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Max Muncy

Dodgers Place Max Muncy On Injured List, Option James Outman

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The Dodgers made a series of roster moves today, activating outfielder Jason Heyward from the injured list while recalling outfielder Miguel Vargas and right-hander Ricky Vanasco. To open roster spots for that group, they placed third baseman Max Muncy on the 10-day injured list with a right oblique strain and optioned outfielder James Outman and left-hander Nick Ramirez.

Prior to the official announcement, Francys Romero reported on X that Vargas would be called up. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic was among those to relay on X that Outman no longer had a locker with the club.

While oblique strains typically lead to absences of multiple weeks, the Dodgers don’t seem especially concerned. Manager Dave Roberts told the team’s beat (including Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic) that it’s a mild strain. The club is hopeful he’ll only require a minimal stint. Muncy is out to his typical start to the season: drawing plenty of walks and hitting for power to compensate for a low batting average. Through 167 plate appearances, he has a .223/.323/.475 line with nine homers.

Muncy has gotten the start at third base for 36 of L.A.’s 46 games. Enrique Hernández is in the lineup tonight against Cincinnati right-hander Frankie Montas. Roberts told reporters that Hernández and Miguel Rojas will take the third base work while Muncy is out.

Heyward draws back into the lineup after missing six weeks with a back issue. The veteran should be in the lineup in right field against right-handed pitching. That bumps rookie Andy Pages from right field to center field, while Teoscar Hernández will be in one of the corners on an everyday basis. The Dodgers shield Heyward from left-handed pitching. Roberts said one of Vargas or Chris Taylor will be in left field against southpaws, pushing Hernández to right and Heyward to the bench.

The outfield shuffling sends Outman to the minors for the first time since 2022. The 27-year-old finished third in NL Rookie of the Year balloting last season, hitting 23 homers with a .248/.353/.437 slash line. His offensive production has plummeted this season. Outman has been one of the least productive hitters in MLB, turning in a .147/.250/.266 mark. He has fanned in more than 32% of his plate appearances and hasn’t made the same level of power impact he did last season.

Outman will try to get on track at Triple-A Oklahoma City to put himself back on the radar for an MLB call. He’ll need to do so quickly to stay on pace to reach free agency after the 2028 season. Outman entered the season with one year and six days of MLB service. A service year is tallied at 172 days, so he needs to spend at least 166 days on the MLB roster to surpass the two-year threshold in 2024. If he spends more than a couple weeks in Triple-A, he’ll fall short of that mark.

Dodgers Notes: Paxton, Muncy, Cartaya, Frasso

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James Paxton threw 96 innings with the Red Sox last season, marking his return to somewhat regular action after injuries limited him to 21 2/3 big league frames in 2020-21 and no innings at all in 2022.  Paxton’s comeback year was then basically two seasons in one — the excellent 2.76 ERA he posted over his first 56 innings, followed by an ugly 6.98 ERA in his final 40 innings of work.

As Paxton tells Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times, “I felt like I kind of reached a point where my body was just a little burned out.  I didn’t have much left in the tank.”  Paxton kept pushing since the Red Sox were still on the fringes of the playoff race, and struggled in particular once he was moved to a regular turn of four days’ rest between starts.

“Early in the season, I had a lot of extra rest, and then we went to a shorter leash.  Coming off a surgery and that much time off, I wasn’t conditioned for that,” Paxton said.  “If you start off going [every five days] your body gets accustomed to that, whereas if you go six all the time, that’s what your body gets accustomed to.  We’re creatures of habit.”

Despite the rough finish to his season, Paxton still landed $7MM from the Dodgers on a one-year free agent contract, even if that $7MM total dropped from an initial $11MM guarantee due to some concerns the team had about his overall health.  The 35-year-old lefty is hopeful that getting some innings under his belt last season will better help him manage the length of the 2024 campaign, plus L.A. will deploy “somewhat of a six-man rotation,” according to assistant pitching coach Connor McGuinness.  The idea is to keep all of the Dodgers’ hurlers fresh and healthy, plus some other reinforcements in Clayton Kershaw and Dustin May could join the pitching mix after the middle of the season.

Whereas Paxton’s 2023 season was basically divided in two, Max Muncy’s year was a bit more of a roller-coaster before he finished a pretty typical year of production.  The infielder hit .212/.333/.475 over 579 plate appearances while matching his career high of 36 home runs, translating to a 118 wRC+.  Los Angeles was impressed enough to sign Muncy to a new contract extension, guaranteeing him $24MM through 2025 while also tacking a $10MM club option on his services for 2026.

Muncy’s recipe of homers, walks, low averages, and high strikeouts is pretty set, but as he enters his age-33 season, Muncy feels he has more to offer as a defensive player.  He told reporters (including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register) that his offseason regiment included cutting 15 pounds and focusing more on flexibility training.

“It was just making sure my feet move a little bit more, and getting the knees healthy.  Last year, I had a little trouble with just not staying down on the ball,” Muncy said.  “I was coming up out of my fielding stance and everything.  And when you’re doing that, it’s hard to read the hops and I kept putting myself in bad positions last year with bad hops….So the focus was just making sure that my feet stay moving.  Just allowing myself to read the ball and make moves on it.”

There’s basically nowhere to go but up for Muncy defensively, as the public defensive metrics (-7 Outs Above Average, -3 Defensive Runs Saved, -14.8 UZR/150) were unanimously unimpressed with his third base glovework in 2023.  The move to more or less a full-time third base role has come as the Dodgers have brought superstar talent into Muncy’s other positions — Shohei Ohtani is now locked in at DH, Freddie Freeman at first base, and Mookie Betts is now moving into  everyday second base duty.

“I’ve been very open about how I want to stay here for the rest of my career….So if I want to play here, I need to make sure I’m in the field, and the best way to do that is just put myself in a good spot,” Muncy said.

In other Dodgers news, GM Brandon Gomes told Plunkett and other reporters that catching prospect Diego Cartaya has been dealing with a back problem but the “full expectation” is that Cartaya will be set for the start of the Double-A season.  Back problems have bothered Cartaya in the past, and the last thing the catcher needs is an injury setback as he looks to bounce back from a difficult season.  A top-20 prospect in the sport heading into the 2023 campaign, Cartaya hit only .189/.278/.379 over 403 PA at Double-A last season, dropping his stock as a potential catcher of the future.

Nick Frasso is another top-100 prospect looking at a lost year, as he was already expected to miss the 2024 season after undergoing shoulder surgery back in November.  Gomes added that Frasso also had a “clean-up” surgery on his right hip labrum, though it doesn’t appear as though this second procedure will impact the right-hander’s timeline.  If all goes well, Gomes thinks Frasso will be able to pitch in the Arizona Fall League.

Dodgers Sign Max Muncy To Two-Year Extension

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The Dodgers announced they’ve signed infielder Max Muncy to a two-year, $24MM extension. The deal also includes a $10MM club option for 2026. The contract overwrites a $14MM option that L.A. had on Muncy’s services for next season.

A client of Hub Sports Management, Muncy will reportedly receive a $5MM signing bonus. He’ll make a $7MM salary next season and $12MM in 2025, while the deal includes additional bonuses based on his plate appearance totals. The contract has a $12MM average annual value.

Muncy, 33, has spent the past six seasons in Los Angeles. Originally an unceremonious addition via minor league contract, he quickly developed into one of the Dodgers’ most important hitters. The lefty-swinging infielder has reached the 35-homer mark in four of the five full schedules. He popped 36 longballs this past season, tying with Jorge Soler for 12th in the majors in that regard.

That power production comes with one of the sport’s more extreme offensive approaches. Muncy is a prototypical three true outcomes hitter. He pairs the home runs with an extremely patient plate approach. The deep counts translate to plenty of walks, as he has drawn a free pass in 15% of his career plate appearances. Yet he’s also prone to strikeouts and runs very low averages on balls in play thanks to a fly-ball heavy swing.

As a result, Muncy has one of the lower batting averages among everyday players. He hit .212/.333/.475 through 579 trips to the plate this past season. That’s on the heels of a .196/.329/.384 showing. Over the last two years, the two-time All-Star sports a .204/.331/.430 line in a little more than 1100 trips to the plate.

That isn’t quite as impressive as Muncy’s production over his first few seasons in Southern California. The overall offensive production is still clearly above-average, however. Muncy’s 118 wRC+ this year indicates he was 18 percentage points better than an average batter. The front office clearly values his contributions, as they’ve now signed him to three separate extensions.

Muncy has a decent amount of experience at first and second base. He spent the entire ’23 campaign at third base, logging a personal-high 1052 innings there. Metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average estimated he was between three and five runs below par at the hot corner. That’s hardly disastrous but aligns with his reputation as a bat-first player.

As he gets into his mid-30s, that profile seems likely to skew increasingly towards offense. Whether Muncy sees another 120+ starts at third base may well be determined by the Dodgers’ subsequent offseason moves. Freddie Freeman is locked in at first base. The club should welcome Gavin Lux back from the ACL tear that cost him all of 2023, likely securing second base. Miguel Vargas, Michael Busch and Chris Taylor are among the possibilities for third base reps, although Muncy is clearly above that group on the depth chart.

The designated hitter role will be one of the stories of the offseason. L.A. will see J.D. Martinez hit free agency in the coming days, although they could make him a qualifying offer. They’re sure to make a run at Shohei Ohtani, a potential addition that would push Muncy back to third base.

Even with this deal in place, the Dodgers have plenty of breathing room financially. Roster Resource projected the 2024 payroll around $127MM before this extension. That’ll sit a little under $140MM now, well below this year’s $223MM Opening Day estimate. The $12MM AAV pushes their luxury tax projection to roughly $155MM. That’s more than $80MM south of next year’s $237MM base threshold.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Dodgers and Muncy were seriously discussing a two-year extension. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first suggested the deal was agreed upon. Murray had the specific salary breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Daniel Hudson Undecided About Future

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2023 may have been the most frustrating of Daniel Hudson’s 14 MLB seasons, as injuries limited the Dodgers right-hander to just three appearances.  As a result, Hudson is still “undecided” about his playing future, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic writes, though at the time the reliever was still dealing with the emotions after the Dodgers were just eliminated from the postseason.

Los Angeles signed Hudson to a one-year, $7MM deal going into 2022 and that relationship began beautifully, with Hudson delivering a 2.22 ERA, 30.9% strikeout rate, 5.2% walk rate and 53.4% ground ball rate over his first 25 appearances and 24 1/3 innings in Dodger blue.  However, Hudson’s season was abruptly ended by a torn left ACL in June 2022, but L.A. had enough faith in his ability to come back that the club signed him to an extension that September.  The Dodgers made the early decision to exercise their $6.5MM club option on Hudson for 2023, and another $6.5MM club option was added for the 2024 season.

Battling through some knee soreness during the recovery process, Hudson finally returned to action this past June, but pitched in only three games before suffering a sprained MCL in his right knee.  The reliever kept rehabbing in an attempt to make it back for at least part of Los Angeles’ playoff run, but that would’ve been a touch-and-go situation even if the Dodgers had advanced to the NLCS or beyond.

While it doesn’t look like L.A. will exercise that club option, the Dodgers could look to bring Hudson back on a smaller sum, perhaps a low-guarantee deal with incentives based around how many appearances Hudson is able to pitch.  Of course, that depends on whether or not Hudson (who turns 37 in March) will decide to keep pitching at all, or opt to instead hang up the cleats after his lengthy and successful career.  This isn’t the first time Hudson has floated retirement, as he said back in August that he had “been in pretty consistent pain for about 15 months” since the ACL tear.

Ardaya’s piece in general looks ahead to the many decisions the Dodgers will have to make before Opening Day 2024, including a rundown of the club’s other contract options besides Hudson.  Of note, Max Muncy’s $10MM club option for next season has now increased to $14MM, since the infielder maxed out his playing time-related bonuses by making 579 plate appearances in 2023.

Muncy battled elbow problems for much of the 2022 season, so the Dodgers signed him to a one-year contract extension in a similar vein to Hudson’s deal.  The team essentially committed early to a pre-existing club option on Muncy for 2023, giving him a slight raise to a $10.5MM salary this season and tacking on the 2024 club option with the $10MM base salary.  Up to $4MM (in increments of $250K, $500K, and $1MM) more was available based on various playing time thresholds, which Muncy pretty easily cleared.  After hitting 36 homers with an .808 OPS and 118 wRC+ this season, there isn’t any doubt Los Angeles will exercise Muncy’s option and bring him back in 2024.

Dodgers Have Discussed Nolan Arenado Trade With Cardinals

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The Dodgers have engaged the Cardinals in trade talks for Nolan Arenado, reports Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times. The third baseman has a full no-trade clause but Castillo reports that Arenado, a Southern California native, is willing to waive that right only if it means going to the Dodgers. It’s unclear if those talks made any progress or if a deal is close but the Cardinals are under no obligation to move Arenado, since he has four more years on his contract and they plan on contending again next year, but the Dodgers do have young pitching that they need. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com relays word from Arenado’s agent Joel Wolfe, who says that the report Arenado is only willing to waive his no-trade for the Dodgers is “inaccurate.”

It’s hardly surprising that the Dodgers would be interested in Arenado, who has been one of the game’s premier players for quite some time. He’s launched 321 home runs in his career and has produced a batting line of .288/.345/.534 for a wRC+ of 122, dating back to his 2013 debut. He’s done that while providing elite defense at the hot corner, having racked up 151 Defensive Runs Saved in his career, as well as 90 Outs Above Average and a 73.7 grade from Ultimate Zone Rating. He already has a career tally of 48.3 wins above replacement from FanGraphs and 54.1 from Baseball Reference.

The Cardinals are having a disappointing season, having fallen to 46-57 and 9.5 games back of a playoff spot. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak admitted a couple of weeks ago that the club would have to make moves aimed at improving the 2024 club. However, he also maintained that moving a key player like Arenado or Paul Goldschmidt wasn’t in their plans. “I don’t have any intentions of trading anybody like them,” he said, before leaving the door open to an offer that could change his mind. “If you’re willing to listen on anything, you have to understand (anything’s possible), but I doubt that would happen.”

To be clear, the Dodgers having interest in Arenado doesn’t mean the Cards are under any obligation to make a deal. As Mozeliak mentioned, they are willing to listen on anything. All indications have pointed to the Cardinals planning on moving short-term pieces and reloading for 2024 around a similar position player core but with a retooled pitching staff. Perhaps the Dodgers have enough young pitching talent to make a deal happen, but that’s still not clear at this point.

The Dodgers are 58-43, holding a three-game lead in the West and are clearly in buyer position. They’ve already added a couple of complementary pieces in Enrique Hernández and Amed Rosario but a big push for Arenado would obviously be a move in a different stratosphere.

The club has used players like Max Muncy and Chris Taylor at third base for much of this year, though both players are also capable of playing other positions and Castillo reports it’s possible that one or both of them could end up going to St. Louis in the potential deal. Muncy has long been a three-true-outcomes leader, hitting plenty of home runs while frequently walking and striking out. He’s continuing that this year, hitting 25 home runs while slashing .197/.329/.478 for a wRC+ of 118. However, he’s more of a bat-first option at third, having produced subpar defensive grades this year. The Dodgers hold a club option for his services in 2024 set at $10MM with no buyout.

Taylor spent many years as an above-average hitter who could play just about anywhere on the diamond. He reached free agency after 2021 and re-signed with the Dodgers on a four-year, $60MM contract but has seen his offensive performance slip. He hit .265/.343/.461 from 2017 to 2021 but just .219/.297/.399 since the start of last year. Despite the diminished production, he’s still been able to slot into every position except for first base and the battery. He still has two years and $26MM remaining on his deal after this year.

Arenado would undoubtedly be an upgrade over either of those two players, though the Dodgers would have to part with something to make it happen. The Cardinals have long been known to be in need of long-term starting pitching since Adam Wainwright is set to retire while both Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery are impending free agents and likely to wind up traded in the coming days. Steven Matz is a question mark after getting bumped to the bullpen earlier in the year, only recently retaking a starting job. Depth options like Dakota Hudson, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Connor Thomas haven’t had great years either, leaving Miles Mikolas as the sole building block in next year’s rotation.

Young and controllable pitching is the something the Dodgers could offer, even some with some major league experience. Multiple injuries to their starting staff this year have forced them up push prospects up to the majors, including Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan and Michael Grove. That group would have also included Ryan Pepiot, though he suffered an oblique strain on the verge of Opening Day and has been on the injured list since, only beginning a rehab assignment this month.

Miller, 24, has a 4.28 ERA through 10 starts, striking out 23.2% of hitters while walking 7% and getting grounders at a 45.5% clip. Sheehan, 23, has a 6.75 ERA through his six outings while Grove, 26, is at 6.19 this year. Each of those three and Pepiot were generally considered among the club’s 30 best prospects coming into the season and they all come with years of cheap control. Castillo’s report suggests the Cardinals have interest in all four.  Moving them would leave the Dodgers with diminished pitching depth, but perhaps they could patch that over by acquiring veteran rentals for the stretch run, with Clayton Kershaw potentially returning at some point later in the year. The Dodgers reportedly had interest in rental starter Lucas Giolito prior to him being traded to the Angels yesterday, and Castillo’s report speculates they could be interested in getting Flaherty or Montgomery from the Cardinals as well.

The Cardinals surely have some level of interest in each of those, given their dire need for pitching, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re willing to move on from Arenado in order to acquire them. The two sides have long seen committed to each other, with Arenado even forgoing an opt-out opportunity at the end of last season. He likely could have topped the five years and $144MM remaining on his deal but decided to stay in St. Louis instead. He will still have four more years and $109MM left on that deal at the end of this year.

That would be a hefty salary for the Dodgers to take on as they are already over the competitive balance tax and will likely be trying to sign Shohei Ohtani to a record-breaking deal this winter, like many other teams. Perhaps they could balance some of that out by including Muncy or Taylor in the deal, though that would depend how much the Cardinals value those veteran players compared to the younger starters.

Arenado departing St. Louis would leave a hole at third base in St. Louis going forward, though Muncy or Taylor could theoretically help fill that. Leaving those two aside, the Cardinals have many multi-positional players like Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman, who have each played some third this year. Tommy Edman hasn’t played there this year but has in the past. He might be needed at shortstop if Paul DeJong winds up traded this week, though prospect Masyn Winn is in Triple-A and could slot in there in the near future.

It’s worth reiterating that teams often discuss all kinds of trade scenarios and there’s been nothing to suggest anything is close to completion here. Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat straight up denies that Arenado is being traded and, as mentioned up top, Arenado’s agent has denied the report about his no-trade clause. The Cardinals and Dodgers make sense as potential trade partners since one has short-term pitching but needs long-term, and the other the opposite. It would be natural for the Dodgers to at least ask about other players in those talks. Mozeliak has said in the past that the Cardinals, despite doing some selling, weren’t looking to move key players like Arenado. He did say they are willing to listen on anything, so perhaps the Dodgers have enough young pitching to make them think about it, but time will tell.

Dodgers Notes: Muncy, Rotation, Thor

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Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters today (including Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times) that he expects infielder Max Muncy to return to the lineup at third base for Tuesday’s game against the Rockies in Denver. J.P. Hoornstra of The Orange County Register adds that the club will wait to see how Muncy feels following Tuesday’s game before determining whether or not he’s ready to play on back-to-back days.

Muncy’s return figures to provide a huge boost to a beleaguered Dodgers club that’s been outscored 44-29 since he last played on June 11. While the 32-year-old slugger has hit above the Mendoza line just once in the past four seasons, his overall slash line of .214/.342/.450 is good for a wRC+ that’s 18% better than league average during that time frame. That’s thanks to Muncy sporting a combination of power and plate discipline that stands among the game’s best. Since joining the Dodgers in 2018, Muncy ranks 4th in the NL in both walk rate (15.4%) and home runs (157). Michael Busch has held down the fort at third base while Muncy was on the shelf.

Also set to re-join the club in the coming days is lefty Julio Urias, who Hoornstra notes is expected to return to the club during next weekend’s series in Kansas City. A free agent at season’s end, Urias will look to improve upon the uncharacteristic 4.39 ERA and 5.30 FIP he posted across his first 11 starts of the season prior to hitting the injured list. Urias figures to be among the top free agents available this offseason behind Shohei Ohtani, even after his struggles to start the season, given his pedigree as a hurler with a career ERA of 2.95 who won’t turn 27 until August.

Hoornstra adds that, according to Roberts, young right-handers Emmet Sheehan and Bobby Miller both figure to remain in the rotation even after Urias is activated. Roberts heaped praise on the pair of youngsters, describing their performance at the big league level so far as “100th percentile” when it comes to handling the opportunity to pitch in the majors. Entering play today, Sheehan has posted a 1.50 ERA across two starts with the club while Miller has impressed to the tune of a 2.83 ERA in five starts.

That figures to leave right-hander Noah Syndergaard without a job in the rotation going forward. As noted by Hoornstra, the right-hander threw three simulated innings prior to today’s game against the Astros, without being hindered by the blister that sent him to the 15-day IL earlier this month. That being said, Roberts described Syndergaard’s session today as simply “checking a box” for the right-hander, adding that “we’re still a ways away” from Syndergaard returning to the active roster. After signing a one-year deal with the Dodgers this past winter, Syndergaard has struggled badly with a 7.16 ERA in 55 1/3 innings of work.

Dodgers Place Max Muncy On Injured List

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The Dodgers announced a handful of moves before tonight’s series opener with the Giants. Right-hander Emmet Sheehan was selected to start tonight, as previously reported. Los Angles also recalled infield prospect Michael Busch from Triple-A Oklahoma City. They put Max Muncy on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to June 13, with a left hamstring strain while optioning right-hander Michael Grove to Triple-A.

Muncy has been hobbled by the hamstring for the past few days. He’d hoped to avoid the IL but still isn’t at full strength. Skipper Dave Roberts downplayed real concern, saying the club was confident the power-hitting infielder would be back once first eligible a week from now (relayed by Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic).

Chris Taylor is getting the start at third base tonight. Busch could also factor into that mix as part of his second MLB stint. The former first-round pick got into seven games earlier in the year, hitting .211/.348/.211 over 23 trips to the dish.

Sheehan, on the other hand, is making his big league debut. It’s more than just a spot start for the Boston College product. Roberts said they’re likely to give Sheehan a couple turns through the rotation with Grove heading to the minors (relayed by Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times). Grove has had a tough go this season, allowing an 8.10 ERA over 30 innings across seven appearances.

Looking Ahead To Upcoming Club Options: NL West

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We’re roughly a third of the way through the 2023 season. Players have had a couple months to build something of a performance track record that’ll play a role in their future contracts. With that in mind, MLBTR will take a look over the coming days at players whose contracts contain team or mutual options to gauge the early trajectory for those upcoming decisions.

We’ll go division by division and open things in the National League West:

Arizona Diamondbacks

Chafin lingered in free agency over the winter after opting out of his deal with the Tigers. The seeming lack of market interest was perplexing given the lefty reliever’s consistent effectiveness over the past few seasons. He’s carried that over into his second stint in the desert. Through 20 1/3 innings, Chafin owns a 3.10 ERA. He’s punched out 36% of opposing hitters on a huge 16.2% swinging strike percentage, both of which would be career-high marks. He’s not a prototypical fireballing reliever but he’s demonstrated he’s capable of missing bats and thriving in high-leverage situations for the past few years. The $6.5MM net decision on next year’s option looks more than reasonable if he keeps this up.

  • Zach Davies: $5.5MM mutual option ($300K buyout, rises to $500K with 16+ starts)

Davies has been limited to three starts by a left oblique strain. He has allowed eight runs with a modest 10:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 12 2/3 innings. There’s not much to go on yet in terms of 2023 performance but Davies looked like a borderline fifth starter the previous two years. The Diamondbacks have enough young pitching they seem likelier to buy him out unless the soft-tossing righty rediscovers his 2019-20 form for the stretch run.

  • Miguel Castro: $5MM option vests with 60+ appearances; would become $6MM player option with 40+ games finished (no buyout)

Castro has already pitched 26 times since signing with Arizona over the winter. He’s on pace to easily surpass the 60-appearance threshold needed to vest next year’s $5MM option if he can avoid the injured list. It could be a closer call as to whether he can turn that guaranteed $5MM salary into a $6MM player option; Castro has finished 12 games thus far, putting him just off the 40-game pace he’d need to do so. (He’s on pace for 36 games finished). Castro has been effective — a 2.22 ERA with roughly average strikeout, walk and swinging strike numbers through 24 1/3 innings — so vesting the player option and retesting the market isn’t out of the question.

Melancon struggled to a 4.66 ERA in 56 innings during his first season in Arizona. He hasn’t pitched this year on account of a Spring Training shoulder strain. Melancon might return in the second half but this is trending towards the team buying him out.

Colorado Rockies

Márquez underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this month. He’ll miss the majority of next season as he rehabs. A healthy Márquez would’ve made this an easy call for the Rockies to exercise but the procedure means they’ll buy him out. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Rox try to bring him back on a lesser salary or a multi-year deal with an eye towards 2025.

Hand’s peripherals had fallen back between 2021-22 from his All-Star peak. He’s continued to keep runs off the board and seen a notable bounceback in his strikeout rate since a Spring Training deal with Colorado. Hand owns a 3.20 ERA through 19 2/3 frames while striking out 33.7% of batters faced on a decent 11.6% swinging strike percentage. The veteran southpaw has dominated left-handed hitters and is yet to allow a home run this season. If he maintains this form, he’ll be one of the top reliever trade candidates this summer. If Colorado hangs onto him, they could be faced with an interesting decision as to whether to keep him around for an extra $6.5MM next winter.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers signed Muncy to a $13.5MM deal last summer even as he was amidst his worst season since landing in L.A. They’ve been rewarded with a massive bounceback showing. Muncy is tied for second in the majors with 17 home runs. He’s only hitting .208 but carrying a strong .340 on-base percentage thanks to an elite 15.8% walk rate. The $10MM price point would be an easy decision for the Dodgers if Muncy keeps up anything approaching this pace.

Los Angeles brought Hudson back last summer on the heels of a season-ending ACL tear. The veteran reliever hasn’t recovered as quickly from that procedure as he’d hoped. Hudson hasn’t pitched yet this season. He told reporters last night he’ll throw a bullpen session this week but is without a timeline for a return to game action (via Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times). It remains to be seen how he’ll look when he takes the mound.

  • Alex Reyes: $3MM team option with escalators ($100K buyout)

The Dodgers took a $1.1MM flier on Reyes after he lost the 2022 season to shoulder surgery. He’s on the 60-day injured list and not expected to be a factor until around the All-Star Break. This one remains to be determined based on his post-rehab form.

  • Blake Treinen (option value between $1-7MM dependent on time spent on IL)

Treinen underwent surgery to repair the rotator cuff and labrum in his throwing shoulder last November. He won’t pitch much, if at all, this season. Treinen’s contract contains an option with a floating value between $1MM and $7MM depending on how much time he spends on the injured list and the issue that puts him on the shelf. Its precise value is yet to be determined, but MLBTR has confirmed it’ll land towards the lower end of that range given Treinen’s surgery.

San Diego Padres

  • Nick Martinez: team has two-year, $32MM option; if declined, Martinez has two-year, $16MM player option

Martinez has taken on a similar swing role as he served during his first year in San Diego. The right-hander started his first four outings and pitched reasonably well. He was nevertheless bumped back into relief thereafter. For the second consecutive season, Martinez has proven a key multi-inning arm out of the bullpen. He’s posted a 1.35 ERA with a quality 20:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 20 relief innings, holding opponents to a pitiful .240/.278/.267 batting line.

There’s little question of Martinez’s effectiveness in a relief role, though a $16MM average annual value could be pricy if the organization isn’t planning on giving him another look out of the rotation. Perhaps Martinez’s production over the final four months makes this a clearer decision for San Diego by season’s end. As of now, it looks like a borderline call — not too dissimilar from Martinez’s question of whether to opt out of three years and $18MM last winter. The Padres liked him enough to subsequently re-sign him to a $26MM guarantee with the complex option structure.

  • Michael Wacha: team has two-year, $32MM option; if declined, Wacha has $6.5MM player option (with successive player options for 2025-26)

Wacha lingered in free agency last winter. Clubs seemed reluctant to buy into his solid results for the Red Sox, a reflection of middling strikeout and ground-ball numbers. Since landing in San Diego, he’s basically repeating last year’s script. The run prevention is excellent; he’s allowed a 3.45 ERA through 57 1/3 innings over ten starts. Wacha is again throwing strikes and keeping runs off the board despite roughly average strikeout and swinging strike rates.

Maintaining a mid-3.00s ERA for a second straight season might build confidence in his ability to outperform ERA estimators that suggest he’s more of a solid #4 starter than a mid-rotation arm. That said, Wacha doesn’t look all that different now than he did three months ago, when he signed a four-year guarantee with a $6.5MM average annual value. A jump to the $16MM per-year range could be a tougher sell for San Diego, although there’s little doubt Wacha would opt out of the final three years and $18.5MM on his contract if he keeps pitching like this and the Padres decline their end.

San Francisco Giants

Cobb has pitched well since signing a two-year deal with San Francisco over the 2021-22 offseason. He carries a 3.05 ERA through his first 11 starts this year. Cobb’s 60.6% ground-ball rate is stellar and he’s posted average strikeout and walk numbers (21.3% and 6.7%, respectively). An $8MM net decision would be an easy call for the Giants to exercise if Cobb maintains this pace. He’s dealt with injuries in the past but managed 149 2/3 innings over 28 starts last year and has avoided the IL in 2023.

All stats through play Monday.

Quick Hits: Astros, Santana, Pagan, Muncy, Miller

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The Astros don’t have an off-day until June 12, so the team had been considering moving to a six-man rotation to help keep their starters fresh during this busy stretch of the schedule.  However, manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including the Houston Chronicle’s Danielle Lerner) that the team might be forced to stick with a five-man alignment just due to a lack of available starting depth, since prospect Forrest Whitley has been placed on the Triple-A injured list due to a right lat strain.  Whitley was the team’s top option for a spot start or two, and now Ronel Blanco might be the next candidate if Houston does indeed opt for a sixth starter.

Jose Urquidy and Lance McCullers Jr. aren’t expected back until around the All-Star break, while Luis Garcia’s season has already been ended by Tommy John surgery.  The injury situation has left the Astros short on starting pitching, and Whitley’s lat strain has again delayed his MLB debut.  Once one of the sport’s top prospects, Whitley’s minor league career has been interrupted by a 50-game PED suspension in 2018, and by a Tommy John surgery that cost him the entire 2021 season.

More on other injury situations that arose from today’s games…

  • Carlos Santana left during the sixth inning of the Pirates’ 6-3 loss to the Mariners today due to what the Bucs described as lumbar spine muscular tightness.  It would certainly seem like Santana will miss a couple of games to recovery, and a trip to the injured list is possible if his back problem doesn’t subside.  Connor Joe is the likeliest candidate for first base duty in Santana’s absence, but Pittsburgh might now be facing a depth problem at first base since Ji-Man Choi isn’t eligible to return from the 60-day IL until at least mid-July.
  • Twins reliever Emilio Pagan faced only one batter in today’s 3-0 loss to the Blue Jays before departing due to a left hip flexor strain.  Both Pagan and manager Rocco Baldelli expressed hope that an IL stint wasn’t necessary, with Pagan telling the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Jerry Zgoda and other reporters that “hopefully we caught it early enough, that I’m good to go in a day or two.  I think I’ll be ready to go tomorrow if need be.”
  • Max Muncy left today’s game with a cramp in his left hamstring, and the Dodgers infielder told MLB.com and other media that he has been dealing with cramps throughout the weekend.  Muncy will undergo an MRI to further examine the issue, but for now, he is day to day.  Between a scorching-hot April and then a big slump for much of May, Muncy is still hitting .208/.340/.530 over 203 plate appearances this season, and he belted his 17th home run before his early exit today.
  • X-rays were negative on Owen Miller’s right forearm, after the Brewers infielder was removed as a precautionary measure after being hit by a pitch in today’s game.  Manager Craig Counsell told Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and other reporters that Miller is day to day, and could be back for the team’s next game on Tuesday (Monday is an off-day for the Brew Crew).  Miller’s hot bat has earned him more playing time, and after collecting two more hits today, Miller is slashing .330/.371/.513 over 124 PA.

Dodgers To Promote Michael Busch

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The Dodgers are going to promote prospect Michael Busch, reports Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times. Busch will take the roster spot of Max Muncy, who is going on the paternity list. Busch is already on the 40-man roster and won’t require a corresponding move in that regard. The Dodgers are off tonight but start a series in Pittsburgh tomorrow, when the move should be made official.

Busch, 25, was a first round pick of the Dodgers, getting selected 31st overall in 2019. He has since been posting excellent numbers in the minors, showing both tremendous power and patience in the box. He spent all of 2021 in Double-A, walking in 14.1% of his plate appearances and hitting 20 home runs in 107 games. Last year, he split his time between Double-A and Triple-A, hitting 32 home runs in 142 games between those two levels, walking in 11.5% of his trips to the plate. His combined .274/.365/.516 batting line translated to a 118 wRC+. Busch was added to the club’s 40-man roster in November to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. He’s off to a roaring start here in 2023, hitting .337/.461/.506 through 21 Triple-A games.

If there’s a knock on Busch, it’s on the defensive side of things. A first baseman in college, he’s spent a bit of time there recently but has seen the bulk of his action as a professional at second base. He’s also had short stints at third base and left field. Playing all of those different positions is less a reflection of versatility and more a suggestion that he’s not really a strong defender and is a work in progress as the Dodgers try to find a home for him in the field. Some evaluators have compared him to the player he’s replacing today, Muncy, as both players combine power and plate discipline with some degree of defensive versatility.

The Dodgers had a relatively modest offseason by their standards, letting notable players depart while signing various veterans to one-year deals. That’s allowed them to give some runway to various younger players, such as Miguel Vargas, James Outman, Michael Grove and Ryan Pepiot, though the latter two are now on the injured list. Busch will be latest youngster to get a crack at the big leagues.

Coming into this year, Busch was ranked around the middle of many top 100 prospect lists, including Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus. The first two of those are potentially significant, given the rules under the new collective bargaining agreement. It’s too late in the season for Busch to get to a full year of service time the traditional way, but his status as a top prospect provides him with an alternate path. Under the new CBA, players with less than 60 days of service time that are on two of the preseason top 100 lists of Baseball America, MLB Pipeline or ESPN can earn a full year of service regardless of when they were called up if they finish in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting.

That may end up being a fairly moot point in this case, as it seems possible that Busch will only get a brief stay in the bigs while Muncy is on the paternity list. But if he somehow manages to stick around and perform well enough to get some decent Rookie of the Year votes, he could get himself to that full year. He didn’t crack the top 100 at ESPN but the BA and MLB Pipeline ranks are enough to get that on the table.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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