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Ryan O'Hearn

What Will The Orioles Outfield Look Like In 2025?

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The Orioles ran out the same three outfielders each Opening Day between 2021 and ’24: Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, and Austin Hays. And in each year from 2020-23, Mullins, Santander, and Hays were Baltimore’s three primary outfielders. This past season, however, Colton Cowser broke out with a phenomenal rookie campaign, cementing his position in the outfield at Camden Yards for years to come. Facing a logjam in the lineup, the Orioles dealt Hays to the Phillies ahead of the trade deadline, officially splitting up the Mullins/Santander/Hays triumvirate. Santander could be next to leave; after the conclusion of the World Series, he will become a free agent. Thus, for the first time in a long time, the Orioles’ outfield could look quite different on Opening Day 2025.

There is no doubt that Cowser will have a job in the Orioles’ outfield next season. Not only did he hit 24 home runs with a 120 wRC+ in 2024, but he did so while playing strong defense. The 24-year-old compiled 11 OAA and 3 DRS over 809 2/3 innings in left field, 310 innings in center, and 73 innings in right. He made just one error all year. Cowser is under team control through at least the 2029 season, and he will not be eligible for arbitration until at least 2027.

Mullins should be a lock for the 2025 outfield as well, although the Orioles will have to tender him a contract as he enters his final year of arbitration eligibility. Matt Swartz’s model estimates Mullins would earn approximately $8.7MM next year, a $2.375MM raise from his $6.325MM salary this season. That’s a bargain for a player like Mullins, even with his 2021 All-Star campaign getting smaller and smaller in the rearview mirror. He has been roughly league-average at the plate over the past two seasons  (102 wRC+) while providing plenty of value on the bases (51-for-60 in stolen base attempts) and playing a premium defensive position. Different metrics disagree about his talents in center field, but ultimately, the versions of WAR at both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference agree he has been a valuable contributor. From 2023-24, Mullins compiled 4.2 fWAR and 5.3 bWAR. There’s a chance the Orioles would consider moving Mullins to a corner and giving Cowser the center field job; including college and the minors, Cowser has more experience in center field than any other position. Mullins and his league-average bat would be less valuable in a corner spot, but a $8.7MM salary would still be a team-friendly price for his services.

As for the final spot in the outfield, plenty of fans would love to see Santander back next season (and for several more to come), but it’s unclear how intently the Orioles will pursue the All-Star slugger in free agency. They will surely make him the qualifying offer, and he just as will surely decline. He is likely seeking a multi-year deal worth at least $20MM per season. General manager Mile Elias is hoping to increase payroll this winter in his first full offseason working under new owner David Rubenstein, but it’s unclear how much money he’ll have to work with. More to the point, Elias might prfer to spend the majority of his resources improving a pitching staff that finished 14th in MLB in ERA and 10th in FanGraphs WAR rather than an offense that finished fourth in runs scored and third in wRC+. Santander will be a big loss for the offense, but ace Corbin Burnes, another impending free agent, will be an even bigger departure for Elias to address. With all that said, the Orioles might stick with their internal options to replace Santander in 2025.

Baltimore would love for 25-year-old Heston Kjerstad to step up and fill that role. The lefty batter put up ludicrous numbers in the minors this past season, batting .300 with a .998 OPS and 152 wRC+ in 56 games at Triple-A. His big league numbers (.745 OPS, 116 wRC+ in 39 games) weren’t bad, especially not for a rookie, but some of the underlying metrics suggest he’s due for regression (.301 xwOBA compared to a .327 wOBA), and his 28.9% strikeout rate was concerningly high for a hitter who wasn’t showing off plus power or plate discipline. Moreover, his outfield defense wasn’t particularly impressive in a small sample size (-1 DRS, -1 FRV). Kjerstad has the tools to be a terrific player, but he’ll to take a step forward at the plate if he’s going to provide above-average value as a defensively-limited corner outfielder.

Another option to play some corner outfield for the Orioles next year could be Coby Mayo, who is currently the team’s top prospect according to Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. Throughout his brief professional career, Mayo has mostly played third base. Aside from his strong arm, however, he has never graded out as a top-notch defender at the hot corner. So, with Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg already entrenched in the Orioles’ infield and Jackson Holliday not going anywhere, Mayo’s future might need to be somewhere else. He has experience playing first base as well, and that could be his long-term position. But considering his terrific throwing arm, it makes sense that he would give the outfield a try. To that point, Elias recently suggested right field could be an option for the 22-year-old, though he made it clear the organization still views him as an infielder, and primarily a first baseman, going forward (per Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball).

Two more internal options to keep in mind are prospects Dylan Beavers and Enrique Bradfield Jr. Beavers, 23, is the team’s No. 5 prospect according to FanGraphs, No. 6 according to MLB Pipeline, and No. 7 according to Baseball America. He hit well enough at Double-A in 2024 (15 HR, 118 wRC+ in 119 games) to earn a brief promotion to Triple-A at the end of the season. He’s also a plus runner with the potential to be a capable big league center fielder. Bradfield, 22, is a few months younger and a little further away from the majors; he moved up from High-A to Double-A this past August. However, most sources agree he is the slightly more promising prospect. FanGraphs and MLB Pipeline have him at No. 4, while Baseball America has him at No. 6. He boasts 80-grade speed and has the skills to be an elite defensive center fielder. As for his bat, he has little power to speak of, so he’ll need to prove he can maintain his impressive bat-to-ball skills against tougher competition. Neither Beavers nor Bradfield needs protection from the Rule 5 draft this offseason, and neither is a likely candidate to make the Opening Day roster out of camp. However, their relative proximity to the majors could be a reason why the Orioles avoid signing a free agent outfielder to a multi-year deal.

Finally, the Orioles will have to decide whether or not to pick up Ryan O’Hearn’s $8MM club option for 2025. O’Hearn is primarily a first baseman and DH, but he played 27 games in the outfield last season. The 31-year-old slashed .264/.334/.427 with 15 home runs and a 119 wRC+ in 2024, good for 1.7 fWAR. If he can repeat that performance next season, an $8MM salary would be more than fair, but with Kjerstad and Mayo in need of playing time, the Orioles might prefer to spend that $8MM elsewhere.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Ryan O’Hearn Leveled Up … Again

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It’s been just shy of a year since MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald wrote, “The Orioles may have found the lefty bat they wanted” when writing about Ryan O’Hearn’s then-nascent breakout in Baltimore. Acquired from the Royals in exchange for cash on the heels of a DFA, O’Hearn was subsequently designated for assignment by the Orioles as well before being passed through waivers unclaimed and sent outright to Triple-A Norfolk.

It was the sort of ostensible unremarkable trade that is made hundreds of times over the course of a calendar year and quickly forgotten — until it wasn’t. As most are aware — certainly every Orioles fan — O’Hearn indeed emerged as the left-handed bat Baltimore had sought. At the time of Darragh’s piece last year, O’Hearn was slashing .308/.348/.542 with six home runs in 115 plate appearances. It wasn’t a big sample and he wasn’t walking much (5.2%), but O’Hearn’s batted-ball data supported much of that early flurry. He finished the year in strong fashion, seeing regular playing time against right-handed pitching and ending the year with a stout .289/.322/.480 slash — 18% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+.

For a player who’d hit .211/.282/.351 with a 27% strikeout rate over the four prior seasons in Kansas City (2019-22) before being designated for assignment, last season was a stunning breakout. The Orioles would’ve been thrilled just to have that one year, but O’Hearn came to Baltimore with four-plus years of playing time, making him controllable through the 2024 season. It was a no-brainer to tender him a contract and go through the arbitration process with him, and even if he reverted back to his 2019-22 form or regressed some at the plate, the entire gambit of acquiring him would’ve been well worth it based on 2023 alone.

O’Hearn, however, hasn’t reverted to his 2019-22 form. He hasn’t regressed closer to league-average. He hasn’t maintained the status quo and or even taken just a small step forward. Rather, he’s taken his game to an entirely new level, not just in terms of his raw run-production but also his approach at the plate.

In 189 plate appearances this season — all but 11 coming against right-handed pitching, it should be noted — O’Hearn is batting .287/.384/.489. He’s been 38% better than league-average, per wRC+. He’s already belted nine homers, six doubles and a triple.

He’s also struck out 19 times. In 189 plate appearances. Lest you think that was a typo, let’s write it out: nineteen times.

O’Hearn, who entered the 2024 season with a lifetime 25.6% strikeout rate in the big leagues, has at 30 years old simply become allergic to strikeouts. He’s also nearly doubled his walk rate from last year’s 4.1% to 7.9%. That feat isn’t as eye-popping on its own, given O’Hearn’s penchant for drawing free passes earlier in his career (11.5% from 2018-20), but it does serve to further underscore the evolution of his approach at the plate.

By measure of Statcast, O’Hearn chased 32% of pitches off the plate in 2023. This year, that number is down to 26.5%. He’s making contact on balls out of the strike zone at a career-best 64.4% clip, and his ability to connect on pitches within the strike zone has also ticked up. This year’s 90.6% mark is a career-best and sits more than five percentage points north of the 85.3% league average.

The uptick in volume of contact has come at the expense of some of his quality of contact, but that’s not to say O’Hearn is getting by with a series of well-placed bloops and weak grounders. His 90.4 mph average exit velocity and 41.9% hard-hit rate are both strong — they’re just down from last year’s respective marks of 91.9 mph and 51.5%. He’s in the 72nd and 75th percentile of MLB players in terms of exit velo and hard-hit rate, plus the 85th percentile of hitters in terms of whiff rate. Even with less life on his average batted ball, the increased frequency of contact leads Statcast to project O’Hearn in the 94th percentile or better in terms of his expected batting average, slugging percentage and wOBA.

It bears repeating that some of the reasoning for both his quality of contact and his gaudy expected stats is that O’Hearn is shielded nearly entirely from left-on-left matchups. His career performance in such situations (.168/.236/.286) rather emphatically shows that he’s benefited from Baltimore’s aggressive platooning. That somewhat specialized role doesn’t detract from his usefulness however, and when coupled with the nonexistent cost of acquisition, O’Hearn continues to cement himself as one of the current front office regime’s savviest acquisitions.

Speaking of savvy, any discussion of O’Hearn’s production should also touch on the slugger’s contract status. As noted before, O’Hearn came to Baltimore with two seasons of club control remaining. However, the two parties weren’t able to agree on a middle ground in arbitration prior to exchanging figures. O’Hearn filed for a $3.8MM salary to the Orioles’ $3.2MM figure. The two parties ultimately avoided a hearing at the eleventh hour, agreeing to a $3.5MM salary for the 2024 season — the midpoint between their submitted figures — as well as a club option for the 2025 campaign.

That would’ve been O’Hearn’s first free-agent season, but the O’s now have control over next year at a $7.5MM price point. O’Hearn would boost that option value by $500K upon appearing in 120 and 150 games. The latter of those two numbers won’t happen. O’Hearn has already been absent from 14 Orioles games. He’s on pace to appear in 127 games, however, making the first of those $500K escalators still not only attainable but likely.

The club option was notable at the time but hardly a lock to be exercised or even emerge as a borderline decision. But, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco quipped to me when chatting about O’Hearn’s newfound contact skills, few realized he was going to “turn into Luis Arraez with power.” That’s a bit of an overstatement of course — Arraez has fanned at a ridiculous 5.7% clip since Opening Day 2023 — but O’Hearn currently possesses the seventh-lowest strikeout rate of the 248 hitters with at least 150 plate appearances this season. Of the 30 players in that set who have a strikeout rate of 15% or lower, the only one hitting for more power than O’Hearn (by measure of ISO) is Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez. Securing what now looks to be a wildly affordable club option for a third season in order to avoid a hearing over a $600K difference in figures looks like a raucous bargain for the Orioles.

O’Hearn may be a limited player by virtue of his platoon splits and lackluster defensive ratings both in the outfield corners and at first base, but he’s developed one of the most unique skill sets in the game and made himself a vital member of one of MLB’s top offenses. On two different occasions in the 2022-23 offseason, any club could’ve acquired O’Hearn for nothing more than cash or a waiver claim.

The Orioles clearly didn’t expect this level of outcome — they wouldn’t have designated him for assignment if they did — but they deserve credit for seeing value where others didn’t. Much of the focus on Baltimore’s success is rightly placed on young core of players either drafted by the O’s (Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, etc.) or acquired via trade (Corbin Burnes, Kyle Bradish, Cade Povich), but hitting the jackpot on a small-scale pickup like O’Hearn is the sort of move that can be a separator, providing a high-end complementary player to help take an impressive core to the next level.

Orioles, Ryan O’Hearn Avoid Arbitration

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9:05am: The 2025 option is valued at $7.5MM and does not contain a buyout, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports. The value of that option would jump $500K if O’Hearn appears in 120 games and another $500K for appearing in 150 games.

8:30am: O’Hearn is guaranteed $3.5MM, Andy Koska of the Baltimore Banner reports.

7:54am: The Orioles announced this morning that the club agreed to a one-year contract with first baseman Ryan O’Hearn to avoid arbitration. The terms of the deal are not yet clear, though the pact does include a club option for the 2025 season. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected O’Hearn for a $3MM salary in 2024 back in October. Both sides submitted figures slightly higher than that projection back in January, as O’Hearn requested a $3.8MM salary while the Orioles countered at $3.2MM.

The 30-year-old O’Hearn, acquired from the Royals last offseason in exchange for cash, has the best season of his big league career with Baltimore in 2023. The former eighth-round pick slashed .289/.322/.480 with career-highs in plate appearances (368), home runs (14), doubles (22).

That O’Hearn agreed to a club option for the 2025 season is an unexpected benefit for the Orioles. The lefty-swinging slugger had been slated to reach open market following the 2024 campaign, but Baltimore now gains control over what would’ve been his first free-agent season.

O’Hearn tallied only 29 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers in 2023, and he’ll likely reprise that platoon first base/designated role in 2024. He’ll be joined by right-handed-hitting Ryan Mountcastle in that mix, but both players will have plenty of young talent pushing for playing time as the season wears on. Corner infielder Coby Mayo and outfielders Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad could all push onto the big league roster and into prominent roles at some point in 2024. (Cowser and Kjerstad have already made their MLB debuts.)

If and when that happens, right fielder Anthony Santander could be pushed into more time at designated hitter, crowding the mix. It’s a good “problem” for the Orioles to have, and one that could of course be alleviated by injuries that a team inevitably incurs over the course of the year. At $3.5MM, O’Hearn is a reasonably priced power bat off the bench, even if the Orioles’ burgeoning youth movement pushes him into a reserve role.

The Orioles exchanged arbitration figures with an MLB-high five players, O’Hearn among them. The team avoided hearings with O’Hearn and left-handed relievers Danny Coulombe and Cionel Perez by agreeing to one-year deals with club options for the 2025 season. Outfielder Austin Hays and right-handed reliever Jacob Webb both won hearings over the team.

Requested Salary Figures For 22 Players Who Didn’t Reach Agreements By Arbitration-Filing Deadline

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Today was the deadline for teams and players eligible for arbitration to exchange salary figures for the 2024 season ahead of possible arbitration hearings. And, as usual, the vast majority of eligible players worked out deals for 2024 (and, in some cases, beyond) before the deadline this afternoon. While these agreements are all listed in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker, unfinished business remains around the league. 22 players have not yet settled on a salary for the 2024 and are therefore at risk of having their salaries determined by an arbiter. That number is down considerably from last season, when 33 players exchanged figures. Of note, this list does not include Brewers right-hander Devin Williams. While the sides exchanged figures earlier this evening, they managed to avoid arbitration after the deadline had passed.

This year, arbitration hearings will begin on January 29th and run through February 16th, two days after pitchers and catchers are due to report for Spring Training. While there’s nothing stopping teams and players from settling to avoid arbitration between now and their hearing, the majority of clubs employ a “file and trial” approach to arbitration hearings, stopping negotiations prior to the formal exchange of figures in order to put additional pressure on players to agree to a deal early. While this approach generally puts a moratorium on discussion of one-year deals, teams are typically still willing to discuss multi-year pacts beyond today’s deadline.

Below are the 22 players who have yet to reach an agreement regarding their 2024 salaries, as well as the players’ requested salaries and the counteroffers issued by clubs. The league tends to pay close attention to arbitration salaries because outliers can serve as precedent going forward, raising the bar both for individual players and players as a whole in the future. That reality incentivizes teams to strictly stick to a “file and trial” approach in arbitration and risk a tense hearing between club and player rather than bridge even fairly minimal gaps between club and player salary figures.

[RELATED: Arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz]

14 of the league’s 30 clubs have at least one case that has yet to be settled. The Orioles have the most cases that have yet to be settled, with five players on track for a hearing against the club. That being said, it’s worth noting that Baltimore has a massive, 17-player class of arbitration-eligible players, so it’s hardly a surprise that they wound up exchanging figures with an elevated number of players. Toronto first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. submitted the highest salary figure among all players headed for a hearing at $19.9MM, while the Rangers and outfielder Adolis Garcia narrowly top Guerrero and the Blue Jays for the largest gap between figures, with $1.9MM separating Garcia’s request of $6.9MM from the Rangers’ $5MM counteroffer.

The total list, which will be updated as settlements are reached and the results of hearings are made available…

Ryan Mountcastle Being Evaluated For Shoulder Issue, Heston Kjerstad Promotion Possible

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Ryan Mountcastle departed this evening’s loss to the Cardinals. He was injured during his first inning at-bat and removed from the game when his turn in the order came around two innings later. The O’s announced that he’d experienced left shoulder discomfort.

While Mountcastle is day-to-day at the moment, the O’s could turn to a top prospect to replace him. Danielle Allentuck and Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner report that Heston Kjerstad is en route to Baltimore. It isn’t yet clear if a promotion is contingent on a potential Mountcastle IL stint.

Speaking with the team’s beat postgame, Baltimore’s first baseman expressed concern about the injury. Mountcastle said he felt his shoulder pop on a swing (via Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun and Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball). After leaving the game, he tested the injury by attempting to swing in the batting cage but continued to feel soreness. He’ll go for more imaging tomorrow.

The team will surely provide more information when it becomes available, but it’s a suboptimal time for the O’s to potentially lose one of their hottest hitters. Tonight’s loss cut their lead in the AL East to two games over Tampa Bay. The Rays are headed to Baltimore for a four-game set that could have significant ramifications for the division. It’s quite arguably the biggest regular season series of the year for both clubs, since the eventual division champion will get a first-round bye and very likely have home field advantage in the postseason until the World Series.

Mountcastle has been one of the better hitters in the majors over the past two months. He’d opened the year with one of the worst offensive stretches of his career, hitting .227/.262/.421 over his first 60 contests. Baltimore placed him on the injured list with vertigo symptoms in mid-June, keeping him out of action for around a month. Since returning on July 9, Mountcastle has raked at a .327/.406/.497 clip over 197 plate appearances.

The silver lining is that Baltimore has a number of high-upside offensive players who could take on larger roles if necessary. Ryan O’Hearn has taken a significant step forward after struggling with the Royals. He’s hitting .301/.332/.500 while dividing his time between first base, the corner outfield and designated hitter. O’Hearn is already in the lineup on most days but could take on a more regular role at first base.

That’d leave some rotational at-bats for the 24-year-old Kjerstad should the O’s decide to promote him. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote this morning that the Arkansas product had put himself on the radar for a possible MLB debut but that the O’s were concerned they might not have enough at-bats to spread around. Mountcastle’s injury might open up that opportunity just a few hours later.

The O’s tabbed Kjerstad with the second overall pick in the 2020 draft. It was a bit of a surprise, as most public pre-draft rankings felt he would land in the back half of the top 10. Kjerstad unfortunately didn’t have an opportunity to reward the O’s faith for a while. He contracted myocarditis (inflammation of the heart muscle) in 2020 and was sidelined for the entire subsequent season.

It wasn’t until June 2022 — nearly two full years after his draft date — that Kjerstad was able to make his professional debut. He understandably struggled somewhat in High-A late last summer, but he has flashed the potential impact offensive tools the organization had envisioned this year.

Kjerstad has split the season between the top two minor league levels, mashing at a .303/.376/.529 clip over 121 contests. He has connected on 21 homers, 29 doubles and eight triples while striking out at a lower than average 18.5% clip. Baseball America slots him 44th on their most recent Top 100 prospects update.

Baltimore’s 40-man roster is capacity. If they decide to select Kjerstad’s contract (presumably in tandem with a 10-day IL stint for Mountcastle), they’d need to make an additional 40-man move.

AL East Notes: Rays, Mullins, Mountcastle, Romano

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While the Rays are typically known for making careful, calculated moves in order to maximize long-term success, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times discussed yesterday the possibility of Tampa making a splash in the trade market prior to the trade deadline on August 1 by pursuing two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, on whom the Angels are expected to consider offers.

Such a move would be a major departure from the club’s typical model, though president of baseball operations Erik Neander and his front office have shown a willingness to be more aggressive in recent years. Trading promising right-hander Joe Ryan for Nelson Cruz ahead of the 2021 trade deadline, extending Wander Franco on an 11-year deal that offseason, and pursuing Freddie Freeman in free agency are all signs from the relatively recent past that the Rays could be willing to take bigger swings in their pursuit of a World Series championship, and there’s no acquisition that would move the needle more than Ohtani.

While the club certainly has the pieces necessary to swing a deal for Ohtani between a farm system that ranks 8th in the majors per Fangraphs and a deep group of position players at the big league level, Topkin cautions that the Rays are highly unlikely to enter a bidding war for Ohtani as the club wouldn’t be able to retain the superstar in free agency. Between that unwillingness to beat out other potential suitors like the Yankees and Dodgers for Ohtani and the considerable chance that the Angels don’t move him at all, as they’re currently sitting just one game under .500 and five games back of a Wild Card berth, Ohtani in a Rays uniform certainly seems unlikely.

More from around the AL East…

  • Orioles center fielder Cedric Mullins exited yesterday’s game with right quad tightness, as noted by MASN’s Roch Kubatko. Mullins is currently considered day-to-day, and the club will check in with him today to determine the severity of the injury. Manager Brandon Hyde expressed optimism following yesterday’s game, telling reporters (including Kubatko) that the club is “hoping we caught a break there.” Fortunately for the Orioles, they boast a deep group of position players that can help cover for Mullins in the event he misses time, though properly replacing a strong defensive center fielder with a 123 wRC+ is easier said than done.
  • Sticking with the Orioles, the club has been taking things slowly with first baseman Ryan Mountcastle as he returns from a month on the injured list due to vertigo. While Mountcastle has looked good in limited time since coming off the IL, with a single and a double in five trips to the plate, Kubatko notes that his ability to reclaim a full-time role has been further complicated by the emergence of Ryan O’Hearn as a legitimate starting option. In 156 plate appearances this season, O’Hearn has slashed an impressive .310/.359/.528 with a wRC+ of 143, albeit in a strictly platoon role. Though Mountcastle currently seems poised to see most of his starts come against southpaws, Hyde indicated that setup may not be permanent, telling reporters that he’s “sure” Mountcastle will get some starts against same-handed pitching and that “we’ll see how the second half goes.”
  • Blue Jays closer Jordan Romano exited the All-Star game last week due to lower back tightness and has since undergone an MRI, as relayed by SportsCentre’s Scott Mitchell. Manager John Schneider told reporters, including Mitchell, that the imaging came back clean and Romano is currently considered day-to-day. Romano has established himself as one of the league’s best closers over the past four seasons, pitching to a 2.21 ERA (190 ERA+) and a 3.01 FIP while racking up 87 saves. In the event the right-hander is unavailable, Erik Swanson and Yimi Garcia appear to be the most likely candidates to handle the ninth.

The Orioles May Have Found The Lefty Bat They Wanted

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The Orioles made it pretty clear they wanted to get a cheap left-handed bat this winter to play either first base, a corner outfield spot or designated hitter. They signed players like Nomar Mazara and Franchy Cordero to minor league deals. They claimed Jake Cave and Ryan O’Hearn off waivers and twice claimed Lewin Díaz.

It’s fairly understandable why they would covet that type of player, given their in-house options for those bat-first roles. Ryan Mountcastle has been the club’s primary first baseman for a while and hits right-handed. He doesn’t have drastic platoon splits but has hit .265/.315/.495 against lefties in his career for a 118 wRC+, compared to a .251/.303/.434 line and 102 wRC+ against righties. Outfielder/designated hitter Anthony Santander is a switch hitter but is also better against lefties: .264/.325/.471 and 117 wRC+ against southpaws but .242/.295/.454 and 102 wRC+ against northpaws. Austin Hays and Ryan McKenna also hit from the right side and have modest splits for their careers.

Adding a solid lefty bat into the mix would have been a way to add some flexibility and occasionally shield those guys from tough matchups. But since it wasn’t a desperate situation, it made sense the O’s stuck to modest moves as opposed to a big signing. Most of those small transactions haven’t worked out, however. Cave was later lost to the Phillies when the O’s tried to pass him through waivers. Both Cordero and Mazara opted out of their deals when they didn’t make the Opening Day roster and are now with other clubs. Díaz was passed through waivers and is hitting at a league average rate in Triple-A this year.

The one player from that bunch who is on the roster is O’Hearn. He had previously spent his entire career with the Royals, having been drafted by them back in 2014. He made it to the big leagues in 2018 and showed his potential that year, hitting .262/.353/.597 in his first 44 games for a 153 wRC+. But he struggled badly in subsequent campaigns, hitting just .211/.282/.351 in 901 plate appearances from 2019 to 2022.

Despite four consecutive rough seasons, the Royals tendered O’Hearn a contract for 2023, avoiding arbitration by agreeing to a $1.4MM salary with $250K in bonuses. But in December, they designated him for assignment, perhaps hoping his rough track record and a salary roughly twice the league minimum would tamp down any interest from other clubs. But the O’s weren’t swayed and sent cash considerations to the Royals in order to facilitate a deal, though they themselves passed him through waivers in January.

O’Hearn technically could have rejected the outright assignment and elected free agency due to having more than three years of service time, but he was shy of the five-year mark and would have had to forfeit that money in order to do so. He made the obvious decision to hang onto that cash and stick with the O’s, fighting for his roster spot.

He was eventually selected to the roster a couple of weeks into the season, on April 13. He received sporadic playing time over the next few weeks, getting 22 plate appearances over nine games, hitting just .263/.318/.316 in those for a 77 wRC+. He was optioned to the minors on May 5 but quickly recalled on May 9, able to return after less than the minimum 10 days because Ramón Urías was placed on the injured list.

Since that recall, he has been on an absolute tear. He’s hit six home runs in 93 plate appearances across 27 games. His .318/.355/.591 slash line in that time amounts to a 161 wRC+. This is still a small sample size but it’s a very encouraging development after years of looking lost at the plate. The O’s have shielded him from left-handed pitchers, as he has just six plate appearances against them this year compared to 109 against righties. But when a righty is on the mound, he’s impressed enough to get the cleanup spot in their lineup.

It’s dangerous to draw too many broad conclusions from such a small bit of data, but there’s also reason to suspect a meaningful change has taken place. O’Hearn recently spoke to Nathan Ruiz of The Baltimore Sun about some changes in his mechanics suggested by hitting coaches Ryan Fuller and Matt Borgschulte, who focused on his hip rotation and hand placement. When asked if it was strange that no one pointed out these issues with his mechanics before, he replied “You could say that.” Perhaps the shift to a different organizational philosophy and approach was just what he needed to tap into his potential.

There are encouraging numbers beyond the traditional stat line. Statcast pegs his average exit velocity at 93.4 mph this year, which would be a career high. The same goes for his 14.6% barrel rate and 56.1% hard hit rate. Among players with at least 50 batted ball events this year, that average exit velocity places him 15th in the league, matching Yordan Alvarez and just ahead of guys like Juan Soto and Randy Arozarena. That hard hit rate places him in eighth place among that same group.

We’re still talking about a limited sample here and essentially a strict platoon deployment, but for a guy who’s making a small salary and was designated for assignment twice this winter, getting any kind of production is a great find. If it continues for the next few months, the O’s can keep him for an extra season as well, as he’s currently on pace to finish 2023 with just over five years of MLB service time. That means he’ll be eligible for one more arbitration season in 2024 before qualifying for free agency.*

(*Sidenote: O’Hearn seems likely to benefit from a feature in the CBA that awards service time for brief optional assignments. “If a Player is optionally assigned for a total of less than 20 days in one championship season, the Player shall be credited with Major League service during the period of such optional assignment(s).” O’Hearn therefore won’t be dinged for that brief option in May, getting service time from his April 13 selection to the end of the year. This year’s season is 186 days long but a player needs 172 days to get a full year. O’Hearn missed the first 14 days of the season and will get exactly that 172 figure. Since he began this year with his service time clock at 4.002, he should finish 2023 at 5.002. Future optional assignments could change that trajectory, but he would have to fall off at the plate in order for the O’s to consider that. Full CBA text courtesy of the MLBPA.)

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports

Orioles Designate Luis Torrens For Assignment, Recall Drew Rom

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The Orioles announced a series of roster moves today, recalling left-hander Drew Rom, infielder/outfielder Ryan O’Hearn and infielder Terrin Vavra from Triple-A Norfolk. In corresponding moves, infielder Ramón Urías was placed on the 10-day injured list with a left hamstring strain, left-hander Keegan Akin was optioned to Norfolk and catcher Luis Torrens was designated for assignment.

Torrens, 27, was acquired from the Cubs less than a week ago and was a bit of a curious fit on Baltimore’s roster. They already had Adley Rutschman and James McCann forming their catching duo and Torrens was out of options, meaning he couldn’t be sent down to the minors. Now Torrens has been cut from the roster without even getting into a game as an Oriole, just a few days after Baltimore sent cash to Chicago in order to acquire him.

The Orioles are no strangers to acquiring veteran depth and almost immediately designating that player for assignment, in hopes of successfully passing him through waivers and retaining him in Triple-A. They’ve done this frequently over the past year, with the aforementioned O’Hearn a prime example. First baseman Lewin Diaz and catcher Anthony Bemboom have also fallen under this category, and the O’s tried to do the same with outfielder Jake Cave but lost him when the Phillies claimed him off waivers.

The 26-year-old Torrens is a career .227/.289/.352 hitter in 799 Major League plate appearances between the Padres, Mariners and Cubs. He’s connected on 19 home runs, fanned at a 26% clip and drawn a walk in 7.8% of those trips to the plate. He regularly made contact during his three-year run with Seattle, evidenced by a 91 mph average exit velocity and hefty 45.7% hard-hit rate, but that quality contact didn’t necessarily translate into production.

Defensively, Torrens has drawn below-average grades from Defensive Runs Saved and most pitch-framing metrics. He has a below-average 21.7% caught-stealing rate in his career but did throw out nine of 28 attempted thieves (32.1%) as recently as last season. The O’s will have a week to trade him or attempt to pass him through waivers, which seems like the more probable path they’ll tread, based on their history with this sort of move.

As for Rom, this is his first ascension to the Major League level. He’ll make his debut whenever he takes the mound for the first time. The 23-year-old southpaw, a fourth-round pick in 2018, has pitched exclusively out of the rotation so far in Norfolk, working 31 1/3 innings with a 2.87 ERA to go along with impressive strikeout (24.6%), walk (7.7%) and ground-ball (55.4%) rates on the year.

While Rom isn’t considered to be one of the Orioles’ top overall prospect, he is considered one of the best pitching prospects in a system that skews more toward position players than arms. MLB.com ranks Rom 19th among Baltimore prospects but sixth-best among the team’s minor league pitchers; it’s a similar story at Baseball America, where he’s 25th overall but ninth among their minor league hurlers. He doesn’t throw particularly hard, sitting in the low 90s with his heater, but has typically posted better-than-average strikeout and ground-ball rates. Rom has more than held his own against left-handed opponents in his minor league career but has been far more hittable when facing righties.

Orioles Select Ryan O’Hearn, Designate Anthony Bemboom

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The Orioles announced this morning that they have selected the contract of first baseman/corner outfielder Ryan O’Hearn from Triple-A Norfolk. In a corresponding move, the club has designated catcher Anthony Bemboom for assignment.

Baltimore acquired the 29-year-old O’Hearn from the Royals in exchange for cash back in early January, after he’d been designated for assignment in Kansas City. The O’s quickly passed O’Hearn through waivers themselves, gaining the right to retain him in Triple-A without dedicating a 40-man roster spot to him. He’s now back on the 40-man roster and in the big leagues after a strong .300/.349/.725 start to his season in Norfolk. O’Hearn has collected four homers, three doubles and a triple in 43 plate appearances with the Tides thus far in 2023.

Early in his career, O’Hearn looked like a breakout candidate with the Royals. The 2014 eighth-rounder made his big league debut in 2018, posting a torrid .262/.353/.597 batting line and belting a dozen home runs in 170 plate appearances that season. He floundered in 41 plate appearances against fellow lefties, but O’Hearn looked to have the makings of a righty-mashing platoon option at first base.

Things haven’t panned out at all since that outstanding debut, however. The Royals repeatedly showed faith in the slugger, tendering contracts to him in each of the past two offseasons when he’d appeared to be a strong non-tender candidate. In 901 MLB plate appearances from 2019-22, O’Hearn mustered only a .211/.282/.351 batting line with a 26.9% strikeout rate against an 8.7% walk rate.

O’Hearn is being paid a $1.4MM salary in 2023 under the terms of that contract he agreed to with the Royals. He’ll be arbitration-eligible again next offseason if he sticks on the Orioles’ roster for the remainder of the season, although given his struggles since 2019, that’s far from a sure thing. For now, he’ll give them a lefty bat off the bench who can mix in at designated hitter, first base or in either of the outfield corners. The vast majority of his defensive innings as a pro have come at first base (5248 innings), but between the big leagues and the minors, O’Hearn does have a combined 498 innings in left field and 546 innings in right field.

Turning to the 33-year-old Bemboom, he’s appeared in just two games this season and gone 0-for-2 with a walk in three plate appearances. The journeyman backstop has 78 Major League games under his belt, with a tepid .158/.233/.262 batting line through 206 plate appearances along the way.

Bemboom has served as a backup option with the Angels, Rays and O’s over the years, and while his big league production isn’t much to look at, he does carry a more palatable .247/340/.392 slash in just shy of 1100 plate appearances over the course of 291 Triple-A games. He’s generally drawn above-average framing marks, boasts a strong career 34% caught-stealing rate (MLB and minors combined), and has a career mark of 3 Defensive Runs Saved in 513 big league innings behind the dish.

The O’s will have a week to trade Bemboom or attempt to pass him through outright waivers. If he goes unclaimed, Bemboom would have the right to reject an outright assignment, although the O’s agreed to a split big league deal with him last October that presumably comes with a larger rate of pay in Triple-A than he might otherwise receive upon rejecting an assignment and electing minor league free agency. That was seemingly done in large part because the O’s value him as a depth option and want to incentivize him to stick around even if he’s not on the 40-man roster.

Orioles Release Nomar Mazara, Franchy Cordero

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The Orioles announced several roster moves today, including that infielder/outfielder Franchy Cordero and outfielder Nomar Mazara have been released. Also, infielder Ryan O’Hearn was reassigned to the minor leagues. Both Cordero and Mazara opted out of their deals, general manager Mike Elias tells Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Elias expressed optimism about the club re-signing Cordero.

The Orioles spent much of the offseason attempting to stockpile non-roster players that hit from the left side. Lewin Díaz was twice claimed off waivers and then subsequently designated for assignment, eventually clearing waivers the second time around. O’Hearn was claimed off waivers from the Royals but then later passed through by the O’s. The club also signed Mazara, Cordero and Josh Lester to minor league deals. It seems neither Cordero nor Mazara were getting roster spots for Opening Day, leading to them opting out of their deals and returning to free agency, though the O’s will still have those other players around for the left-handed non-roster depth they craved.

Cordero, 28, has appeared in 227 MLB games between the Padres, Royals and Red Sox. He’s hit 21 home runs in that time but also struck out in 34.8% of his plate appearances. His .221/.290/.386 batting line amounts to a wRC+ of 83, indicating he’s been 17% below league average. He’s had a tremendous spring, however, hitting .413/.426/.674 in 18 games.

Mazara, 28 next month, was once a highly-touted prospect, appearing on Baseball America’s Top 100 in 2015 and 2016. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to live up to that pedigree thus far. His .256/.315/.414 batting line in 684 MLB games amounts to a wRC+ of 89. Unlike Cordero, he wasn’t impressing much this spring, with a batting line of .231/.286/.308.

Both players are now free to pursue opportunities with all 30 clubs. They will both likely receive interest, given Cordero’s hot spring and Mazara’s former prospect pedigree. As Elias mentioned, the club feels good about their ability to retain Cordero, so it’s possible he returns on another minor league deal before long.

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