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Max Scherzer

Rangers Place Max Scherzer On 15-Day Injured List

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The Rangers announced today that they’ve placed veteran right-hander Max Scherzer on the 15-day injured list due to a strained left hamstring. Right-hander Gerson Garabito was recalled to take Scherzer’s place on the active roster. Scherzer was scheduled to start tonight’s game against the Mariners, but that start will go to right-hander Dane Dunning instead.

The news brings to an end Scherzer’s 2024 season. In all, Scherzer managed just nine starts and 43 1/3 innings of work this year, the first time since his rookie year back in 2008 where he pitched less than 145 1/3 innings in a 162-game season. His results weren’t especially dominant even when healthy enough to take the mound, either. His 92.6mph average on his fastball was the lowest of his career, while a 22.6% strikeout rate, 3.95 ERA (100 ERA+), and a 4.18 FIP were all closer to pedestrian than elite. Since being acquired from the Mets in exchange for infield prospect Luisangel Acuna last summer, the veteran righty has pitched to a 3.57 ERA with a 3.79 FIP in 88 1/3 innings of work for Texas.

Those may turn out to be the only innings Scherzer pitches in a Rangers uniform. The future Hall of Famer’s contract in Texas runs only through the end of the current campaign, and he now appears ticketed for another trip through free agency. Scherzer celebrated his 40th birthday back in July and has dealt with a number of injury concerns this year ranging from offseason back surgery to nerve irritation in his throwing hand and triceps area on different occasions, but that hasn’t stopped the veteran from planning to continue pitching next year.

Even on the heels of the first injury-marred campaign of his career, Scherzer’s overall resume speaks for itself: the veteran boasts more than 3400 strikeouts in his career to go with eight career All-Star appearances, three Cy Young award wins, and three additional years wherein he was a finalist for the awards. The right-hander hasn’t posted an ERA north of 4.00 or a below-average ERA+ since 2011, and since then he sports a 2.95 ERA and 3.00 FIP, to say nothing of his career 3.78 ERA and 28.8% strikeout rate in the postseason and the two World Series rings he’s earned as a result of those 143 innings of work in the playoffs over the years. Still, at Scherzer’s age and coming off a platform season that raised plenty of questions about his ability to act as the workhorse starting pitcher he was throughout his 30s now that he’s entering his 40s, it’s not entirely clear what sort of market awaits the veteran ace in free agency.

Texas has exciting young arms like Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter coming up from the farm system to join a 2025 rotation corps that includes Dunning, Jacob deGrom, Jon Gray, Cody Bradford, and Tyler Mahle, but a return to the Rangers certainly can’t be ruled out. After all, Scherzer is likely to be joined in heading for free agency by Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, and Jose Urena. That quartet has combined to start 74 of the Rangers’ 154 games to this point in the season, or nearly half of the club’s contests. Given the combination of youth and lengthy injury histories at play in Texas’s current rotation group headed into next year, it would hardly be a surprise to see the club prioritize adding at least one arm to help carry the load of the departing starters.

Of course, a player with Scherzer’s storied resume could easily draw interest from plenty of other clubs in the league the league. The right-hander’s former teams in Detroit and D.C. are both seemingly ready to take the next step after lengthy rebuilding periods and could benefit from adding a veteran arm to their young rotations, and Scherzer’s hometown Cardinals appear likely to try and revamp their rotation mix behind staff ace Sonny Gray after their second-straight disappointing season. Given the ace’s talent when healthy and the fact that his age and recent injury history appear likely to limit him to a short-term deal, there’s countless teams that could reasonably be positioned to take a chance on the 40-year-old future Hall of Famer this winter.

Rangers Activate Jacob deGrom

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Today: The Rangers have officially activated deGrom to make his first start of the 2024 season. In a pair of corresponding moves, the team optioned right-hander Owen White to Triple-A and transferred Corey Seager to the 60-day IL.

Sept. 10: Jacob deGrom makes his season debut on Friday. The Rangers announced that the two-time Cy Young winner will start that evening’s game in Seattle. It will be his first major league appearance since April 2023. deGrom underwent Tommy John surgery last June.

While deGrom’s return comes too late to give Texas any hope of a playoff push, it’s part of what should be a very exciting series. The Rangers will turn to top prospect Kumar Rocker for his MLB debut in Thursday’s opener. deGrom goes the following night. Manager Bruce Bochy told the beat this evening that Max Scherzer will be reinstated from the 15-day injured list to start on Saturday (X link via Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News). Texas will need to create space on the 40-man roster for both Rocker and deGrom.

deGrom has gotten through four rehab starts within the past few weeks. He has mowed down minor league hitters, striking out 15 while allowing only five baserunners over 10 2/3 innings. deGrom tossed four scoreless innings in just 49 pitches with Double-A Frisco on Saturday. Kennedi Landry of MLB.com wrote over the weekend that the Rangers had envisioned deGrom throwing somewhere around 60 pitches in that outing, though they ultimately elected to cap him at four innings when he pitched so efficiently. That could point to a potential 65-75 pitch count during this week’s start.

The Rangers should get three or four starts from deGrom before the end of the season. They’re not going to be of much significance in the standings (beyond the indirect effect of playing the Mariners, a fringe contender, at least once). Getting deGrom back for a few starts should at least give the pitcher and the front office some comfort going into the offseason. deGrom had battled a handful of arm issues late in his Mets tenure. He only managed six starts and 30 1/3 innings with Texas before suffering the significant elbow injury.

Few players are more important to the Rangers’ hope of a return to contention in 2025. deGrom may still be the best pitcher on the planet when healthy. He was utterly dominant for the Mets when he was able to pitch. He’d carried that form over in his first month in a Texas uniform, working to a 2.67 earned run average while striking out almost 40% of batters faced.

deGrom is going into the third season of a five-year, $185MM free agent deal. He’ll make $40MM next season, followed by successive salaries of $38MM and $36MM through 2027. The Tommy John surgery triggered a conditional team option in his deal for 2028. That’s valued at $20MM, though deGrom could push it to $30MM if he finishes in the top five in Cy Young balloting in any of the next three years.

Scherzer, meanwhile, has been out since the start of August because of a shoulder issue. He’d also missed most of the season’s first half rehabbing offseason back surgery and battling a nerve problem in his throwing hand. Scherzer has been limited to eight starts this season, turning in a 3.89 ERA across 39 1/3 innings. The future Hall of Famer will be a free agent next offseason. Scherzer has already declared he intends to continue pitching; he’ll be one of the top risk/reward plays in the starting pitching class.

Rangers Notes: deGrom, Scherzer, Rocker

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Jacob deGrom’s 2024 debut finally appears imminent, after the two-time Cy Young Award winner completed his fourth and likely final minor league rehab outing on Saturday.  DeGrom has seemingly come out of that four-inning, 49-pitch appearance in good health, and is now set to make his return to the majors at some point during the Rangers’ upcoming six-game road trip that begins Tuesday.

“If it all goes well, he’ll be pitching for us next time around,” manager Bruce Bochy told MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry and other reporters.  “It’s pretty cool because it’s been a long road as these guys go through the rehab on the Tommy John.”

DeGrom had his Tommy John surgery in June 2023, and last pitched in a big league game on April 28, 2023.  After signing a five-year, $185MM free agent contract with Texas during the 2022-23 offseason, deGrom’s only contribution to the Rangers’ World Series season was six starts and 30 1/3 innings, albeit with a very impressive 2.67 ERA and his typically excellent strikeout and walk rates.

Statistics compiled during minor league rehab stints should always be taken with a grain of salt, but deGrom has looked quite sharp in posting an 0.84 ERA over 10 2/3 total innings in the minors.  As Landry noted, deGrom has been so dominant that he hasn’t been able to entirely hit his assigned rehab checkpoints.  In his start on Saturday, Bochy said deGrom was assigned for four innings or 60 pitches, yet deGrom breezed through Double-A opponents on just 49 pitches — the most he has thrown in any of his four rehab starts.

As the season enters its final three weeks, the Rangers’ title defense has resulted in only a 70-74 record and a longshot bid at a wild card berth.  DeGrom won’t be returning to a pennant race, but there’s some obvious benefit in getting back on a big league mound and shaking off some rust in advance of a hopefully normal offseason, and then a standard ramp-up in Spring Training.  At age 36 and with just 186 2/3 MLB innings pitched since Opening Day 2021, deGrom’s health history will always make him something of a question mark, yet he has continued to deliver whenever he has been able to pitch.

DeGrom could soon be joined by another veteran ace in Max Scherzer, whose minor league rehab stint got underway Saturday at Triple-A with four hitless innings of work on 53 pitches.  Right shoulder fatigue and then triceps discomfort has kept Scherzer on the injured list since the start of August, but a mechanical fix seems to have corrected his triceps issue, and Scherzer looked to be in good form on Saturday.

It seems possible that Scherzer could rejoin the Rangers as early as this week’s road trip, depending on whether or not the team feels he needs any more rehab work to more fully build his pitch count.  The Rangers could also activate Scherzer and then allow him to rebuild at the MLB level, either on a limited innings count or with a piggyback pitcher working behind Scherzer.

Heading into the season, Texas planned to have deGrom, Scherzer (who was then recovering from offseason back surgery), and Tyler Mahle (Tommy John surgery) all back around the middle of the year, providing the rotation with some reinforcements down the stretch.  While a few setbacks delayed these pitchers on that projected timeline, the bigger problem was other injuries and a lack of hitting that torpedoed the Rangers’ season.

Ironically, this planned surplus of pitching has now come at a time when the Rangers might prefer to look at their future arms.  One such hurler is top prospect Kumar Rocker, who has opened some eyes since his own return from a May 2023 Tommy John surgery.  The third overall pick of the 2022 draft has an 0.46 ERA over 19 2/3 innings in Double-A ball this season, and an 1.80 ERA in 10 innings since being promoted to Triple-A Round Rock.

These numbers have been impressive enough that Rangers GM Chris Young told reporters (including Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News) that the team hadn’t closed the door on the possibility of Rocker making his big league debut at some point before the 2024 campaign is over.  Grant ran through the various factors involved, including Rocker’s rough 50-inning cap in his first season back from TJ surgery, and the fact that Texas would be putting Rocker on the 40-man roster perhaps earlier than necessary.  With three weeks remaining in the season, there’s still time for Rocker to bank a few more Triple-A innings, and if he keeps forcing the issue, the Rangers still have time to perhaps have the right-hander make a cameo after the minor league season is over.

AL West Notes: Blanco, Scherzer, Soriano

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The Astros have been using a six-man rotation for the last couple of weeks, in order to both ease Justin Verlander’s return from the 15-day injured list and to help manage the innings of Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti.  With the team preparing to move back to the traditional five-man staff, GM Dana Brown said on his weekend radio show (hat tip to The Athletic’s Chandler Rome) that Blanco will probably be the pitcher moved into relief work.  The right-hander had a 4.98 ERA in his last seven starts and 34 1/3 prior to today’s start, when he looked sharp in tossing five shutout innings in the Astros’ 7-2 win over the Royals.

Blanco’s unexpected emergence has been a revelation for a Houston team hit hard by rotation injuries earlier this season.  He threw a no-hitter against the Blue Jays in his very first start of 2024, setting the tone for a year that has seen him post a 3.03 ERA over 148 1/3 innings.  The concern is that Blanco has already topped his previous high of 125 1/3 innings across the majors and minors in 2023, and Houston naturally wants to keep him fresh for the playoffs.  The Astros’ rotation has been so dominant in recent weeks that they can afford to lose Blanco’s production, and there’s plenty of upside to using Blanco as a bullpen weapon down the stretch and into October.

More items from around the AL West….

  • It has been over a month since Max Scherzer last pitched, as he was dealing with right shoulder fatigue and then had a Double-A rehab start on August 23 canceled for unspecified reasons.  Scherzer discussed the situation with MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry and other reporters this weekend, saying he was hampered by a nerve problem in his triceps area, but it wasn’t actual nerve damage, as tests revealed.  A change to Scherzer’s throwing motion might’ve “solved this,” as “there was something mechanically going on with my elbow and elbow retraction that was making that radial nerve of my tricep get irritated,” Scherzer said.  “Yesterday, I got on the mound to do a full bullpen and no issue….Structurally, I’m fine.  Strength, I’m fine.  I don’t have an injury here.  This was just a nerve irritation.”  Scherzer is now hopeful that he’ll be able to properly resume his rehab program within the week, and he believes he’ll return to the Rangers rotation before the season is over.
  • Jose Soriano was placed on the 15-day injured list on August 17, but he won’t be activated when first eligible.  It isn’t yet clear if Soriano will return at all in 2024, as Angels GM Perry Minasian told the media (including MLB.com) that the team is considering shutting Soriano down.  The right-hander was sent to the IL due to arm fatigue, which isn’t unexpected given that Soriano has thrown a career-high 113 innings this season.  His previous high was 82 1/3 innings in the minors in 2019, before two separate Tommy John surgeries put Soriano on the shelf for almost three full years.  He made his big league debut as a reliever in 2023 and moved into the rotation this season, posting a very respectable 3.42 ERA across his 113 frames.  With some solid results already in the books, the Angels might opt to just let Soriano get a head start on his 2025 preparations rather than ramp him back up for another outing or two this season.

Max Scherzer Scratched From Planned Rehab Start

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Rangers right-hander Max Scherzer was scheduled to make a rehab outing for Double-A Frisco tonight but that will no longer happen. Per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, the veteran has been scratched from that start, with the club providing little information about his current status.

It’s been a challenging season for Scherzer, who has never really dealt with a significant injury before. Apart from his 2008 debut and the shortened 2020 season, he has never thrown less than 145 1/3 innings in a major league season. He logged at least 170 frames in each full season from 2009 to 2021.

But he is certainly going to fall short of that range this year. He has thrown 39 1/3 innings in the majors and he’s running out of time to add to that total. He underwent back surgery in the offseason and it was initially hoped that he could be back at some point in May, but that didn’t come to pass.

He began a rehab assignment in late April but that was halted after just one outing due to some soreness in his right thumb. Grant relayed on May 11 that Scherzer was dealing with a nerve issue running down his arm and had received a cortisone injection. Grant provided an update in a May 15 column, noting that Scherzer had received a Botox injection, a treatment for neurogenic thoracic outlet syndrome but also other nerve pain. In a May 28 column, Grant noted that neurogenic TOS normally features pain going from the shoulder to the finger but Scherzer’s case was the opposite, with pain going up his arm from his thumb. In another update on May 31, Grant again mentioned neurogenic TOS but noted that Scherzer has maintained the issue is not TOS.

Scherzer was eventually able to get healthy enough to get on the mound. He made two more rehab starts in June and was reinstated from the injured list that month. He made eight starts at the big league level, throwing the aforementioned 39 1/3 innings, allowing 3.89 earned runs per nine. But in the first week of August, he landed back on the IL due to some right shoulder fatigue. As mentioned, he was planned to start a rehab assignment tonight but that won’t happen now.

It’s undoubtedly a frustrating experience for Scherzer with the constant starting and stopping this year, but there’s little reason for the club to push him at this point if he’s not 100%. The club is 59-69 and 10.5 games back of the Astros in the West. Both the Playoff Odds at FanGraphs and the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus put their chances of cracking the postseason at less than a half of a percentage point.

With their season more or less on life support, the club and Scherzer can focus on his long-term health. As of last week, the 40-year-old said he was planning to pitch again in 2025. He won’t take the hill tonight and further developments will undoubtedly be forthcoming in the next few weeks.

Scherzer is scheduled to hit free agency at season’s end and is health status will likely play a key role in how the winter plays out for him. Plenty of clubs would be interested in him based on his amazing track record but the mention of neurogenic TOS will undoubtedly raise some flags. Last summer, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post looked at the two different kinds of TOS and why the results are often so divergent. Merrill Kelly once had venous TOS but was able to recover and has pitch at a high level for years afterwards. Whereas neurogenic TOS is often more debilitating, with pitchers like Stephen Strasburg significantly hampered by the condition.

Again, Scherzer has insisted he is not dealing with neurogenic TOS, though he does have a nerve issue of some kind. Whatever is ailing him, it’s been a significant roadblock this year. He will undoubtedly be exploring all avenues with medical experts in the coming weeks to find a path forward towards his goal of pitching next year. As of today, he has a 3.16 ERA in almost 3,000 career innings pitched and is tenth on the all-time strikeout list.

Rangers To Place Tyler Mahle On Injured List

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Rangers manager Bruce Bochy informed the club’s beat today that right-hander Tyler Mahle is going to be placed on the 15-day injured list with some shoulder stiffness. Righty Jon Gray will be reinstated from his own IL stint in a corresponding move. Kennedi Landry of MLB.com was among those who relayed the news on X.

Mahle, now 29, underwent Tommy John surgery last summer just before hitting free agency for the first time in his career. The Rangers then signed him to a two-year, $22MM deal, knowing that they wouldn’t be able to count on him to join the club until some point in the middle of the 2024 season at the earliest. He was on the IL until two weeks ago and has since made three starts. He went five innings in the first of those, then four and two thirds, followed by just three innings in Sunday’s game.

It’s unclear if the shoulder was bothering him in his last outing or has been nagging at him since. While he was removed after just three innings, he also allowed four earned runs on six hits while recording just one strikeout, so his removal might simply have been about his performance rather than his health.

Shoulder issues have been a problem for him before, as he only made six starts after July 2 in the 2022 season due to a strain and some inflammation. Between those shoulder issues and his recent Tommy John layoff, it’s been three straight seasons of having a truncated workload.

The Rangers have fallen back in the standings lately and are now 11 games back of the Astros in the West and 12.5 games back of a Wild Card spot. Both the Playoff Odds at FanGraphs and the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus give them just a 0.4% chance of cracking the postseason at this point.

With the club’s season on the ropes, they can make their decisions based on optimizing results next year. Ideally, Mahle would be building up his workload since he hasn’t pitched much in recent years, but pitching through an injury would run the risk of aggravating a shoulder that has given him problems in the past, so it seems the club has decided a breather is the best decision for now. Assuming the issue isn’t major, perhaps he can return for the final few weeks and log some innings in September.

Going forward, the club’s rotation could be facing notable changes. Jacob deGrom is starting a rehab assignment this week and Max Scherzer will be as well, per Landry on X. When those two come back, they will likely slot into the rotation with Gray, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney, with Cody Bradford and Dane Dunning also in the mix and perhaps Mahle coming back down the line.

Looking ahead to next year, Scherzer and Heaney are impending free agents with Eovaldi perhaps heading to the open market along with them. Eovaldi’s contract has a conditional $20MM player option that he unlocks if he totals 300 innings pitched over 2023 and 2024 or finishes in the top five in Cy Young voting this year. Even if he unlocks that option, which is possible since he’s at 271 innings since the start of last year, he might turn it down and elect free agency since he’s having a strong season and could look for a bigger guarantee in free agency.

Without those three, the Texas rotation for 2025 projects to include deGrom, Mahle and Gray. The latter two, as mentioned, are coming off lengthy Tommy John rehabs and could have workload concerns next year. Bradford has also missed significant time this year, due to a low back strain, and only has 14 big league starts to his name. Dunning has often been in the club’s swingman/sixth starter role, moving between the bullpen and rotation as needed. Prospects Jack Leiter and Owen White are on the 40-man roster but both have ongoing control issues.

The Rangers are still the reigning World Series champions for a few more months but the title defense has obviously not been what they had in mind. Perhaps that will lead them to shake up their rotation mix in the offseason, as there’s plenty of uncertainty in next year’s group.

AL Notes: Verlander, Garcia, Buxton, Paddack, Rangers, Skubal

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Justin Verlander “felt strong” during a bullpen session today in Houston, Astros manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle), which should line Verlander up to return to the rotation on Wednesday when the Astros face the Red Sox.  A neck strain has kept Verlander from pitching in the majors since June 9, and he has amassed only 57 innings this season due both this current ailment and a bout of shoulder inflammation coming out of Spring Training.  However, Verlander has completed two minor league rehab outings and today’s bullpen session looks like the final checkpoint on his path to recovery.

While things are looking promising for Verlander, Luis Garcia is more of a question mark.  The Athletic’s Chandler Rome wrote (via X) that as of Friday, Garcia hadn’t yet resumed throwing since he was shut down due to soreness over two weeks ago.  This is the second time Garcia has hit a setback in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, and since Garcia went under the knife in May 2023, a normal rehab timeline would’ve had him ready to return to the majors by this point over 15 months past his procedure date.  Though the Astros have said Garcia might return as a reliever rather than as a starter, he is running short on time to fully ramp up his readiness to rejoin Houston’s pitching staff in any capacity.

More from around the American League…

  • Twins athletic trainer Nick Paparesta updated reporters (including The Athletic’s Dan Hayes) about several injured Minnesota players on Saturday, including Byron Buxton and Chris Paddack.  Buxton received a cortisone shot in his inflamed right hip and recently worked out in a pool, so Paparesta feels “we’re kind of heading in the right direction.”  This comes as a relief given Buxton’s long history of injury problems, including a more serious hip issue in 2022 that Paparesta feels may have created scar tissue related to Buxton’s current discomfort.  As for Paddack, he is set to undergo an MRI on August 27, which will be his second scan since a left forearm strain sent him to the 15-day injured list on July 17.  More will be known on Paddack’s timeline if the next MRI comes back clean, and he has already started playing games of catch in preparation to return to Minnesota’s staff before the season is over.
  • Three of the Rangers’ injured veteran starters took steps in their recoveries over the weekend, as Max Scherzer threw a bullpen session today and Jacob deGrom and Jon Gray each threw three-inning simulated games on Saturday.  Gray seems to be the closest to returning, as he told MLB.com that he could return as a reliever during the Rangers’ series with the Pirates that begins tomorrow, if he isn’t lined up for a proper start during a series with the Guardians that gets underway Friday.  A right groin strain sent Gray to the 15-day IL on July 29, while deGrom could begin a Double-A rehab assignment this week in his first game action since undergoing Tommy John surgery in June 2023.  Scherzer hasn’t pitched since July 30 due to shoulder fatigue, and Texas manager Bruce Bochy said it hasn’t yet been decided if Scherzer will also embark on a rehab assignment next, or if he’ll first take part in a live batting practice session.
  • Tarik Skubal had another quality start tonight in the Tigers’ 3-2 win over the Yankees, as the star southpaw limited New York to one run (on three hits and four walks) over six innings of work.  Skubal is up to a career-high 155 1/3 innings pitched, and manager A.J. Hinch told MLB Network’s Jon Morosi and other reporters that Sunday “could very well be his last start on regular rest” this season.  Since Detroit is all but out of the wild card race, the team has no real reason to put too many extra miles on Skubal’s arm, though naturally the team isn’t going to shut him down completely as he pursues the AL Cy Young Award.

Max Scherzer Planning To Pitch In 2025

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This has been a challenging season for Max Scherzer, who has been limited to eight starts. Back surgery and a thumb injury kept the three-time Cy Young winner from making his season debut until the middle of June. He has been back on the injured list for the last two weeks because of shoulder fatigue. The defending World Series winners have plummeted 11 games below .500 with a terrible month of August.

Unsurprisingly, it doesn’t seem Scherzer is comfortable with this season as a swan song. The eight-time All-Star told reporters that he expects to continue playing in 2025 (link via Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). “When I’m out there, I’ve been able to compete,” Scherzer noted. “I can still pitch at a high level. I look at things like my slider, which I went into the season wanting to fix, and it’s been really good. I still see myself as able to compete and win.”

Scherzer, who turned 40 in July, has been the fourth-oldest player in the majors this season. Two-time teammate Justin Verlander, Jesse Chavez, and Charlie Morton are older. Scherzer nevertheless remains capable of performing well when healthy. He has turned in a 3.89 ERA with a solid 24.1% strikeout percentage and an excellent 5.1% walk rate across 39 1/3 innings. Those aren’t vintage Scherzer numbers, yet it’s still quality mid-rotation production. That’s despite him pitching at what appears to be less than full strength. His velocity was down a tick relative to last season, which could be attributable to the various injuries through which he has battled.

An injury-plagued year is going to raise more concern for a player of Scherzer’s age. Still, this will be the first season (excluding the shortened schedule) in which he hasn’t reached 145 innings since his 2008 rookie year. While he battled injuries during last year’s postseason and was eventually pulled from the World Series roster, he still combined for 162 1/3 innings between the Mets and Rangers in the regular season and playoffs.

Texas is all but officially buried in the playoff race this year, but Scherzer came out of a bullpen session without issue today and looks to be on track for a return from the injured list relatively shortly. He could make another six or seven starts to finish the season.

Scherzer seems set on continuing his Hall of Fame career for an 18th year. There’s nevertheless uncertainty about where he’ll be playing. He’s in the final season of the three-year, $130MM free agent contract which he signed with New York in 2021. He’ll return to the open market during the upcoming offseason. Scherzer certainly isn’t going to match the three-year term or record-setting $43.333MM average annual value of his current contract, but he should still command a strong one-year deal.

Players like Jack Flaherty, Frankie Montas and Luis Severino all landed guarantees between $13MM and $16MM as rebound candidates last offseason. Scherzer is much older than that trio but he’s had a more accomplished career and has the ability to turn in an ace-caliber year. A deal in the $15-20MM range on a high-payroll club with legitimate World Series aspirations could be viable. That might be Texas, though they’ll need to make other moves in the rotation and strengthen the bottom part of the lineup if they’re to make a renewed push to contend.

What Would It Take For The Rangers To Duck Under The Luxury Tax Line?

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The 2023 Angels entered the trade deadline as something of a long-shot contender but nevertheless embarked on an aggressive win-now push. In an effort both to break their postseason drought and perhaps to show impending free agent Shohei Ohtani a commitment to winning, the Halos went out and acquired Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, C.J. Cron, Randal Grichuk and Dominic Leone. It was a valiant, if not desperate effort, and it fell short almost immediately. By mid-August, the Angels were buried in the standings with virtually no hope of climbing back into contention. With the former August trade waiver system no longer in place, GM Perry Minasian and his staff waved the white flag in a new and more drastic way: they put more than one quarter of the roster on outright waivers.

By placing Giolito, Lopez, Cron, Grichuk, Leone, Matt Moore, Hunter Renfroe and Tyler Anderson on waivers, the Angels positioned themselves to A) save an enormous amount of money, B) potentially dip back under the luxury tax threshold (they succeeded), and C) impact several postseason races ... just not in the way they originally envisioned. For those who don't recall, the Guardians claimed Giolito, Lopez and Moore. Renfroe was claimed by the Reds. Leone went to the Mariners. Grichuk and Anderson were not claimed.

Last week, MLBTR's Darragh McDonald previewed a handful of veterans who could hit waivers in just this fashion later this month. Since Darragh wrote that piece, one team has emerged as an even likelier candidate to go down this road; as the Astros have gone on an eight-game winning streak and the Mariners have kept in arm's reach, the Rangers have fallen to a daunting 10 games back in the AL West and 10.5 back in the Wild Card hunt. FanGraphs gives the Rangers a 0.6% chance of reaching the postseason. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA is more bullish ... at 2.4%. Texas isn't mathematically eliminated, but they're not far off.

As Darragh noted last week and as both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Jon Becker of FanGraphs have explored this week, there's an argument that the Rangers should jettison some of their impending free agents and cut back costs. In his column, Becker looked at how much money the Rangers would save by placing their impending free agents on waivers two days before the Aug. 31 postseason eligibility deadline. Rosenthal noted within his column that there's no clear path to dipping under the luxury tax for the Rangers, "so their only motivation would be to save on salary."

Technically that's true, but it's also not impossible for the Rangers to duck under the threshold without placing their entire roster on waivers for the taking. While sneaking under the tax threshold is a tall order, it could potentially be done without completely decimating next season's roster. Let's take a look at how they could get there and at what type of benefits they'd receive for doing so.

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West Notes: Eovaldi, Scherzer, Gurriel, Musgrove, Graveman

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The Rangers are heading to Boston for a series with the Red Sox beginning tomorrow, but Nathan Eovaldi and Max Scherzer are both going to Texas for injury-related checkups, GM Chris Young told the Associated Press and other reporters.  Eovaldi left his start Saturday after three innings due to tightness in his left side, though the meeting with team doctor Keith Meister is seen as precautionary since Eovaldi “thinks he can pitch through” the issue, Young said.  “He’s so important to us that we’re not sure we want to push him.  We may end up pushing him back or skipping a start.  We don’t think it’s an IL at this point, but we will clearly decide that once he sees Dr. Meister.”

Scherzer was placed on the 15-day injured list on July 31 due to right shoulder fatigue, and Young said the veteran “just hasn’t turned the corner with his shoulder.  Our hope is that maybe we get back and explore some other diagnostic measures and get him back on the mound.  But I don’t know what the timetable is going to be.”  Between this IL stint and an extended absence at the start of the season while recovering from back surgery and a nerve issue in his thumb, Scherzer has pitched only 39 1/3 innings over eight starts.

More will be known about both pitchers’ situations after the tests are complete, but there is clear cause for concern given how both Eovaldi and Scherzer have checkered injury histories.  For Scherzer in particular, his situation is worrisome given how much time he has already missed, and whether or not his abnormal ramp-up this year simply kept him from being fully ready to pitch.  If either Scherzer or Eovaldi are revealed to have more serious issues, it could put the rest of their seasons in jeopardy, as the Rangers might consider shutdowns if the team continues to fall back in the playoff race.

Some other notes from both the AL and NL West divisions…

  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. left the Diamondbacks’ 12-5 win over the Phillies today due to left hamstring tightness, but manager Torey Lovullo downplayed the injury in postgame comments to MLB.com and other media.  Lovullo said the removal was precautionary and that Gurriel is day-to-day, plus the outfielder isn’t even being sent for any tests at this time.  Gurriel is hitting .269/.302/.414 with 14 homers over 453 plate appearances as the team’s regular left fielder, translating to a 98 wRC+ in the first season of the three-year, $42MM contract he signed to rejoin the D’Backs last offseason.
  • The Padres will be activating Joe Musgrove from the 60-day injured list to start tomorrow’s game against the Pirates, after bone spurs in his right elbow cost him about two and a half months on the shelf.  Talking with Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, Musgrove made changes to his mechanics and delivery in order to help manage the injury.  “The spur is going to be there, the structure of the elbow is not going to change unless I get an operation,” Musgrove said.  “So [I’m] trying to find a way to be able to throw and still execute and still have good stuff.  Hopefully it will alleviate some of the stress on the elbow is kind of the goal….I felt great in this build back.”  Between this injury and a previous elbow-related stint on the IL, Musgrove has thrown only 49 1/3 innings this season, with a shaky 5.66 ERA.
  • Kendall Graveman wasn’t expected to pitch in 2024 after a shoulder surgery last January, but his hopes at an in-season comeback gained some momentum Saturday when he threw a 10-pitch bullpen session.  Astros manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the San Diego Union-Tribune) that Graveman hit 86-87mph in his first time throwing off a mound since the surgery.  As Kawahara notes, there might simply be not enough time left in the season for Graveman to get fully ramped up and then complete a minor league rehab assignment, but that won’t stop the veteran from trying.
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