Max Scherzer Continues Working Toward A Return
The Rangers have been without Max Scherzer since mid-September, but the three-time Cy Young winner hasn’t given up hope of pitching in the postseason. Indeed, he seems to be progressing well toward that goal.
His teammates did their part on Wednesday afternoon, beating the Rays to win the AL Wild Card Series and advance to the ALDS. Scherzer, meanwhile, pitched another bullpen session (according to Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News), ramping up the intensity with which he threw. The veteran described the session as “pain-free” and seemed excited about his progress, calling out in triumph as he made his way back to the clubhouse. While he’ll have to wait to see how his body reacts in the coming days, that sounds like promising news.
As the Rangers celebrated their first postseason series victory in over a decade, Scherzer had his trademarked look of determination in his eyes (per Tyler Kepner of The Athletic). “Based on today, I’m turning a corner, I see a path,” the future Hall of Famer said. “You never know.” Based on those comments, it doesn’t sound like his return is fast approaching – he remains doubtful for the ALDS – but the deeper the Rangers play into October, the more likely it is that Scherzer can get back on the mound.
Thanks to a couple of off days in the ALDS schedule, the Rangers could get through the second round of the playoffs with just three starting pitchers. After that, however, they will almost certainly require a fourth starter – if they advance to the ALCS. Andrew Heaney could fill that need, as could Jon Gray if his health allows. Still, Texas would surely rather have Scherzer in that role. In eight starts with the Rangers this season, he pitched to a 3.20 ERA, striking out nearly 30% of the batters he faced. Not to mention, the 2019 World Series champion has a lengthy postseason resume, including a 3.47 ERA in 22 playoff starts. He has also made five relief appearances, racking up ten strikeouts in 6 1/3 innings out of the ‘pen. If Scherzer isn’t stretched out to start by the ALCS, he could serve a valuable role as a not-so-secret weapon in the later innings.
AL West Notes: Scherzer, Rangers, A’s, Schanuel
Rangers right-hander Max Scherzer hasn’t been ruled out for contributing to the Rangers’ postseason push this year despite having suffered a teres major strain earlier this month. Just two weeks after being placed on the IL with the issue, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News noted that Scherzer had worked his way up to throwing a “light” bullpen today. Scherzer wouldn’t put a timeline on his potential return, telling reporters (including Grant) that “If you target dates, you get emotional & then you compete with the injury.”
Scherzer managing to return to the Rangers this postseason would provide a massive boost to the club’s pitching staff, which offers little certainty beyond lefty Jordan Montgomery and veteran righty Nathan Eovaldi without its future Hall of Fame ace fronting the rotation. It’s been an up-and-down year for Scherzer, who’s posted a 3.77 ERA and 4.33 FIP in 152 2/3 innings of work this year. While those numbers are uncharacteristically close to average for the veteran ace, he seemingly flipped a switch upon being traded to Texas. The righty posted a 2.21 ERA and 2.47 FIP in his first six starts with the club with a 33.6% strikeout rate, looking like vintage Scherzer before a pair of injury-shortened starts that preceded his trip to the injured list.
More from around the AL West…
- Sticking with the Rangers, the club activated left-hander Josh Sborz from the 15-day IL today and optioned lefty Jake Latz to Triple-A in a corresponding move. While Sborz sports a well below average 5.80 ERA in 49 2/3 innings of work this year, his peripheral stats indicate a much stronger performance as indicated by his 3.90 FIP, 3.41 xERA, 3.24 xFIP, and 3.11 SIERA. Much of this discrepancy comes from an extremely low 55.3% strand rate combined with an excellent strikeout rate (30.6%), solid walk rate (8.3%), and strong groundball rate (46.8%). If Sborz’s results can improve, he could be a valuable left-handed option out of the club’s bullpen headed into the postseason.
- MLB commissioner Rob Manfred confirmed in an interview with the Associated Press today an earlier report by Mick Akers of the Las Vegas Review-Journal that MLB owners will vote on the Athletics‘ relocation bid during the owners’ meetings, which are scheduled for November 14-16. Akers also notes that the club is expected to announce the architect for the impending stadium prior to that announcement, with that decision expected to come as soon as next month. At least 75% of owners will need to approve the relocation proposal, though that is widely expected to be all but guaranteed.
- Angels first baseman Nolan Schanuel has been out of action since fouling a pitch off his knee on Monday, which prompted him to exit the game in the seventh inning. While he’s missed the past two games nursing the injury, manager Phil Nevin indicated to reporters (including MLB.com) that the club was hopeful Schanuel would be able to return to the starting lineup as soon as Friday, following the club’s day off tomorrow. The Angels’ first-round pick in this year’s draft, Schanuel was called up to the big league club just one month after being drafted and has performed admirably in his first taste of both major league and professional pitching this summer, with a .284/.407/.343 slash line that clocks in at 16% better than league average by measure of wRC+. The club has relied on Brandon Drury at first base in Schanuel’s absence.
Rangers Aren’t Ruling Out Max Scherzer For The Playoffs
When Max Scherzer landed on the injured list with a teres major strain, it seemed like his year was done. He was finished for the regular season, and his chances of pitching in the playoffs were slim. Yet now, Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News reports that the 39-year-old is increasing his throwing program in an effort to strengthen his arm and get back on a mound. That doesn’t sound like a pitcher planning to take all offseason to get back in game shape.
Indeed, manager Bruce Bochy says he wouldn’t rule out Scherzer for the postseason. In an appearance on the K&C Masterpiece show, the veteran skipper said his ace seems “optimistic” and that the team has gotten good reports on his health. That’s far from a guarantee that Texas will have the three-time Cy Young winner back in time for the playoffs, but it’s undoubtedly a positive development. The Rangers will still need to prepare for the worst, but at least they can hope for the best.
There’s no denying this team could use Scherzer back in the rotation as soon as possible. Nathan Eovaldi has struggled in five starts since his return from the injured list, and now Jon Gray is dealing with tightness in his wrist. Dane Dunning has remained healthy this season, but he has slowed way down after a hot start. That leaves trade deadline acquisition Jordan Montgomery as the only reliable arm on the starting staff with October right around the corner.
While Scherzer hasn’t been his typical ace-like self this season, he remains a durable and capable starting pitcher. In 27 starts this year, he is averaging 5 2/3 innings per game with a 3.77 ERA. He also has a great deal of playoff experience, having made 27 appearances across nine separate postseasons. He was especially dominant during the Nationals’ 2019 World Series run, posting a 2.40 ERA in 30 innings of work.
The Rangers are counting on Scherzer to play a key role in their 2024 rotation, so they certainly wouldn’t want to risk his health by rushing him back before he’s ready. However, if he can safely return to the mound, the future Hall of Famer would make a huge difference in the playoffs. It still seems like a scant possibility, but the deeper Texas plays into October, the more likely the possibility becomes.
Max Scherzer Unlikely To Return This Year Due To Teres Major Strain
Rangers general manager Chris Young informed reporters, including Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, that right-hander Max Scherzer has a teres major strain. Surgery is not needed but he is out of the rest of the regular season and “unlikely” to pitch in the playoffs either. The Rangers officially placed Scherzer on the 15-day injured list shortly after the news was announced, with righty Jonathan Hernandez recalled in a corresponding move.
It is obviously a terrible development for the Rangers, who are in the midst of a tight playoff race with just over two weeks to go. The Rangers are a game back of the Astros in the West division and are currently clinging to the second Wild Card spot, but with both the Blue Jays and Mariners just half a game back. Scherzer left his start against the Jays last night and was slated for an MRI today, which apparently revealed the strain.
This is the latest setback in the club’s attempts to improve its starting rotation, which was a significant weak point last year. In the offseason, the club re-signed Martín Pérez, traded for Jake Odorizzi and signed free agents Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney, with that group joining incumbents Jon Gray and Dane Dunning. But Odorizzi never pitched for the club, requiring a shoulder procedure that wiped out his whole season. deGrom made six starts before landing on the injured list and ultimately requiring Tommy John surgery. Both Heaney and Pérez struggled earlier in the year and have been pitching out of the bullpen of late.
Despite those rotation challenges, the club has spent much of this season in first place in their division and went into the deadline as buyers, with the rotation an obvious area to address. They acquired Jordan Montgomery from the Cardinals and Scherzer from the Mets.
Scherzer wasn’t quite having as dominant a season as in the past, posting a 4.01 ERA with the Mets prior to the trade, but the Rangers were still naturally intrigued by his incredible track record that goes all the way back to 2008. They sent prospect Luisangel Acuña to the Mets in order to bring Scherzer aboard, though the latter club also sent $35MM to Texas in order to cover part of Scherzer’s salary for the rest of this year and next year as well.
The veteran had better results after the deal, with a 3.20 ERA over his eight starts since coming to the Rangers. Unfortunately, the club will now have to proceed through what’s left of the regular season without him. Even if they manage to hang on and get into the postseason, they will have to cobble a playoff rotation together while potential playoff starters like Scherzer and deGrom sit on the injured list. It seems the door is still slightly open for a return from Scherzer, though that would likely be contingent on the club making a late postseason run.
Subtracting Scherzer from the rotation leaves the Rangers with Montgomery, Eovaldi, Gray and Dunning. They will need a fifth starter as soon as this weekend, which could perhaps result in either Heaney or Pérez returning to the rotation. Heaney has an ERA of 4.10 on the year, though his 24% strikeout rate is a big drop from last year’s 35.5% clip and his walk rate has gone from 6.1% to 9.4%. Pérez had an ERA of 2.89 last year but it’s ballooned to 4.74 this year, as his strikeout rate has gone from 20.6% to 14.8%.
If Heaney gets the gig, or even if he now pitches more innings out of the bullpen, it could impact his contract status. He signed a two-year deal with the Rangers this winter, though he’s allowed to opt-out of that deal this winter. His 2024 player option is valued at $13MM, though it jumps to $20MM if he reaches 150 innings pitched this year and does not have an injury that would prevent him from being on the active roster within 60 days of Opening Day 2024. He’s currently at 136 innings for the season, just 14 shy of that target.
But in the short-term, the Rangers will surely be focused on putting the best possible staff together for their remaining contests as they hope to qualify for the postseason for the first time since 2016.
West Notes: Scherzer, Trout, Nola, Martinez
Rangers ace Max Scherzer exited his start against the Twins after six innings yesterday due to what he described to reporters (including Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today) as a “little forearm tightness” and wasn’t sure he’d be able to pitch the seventh. That being said, Scherzer downplayed the severity of the issue, suggesting that his priority is to ensure that the issue doesn’t “turn into a forearm strain or Tommy John.”
Even though Scherzer downplays the issue, it’s surely worrisome for Rangers fans that he’s facing any issue at all. The veteran right-hander has posted a phenomenal 2.21 ERA (198 ERA+) and 2.48 FIP in his first six starts with the club since being acquired from the Mets ahead of the trade deadline back in July. With Jacob deGrom out for the year and Nathan Eovaldi on the injured list already, Scherzer will be key for a Rangers club looking to stay in a three-way race for the AL West crown that they were dominating earlier in the season, to say nothing of his importance as a key cog in their projected postseason rotation alongside fellow deadline acquisition Jordan Montgomery. In the event Scherzer misses a start or two while erring on the side of caution regarding his forearm, Texas could turn to right-hander Owen White or lefties Cody Bradford and Martin Perez to fill in for the future Hall of Famer when his turn in the rotation next comes up on Wednesday.
More from MLB’s West divisions…
- Superstar Mike Trout spoke with reporters (including Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register) regarding the future of the Angels organization this afternoon. Anaheim, of course, waived a number of pending free agents including prized deadline addition Lucas Giolito earlier this week, effectively conceding the 2023 campaign in a failed bid to duck under the luxury tax threshold before the season ends. “There are going to be some conversations in the winter, for sure.” Trout said, “Just to see the direction of everything and what the plan is.” Trout refused to comment on the possibility of a trade when asked if he could imagine a scenario where he would ask to be moved, though with two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani likely departing for free agency this offseason and a protracted rebuild potentially on the horizon for the Angels, it would certainly be understandable if the 32-year-old Trout wished to continue his career elsewhere in hopes of reaching a World Series.
- Padres catcher Austin Nola has had a brutal year at the plate in 2023, slashing just .146/.260/.192 in 154 trips to the plate with San Diego. An explanation for those struggles has seemingly been uncovered, as Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune relays that Nola has been diagnosed with oculomotor dysfunction, an issue that impacts the brain’s ability to coordinate eye movement. Nola referenced Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo and his issues with post-concussion syndrome as a catalyst for his decision to discuss symptoms, which included fogginess and headaches, with the Padres. The Padres have been using a catching tandem of Gary Sanchez and Luis Campusano in recent weeks as Nola tried to work things out at the Triple-A level. Nola hopes to return to the field in the minors before the Triple-A season ends on September 24.
- Dodgers slugger J.D. Martinez is trending toward a return to the big league club next weekend, per the Orange County Register’s Bill Plunkett. Plunkett relays that Martinez will begin a brief rehab assignment at Triple-A later this week and in the meantime will take swings at Camelback Ranch in Arizona. Martinez, 35, has been on the injured list for the past two weeks due to groin tightness and was slashing .256/.309/.547 with 25 home runs and a 126 wRC+ in 390 trips to the plate before going on the shelf.
MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Trade Deadline Recap
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss the happenings of the recent trade deadline, including:
- The Mets decided to sell and sell big, maybe even for 2024 (1:15)
- The AL West turned into an arms race, with the Astros getting Justin Verlander and the Rangers getting Max Scherzer, among other deals (15:15)
- The Padres decided to go for it, holding onto Blake Snell and Josh Hader, as well as acquiring others (23:25)
- Cubs also decide to go for it, holding onto Cody Bellinger and Marcus Stroman, acquiring Jeimer Candelario (26:55)
- The Reds were surprisingly quiet (29:35)
- The Twins also sat on their hands (33:40)
Check out our past episodes!
- The Angels Are All In, Lucas Giolito and Picking a Lane – listen here
- All Eyes on the Angels, Cardinals Trade Options and Buyers or Sellers – listen here
- Top Deadline Trade Candidates, Ohtani Trade Potential and the Slipping Rays – listen here
Rangers Move Martín Pérez To Bullpen
The Rangers brought in some new additions to their rotation at the deadline, acquiring both Max Scherzer from the Mets and Jordan Montgomery from the Cardinals. One of them will replace Nathan Eovaldi, who recently landed on the injured list. Another opening will be created by veteran Martín Pérez getting bumped to the bullpen, reports Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News. “It doesn’t mean that’s where he’s going to stay,” manager Bruce Bochy said of the move for Pérez. “But for this time around, that’s the plan.”
Pérez, 32, has a long track of being a serviceable major league pitcher. By the end of the 2021 season, he had tossed 1102 2/3 innings, allowing 4.71 earned runs per nine innings. His 15.3% strikeout rate was well below average, but his 8.3% walk rate and 49.2% ground ball were both solid enough to allow him to be of use.
For 2022, he signed a one-year, $4MM deal with the Rangers and went on to have a career year. He made 32 starts and posted a 2.89 ERA over 196 1/3 innings, getting his strikeout rate up to a career high of 20.6% while still limiting walks and grounders. That earned him a well-deserved raise, as the Rangers issued him a $19.65MM qualifying offer, which he accepted.
Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to build off that late-career breakout. His strikeout bump has vanished, as his 14.4% rate this year is low even by his standards. The walk rate is still solid at 8.6% but he’s only getting grounders at a 41% clip, a huge drop from last year’s 51.4% rate. His ERA on the year is 4.98, with only five qualified pitchers worse than him in that department this year. It’s also been trending in a bad direction, as he had a 2.41 ERA at the end of April but a 6.15 mark since the start of May.
With those results, it’s not shocking that he’s been nudged out of the starting mix. This is a road he has travelled down before, as the Red Sox bumped him to the bullpen in 2021, though he was able to get back on track with the aforementioned breakout in 2022. Perhaps he will do so again at some point but the Texas rotation will now seem to consist of Scherzer, Montgomery, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning.
Dunning started the year in the bullpen but jumped into the rotation when Jacob deGrom landed on the injured list, later to require Tommy John surgery. In 16 starts since the start of May, Dunning has a 3.43 ERA. His 17.6% strikeout rate in that time isn’t especially impressive but he’s higher than Pérez in that department while also walking just 6.7% of hitters and keeping the ball on the ground at a 44.9% clip.
It seems those strong results will allow him to keep his starting gig, at least for the time being. As Bochy mentioned, the club could mix things up again in the months to come, though the group could get a bit more crowded. Bochy expects the club to have Eovaldi back after a minimum IL stint, per Kennedi Landry of MLB.com, which will make it harder both for Pérez to get back in the mix and for Dunning to keep his spot. Perhaps Eovaldi’s return would see Dunning hold his spot and Heaney get bumped to the bullpen since the latter has a lackluster 4.36 ERA on the season. But he has been trending better of late, with a 2.95 mark in his last four outings.
Of course, the final few months could also see some plot twists that change all of this, best laid plans and whatnot. The AL West is shaping up to be a fascinating race to watch in the final months, as the Rangers made their aforementioned rotation additions while the Astros got Justin Verlander and the Angels nabbed Lucas Giolito. The Rangers will undoubtedly be making whatever moves they feel give them the best shot at success in the weeks to come, with the large salary of Pérez not enough to keep him from the bullpen. He’ll return to the open market this winter while Dunning will qualify for arbitration for the first time.
Scherzer: Mets Planning 2024 As “A Kind Of Transitory Year” With Focus On 2025-26
The Mets had a Major League record payroll of close to $357MM on Opening Day, as they followed up their 101-win season in 2022 with an incredibly aggressive offseason. However, just as the Mets broke new ground in building their roster, they have also been as aggressive in pivoting in the wake of a very disappointing four months.
With just a 50-55 record entering today’s action, the Mets have been one of the trade deadline’s busiest teams, unloading both major and minor names, rental players and some players controlled beyond the 2023 season. The long list of players departing Queens in the last six weeks includes Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, David Robertson, Tommy Pham, Mark Canha, Dominic Leone, and Eduardo Escobar, as the Mets have pursued a strategy of absorbing most of the salaries of those departed players in order to obtain more young talent in return.
As Scherzer told The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the Mets’ plan apparently extends to rebuilding not for the 2024 season, but for future seasons. Scherzer had to waive his no-trade protection in order to be dealt to the Rangers, and before making his decision, the ace first spoke with GM Billy Eppler and the Amazins’ longer-term plans.
According to Scherzer, “I was like, ‘OK, are we reloading for 2024?’ [Eppler] goes, ‘No, we’re not. Basically our vision now is for 2025-2026, ’25 at the earliest, more like ’26. We’re going to be making trades around that.’ I was like, ‘So the team is not going to be pursuing free agents this offseason or assemble a team that can compete for a World Series next year?’ He said, ‘No, we’re not going to be signing the upper-echelon guys. We’re going to be on the smaller deals within free agency. ‘24 is now looking to be more of a kind of transitory year.’ ”
A follow-up chat between Scherzer and Mets owner Steve Cohen took the same tack, which inspired Scherzer to waive his no-trade clause and approve the deal to the Rangers. “That’s basically what Steve said: ‘I never thought in a million years we’d be in this situation, being at the deadline and we’re actually selling. But the math is the math. And the math says this organization needs to retool.’ That was Steve saying that. I said, ‘I get it. I’m not here to say you’re wrong.’ It is what it is. I understand from Steve’s perspective that’s the direction he wants to take the team based on where everyone is at within their contracts, arbitration, free agency. That was the new vision for the Mets.”
However, Scherzer also noted that “if they had said, ‘We’re going to hold on to all the ‘24 pieces,’ that would have been a different story.”
“But they were saying no, we’re going to be moving players that are under contract for 2024 before the deadline. We walked through some players I had in mind who would be that. It turned out it was much more extensive than that. The players we ended up talking about who are free agents after ‘24, they were more substantial names. Any player who was a free agent after 2024 at the right price could be moved right now at the deadline. That’s a completely different vision from what everybody had in the clubhouse. All the players had a vision of, we reload for 2024. That was no longer the case.”
Scherzer (who had an opt-out clause), Canha ($11.5MM club option for 2024), and Verlander were the only players controlled beyond 2023 who ended up being moved, as the likes of Jose Quintana and other club-option players like Brooks Raley, Omar Narvaez, and Adam Ottavino are all still with New York. Still, obviously moving two cornerstone aces like Scherzer and Verlander marked a severe change in direction for the Mets’ plans, as trading either pitcher in a deadline deal would’ve seem far-fetched given the hefty investment made in both future Hall-of-Famers over the last two winters. Verlander was signed to a two-year, $86.67MM with a conditional player option for 2025, while Scherzer came to Queens in the 2021-22 offseason on a three-year, $130MM pact.
In the wake of Scherzer’s trade, Eppler stated to reporters that “I do want to be clear that it’s not a rebuild. It’s not a fire sale. It’s not a liquidation. This is just a repurposing of Steve’s investment in the club, and kind of shifting that investment from the team into the organization.” Talking with media (including SNY’s John Flanigan) today, Eppler didn’t comment on Scherzer’s statements to Rosenthal, but expanded on his previous statement and reiterated that the Mets weren’t going to tank.
“One of the goals here is to expedite the longer-term goal. We’re trying to restock and reload the farm system,” Eppler said. “You have to go through a little pain to get where we want to go, but I feel like the organization is making strides towards a better future…..Going into 2024 we don’t see ourselves having the same odds that we did in 2022 and 2023, but we will field a competitive team.”
Cohen made similar remarks in a text to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, saying “We will be competitive in ’24 but I think 25-26 is when our young talent makes an impact. Lots of pitching in free agency in ’24. More payroll flexibility in ’25. Got a lot of dead money in ’24.”
Since buying the Mets in November 2020, Cohen has been quite open about his bigger-picture dream for the club — citing the Dodgers as the model, Cohen wanted to field a consistent contender with the resources to acquire premium free agents or trade targets, but largely fueled by star talent developed by the Mets’ own farm system. Cohen didn’t want to wait for that prospect base to be fully built before the Mets started winning, however, and said that he would spend heavily to make the team a contender in the interim.
As it has turned out, this initial plan might just result in one winning season in Cohen’s first three years running the club. The Mets were 77-85 in 2021, are on pace for a losing record this year, and even the 101-win performance last year was muted when the Padres ousted them in the wild card series. Rather than splurge again to restock a flawed roster for 2024, it makes sense that Cohen and Eppler might view taking a step back in order to hopefully two steps forward in 2025 or 2026, rather than continue to tread water in a competitive NL East. The Braves look like surefire contenders for years to come, the Phillies won the NL pennant last year, and the Marlins have also gotten themselves back into the playoff race.
The new direction opens a wealth of new possibilities for the Mets this coming offseason. It can be assumed that highly-touted youngsters Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty aren’t going anywhere, if New York wants to expand its young core. Players recently signed to longer-term contracts or extensions (i.e. Francisco Lindor, Kodai Senga, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, Edwin Diaz) aren’t likely to be moved either, since this group will all still be around during the Mets’ new timeline for contention.
Beyond that core, it’s fair to wonder if any other Mets player might be on the trade market this winter. That includes Jose Quintana (signed through 2024) and Starling Marte (signed through 2025), as while neither has amassed much of a track record in 2023, the Mets have shown that they’re more than willing to eat money to accommodate trades. The biggest question mark might hang over Pete Alonso, as the slugger has one final arbitration-eligible year remaining before he enters free agency following the 2024 campaign.
Roster Resource projects that New York has roughly $204.2MM on the books for 2024 already, but a step back from contention might also logically mean a desire for the team to reset its luxury tax status. The Mets obviously blew past the highest tax levels in both 2022 and 2023, but getting out of tax territory entirely ($237MM is the lowest threshold level in 2024) would both reduce the team’s financial penalty, and more importantly the asset-related penalties attached with tax overages. For instance, the Mets would be able to sign qualifying-offer free agents for a lesser cost of draft picks, while also netting a higher draft return for any of their own free agents who reject a QO and sign elsewhere. In other punishment for incurring such a high tax bill in 2022, the Mets also had their first pick in the 2023 draft pushed back by ten slots, and their international signing pool was reduced.
If the Amazins aren’t planning to be big spenders this winter, that naturally has a big impact on this offseason’s free agent class, given how Cohen’s largesse has driven the market over the last two years. Given the relatively thin nature of the 2023-24 class, the Mets front office might be planning to capitalize by using some of their roster as trade chips, as rival clubs might not find what they’re looking for in free agency. As Cohen noted, there are plenty of interesting pitchers available following the 2024 season if the Mets do intend only a one-year step back, such as Scherzer again, Max Fried, Zack Wheeler, Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and many others.
Speaking Burnes and Woodruff, it would remiss if we didn’t mention the persistent rumors that the Mets will pursue David Stearns as the next president of baseball operations, as Cohen said last month that he is still looking to install a new executive above Eppler on the decision-making pyramid. Stearns’ contract with the Brewers is up after the season, and if the speculation is true and he does head to New York for his next job, it might make sense if Stearns eventually pursues some of his old Milwaukee players. That said, whether Stearns or someone else is the new president, it would make sense that the Mets gives the new hire at least a year to fully assess the organization, before turning back towards contending in 2025 or 2026.
Rangers Acquire Max Scherzer From Mets
The Rangers and Mets have agreed to a trade that will see the star right-hander Max Scherzer head to Texas, with prospect Luisangel Acuña heading the other way. The Mets are paying down all but $22.5MM of the remaining money owed to Scherzer, who will waive his no-trade clause. He will also trigger his player option for 2024, forgoing his opt-out opportunity.
The Mets signed Scherzer to a three-year, $130MM deal going into the 2022 season, as part of a high-spending strategy aimed at contention. The first year generally went well, as the Mets won 101 games with Scherzer contributing 23 starts of 2.29 ERA ball. This year hasn’t been nearly as successful, however, as the Mets have slumped to 49-54 and 6.5 games out of a playoff spot. It seems they have accepted the fact that they have to do some selling, having already flipped David Robertson to the Marlins.
That’s also come with diminished results from Scherzer, who has posted an ERA of 4.01 this year, working around a 10-game sticky stuff suspension earlier in the season. His strikeouts have dipped this season, with his 27.3% rate representing his lowest since 2011.
With the Mets struggling, it’s led to speculation about how they would react. Impending free agents like Robertson, Tommy Pham and others seemed like natural trade candidates, but Scherzer’s situation was more complicated. As mentioned, he had a full no-trade clause and would need to agree to any deal. It was reported in June that he was willing to waive that clause under certain circumstances, though without concrete information about what it would take for him to do so.
Further complicating matters was Scherzer’s ability to opt out of the final year of his deal, leaving $43.33MM on the table. Some sources describe this as a player option, though the situation is the same either way, with Scherzer getting to decide whether to become a free agent or not. He spoke about his situation earlier this week, saying that he’s “not going to be a free agent” and “can see a path to contend next year” with the Mets. Though he also said he would speak with the front office about the club’s direction.
He’s still owed just under $15MM for the remainder of this season, on top of the $43.33MM for next year, a total just north of $58MM. Whatever return the Rangers were willing to send to the Mets might have taken a different shape if they were to view Scherzer as a rental or a pickup for a year and a half with a massive salary. They reportedly wanted Scherzer to lock in that 2024 season, which he has now apparently done.
Since the Mets are paying down all but $22.5MM, that means they’re eating more than $35MM in this deal. The Mets have shown a tendency to eat money in trades in order to maximize returns, such as sending Eduardo Escobar to the Angels and James McCann to the Orioles, and have done so here.
The Rangers have been clearly looking for starting pitching recently, having been connected to Lance Lynn, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Verlander and Scherzer. They have had a couple of rotation setbacks this year, most notably the loss of Jacob deGrom. He was signed to a five-year, $185MM guarantee in the offseason but required Tommy John surgery in June, putting him out for the remainder of this year and some of 2024 as well. They also lost Jake Odorizzi to a season-ending shoulder surgery.
The club has operated for most of the season with a rotation of Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Martín Pérez and Andrew Heaney, with Dane Dunning stepping in for deGrom. The results from that group have been varied, with Eovaldi’s 2.69 ERA the lowest and Pérez the highest at 4.91. Dunning is at 3.28 but with a 15.5% strikeout rate that’s well below league average. Since his .269 batting average on balls in play and 77.5% strand rate are on the lucky side, his 4.26 FIP and 4.88 SIERA suggest he’s skirted around some runs. He’s the only member of the rotation with options and could perhaps wind up in the minors as depth, though he’s also worked out of the bullpen before. Additionally, Eovaldi is dealing with some elbow soreness, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. He’s not going on the IL yet but his scheduled start is being pushed back. Although Scherzer’s not having his best season, he would still be an upgrade for that group. By sticking around for 2024, he will also help them cover for Pérez becoming a free agent, with deGrom potentially returning later in the year.
The Rangers are currently 60-44 and hold a two-game lead over the Astros in the American League West, with the third-place Angels aggressively pursuing upgrades as well. The Rangers haven’t made the postseason since 2016, which was also the last time they finished above .500. They’ve shown a willingness to be very aggressive in recent years as they look to get out of that spiral, giving out huge deals to players like Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, as well as the aforementioned starting pitchers. They’ve already bolstered their bullpen by acquiring Aroldis Chapman and now have made a massive move for their rotation.
It was reported this week that the club would be open to surpassing the $233MM base threshold of the luxury tax for Verlander, though it remains to be seen if they will do the same for Scherzer. Roster Resource currently lists their CBT figure at $224MM, or $9MM below the line. Assuming the $22.5MM they are paying Scherzer is evenly distributed between now and the end of next year, they’ll be adding just under $6MM to that. That will leave them shy of the line for now but further moves could tip the scales.
In order to obtain Scherzer’s services, the club has parted with Acuña. The 21-year-old shortstop is the younger brother of Atlanta’s superstar outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Signed out of Venezuela in 2018, he has climbed through the minor league ranks to reach Double-A. In 84 games at that level this year, he’s hitting .315/.377/.453 for a wRC+ of 121 while stealing 42 bases. Baseball America currently lists him at the #87 prospect in the league while FanGraphs has him at #56. BA suspects he’ll have to move to second base eventually but that he could be a solid regular there.
As for the Mets, this could perhaps give some hint as to how far they are willing to go in trading from this year’s roster in order to acquire help for future seasons. They’ve already traded Robertson and could shop other impending free agents like Pham and Carlos Carrasco. Mark Canha and Brooks Raley could also make sense, though they are pure rentals since the club has options for 2024. Omar Narváez and Adam Ottavino have player options for 2024. José Quintana‘s contract runs through 2024 and he has received some trade interest.
The bigger fish, though, is Verlander. He just signed a two-year deal in the offseason that pays him $43.33MM per year, matching Scherzer’s salary, with a conditional $35MM option for 2025 as well. Like Scherzer, he also has a full no-trade clause and said just a few days ago that the club hadn’t yet approached him about waiving it. But it was later reported that the club would only approach the players about their clauses after finding workable trade packages, which seems to have been the case in this Scherzer deal.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Michael Schwab of Juice Box Journal first reported that the Rangers had a deal in place for Scherzer, contingent on him waiving his no-trade clause. Andy Martino of Steve Gelbs of SNY relayed that Scherzer would waive his clause, but that the financial components of the deal weren’t complete. Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported on Acuña’s inclusion in the deal, as well as the fact that the Rangers wanted him to forego his opt-out at season’s end and that the deal was done. Martino relayed the financials while Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that Scherzer will trigger in his 2024 option, with Heyman adding that he’ll receive some additional amenities for doing so.
Latest On Justin Verlander
Few potential trade candidates are as notable as Justin Verlander. There are myriad complications that could stand in the way of a deal, but there’s been speculation over the past couple days about the chance of Verlander being on the move.
Mark Feinsand of MLB.com suggested Thursday night there was some industry sentiment the Mets would look to move him. Feinsand listed the Astros and Rangers as potential fits. Will Sammon and Tim Britton of the Athletic also indicated that the two Texas-based franchises had expressed some interest, writing that the Mets at least appear willing to genuinely consider offers on Verlander and Max Scherzer.
Still, it remains to be seen how aggressively other teams would pursue either player. Sammon and Britton characterize Texas’ interest in Verlander mostly as due diligence as they evaluate all their rotation possibilities. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News wrote yesterday that Texas would be open to surpassing the competitive balance tax threshold in a Verlander trade. However, he similarly indicated the Rangers are checking in on virtually every pitcher on the market, with nothing to suggest Verlander talks have gotten particularly advanced. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that Texas has also inquired on reliever Brooks Raley and corner outfielder Tommy Pham.
Texas has a luxury tax number around $224MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. They’re $9MM shy of the $233MM base threshold. Verlander is due around $15.4MM through season’s end, so an acquisition would push Texas past that marker unless the Mets paid down a significant chunk of the salary.
New York might be willing to do so. They paid down all of Eduardo Escobar’s deal and are reportedly willing to send cash in other trades, although they didn’t include any money in the David Robertson swap with Miami. There’s a ways to go to get to that point, though. New York would have to weigh the possible return against subtracting a key player who’s under contract for 2024, when the Mets surely envision a return to competitiveness.
That’s even before considering the players’ ability to block any deal. Both Verlander and Scherzer have complete no-trade rights. Understandably, neither has gone on record about whether they’d waive that provision. Verlander said a few days ago the Mets had not approached him about that possibility. Scherzer told the New York beat last night that he’d likely speak with the front office about the franchise’s direction over the next few days. Sherman indicates the Mets would only gauge the pitchers’ willingness to waive the no-trade clauses if they first find a potentially workable trade package.
Texas pursued Verlander as a free agent last winter. He reportedly wasn’t keen on joining the Rangers at the time, although that’s seemingly because he questioned how quickly they’d be competitive. That’s no longer in doubt with the Rangers topping the AL West by two games and motivated deadline buyers.
There’s plenty of familiarity between Verlander and the Astros, of course. Houston has been on the hunt for a starting pitcher for a few weeks. General manager Dana Brown downplayed the rotation need a bit after acquiring reliever Kendall Graveman yesterday, however. Brown indicated that while Houston was still open to adding a starter, the rotation is “not as high a priority as the bullpen was,” in part because of the loftier asking price teams are demanding to relinquish starting pitching (link via Chandler Rome of the Athletic).