Triston Casas Facing Notable Absence Due To Rib Fracture
Red Sox skipper Álex Cora acknowledged over the weekend that there was concern about a potentially “lengthy absence” for first baseman Triston Casas following a rib injury, and it now seems those fears were warranted. Cora announced to the Red Sox beat that an MRI revealed a left rib fracture for Casas (X link via MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo), adding that the slugger is expected to be sidelined for “a while.” Cora didn’t delve into specifics but noted that Bobby Dalbec will pick up the bulk of playing time at first base in his absence.
The news is obviously rough for the Red Sox, as Casas has emerged as a consistently above-average hitter early in his career. Though he just turned 24 years old in January, he now has 687 major league plate appearances with 35 home runs and a walk rate of 14.7%. His 25.5% strikeout rate is a bit on the high side but the power and the free passes have led to a 252/.362/.482 batting line and 129 wRC+.
The Sox will now have to proceed without that production for some nebulous amount of time. “Time-table? There’s none,” Cora said, per Ian Browne of MLB.com. “This has to heal on its own. We’ve just got to be patient.”
Regardless of the eventual length of his absence, it adds to a growing pile of injuries for the Red Sox. Trevor Story is out for the year due to shoulder surgery. Vaughn Grissom hasn’t yet made his debut with the team due to a groin strain, though he is on a rehab assignment and getting closer to joining the big league club. The rotation is without Lucas Giolito, Garrett Whitlock and Nick Pivetta at the moment. The Sox have managed to go 13-10 so far and stay afloat in a tough A.L. East race, but each injury will make it harder to keep that up as the grind of the season continues.
For now, Dalbec will step in at first base, despite having hit .033/.121/.067 on the year so far. He has generally hit will in Triple-A over the years but struggled whenever brought up to the majors. He has hit .224/.291/.434 in the big leagues, 93 wRC+, while striking out in 36.5% of his plate appearances. Dating back to the start of 2021, he has hit .265/.372/.558 in the minors. His 33.8% strikeout rate down on the farm in that time has still been high but that production leads to a 129 wRC+.
The Sox will be hoping that a run of consistent playing time will help Dalbec get into a groove and have his major league numbers more closely resemble what he’s done in the minors. The Sox could also keep their eyes open for other options. The Cubs just designated first baseman Garrett Cooper for assignment and Boston is a sensible landing spot for him, though it’s one of many. If the Red Sox end up finding someone they like for the first base gig more than Dalbec, he can play other positions and is also still optionable.
Assuming Casas is going to miss at least a couple of months, he’ll be moved to the 60-day injured list whenever the club needs a roster spot. He was already placed on the 10-day IL on the weekend.
Red Sox Place Triston Casas On 10-Day Injured List
12:42pm: Cora told reporters this afternoon, including Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe, that Casas is headed for an MRI in Boston tomorrow and that there is concern he could be in for a “lengthy” absence. The manager added that the team intends to discuss its options tomorrow. Abraham adds that Casas told reporters this afternoon that he’s in “a lot of pain” due to the injury and feels it when swinging the bat.
April 21, 9:32am: The Red Sox officially placed Casas on the 10-day injured list with a left rib strain this morning, recalling Heineman in the corresponding move. Heineman, 33 in June, has participated in parts of four MLB seasons and struggled with the bat during his limited time in the majors, slashing just .218/.297/.282 in 104 career games.
April 20: Red Sox first baseman Triston Casas exited today’s game against the Pirates in the first inning due to what the club has termed left rib discomfort. As noted by Chris Cotillo of MassLive, manager Alex Cora indicated to reporters after the game that he was “concerned” about Casas’s injury and that the first baseman had left the ballpark to undergo further testing. While it’s not entirely clear how serious Casas’s injury is, it appears the club is at least preparing for the possibility that an IL stint will be required as Cotillo also reports that journeyman catcher Tyler Heineman is set to join the club in Pittsburgh tomorrow as the only healthy position player on the club’s 40-man roster who isn’t already on the active roster.
If Casas were to miss an extended period of time, it would be brutal news for the Red Sox. The 24-year-old slugger has gotten off to an excellent start so far this season with a .244/.337/.513 slash line with six home runs in just 89 trips to the plate. The youngster’s strong numbers early in the 2024 season are a continuation of his hot second half last year, when he slashed an incredible .317/.417/.617 in 211 trips to the plate after the All Star break.
It’s the latest in a series of injury woes for Boston, as the club has already lost Trevor Story, Vaughn Grissom, Tyler O’Neill, and Romy Gonzalez to the injured list while Rafael Devers has missed each of the last three games after dealing with discomfort in his left knee earlier this week that eventually required him to be sent for an MRI. If even one of Devers or Casas, the Red Sox would be stretched incredible thin in terms of infield depth, and IL stints for both of the club’s regular corner infielders would leave the club with a patchwork infield involving none of the club’s on-paper starters on the first.
Center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela has taken over at shortstop in recent days following Story’s injury, while Enmanuel Valdez has filled in for Grissom at second base to this point in the season. Bobby Dalbec has filled in for Devers at third base in recent days and has plenty of experience at first that could allow him to replace Casas as needed, leaving the likes of Pablo Reyes and David Hamilton to act as utility infielders off the bench and/or handle the hot corner in Devers’ stead if necessary.
Cotillo also notes that outfielder Rob Refsnyder took reps at first base while rehabbing earlier this season, but the 33-year-old hasn’t appeared on the infield dirt since 2018 and any appearances on the infield would further deplete an outfield mix that has already lost Rafaela to the infield and O’Neill to the injured list. With that being said, depth options such as Dalton Guthrie and Eddy Alvarez are available at the Triple-A level to be called up if necessary, though neither is currently on the 40-man roster and would therefore require a corresponding move to be made in order for Boston to select their respective contracts.
Breslow: Red Sox Aren’t Close On Additional Extensions
After a quiet winter, the Red Sox have made a pair of long-term commitments to key young players. Since the start of Spring Training, Boston has inked starter Brayan Bello and center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela to extensions. On the heels of finalizing an eight-year, $50MM agreement with Rafaela, Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow suggested no other such deals were imminent.
“(It’s) impossible to handicap perfectly what the chances are of getting another deal across the line. I would say, I don’t see anything as particularly close right now,” Breslow told reporters (link via Rob Bradford of WEEI). “I do think it makes sense at some point to focus on the season and give players some clarity around what they’re trying to accomplish every day and give us a chance to kind of assess more broadly what we’re trying to accomplish, what our vision is. So I wouldn’t ever say never, but I think it’s unlikely.”
That’s probably most relevant with regards to first baseman Triston Casas. The former first-round pick has previously indicated that the Sox and his camp at MVP Sports Group have kept up dialogue. Casas reiterated to Bradford on Wednesday that he’s hopeful of remaining in Boston for the long haul, although he said he’s unsure about the current status of negotiations. Casas indicated he’s taking a hands-off approach, telling his representatives that while they’re free to continue discussions during the season, he’s not interested in being updated each time the sides float contract parameters.
In any case, Breslow’s comments imply there’s a gap between the team’s comfort level and the asking price being floated by Casas’ camp. There’s not a ton of urgency. Boston controls the lefty-hitting first baseman through 2028. He won’t be eligible for arbitration for another two seasons. Even if the sides were to table discussions while the season is ongoing, there’d be plenty of time for a new set of negotiations next spring.
Breslow wasn’t specifically addressing the status of negotiations with Casas. Tanner Houck, Jarren Duran and Vaughn Grissom are among other pre-arbitration players whom the Sox could have interest in securing on a long-term deal. Whether they’ve opened discussions with anyone from that group isn’t clear.
Getting the Bello and Rafaela deals done already marks an active spring on the extension front. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the Sox are the only team to extend more than one pre-arbitration player since the start of last offseason. That marks something of a shift in organizational operating procedure. Before this spring, Garrett Whitlock was the only pre-arbitration player to sign an extension with the Red Sox in over a decade.
East Notes: Casas, Cabrera, Marsh
The Red Sox recently signed right-hander Brayan Bello to a six-year, $55MM extension that extends their team control over the youngster by two years. That deal isn’t the only possible extension for a young potential cornerstone that Boston has pursued this winter, however, as first baseman Triston Casas confirmed to reporters that he and the Red Sox have discussed a possible extension as well. At the time, Casas indicated that while he would love to spend his entire career in Boston, the club had yet to present him with anything “enticing” to that point. In the wake of Bello’s extension, Casas recently discussed his own extension negotiations with the Red Sox, as relayed by Alex Speier of the Boston Globe.
In his comments, Casas reiterating that he hopes to play in Boston for “the rest of [his] career” while also providing an update on the discussions he’s had with Red Sox brass. Per Casas, the sides are still talking but there’s been “no numerical values” discussed to this point and that “nothing has really accelerated” to this point. Even as the 24-year-old makes clear he hopes to spend his entire career in Boston, it doesn’t seem as though he feels much urgency to get a deal done anytime soon.
“I think I have a lot of work to do before I feel like I can say I deserve that contract extension to be the long-term first baseman for the Boston Red Sox,” Casas said, as relayed by Speier. “…So if I don’t get that offer, I’m not upset at anybody in the organization. I’m not upset with myself.”
Although Casas claims to have not yet performed at a level that would warrant the extension he’s looking for, he certainly turned in a strong performance in his first full big league season last year. In 132 games with the Red Sox, Casas slashed an impressive .263/.367/.490 (129 wRC+) in 502 trips to the plate. That strong overall performance was bolstered by a torrid second half that saw Casas slash an incredible .317/.417/.617 in 54 games with a 175 wRC+ that was the fifth-best figure among all hitters with at least 200 plate appearances down the stretch, bested by only Shohei Ohtani, Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Mookie Betts. If the sides are unable to come to an agreement this spring, a 2024 campaign that even comes close to resembling his second half last year would surely improve Casas’s earning power considerably.
More from MLB’s East divisions…
- Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera was removed from his start against the Cardinals today before throwing a pitch, with Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald noting that Cabrera experienced a bout of tightness in his right shoulder while warming up for the game. McPherson adds that Cabrera’s removal from the game was precautionary, per Miami, and that Cabrera told reporters a few hours after being removed from the game that he was “already starting to feel better.” While both club and player are indicating that the issue isn’t a particularly severe issue, it’s worth noting that Cabrera was sidelined by a shoulder impingement in June of last year and missed a month of action. Should Cabrera manage to avoid a trip to the injured list to open the season, he figures to Jesus Luzardo and Eury Perez in the rotation. Southpaws A.J. Puk, Trevor Rogers, and Ryan Weathers figure to compete for the final two spots in the club’s rotation, though Braxton Garrett figures to join the rotation once he’s recovered from his own shoulder woes.
- Phillies outfielder Brandon Marsh has yet to appear in a game this spring while rehabbing from arthroscopic knee surgery he underwent in early February. While the initial timeline for his return to action was three-to-four weeks following the surgery, Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer indicates that Marsh is not quite ready to return to game action at this point. Coffey adds that club manager Rob Thomson recently indicated that Marsh is “on track” with regards to his rehab and could get into a Grapefruit League game by the end of the week. Marsh, 26, slashed a strong .277/.372/.458 in 133 games for the Phillies last year and figures to be a regular fixture in the club’s outfield mix this season alongside Nick Castellanos and Johan Rojas.
Red Sox, Triston Casas Have Discussed Possible Extension
2023 was a difficult season for the Red Sox as the club suffered a second consecutive fifth-place finish in the AL East with an identical 78-84 record to their disappointing 2022 campaign. With that being said, rookie first baseman Triston Casas served as a bright spot in the otherwise tough season as he rode a blistering second half to a third place finish in AL Rookie of the Year voting. Prior to the 2023 season, Casas expressed interest in an extension that would keep him in Boston beyond his years of club control, which run through the 2028 season. At the time, he indicated that there had been no such discussions with Red Sox brass, though he struck a different tone in a scrum with reporters (including MLB.com’s Ian Browne) today.
“Of course we have,” Casas told reporters when asked if the sides have talked extension yet. Casas went on to add that while he hopes to stay a member of the Red Sox “forever,” “nothing enticing” had been offered offered to him at this point. Casas decline to get into specifics when asked what sort of contract he would consider, though he noted his goal is a deal that would leave himself and his family “set for the rest of [his] life.”
As a player with just over one year of service time, any extension for Casas would figure to cover his five remaining seasons of team control while also extending Boston’s window of control beyond that. One obvious comp for Casas would be first baseman and former Red Sox prospect Anthony Rizzo, who signed a six-year $40.5MM extension with the Cubs early in the 2013 season that covered the 2014-2019 campaigns. That deal included options and escalators that allowed it to max out at $73MM over eight years. With that being said, there’s several reason to expect Casas to earn significantly more on an extension than Rizzo did. That contract was signed over a decade ago, and while Rizzo was about a year younger at the time of the deal than Casas is now, he had done far less to establish himself as a big league caliber bat.
Entering the 2013 season, Rizzo had hit just .245/.324/.402 in 136 games for his career with an exactly league average wRC+ of 100. Meanwhile, Casas has slashed an impressive .263/.367/.490 (129 wRC+) in 132 games last year and sports a nearly identical 128 wRC+ for his career. While Rizzo’s pedigree as a former top-50 prospect in the sport lent credence to his ability to improve as he entered his mid-twenties, Casas having proved himself as an above-average offensive player in the majors should allow him to earn significantly more even before considering the nearly eleven years of inflation separating the two deals.
So, what sort of deal could make sense for Casas and the Red Sox? Looking at more recent comparisons, Pirates third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes was another former first-round pick entering his second full seasons in the majors when he signed an eight-year, $70MM extension with Pittsburgh two years ago. While Hayes’s ability to offer elite defense at the hot corner gives him a considerably higher floor than Casas (who is generally considered to be a fringy defender at first base), Casas offers significantly more offensive ability than Hayes, who owned a roughly league-average slash line of just .280/.340/.432 (106 wRC+) in the big leagues at the time of his extension. Casas is also a year younger than Hayes was at the time of his extension, meaning he’d hit free agency ahead of his age 29 season if not extended beyond his current club control.
Given Casas’s relative youth and significant offensive talent, an extension in a similar ballpark to Hayes’s extension with the Pirates could make sense in spite of his lack of defensive value. While the Red Sox have indicated that they expect payroll to be lower in 2024 than it was last year, an extension for Casas would figure to hardly put a dent in the club’s books for the 2024 season, as pre-arbitration extensions tend to escalate salaries over the course of the deal. A deal locking up Casas could also allow Boston to have a potential franchise cornerstone in place long-term as the club’s other young players and prospects, such as Marcelo Mayer, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Roman Anthony, begin to reach and establish themselves at the big league level over the next few years.
Gunnar Henderson Wins American League Rookie Of The Year Award
Orioles infielder Gunnar Henderson has won Rookie of the Year for the American League, per an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. Tanner Bibee of the Guardians placed second while Triston Casas of the Red Sox placed third.
Henderson got to make his major league debut last year as a September call-up, just a couple of months after his 21st birthday. Despite his young age, he held himself incredibly well. His 25.8% strikeout rate was a bit above average, but he also drew walks at a 12.1% clip. His .259/.348/.440 batting line last year resulted in a 128 wRC+, indicating he was 28% above league average in that time. That call-up gave him a chance to get a taste of the majors while maintaining rookie status, since he didn’t get to 130 at-bat or 45 days on the roster.
The O’s came into 2023 looking to firmly stamp out their rebuild and make the postseason for the first time since 2016. Henderson’s first full season helped them do just that, as he hit 28 home runs and stole 10 bases. His walk rate dipped to 9%, though that was still above league average. His .259/.348/.440 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 123. He split his time between shortstop and third base, getting strong grades at both positions. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 4.6 wins above replacement while Baseball Reference had him at 6.2. The Orioles, meanwhile, won 101 games and took the top spot in the American League East.
The award is surely gratifying for Henderson and the O’s in and of itself, but there are other implications of this news. The new collective bargaining agreement contains measures designed to combat service time manipulation through the prospect promotion incentive, or PPI. Top-two Rookie of the Year finishers who were Top 100 prospects on at least two preseason lists at Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline are automatically credited with a full service year. That won’t apply to Henderson, who was up all year and earned a full service year regardless, though he was the #1 prospect on all three of those lists.
But players with PPI status can also earn extra draft picks for their clubs if they have less than 60 days of service time to start the season and earn a full service year the traditional way, as Henderson did, while also appearing on those preseason prospect lists. Players in that camp who finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year voting or top three in Cy Young or Most Valuable Player voting during their pre-arbitration seasons earn a bonus pick after the first round for their club. That means the O’s, who are already loaded with young talent, will get a valuable extra pick in next year’s draft.
Bibee and Casas also had strong seasons, but not enough to catch Henderson. The former made 25 starts for the Guards with a 2.98 earned run average, 24.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate. He wasn’t promoted until late April but will earn a full service year by getting second place in this voting. But since he didn’t get that service year the traditional way, the Guards won’t get a bonus draft pick. Casas hit 24 home runs and walked in 13.9% of his plate appearances, leading to a .263/.367/.490 batting line and 129 wRC+. He was in the majors all year, so the voting won’t impact him from a service time perspective, but he falls just shy of getting the Red Sox a bonus pick.
Henderson was a unanimous selection, per the full vote tally from the BBWAA, getting all 30 first-place votes. Bibee got 20 of the second-place votes while Casas got six. Other players receiving votes were Josh Jung of the Rangers, Yainer Diaz of the Astros, Masataka Yoshida of the Red Sox, Edouard Julien of the Twins and Anthony Volpe of the Yankees.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Red Sox Prioritizing Starting Pitching Help
The Red Sox are going into their first offseason with Craig Breslow as chief baseball officer and he is setting his sights on upgrading the club’s rotation, though he isn’t specifying exactly how many pitchers he plans on bringing in. “I think we need to be open-minded,” Breslow said, per Christopher Smith of MassLive. “Starting pitching is certainly a priority for us. But to kind of try and forecast exactly a number or anything kind of more specific than that probably doesn’t make sense.”
It’s not an especially surprising pursuit for the Sox, since the rotation was a weak spot for the club in 2023. Their starters as a whole put up an earned run average of 4.68 for the year, which placed them 22nd out of the 30 clubs in the league. There are some talented names on the roster but each has concerns around health or inconsistency or both, with Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock the candidates for rotation jobs right now.
Sale hardly pitched from 2020 to 2022 due to various injuries. He was able to log 102 2/3 innings in 2023 but with an ERA of 4.30. Pivetta struggled enough to get bumped to the bullpen but finished in good form, whereas Bello was stronger in the first half but faded down the stretch. Crawford had a 4.04 ERA this year with good peripherals, though it’s unclear if that’s sustainable since he’s never been a highly-touted prospect. Houck has shown some potential, but injuries have continually kept him in the range of 100-120 innings. The same is largely true for Whitlock, though he hasn’t even reached 100 frames since 2018.
Though they theoretically have six options for five rotation spots, there are arguments for skepticism with each one. Breslow says that Houck and Whitlock will still be stretched out, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, but they could be pivoted back to the bullpen later. Both pitchers have had better results as relievers, with Houck having an ERA of 2.68 out of the ‘pen and Whitlock a 2.65 in his career, whereas they have starting ERAs of 4.17 and 4.76 respectively. That doesn’t necessarily mean they can’t be effective starters in the future, but it stands to reason that the club might not be willing to bank on them.
Smith adds that the club spoke to the representatives of free agent lefty Jordan Montgomery, though it might be best not to read too much into that. For one, Montgomery is represented by Scott Boras, who also reps a great number of other players. Secondly, Breslow tells Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe that it’s fair to assume they will talk to every agent who represents a starting pitcher and every team that could trade one.
It seems all options are on the table, including players who received a qualifying offer. “It’s a consideration like the host of other variables that you need to consider when you make a decision around these players,” Breslow says in Smith’s report. “So I think we need to look at the totality of the situation in order to figure out how much of a consequence it is for one over another.” Blake Snell, Sonny Gray and Aaron Nola were the three traditional starters to receive QOs, as well as two-way player Shohei Ohtani, who won’t pitch in 2024. Signing one of those players would require the Red Sox to forfeit their second-highest pick in the upcoming draft and $500K of international bonus pool money, but it sounds like that’s not off the table.
Elsewhere, it sounds like the club is leaning towards adding a right-handed hitter who can play second base, though they won’t be strictly limiting themselves in that search. “I think positional versatility helps,” Breslow said, per Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic. “I don’t think it makes a ton of sense to kind of typecast that to a right-handed bat who can only DH. But I think we have to be open-minded about the ways to improve the team. Given that we’re pretty left-handed, it makes sense to set our sights on somebody who can hit right-handed.”
The club’s lineup does indeed skew to the left side, with regular at-bats slated for players like Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, Triston Casas, Masataka Yoshida and Alex Verdugo, though Breslow earlier admitted that Verdugo’s name has come up in trade talks. Some righty bats include Teoscar Hernández and Jorge Soler, though the Sox might be a better fit for a second baseman than an outfielder. The market is fairly limited there but Whit Merrifield and Amed Rosario are a couple of right-handed bats that likely won’t cost much. Speaking of Casas and Duran, who both finished the season on the injured list, Breslow provided updates on the progression of both players to Abraham. Casas has progressed to weight-bearing exercises in his recovery from turf toe surgery. Casas, who was hampered by shoulder inflammation, has healed and is now close to starting a hitting program.
Catcher could theoretically be another place to add but it sounds like the Sox feel good about Connor Wong there. “Very comfortable,” Breslow said about Wong. “We feel good about the catching situation. That’s not to say that we should be closed-minded about opportunities to improve the team. But I think we’re all really happy with him.” Wong got the bulk of the playing time in 2023 and hit just .235/.288/.385 but there were some encouraging defensive grades. It doesn’t sound like an addition here is totally off the table but the pitching is clearly a bigger focus.
Triston Casas Shut Down, Likely Done For The Year
Two days after placing Triston Casas on the IL, the Red Sox have shut down the rookie from baseball activities, the team confirmed to reporters (including Pete Abraham and Alex Speier of The Boston Globe). With only 12 games remaining on the schedule for Boston, this likely marks the end of the young first baseman’s season.
The team is still waiting for MRI results, but they do not yet have any reason to believe the injury is more serious than the initial diagnosis of “right shoulder inflammation.” Still, they are choosing to play things safe with the 23-year-old slugger. While the Red Sox have not been mathematically eliminated, their postseason chances are beyond slim. Sitting 8.5 games back of a Wild Card berth with 12 to play, FanGraphs has their playoff odds below 0.1%. Thus, the club has little need to rush one of their brightest young players back from injury.
If indeed he doesn’t play another game, Casas will finish with 502 plate appearances, giving him just enough to qualify for the batting title. He currently ranks first among qualified AL rookies in OPS and wRC+, although the red-hot Gunnar Henderson could surpass him in either category before the year is up.
Bobby Dalbec started at first base on Sunday in place of Casas, and he is slated to start again this evening. The 28-year-old will have a chance to make a good impression over the next two weeks, as he tries to work his way back into a regular role with the big league club. After a disappointing 2022 season with Boston, he has spent much of 2023 at Triple-A. The righty batter has played well for the Worcester Red Sox (.938 OPS in 114 games) but has been blocked at the MLB level for most of the season.
Red Sox Notes: Casas To IL, Dalbec Recalled, Kluber Shut Down
The Red Sox have placed first baseman Triston Casas on the 10-day IL with right shoulder inflammation, the team announced. In a corresponding move, Bobby Dalbec has been recalled from Triple-A Worcester. In other Red Sox news, starting pitcher Corey Kluber was scratched from his rehab appearance at Triple-A this afternoon. He has been shut down for the remainder of the season, the club revealed to reporters (including Ian Browne of MLB.com).
Casas is in the midst of an excellent rookie campaign, putting up an .856 OPS with 24 home runs. He leads the Red Sox in walk rate and on-base percentage and has been Boston’s best hitter by wRC+. He has been especially hot in the second half, posting a 1.031 OPS since the All-Star break. The 23-year-old is one of only seven AL rookies to qualify for the batting title, and among that group, he ranks first in numerous offensive categories, including OPS, wRC+, and xwOBA. He is likely to earn some down-ballot support for Rookie of the Year, although Gunnar Henderson remains the clear favorite to take home the hardware.
Unfortunately, a sore right shoulder could spell the end of Casas’s season. His IL placement is retroactive to September 15, which means he could return on September 25 at the earliest. By that point, the Red Sox will only have six games remaining, and it’s highly unlikely they’ll be in contention for a Wild Card spot. If Casas returns to full strength, his team would surely love to have him for those final two series, but they have no reason to rush him back.
Taking his place on the active roster will be Dalbec, who has spent most of the 2023 season at Triple-A after a poor major league showing in 2022. Dalbec was phenomenal during a brief cup of coffee in 2020, hitting eight home runs in 23 games. He followed that up with a solid campaign in 2021, posting a .792 OPS and a 106 wRC+ in 133 contests. However, he had a rough time the following year. His OPS fell by more than 100 points and his power seemed to disappear.
Dalbec opened the 2023 season at Triple-A, and he has come up only briefly on a few occasions throughout the year. He has impressive numbers with Worcester – 33 home runs, a .938 OPS, and a 131 wRC+ – although he has underwhelmed in ten games at the major league level, going 2-for-12 with eight strikeouts. The Red Sox will hope he can access his power with the big league club to fill the void in the lineup that Casas left behind.
Kluber was scheduled to make his third rehab appearance at Triple-A on Saturday, but the Red Sox scratched him from the game. He will continue his rehab work at home but will not pitch for Boston again this season. The veteran right-hander has been on the injured list with shoulder inflammation since mid-June.
A two-time Cy Young Award winner, Kluber enjoyed a mini-renaissance with the Rays last season, making 30 starts for the first time since 2018. However, he has struggled tremendously in his age-37 campaign, pitching to a 6.26 ERA in nine starts and a 9.45 ERA in six appearances out of the bullpen. His contract contains an $11MM team option for 2024, although it is highly unlikely the Red Sox will exercise the option.
Triston Casas Has Arrived
Red Sox fans have been waiting roughly a half decade to see whether 2018 first-round pick Triston Casas would eventually become a fixture in the lineup. The hulking 6’4″, 252-pound slugger was selected with the No. 26 overall pick that year and has ranked among baseball’s 100 best prospects in each of the past four offseasons according to both Baseball America and MLB.com.
As recently as this April, however, the early returns were looking questionable. Casas got a cup of coffee last season, hitting five homers and walking at a 20% clip in 95 plate appearances — but also hitting the ball on the ground at a whopping 56.8% clip. Not an ideal trait for a slow-footed slugger. Add in a sluggish start to this season, which saw Casas pare back that ground-ball rate but experience a large uptick in strikeout percentage (30.2% through 96 plate appearances), and it was hardly a promising start. Through his first 192 big league plate appearances, Casas batted .162/.319/.344 with an elite 18.8% walk rate and above-average but not elite power. He fanned in 27.2% of those plate appearances.
In the three and a half months since, however, Casas has not only turned things around — he’s emerged as a genuine middle-of-the-lineup bat — at least against right-handed pitching. In his past 301 trips to the plate, Casas has produced a mammoth .293/.379/.540 output with 16 home runs, 13 doubles and a pair of triples. His walk rate is “down” to 12.3% in that time, and he’s fanned at a 23.6% rate that’s only slightly north of the league average.
The biggest change in Casas’ first couple months of big league experience and this productive stretch has been one of passivity — or rather, lack thereof. From last year’s debut through early May this year, Casas swung at just 62.9% of the pitches he saw within the strike zone (and 40% of pitches overall). During his this streak of mashing at the plate, he’s swinging at 72.2% of pitches in the strike zone and 45.2% of the pitches he sees overall. He’s now swinging at in-zone pitches at a higher-than-average rate (league average is 68.7%) but still swinging at a lower total percentage of pitches than the league-average 47.3%. That’s because Casas is rarely enticed by pitches out of the zone; he’s chased off the plate at just a 25.6% clip — more than six percentage points beneath the 31.8% league average.
As far as the quality of Casas’ contact, it’s been excellent. He was making consistent hard contact even before his early-May turnaround began, but the increased aggression within the strike zone now just means he’s making a lot more of it. Casas has averaged 91.5 mph off the bat this season (league average is 89.1 mph) and put 46.1% of his batted balls in play at 95 mph or more (league average is 39.3%). Statcast has classified 14.5% of his batted balls as “barreled” (16.1% during his peak productivity).
Granted, some of the breakout has been a function of Casas being shielded from left-handed pitching. Casas has clear platoon issues in his young career, hitting just .193/.343/.325 against southpaws versus .257/.357/.503 against righties. This season, he’s 219th in the Majors with just 77 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. The Sox haven’t completely eliminated his playing time against southpaws, but compare his total plate appearances against southpaws to fellow lefty-swinging teammates like Rafael Devers (148 plate appearances), Masataka Yoshida (123) and Alex Verdugo (140) — and it becomes clear that the Sox have at best been selective about the opportunities they’ll give him versus same-handed opposition.
Time will tell whether this year’s usage signals intent for long-term platooning or is just a means of building some confidence in the burgeoning young slugger. If the Sox want to platoon Casas moving forward, there’s at least one natural candidate down on the farm in 28-year-old Bobby Dalbec. Once a fairly heralded prospect himself, Dalbec has been squeezed out of the mix on the big league roster but responded with an outstanding .278/.384/.589 batting line and 30 homers in Triple-A this year. Against left-handed pitching, he’s posted a ludicrous .347/.438/.640 line. Dalbec’s future in Boston — he could potentially be a trade target for a club with eyes on giving him an everyday look this winter — is a topic worth diving into on its own, but suffice it to say he’s at least played his way into consideration for such a role. If not, the free agent market this offseason will feature right-handed bats like Garrett Cooper, C.J. Cron, Donovan Solano and Darin Ruf.
The Sox started Casas against southpaw MacKenzie Gore last night and left him in to face lefty reliever Jose Ferrer. (Casas went 1-for-3, singling off Ferrer.) It’s probably in their best interest to continue giving Casas opportunities against southpaws down the stretch, both to get him additional experience in left-on-left matchups and to help evaluate whether they’ll need a platoon partner for him in the long run.
Casas is still a work in progress defensively (-4 Defensive Runs Saved, -11 Outs Above Average), and it’s an open question just how productive he’ll end up being against left-handed pitching. If he can narrow his platoon splits and/or make some strides on the defensive side of his game, he has star potential in the middle of the Red Sox lineup. He already looks the part against right-handed pitching, however, and Casas’ dedication to the science of hitting (check out his recent Q&A with FanGraphs’ David Laurila) should serve him well as he looks to become a more complete hitter.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.