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Xander Bogaerts

Red Sox Notes: Deadline, Bogaerts, Devers, Bell

By Mark Polishuk | July 28, 2022 at 4:31pm CDT

“We’re trying to make the postseason,” Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told NESN’s Tom Caron prior to Tuesday’s game (hat tip to MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith).  This declaration, made a week prior to the trade deadline, seemingly ended some speculation that the Red Sox would look to be deadline sellers, though Bloom did couch his statement with some intriguing caveats: “So whatever that means, we’re going to explore a lot of stuff [at the trade deadline].  Some of them might be things people expect.  Some of them might not be.  But you know, we want to get this group into the postseason.”

It is worth noting that the Sox lost to the Guardians on both Tuesday and Wednesday, dropping Boston’s record to 49-50 for the season.  With a 7-19 mark over their last 26 games, the Red Sox have gone from leading the wild card race to four games out of a wild card slot altogether, and in last place in the competitive AL East.

If Boston can’t string some wins together quickly, it is possible the Sox could turn into more full-fledged sell mode by the August 2 deadline.  However, Bloom’s comments seem to hint that the team could try to thread the needle and both buy and sell at the same time — perhaps moving some pending free agents, but adding longer-term pieces that could also still provide some immediate help.

Beyond Bloom’s public comments, The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes that when it comes to deadline plans, “typical responses from those inside and outside the organization have ranged from ’it’s all in play’ to ’maybe both’ to objections to the buy/sell dichotomy to shrugs of uncertainty.”  Despite all of these options, a truly big shakeup doesn’t appear to be in order, as both Bloom and (in an interview on WEEI’s The Greg Hill Show) team president/CEO Sam Kennedy each ruled out the possibility of Xander Bogaerts or Rafael Devers being dealt.

“There’s been no discussions or commentary internally or externally about moves related to the trade deadline involving Xander, Raffy, or anyone else to my knowledge.  At this point, we’re focused on getting back in this thing and winning,” Kennedy said.  Not only have talks about the two All-Stars not taken place, “we don’t plan to” hold such talks, Bloom added.

Bogaerts can opt out of his contract following the season, and ever since Boston signed Trevor Story to a free agent deal, there has been widespread feeling that Bogaerts will be playing elsewhere in 2023.  Extension talks with both Bogaerts and Devers prior to the season didn’t result in any progress, which then led to increased speculation about Devers also perhaps leaving in free agency following the 2023 campaign.

If a teardown isn’t in order, and standing pat doesn’t appear to be an option for a team with clear roster needs, it then becomes a question of what types of upgrades the Red Sox will pursue by August 2.  One obvious name on paper doesn’t appear to be a priority, as NBC Sports Boston’s John Tomase reports that the Sox have had only “cursory interest” in Nationals first baseman Josh Bell.  While the Sox have had some talks about Bell, “their interest was described more as kicking the tires.”

First base has been a weak link for the Red Sox all year long, and since Bell is perhaps the likeliest player to be moved prior to the deadline, the two sides seemed like a logical match.  Bell would be a pure rental, as the slugger is set for free agency after the year, and the Nats would be in line to recoup a compensatory pick if Bell left given that the qualifying offer system will again be in place for the 2022-23 offseason.

Anything the Sox or other teams offer the Nationals for Bell, therefore, would have to top the value of that compensatory pick for Washington to go ahead with a deal.  For a team like the Red Sox that is perhaps on the fringes of contending, that could be too much of a price to pay, whereas other known Bell suitors like the Astros, Mets, or Brewers could be more amenable since Bell would increase their chances of winning a championship.

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Red Sox Reportedly Listening To Offers For J.D. Martinez

By Steve Adams | July 26, 2022 at 3:08pm CDT

As the Red Sox continue to flounder through the month of July, there are increasing levels of speculation that Boston could sell off some short-term veterans — even if they continue to opportunistically look to add longer-term pieces who’ll help in 2023 and beyond. To that end, ESPN’s Buster Olney said on today’s Baseball Tonight podcast that designated hitter J.D. Martinez “is out in the trade market.” Boston was recently swept by the division-rival Blue Jays, dropping them to 17 games back in the AL East and three back in the Wild Card chase.

The 34-year-old Martinez (35 next month) would immediately become one of the best bets on the market if the Sox indeed do intend to trade him within the next week. Fresh off his fifth career All-Star appearance, Martinez remains a standout bat, hitting .302/.368/.481 with nine homers on the season. He may not be the 45-homer threat he was at his 2017-18 peak, but Martinez’s 8.7% walk rate and 23.6% strikeout rate are both right in line with his career levels, and he’s been 36% better than league-average at the plate by measure of wRC+.

Martinez is in the final season of a frontloaded five-year, $110MM contract that calls for a $19.375MM salary for the current season. He’s still owed about $7.55MM of that salary between now and season’s end, as of this writing, but for a hitter of his caliber it’s a generally reasonable rate of pay.

The extent to which the Red Sox are attempting to move Martinez isn’t yet known. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom typically takes an open-minded approach to the trade deadline and offseason alike, so it’s certainly feasible that he’s simply entertaining offers from other clubs. At the same time, if the Sox have determined that they don’t want to make a qualifying offer to Martinez at what will likely be a comparable rate to his current salary, they could more aggressively contact other clubs and try to initiate negotiations themselves.

Making Martinez available would obviously bring about further questions regarding the Sox’ roster. If they’re willing to move Martinez, it stands to reason that other clubs would inquire about the team’s other slate of pending free agents, at the very least. Nathan Eovaldi would quickly become the top name on the rental market for starting pitchers, and the Sox also have catcher Christian Vazquez, starters Michael Wacha and Rich Hill, utilityman Enrique Hernandez and reliever Matt Strahm set to reach free agency this winter.

Wacha, Hill, Strahm and Hernandez are all on the injured list at the moment, but all four are progressing toward returns (Twitter link via MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo). Hill is slated for a rehab assignment beginning tomorrow, while Wacha recently threw a simulated game. Strahm is only on the IL due to a wrist contusion (the All-Star break likely contributed to the factor to place him on the IL at all). Hernandez will be swinging a bat by the end of the week.

Of course, those players may not be considered quite as “easy” to replace as Martinez. While there’s no Martinez-level bat readily available to take his place, the Sox do have top prospect Triston Casas in Triple-A. Bobby Dalbec is playing third base right now with Rafael Devers on the injured list but could get a look at DH — or the Sox could simply use the designated hitter slot as a means of rotation their regulars and keeping them fresh down the stretch.

While a brief rental of a designated hitter might not generally be expected to produce a significant return, it at least bears mentioning that the Twins were able to pry minor league right-handers Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman from the Rays in last summer’s Nelson Cruz trade. Ryan, then an upper-level starter who’d recently pitched for Team USA in the Olympics, quickly found his way to the big leagues and has been Minnesota’s best starter since last September’s debut. That’ll likely be seen as the gold standard for rental trades of this nature for some time, however, and it’s not necessarily reasonable to expect the Red Sox — or any team — to pull off a return of that quality in exchange for a rental bat.

Obviously any talk of the Red Sox trading rental players will bring about speculation regarding shortstop Xander Bogaerts, who can and almost certainly will opt out of the final three years and $60MM remaining on his contract at season’s end. Bogaerts, however, has full no-trade protection under that contract. Paired with the opt-out provision on the deal, that makes a trade involving him a difficult (albeit not impossible) one to envision. ESPN’s Jeff Passan noted this morning that other teams expect Bogaerts to remain put even if Boston sells off other short-term pieces.

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Boston Red Sox Newsstand Christian Vazquez Enrique Hernandez J.D. Martinez Matt Strahm Michael Wacha Nathan Eovaldi Rich Hill Xander Bogaerts

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Cubs, Phillies Expected To Pursue Marquee Shortstops This Offseason

By Darragh McDonald | June 5, 2022 at 11:05pm CDT

The most recent offseason featured a huge crop of star free agents, with the five top-tier shortstops being one of the most exciting elements, as Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien, Javier Baez and Trevor Story all reached the open market at the same time. In about five months’ time, another offseason will begin, and though the crop of available shortstops won’t be quite as strong, it still has the potential to be noteworthy.

MLBTR recently released its first Free Agent Power Rankings for the upcoming winter, and although red-hot outfielder Aaron Judge nabbed the top spot, he was followed by three shortstops in the 2, 3 and 4 slots: Carlos Correa, Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts. (Correa and Bogaerts both have opt-outs that they are expected to trigger.) In today’s column from Bob Nightengale of USA Today, he reports that the Cubs could be big spenders this winter, naming those three shortstops as their primary targets. “I guarantee you they’re going to get one of them,” an unnamed veteran general manager tells Nightengale, who also says that several executives are predicting the Phillies to be sitting at this table as well.

Cubs manager David Ross recently spoke about letting Nico Hoerner serve as the team’s primary shortstop for the remainder of the year, though he’s also spent a decent amount of time at second base, as well as occasionally lining up at third base and in the outfield. It seems the club may be leaning towards a big addition at shortstop and bumping Hoerner over to second base next year.

After a big trade deadline fire sale in 2021, the Cubs were expected to have a fairly quiet offseason this past winter. However, they surprised many people by making a few somewhat aggressive moves. They didn’t land any of the big five shortstops, though they did give out multi-year deals to Seiya Suzuki, Marcus Stroman and Yan Gomes.

The club is currently sporting a record of 23-31, six games back of the final playoff spot. There’s still time for them to gain some ground, though it’s also possible they go into the trade deadline as sellers this year. But regardless of how they fare for the remainder of this season, they should have spending power this winter. Suzuki is the only player currently under contract for the 2025 season, although the Cubs also have a $7MM club option for David Bote that year. Stroman’s contract runs through 2024, though he can opt out after the 2023 season. Kyle Hendricks and Yan Gomes could also be free agents after 2023, as they have options for 2024.

In short, there’s not a lot preventing the club from making a big splash this winter if they want to. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the team ran out Opening Day payrolls in the vicinity of $200MM from 2016 to 2019, but got that number below $150MM last year and this year. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource pegs their 2023 payroll at $94MM at the moment, then just $50MM in 2024 and $20MM in 2025. Arbitration-eligible players will add to those numbers, but not by a lot. If they want to be aggressive in getting out of this rebuild/retool/whatever period, the opportunity is there.

The Phillies, however, are in a very different situation. They had a very aggressive offseason, giving out big contracts to both Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber, pushing the club beyond the luxury tax line for the first time. Despite that aggressiveness, they’ve struggled over the first third of the season, going into today’s action with a record of 24-29, 4 1/2 games behind the Giants for the final NL Wild Card spot.

There was some speculation that they would dive into the shortstop sweepstakes this past winter, though they ultimately decided to stick with the in-house options of Didi Gregorius and prospect Bryson Stott. Gregorius is currently on the IL due to a sprained knee, but was performing okay before that. His .288/.338/.356 line amounts to a 97 wRC+, slightly below league average but much better than the 68 wRC+ he had last year. Regardless, he’s a free agent after this year, giving the club an opening next year. Stott could theoretically fill that void, though he’s struggled in his first taste of MLB action. Through 27 games, he’s hitting just .157/.222/.217 for a wRC+ of just 26. If the Phils were to go out and nab a big fish in free agency, Stott could spend more time in the minors or perhaps shift over to another infield position to try and force his way into the lineup, having played some second and third base as well.

Despite getting into luxury tax territory this year, the club should be able to be aggressive again next winter with many contracts coming off the books. Martinez puts their 2023 payroll at $129MM, well shy of this year’s $232MM, though that doesn’t include a $17MM option for Jean Segura, the $16MM option for Aaron Nola or salaries for arbitration-eligible players, including Rhys Hoskins. Regardless of whether they can turn their 2022 season around, it seems they may keep their foot on the gas pedal going forward, as they look to snap a postseason drought that goes back to 2011.

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Red Sox Notes: Martinez, Bogaerts, Vazquez, Sale, Paxton

By Steve Adams and Anthony Franco | May 17, 2022 at 10:21pm CDT

J.D. Martinez’s five-year, $110MM deal with the Red Sox is up at season’s end, and the slugger again made clear this weekend that he’d love to return (link via Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe). “Would I love to stay here?” Martinez asked rhetorically. “Yeah. I’ve expressed that to ownership.” Martinez added that he told the Sox he was “really open” to an extension as far back as the 2019-20 offseason. However, he also acknowledged that, as far as contract talks are concerned, “nothing has really happened since I got here.” Martinez further noted that if a Boston reunion isn’t in the cards, he’s at least excited to have a wider range of potential suitors thanks to the advent of the universal designated hitter.

While many nine-figure free agent deals prove regrettable by the time they draw to a close, Martinez has been a mostly sound investment for the Sox. Although he struggled in the shortened 2020 season, he boasts an overall .298/.369/.548 batting line with 118 home runs through 2296 plate appearances since signing his deal. That includes a huge .321/.370/.541 line (164 wRC+) to begin the 2022 campaign. Martinez will turn 35 in August, but his bat isn’t showing many signs of slowing down even as he enters his mid-30s. Boston has about $92.5MM in guaranteed money on the books in 2023, but $20MM of that is allocated to Xander Bogaerts, who is all but a lock to exercise an opt-out in his contract (barring an extension).

More out of Boston…

  • While Bogaerts is almost certainly ticketed for the open market at the end of the season, the star shortstop left open the possibility of in-season extension talks over the weekend. His agent Scott Boras downplayed those chances, telling Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe (Twitter link) that extension talks with the Sox won’t take place during the regular season. Whether behind-the-scenes discussions take place or not, it has never seemed likely the sides will come to an agreement after they were extremely far apart in Spring Training. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported last month that Boston had offered an additional one year and $30MM to convince Bogaerts to forego his opt-out possibility. That’s well shy of the three-time All-Star’s likely market value, and Bogaerts implied over the weekend the team would have to significantly raise their offer were they to try to reignite talks. “I don’t know how this would work,” he said.”But if they talk to Scott behind closed doors and it’s something that’s fair, he can come to me. We’ll see how that goes.
  • The Red Sox “were quietly shopping” Christian Vazquez over the winter but (obviously) never lined up with a potential trade partner, writes Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic in her latest mailbag column. Boston exercised a $7MM club option on the 32-year-old catcher at the end of the 2021 season but was also reported to be heavily in the mix for Pirates catcher Jacob Stallings over the winter — before he was ultimately instead traded to Miami. Vazquez slugged 23 homers in the “juiced ball” season in 2019 and had a stronger 2020 campaign (on a rate basis). However, he’s struggled to a .252/.302/.344 output in 583 subsequent plate appearances (2022 included). McCaffrey suggests that if the Sox don’t right the ship, Vazquez could again be a trade candidate this summer, which would leave prospect Connor Wong and veteran Kevin Plawecki as the team’s primary catchers. Of course, Plawecki himself is a free agent at season’s end and could change hands in such a scenario — assuming he can bounce back from the dreadful .139/.179/.167 slash he’s posted through his first 40 plate appearances.
  • Injured Sox ace Chris Sale, who is on the 60-day IL with a stress fracture in his rib cage, has been cleared to begin throwing and is playing catch, tweets Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. At last check, Sale wasn’t throwing and was dealing with a non-baseball, non-Covid related medical issue, but it seems he’s put that past him and is officially progressing toward a return to the mound. The seven-time All-Star has thrown just 42 2/3 innings since the conclusion of the 2019 season, primarily due to Tommy John surgery. Speier also notes that fellow southpaw James Paxton is still receiving treatment and has yet to begin throwing as he works back from 2021 Tommy John surgery. The Sox announced earlier this month that Paxton was dealing with continued soreness in his elbow.
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Boston Red Sox Notes Chris Sale J.D. Martinez James Paxton Xander Bogaerts

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Xander Bogaerts Open To In-Season Extension Talks

By Mark Polishuk | May 15, 2022 at 10:44pm CDT

Negotiations on a new contract extension between Xander Bogaerts and the Red Sox didn’t result in a deal prior to Opening Day, and at the time, Bogaerts implied that the opener was an unofficial deadline.  “I’ve got a season coming up in front of me and I don’t want to put any of our teammates in that type of distraction,” Bogaerts said. “They don’t deserve it.  We had time to get something done. It didn’t work out.”

Now, Bogaerts has left the door slightly open for more talks during the season, telling The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham that “I don’t know how this would work. But if they talk to [agent Scott Boras] behind closed doors and it’s something that’s fair, he can come to me.  We’ll see how that goes.”

Most players set Opening Day as the endpoint for any contract negotiations, echoing Bogaerts’ point that once games begin, the focus is solely on baseball.  (Even in Bogaerts’ proposed scenario, he would himself seemingly have no role in active talks.)  Most extensions that are announced during the season tend to be announced perhaps within the first few weeks, indicating that the two sides had things mostly finalized aside from a few small details.

That said, it isn’t uncommon for extensions to be struck during the season.  2021 alone saw multiple deals finalized well into the year, including extensions involving the Red Sox (their two-year pact with Matt Barnes) and another Boras Corporation client (Jonathan Schoop, who inked a new deal to stay with the Tigers).  However, all of those extensions were for significantly shorter terms and for less money than what Bogaerts is undoubtedly looking for in a new contract.

Bogaerts is already under contract via a prior six-year, $120MM extension signed in April 2019.  The shortstop can opt out of that deal after the season, leaving behind the $60MM he is guaranteed between 2023-25 plus a $20MM vesting option for 2026.  There is little doubt that Bogaerts will indeed opt out and hit the open market, as entering his age-30 season, the three-time All-Star could triple the $60MM he’d be leaving on the table in Boston given how this past offseason raised the bar for shortstop contracts.

With the larger shortstop market in mind, perhaps the key point in Bogaerts’ quote is “something that’s fair.”  Reports have suggested that the Red Sox made a curiously low offer to Bogaerts’ camp, with the team proposing to extend the term by just one guaranteed year — Bogaerts would earn around $30MM for the 2026 season, and still be paid $20MM for each of the next three seasons.  Boston’s proposal apparently didn’t get a response from Bogaerts and his reps, and one friend of Bogaerts described the offer as “a slap in the face.”

It could be that the Red Sox were simply starting low as a negotiating tactic, and as Abraham notes, team president Sam Kennedy and chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom have said that the Sox want to retain both Bogaerts and Rafael Devers (who is a free agent after the 2023 season).  That said, the Red Sox also signed Trevor Story to a big six-year, $140MM free agent deal, and the team has one of the game’s top shortstop prospects in Marcelo Mayer.  Between Story, Mayer, and the lowball offer, it would seem like the Sox are already preparing themselves for life beyond Bogaerts, unless he happened to take that below-market extension.

While Boras has a reputation for pushing his clients towards free agency, several high-profile Boras Corporation clients have indeed signed extensions over the years — even Bogaerts himself re-upped with the Sox entering his final year under team control.  Of those deals, however, Stephen Strasburg’s 2016 extension with the Nationals is the only big-money, multi-year pact signed in-season, and Strasburg and the Nats were much closer in talks than Bogaerts and the Sox seem to be at this point.

With Bogaerts this close to the open market, it would seem like the Red Sox would have to (if anything) overpay to prevent him from opting out.  The other factor involved is Boston’s mediocre start to the 2022 season, as with only a 13-21 record thus far, there has already been whispers that Bogaerts could be a deadline trade chip rather than a future cornerstone.  If the Red Sox continue to struggle and lean towards becoming deadline sellers, it could be that the Sox might take the approach of revisiting extension talks with Bogaerts around the All-Star break, and if a deal can’t be struck, the team would then focus on trading him.

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Red Sox, Bogaerts/Devers Were Far Apart In Spring Extension Talks

By Anthony Franco | April 13, 2022 at 10:54pm CDT

In the days leading up to the start of the regular season, the Red Sox had extension discussions with star infielders Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers. The team didn’t reach a long-term deal with either player, and it’s not believed they want to continue negotiations during the season.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post now sheds more light on the respective talks, characterizing the sides as being $100MM or more apart in both instances. Heyman reports that Boston offered Bogaerts around $90MM over four seasons. Boston’s offer to Devers isn’t clear, but Heyman suggests there was a rather notable gap on the length of the commitment, with the young star seeking a much longer guarantee than the team put on the table.

Bogaerts’ and Devers’ situations aren’t analogous, so it’s worth considering them separately. The excellent shortstop is the more immediate concern, as Boagerts can reach free agency at the end of this season. The right-handed hitter is signed for $20MM annually between 2023-25, but he can opt out of the final three years on his deal at the end of this season. According to Heyman, the Red Sox offered to tack on around $30MM in 2026 while keeping his salaries for the next three years the same.

It’s no surprise that wasn’t an appealing proposition for the three-time All-Star. He’s just six months away from having a chance to test the open market in advance of his age-30 season. Bogaerts wouldn’t receive the kind of decade-long commitment the younger Corey Seager did, but he could be in position for a deal of seven or even eight years if he performs as expected in 2022.

This offseason, the Rockies signed Kris Bryant to a seven-year deal worth $182MM heading into his age-30 campaign. The Rangers signed Marcus Semien for seven years and $175MM for his age-31 through age-37 seasons. Trevor Story and Javier Báez — each of whom was headed into their age-29 seasons — inked six-year pacts worth $140MM with opt-out opportunities.

It’s fair for Bogaerts and his representatives at the Boras Corporation to argue for a deal that tops all those contracts. Going back to the start of 2019, the four-time Silver Slugger Award winner owns a .302/.375/.523 slash line that translates to a 135 wRC+ (indicating offensive production 35 percentage points above the league average). That’s much better than the respective marks for each of Bryant (123), Semien (128), Story (113) and Báez (104). Bogaerts also has the edge if one looks back two seasons, while Semien was similarly productive last year.

A deal matching Semien’s $25MM average annual value that takes Bogaerts through his age-37 campaign would pay him $200MM over eight seasons. He’ll need a typically strong platform year to land that kind of money on the open market, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility. Bogaerts isn’t the caliber of defender that Semien, Story or Báez are, but he has a longer track record of offensive excellence than any of those players.

Of course, it’s possible that Bogaerts gets injured or underperforms in 2022. In that instance, the remaining $60MM on his deal affords him plenty of security, since he could elect not to opt out. (The deal also contains a $20MM vesting option for 2026). Forgoing an opportunity at $175MM — $200+MM to raise the floor of his existing contract from $60MM to $90MM isn’t a particularly appealing concept. Heyman writes that Bogaerts’ camp decided not to make a counteroffer, with a friend of Bogaerts calling the team’s proposal “a slap in the face.”

Nothing prevents the Sox from upping their offer after the season if Bogaerts tests the open market, and they’d presumably have to do so significantly to keep him in the fold. Whether they’ll have interest remains to be seen, but Boston signed Story to the aforementioned $140MM deal this past offseason. Story was a career-long shortstop with the Rockies, and while he moved to second base in deference to Bogaerts, the Sox could kick him back to his old position next year. Boston has one of the game’s top second base prospects, Nick Yorke, at High-A. Former top prospect Jeter Downs is coming off a rough season in Triple-A but was nevertheless added to the 40-man roster last November.

That could be a precursor to Bogaerts’ eventual departure, but chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom tells Heyman the Story signing “doesn’t change our desire to keep” Bogaerts and Devers. He added “we’re hopeful we can keep both guys,” but declined to discuss the specifics of the team’s offers.

Unlike Bogaerts, the team can unilaterally keep Devers around in 2023. The slugging third baseman is arbitration-eligible once more next winter, when he’ll be due a raise on this year’s $11.2MM salary. With notable earnings already in the bank, Devers shouldn’t have much financial pressure to accept a team-friendly deal. He’s coming off his first All-Star campaign and Silver Slugger after hitting .279/.352/.538 with 38 home runs.

Devers, who debuted in the big leagues as a 20-year-old, is on track to reach free agency in advance of his age-27 campaign. He’ll face some questions about his ability to stick at the hot corner over the long haul given his subpar defensive metrics, but there’s little doubt about his offensive capability. Devers ranks 28th in wRC+ among 159 hitters with 1000+ plate appearances over the past three seasons, with his .290/.350/.537 line translating to a 129 mark.

The Red Sox, it should be noted, have plenty of long-term payroll flexibility. Until last month’s Story pickup, Bloom and his staff had shied away from making free agent splashes since he was hired in October 2019. Boston opened this season with a payroll in the $220MM range, but they’d have just $72MM in 2023 guaranteed commitments (before accounting for arbitration) if Bogaerts opts out. That number would drop to about $57MM in 2024, with Story and Chris Sale the only significant expenditures that year. (Sale himself can opt out after this season, but he looks less likely to do so after his last three years have been dampened by injuries). That sets up some interesting decisions for the front office around which players they’d like to build over the long haul.

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Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts Unlikely To Sign Extensions With Red Sox Before Opening Day

By Anthony Franco | April 7, 2022 at 2:18pm CDT

APRIL 7: In a press conference this afternoon, Bogaerts made clear that negotiations on a contract extension have stalled and that he doesn’t intend to sign a new deal before tomorrow’s opener in New York (first reported by Chris Cotillo of MassLive; Twitter link). Asked whether he would agree to an extension, he replied simply: “No.” Asked subsequently whether an offer was made, he responded, “Yeah. But it didn’t work out, and we’ll see how it goes from there.”

The shortstop also appeared to rule out the possibility of in-season negotiation, adding, “I can’t do nothing about it right now. I’ve got a season coming up in front of me and I don’t want to put any of our teammates in that type of distraction. They don’t deserve it. We had time to get something done. It didn’t work out.”

As noted below, Bogaerts can opt out of the three years and $60MM that remain on his contract at the end of the 2022 season. He’d be entering a potentially crowded shortstop market that will likely include Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, Elvis Andrus, and Didi Gregorius, as well as Carlos Correa should he (as expected) opt out of the final two years of his deal with the Twins. He’d nonetheless be a near-certainty to top his remaining guarantee so long as he remains healthy and maintains his recent production.

APRIL 6: Red Sox star third baseman Rafael Devers recently rejected an extension offer from the team, reports Héctor Gómez of Z101 (Twitter link). Gómez adds that Boston’s offer to Devers topped the $124MM deal José Ramírez signed with the Guardians. Further specifics of the offer aren’t known, but Chris Cotillo of MassLive characterizes the sides as being “very far” apart.

Both Gómez and Cotillo suggest it’s unlikely there’ll be any more discussions before the Red Sox open the season on Friday against the Yankees. Devers has previously suggested he won’t entertain an extension in-season. That seemingly sets him up to play out this season on an $11.2MM salary, to which he and the Sox agreed last month to avoid an arbitration hearing.

It stands to reason the Boston front office will take a crack at extending Devers next winter, at the very least. He’s controllable via arbitration for another season beyond this one. By next offseason, the reigning AL Silver Slugger at third base will have banked over $16MM in career earnings. Barring a significant injury, he’ll be in line for a rather notable raise on this season’s salary during his final arbitration year before hitting free agency in advance of his age-27 campaign.

That’s all to say Devers has little pressure to accept a significant discount. The Red Sox certainly won’t put forth a market-value offer two years in advance of free agency, but keeping him in the fold long-term would require one of the biggest investments in the history of that service bucket. The Braves signed first baseman Matt Olson — who also has four-plus service years — to an eight-year, $168MM extension last month. Only Joey Votto (ten years, $225MM) and Giancarlo Stanton (13 years, $325MM) have topped Olson’s deal among players with between four and five years of service.

Olson was projected for a $12MM arbitration salary before signing his extension, not too dissimilar from Devers’ current mark. He and Devers have family similar numbers going back three seasons. Olson owns a .257/.354/.522 line since the start of 2019; Devers is a .290/.350/.537 hitter in that time. The latter hits for a better average, while Olson draws significantly more walks. Olson has been 34 percentage points above average by measure of wRC+, while Devers checks in 29 points above par.

Obviously, Olson and Devers don’t make for an apples-to-apples comparison. Devers plays a more demanding position, but he rates as one of the league’s worst defensive third basemen. Olson plays at the position furthest down the defensive spectrum, but he’s perhaps the game’s best gloveman at first base. One could argue that Olson’s the more valuable all-around player, but Devers is two and a half years younger. Devers’ camp at Rep 1 Baseball may argue for a deal that exceeds Olson’s in length and overall guarantee, making it unsurprising that “merely” topping the $124MM guaranteed to Ramírez wouldn’t be sufficient. (To be clear, it’s unknown how close the Red Sox’s offer to Devers was to Ramírez’s number).

Regardless of whether Boston and Devers eventually work something out long-term, he’ll be around for the next two seasons. That’s not necessarily the case for shortstop Xander Bogaerts, who can opt out of the remaining three years and $60MM on his deal after this season. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe spoke with Boagerts on Monday. The star shortstop told Speier he and the club have had talks this spring but said he didn’t anticipate an extension being hammered out in the coming days. Like Devers, Bogaerts suggested he was uninterested in continuing negotiations once the season was underway.

Bogaerts would hit the open market in advance of his age-30 season and seems likely to handily top $60MM barring an unexpected downturn in performance or injury. The Sox added an All-Star potential alternative last month when they signed Trevor Story to a six-year, $140MM deal. The longtime Rockie agreed to play second base this season in deference to Boagerts. Boston could keep him at the keystone if they get a long-term deal with Bogaerts done, but Story could also kick back to his old position in 2023 if the Sox’s incumbent shortstop heads elsewhere.

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Red Sox Notes: Free Agency, Bogaerts, Payroll

By Anthony Franco | March 15, 2022 at 10:01pm CDT

The Red Sox have signed five free agent pitchers — Michael Wacha, James Paxton, Rich Hill, Matt Strahm and Jake Diekman — so far this winter. Their only meaningful change on the position player front, though, was arguably a downgrade in 2022. An hour before the lockout, Boston traded Hunter Renfroe to the Brewers in a deal that brought Jackie Bradley Jr. back to Fenway Park.

While the Sox have yet to pull off a meaningful upgrade to their position player mix, they’ve been at least loosely tied to a few of free agency’s top names. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network suggested this morning they could be in the mix for Freddie Freeman. They’re reportedly among the teams in the running for star NPB outfielder Seiya Suzuki. Before the lockout, reports tied them to each of Carlos Correa and Trevor Story.

There are myriad possibilities the Boston front office could pursue, a fact chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom acknowledged when speaking with reporters yesterday (via Jen McCaffrey of the Athletic). “We talked about this before the lockout … that we do still want to add position players to the group,” Bloom said. “The (Renfroe) trade we made on December 1 kind of flipped our lineup balance a little bit to where we have an opening for a right-handed bat. That said, in this period, especially with so much going on and so many conversations, we want to be nimble enough to take advantage of all opportunities.”

Bloom declined to specify an area of positional target, pointing to the flexibility Enrique Hernández affords the club with his ability to capably man both center field and second base. That’s been reinforced by the wide array of players they’ve reportedly inquired about, but their ties to the top two free agent shortstops are made more difficult by the presence of their All-Star in-house option there.

Speaking with reporters (including Christopher Smith of MassLive) this afternoon, Xander Bogaerts didn’t sound enamored with the possibility of changing positions to accommodate an external addition. “I’m a shortstop, man. That’s where I’ve played my whole career and obviously a position I take a lot of pride in,” the 29-year-old said. “I love being there.” Bogaerts said he and the team haven’t broached the possibility of a position change.

If Bogaerts remains steadfastly against moving off shortstop, that’d complicate any efforts by the Red Sox to make a legitimate push for Correa or Story. Correa is one of the game’s preeminent defenders at the position, coming off a Gold Glove winning campaign. Story is reportedly intent on signing with a team that’ll keep him at shortstop. It seems unlikely at this point that either will sign with a team that’s unwilling to make space for them at the infield’s most demanding position.

Unlike Correa or Story, Bogaerts doesn’t have the freedom to choose a team for 2022. Yet he will have the option of testing the open market next offseason, as he can opt out of the final three years and $60MM on his deal at the end of this season. Given how well he’s played in recent seasons, he’s certainly on a path towards triggering the opt-out, leaving Bloom and his staff to determine whether they want earmark some future funds away for a potential extension. (Star third baseman Rafael Devers is down to his final two years of arbitration control as well).

The Red Sox should have plenty of long-term flexibility, however. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource projects their luxury tax payroll for the 2022 season at $213MM, a fair bit shy of the $230MM base tax threshold. Looking ahead to 2023, a wide swath of post-2022 free agents and a potential Bogaerts opt-out could see that number plummet to just $60MM, leaving plenty of spots to be filled on the team’s active roster and a huge amount of funds with which to fill them. Bloom acknowledged as much, teasing that future financial flexibility “opens more options for us, maybe (more) than we’ve been working with the last couple years.”

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Red Sox To Activate Xander Bogaerts From Injured List

By Anthony Franco | September 10, 2021 at 3:24pm CDT

The Red Sox are planning to activate star shortstop Xander Bogaerts from the COVID-19 injured list before this evening’s game against the White Sox, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive (Twitter link). He has been out since testing positive for the virus on August 31.

Boston has held their own in Bogaerts’ absence, going 5-4 over that nine-game stretch. Bogaerts was one of ten Red Sox players to test positive as the virus has spread throughout the clubhouse. While he and Kiké Hernández have now made it back to action, a good portion of the roster remains on the virus-related IL. Indeed, that spread continued to impact the club as recently as this afternoon, when it was announced that ace Chris Sale tested positive.

Bogaerts is arguably the most important player the Red Sox were without during their outbreak. The three-time All-Star has a fantastic .298/.366/.501 line over 519 plate appearances this season, making him one of the more valuable position players in the league. He returns at a time when the Sox hold a one-game advantage over the Yankees for the American League’s top Wild Card spot, with the Blue Jays just half a game behind New York.

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Xander Bogaerts Tests Positive For COVID-19

By Anthony Franco | August 31, 2021 at 7:29pm CDT

Red Sox star Xander Bogaerts has tested positive for COVID-19, the team informed reporters (including Chris Cotillo of MassLive). He was removed in the second inning of this evening’s game after the team became aware of the result. Bogaerts becomes the sixth Boston player to test positive in recent days. He’ll join Kiké Hernández, Christian Arroyo, Martín Pérez, Matt Barnes, Hirokazu Sawamura and Josh Taylor (who is in isolation as a close contact) on the COVID IL.

None of those losses will be tougher to overcome than that of Bogaerts, who is among the sport’s best overall performers. The 28-year-old shortstop has a fantastic .298/.366/.501 line with twenty home runs over 519 plate appearances this summer. That showing earned Bogaerts his third career All-Star selection. By FanGraphs’ version of wins above replacement, Bogaerts ranks as the game’s thirteenth most valuable position player this season.

When Bogaerts departed, the Sox slid Jonathan Araúz over from second base to shortstop. Yairo Muñoz stepped into the lineup at second. That duo looks to be the likeliest middle infield tandem for the Red Sox over the next week-plus while Bogaerts recuperates.

The Red Sox will have to continue to rely upon their depth options as they navigate a difficult stretch on the schedule. Boston has series against the Rays, Indians, Rays again and White Sox through the end of next week. The Red Sox entered play tonight leading the A’s by two games for the final American League playoff spot.

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