Max Scherzer

Rangers right-hander Max Scherzer was scheduled to make a rehab outing for Double-A Frisco tonight but that will no longer happen. Per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, the veteran has been scratched from that start, with the club providing little information about his current status.

It’s been a challenging season for Scherzer, who has never really dealt with a significant injury before. Apart from his 2008 debut and the shortened 2020 season, he has never thrown less than 145 1/3 innings in a major league season. He logged at least 170 frames in each full season from 2009 to 2021.

But he is certainly going to fall short of that range this year. He has thrown 39 1/3 innings in the majors and he’s running out of time to add to that total. He underwent back surgery in the offseason and it was initially hoped that he could be back at some point in May, but that didn’t come to pass.

He began a rehab assignment in late April but that was halted after just one outing due to some soreness in his right thumb. Grant relayed on May 11 that Scherzer was dealing with a nerve issue running down his arm and had received a cortisone injection. Grant provided an update in a May 15 column, noting that Scherzer had received a Botox injection, a treatment for neurogenic thoracic outlet syndrome but also other nerve pain. In a May 28 column, Grant noted that neurogenic TOS normally features pain going from the shoulder to the finger but Scherzer’s case was the opposite, with pain going up his arm from his thumb. In another update on May 31, Grant again mentioned neurogenic TOS but noted that Scherzer has maintained the issue is not TOS.

Scherzer was eventually able to get healthy enough to get on the mound. He made two more rehab starts in June and was reinstated from the injured list that month. He made eight starts at the big league level, throwing the aforementioned 39 1/3 innings, allowing 3.89 earned runs per nine. But in the first week of August, he landed back on the IL due to some right shoulder fatigue. As mentioned, he was planned to start a rehab assignment tonight but that won’t happen now.

It’s undoubtedly a frustrating experience for Scherzer with the constant starting and stopping this year, but there’s little reason for the club to push him at this point if he’s not 100%. The club is 59-69 and 10.5 games back of the Astros in the West. Both the Playoff Odds at FanGraphs and the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus put their chances of cracking the postseason at less than a half of a percentage point.

With their season more or less on life support, the club and Scherzer can focus on his long-term health. As of last week, the 40-year-old said he was planning to pitch again in 2025. He won’t take the hill tonight and further developments will undoubtedly be forthcoming in the next few weeks.

Scherzer is scheduled to hit free agency at season’s end and is health status will likely play a key role in how the winter plays out for him. Plenty of clubs would be interested in him based on his amazing track record but the mention of neurogenic TOS will undoubtedly raise some flags. Last summer, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post looked at the two different kinds of TOS and why the results are often so divergent. Merrill Kelly once had venous TOS but was able to recover and has pitch at a high level for years afterwards. Whereas neurogenic TOS is often more debilitating, with pitchers like Stephen Strasburg significantly hampered by the condition.

Again, Scherzer has insisted he is not dealing with neurogenic TOS, though he does have a nerve issue of some kind. Whatever is ailing him, it’s been a significant roadblock this year. He will undoubtedly be exploring all avenues with medical experts in the coming weeks to find a path forward towards his goal of pitching next year. As of today, he has a 3.16 ERA in almost 3,000 career innings pitched and is tenth on the all-time strikeout list.

This has been a challenging season for Max Scherzer, who has been limited to eight starts. Back surgery and a thumb injury kept the three-time Cy Young winner from making his season debut until the middle of June. He has been back on the injured list for the last two weeks because of shoulder fatigue. The defending World Series winners have plummeted 11 games below .500 with a terrible month of August.

Unsurprisingly, it doesn’t seem Scherzer is comfortable with this season as a swan song. The eight-time All-Star told reporters that he expects to continue playing in 2025 (link via Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). “When I’m out there, I’ve been able to compete,” Scherzer noted. “I can still pitch at a high level. I look at things like my slider, which I went into the season wanting to fix, and it’s been really good. I still see myself as able to compete and win.”

Scherzer, who turned 40 in July, has been the fourth-oldest player in the majors this season. Two-time teammate Justin Verlander, Jesse Chavez, and Charlie Morton are older. Scherzer nevertheless remains capable of performing well when healthy. He has turned in a 3.89 ERA with a solid 24.1% strikeout percentage and an excellent 5.1% walk rate across 39 1/3 innings. Those aren’t vintage Scherzer numbers, yet it’s still quality mid-rotation production. That’s despite him pitching at what appears to be less than full strength. His velocity was down a tick relative to last season, which could be attributable to the various injuries through which he has battled.

An injury-plagued year is going to raise more concern for a player of Scherzer’s age. Still, this will be the first season (excluding the shortened schedule) in which he hasn’t reached 145 innings since his 2008 rookie year. While he battled injuries during last year’s postseason and was eventually pulled from the World Series roster, he still combined for 162 1/3 innings between the Mets and Rangers in the regular season and playoffs.

Texas is all but officially buried in the playoff race this year, but Scherzer came out of a bullpen session without issue today and looks to be on track for a return from the injured list relatively shortly. He could make another six or seven starts to finish the season.

Scherzer seems set on continuing his Hall of Fame career for an 18th year. There’s nevertheless uncertainty about where he’ll be playing. He’s in the final season of the three-year, $130MM free agent contract which he signed with New York in 2021. He’ll return to the open market during the upcoming offseason. Scherzer certainly isn’t going to match the three-year term or record-setting $43.333MM average annual value of his current contract, but he should still command a strong one-year deal.

Players like Jack Flaherty, Frankie Montas and Luis Severino all landed guarantees between $13MM and $16MM as rebound candidates last offseason. Scherzer is much older than that trio but he’s had a more accomplished career and has the ability to turn in an ace-caliber year. A deal in the $15-20MM range on a high-payroll club with legitimate World Series aspirations could be viable. That might be Texas, though they’ll need to make other moves in the rotation and strengthen the bottom part of the lineup if they’re to make a renewed push to contend.

The Rangers are the defending World Series champions but they currently sport a record of 46-50 that has them 7.5 games back of a Wild Card spot. They’re five games out in the AL West, where they trail the Mariners and Astros. With less than two weeks until the trade deadline, general manager Chris Young will have some decisions to make but is currently hoping his players make the decision for him.

“We are going to do everything we can to win this year,” Young tells Joel Sherman of The New York Post, though he also left some ambiguity by adding that he “wants to take as much time as possible to make a choice and hope in the next week [the results] make it clear we are buyers.”

The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs currently give them a 12.3% chance at cracking the postseason while the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are slightly more optimistic at 18.2%. Young and his staff will presumably be discussing all kinds of trade scenarios with other clubs in the coming days, as the Rangers host the Orioles for three games, the White Sox for four and then cross the northern border to play three in Toronto. They will then start a three-game set in St. Louis but the deadline will be on July 30, after just one game against the Cardinals.

It’s an interesting spot for Young and the Rangers to be in, with potential arguments for buying, selling or some kind of combination. The argument in favor of buying would largely hinge on the club having much better health in the second half than in the first.

On the position player side, both Evan Carter and Josh Jung are currently on the injured list. Carter struggled over the first two months of the season, hitting just .188/.272/.361 while battling back tightness that eventually put him on the shelf. Manager Bruce Bochy later described it as a stress reaction, per Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News, with the timeline still unclear. Jung has only played four games this year before being hit by a pitch and suffering a wrist fracture that required surgery. His rehab assignment was shut down a few weeks ago due to continued discomfort and his ramp-up is also somewhat murky.

On the pitching side, Andrew Heaney has been the only consistent rotation member. Each of Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Lorenzen and Jon Gray spent some time on the injured list, though each is currently active. Max Scherzer had offseason back surgery and began the season on the IL, then had his return delayed by a thumb injury. He has missed most of this season so far but returned in recent weeks and has taken the ball five times this year.

The rotation could be getting further reinforcements, with both Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle working back from Tommy John surgeries they underwent last summer. Dane Dunning and Cody Bradford are also on the IL and could return later in the year.

That theoretically stronger rotation and the possible returns of Carter and/or Jung could perhaps inspire the club to push hard at the deadline, hoping to gain steam for a strong second half. But it could also be an argument for doing some selling. Hypothetically, if everyone were to be healthy at some point in the coming months, the club would have nine rotation candidates in deGrom, Scherzer, Eovaldi, Gray, Mahle, Heaney, Lorenzen, Bradford and Dunning.

The club probably doesn’t want to bank on all of them being healthy at the same time, so they wouldn’t necessarily need to trim the number to five. Dunning has often pitched in relief and can be kept there. Bradford has a 1.40 ERA this year but in a small sample of three starts. Despite the strong results, the Rangers would be justified in optioning him to the minors if he were blocked by their more established guys.

But that still leaves seven solid veteran options that could all be healthy in the weeks to come. Perhaps the club will feel they could trade an impending free agent or two without really “selling” here in 2024 or hurting themselves too much in the future, something that MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently took a look at in a piece for Front Office subscribers. Lorenzen is on a one-year deal and set to return to the open market at season’s end. Heaney is in the final season of his two-year deal.

Scherzer is also slated for free agency at season’s end but has a full no-trade clause. He was recently asked on Foul Territory about waiving it again, as he did to come to the Rangers from the Mets, with that show relaying video on X. Scherzer said “I’m not gonna do that” before elaborating that he thought the club would play better and make it a moot point.

Eovaldi is in the final guaranteed year of his deal though there’s a vesting player option for 2025 he could potentially unlock. There were three ways for him to unlock that player option, though one of them involved making the 2024 All-Star team. Since he wasn’t chosen, he’s down to two paths. His best chance is to get to 300 combined innings pitched over 2023 and 2024. He’s currently at 238 and therefore 62 shy of the line, which he should be able to cross if he stays healthy the rest of the year. His other path to unlocking the player option is to finish in the top five in Cy Young voting. That option muddies any trade the Rangers might consider and he has limited trade protection on his deal as well.

Gray and Mahle each have one year left of their deals, making them at least somewhat plausible trade candidates, though moving them would hurt the club’s chances next year. With Scherzer, Heaney and Lorenzen slated for free agency after 2024, the Rangers might want to keep Gray and Mahle in the mix for 2025 alongside deGrom, Bradford, Dunning and maybe Eovaldi.

If the Rangers end up more firmly in the seller camp, they would have those aforementioned pitchers to market, as well as impending free agents David Robertson, José Leclerc, Kirby Yates, José Ureña, Travis Jankowski and Robbie Grossman. Based on Young’s comments, it sounds like it would take a rough performance in the coming weeks for them to sell, but those would be the options. Sherman also floats the possibility of Adolis García or Nathaniel Lowe being available, though each is arbitration controlled through 2026 and it doesn’t seem as though something that drastic is on the table, though it could always come about if some club comes in with an offer that can’t be refused.

Like many other clubs around the league, the Rangers are set for a pseudo postseason push in the weeks to come. With the buyer and seller paths both seemingly on the table, the Texas season will be on the line in the coming weeks, at least to an extent. As Young and his crew have to decide how hard to push in one direction or the other, the upcoming part of the schedule could perhaps define the team for the months that follow.