive negotiating rights with Perez.  The deadline for players to decide on accepting or rejecting qualifying offers doesn’t come until 10 days after the opening of free agency, giving Perez more time to ponder his choice if Texas did opt to issue the QO.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

Rangers Will Meet With Martin Perez Next Week

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The Rangers are planning to meet with Martin Perez and his representatives at Octagon next week, general manager Chris Young said at today’s end-of-season press conference (Twitter link via Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). Perez, a free agent, has expressed interest in re-signing with Texas at multiple points this summer, and Young went on record to express interest in retaining the 31-year-old southpaw.

Originally signed by the Rangers as an amateur out of Venezuela, Perez one ranked among the sport’s very best pitching prospects. He finished sixth in American League Rookie of the Year voting back in 2013 and looked very much like a pitcher on the rise; Perez inked a four-year, $12.5MM contract extension that included three club options after that rookie season.

Perez’s upward trajectory quickly hit a snag in 2014, however, as elbow discomfort sidelined him for much of the season and ultimately culminated in Tommy John surgery. He returned late in 2015, but Perez saw his command and strikeout rates both continue to trend in the wrong direction. He settled in as a back-of-the-rotation starter, bouncing from Texas to Minnesota to Boston before returning to the Rangers on a one-year, $4MM deal in free agency this past winter.

The Perez reunion was met with a healthy bit of skepticism, but he’s quieted naysayers with far and away the best showing of his career. In 32 starts and 196 2/3 innings, Perez worked to a 2.89 ERA, a career-best 20.6% strikeout rate and an 8.4% walk rate that was his third-best mark since returning from Tommy John surgery. Perez’s 51.4% grounder rate was his best mark since 2016.

There hasn’t been a radical overhaul of Perez’s pitch arsenal — no new, bat-missing slider that’s turned him into a dominant arm — but he’s succeeded with some more subtle changes. This year’s 27.7% usage rate on his changeup is the highest of his career, and Perez has increasingly favored his sinker, relegating his four-seamer and curveball to little more than occasional change-of-pace offerings. It’s been primarily sinker, cutter and changeup for Perez in 2022, and it’s hard to argue with the results.

For all the money the Rangers spent last year — more than a half-billion dollars in free agent contracts — the starting rotation remains in a state of flux. Last year’s main pickup for the starting staff, Jon Gray, posted strong results in his first season away from Colorado’s Coors Field, pitching to a 3.96 ERA in 127 1/3 innings but also missing time with minor knee and oblique issues. Right-handers Dane Dunning and Glenn Otto made 29 and 27 starts, respectively, finishing with ERAs in the mid-4.00s (though Otto’s strikeout and walk rates paint a more bearish picture). Texas has about $85MM on next year’s payroll, before considering a $6MM club option on Jose Leclerc and a small arbitration class headlined by Mitch Garver and Taylor Hearn.

Beyond that trio of Gray, Dunning and Otto, there’s no real certainty. Starting pitching figures to be a primary focus for the Rangers this winter, and while Perez may not be expected to repeat his 2022 excellence, he’d be a strong stabilizing presence and a nice early complement as the new-look Texas front office seeks a higher-profile addition for the top of the rotation. Perez has certainly earned himself a multi-year deal with that 2022 showing, and the question will now become one of whether the two parties can find a common ground.

Publicly stated mutual interest from the two parties is a good start but hardly solidifies that a deal will come together. If Perez does reach the open market, he ought to draw a fair bit of interest. He continued to command Major League contracts with decent guarantees even on the heels of lackluster performances, after all, signaling that teams throughout the league have long believed there’s another gear for him to reach. Now that he’s seemingly found that next level, that interest will only intensify.

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