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Latest On Justin Verlander

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Few potential trade candidates are as notable as Justin Verlander. There are myriad complications that could stand in the way of a deal, but there’s been speculation over the past couple days about the chance of Verlander being on the move.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com suggested Thursday night there was some industry sentiment the Mets would look to move him. Feinsand listed the Astros and Rangers as potential fits. Will Sammon and Tim Britton of the Athletic also indicated that the two Texas-based franchises had expressed some interest, writing that the Mets at least appear willing to genuinely consider offers on Verlander and Max Scherzer.

Still, it remains to be seen how aggressively other teams would pursue either player. Sammon and Britton characterize Texas’ interest in Verlander mostly as due diligence as they evaluate all their rotation possibilities. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News wrote yesterday that Texas would be open to surpassing the competitive balance tax threshold in a Verlander trade. However, he similarly indicated the Rangers are checking in on virtually every pitcher on the market, with nothing to suggest Verlander talks have gotten particularly advanced. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that Texas has also inquired on reliever Brooks Raley and corner outfielder Tommy Pham.

Texas has a luxury tax number around $224MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. They’re $9MM shy of the $233MM base threshold. Verlander is due around $15.4MM through season’s end, so an acquisition would push Texas past that marker unless the Mets paid down a significant chunk of the salary.

New York might be willing to do so. They paid down all of Eduardo Escobar’s deal and are reportedly willing to send cash in other trades, although they didn’t include any money in the David Robertson swap with Miami. There’s a ways to go to get to that point, though. New York would have to weigh the possible return against subtracting a key player who’s under contract for 2024, when the Mets surely envision a return to competitiveness.

That’s even before considering the players’ ability to block any deal. Both Verlander and Scherzer have complete no-trade rights. Understandably, neither has gone on record about whether they’d waive that provision. Verlander said a few days ago the Mets had not approached him about that possibility. Scherzer told the New York beat last night that he’d likely speak with the front office about the franchise’s direction over the next few days. Sherman indicates the Mets would only gauge the pitchers’ willingness to waive the no-trade clauses if they first find a potentially workable trade package.

Texas pursued Verlander as a free agent last winter. He reportedly wasn’t keen on joining the Rangers at the time, although that’s seemingly because he questioned how quickly they’d be competitive. That’s no longer in doubt with the Rangers topping the AL West by two games and motivated deadline buyers.

There’s plenty of familiarity between Verlander and the Astros, of course. Houston has been on the hunt for a starting pitcher for a few weeks. General manager Dana Brown downplayed the rotation need a bit after acquiring reliever Kendall Graveman yesterday, however. Brown indicated that while Houston was still open to adding a starter, the rotation is “not as high a priority as the bullpen was,” in part because of the loftier asking price teams are demanding to relinquish starting pitching (link via Chandler Rome of the Athletic).

Dodgers Rumors: Verlander, E-Rod, Singer, Keller, Cardinals, Scherzer, Canha, Pham

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The Dodgers have already both added and subtracted from their pitching mix prior to the deadline, acquiring Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly from the White Sox while also shipping out Noah Syndergaard to the Guardians in exchange for Amed Rosario.  Between these moves and the re-acqusition of old friend Enrique Hernandez from the Red Sox, Los Angeles has already checked several boxes on their wishlist with over three days to go until the trade deadline, but more transactions seem likely given the Dodgers’ aggression.

Pitching remains the focus, as while Lynn will theoretically fill one hole, Lynn’s inconsistency and the Dodgers’ relative lack of rotation has put a lot of other hurlers on the team’s radar.  According to Jack Harris and Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times, the Dodgers’ list of targets include Justin Verlander, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brady Singer, Mitch Keller, Jack Flaherty, and Jordan Montgomery.  Beyond Verlander, the Dodgers are also looking at a couple of other Mets players to address their outfield needs, as The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reports that Tommy Pham and Mark Canha are of interest.

One Met who apparently isn’t under heavy consideration is Max Scherzer, as Harris/Castillo write that “the likelihood…isn’t as strong” of Scherzer heading to Chavez Ravine at another trade deadline.  L.A. memorably landed Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals two years ago, but Scherzer was a rental at the time, just two-plus months away from free agency.  Scherzer implied yesterday that he would be exercising his $43.333MM player option for 2024, and with the Mets likely to ask for a strong trade return, the uncertainty over that player option makes Scherzer a pricey add both financially (he is also still owed $16MM for the rest of 2023) and from a prospect cost.

Given how aggressive the Dodgers have been, a Scherzer reunion might not be entirely ruled out until either the team makes another pitching move, or until Scherzer is potentially shipped elsewhere.  With Verlander, Pham and Canha also apparently under discussion, the Dodgers’ talks with the Mets could go in several directions between now and Tuesday’s 5pm CT deadline.

Similarly, there are plenty of layers to the negotiations between the Dodgers and Cardinals, as Nolan Arenado is yet another star name Los Angeles has explored.  In a move akin to that Scherzer/Turner blockbuster of 2021, the Dodgers could aim to land both a major position player and a rental pitcher (either Montgomery or Flaherty) in the same deal.  Harris/Castillo note that L.A. might also pursue either Montgomery or Flaherty on their own, should the more complicated machinations of an Arenado deal fall through.

Rodriguez has drawn attention from several other teams as the deadline approaches, and the Tigers left-hander’s status is also impacted by a contractual option.  Rodriguez has the ability to opt out of his contract after the season, leaving three years and $49MM on the table in search of a richer and longer-term deal.  An opt-out seems like a distinct possibility the way E-Rod has been pitching, yet an injury or a drop in form (with the Tigers or a new team) could certainly still occur post-deadline, leading to a change in his thinking.  If this did happen after a trade, a new club could find itself on the books for $49MM of a suddenly distressed asset, which surely factors into the thinking of the Dodgers and any other team considering the southpaw.

Beyond these veteran rental players, the Dodgers are also slightly expanding their perimeters to look at more controllable pitchers.  The Pirates have arbitration control on Keller through the 2025 season, while the Royals have Singer arb-controlled through 2026.  Keller seems like the longer shot, as Pittsburgh is perhaps only listening to trade offers out of due diligence, and would command a huge prospect return in any deal.  While Los Angeles is one of the teams with the prospect depth to perhaps get the Pirates’ attention, it doesn’t seem likely that the Bucs will move Keller anywhere at the deadline or even in the near future, as Pittsburgh may have an eye on fully turning the corner back into contending in 2024.

“No traction toward a deal has materialized” between the Dodgers and Royals, so Singer is probably also not on the move.  The former first-rounder has a breakout season in 2022 but has struggled to a 5.46 ERA over 113 2/3 innings this year, albeit with a somewhat more favorable 4.41 SIERA.  It is possible that L.A. was looking to buy low on the righty (who turns 27 next week), just in case Kansas City was considering a wider-range rebuild in the wake of its disastrous 2023 season.  The Royals are in a tough spot given the lack of production from almost all of their projected cornerstone young players, yet while it isn’t clear what the next step will be for the franchise, it does seem too soon for K.C. to give up on Singer, one of the few members of that group who has had some level of success in the majors.

Returning to Verlander, he would also bring a bit more control than a rental player, as he owed $43.333MM in 2024 and he can earn a $35MM player option for 2025 if he pitches at least 140 innings in 2024.  It’s a steep price tag for a pitcher who turns 41 in February, as even though Verlander has pitched closer to his vintage form in the last few weeks, he missed time earlier this year due to a teres major strain and was then shaky in his first few starts of 2023.

Perhaps more relevant to August 1, Verlander has a full no-trade clause in his contract, and said earlier this week that “I’m focused on being a Met.  I want to win here…Obviously it hasn’t gone according to plan just yet, but I didn’t sign a one-year deal.”  Since the Mets have already started to trade veterans and look ahead to 2024, it is possible Verlander might change his mind should a contender make an offer, and there has been a connection between Verlander and Los Angeles in the past.  The Dodgers pushed to sign Verlander in free agency last winter, with Harris/Castillo writing that L.A. offered the future Hall-of-Famer two years and $80MM.

Max Scherzer Discusses Future With Mets

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The Mets kicked off what’s likely to be a deadline sell-off last night, sending David Robertson to Miami. It’d seemed a long time in the making with New York unable to get above .500 but still marked a symbolic blow for a team that entered the year with championship aspirations.

How aggressively New York will retool the roster remains to be seen. Short-term veterans like Tommy Pham, Brooks Raley and Mark Canha seem likely to move within the next few days. There’s been increasing chatter about a pair of much bigger names: Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.

After his start tonight, Scherzer spoke with the New York beat about his future (relayed by Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). While he conceded the roster “put (itself) in this position” by not playing up to expectations, he noted his disappointment with the club’s situation. Regarding both whether he still had confidence in the team to compete in 2023 and his longer-term future with the organization, Scherzer said he was likely to speak with the front office about the club’s direction.

Scherzer declined to say whether he’d be willing to waive his no-trade rights. However, he seemed to tip his hand regarding the $43.333MM player option in his contract for next season. The three-time Cy Young winner said he’s “not going to be a free agent,” distinguishing this from the 2021 deadline when Scherzer waived his no-trade clause to go from the Nationals to the Dodgers three months before free agency.

The star hurler didn’t directly say he was a lock to opt in to next season. His contract with Washington didn’t have any option years, so there was no question he was headed to free agency that winter. Between his no-trade rights and player options, Scherzer has the ability to ensure he’s a Met in 2024. He added he “can see a path to contend next year” with New York but noted that’s pending a conversation with team brass.

Scherzer’s comments surely won’t quiet speculation about the chances of another deadline blockbuster. Yet they’re far from ensuring a move will happen. Even if Scherzer were willing to waive his no-trade rights, the Mets would need to find a deal they consider tenable. Andy Martino of SNY wrote this afternoon the Mets were finding more interest in Verlander of the two pitchers.

Both are making a record annual salary north of $43MM. Verlander is under guaranteed contract next season and has a vesting player option for 2025. Scherzer owns a 4.01 ERA through 107 2/3 innings. He’s striking hitters out at a quality 27.3% clip and limiting walks but has struggled with home runs.

Latest On Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer

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The Mets’ sell-off began in earnest last night when they traded David Robertson to the division-rival Marlins, and further deals are widely expected to come together in the days leading up to Tuesday’s trade deadline. Veteran outfielders Mark Canha and Tommy Pham can be free agents at season’s end — Canha has a 2024 club option — and figure to hold interest to contenders seeking right-handed bats and/or general outfield help. But perhaps no two players will be of as much interest to fans in the next few days as future Hall of Famers Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.

Andy Martino of SNY reports that the Mets have thus far received “moderate” interest in Verlander but have not had meaningful enough talks to even approach the three-time Cy Young winner about waiving his no-trade clause. Scherzer has drawn less interest, per Martino.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported late last night that a pair of executives with other clubs believe there’s a real chance the Mets will ultimately trade Verlander. He listed the Rangers and Astros as potential fits, and Martino adds (without directly tying them to Verlander) that the Angels and Reds have been scouting the Mets of late. Feinsand adds that the Rangers were in on Verlander in the offseason, but the 40-year-old righty was more keen on signing with what he viewed as a contending club in Queens. It’s only reasonable to think he’d view the Rangers more favorably now; Texas is leading the AL West and owns the third-best winning percentage and top run differential in the American League. He’s certainly no stranger to pitching in Texas either, having spent several years with the Astros.

Obviously, there would be plenty of obstacles to any trade actually coming together. First and foremost, both Verlander and Scherzer have full no-trade clauses in their contracts. They’d have to approve any deal, although one can imagine that the opportunity to go from a struggling Mets team into the type of playoff chase both envisioned when signing in New York would be quite enticing. Both players are also earning a record $43.333MM annual salary on the contracts they signed in free agency — a massive number which would rule some contending clubs out entirely. Owner Steve Cohen could of course pay down some of that salary in order to facilitate a trade, but the specifics of how much cash to include and what caliber of prospects to send back for either multi-time Cy Young winner would be difficult to broker.

Beyond the contractual hurdles, the simple fact is that neither Verlander nor Scherzer has pitched as well in 2023 as in recent seasons. Verlander’s 3.24 ERA is a perfect match for his career mark, but this year’s 20.9% strikeout rate 8.2% walk rate are nowhere close to last year’s respective rates of 27.8% and 4.4%. Verlander’s 94.6 mph average fastball, 10% swinging-strike rate and 34.9% opponents’ chase rate are all down slightly from last year’s levels of 95.1 mph, 11.6% and 36.9%, as well.

Verlander, who missed the first five weeks of the season due to a strained teres major, is guaranteed $43.333MM this year and next. His contract contains a conditional $35MM player option for the 2025 season that would vest if he pitches 140 innings next year.

As for Scherzer, he’s sporting a 4.20 ERA that would be the second-highest mark of his career — his worst since a 4.43 showing way back in 2011. His 27.4% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate are down from his 2022 levels (30.6% and 4.2%) but still remain considerably better than the league average. However, he’s also giving up home runs at the highest rate of his career. Scherzer has yielded an average of 1.97 round-trippers per nine innings pitched and seen a whopping 16.8% of his fly-balls leave the yard. The latter of those two numbers seems bound for some regression, but Scherzer is giving up hard contact at his highest levels since Statcast began tracking batted-ball data (89.1 mph average exit velocity, 10.3% barrel rate, 38.7% hard-hit rate).

Scherzer is in the second season of a three-year, $130MM contract pays him $43.333MM annually, but he has the right to opt out of the final year of that deal this winter. Barring a return to vintage form over the final couple months, he’s unlikely to match that type of payday on the open market. However, Scherzer suggested prior to the season that the opt-out was negotiated into his contract in large part to see where the organization stood at that point. He knew his now-former teammate Jacob deGrom had a looming opt-out in his deal and wanted to ensure that the Mets would remain committed to fielding a winning club in the event deGrom departed. The Mets certainly strived to do so in 2023, but things haven’t worked out.

Reports have since suggested that Scherzer is willing to waive his no-trade clause, which is only sensible if winning is his his top priority. His willingness to do so hardly guarantees that a deal will come to fruition, but with the Mets beginning to trade short-term veterans, both Scherzer and Verlander figure to be oft-discussed names over the next four days.

Max Scherzer Reportedly Open To Waiving No-Trade Clause

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The Mets have dropped seven of their last ten, leaving them at 35-43 heading into Tuesday’s game against Milwaukee. Coming off a 101-win season and boasting the highest player payroll in MLB history, they’re on the shortlist of the most disappointing teams in the league.

A little more than a month from the trade deadline, New York could wind up being one of the more fascinating clubs to follow. Ownership and the front office would surely prefer the club plays its way back into contention and puts them in position to add this summer, though that’s no small feat. Hopes of winning the NL East are gone, and the team sits 8 1/2 games out of the last Wild Card spot with six teams to surpass.

If the Mets pivot to selling off veteran pieces, opposing teams could at least ponder a run at Max Scherzer. The three-time Cy Young award winner is in the second season of a three-year, $130MM free agent deal. He’s making an MLB-record $43.333MM annually and can opt out and retest free agency at season’s end.

Scherzer’s deal contains a full no-trade clause, so the Mets couldn’t move him without his consent. Industry sources suggest to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com that Scherzer would be amenable to waiving the provision in the right circumstances — presumably one that’d see him shipped to a team with legitimate 2023 championship aspirations. Scherzer famously waived a no-trade clause in his deal with the Nationals at the 2021 deadline, enabling the stunner that landed him and Trea Turner in Dodger blue.

That’s not to say a trade is likely this time around. The no-trade clause is one of myriad roadblocks. The Mets aren’t going to pull the plug on the ’23 season until absolutely necessary; the roster still has a few weeks to take itself off the bubble. Even if the Mets were to consider moving veteran players, parting with Scherzer would represent a much bigger decision than relinquishing pure rentals like David Robertson and Tommy Pham.

While Scherzer could join Robertson and Pham on the open market, he’s by no means a lock to do so. He’d have to forfeit the largest single-year salary in MLB history. Scherzer isn’t performing at vintage level and will turn 39 next month, so there’s no assurance he’d do much better than $43.333MM on the open market. The eight-time All-Star might be able to top that guarantee but would probably have to spread it over a two-year deal with lesser yearly salaries.

Over 13 starts and 70 2/3 innings, he’s carrying a 3.95 ERA. His 26.2% strikeout rate is still quite good but a few points below typical levels. His velocity and swinging strike numbers aren’t far off his customary marks, though he’s allowing home runs at a career-high clip.

If the Mets feel Scherzer is unlikely to opt out, they could view dealing him this summer as too much of a blow to their 2024 chances even if they’re definitively out of this year’s mix. The record salaries, meanwhile, could be a problem for teams considering a run at him. It’s unlikely another franchise would absorb the approximate $14.2MM Scherzer will collect between August 1 and season’s end, to say nothing of the ’24 commitment they could assume if he doesn’t test free agency.

Of course, the Mets could shoulder much of Scherzer’s deal to facilitate a trade if they wanted to restock the farm system. Andy Martino of SNY reported last week that owner Steve Cohen was willing to leverage his spending capacity to bolster the prospect pipeline — either by taking on another team’s undesirable deal or covering contracts of players shipped out of Queens. New York put that into action by paying down Eduardo Escobar’s $9.5MM salary to the league minimum to facilitate his trade to the Angels.

Doing the same with Scherzer would be in a completely different stratosphere — both in terms of the money New York is retaining and the hit they’d deal to the MLB roster. There’s no indication it’s a consideration right now. That Scherzer may not be categorically opposed to changing uniforms at least leaves open the possibility of a second blockbuster in three years, but the no-trade clause is far from the only impediment.

NL Notes: Nationals, Scherzer, Gallen

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Fans of the Nationals received positive injury news today, as their Triple-A affiliate in Rochester announced that left fielder Corey Dickerson is set to begin a rehab assignment. Dickerson signed in Washington on a one-year deal this past offseason, but appeared in just two games for the club prior to the club placing Dickerson on the 10-day injured list with a calf strain. Dickerson, who will celebrate his 34th birthday later this month, is in his eleventh season as a major league player, with a career 112 wRC+.

That solid production would be a boon to a Nationals club that has mostly used 28-year-old outfielder Alex Call in left field while Dickerson has been on the shelf. Call has struggled so far in 143 trips to the plate for the Nationals this season, with a .230/.329/.336 slash line (86 wRC+) so far this season. That being said, Dickerson is not without flaws himself: his wRC+ has declined to a mark of just 97 since the beginning of the 2020 season, and he has hampered by a significant platoon split that has seen him post just a .693 OPS against left-handed pitchers throughout his career.

Fortunately for the Nationals, however, they have a seemingly perfect platoon partner for Dickerson in the form of Stone Garrett, a 27-year-old slugger who has slashed .344/.368/.594 against left-handers in 72 career plate appearances in the majors. Platooning Dickerson with Garrett upon his return to the lineup could help the Nationals solve their offensive woes in left field, where the club’s 85 wRC+ ranks seventh worst in the majors.

Dickerson may not be the only reinforcements on the horizon from the injured list, however. MLB.com’s injury tracker notes that right-hander Chad Kuhl, who signed with the Nationals on a minor league deal during the offseason, threw a simulated game of over 60 pitches earlier this week. Kuhl, who has been on the IL with sprained toe since the beginning of the month, could threaten the spot of right-hander Jake Irvin in the rotation going forward. While Irvin is expected to make his next start, the Nationals figure to reevaluate their rotation after that, with Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post noting that Kuhl’s return could give the Nationals the opportunity to manage the 26-year-old Irvin’s innings going forward.

More from around the National League…

  • Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests that the Mets, while not concerned about the neck issue that caused veteran right-hander Max Scherzer to be scratched from his start earlier in the week, are worried that the 38-year-old’s ailment near the scapula, which caused the club to push back one of his starts in mid-April, could be an issue that Scherzer will need to manage all year. It’s been a difficult start to the 2023 campaign for Scherzer, who has posted a 5.56 ERA in 22 2/3 innings amid multiple injury concerns and a 10-game suspension for violating the league’s policy on foreign substances.
  • As noted by Bob Nightengale of USA Today, budding ace Zac Gallen has expressed interest in staying with the Diamondbacks long term, though he noted a preference for avoiding in-season extension negotiations. Gallen, 27, has emerged as one of the game’s best pitchers in recent years, including a breakout campaign last season that saw him post a 2.54 ERA in 184 innings en route to a top 5 finish in NL Cy Young award voting. Fortunately for Arizona, they have plenty of time to discuss a long term deal with their young ace, who is set to hit free agency after the 2025 campaign.

Mets Notes: Scherzer, Peterson, Yacabonis, Carrasco

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The Mets announced that today’s scheduled starter, Max Scherzer, was scratched due to neck spasms. Left-hander David Peterson was recalled to start tonight instead. Right-hander Jimmy Yacabonis was placed on the 15-day injured list with a left quad strain, which opened a roster spot for Peterson and allowed the lefty to return less than 15 days after being optioned.

The issue with Scherzer appears to be minor, as he was not placed on the injured list, but it is at least somewhat concerning that he’s not at full health. The 38-year-old hasn’t quite seemed himself so far this season, seemingly unable to get into a good groove. He allowed eight earned runs in his first two outings but came back with five scoreless frames in his third. It was in his fourth start that he was ejected for excessive stickiness on his hands, which also led to a 10-game suspension. He showed a bit of rust after serving that sentence, allowing six earned runs against the Tigers last week.

All told, he has an ERA of 5.56 thus far, a significant difference from last year’s 2.29 mark. The severity of this neck issue will likely become more clear in the coming days but it appears to be yet another speed bump for a rotation that has seen many. Justin Verlander started the year on the injured list due to a teres major strain and just returned last week while José Quintana has been there all year due to rib surgery and isn’t expected to return until July. Carlos Carrasco began the year healthy but landed on the IL after just three starts due to a bone spur in his elbow. All of those hurdles are part of the reason the club has limped out to a 17-18 start and is seven games back of Atlanta in the NL East.

It remains to be seen whether Scherzer will just need a few days of extra rest or a significant stretch of time off. Peterson will likely be quickly optioned in the former scenario but could also stick around in the latter, joining Verlander, Kodai Senga, Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchesi in the improvised rotation. Scherzer seems to be on the optimistic side of things, telling Tim Healey of Newsday that he’s expecting to miss just a couple of days and take the ball against the Nationals this weekend.

In a bit of good news, Carrasco seems to be working his way back as well. The Double-A Binghamton Rumble Ponies announced that the veteran will be making a rehab start for them tonight as he tries to get back to the major league team. He was initially planned to start his rehab on the weekend but those plans were pushed back when he fell ill. It seems he’s recovered and the train is back on the tracks. He had a 3.97 ERA for the Mets last year but struggled to an 8.56 mark this year before the bone spur put him on the shelf.

If the Mets get a bit of luck, both Scherzer and Carrasco will be healthy and pitching well soon, which will likely nudge out Peterson and then one of Lucchesi or Megill. The former has a 4.43 ERA through four starts while the latter is at 4.33 in seven outings. Peterson hasn’t been able to fare well in his time this year, currently sporting a 7.34 ERA in his six starts.

Max Scherzer Given 10-Game Suspension; Will Not Appeal

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7:53pm: In a surprising twist, Scherzer informed reporters this evening he’s elected not to appeal after all (video provided by SNY). The right-hander said he’d initially believed an appeal would be heard by a neutral arbitrator but later was informed it would go in front of an MLB official. (Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic specifies that special assistant to the commissioner John McHale would have heard the appeal.) As a result, Scherzer conceded he wouldn’t win and has elected not to pursue it.

He’ll begin serving his ban tonight and is ineligible to return until May 1. Because Scherzer was suspended for an on-field rules violation, the Mets are not permitted to replace him on the active roster. They’ll roll with 25 players for the remainder of the month.

6:56pm: Major League Baseball announced Thursday evening that Mets star Max Scherzer has been suspended for ten games for “violating the prohibitions on foreign substances.” He was also fined an undisclosed amount, which Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports at $10K (Twitter link).

Foreign substance ejections come with an automatic ten-game suspension, so this has seemed likely since Scherzer was thrown out of yesterday’s start against the Dodgers. Scherzer stated after yesterday’s game that he’d appeal any suspension. Heyman tweets this evening that he plans to do so. Scherzer has been adamant he was only using legally-permissible rosin, swearing on the life of his children in the process. Umpires Phil Cuzzi and Dan Bellino, however, explained after the game that Scherzer’s hand was stickier than any other they had inspected previously.

Bellino opined that Scherzer had used “something likely more than rosin” based on its stickiness. MLB’s announcement reflected a similar sentiment. “Based on the umpires’ training to detect rosin on a pitcher’s hands, they concluded that the level of stickiness during the fourth inning check was so extreme that it was inconsistent with the use of rosin and/or sweat alone,” the league wrote. MLB’s press release says umpires “appropriately ejected Mr. Scherzer from the game” at that point.

While the league apparently believes Scherzer applied an illicit substance other than rosin, its press release also points to another potential justification for the ejection/suspension. MLB points out that it sent a memo to clubs during Spring Training reminding that “when used excessively or otherwise misapplied (i.e., to gloves or other parts of the uniform), rosin may be determined by the umpires to be a prohibited foreign substance, the use of which may subject a player to ejection and discipline.” Whether because of the umpiring crew’s determination Scherzer had used a non-rosin sticky substance or the possibility the three-time Cy Young winner applied too much of the otherwise permissible rosin, the league imposed discipline.

It was reported back in June 2021 the league was planning to crack down on the use of “sticky stuff” that pitchers use to improve their grip on the baseball but also to increase spin rates. Two players were suspended not too long after that, with Héctor Santiago of the Mariners getting hit later that same month, followed by Caleb Smith of the Diamondbacks in August. No suspensions were handed out last year, but it was reported in February the league was planning to further crack down this year.

Scherzer declined comment when speaking with Mets’ reporters this evening. He said only that his camp is “working on it” in reference to fighting the ban (relayed by Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). There’s sure to be more clarity on the appeals process over the next few days.

If Scherzer indeed has to sit out for a week and a half, it’ll deal another hit to a rotation already down Justin Verlander, José Quintana and Carlos Carrasco to injury. That has pushed David Peterson and Tylor Megill into the starting five alongside Kodai Senga and previously necessitated a spot start from José Butto.

Skipper Buck Showalter told reporters tonight that left-hander  Joey Lucchesi will be recalled from Triple-A Syracuse to start tomorrow’s game against the Giants (via Mike Puma of the New York Post). It’ll represent Lucceshi’s first MLB action in nearly two years. He lost all of last season to Tommy John surgery.

2023-24 Player Option/Opt-Out Update: April Edition

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Not long ago, any given year in Major League Baseball might have seen a handful of players have player options to decide upon at the end of a season. Opt-out clauses have slowly worked their way into normalcy among contract negotiations, however, and what was once a perk typically reserved for star players has become more commonly used as a means of either sealing a deal with mid-range free agents or in many instances, gaming the luxury tax. Player options are considered guaranteed money, after all, so it’s become common for clubs on the precipice of luxury penalization to negotiate complex player options that tamp down a contract’s average annual value even though they’re unlikely to ever be exercised.

For the purposes of this look around the league, there’s little sense in separating opt-outs from player options. The two are effectively the same, though “opt-out” typically refers to an out clause where there are multiple years remaining on the contract and “player option” generally refers to an individual decision on the forthcoming season. Both are considered guaranteed money for luxury purposes, and both ultimately come down to the player’s preference, risk tolerance, etc.

At their core, opt-out provisions aren’t particularly different from the much longer-accepted club options that teams have negotiated for years. Teams guarantee a certain number of dollars over a certain number of years, and if the player continues performing at a high enough level, they’ll exercise a club option that’s typically locked in at a below-market price. If not, the player will be bought out and sent back to free agency. Player options and opt-outs are merely the inverse; the player/agent negotiate a certain length and annual value but reserve the right to opt back into the market if the player continues to perform at a high level. It’s two sides of the same coin.

There are more players with the opportunity to opt out of their contract this offseason, by way of a one-year player option or a multi-year opt-out, than ever before. As such, we’ll be keeping tabs on these situations throughout the season. Short of a major injury, performance this early in the season isn’t likely to have a major impact on a player’s likelihood of opting out or forgoing that right, but it’s worth listing out which players will have the opportunity, what their contracts look like, and at least taking an early glance at how they’re performing.

Note: All stats through play on Tuesday.

Position Players

  • Tucker Barnhart, C, Cubs ($3.25MM player option): Barnhart’s deal was announced as a two-year, $6.5MM contract, though he also obtained the right to opt out after 2023, effectively rendering 2024 a player option. He’s 5-for-16 with a walk and four strikeouts through just 17 plate appearances as the backup to Yan Gomes. Barnhart got this guarantee on the heels of a dismal .221/.287/.267 showing with the Tigers in 2022, so with even a decent season he’ll have reason to opt out and try his luck again amid a thin group of free-agent catchers.
  • Josh Bell, 1B/DH, Guardians ($16.5MM player option): Bell limped to the finish line with the Padres after being traded over from the Nationals alongside Juan Soto in last summer’s blockbuster, and he hasn’t yet found his footing in 76 plate appearances with the Guardians. It’s a small sample, but Bell’s .203/.316/.344 slash looks quite similar to the .192/.316/.271 he mustered with San Diego in 2022. Bell hit 37 homers in 2019 and 27 in 2021, but he hits the ball on the ground far too often for someone with his power and lack of speed. Only one qualified hitter in MLB (Masataka Yoshida) has a higher ground-ball rate than Bell’s staggering 66.7% mark.
  • Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Cubs ($7MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): Like Bell, Mancini saw his offensive production crater following a deadline trade (to the Astros) last summer and has not yet recovered in a new setting. Through 60 plate appearances, he’s hitting just .196/.220/.250. While his contract is a two-year, $14MM deal, Mancini can opt out if he reaches 350 plate appearances (i.e., the second year becomes a player option). He isn’t hitting yet, but Mancini is playing regularly and appears to be trending toward earning that right.
  • Javier Baez, SS, Tigers (can opt out of remaining four years, $98MM): After turning in a tepid .238/.278/.393 batting line in 590 plate appearances during his first season as a Tiger, Baez would need quite the season to walk away from this kind of cash. So far, he’s hitting .193/.254/.246 in 64 trips to the plate, however. When Baez gets hot, he can go on hot streaks for the ages, but he certainly doesn’t look like he’ll be opting out at season’s end.
  • Justin Turner, 3B/DH, Red Sox ($13.4MM player option): Turner hasn’t found his power yet in Boston, but he’s out to a .277/.385/.385 start with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. His $13.4MM player option comes with a hefty $6.7MM buyout. He’ll turn 39 in November, but as long as he hits reasonably well, he should have more earning power than that $6.7MM net decision.
  • Jorge Soler, OF/DH, Marlins ($9MM player option): Soler’s three-year, $36MM deal in Miami pays him $12MM in 2022, $15MM in 2023 and $9MM in 2024, but he had the right to opt out after each season of the deal. He hit just .207/.295/.400 with 13 homers in 306 plate appearances last year, so there was no way he was taking the first opt-out. He’s already clubbed five dingers in 62 plate appearances in 2023. His .263/.323/.649 slash translates to a 155 wRC+, and his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are through the roof, so his .256 average on balls in play should at least hold steady. Soler is an extremely streaky hitter, so time will tell how much of this early heater he can sustain, but there’s plenty to like about his start, including a reduced strikeout rate.
  • Michael Conforto, OF, Giants ($18MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): As with Mancini, Conforto is on a two-year deal but gains the right to opt out after one year if he reaches 350 plate appearances. You can call it an opt-out or a player option, but it’s the same mechanism; if Conforto is healthy, he’ll likely get the right to opt out. So far, he’s hitting .220/.373/.439 with a trio of homers in 51 trips to the plate. Conforto has walked nine times in those 51 plate appearances (17.6%), and his chase rate is actually down, so he still has good knowledge of the zone. However, a year-long layoff due to shoulder surgery is perhaps making itself known with a 74.5% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone, as that’s nearly 10 percentage points below his career mark of 84%. Unsurprisingly, Conforto’s 31.4% strikeout rate is a career worst. Some rust was inevitable, though, and the plate discipline and hard contact when he has made contact (94.4 mph exit velo, 52.5% hard-hit rate) are encouraging.
  • Matt Carpenter, 1B/DH, Padres ($5.5MM player option): Carpenter’s stunning return with the Yankees last year was one of the best stories of the summer, but he’s out to a sluggish .152/.317/.273 start with the Padres. He’s chasing off the plate at a 30.3% clip after doing so at a 20.7% rate last summer, and his contact rate on swings off the plate has plummeted from 62.5% to 36.4%. It’s a small sample and there’s time to turn things around, of course, but he’s had a tough start.

Pitchers

  • Andrew Heaney, LHP, Dodgers ($13MM player option): Heaney’s first Rangers start was one to forget (seven earned runs), but his second start was dominant, as he tied an AL record by fanning nine consecutive hitters. If Heaney tops 150 innings and doesn’t finish the year with an injury that’d likely keep him out for the first 60-plus innings of the 2024 season, the value of that player option jumps to $20MM. He hasn’t reached 150 innings since 2018.
  • Seth Lugo, RHP, Padres ($7.5MM player option): Lugo’s return to the rotation has been solid. He’s posted a 2.70 ERA through 16 2/3 frames with strikeout and walk ratios that look similar to his numbers out of the bullpen (24.3% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate). It’s anyone’s guess how many innings Lugo will tally after throwing just 228 innings combined from 2019-22, when he was primarily a reliever, but a solid run out of the rotation will position him to turn down that player option in search of a multi-year deal in free agency.
  • Sean Manaea, LHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): The early ERA isn’t much to look at (4.76 in 11 1/3 innings), but the Giants have Manaea averaging 94.7 mph on his four-seamer. That’s a career-high by a wide margin, as he sat 91.7 mph on a now-scrapped sinker in 2021-22 and 91.1 mph on his four-seamer in 2017-20. Any major velocity gain of this nature is worth keeping an eye on.
  • Nick Martinez, RHP, Padres (team has two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Martinez has two-year, $16MM player option): Martinez’s strikeout rate, walk rate, home-run rate and velocity have all gone the wrong direction through his first three starts. It’s just 17 2/3 innings, so it could be rendered a footnote if he rebounds and the Padres pick up their hefty option on the righty. Still, it’s not the start he or the Padres wanted.
  • Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Tigers (can opt out remaining three years, $49MM): E-Rod hasn’t missed bats anywhere near his Boston levels since signing with the Tigers. The lefty still showed good command both in 2022 and so far in 2023, but his 8.7% swinging-strike rate and 20.4% strikeout rate are well shy of the respective 11.6% and 26% marks he posted in his final four years with the Red Sox. Rodriguez’s velocity in 2023 is back up after a slight dip in 2022, but if he can’t get back to missing bats at his prior levels it’ll be an easy call for him to forego that opt-out provision.
  • Max Scherzer, RHP, Mets ($43.333MM player option): Scherzer hasn’t gotten out to his best start, but he posted a 2.29 ERA with gaudy strikeout and walk rates (30.6% and 4.2%) in 145 1/3 frames with the Mets in 2022. He was at the center of controversy after being ejected from today’s start after failing a foreign substance check, though that’s not likely to have any effect on his opt-out decision. Scherzer has already suggested that his opt-out was negotiated in part to ensure that he’d have an opportunity to look elsewhere if the Mets didn’t remain fully committed to winning. That hasn’t been the case under owner Steve Cohen, who’s currently financing the largest payroll and luxury-tax bill in MLB history.
  • Ross Stripling, RHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): Stripling has been ambushed for 10 runs in his first 12 1/3 innings of work and had been set to operate primarily out of the bullpen before the injury to Alex Wood. It’s not a great start considering the weighty $25MM guarantee on his deal, but he has time to turn things around. A stunning six of the 13 fly-balls Stripling has yielded in 2023 have cleared the fence for a home run, and that rate will surely stabilize over a larger sample. Still, if he’s relegated to long-relief duty for too long, it’ll become difficult for him to even consider his opt-out.
  • Marcus Stroman, RHP, Cubs ($21MM player option): Stroman took a rather atypical contract structure for a 31-year-old free agent, inking a three-year guarantee at a premium annual value with an opt-out after year two. It’s more common to see pitchers that age push for the longest deal possible, but it might work out in Stroman’s favor. He’ll bank $50MM through the contract’s first two seasons, and after a nice 2022 season (3.50 ERA, 3.74 SIERA in 138 2/3 innings), he’s come roaring out of the gates with a 0.75 ERA and vastly improved 26.9% strikeout rate through his first 24 frames. Stroman’s walk rate is also up, and it’s all a small sample for now anyway, but it’s a promising start all the same. He’ll turn 33 in 2024, and if he continues anywhere near the pace he’s set since 2019 (3.15  ERA in 520 innings), he should have no problem topping that $21MM in free agency. He’ll also be ineligible for a qualifying offer, having already received one earlier in his career.
  • Michael Wacha, RHP, Padres (two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Wacha has $6.5MM player option and $6MM player options in 2025-26): Wacha’s four-year, $26MM deal was effectively just the Padres manipulating the luxury tax by meeting Wacha’s price tag on a multi-year deal but spreading out the term to tamp down the AAV. Wacha’s total guarantee is the type of money one might’ve expected him to land over a two- or perhaps three-year term. By spreading it to four, the Padres could end up avoiding the third luxury-tax bracket. Wacha has a 6.06 ERA through three starts and posted an ERA of 4.76 or worse each season from 2019-21. If he can wind up replicating his strong 2022 results, the Padres might consider picking up their end of the option, but the likelier scenario is that they decline, leaving Wacha with a remaining three years and $19MM, but opt-outs after each season.
  • Chad Green, RHP, Blue Jays (three-year, $27MM club option; if declined, Green has $6.25MM player option; if both decline, team has two-year, $21MM option): Green may have the most convoluted contract of the entire free-agent class. That’s reflective both of his considerable talent and the broad range of outcomes as he works back from last May’s Tommy John surgery. We won’t know have an inkling of how this’ll play out until at least the summer, as Green needs to finish off his rehab. If he can return to peak form (1.83 ERA, 40.7% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate) for three or so months down the stretch, perhaps the Jays would actually consider the three-year, $27MM option. But that’s premium setup man money, and Green will be coming back from a year-long absence with a major surgery on his recent resume. He’ll have a $6.25MM player option if that three-year team option is declined, and that seems far more plausible. The two-year, $21MM option if both parties decline their first options feels only slightly more viable than the Jays’ original 3/27 decision.

Scherzer, Boras, Umpires Discuss Foreign Substance Ejection

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The sticky stuff crackdown returned to the forefront of MLB attention this afternoon. Mets ace Max Scherzer was ejected after three innings in today’s contest against the Dodgers. An agitated Scherzer was thrown out by crew chief Phil Cuzzi after an extended conversation and inspection of his hands (video provided by Fox Sports MLB).

Failed foreign substance checks come with an automatic 10-game suspension. MLB hasn’t officially levied any discipline to this point, though it’s widely expected the eight-time All-Star will be hit with a suspension. Scherzer told reporters after the game he planned to appeal if suspended (via Bob Nightengale of USA Today).

Scherzer proclaimed his innocence, saying umpires had only detected a combination of sweat and permissible rosin (relayed by Steve Gelbs of SNY). “I said I swear on my kids’ life I’m not using anything else. This is sweat and rosin, sweat and rosin. I keep saying it over and over.” Scherzer added that he anticipated a substance check before the fourth inning, saying he’d “have to be an absolute idiot” to apply anything else.

The three-time Cy Young winner said his hand had gotten “clumpy” with rosin during the second inning. That’s apparently not atypical, as Cuzzi told the pitcher to wash his hand. Scherzer was adamant he washed it with alcohol and changed his glove before reapplying rosin headed into the fourth.

Scherzer’s agent Scott Boras predictably came to his defense. In a statement to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (on Twitter), Boras attacked what he perceived as umpire subjectivity. “MLB standards and rules enforcement should mandate and require an objective verifiable standard,” Boras said. “If you want to attack the integrity of the competition, you need clear precise standards (or) else you damage the game and its players. The Cuzzi on field spectrometer is not the answer. MLB needs to employ available scientific methods (not subjective) to create verifiable certainly of its rules.”

Cuzzi and home plate umpire Dan Bellino defended their actions after the game. “This was the stickiest [a hand] has been since I’ve been inspecting hands, which goes back three seasons,” Bellino said (via Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times). “It was so sticky that when we touched his hand, our fingers were sticking to his hand.” He went on to call it “far more than we have ever seen before on a pitcher in live action” and noted that umpires are aware of the consequences for pitchers ejected for foreign substances, implying they don’t take lightly the expected suspension in making that decision (transcribed by Mike Puma of the New York Post).

Cuzzi made a similar argument, saying Scherzer’s hand was “far stickier than anything that we felt certainly today and anything this year. And so in that case, we felt as though he had two chances to clean it up and he didn’t” (relayed by Tim Healey of Newsday). Bellino called it “something likely more than rosin” in his judgment (thread via Jesse Rogers of ESPN). “We know what the rosin typically feels like on a pitcher’s hand because everyone is using the same rosin bag,” he added. Rogers notes that while rosin itself is not a banned substance, it can be impermissible if used excessively or misapplied.

Drawing that line presents a judgment call for an umpiring crew. Scherzer’s ejection was the first for a failed substance check since the end of the 2021 campaign. Yankees righty Domingo Germán had a close call during a start against the Twins last week, when umpires twice warned him for using too much rosin (link via Dan Hayes of the Athletic). Germán was allowed to stay in the game after washing the rosin to the umpiring crew’s satisfaction. That displeased Twins manager Rocco Baldelli, who was ejected for arguing against Germán being allowed to continue. Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts said that Los Angeles did not request any of the glove inspections in Scherzer’s case (via Rowan Kavner of Fox Sports).

It’s only the beginning of what figures to be a notable saga if/when MLB levies a suspension. In suspensions for violations of on-field rules, clubs are required to play a man short while the ban is being served. The Mets already have three starters — Justin Verlander, José Quintana and Carlos Carrasco — on the injured list.

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