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Rich Hill Plans To Pitch In 2023

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Red Sox lefty Rich Hill indicated after yesterday’s start that he plans to continue pitching in 2023, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. Hill, a Boston native, indicated that his preference for his age-43 season next year is a return to the Red Sox, for whom he’s pitched to a 4.41 ERA across 118 1/3 innings this year. Hill suggested he would entertain the idea of signing only for half of the season, joining a club partway through the 2023 campaign, noting that he’d discuss specific plans with his family this winter.

With the Red Sox also set to lose right-handers Nathan Eovaldi and Michael Wacha to free agency this offseason, it seems likely that the Red Sox would have interest in a reunion. With youngsters Josh Winckowski and Kutter Crawford struggling to ERAs over 5.00 during their stints in the rotation this season, and team ace Chris Sale having pitched just 48 1/3 innings since the end of the 2019 season, it would appear Nick Pivetta is the only steady presence in the Red Sox rotation entering 2023 at the moment.

That being said, top prospect Brayan Bello has also pitched solidly in 10 starts in the majors this year, so he is likely to compete for an opening day rotation spot as well. Garrett Whitlock has pitched well in 78 1/3 innings this season, but the Red Sox seem to prefer him in a swing role between the bullpen and the rotation; of his 31 games played this season, only nine of them were starts, and he pitched beyond the fourth inning just four times. James Paxton could pick up his player option for 2023, but after missing the entire 2022 season and pitching just 1 1/3 innings in 2021, he can hardly be counted on for significant innings next year.

Even if a reunion between Hill and the Red Sox doesn’t work out, Hill should find himself with plenty of suitors this offseason. While he has only pitched to an ERA+ of 96, 4% below league average, Hill’s 3.82 FIP this year indicates that he may have been somewhat unlucky to end up with the results he has this season. He has stranded just 67.9% of baserunners this season, a significant dip from his career norms, and his BABIP has risen to .310 this year, a clip much higher than his career mark of .279.

On the other hand, Hill has seen his strikeout rate decline this season, with his 20.4% strikeout rate failing to measure up to his career 24.5% mark, or even the 22.7% he achieved in 2021. Whether Hill can expect positive regression next year or not, his numbers suggest he can still provide steady, back of the rotation production. Furthermore, despite being the oldest pitcher in MLB, Hill has largely managed to stay healthy in recent years, with a one month stint on the injured list for a sprained knee this July being his only injury since the start of the 2021 season.

Rich Hill Discusses Possible 2023 Plans

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Rich Hill is currently amidst his 18th big league season, with the long-tenured southpaw set to reach his 43rd birthday before next Opening Day. Among active players, only Albert Pujols — who has already announced 2022 as his final season — is older than the Red Sox’s hurler. Hill, however, tells Rob Bradford of WEEI he feels physically able to continue his playing career beyond this year. He nevertheless also expressed a desire to spend more time with his wife and son, pointing to the amount of time players spend away from their families over the course of a 162-game schedule.

With that in mind, Hill tells Bradford he could consider an atypical approach to next season — sitting out the first few months with an eye towards joining a contender midseason. Hill, who will be a free agent again at the end of this year, suggested he could stay in shape and continue to throw independently for the first few months of next season before pursuing an opportunity with a club around July. “If we look at the trade deadline, even for this year, everybody needs more pitching,” the pitcher noted. “Whether that be out of the bullpen and/or starting, it’s that opportunity to be able to help a team that’s going to be able to go into the postseason and make some things happen, especially with the experience I have in the postseason.”

To be clear, Hill didn’t definitively state he was committed to the half-season approach. He expressed confidence in his ability to hold up physically if he went the traditional route and signed with a team over the offseason and played a full schedule. It seems he’ll wait until the offseason for he and his family to officially settle upon their plans, but Hill pointed to some benefits that could be associated with a hypothetical half-season approach. Waiting until midseason would give him and his representatives at ACES a clearer picture of the standings to target a playoff contender. He also indicated a preemptive rest period could have performance benefits for the stretch run.

“You’ll be 43, but there’s obviously some more to give inside, where you can take those extra couple months to rejuvenate and put the work in and the time in the gym. It could be beneficial for that second half,” he opined. “You’re trying to come back and be as productive and fresh as possible. … I’m not saying I wouldn’t be for an entire season. It just might not be ideal for my family. (It might be better) to spend half the year with my son and my wife, where we can enjoy each other, and start to move in that direction.”

Hill, who has suited up for a whopping 11 teams in his big league career, signed a $5MM guarantee to return for a third MLB stint with the Red Sox last December. He lost most of July to a left knee sprain but has been a useful back-of-the-rotation contributor when healthy. Hill has given the Sox 82 2/3 innings of 4.68 ERA ball. While his 18% strikeout rate and 8.4% swinging strike percentage are each below-average, he remains a capable strike-thrower and has held left-handed opponents to a meager .220/.278/.320 line in 54 plate appearances on the year.

Between that production and Hill’s wealth of major league experience, he should still find interest from teams during the upcoming offseason. Whether he elects to pursue a job during the winter or holds off until the middle of next season remains to be seen, but his comments to Bradford indicate he’s eyeing a 19th MLB campaign in some capacity.

Red Sox Notes: Paxton, Wacha, Houck, Sale

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Red Sox lefty James Paxton, who underwent Tommy John surgery last year, seems to finally be healthy enough to start ramping things up. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that the southpaw recently faced lived hitters and is expected to throw in a simulated game this Friday. The next step after that will be for him to start a rehab assignment, which would be followed by a return to the big league club.

“He’s in such a good spot now that it’s not about the arm,” manager Alex Cora said about Paxton. “It’s about the pitch mix, the breaking ball, all that. When those guys start talking about that, you know they’re over the hump.”

Paxton’s form down the stretch will be very significant both for him and the club, regardless of where they are in the standings. Boston signed him to a unique contract over the offseason, knowing that he was rehabbing from TJS and unlikely to contribute over a full season. Paxton is making a $6MM salary this year and then the club will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $13MM options for 2023-2024 at the end of the season. If the team declines to pick up what is effectively a two-year, $26MM deal, Paxton can decide to trigger a $4MM player option for 2023 or decline it and return to free agency. Those decisions will surely depend upon what Paxton shows in the coming weeks.

The Red Sox could use some contributions from Paxton, both in this season and in the future, given the tumult of their rotation. Just about every starter in Boston’s rotation has either landed on the IL or been optioned to the minors at some point, with Nick Pivetta being the only constant. Michael Wacha has only made 13 starts this year due to a pair of IL stints, one for an intercostal strain and the other for shoulder inflammation. However, Cotillo reports that he threw 4 1/3 innings in a rehab start last night and should return to the big league club for his next outing. That should give the club a boost, as they look to finish strong in the AL Wild Card race. They are currently five games behind the Rays for the last spot.

Looking farther into the future, each of Wacha, Nathan Eovaldi and Rich Hill are slated to reach free agency this offseason, which is part of the reason why those Paxton options might seem alluring, even if he only returns for a brief period of time. The 2023 Boston rotation might also take a hit from the uncertainty surrounding Chris Sale. The lefty was once one of the most dominant arms in the game but has hardly pitched in recent years due to a cavalcade of injuries. Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2020 and limited him to nine starts last year. He began this year on the IL due to a stress fracture in rib cage, returning to throw one five-inning start before his second start was cut short after less than an inning when a comebacker broke his finger. While on the IL, he managed to get hurt again, falling off a bicycle near his home and breaking his wrist, eliminating any hopes of his return this year.

Due to all that, Sale will go into the offseason having thrown just 48 1/3 total innings over the past three seasons, which raises questions about how much the Red Sox can rely on him for the rotation next year. “We obviously need to think through what that means as far as planning out a full season with him not having carried very much of a workload the last few years,” chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom tells Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic. “If we want to play 162-plus we have to build our team to have a lot of starting pitching depth,” he added. With Hill, Wacha and Eovaldi headed to the open market and Sale and Paxton unknown wild cards at this point, there’s plenty of uncertainty hanging over Boston’s future rotation.

Turning back to the present season, the Sox placed reliever Tanner Houck on the 15-day injured list with back inflammation yesterday, Cotillo relays, which will deliver a hit to the bullpen. Houck has a 3.15 ERA on the year, with a 22.7% strikeout rate, 8.9% walk rate and 50.9% ground ball rate. That’s included many high-leverage spots, as Houck as eight saves and one hold on the year. He’ll join Tyler Danish, Matt Strahm and Josh Taylor among Boston relievers currently on the injured list. The bullpen is so banged up that Cora told reporters, including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, that Hill might see some action out of the ’pen, despite having just started yesterday’s game.

Red Sox Listening On Nathan Eovaldi, Rich Hill

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4:35PM: The Cardinals, Phillies, and Twins are all interested in Hill, as per WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford.

1:24PM: Most of the talk regarding the Red Sox in recent days has centered on designated hitter J.D. Martinez and the since-traded Christian Vazquez, but Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports that the Sox are open to dealing right-hander Nathan Eovaldi, though they’re not planning to simply take the best offer presented for him. Boston is, after all, still on the periphery of the Wild Card race — and Eovaldi represents a potential qualifying offer candidate. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic adds that lefty Rich Hill is “almost certainly in play” as well.

Eovaldi stands as one of the higher-profile names on the rental market. However, he’s a fairly pricey option, earning $17MM this season (with just over $6MM of that sum yet to be paid out), and has had some struggles since a June trip to the injured list. A back injury sidelined Eovaldi for a month, from June 12 through July 15, and the right-hander was torched for 16 earned runs in his first three starts upon returning — a total of just 13 innings.

Eovaldi held a potent Astros lineup scoreless through 6 1/3 frames last night, which may ease some concerns, but the right-hander’s fastball velocity has been down since sustaining that back injury. After averaging 96.9 mph on his heater from Opening Day through June 3, Eovaldi has an average of 94.5 mph on the pitch in his past five appearances — including a 94.3 mph average last night.

It bears emphasizing that even with the recent struggles, Eovaldi is sporting a respectable 4.11 ERA with a roughly average 23.1% strikeout rate, a brilliant 4.3% walk rate and an above-average 47.8% grounder rate. Interested parties will surely place a premium, to some extent, on the right-hander’s considerable postseason resume as well. Eovaldi was an absolute juggernaut in the 2018 playoffs, propelling the Red Sox to a World Series victory with 22 1/3 innings of 1.61 ERA ball. He stumbled in the 2021 ALCS against the Astros, but Eovaldi nonetheless has a career 3.14 ERA and 41-to-8 K/BB ratio in 43 postseason frames.

As for the veteran Hill, he’s playing on a one-year, $5MM deal with some incentives that could reasonably boost the contract by another $500K to $1MM. Hill’s incentives package kicks in at 110 innings pitched, and he’s currently at 70 2/3 frames on the year. In that time, he’s pitched to a 4.20 ERA with a 19.5% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate. He’s averaging under five innings per start, so it’s unlikely he reaches the 150- and 160-innings thresholds at which his most lucrative bonuses are slated to kick in, but he stands a decent chance of upping that salary a bit if he can remain healthy.

Red Sox Reportedly Listening To Offers For J.D. Martinez

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As the Red Sox continue to flounder through the month of July, there are increasing levels of speculation that Boston could sell off some short-term veterans — even if they continue to opportunistically look to add longer-term pieces who’ll help in 2023 and beyond. To that end, ESPN’s Buster Olney said on today’s Baseball Tonight podcast that designated hitter J.D. Martinez “is out in the trade market.” Boston was recently swept by the division-rival Blue Jays, dropping them to 17 games back in the AL East and three back in the Wild Card chase.

The 34-year-old Martinez (35 next month) would immediately become one of the best bets on the market if the Sox indeed do intend to trade him within the next week. Fresh off his fifth career All-Star appearance, Martinez remains a standout bat, hitting .302/.368/.481 with nine homers on the season. He may not be the 45-homer threat he was at his 2017-18 peak, but Martinez’s 8.7% walk rate and 23.6% strikeout rate are both right in line with his career levels, and he’s been 36% better than league-average at the plate by measure of wRC+.

Martinez is in the final season of a frontloaded five-year, $110MM contract that calls for a $19.375MM salary for the current season. He’s still owed about $7.55MM of that salary between now and season’s end, as of this writing, but for a hitter of his caliber it’s a generally reasonable rate of pay.

The extent to which the Red Sox are attempting to move Martinez isn’t yet known. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom typically takes an open-minded approach to the trade deadline and offseason alike, so it’s certainly feasible that he’s simply entertaining offers from other clubs. At the same time, if the Sox have determined that they don’t want to make a qualifying offer to Martinez at what will likely be a comparable rate to his current salary, they could more aggressively contact other clubs and try to initiate negotiations themselves.

Making Martinez available would obviously bring about further questions regarding the Sox’ roster. If they’re willing to move Martinez, it stands to reason that other clubs would inquire about the team’s other slate of pending free agents, at the very least. Nathan Eovaldi would quickly become the top name on the rental market for starting pitchers, and the Sox also have catcher Christian Vazquez, starters Michael Wacha and Rich Hill, utilityman Enrique Hernandez and reliever Matt Strahm set to reach free agency this winter.

Wacha, Hill, Strahm and Hernandez are all on the injured list at the moment, but all four are progressing toward returns (Twitter link via MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo). Hill is slated for a rehab assignment beginning tomorrow, while Wacha recently threw a simulated game. Strahm is only on the IL due to a wrist contusion (the All-Star break likely contributed to the factor to place him on the IL at all). Hernandez will be swinging a bat by the end of the week.

Of course, those players may not be considered quite as “easy” to replace as Martinez. While there’s no Martinez-level bat readily available to take his place, the Sox do have top prospect Triston Casas in Triple-A. Bobby Dalbec is playing third base right now with Rafael Devers on the injured list but could get a look at DH — or the Sox could simply use the designated hitter slot as a means of rotation their regulars and keeping them fresh down the stretch.

While a brief rental of a designated hitter might not generally be expected to produce a significant return, it at least bears mentioning that the Twins were able to pry minor league right-handers Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman from the Rays in last summer’s Nelson Cruz trade. Ryan, then an upper-level starter who’d recently pitched for Team USA in the Olympics, quickly found his way to the big leagues and has been Minnesota’s best starter since last September’s debut. That’ll likely be seen as the gold standard for rental trades of this nature for some time, however, and it’s not necessarily reasonable to expect the Red Sox — or any team — to pull off a return of that quality in exchange for a rental bat.

Obviously any talk of the Red Sox trading rental players will bring about speculation regarding shortstop Xander Bogaerts, who can and almost certainly will opt out of the final three years and $60MM remaining on his contract at season’s end. Bogaerts, however, has full no-trade protection under that contract. Paired with the opt-out provision on the deal, that makes a trade involving him a difficult (albeit not impossible) one to envision. ESPN’s Jeff Passan noted this morning that other teams expect Bogaerts to remain put even if Boston sells off other short-term pieces.

Red Sox Place Rich Hill On 15-Day Injured List

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TODAY: Hill’s recovery timeline is roughly 2-4 weeks, according to The Boston Globe’s Pete Abraham (Twitter link).  An MRI did reveal “some tearing” in Hill’s ligament.

JULY 2: The Red Sox have placed Rich Hill on the 15-day injured list, as the left-hander is battling a left knee sprain.  Right-hander Phillips Valdez was called up from Triple-A to take Hill’s spot on the active roster.

Hill suffered the injury in the fifth inning of yesterday’s start against the Cubs, as he tried to tough it out through two more batters but eventually left the game.  Hill told reporters (including WEEI’s Rob Bradford) that he was waiting for the results of an MRI, but he compared the injury to the MCL problem that sidelined him for a month during the 2019 season.

The 42-year-old Hill has continued to post solid results in his 18th Major League season, with a 4.20 ERA/4.35 SIERA over 70 2/3 innings.  While his Statcast numbers and advanced metrics (including a 19.5% strikeout rate) aren’t anything to write home about, Hill has still been a reliable presence within a Boston rotation that has been lacking in stability.

At the moment, that rotation is down to just three pitchers, as the Sox have been hit by injuries.  Hill joins Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Sale (who has yet to pitch in 2022) and Garrett Whitlock on the IL, leaving Michael Wacha, Nick Pivetta, and Josh Winckowski as the only pitchers remaining in the starting five.  Connor Seabold is at Triple-A and figures to be recalled to make at least one spot start.

Among the injured names, Eovaldi threw a 35-pitch bullpen session today, though it isn’t yet known if the righty may need a rehab start.  Eovaldi has been on the IL since June 9 due to lower back inflammation.  Sale has another rehab outing slated for Wednesday, and Red Sox manager Alex Cora told MLB.com’s Ian Browne that Sale could potentially in line to make his 2022 season debut on July 11 when the Sox play the Rays.

As for Whitlock, he has been out since June 10 due to hip inflammation.  The righty has a bullpen session today and will have to make a rehab outing, but when he does return, Cora told Bradford and company that Whitlock will “pretty much likely” return to his old bullpen role, rather than as a starting pitcher.  Whitlock had a 4.15 ERA over 39 innings and nine starts this season, but with a theoretical surplus of starters when everyone is healthy, the Red Sox figure Whitlock can best help the team as a multi-inning reliever — Whitlock dominated batters in such a role in 2021.

Red Sox Recall Kutter Crawford, Option Connor Seabold

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The Red Sox swapped a pair of right-handers between Boston and Triple-A Worcester this morning, the team announced, optioning Connor Seabold and recalling Kutter Crawford. Seabold had made his third big-league start yesterday against the Cubs, tossing four innings of one-run ball.

The move gives manager Alex Cora an extra arm while his team deals with a spate of injuries in rotation: in addition to the long-term absences of Chris Sale and James Paxton, Rich Hill, Nathan Eovaldi, and Garrett Whitlock are all on the 15-day IL while Michael Wacha is, per Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic, dealing with a dead arm that may require an IL stint. Because optioned players are allowed to return at any time if replacing a player headed to the IL, Seabold could return to start late in the week should Wacha — who last pitched on June 28th — need more time.

While Cora might have to make some uncomfortable decisions in the short term, there could be help on the way. While neither Whitlock nor Eovaldi is yet close to returning, Sale, who’s yet to pitch this season due to a stress fracture in his ribcage (and who’s covered only 42 2/3 innings since 2019, all of them last year), has already made one rehab start and is scheduled for another on Wednesday, and consensus top 100 prospect Brayan Bello appears likely to make his big-league debut the same day after Cora told reporters (including McCaffrey) that he’s probably the best option currently pitching in Worcester.

After hitting a bit of a rough patch in his first taste of Double-A last year, the 23-year-old Bello has tossed 85 innings 2.33 ERA ball across 15 appearances (14 starts) between Double-A Portland and Triple-A Worcester. His excellent ERA is backed up by a stellar strikeout rate (33.7%), though his walk rate (9.8%) leaves a bit to be desired.

Crawford, who’s struggled while shuttling between both Boston and Worcester and bullpen and rotation this year, could also be an option to start, though he likely won’t be Cora’s first choice. In 21 2/3 career big-league innings, he’s logged an unsightly 7.89 ERA (5.66 FIP). He has consistently missed bats at every level in the minors, however, and given the tattered state of the Boston pitching staff, he may well get an extended opportunity to do so in the bigs.

Red Sox Activate Rich Hill, Designate Jaylin Davis

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The Red Sox have activated Rich Hill from the COVID-related injury list, and the veteran southpaw is set to start tonight’s game against the Rangers.  Righty Kutter Crawford was optioned to Triple-A after yesterday’s game, creating space for Hill on the active roster.  In another move, the Sox also announced that outfielder Jaylin Davis has been designated for assignment.

Hill returns after a little over a week on the COVID-IL, as the lefty tested positive for the coronavirus.  Now in his age-42 season and in his fourth different stint with the Red Sox, Hill is still effective, posting a 2.86 ERA over his first five starts and 22 innings of the season.

With Michael Wacha still on the regular injured list due to left intercostal irritation, Hill’s return will bring one full-time starter back into the Red Sox rotation.  Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta, Garrett Whitlock, and Tanner Houck comprised the rest of the starting five, with the expectation that Houck will likely return to bullpen duty once Wacha is ready.

Davis was claimed off waivers from the Giants in late April, and the outfielder has played nine games at Triple-A Worcester and two games at the big league level.  That makes it a fourth straight season of MLB action for Davis, albeit in somewhat sparing fashion, with only 28 games and 72 plate appearances on his resume in the Show.  The 27-year-old Davis is struggling to shed the “Quad-A” label, as he has yet to produce much in the majors, but also little else to prove in the minors (a .958 OPS over 554 PA at the Triple-A level).

Red Sox Notes: Sale, Paxton, Whitlock, Hill, Hernandez, Duran

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With the Red Sox struggling, it will still be a while before two big reinforcements are back on the mound.  Boston chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told reporters (including The Boston Globe’s Julian McWilliams and MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith) today that Chris Sale’s rehab from a stress fracture in his ribcage has been delayed by another medical issue, one not related to baseball or to COVID-19.  Sale has yet to resume throwing, and his return from the 60-day injured list is now expected for late June.

James Paxton is also dealing with some posterior elbow soreness, which is concerning since Paxton is just over a year removed from Tommy John surgery.  That rehab was already expected to keep Paxton from returning until around June or July, though this latest soreness could very well push back Paxton’s timeline, even though the southpaw is expected to resume throwing soon.

Paxton signed a one-year “swellopt” contract with Boston prior to the lockout, which will pay the left-hander $10MM in guaranteed money in 2022, and potentially up to $32MM over the 2022-24 seasons depending on whether or not the Red Sox exercise a pair of club options.  Naturally, the deal was signed with the knowledge that Paxton would miss a good chunk of the 2022 season, but Boston’s 10-17 record to date might change the equation.  While there is still plenty of time left for the Sox to turn things around, falling too far back in the competitive AL East might lead Bloom and company to consider selling at the trade deadline.

Sale is no stranger to Tommy John recoveries, as a TJ procedure sidelined Sale for the entire 2020 season and delayed his 2021 debut until August.  Since elbow problems also shut Sale down early in the 2019 campaign, the veteran lefty has pitched only 51 2/3 innings (in the regular season and postseason) since August 14, 2019.

Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, and Rich Hill have all pitched very well in Boston’s rotation this year, while Nick Pivetta has struggled and Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck have split duties as both starters and relievers.  Whitlock has been the better of the two, and Bloom said that Whitlock will be officially moved into the starting five while Hill is sidelined with a positive COVID-19 test.

Whitlock will start Tuesday’s game against the Braves, which will mark his fourth consecutive start.  Thus far, Whitlock has been just about as dominant in the rotation as he has in the bullpen, with a 1.50 ERA over his first 12 innings as a starting pitcher.  The Sox have been gradually building Whitlock’s pitch counts over those three starts, and he could now be close to being stretched out enough to operate in a more normal starting capacity.

Both Hill and Enrique Hernandez were placed on the COVID-related IL yeterday, though Hernandez was already activated today, as his symptoms weren’t coronavirus-related.  In the corresponding move, Jarren Duran was optioned back to Triple-A after a one-game appearance in the Show.  Duran tripled and walked as part of a 1-for-4 performance in Boston’s 4-2 loss to the White Sox last night.

Red Sox Promote Jarren Duran, John Schreiber

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4:16pm: In addition to Duran, reliever John Schreiber is being called up to the majors. Hernández and left-hander Rich Hill are going on the COVID list in corresponding moves. Neither Hernández nor Hill has tested positive, Speier tweets, but both are dealing with viral symptoms. Schreiber rejoins the 40-man roster after a brief stint as a COVID substitute earlier in the year.

9:35 AM: While Duran’s promotion may well still mean a substantial reduction in Jackie Bradley Jr.’s playing time — and perhaps the end of his time in Boston — it appears that the precipitating factor for Duran’s return to the majors is not Bradley’s poor offensive output but Kiké Hernández potentially contracting a COVID infection. Per an updated version of the same story, Speier reports that Hernández’s initial tests have come back negative but he continues to exhibit symptoms indicating a potential infection.

Hernández is expected to remain away from the team until his symptoms abate and the Red Sox medical staff is confident he is not positive for COVID. Players are allowed to be placed onto the COVID-19 IL without a positive test provided they are exhibiting symptoms or have been exposed to the virus. As the COVID-19 IL has no minimum duration, Hernández could return as soon he feels better and is confirmed not to be positive for the virus.

9:23 AM: After failing to keep pace with the Yankees, Rays, and Blue Jays in the first month-plus of the 2022 season, the Red Sox may be preparing to shake things up. Citing unnamed sources, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports that outfielder Jarren Duran will join the big-league club at Fenway Park for tonight’s series-opening game against the White Sox. The corresponding move is not yet known.

It will be the second taste of the majors for Duran, who logged a meager .215/.241/.336 triple-slash in 112 big-league plate appearances in 2021. He’s off to a blistering .370/.460/.574 start in 63 plate appearances at Triple-A Worcester, however, and Sox brass will hope he can provide a boost to an offense that currently ranks 27th (ahead of only Oakland, Kansas City, and Cincinatti) with a team wRC+ of 82.

Even were they to continue rolling out the same lineup, the Boston faithful could probably expect some offensive improvement simply from reversion of the mean. Four Sox regulars — Trevor Story, Alex Verdugo, Kiké Hernández, and Christian Vázquez — have established track records of meaningful production and are not yet old enough for age to explain significant regression. It’s an ill-timed confluence of slumps to be sure, but there’s no reason to expect Alex Cora, Chaim Bloom, and Brian O’Halloran to do anything but watch and wait four those four to break out of their early-season swoons.

Much less likely to continue to see their names on Cora’s lineup cards are first baseman Bobby Dalbec (who faces from pressure from 22-year-old top prospect Triston Casas) and outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr., whose place Duran may well take as soon as tonight. After eight productive years in Boston (including an ALCS MVP performance and a World Series title in 2018), Bradley’s production cratered after signing a two-year, $24MM deal with the Brewers ahead of the 2021 season. He was traded (along with prospects David Hamilton and Alex Binelas) back to Boston for outfielder Hunter Renfroe just ahead of this offseason’s lockout, but his numbers have hardly rebounded. In 508 plate appearances between Milwaukee and Boston, the 32-year-old Bradley has slashed a measly .166/.239/.261, including just a .181/.253/.264 output this year; he’d slashed a much more palatable .239/.321/.412 across the eight seasons prior. These are, of course, hardly the numbers a team with championship aspirations expects from a regular, even one providing consistently high-quality defense in the wacky Fenway Park outfield.

As the corresponding move is not yet known, it’s unclear whether Duran’s call-up spells the end of Bradley’s time in Boston. Should the Sox choose to part ways with the beloved outfielder, they’ll remain on the hook for the roughly $8MM remaining of his $9.5MM 2022 salary, as well as for the entirety of the $8MM buyout of his 2023 mutual option. The team could also choose to send either seldom-used reserve Franchy Cordero (who has an available option) or one of the fourteen pitchers currently on its active roster to the minors. Regardless of what the move spells for Bradley’s future, though, Sox fans can probably expect at least a slight uptick in outfield production — just without a familiar face in the lineup.

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