West Notes: Scherzer, Trout, Nola, Martinez
Rangers ace Max Scherzer exited his start against the Twins after six innings yesterday due to what he described to reporters (including Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today) as a “little forearm tightness” and wasn’t sure he’d be able to pitch the seventh. That being said, Scherzer downplayed the severity of the issue, suggesting that his priority is to ensure that the issue doesn’t “turn into a forearm strain or Tommy John.”
Even though Scherzer downplays the issue, it’s surely worrisome for Rangers fans that he’s facing any issue at all. The veteran right-hander has posted a phenomenal 2.21 ERA (198 ERA+) and 2.48 FIP in his first six starts with the club since being acquired from the Mets ahead of the trade deadline back in July. With Jacob deGrom out for the year and Nathan Eovaldi on the injured list already, Scherzer will be key for a Rangers club looking to stay in a three-way race for the AL West crown that they were dominating earlier in the season, to say nothing of his importance as a key cog in their projected postseason rotation alongside fellow deadline acquisition Jordan Montgomery. In the event Scherzer misses a start or two while erring on the side of caution regarding his forearm, Texas could turn to right-hander Owen White or lefties Cody Bradford and Martin Perez to fill in for the future Hall of Famer when his turn in the rotation next comes up on Wednesday.
More from MLB’s West divisions…
- Superstar Mike Trout spoke with reporters (including Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register) regarding the future of the Angels organization this afternoon. Anaheim, of course, waived a number of pending free agents including prized deadline addition Lucas Giolito earlier this week, effectively conceding the 2023 campaign in a failed bid to duck under the luxury tax threshold before the season ends. “There are going to be some conversations in the winter, for sure.” Trout said, “Just to see the direction of everything and what the plan is.” Trout refused to comment on the possibility of a trade when asked if he could imagine a scenario where he would ask to be moved, though with two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani likely departing for free agency this offseason and a protracted rebuild potentially on the horizon for the Angels, it would certainly be understandable if the 32-year-old Trout wished to continue his career elsewhere in hopes of reaching a World Series.
- Padres catcher Austin Nola has had a brutal year at the plate in 2023, slashing just .146/.260/.192 in 154 trips to the plate with San Diego. An explanation for those struggles has seemingly been uncovered, as Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune relays that Nola has been diagnosed with oculomotor dysfunction, an issue that impacts the brain’s ability to coordinate eye movement. Nola referenced Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo and his issues with post-concussion syndrome as a catalyst for his decision to discuss symptoms, which included fogginess and headaches, with the Padres. The Padres have been using a catching tandem of Gary Sanchez and Luis Campusano in recent weeks as Nola tried to work things out at the Triple-A level. Nola hopes to return to the field in the minors before the Triple-A season ends on September 24.
- Dodgers slugger J.D. Martinez is trending toward a return to the big league club next weekend, per the Orange County Register’s Bill Plunkett. Plunkett relays that Martinez will begin a brief rehab assignment at Triple-A later this week and in the meantime will take swings at Camelback Ranch in Arizona. Martinez, 35, has been on the injured list for the past two weeks due to groin tightness and was slashing .256/.309/.547 with 25 home runs and a 126 wRC+ in 390 trips to the plate before going on the shelf.
MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Trade Deadline Recap
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss the happenings of the recent trade deadline, including:
- The Mets decided to sell and sell big, maybe even for 2024 (1:15)
- The AL West turned into an arms race, with the Astros getting Justin Verlander and the Rangers getting Max Scherzer, among other deals (15:15)
- The Padres decided to go for it, holding onto Blake Snell and Josh Hader, as well as acquiring others (23:25)
- Cubs also decide to go for it, holding onto Cody Bellinger and Marcus Stroman, acquiring Jeimer Candelario (26:55)
- The Reds were surprisingly quiet (29:35)
- The Twins also sat on their hands (33:40)
Check out our past episodes!
- The Angels Are All In, Lucas Giolito and Picking a Lane – listen here
- All Eyes on the Angels, Cardinals Trade Options and Buyers or Sellers – listen here
- Top Deadline Trade Candidates, Ohtani Trade Potential and the Slipping Rays – listen here
Rangers Move Martín Pérez To Bullpen
The Rangers brought in some new additions to their rotation at the deadline, acquiring both Max Scherzer from the Mets and Jordan Montgomery from the Cardinals. One of them will replace Nathan Eovaldi, who recently landed on the injured list. Another opening will be created by veteran Martín Pérez getting bumped to the bullpen, reports Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News. “It doesn’t mean that’s where he’s going to stay,” manager Bruce Bochy said of the move for Pérez. “But for this time around, that’s the plan.”
Pérez, 32, has a long track of being a serviceable major league pitcher. By the end of the 2021 season, he had tossed 1102 2/3 innings, allowing 4.71 earned runs per nine innings. His 15.3% strikeout rate was well below average, but his 8.3% walk rate and 49.2% ground ball were both solid enough to allow him to be of use.
For 2022, he signed a one-year, $4MM deal with the Rangers and went on to have a career year. He made 32 starts and posted a 2.89 ERA over 196 1/3 innings, getting his strikeout rate up to a career high of 20.6% while still limiting walks and grounders. That earned him a well-deserved raise, as the Rangers issued him a $19.65MM qualifying offer, which he accepted.
Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to build off that late-career breakout. His strikeout bump has vanished, as his 14.4% rate this year is low even by his standards. The walk rate is still solid at 8.6% but he’s only getting grounders at a 41% clip, a huge drop from last year’s 51.4% rate. His ERA on the year is 4.98, with only five qualified pitchers worse than him in that department this year. It’s also been trending in a bad direction, as he had a 2.41 ERA at the end of April but a 6.15 mark since the start of May.
With those results, it’s not shocking that he’s been nudged out of the starting mix. This is a road he has travelled down before, as the Red Sox bumped him to the bullpen in 2021, though he was able to get back on track with the aforementioned breakout in 2022. Perhaps he will do so again at some point but the Texas rotation will now seem to consist of Scherzer, Montgomery, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning.
Dunning started the year in the bullpen but jumped into the rotation when Jacob deGrom landed on the injured list, later to require Tommy John surgery. In 16 starts since the start of May, Dunning has a 3.43 ERA. His 17.6% strikeout rate in that time isn’t especially impressive but he’s higher than Pérez in that department while also walking just 6.7% of hitters and keeping the ball on the ground at a 44.9% clip.
It seems those strong results will allow him to keep his starting gig, at least for the time being. As Bochy mentioned, the club could mix things up again in the months to come, though the group could get a bit more crowded. Bochy expects the club to have Eovaldi back after a minimum IL stint, per Kennedi Landry of MLB.com, which will make it harder both for Pérez to get back in the mix and for Dunning to keep his spot. Perhaps Eovaldi’s return would see Dunning hold his spot and Heaney get bumped to the bullpen since the latter has a lackluster 4.36 ERA on the season. But he has been trending better of late, with a 2.95 mark in his last four outings.
Of course, the final few months could also see some plot twists that change all of this, best laid plans and whatnot. The AL West is shaping up to be a fascinating race to watch in the final months, as the Rangers made their aforementioned rotation additions while the Astros got Justin Verlander and the Angels nabbed Lucas Giolito. The Rangers will undoubtedly be making whatever moves they feel give them the best shot at success in the weeks to come, with the large salary of Pérez not enough to keep him from the bullpen. He’ll return to the open market this winter while Dunning will qualify for arbitration for the first time.
Scherzer: Mets Planning 2024 As “A Kind Of Transitory Year” With Focus On 2025-26
The Mets had a Major League record payroll of close to $357MM on Opening Day, as they followed up their 101-win season in 2022 with an incredibly aggressive offseason. However, just as the Mets broke new ground in building their roster, they have also been as aggressive in pivoting in the wake of a very disappointing four months.
With just a 50-55 record entering today’s action, the Mets have been one of the trade deadline’s busiest teams, unloading both major and minor names, rental players and some players controlled beyond the 2023 season. The long list of players departing Queens in the last six weeks includes Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, David Robertson, Tommy Pham, Mark Canha, Dominic Leone, and Eduardo Escobar, as the Mets have pursued a strategy of absorbing most of the salaries of those departed players in order to obtain more young talent in return.
As Scherzer told The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the Mets’ plan apparently extends to rebuilding not for the 2024 season, but for future seasons. Scherzer had to waive his no-trade protection in order to be dealt to the Rangers, and before making his decision, the ace first spoke with GM Billy Eppler and the Amazins’ longer-term plans.
According to Scherzer, “I was like, ‘OK, are we reloading for 2024?’ [Eppler] goes, ‘No, we’re not. Basically our vision now is for 2025-2026, ’25 at the earliest, more like ’26. We’re going to be making trades around that.’ I was like, ‘So the team is not going to be pursuing free agents this offseason or assemble a team that can compete for a World Series next year?’ He said, ‘No, we’re not going to be signing the upper-echelon guys. We’re going to be on the smaller deals within free agency. ‘24 is now looking to be more of a kind of transitory year.’ ”
A follow-up chat between Scherzer and Mets owner Steve Cohen took the same tack, which inspired Scherzer to waive his no-trade clause and approve the deal to the Rangers. “That’s basically what Steve said: ‘I never thought in a million years we’d be in this situation, being at the deadline and we’re actually selling. But the math is the math. And the math says this organization needs to retool.’ That was Steve saying that. I said, ‘I get it. I’m not here to say you’re wrong.’ It is what it is. I understand from Steve’s perspective that’s the direction he wants to take the team based on where everyone is at within their contracts, arbitration, free agency. That was the new vision for the Mets.”
However, Scherzer also noted that “if they had said, ‘We’re going to hold on to all the ‘24 pieces,’ that would have been a different story.”
“But they were saying no, we’re going to be moving players that are under contract for 2024 before the deadline. We walked through some players I had in mind who would be that. It turned out it was much more extensive than that. The players we ended up talking about who are free agents after ‘24, they were more substantial names. Any player who was a free agent after 2024 at the right price could be moved right now at the deadline. That’s a completely different vision from what everybody had in the clubhouse. All the players had a vision of, we reload for 2024. That was no longer the case.”
Scherzer (who had an opt-out clause), Canha ($11.5MM club option for 2024), and Verlander were the only players controlled beyond 2023 who ended up being moved, as the likes of Jose Quintana and other club-option players like Brooks Raley, Omar Narvaez, and Adam Ottavino are all still with New York. Still, obviously moving two cornerstone aces like Scherzer and Verlander marked a severe change in direction for the Mets’ plans, as trading either pitcher in a deadline deal would’ve seem far-fetched given the hefty investment made in both future Hall-of-Famers over the last two winters. Verlander was signed to a two-year, $86.67MM with a conditional player option for 2025, while Scherzer came to Queens in the 2021-22 offseason on a three-year, $130MM pact.
In the wake of Scherzer’s trade, Eppler stated to reporters that “I do want to be clear that it’s not a rebuild. It’s not a fire sale. It’s not a liquidation. This is just a repurposing of Steve’s investment in the club, and kind of shifting that investment from the team into the organization.” Talking with media (including SNY’s John Flanigan) today, Eppler didn’t comment on Scherzer’s statements to Rosenthal, but expanded on his previous statement and reiterated that the Mets weren’t going to tank.
“One of the goals here is to expedite the longer-term goal. We’re trying to restock and reload the farm system,” Eppler said. “You have to go through a little pain to get where we want to go, but I feel like the organization is making strides towards a better future…..Going into 2024 we don’t see ourselves having the same odds that we did in 2022 and 2023, but we will field a competitive team.”
Cohen made similar remarks in a text to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, saying “We will be competitive in ’24 but I think 25-26 is when our young talent makes an impact. Lots of pitching in free agency in ’24. More payroll flexibility in ’25. Got a lot of dead money in ’24.”
Since buying the Mets in November 2020, Cohen has been quite open about his bigger-picture dream for the club — citing the Dodgers as the model, Cohen wanted to field a consistent contender with the resources to acquire premium free agents or trade targets, but largely fueled by star talent developed by the Mets’ own farm system. Cohen didn’t want to wait for that prospect base to be fully built before the Mets started winning, however, and said that he would spend heavily to make the team a contender in the interim.
As it has turned out, this initial plan might just result in one winning season in Cohen’s first three years running the club. The Mets were 77-85 in 2021, are on pace for a losing record this year, and even the 101-win performance last year was muted when the Padres ousted them in the wild card series. Rather than splurge again to restock a flawed roster for 2024, it makes sense that Cohen and Eppler might view taking a step back in order to hopefully two steps forward in 2025 or 2026, rather than continue to tread water in a competitive NL East. The Braves look like surefire contenders for years to come, the Phillies won the NL pennant last year, and the Marlins have also gotten themselves back into the playoff race.
The new direction opens a wealth of new possibilities for the Mets this coming offseason. It can be assumed that highly-touted youngsters Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty aren’t going anywhere, if New York wants to expand its young core. Players recently signed to longer-term contracts or extensions (i.e. Francisco Lindor, Kodai Senga, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, Edwin Diaz) aren’t likely to be moved either, since this group will all still be around during the Mets’ new timeline for contention.
Beyond that core, it’s fair to wonder if any other Mets player might be on the trade market this winter. That includes Jose Quintana (signed through 2024) and Starling Marte (signed through 2025), as while neither has amassed much of a track record in 2023, the Mets have shown that they’re more than willing to eat money to accommodate trades. The biggest question mark might hang over Pete Alonso, as the slugger has one final arbitration-eligible year remaining before he enters free agency following the 2024 campaign.
Roster Resource projects that New York has roughly $204.2MM on the books for 2024 already, but a step back from contention might also logically mean a desire for the team to reset its luxury tax status. The Mets obviously blew past the highest tax levels in both 2022 and 2023, but getting out of tax territory entirely ($237MM is the lowest threshold level in 2024) would both reduce the team’s financial penalty, and more importantly the asset-related penalties attached with tax overages. For instance, the Mets would be able to sign qualifying-offer free agents for a lesser cost of draft picks, while also netting a higher draft return for any of their own free agents who reject a QO and sign elsewhere. In other punishment for incurring such a high tax bill in 2022, the Mets also had their first pick in the 2023 draft pushed back by ten slots, and their international signing pool was reduced.
If the Amazins aren’t planning to be big spenders this winter, that naturally has a big impact on this offseason’s free agent class, given how Cohen’s largesse has driven the market over the last two years. Given the relatively thin nature of the 2023-24 class, the Mets front office might be planning to capitalize by using some of their roster as trade chips, as rival clubs might not find what they’re looking for in free agency. As Cohen noted, there are plenty of interesting pitchers available following the 2024 season if the Mets do intend only a one-year step back, such as Scherzer again, Max Fried, Zack Wheeler, Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and many others.
Speaking Burnes and Woodruff, it would remiss if we didn’t mention the persistent rumors that the Mets will pursue David Stearns as the next president of baseball operations, as Cohen said last month that he is still looking to install a new executive above Eppler on the decision-making pyramid. Stearns’ contract with the Brewers is up after the season, and if the speculation is true and he does head to New York for his next job, it might make sense if Stearns eventually pursues some of his old Milwaukee players. That said, whether Stearns or someone else is the new president, it would make sense that the Mets gives the new hire at least a year to fully assess the organization, before turning back towards contending in 2025 or 2026.
Rangers Acquire Max Scherzer From Mets
The Rangers and Mets have agreed to a trade that will see the star right-hander Max Scherzer head to Texas, with prospect Luisangel Acuña heading the other way. The Mets are paying down all but $22.5MM of the remaining money owed to Scherzer, who will waive his no-trade clause. He will also trigger his player option for 2024, forgoing his opt-out opportunity.
The Mets signed Scherzer to a three-year, $130MM deal going into the 2022 season, as part of a high-spending strategy aimed at contention. The first year generally went well, as the Mets won 101 games with Scherzer contributing 23 starts of 2.29 ERA ball. This year hasn’t been nearly as successful, however, as the Mets have slumped to 49-54 and 6.5 games out of a playoff spot. It seems they have accepted the fact that they have to do some selling, having already flipped David Robertson to the Marlins.
That’s also come with diminished results from Scherzer, who has posted an ERA of 4.01 this year, working around a 10-game sticky stuff suspension earlier in the season. His strikeouts have dipped this season, with his 27.3% rate representing his lowest since 2011.
With the Mets struggling, it’s led to speculation about how they would react. Impending free agents like Robertson, Tommy Pham and others seemed like natural trade candidates, but Scherzer’s situation was more complicated. As mentioned, he had a full no-trade clause and would need to agree to any deal. It was reported in June that he was willing to waive that clause under certain circumstances, though without concrete information about what it would take for him to do so.
Further complicating matters was Scherzer’s ability to opt out of the final year of his deal, leaving $43.33MM on the table. Some sources describe this as a player option, though the situation is the same either way, with Scherzer getting to decide whether to become a free agent or not. He spoke about his situation earlier this week, saying that he’s “not going to be a free agent” and “can see a path to contend next year” with the Mets. Though he also said he would speak with the front office about the club’s direction.
He’s still owed just under $15MM for the remainder of this season, on top of the $43.33MM for next year, a total just north of $58MM. Whatever return the Rangers were willing to send to the Mets might have taken a different shape if they were to view Scherzer as a rental or a pickup for a year and a half with a massive salary. They reportedly wanted Scherzer to lock in that 2024 season, which he has now apparently done.
Since the Mets are paying down all but $22.5MM, that means they’re eating more than $35MM in this deal. The Mets have shown a tendency to eat money in trades in order to maximize returns, such as sending Eduardo Escobar to the Angels and James McCann to the Orioles, and have done so here.
The Rangers have been clearly looking for starting pitching recently, having been connected to Lance Lynn, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Verlander and Scherzer. They have had a couple of rotation setbacks this year, most notably the loss of Jacob deGrom. He was signed to a five-year, $185MM guarantee in the offseason but required Tommy John surgery in June, putting him out for the remainder of this year and some of 2024 as well. They also lost Jake Odorizzi to a season-ending shoulder surgery.
The club has operated for most of the season with a rotation of Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Martín Pérez and Andrew Heaney, with Dane Dunning stepping in for deGrom. The results from that group have been varied, with Eovaldi’s 2.69 ERA the lowest and Pérez the highest at 4.91. Dunning is at 3.28 but with a 15.5% strikeout rate that’s well below league average. Since his .269 batting average on balls in play and 77.5% strand rate are on the lucky side, his 4.26 FIP and 4.88 SIERA suggest he’s skirted around some runs. He’s the only member of the rotation with options and could perhaps wind up in the minors as depth, though he’s also worked out of the bullpen before. Additionally, Eovaldi is dealing with some elbow soreness, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. He’s not going on the IL yet but his scheduled start is being pushed back. Although Scherzer’s not having his best season, he would still be an upgrade for that group. By sticking around for 2024, he will also help them cover for Pérez becoming a free agent, with deGrom potentially returning later in the year.
The Rangers are currently 60-44 and hold a two-game lead over the Astros in the American League West, with the third-place Angels aggressively pursuing upgrades as well. The Rangers haven’t made the postseason since 2016, which was also the last time they finished above .500. They’ve shown a willingness to be very aggressive in recent years as they look to get out of that spiral, giving out huge deals to players like Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, as well as the aforementioned starting pitchers. They’ve already bolstered their bullpen by acquiring Aroldis Chapman and now have made a massive move for their rotation.
It was reported this week that the club would be open to surpassing the $233MM base threshold of the luxury tax for Verlander, though it remains to be seen if they will do the same for Scherzer. Roster Resource currently lists their CBT figure at $224MM, or $9MM below the line. Assuming the $22.5MM they are paying Scherzer is evenly distributed between now and the end of next year, they’ll be adding just under $6MM to that. That will leave them shy of the line for now but further moves could tip the scales.
In order to obtain Scherzer’s services, the club has parted with Acuña. The 21-year-old shortstop is the younger brother of Atlanta’s superstar outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Signed out of Venezuela in 2018, he has climbed through the minor league ranks to reach Double-A. In 84 games at that level this year, he’s hitting .315/.377/.453 for a wRC+ of 121 while stealing 42 bases. Baseball America currently lists him at the #87 prospect in the league while FanGraphs has him at #56. BA suspects he’ll have to move to second base eventually but that he could be a solid regular there.
As for the Mets, this could perhaps give some hint as to how far they are willing to go in trading from this year’s roster in order to acquire help for future seasons. They’ve already traded Robertson and could shop other impending free agents like Pham and Carlos Carrasco. Mark Canha and Brooks Raley could also make sense, though they are pure rentals since the club has options for 2024. Omar Narváez and Adam Ottavino have player options for 2024. José Quintana‘s contract runs through 2024 and he has received some trade interest.
The bigger fish, though, is Verlander. He just signed a two-year deal in the offseason that pays him $43.33MM per year, matching Scherzer’s salary, with a conditional $35MM option for 2025 as well. Like Scherzer, he also has a full no-trade clause and said just a few days ago that the club hadn’t yet approached him about waiving it. But it was later reported that the club would only approach the players about their clauses after finding workable trade packages, which seems to have been the case in this Scherzer deal.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Michael Schwab of Juice Box Journal first reported that the Rangers had a deal in place for Scherzer, contingent on him waiving his no-trade clause. Andy Martino of Steve Gelbs of SNY relayed that Scherzer would waive his clause, but that the financial components of the deal weren’t complete. Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported on Acuña’s inclusion in the deal, as well as the fact that the Rangers wanted him to forego his opt-out at season’s end and that the deal was done. Martino relayed the financials while Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that Scherzer will trigger in his 2024 option, with Heyman adding that he’ll receive some additional amenities for doing so.
Latest On Justin Verlander
Few potential trade candidates are as notable as Justin Verlander. There are myriad complications that could stand in the way of a deal, but there’s been speculation over the past couple days about the chance of Verlander being on the move.
Mark Feinsand of MLB.com suggested Thursday night there was some industry sentiment the Mets would look to move him. Feinsand listed the Astros and Rangers as potential fits. Will Sammon and Tim Britton of the Athletic also indicated that the two Texas-based franchises had expressed some interest, writing that the Mets at least appear willing to genuinely consider offers on Verlander and Max Scherzer.
Still, it remains to be seen how aggressively other teams would pursue either player. Sammon and Britton characterize Texas’ interest in Verlander mostly as due diligence as they evaluate all their rotation possibilities. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News wrote yesterday that Texas would be open to surpassing the competitive balance tax threshold in a Verlander trade. However, he similarly indicated the Rangers are checking in on virtually every pitcher on the market, with nothing to suggest Verlander talks have gotten particularly advanced. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that Texas has also inquired on reliever Brooks Raley and corner outfielder Tommy Pham.
Texas has a luxury tax number around $224MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. They’re $9MM shy of the $233MM base threshold. Verlander is due around $15.4MM through season’s end, so an acquisition would push Texas past that marker unless the Mets paid down a significant chunk of the salary.
New York might be willing to do so. They paid down all of Eduardo Escobar’s deal and are reportedly willing to send cash in other trades, although they didn’t include any money in the David Robertson swap with Miami. There’s a ways to go to get to that point, though. New York would have to weigh the possible return against subtracting a key player who’s under contract for 2024, when the Mets surely envision a return to competitiveness.
That’s even before considering the players’ ability to block any deal. Both Verlander and Scherzer have complete no-trade rights. Understandably, neither has gone on record about whether they’d waive that provision. Verlander said a few days ago the Mets had not approached him about that possibility. Scherzer told the New York beat last night that he’d likely speak with the front office about the franchise’s direction over the next few days. Sherman indicates the Mets would only gauge the pitchers’ willingness to waive the no-trade clauses if they first find a potentially workable trade package.
Texas pursued Verlander as a free agent last winter. He reportedly wasn’t keen on joining the Rangers at the time, although that’s seemingly because he questioned how quickly they’d be competitive. That’s no longer in doubt with the Rangers topping the AL West by two games and motivated deadline buyers.
There’s plenty of familiarity between Verlander and the Astros, of course. Houston has been on the hunt for a starting pitcher for a few weeks. General manager Dana Brown downplayed the rotation need a bit after acquiring reliever Kendall Graveman yesterday, however. Brown indicated that while Houston was still open to adding a starter, the rotation is “not as high a priority as the bullpen was,” in part because of the loftier asking price teams are demanding to relinquish starting pitching (link via Chandler Rome of the Athletic).
Dodgers Rumors: Verlander, E-Rod, Singer, Keller, Cardinals, Scherzer, Canha, Pham
The Dodgers have already both added and subtracted from their pitching mix prior to the deadline, acquiring Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly from the White Sox while also shipping out Noah Syndergaard to the Guardians in exchange for Amed Rosario. Between these moves and the re-acqusition of old friend Enrique Hernandez from the Red Sox, Los Angeles has already checked several boxes on their wishlist with over three days to go until the trade deadline, but more transactions seem likely given the Dodgers’ aggression.
Pitching remains the focus, as while Lynn will theoretically fill one hole, Lynn’s inconsistency and the Dodgers’ relative lack of rotation has put a lot of other hurlers on the team’s radar. According to Jack Harris and Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times, the Dodgers’ list of targets include Justin Verlander, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brady Singer, Mitch Keller, Jack Flaherty, and Jordan Montgomery. Beyond Verlander, the Dodgers are also looking at a couple of other Mets players to address their outfield needs, as The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reports that Tommy Pham and Mark Canha are of interest.
One Met who apparently isn’t under heavy consideration is Max Scherzer, as Harris/Castillo write that “the likelihood…isn’t as strong” of Scherzer heading to Chavez Ravine at another trade deadline. L.A. memorably landed Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals two years ago, but Scherzer was a rental at the time, just two-plus months away from free agency. Scherzer implied yesterday that he would be exercising his $43.333MM player option for 2024, and with the Mets likely to ask for a strong trade return, the uncertainty over that player option makes Scherzer a pricey add both financially (he is also still owed $16MM for the rest of 2023) and from a prospect cost.
Given how aggressive the Dodgers have been, a Scherzer reunion might not be entirely ruled out until either the team makes another pitching move, or until Scherzer is potentially shipped elsewhere. With Verlander, Pham and Canha also apparently under discussion, the Dodgers’ talks with the Mets could go in several directions between now and Tuesday’s 5pm CT deadline.
Similarly, there are plenty of layers to the negotiations between the Dodgers and Cardinals, as Nolan Arenado is yet another star name Los Angeles has explored. In a move akin to that Scherzer/Turner blockbuster of 2021, the Dodgers could aim to land both a major position player and a rental pitcher (either Montgomery or Flaherty) in the same deal. Harris/Castillo note that L.A. might also pursue either Montgomery or Flaherty on their own, should the more complicated machinations of an Arenado deal fall through.
Rodriguez has drawn attention from several other teams as the deadline approaches, and the Tigers left-hander’s status is also impacted by a contractual option. Rodriguez has the ability to opt out of his contract after the season, leaving three years and $49MM on the table in search of a richer and longer-term deal. An opt-out seems like a distinct possibility the way E-Rod has been pitching, yet an injury or a drop in form (with the Tigers or a new team) could certainly still occur post-deadline, leading to a change in his thinking. If this did happen after a trade, a new club could find itself on the books for $49MM of a suddenly distressed asset, which surely factors into the thinking of the Dodgers and any other team considering the southpaw.
Beyond these veteran rental players, the Dodgers are also slightly expanding their perimeters to look at more controllable pitchers. The Pirates have arbitration control on Keller through the 2025 season, while the Royals have Singer arb-controlled through 2026. Keller seems like the longer shot, as Pittsburgh is perhaps only listening to trade offers out of due diligence, and would command a huge prospect return in any deal. While Los Angeles is one of the teams with the prospect depth to perhaps get the Pirates’ attention, it doesn’t seem likely that the Bucs will move Keller anywhere at the deadline or even in the near future, as Pittsburgh may have an eye on fully turning the corner back into contending in 2024.
“No traction toward a deal has materialized” between the Dodgers and Royals, so Singer is probably also not on the move. The former first-rounder has a breakout season in 2022 but has struggled to a 5.46 ERA over 113 2/3 innings this year, albeit with a somewhat more favorable 4.41 SIERA. It is possible that L.A. was looking to buy low on the righty (who turns 27 next week), just in case Kansas City was considering a wider-range rebuild in the wake of its disastrous 2023 season. The Royals are in a tough spot given the lack of production from almost all of their projected cornerstone young players, yet while it isn’t clear what the next step will be for the franchise, it does seem too soon for K.C. to give up on Singer, one of the few members of that group who has had some level of success in the majors.
Returning to Verlander, he would also bring a bit more control than a rental player, as he owed $43.333MM in 2024 and he can earn a $35MM player option for 2025 if he pitches at least 140 innings in 2024. It’s a steep price tag for a pitcher who turns 41 in February, as even though Verlander has pitched closer to his vintage form in the last few weeks, he missed time earlier this year due to a teres major strain and was then shaky in his first few starts of 2023.
Perhaps more relevant to August 1, Verlander has a full no-trade clause in his contract, and said earlier this week that “I’m focused on being a Met. I want to win here…Obviously it hasn’t gone according to plan just yet, but I didn’t sign a one-year deal.” Since the Mets have already started to trade veterans and look ahead to 2024, it is possible Verlander might change his mind should a contender make an offer, and there has been a connection between Verlander and Los Angeles in the past. The Dodgers pushed to sign Verlander in free agency last winter, with Harris/Castillo writing that L.A. offered the future Hall-of-Famer two years and $80MM.
Max Scherzer Discusses Future With Mets
The Mets kicked off what’s likely to be a deadline sell-off last night, sending David Robertson to Miami. It’d seemed a long time in the making with New York unable to get above .500 but still marked a symbolic blow for a team that entered the year with championship aspirations.
How aggressively New York will retool the roster remains to be seen. Short-term veterans like Tommy Pham, Brooks Raley and Mark Canha seem likely to move within the next few days. There’s been increasing chatter about a pair of much bigger names: Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.
After his start tonight, Scherzer spoke with the New York beat about his future (relayed by Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). While he conceded the roster “put (itself) in this position” by not playing up to expectations, he noted his disappointment with the club’s situation. Regarding both whether he still had confidence in the team to compete in 2023 and his longer-term future with the organization, Scherzer said he was likely to speak with the front office about the club’s direction.
Scherzer declined to say whether he’d be willing to waive his no-trade rights. However, he seemed to tip his hand regarding the $43.333MM player option in his contract for next season. The three-time Cy Young winner said he’s “not going to be a free agent,” distinguishing this from the 2021 deadline when Scherzer waived his no-trade clause to go from the Nationals to the Dodgers three months before free agency.
The star hurler didn’t directly say he was a lock to opt in to next season. His contract with Washington didn’t have any option years, so there was no question he was headed to free agency that winter. Between his no-trade rights and player options, Scherzer has the ability to ensure he’s a Met in 2024. He added he “can see a path to contend next year” with New York but noted that’s pending a conversation with team brass.
Scherzer’s comments surely won’t quiet speculation about the chances of another deadline blockbuster. Yet they’re far from ensuring a move will happen. Even if Scherzer were willing to waive his no-trade rights, the Mets would need to find a deal they consider tenable. Andy Martino of SNY wrote this afternoon the Mets were finding more interest in Verlander of the two pitchers.
Both are making a record annual salary north of $43MM. Verlander is under guaranteed contract next season and has a vesting player option for 2025. Scherzer owns a 4.01 ERA through 107 2/3 innings. He’s striking hitters out at a quality 27.3% clip and limiting walks but has struggled with home runs.
Latest On Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer
The Mets’ sell-off began in earnest last night when they traded David Robertson to the division-rival Marlins, and further deals are widely expected to come together in the days leading up to Tuesday’s trade deadline. Veteran outfielders Mark Canha and Tommy Pham can be free agents at season’s end — Canha has a 2024 club option — and figure to hold interest to contenders seeking right-handed bats and/or general outfield help. But perhaps no two players will be of as much interest to fans in the next few days as future Hall of Famers Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.
Andy Martino of SNY reports that the Mets have thus far received “moderate” interest in Verlander but have not had meaningful enough talks to even approach the three-time Cy Young winner about waiving his no-trade clause. Scherzer has drawn less interest, per Martino.
Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported late last night that a pair of executives with other clubs believe there’s a real chance the Mets will ultimately trade Verlander. He listed the Rangers and Astros as potential fits, and Martino adds (without directly tying them to Verlander) that the Angels and Reds have been scouting the Mets of late. Feinsand adds that the Rangers were in on Verlander in the offseason, but the 40-year-old righty was more keen on signing with what he viewed as a contending club in Queens. It’s only reasonable to think he’d view the Rangers more favorably now; Texas is leading the AL West and owns the third-best winning percentage and top run differential in the American League. He’s certainly no stranger to pitching in Texas either, having spent several years with the Astros.
Obviously, there would be plenty of obstacles to any trade actually coming together. First and foremost, both Verlander and Scherzer have full no-trade clauses in their contracts. They’d have to approve any deal, although one can imagine that the opportunity to go from a struggling Mets team into the type of playoff chase both envisioned when signing in New York would be quite enticing. Both players are also earning a record $43.333MM annual salary on the contracts they signed in free agency — a massive number which would rule some contending clubs out entirely. Owner Steve Cohen could of course pay down some of that salary in order to facilitate a trade, but the specifics of how much cash to include and what caliber of prospects to send back for either multi-time Cy Young winner would be difficult to broker.
Beyond the contractual hurdles, the simple fact is that neither Verlander nor Scherzer has pitched as well in 2023 as in recent seasons. Verlander’s 3.24 ERA is a perfect match for his career mark, but this year’s 20.9% strikeout rate 8.2% walk rate are nowhere close to last year’s respective rates of 27.8% and 4.4%. Verlander’s 94.6 mph average fastball, 10% swinging-strike rate and 34.9% opponents’ chase rate are all down slightly from last year’s levels of 95.1 mph, 11.6% and 36.9%, as well.
Verlander, who missed the first five weeks of the season due to a strained teres major, is guaranteed $43.333MM this year and next. His contract contains a conditional $35MM player option for the 2025 season that would vest if he pitches 140 innings next year.
As for Scherzer, he’s sporting a 4.20 ERA that would be the second-highest mark of his career — his worst since a 4.43 showing way back in 2011. His 27.4% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate are down from his 2022 levels (30.6% and 4.2%) but still remain considerably better than the league average. However, he’s also giving up home runs at the highest rate of his career. Scherzer has yielded an average of 1.97 round-trippers per nine innings pitched and seen a whopping 16.8% of his fly-balls leave the yard. The latter of those two numbers seems bound for some regression, but Scherzer is giving up hard contact at his highest levels since Statcast began tracking batted-ball data (89.1 mph average exit velocity, 10.3% barrel rate, 38.7% hard-hit rate).
Scherzer is in the second season of a three-year, $130MM contract pays him $43.333MM annually, but he has the right to opt out of the final year of that deal this winter. Barring a return to vintage form over the final couple months, he’s unlikely to match that type of payday on the open market. However, Scherzer suggested prior to the season that the opt-out was negotiated into his contract in large part to see where the organization stood at that point. He knew his now-former teammate Jacob deGrom had a looming opt-out in his deal and wanted to ensure that the Mets would remain committed to fielding a winning club in the event deGrom departed. The Mets certainly strived to do so in 2023, but things haven’t worked out.
Reports have since suggested that Scherzer is willing to waive his no-trade clause, which is only sensible if winning is his his top priority. His willingness to do so hardly guarantees that a deal will come to fruition, but with the Mets beginning to trade short-term veterans, both Scherzer and Verlander figure to be oft-discussed names over the next four days.
Max Scherzer Reportedly Open To Waiving No-Trade Clause
The Mets have dropped seven of their last ten, leaving them at 35-43 heading into Tuesday’s game against Milwaukee. Coming off a 101-win season and boasting the highest player payroll in MLB history, they’re on the shortlist of the most disappointing teams in the league.
A little more than a month from the trade deadline, New York could wind up being one of the more fascinating clubs to follow. Ownership and the front office would surely prefer the club plays its way back into contention and puts them in position to add this summer, though that’s no small feat. Hopes of winning the NL East are gone, and the team sits 8 1/2 games out of the last Wild Card spot with six teams to surpass.
If the Mets pivot to selling off veteran pieces, opposing teams could at least ponder a run at Max Scherzer. The three-time Cy Young award winner is in the second season of a three-year, $130MM free agent deal. He’s making an MLB-record $43.333MM annually and can opt out and retest free agency at season’s end.
Scherzer’s deal contains a full no-trade clause, so the Mets couldn’t move him without his consent. Industry sources suggest to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com that Scherzer would be amenable to waiving the provision in the right circumstances — presumably one that’d see him shipped to a team with legitimate 2023 championship aspirations. Scherzer famously waived a no-trade clause in his deal with the Nationals at the 2021 deadline, enabling the stunner that landed him and Trea Turner in Dodger blue.
That’s not to say a trade is likely this time around. The no-trade clause is one of myriad roadblocks. The Mets aren’t going to pull the plug on the ’23 season until absolutely necessary; the roster still has a few weeks to take itself off the bubble. Even if the Mets were to consider moving veteran players, parting with Scherzer would represent a much bigger decision than relinquishing pure rentals like David Robertson and Tommy Pham.
While Scherzer could join Robertson and Pham on the open market, he’s by no means a lock to do so. He’d have to forfeit the largest single-year salary in MLB history. Scherzer isn’t performing at vintage level and will turn 39 next month, so there’s no assurance he’d do much better than $43.333MM on the open market. The eight-time All-Star might be able to top that guarantee but would probably have to spread it over a two-year deal with lesser yearly salaries.
Over 13 starts and 70 2/3 innings, he’s carrying a 3.95 ERA. His 26.2% strikeout rate is still quite good but a few points below typical levels. His velocity and swinging strike numbers aren’t far off his customary marks, though he’s allowing home runs at a career-high clip.
If the Mets feel Scherzer is unlikely to opt out, they could view dealing him this summer as too much of a blow to their 2024 chances even if they’re definitively out of this year’s mix. The record salaries, meanwhile, could be a problem for teams considering a run at him. It’s unlikely another franchise would absorb the approximate $14.2MM Scherzer will collect between August 1 and season’s end, to say nothing of the ’24 commitment they could assume if he doesn’t test free agency.
Of course, the Mets could shoulder much of Scherzer’s deal to facilitate a trade if they wanted to restock the farm system. Andy Martino of SNY reported last week that owner Steve Cohen was willing to leverage his spending capacity to bolster the prospect pipeline — either by taking on another team’s undesirable deal or covering contracts of players shipped out of Queens. New York put that into action by paying down Eduardo Escobar’s $9.5MM salary to the league minimum to facilitate his trade to the Angels.
Doing the same with Scherzer would be in a completely different stratosphere — both in terms of the money New York is retaining and the hit they’d deal to the MLB roster. There’s no indication it’s a consideration right now. That Scherzer may not be categorically opposed to changing uniforms at least leaves open the possibility of a second blockbuster in three years, but the no-trade clause is far from the only impediment.