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Previewing Upcoming Opt-Out Decisions And Player Options

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With the offseason approaching, so is the time for players and teams to decide upon any 2023 options in their contracts. MLBTR has taken a look through various option decisions in recent weeks: first with players whose deals contain vesting provisions, then a respective look at the team options in both the American and National Leagues.

Today, we’ll turn our attention to the players’ side. A number of players could hit free agency this winter either by triggering an opt-out clause in their current deal or bypassing a player option for the 2023 campaign. We’ll take a run through those decisions, many of which will have implications at the very top of the free agent market.

Note: All stats referenced are through play Sunday

Elite Potential Free Agents

  • Nolan Arenado, Cardinals 3B (can opt out of final five years and $144MM)

Arenado was already on a Hall of Fame trajectory before 2022, but he’s bolstering his case with the best season of his career. Through 500 plate appearances, he owns a .306/.370/.567 line with 27 home runs. He’s had seasons with that kind of slash line in years past, but they came with the caveat that he’d played half his games at Coors Field. That’s no longer a factor, and it’s easily his best offensive output once one adjusts for the ballpark. Arenado’s 162 wRC+ is the fourth-best mark among qualified hitters.

That kind of offensive production alone would get him in the MVP discussion, but Arenado’s obviously valuable for far more than his bat. One of the best defensive third basemen in MLB history, he’s continued to post elite marks with the glove even as he’s entered his 30s. Arenado is among the top handful of players in the game. While walking away from $144MM wouldn’t be an easy decision, it’d seem the prudent one from a strict financial perspective. Freddie Freeman received six years and $162MM from the Dodgers (albeit with deferrals that reduced the net present value closer to the $148MM range) headed into his age-32 season. Freeman was coming off a 135 wRC+ platform showing, and he plays a less valuable position. Arenado and his camp could make a strong argument the Freeman contract should represent his floor, and it’s not outlandish to seek a six-year deal at the $35MM annual range Anthony Rendon received from the Angels (which would bring the guarantee to $210MM).

On paper, Arenado’s opt-out decision looks like a slam dunk. There’s at least some amount of uncertainty, though, as he forewent an opt-out opportunity last offseason and told Derrick Goold of the Post-Dispatch it was “always the plan” to remain in St. Louis long term. Passing on free agency coming off a .255/.312/.494 showing in 2021 is a lot easier than doing so after a career-best year that should make him an MVP finalist. Maybe he’s comfortable enough with the Cardinals he’ll return, but he’d probably be leaving a lot of money on the table to do so. At the very least, he looks to have a case for a renegotiation of his contract with the Cards, which is slated to pay him just $15MM in the final season (2027).

  • Carlos Correa, Twins SS (can opt out of final two years and $70.2MM this offseason; deal also contains post-2023 opt-out if Correa opts in this winter)

Regarded by many (MLBTR included) as the top free agent in last winter’s class, Correa reportedly turned down at least one ten-year offer early in the offseason in search of a guarantee that rivaled the $341MM Francisco Lindor had received from the Mets last April. That proposal seemingly never came, and Correa reversed course in Spring Training. He signed a shocking three-year deal with the Twins that guaranteed him the largest annual salary ($35.1MM) for a free agent position player and afforded the opportunity to retest the market in either of the next two offseasons via opt-out.

Conventional wisdom was that Correa was sure to trigger his first opt-out and make another run at a long-term deal in a winter unaffected by a lockout. That still seems likely, although he hasn’t resoundingly made the case for teams to be more willing to approach the Lindor range that they had been. He’s having a similar offensive season as he did during his final year with the Astros. After posting a .279/.366/.485 showing his last year in Houston, Correa is hitting .276/.355/.439 over 440 plate appearances with Minnesota. His raw power production is down, but that’s not quite as alarming when considering the leaguewide slugging percentage has dropped from .411 to .395. Perhaps of greater concern is that the elite defensive marks that garnered Correa a Gold Glove last season are unanimously down, ranging anywhere from below-average (-2 Outs Above Average) to solid (+4 Defensive Runs Saved, +1 Ultimate Zone Rating).

There’s no question Correa’s an excellent player having a very good season. Yet he’s not likely to wind up a top five finisher in MVP balloting as he did in 2021. He’d top a $200MM guarantee on the open market, but he’s unlikely to reach the kind of money he anticipated last offseason. Could he return to Minnesota (where he’s by all accounts very happy) for one more year and look to trigger his post-2023 opt-out after hopefully putting up MVP-caliber numbers? That feels unlikely, but he’s already bet on himself once and would only be entering his age-29 season if he put off opting out for a year.

Bogaerts has been the Red Sox’s everyday shortstop since 2014, but his time in Boston could be nearing its end. He and the club didn’t make progress in extension talks this spring, and he’s a lock to opt out and top $60MM on the open market barring a catastrophic injury. One of the game’s top offensive shortstops, Bogaerts is amidst another strong season. He carries a .303/.372/.448 line through 508 plate appearances. His slugging output is below where it was from 2018-21, but he consistently gets on base and has a strong pre-2022 track record from a power perspective.

One can quibble about certain aspects of Boagerts’ profile. In addition to this year’s slugging dip, he’s traditionally rated as a below-average defender. Even with generally solid defensive metrics this season, clubs will probably have some question whether he’ll eventually need to move to second or third base. Those are nitpicks for whether Bogaerts would be a worthwhile investment in the $180MM – $200MM range, though. A 30-year-old shortstop with an elite durability track record and a .299/.370/.478 line since the start of 2020, he’s certainly going to shatter $60MM even if the market takes a relatively pessimistic view of his long-term projection.

  • Jacob deGrom, Mets RHP (can opt of final year and $33.5MM this offseason)

There’s no suspense with this one, as deGrom has publicly maintained his plan to opt out for months. That’s in spite of elbow/shoulder injuries that kept him from throwing a major league pitch between July 2021 and this August. With only one guaranteed year remaining on his deal (plus a 2024 club option that’d go into effect if he doesn’t opt out this winter), that’s been a pretty easy call. To the extent there may have been any lingering doubts, deGrom has silenced them with his first five starts since returning from the injured list. He’s looked like his vintage self, averaging 99.3 MPH on his fastball while posting a laughable 46:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 29 1/3 innings. On an inning-for-inning basis, he’s the best starting pitcher on the planet.

deGrom’s free agent case will be fascinating. Even if he finishes the season healthy, he’ll have gone three consecutive years without topping 15 starts or 100 innings (although he’s obviously not at fault for the shortened 2020 schedule). What kind of volume a signing team can expect is an open question, particularly as he enters his age-35 season. Yet the upside of a healthy deGrom is through the roof. He’ll receive a multi-year deal that beats the $33.5MM remaining on his current contract. Can he top teammate Max Scherzer’s $43.333MM AAV over a three or even four-year term? Time will tell.

While we’re on the topic of upper-echelon starting pitchers who are basically certain to opt out, let’s turn to Verlander. The future Hall of Famer triggered a $25MM option for next season by throwing 130 innings, but that’s largely a moot point. Verlander told Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic last week he was likely to opt out if things went as planned down the stretch. It’d have been surprising if he were even considering exercising the option.

Verlander has returned from 2020 Tommy John surgery to lead the major leagues with a 1.84 ERA. He’s striking out 26.5% of opponents and has a strong argument for a third career Cy Young award. He’s also a proven playoff performer and a prototypical ace who eats about as many innings as anyone else in the game. Even heading into his age-40 season, Verlander can try to beat the Scherzer AAV on a multi-year contract.

Verlander did injure his calf in his most recent start, resulting in a placement on the injured list just this afternoon. The Astros announced that an MRI of his calf revealed “fascial disruption, but no muscle fiber disruption” — an extremely specific diagnosis but one that both Verlander and GM James Click touted as good news. Click expressed hope the injury will be short-term, and Verlander suggested that had he sustained damage to the muscle fibers themselves, he’d likely have missed the remainder of the regular season and perhaps part of the postseason.

The manner to which Verlander rebounds will obviously be key in his opt-out scenario, but if he misses only a couple weeks’ time and returns strong for his final regular-season and postseason starts, this opt-out is an easy call.

We’ll wrap up the trifecta with Rodón, who’s also going to have an easy decision, barring injury. While there was some trepidation about Rodón’s breakout 2021 season — both due to his inconsistent track record before last season and some shoulder soreness and a velocity drop last August — he’s doubled down and looks to have cemented himself among the game’s top ten starters. Rodón has avoided the injured list thus far, and he’s striking out 32.1% of opponents while posting a 2.81 ERA through 25 starts. By topping 110 innings, he earned the right to opt out after this season.

Heading into his age-30 campaign, he should land the nine-figure deal that eluded him last offseason. Between his youth and last two years of production, Rodón has an argument for the largest guarantee of any free agent starter. He won’t get paid at the deGrom or Verlander level on an annual basis, but he could push for six years and look to top $150MM.

Quality Regulars Likely To Opt Out

Rizzo’s market last offseason seemed a bit underwhelming. The veteran first baseman was coming off two fine but unspectacular seasons, and it looked as if his best days might be behind him with his mid-30s approaching. Rizzo still made plenty of contact and hit the ball hard, but he’d gotten quite pull-oriented and had rough ball-in-play results against an increasing number of defensive shifts. He signed a two-year deal with the Yankees that paid him matching $16MM salaries and allowed him to opt out after this season.

That now looks like an easy call, as Rizzo has bounced back with a year more reminiscent of his peak days with the Cubs. He carries a .223/.337/.480 line and is going to top 30 homers for the first time since 2017. He’s still getting dismal results on balls in play and doesn’t have a particularly impressive batting average, but even that looks as if might turn around next year. It’s widely expected MLB will institute limits on shifting next spring. Few players would stand to benefit more than Rizzo, who’s facing a shift on a whopping 83.5% of his plate appearances according to Statcast. His age and lack of defensive versatility will limit the length of any deal, but he’ll probably beat the $16MM salary over at least a two-year term, even if the Yankees tag him with a qualifying offer.

The Padres’ signing Profar to a three-year, $21MM deal that allowed him multiple opt-out chances was one of the more eyebrow-raising moves of the 2020-21 offseason. The switch-hitter was coming off a solid 2020 campaign, but that shortened schedule was the first in which he’d posted above-average production. It looked like a misstep when he struggled last year and unsurprisingly forewent his first opt-out clause, but Profar has rewarded the organization’s faith with a career-best showing in 2022.

Through 530 plate appearances, he’s hitting .241/.339/.387 with 12 homers. He’s walking at a robust 12.3% clip while only going down on strikes 15.1% of the time. He looks like a solid regular, and headed into his age-30 season, Profar’s a candidate for another multi-year deal this time around. After major throwing issues as an infielder early in his career, he’s played exclusively left field this year. Profar isn’t a prototypical corner outfield masher, but his plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills should allow him to top the guaranteed money remaining on his current deal.

Starting Pitchers With High Buyouts

Walker signed a $20MM guarantee with the Mets over the 2020-21 offseason. The deal was front-loaded but came with a $6MM player option or a $3MM buyout for 2023. Adding a player option allowed the Mets to soften the contract’s luxury tax hit. Because player options are treated as guaranteed money, it technically qualified as a three-year, $20MM deal with a $6.67MM average annual value for CBT purposes. Yet the $3MM gap between the option value and the buyout meant Walker was a virtual lock to opt out, barring injury that made him unable to pitch next season. The Associated Press reports the option has various escalators that could push its value as high as $8.5MM if Walker throws 175 innings this year, but even that figure is modest enough he’s going to decline.

Walker should opt out in search of a multi-year deal, as he’s been a valuable mid-rotation arm for New York. Over 117 1/3 frames, he owns a 3.38 ERA despite a modest 18.3% strikeout rate. His blend of plus control and solid ground-ball rates makes him a candidate for a three-year pact as he heads into his age-30 season. The Mets will have an interesting decision on whether to tag him with a qualifying offer.

Like Walker, Odorizzi signed late in the 2020-21 offseason on a deal that locked in the first two seasons and gave the player a third-year option. Odorizzi’s contract with the Astros was similarly structured to facilitate a third-year buyout while diminishing the AAV for luxury tax purposes, although he’s deciding on a bit more money. The option was initially valued at $6.5MM with a $3.25MM buyout, but the Associated Press provided a breakdown of various escalators. The option value would jump by $2MM apiece if Odorizzi reached 20, 25 and 30 appearances between 2021-22 in which he either started the game or worked four-plus innings of relief. The buyout value would spike by $1MM apiece for hitting each of those thresholds.

Odorizzi has already made 41 such appearances over the past two years, so he’s long since maxed out both thresholds. He’ll therefore be deciding between a $12.5MM option to return to the Braves or taking a $6.25MM buyout and heading to free agency. With only a $6.25MM difference between the option value and the buyout, Odorizzi looks like a borderline opt-out case. He owns a 3.90 ERA across 85 1/3 innings this season, although his 18.3% strikeout rate is a few points below league average. He’ll be 33 by next Opening Day, and he didn’t find as robust interest as most expected he would during his last trip through free agency. He’s a quality strike-thrower and a perfectly fine back-of-the-rotation starter, but it’s now been three years since he’s missed bats at an above-average rate, and he was traded this summer in a one-for-one swap for an underperforming reliever (Will Smith).

Easy Calls To Return

  • Chris Sale, Red Sox LHP (can opt out of final two years and $55MM)

Sale has the right to pass on the final two years of his extension with the Red Sox this winter, but he certainly won’t do so. He’s made just 11 starts over the past three seasons due to various injuries, including a 2020 Tommy John surgery and a trio of fractures (rib, finger and wrist) this year. Sale has still flashed mid-rotation or better upside in the limited time he’s been on the field, but there’s too much uncertainty with his health to land anywhere near $55MM were he to test the market.

  • Eric Hosmer, Red Sox 1B (can opt out of final three years and $39MM)

Hosmer’s opt-in decision is a no-brainer. Since signing a $144MM contract with the Padres heading into 2018, he’s posted a league average .264/.325/.409 slash line. Paired with his lack of defensive versatility and mixed reviews on his glovework (public metrics have never been as fond of Hosmer as his four Gold Gloves would suggest), he’d probably be limited to one-year offers were he a free agent. The Padres will remain on the hook for virtually all of the money, as they agreed to pay down Hosmer’s deal to the league minimum salary to facilitate his trade to the Red Sox.

  • Jorge Soler, Marlins LF (can opt out of final two years and $24MM; deal also contains post-2023 opt-out if Soler opts in this year)

Soler parlayed a big second half and huge batted ball metrics into a three-year deal with Miami last offseason. His massive raw power hasn’t translated into especially strong results since he’s become a Marlin, however. He’s been a below-average hitter, and it’s now been three years since he was a middle-of-the-order caliber player over a full season. Paired with a limited defensive profile that keeps him in the corner outfield or at designated hitter, he’s been right around replacement level this season. He’s not opting out this year, but a big showing in 2023 could allow him to reconsider the possibility next winter.

  • AJ Pollock, White Sox LF ($11MM option, $5MM buyout)

The White Sox acquired Pollock just before the start of the season, sending Craig Kimbrel to the Dodgers in a surprising one-for-one swap. The hope was that they’d addressed a notable hole in the corner outfield, but Pollock’s production has cratered in Chicago. Just a season removed from a .297/.355/.536 showing in L.A., he’s stumbled to a .237/.284/.363 line through 401 plate appearances with the ChiSox. Even with a fairly modest $6MM gap between the option’s present value and the buyout, Pollock is likely to bypass a trip to free agency after a replacement-level platform season.

The present $11MM option value isn’t fixed, as Pollock’s contract contains escalators that could boost it a bit further. Originally set at $10MM, he’d lock in an extra $1MM for hitting each of 400, 450, 500, 550 and 600 plate appearances this season. He’s already surpassed 400 trips, and the 450 mark is well within range with 34 games remaining. Consistent playing time down the stretch would allow him to reach 500 plate appearances as well, although it’s hard to envision him getting to 550. The most likely outcome is that the option price ends up at $12MM, but anywhere between $11-13MM is viable.

Schoop signed a two-year, $15MM extension amidst a productive 2021 season in Detroit. While a defensible enough decision for the Tigers at the time, that hasn’t panned out. The veteran second baseman has a .235 on-base percentage that’s easily the worst in the majors among players with 400+ plate appearances. He’s posted otherworldly defensive marks this season and could well collect a Gold Glove, but the complete lack of production at the dish should make him a lock to exercise his option.

Blackmon exercised a 2022 option last season, and he went on the record at the time as saying he’d trigger the 2023 provision as well. There’s no intrigue as to his decision — he’ll be back in Colorado next year — the only question is how much he’ll make. The ’23 option came with a $10MM base value, but ESPN reported it’d escalate by $500K apiece if Blackmon reached 400, 425, 450, 475, 500, and 525 plate appearances in 2022. It’d jump another $1MM apiece at 550 and 575 trips.

The veteran outfielder enters play Tuesday with 490 plate appearances, so he’s already pushed the value to $12MM. Barring injury, he’s a lock to hit at least the 525 PA mark, and he’s quite likely to get all the way to 575. Colorado has 33 games remaining, and Blackmon is only 85 plate appearances (2.76 per game) from maxing out the plate appearance threshold at $15MM. The deal also contained escalators based on MVP finishes which Blackmon will not hit.

Relievers

  • Nick Martinez, Padres RHP (can opt out of final three years and $19.5MM this offseason, $1.5MM buyout; deal also contains opt-out chances after 2023 and 2024 if Martinez opts in)

Martinez signed a four-year, $25.5MM guarantee with San Diego this past winter. That deal contained opt-out chances after each of the first three seasons for the former NPB hurler, but it seems unlikely Martinez will take his first opportunity to return to the open market. He has a strong 3.02 ERA over 92 1/3 innings during his return season in the big leagues, but he’s worked as a swingman for a San Diego team that has quite a bit of rotation depth. Martinez has excelled as a reliever, pitching to a 1.35 ERA while holding opponents to a .208/.258/.295 line in 40 innings. That’s come with a modest 21.5% strikeout rate, though, and he doesn’t brandish the power arsenal teams tend to prioritize late in games.

Entering his age-32 season, Martinez probably wouldn’t find a better deal that the opt-out laden three years and $18MM (after factoring in the buyout price) he’d be bypassing to return to the open market. The Friars have to be happy with their investment considering his excellence out of the bullpen, but the surprisingly strong deal they gave him in the first place makes it hard to see him doing much better elsewhere even on the heels of a quality first season.

Detroit signed the ever-reliable Chafin late last offseason, and they’ve been rewarded with another excellent year. Through 43 1/3 innings, he’s posted a 2.91 ERA while striking out more than 30% of opponents with an excellent 52.3% ground-ball rate. The market probably undervalued Chafin last winter; it’d be hard to do so again after another very good season. In a vacuum, declining the option and topping $6.5MM in free agency seems likely.

That said, the Tigers decision to not trade Chafin at this summer’s deadline was tied to a belief he could stick around. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press reported shortly before the deadline that Detroit’s proximity to Chafin’s Ohio home could lead him to return in 2023 if he weren’t moved before August 2. That led to a disconnect in his trade value, with the Tigers confident they still possessed a year and a half of his services while other clubs viewed him as an impending free agent. From a strict financial perspective, opting out is the prudent call. Yet the family considerations Petzold noted would make the decision more complicated if Chafin’s priority isn’t simply to maximize his earnings.

San Diego added Suárez, who’d never previously pitched in the majors, on the heels of an excellent career closing in Japan. He had a nightmare outing on Opening Day where he dished out free passes to all three batters he faced, but he’s been quite effective since that point. Excluding his first appearance, Suárez owns a 2.36 ERA with a strong 29% strikeout rate in 34 1/3 innings. He’s still had spotty control, but he’s averaging north of 97 MPH on his fastball. He’d only need to beat $4MM on the open market, and something around that rate over a multi-year term feels attainable heading into his age-32 season. A rough final couple months could change the calculus, but Suárez seems likely to retest free agency at the moment.

Forecasting The 2022-23 Qualifying Offers: Position Players

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The qualifying offer has impacted the free agent market for the last 10 offseasons, but it wasn’t clear if there would be an eleventh as Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association engaged in labor talks last winter.  When the lockout was over and the new collective bargaining agreement was finally settled, one sticking point remained — the implementation of an international player draft.  If the union agreed to this draft, the league would have agreed to scrap the qualifying offer system altogether.

However, July’s deadline for a decision on an international draft came and went without any new agreement, and thus the status quo of the QO will remain for the 2022-23 free agent class.  As such, we can now look ahead and predict which players will or could receive qualifying offers from their teams at the end of the season.

A quick refresher on the QO rules.  The qualifying offer is a one-year contract with a salary figure determined by averaging the top 125 salaries of all MLB players.  Last year’s figure was $18.4MM, and it’s safe to estimate that this winter’s QO will be worth somewhere in the range of $18-19MM.  Any free agent is eligible to be issued a qualifying offer unless a) they have received one in past trips to free agency, or b) they haven’t spent the entire 2022 season with their current organization.  For instance, the Padres can’t issue Josh Bell a qualifying offer because Bell was only acquired at the trade deadline.

If a player accepts the qualifying offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal in the $18MM-$19MM range.  (The player can also negotiate a longer-term extension with his team after accepting that QO, as Jose Abreu did with the White Sox in November 2019.)  While some free agents have indeed taken the qualifying offer, the large majority reject the deal in search of a richer and lengthier contract.  If a player rejects a QO and signs elsewhere, their new team must give up at least one draft pick and possibly some international draft pool money, while their former team will get a compensatory draft pick in return.

With several prominent names in this year’s free agent market eligible for the QO, let’s look at some of the candidates, starting with position players.

Easy Calls: Nolan Arenado (Cardinals), Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox), Willson Contreras (Cubs), Aaron Judge (Yankees), Brandon Nimmo (Mets), Dansby Swanson (Braves), Trea Turner (Dodgers)

There isn’t much drama in any of these decisions, as these players are all obvious candidates to be issued qualifying offers that will be rejected.  Nimmo is perhaps the only name on this list that rates as a bit of a surprise, yet he has quietly posted strong numbers over his seven seasons in New York, including a quality 2022 campaign.  Most importantly, Nimmo has also stayed healthy, playing in 104 of the Mets’ 113 games — this is already the second-most games played for Nimmo in any season of what has been an injury-plagued career.

Arenado and Bogaerts aren’t guaranteed to be free agents, as either could pass on exercising opt-out clauses in their current deals.  However, Bogaerts is a virtual lock to opt out, and Arenado is having such a great season that he should be able to comfortably top the $144MM he is owed through from 2023-27.  Since Arenado has been vocal about how much he likes playing for the Cardinals, an extension is certainly possible before Arenado even hits the open market, with the Cards perhaps tacking another guaranteed year and more money onto the deal to prevent the third baseman from opting out.

Easy Contract-Option Calls: Tim Anderson (White Sox)

The White Sox hold club options on Anderson’s services for both the 2023 and 2024 seasons, with next year’s option being worth $12.5MM (with a $1MM buyout).  Though he could technically be a free agent, there is zero doubt the Sox will exercise Anderson’s 2023 option, so a qualifying offer is a moot point.

Borderline Cases: Mitch Haniger (Mariners), J.D. Martinez (Red Sox), Jurickson Profar (Padres), Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)

Rizzo’s two-year, $32MM free agent deal with the Yankees includes an opt-out clause after this season, and it would seem like the first baseman (who just turned 33 earlier this week) will indeed test the open market again.  Rizzo’s first full season in the Bronx has seen him hit .224/.342/.504 with 27 home runs, with the fifth-best wRC+ (139) of his distinguished career.  Rizzo’s age, home/road splits, and first base-only status will limit his market to some extent, and draft-pick compensation via the qualifying offer will also make other teams wary.  But, Rizzo was still able to land a multi-year pact last winter coming off a lesser platform year, so he should be able to match or better that pact again.  Rizzo has quickly become a clubhouse and fan favorite in New York, so this could be another situation where a player is convinced to pass on an opt-out due to a contract extension.

Haniger has appeared in only 15 games this season, due to both a high ankle sprain that required a trip to the 60-day injured list, as well as a two-week stint on the COVID-related injury list in April.  He has been on a tear since returning to action last week, but if his numbers settle down, then it seems likely that Seattle won’t issue a qualifying offer.  However, if Haniger continues to mash over the remainder of the season and returns to his 2021 form, the Mariners face an interesting decision.

A late-season hot streak could do enough for Haniger’s market that he might reject a qualifying offer, as since Haniger turns 32 in December, this could be his best shot at a lucrative multi-year deal.  On the flip side, he could still choose to accept the QO, knowing that his checkered injury history could work against him in free agency — Haniger can bank the one-year QO payday and then hope for a full and healthy 2023 season as a better platform for that longer-term deal.  From the Mariners’ perspective, paying around $19MM for Haniger could be seen as a worthwhile investment, especially since the team doesn’t know what to expect from Kyle Lewis and Jarred Kelenic heading into 2023.

Martinez turns 35 on August 21 and is still posting above-average (120 wRC+) numbers, hitting .281/.346/.443 with nine home runs over 422 plate appearances.  That still represents a significant power dropoff from Martinez’s norms, and he has been a DH-only player this season.  Even with the looming threat of losing Bogaerts from the Red Sox lineup, Boston might still pass on issuing a QO to Martinez out a concern that he might accept, since chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom seems to be looking for more flexibility with both the roster and the payroll.

Profar is another less-likely candidate to receive a qualifying offer, even if he is also playing well.  Between good offensive (119 wRC+, 12 homers, .254/.345/.416 over 467 PA) and defensive (+5 Defensive Runs Saved, +1.8 UZR/150 in left field) numbers, Profar has been a 2.8 fWAR player in 107 games with San Diego this season, a nice bounce-back from an underwhelming 2021.  With a player option attached to his 2023 services, Profar can either earn $7.5MM next season or take the $1MM buyout and test the open market.

At the very least, it would seem like Profar will indeed opt out and try to secure a longer-term contract, but it would seem like a reach if the Padres issued a qualifying offer.  Profar will only be 30 on Opening Day, so he could accept the QO to lock in that one-year payday, and then be on track to test the market again at age 31.  Considering the Padres might exceed the luxury tax threshold for the second straight year and will face a lot of free agent decisions this winter, they probably won’t want to risk Profar being bumped into the $19MM salary range.  Profar could be another extension candidate, given president of baseball operations A.J. Preller’s belief in Profar’s ability dating back to their days in the Rangers organization.

Cubs Notes: Free Agency, Hendricks, Reyes

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Although the Cubs generally sat out last winter’s star-studded free agent market for shortstops, there’s already been ample speculation that they’ll be more aggressive on that front in the 2022-23 offseason. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic added to that this week in his podcast, voicing a belief that the Cubs “will get” one of the marquee shortstops on this year’s market. As profiled in our latest Free Agent Power Rankings here at MLBTR yesterday, the class includes Trea Turner, Carlos Correa (who’s expected to opt out of the final two years and $70.7MM of his Twins deal this winter), Xander Bogaerts (who’ll opt out of the final three years and $60MM on his Red Sox deal) and Dansby Swanson.

It’s obviously far too early to make any definitive statements regarding who’ll sign where over the winter, and it bears emphasizing that speculation this time of year often doesn’t align with reality when the offseason dust settles. (A year ago this time, the common speculation was that Correa would reunite with former Astros skipper AJ Hinch in Detroit. A few years back, Patrick Corbin and the Yankees were linked to one another just about every week.) Signing one of the “big” shortstops would likely require the largest commitment the Cubs have made since signing Yu Darvish to a six-year, $126MM contract in free agency — and each of the four can be reasonably expected to clear that sum on the open market this year.

Correa was reported to be a target of the Cubs last winter, but he revealed in a July interview with Gordon Wittenmyer that in spite of some conversation, he never received an actual offer. The Cubs ultimately signed the recently released Andrelton Simmons to a one-year, $4MM deal.

More from Wrigley…

  • The Cubs aren’t certain whether they’ll get Kyle Hendricks back this season, although manager David Ross tells reporters that the right-hander’s latest MRI revealed only continued inflammation and some indications that the 32-year-old is “getting better” (link via Tim Stebbins of NBC Sports Chicago). Hendricks, who hasn’t pitched since July 5, will be shut down for an additional week, at which point the Cubs’ medical staff will reevaluate him. Hendricks, who’s in the third season of a four-year, $55.5MM contract extension, posted a 4.80 ERA through 16 starts when healthy enough to pitch. For the time being, the team’s focus is solely on getting Hendricks healthy and not necessarily on getting him back into game shape, Ross suggested, which makes sense for a player who’s signed for $14MM next season on a team with no postseason hopes. “I don’t think getting him back in games is a top priority for everyone,” said Ross. “But if he is able to get to that space, I think that’s a win for everyone.”
  • “Cubs bench coach Andy Green and assistant hitting coach know recently claimed slugger Franmil Reyes quite well from the trio’s time together in San Diego, Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times points out. Green admitted to “fist pumping” when he learned the club had been awarded the waiver claim on Reyes, and both he and Washington effused praise for Reyes’ clubhouse demeanor and energy. As Lee explores, the Cubs’ decision to option Frank Schwindel following the Reyes claim — much like the decision to option David Bote after acquiring Zach McKinstry — signal a shift to beginning to evaluate newly acquired and/or untested players over the season’s final few months rather than sticking with struggling veterans whom the club knows a bit better.

2022-23 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings: August Edition

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A lot has changed since the last edition of MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings. Joe Musgrove, formerly the No. 5 entrant on the list, has since signed a five-year extension with his hometown Padres, keeping him from reaching the market. Willson Contreras, the No. 9 entrant on that edition of the list, was somewhat stunningly not traded at the deadline, meaning he’ll be subject to draft-pick compensation. Jacob deGrom had yet to pitch at that point in the season but has now made a dominant pair of outings in his 2022 debut. More broadly, several players on the list or on the “honorable mention” portion of the list have altered their stock with strong play or faded.

Here’s a look at where things stand, with a reminder that this list is based on what the MLBTR team believes to be each player’s earning power in free agency — not necessarily a ranking of the “best” free agents or who’ll hold up the best over the life of a major free-agent contract.

1. Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees (Last ranked: 1): While plenty has changed since the May 25 version of these rankings, it’s business as usual for Judge, who boldly turned down a seven-year, $213.5MM extension offer back in Spring Training and now looks prescient for doing so. Judge was hitting .314/.386/.692 at the time of our last rankings and has followed that with a remarkably consistent .292/.390/.654 line in 64 games since. Judge is on pace to top Roger Maris’ 61 home runs from the 1961 season, leading the Majors not only in long balls (44) but also runs scored (93), RBIs (98), slugging percentage (.677), OPS (1.068) and wRC+ (196). He’s leading the AL with 122 hits and has even stolen a career-high 11 bases (without being caught).

Aaron Judge | Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Judge has been the best hitter on the planet since Opening Day, and as things currently stand, the only person who could conceivably stand in his way of winning his first AL MVP trophy would be Angels sensation Shohei Ohtani. However, great as Ohtani has been again in 2022, his offense isn’t quite what it was last year (and isn’t anywhere close to Judge’s league-leading dominance). From a pure WAR perspective, Judge has been so good this year that his value with the bat has eclipsed Ohtani’s combined value at the plate and on the mound.

Regardless, Judge is now poised to reach free agency on the heels of the finest season of his already brilliant big league career. He’ll play the 2023 season at age 31, which is about the only strike against him in free agency. Judge will receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Yankees, and even though he’d be 38 by the end of an eight-year deal, that seems plenty plausible. He could very well command the largest annual salary any position player has ever received, too, and a $300MM overall contract doesn’t seem out of the question. This is what it looks like to bet on yourself and win — in resounding, overwhelming fashion, no less.

2. Trea Turner, SS, Dodgers (LR: 3): There’s not much on the baseball field that Turner doesn’t do well. The 29-year-old is the sport’s fastest player, by measure of Statcast’s Average Sprint Speed, and he’s hitting .305/.345/.499 as of this writing. The 28 home runs he popped in 2021 might very well go down as a career-high, but Turner should finish this year around 25 dingers and has twice in the past hit 19 long balls (including in a 2019 season where he played in just 122 games).

That injury shortened ’19 campaign was the only one in the past half decade in which Turner spent significant time on the shelf. Over the  past five years, he’s a .303/.358/.493 hitter who’s made a pair of All-Star teams, won a batting title and taken home a World Series ring.

By the end of a long-term deal, Turner will probably move off shortstop, but he’s a solid option there for now who’d be plenty capable of sliding over to second base at some point. Over the past three seasons, he’s been 43% better than league-average with the bat, by measure of wRC+, and this will be his fourth season of at least four wins above replacement in the past five years — with the 60-game 2020 season, when he boasted 2.8 fWAR and bWAR alike, being the lone exception.

If Turner had been born a day later, next year would technically be considered his age-29 season, but he’ll be 30 on June 30, and the July 1 cutoff is (for whatever reason) generally seen as the arbitrary turning point for a player’s age in a given year. A seven-year deal for Turner would run through age-37, and an eight-year deal through age-38. He’ll have to contend with a qualifying offer and another deep class of shortstops, but Turner is one of baseball’s most well-rounded players and figures to be compensated in line with the game’s 10 to 20 best position players.

3. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals (LR: 6): It’s difficult to directly compare Arenado’s 2022 season and the 2019 season that propelled Anthony Rendon to a seven-year, $245MM contract, given that Rendon’s Herculean ’19 effort came during the juiced-ball season. Offense is down league-wide now, yet Arenado stacks up favorably in terms of batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Metrics like wRC+ and OPS+, which weight for both home park and league environment, feel that Arenado’s 2022 production at the plate has actually been slightly better.

Defensively, Arenado is nearly peerless at his position. Since making his MLB debut in 2013, Arenado ranks second among all players, regardless of position, with 151 Defensive Runs Saved, trailing only Andrelton Simmons. He’s third to Francisco Lindor and Nick Ahmed in Statcast’s Outs Above Average, which tracks defensive data dating back to 2016. Arenado’s numbers aren’t inflated by early-career marks, either. He remains elite this season, ranking third in all of MLB in DRS and second in OAA. Defensive metrics and the eye test agree, as Arenado has been a human highlight reel at the hot corner for his decade-long career.

The age gap between 2022 Arenado (31) and 2019 Rendon (29) can’t be ignored. However, that should be more reflected in the length of a theoretical Arenado contract than in the annual value. It’s also, of course, worth noting that Arenado is technically under contract through 2027. He’s guaranteed $144MM in that time but has the right to opt out of the contract after the current season. Arenado forwent an opt-out clause after the 2021 season, but his 2022 campaign is the best of his career.

Even if he’s capped at a five-year deal in free agency, he should be able to trounce the current $28.8MM annual value remaining on his deal by as much as $5-7MM — and a six-year deal doesn’t seem impossible to imagine coming off such a brilliant effort. (Freddie Freeman scored a six-year deal beginning with his age-32 season, so there’s recent precedent.) Perhaps Arenado and the Cardinals will work out a compromise, and it’s always possible he decides he’s happy in St. Louis and just passes on the opt-out entirely. If he does want to test the market again, however, there could be another $20-60MM in earning power for him on top of his current deal.

4. Carlos Correa, SS, Twins (LR: 2): The 2022 season might not have gone quite as well as either Correa or the Twins hoped, but he’s still enjoying a sound all-around year, hitting .265/.343/.433 (22% better than league average, by measure of wRC+). He got out to a slow start in April and has slumped following the All-Star break, but for a three-month stretch from late April to late July, Correa hit .308/.375/.509. Provided the current slump doesn’t last too long, Correa stands a decent chance to be around 30% better than average at the plate for the second straight season and third time in four years.

Last year’s all-world defensive ratings have taken a dip thus far in 2022 — surprising for a player who has generally been a consistent source of elite glovework. He’s made five throwing errors this season, tied for his most since 2016, but Correa has been plenty sure-handed, booting just two balls hit to him. He’s spent the year throwing to Miguel Sano and a pair of makeshift first baseman who’ve converted from other positions (Luis Arraez, Jose Miranda), so perhaps some of the throwing miscues can be forgiven by a team with a better defensive outlook at first base.

If those first couple paragraphs feel like they’re filled with caveats — well, they are. The simple fact is that Correa hasn’t had as strong a season as he did in 2021 and probably shouldn’t be expected to command the type of contract many (MLBTR included) thought to be possible last offseason. That said, Correa still hasn’t even turned 28 — the age at which he’ll play nearly all of the 2023 season. His youth alone gives him the chance to command the longest contract of any free agent this winter; even a 10-year deal would run through age-37.

That type of contract may not be on the table without a huge finish, but Correa is still a plus defender and well above-average hitter with age on his side. It’s perhaps narrowly more plausible that he could opt into a second year with the Twins, take another $35.1MM salary and hope to hit free agency on the heels of a stronger platform in 2023, but his current earning power is still among the best in this year’s free-agent class.

5. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox (LR: 4): When the last version of our list was published, Bogaerts had homered just four times in 174 plate appearances while posting a below-average .135 ISO (slugging minus batting average). It was easy enough to overlook as little more than small-sample noise at the time, but Bogaerts has hit just five home runs in 267 plate appearances since that time and now has nine long balls and a tepid .141 ISO in 441 trips to the plate. That’s the worst power output we’ve seen from Bogaerts since 2017 by an overwhelming margin. From 2018-21, he belted 90 homers in 2106 plate appearances while turning in a stout .224 ISO.

Bogaerts is still hitting .311/.383/.452 on the season, but he’s also sporting a career-high .382 average on balls in play that he’s not going to sustain — particularly not when his average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate are at their lowest or near-lowest levels since 2017.

There’s still no doubt that Bogaerts will opt out of the remaining three years and $60MM on his contract, but he’d be higher on this list if not for his power stroke going MIA. Couple that with ongoing questions about his defense — some teams are surely going to see Bogaerts as a player who needs to move off shortstop, perhaps as soon as 2023 — and the current free-agent outlook is a bit murkier than expected.

Nevertheless, Bogaerts has a long track record of excellent offense and well above-average power output. With a strong finish to the season, particularly in the power department, he should have no problem commanding a notable nine-figure deal — and something in excess of $200MM can’t be ruled out.

6. Jacob deGrom, RHP, Mets (LR: 7): The No. 6 ranking here for deGrom factors in something of a best-case scenario, but this list is based on earning power, after all. If deGrom gets hurt again or struggles down the stretch, it’s possible he’ll drop off the list entirely. The latter of those two scenarios seems unlikely, though, as deGrom hasn’t “struggled” since 2017. He’s been dominant through his first two starts of the 2022 season, averaging 99.2 mph with his fastball and holding opponents to three runs on four hits and a walk with 18 punchouts through 10 2/3 innings.

Dating back to 2018, deGrom has a comical 1.95 ERA in 591 2/3 innings with a 34.9% strikeout rate against a 5.3% walk rate. When healthy, deGrom is simply unmatched in terms of starting pitching dominance over that period. He ranks second among all Major League pitchers with 24 wins above replacement dating back to 2018, per FanGraphs, despite the fact that he’s made only 93 starts in that time. Max Scherzer tops the list but has started 24 more games and logged 143 2/3 more innings — about an extra 75% of a season’s worth of work.

If deGrom finishes the season with no red flags, the bidding should be furious. He’ll turn 35 next June, making him nearly three full years younger than Scherzer was when he secured his record-setting three-year, $130MM deal from the Mets. DeGrom could justifiably look to top that AAV on a multi-year deal, and he’s too good for the bidding to stop at two years. The biggest question surrounding deGrom is just how many years someone will be willing to guarantee. A three-year pact in excess of Scherzer’s seems doable, and a fourth year ought to be on the table as well.

7. Dansby Swanson, SS, Braves (LR: Not Ranked): Long a plus defender at shortstop, Swanson is having another strong year with the glove and a career year with the bat. He’s followed up a career-high 27 home runs in 2021 with a .292/.348/.461 showing through 463 trips to the plate. He’s been the beneficiary of a .375 average on balls in play that he surely won’t sustain over a larger sample, but Swanson is also making hard contact at a career-best 44.7% clip and elevating the ball more than he has in years past.

A greater walk rate than his current 7.3% clip or lower strikeout rate than his 26.3% mark would raise Swanson’s floor, but his glove alone will make him an above-average regular and he’s well on his way to his second straight 25-homer season. Add in that Swanson will play all of next season at 29 years old, and a nine-figure deal seems likely. Both Trevor Story and Javier Baez landed six-year, $140MM pacts last winter at the same age. Swanson will have to contend with a qualifying offer and with some more decorated shortstop options ahead of him on the market, but he’ll be in high demand all the same.

8. Carlos Rodon, LHP, Giants (LR: 8): Rodon was the best pitcher in baseball through late July in 2021, but he was capped to five innings per appearance (at most) down the stretch as he battled shoulder fatigue and diminished velocity. For a pitcher with Rodon’s injury history, that limited interest in him to the point that he took a two-year, $44MM deal with a chance to opt out following the 2022 season — provided he reached 110 frames.

Rodon has not only reached 110 innings — he’s shot past it with career-best velocity (95.8 mph average fastball) and another sub-3.00 ERA (2.95 through 128 1/3 frames thus far). Rodon is averaging just shy of six innings per outing and boasts a 31.2% strikeout rate against a 7.6% walk rate. He’s reached double-digit strikeouts in six of his 22 starts and held opponents to three or fewer runs in 18 of 22 tries.

Rodon’s fastball in his past eight starts is down about one mile per hour over his average from his first 14 starts, but it’s still been a healthy 95.1 mph in that stretch. That said, he threw a complete game on July 9, worked seven shutout innings on July 31, and averaged a resurgent 96 mph with his heater in his most recent outing. At least so far, Rodon doesn’t appear to be fading at all. If he can avoid the type of late swoon he experienced in 2021, he ought to find four-  and five-year offers at superior annual values to this contract’s $22MM AAV. He’ll receive a qualifying offer and surely reject it, which isn’t ideal, but he has the best combination of age (30 all of next season) and 2022 performance of any starter on this year’s market.

9. Justin Verlander, RHP, Astros (LR: Not Ranked): Simply returning to make a full season’s worth of starts would’ve been a feat for a 39-year-old who had pitched just six innings since the end of the 2019 season due to Tommy John surgery. Verlander, of course, is no ordinary 39-year-old, and he’s not only returned but positioned himself as a front-runner for the AL Cy Young Award.

It’s a jaw-dropping feat, even for one of this generation’s best. Verlander has a 1.73 ERA with a 25.5% strikeout rate against a minuscule 4.6% walk rate. He’s averaging nearly 6 2/3 innings per start, sitting 95.1 mph with his heater — his second-best mark since way back in 2011 — and has thrown a quality start in 16 of his 20 appearances this year. Verlander hasn’t yielded more than one earned run in a start since June 18 and has held opponents to one or zero earned runs in a stunning 15 of 20 starts.

He’ll turn 40 in February, but Verlander has a legitimate case to break Max Scherzer’s $43.33MM AAV, particularly if he’s looking at a two-year deal. He’s said he wants to pitch into his mid-40s and looks as good as ever, though, so we shouldn’t discount the possibility that a team shrugs and goes to three guaranteed years for this generation’s most prolific workhorse. Verlander unlocked a $25MM player option when he reached 130 innings pitched, but he should be able to crush that in free agency even if he prefers to work out an extension with Houston.

10. Edwin Diaz, RHP, Mets (LR: Not Ranked): It’s been six years since Mark Melancon (four years, $62MM), Kenley Jansen (five years, $80MM) and Aroldis Chapman (five years, $85MM) each set new records for relief contracts in the same offseason. Diaz, the most dominant reliever in baseball this season, will have a chance to topple that Chapman record when he heads into free agency in advance of his age-29 season.

After a nightmarish first season in Queens, Diaz has righted the ship and become a spectacle in the best kind of way. He’s averaging 99.1 mph on his heater this season, has punched out 52.9% of his opponents and has an entrance more befitting of a professional wrestler than a Major League closer.

Diaz’s Baseball Savant profile looks like a video game cheat code. He’s leading the Majors in expected ERA, expected wOBA, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, strikeout rate, whiff rate and ranks in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity, opponents’ chase rate, opponents’ barrel rate and fastball velocity. Diaz last allowed an earned run on June 18, and in 18 innings since that time he’s posted a 38-to-1 K/BB ratio while yielding just seven hits.

The 2022 version of Edwin Diaz might be the best reliever we’ve seen since Mariano Rivera. He’ll be hit with a qualifying offer, but it’s doubtful the teams pursuing him are going to even care about that. It’d be a surprise if Diaz doesn’t set a new contract record for relief pitchers this winter, and he could be baseball’s first nine-figure reliever.

Honorable Mentions: Brandon Nimmo, Willson Contreras, Jose Abreu, Josh Bell, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Benintendi

Latest On Red Sox’ Deadline Plans

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As the calendar flipped from June to July, the Red Sox were sitting on a record of 43-33 and holding onto an American League Wild Card spot. However, this has been a disastrous month for them, in which they went 8-19. Now their record is 51-52, placing them 3 1/2 games behind the Rays for the final playoff spot, with three teams in between.

Due to that slide, there’s been recent chatter about the club giving consideration to trading impending free agents such as J.D. Martinez, Christian Vazquez and Nathan Eovaldi. With less than 48 hours remaining until the trade deadline, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports that financial considerations will be a factor in discussions between the Red Sox and other teams. According to Speier, the front office will think about ducking under the luxury tax but will not be required to do so. It’s even possible that they could take on additional salary commitments if it meant adding more prospect talent to the system.

The Red Sox have paid the luxury tax in the past but have been trying to run lower payrolls in recent years. Most famously, or infamously, Boston traded away Mookie Betts and David Price as a means of shedding salary. However, they did some aggressive spending this past winter, most notably the six-year, $140MM contract given to Trevor Story, putting them back over the CBT line for this year. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates their current CBT number is just over $238MM, placing them $8MM beyond the lowest $230MM threshold. (Speier says they are about $7MM over the line.) Since luxury tax status isn’t determined until the offseason, the Sox could still lower their CBT number and avoid all penalties.

Trading Martinez alone would go most of the way, or perhaps all of the way, to getting Boston back under the line. He’s making a salary of just over $19MM this year, but a player’s contribution to the luxury tax calculation is based on the average annual value of the player’s entire contract. Since his deal was for $110MM over five years, it comes with an AAV and CBT hit of $22MM this year. At the time of the trade deadline, there will be just over a third of the season remaining, meaning the Red Sox can chop about $7.5MM off of their luxury tax calculation if they find another team to take on the entirety of the remainder of the Martinez contract. Eovaldi and Vazquez have lower AAVs of $17MM and $7MM, respectively. That means an Eovaldi trade could subtract about $5.8MM from the ledger and about $2.4MM in the case of Vazquez. If the Boston brass decide they need to get under the line, it’s certainly something they can achieve by moving some combination of this trio.

This approach will appeal to certain teams but not others, of course. Teams with lower payrolls could potentially prefer to pay a higher prospect cost in order to take on less salary, but there are also teams in the opposite camp. For example, the Mets are reportedly looking to buy at the deadline but would rather take on money than give up prospects.

However, the Red Sox are also apparently willing to go in another direction, giving thought to using some financial heft to absorb some salary as a means of bolstering their system. The Red Sox have a large number of contracts coming off the books this year, in addition to those already mentioned. Enrique Hernandez, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill, Matt Strahm and Kevin Plawecki are set to reach the open market as well. Furthermore, option decisions could subtract even more money from the 2023 payroll, most notably that owed to Xander Bogaerts, who is widely expected to opt out of his contract in a few months. That gives the Red Sox a CBT number of just under $108MM for next season, according to Jason Martinez. That doesn’t include raises for arbitration eligible players, including Rafael Devers, but it does include Bogaerts. If Bogaerts is indeed subtracted from the ledger, the arbitration players won’t raise that number by much. If Boston is willing to inflate their luxury tax payment this year, they could be in good position to “reset” their CBT status next year. (There are escalating penalties for paying the luxury tax in consecutive seasons, meaning that even the teams with the highest payrolls often find ways to periodically avoid the tax in order to avoid such a scenario.)

All in all, the Red Sox are shaping up to be one of the most interesting teams to watch as we approach the trade deadline, which is at 5pm on August 2. Since they are on a precipice between the contenders and the rebuilders, they might try to walk a line between the two customary “buying” and “selling” strategies. One thing that seems to be off the table, however, is a full-scale rebuild that sees the team strip things down in a serious way. Bogaerts recently said that he was told that he will not be traded, and now Devers has said the same, per Rob Bradford of WEEI. Bradford also relays, however, that there have been no recent contract talks with Bogaerts and the club, meaning it’s still quite possible he opts out at the end of the year, with the club sure to extend him a qualifying offer at that time. Speier also relays word from Vazquez, who also has not had any recent talks about a new contract. Though there are still many possible permutations, it seems that Boston’s roster is headed for a significant shakeup, either this week or in the offseason or both.

Red Sox Inform Xander Bogaerts They Have No Intention Of Trading Him

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Red Sox executives have told Xander Bogaerts they won’t trade him this summer, the star shortstop told reporters tonight (via Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald). Asked whether he’s been given personal assurance from the front office he would not be dealt, Bogaerts replied, “Yeah. I don’t know if I should say that, but I hope I don’t get in trouble. But yeah, much better like that. Communication is always huge in everything in life. To get that type of feedback is beneficial, I would say.”

It’s not a surprising revelation, as recent reports have suggested the Red Sox weren’t likely to make Bogaerts available. CEO Sam Kennedy and chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom have each publicly stated there’s been no internal consideration of dealing the four-time All-Star, with Bloom adding they “don’t plan to” have those conversations. That they’ve apparently reinforced those sentiments in private with Bogaerts seems to solidify that he won’t change teams before next Tuesday’s deadline.

Bogaerts can (and almost certainly will) opt out of the final three years of his contract this offseason. Boston took tonight’s contest from the Guardians to climb back to .500, but their 50-50 mark still has them narrowly behind the Orioles at the bottom of the AL East. More importantly, they’re 3 1/2 games behind the Rays, current owners of the final Wild Card spot, with Cleveland and Baltimore also in between. Even after tonight’s win, Boston has only taken seven of their 24 games this month. That raises some questions about how Bloom and his staff will approach the deadline.

Even had Bloom and company wanted to move the slugging infielder, executing a trade would’ve been easier said than done. There’d have surely been no shortage of interest in a 29-year-old star shortstop, but Bogaerts has full no-trade protection. Bogaerts could’ve dictated where he’d have been dealt or blocked a move entirely, but he nevertheless seems relieved to hear he won’t have to consider those possibilities.

Bogaerts is certain to receive and reject a qualifying offer if he opts out this winter, so the Red Sox would stand to collect a compensatory draft choice if he signs elsewhere. The more immediate concern is whether the club can right the ship over the final couple months and more closely resemble last year’s 92-win team that earned a trip to the ALCS.

The Red Sox’s deadline approach can still go in myriad ways. Boston has a handful of impending free agents who’d be in-demand trade targets. They’re reportedly listening to offers on J.D. Martinez, who’d be one of the best hitters available. Nathan Eovaldi would be arguably the top rental starting pitcher on the market. Catcher Christian Vázquez, starters Michael Wacha and Rich Hill, and reliever Matt Strahm have all had decent seasons, although each of Wacha, Hill and Strahm is currently on the injured list.

Should Bloom and his staff look to add to the roster, the bullpen stands out as an obvious possible target. Wacha and Hill aren’t far off returning, but the recent Chris Sale injury could lead the team to look into rotation upgrades. First base and right field, meanwhile, have each been problem areas all season. Adding a corner bat or two to bolster the lineup depth would be a sensible goal. The Sox haven’t tipped their hand much about the direction they plan to take, but in either event, it appears the fanbase can count on Bogaerts remaining at shortstop for the final few months of the season.

Red Sox Notes: Deadline, Bogaerts, Devers, Bell

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“We’re trying to make the postseason,” Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told NESN’s Tom Caron prior to Tuesday’s game (hat tip to MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith).  This declaration, made a week prior to the trade deadline, seemingly ended some speculation that the Red Sox would look to be deadline sellers, though Bloom did couch his statement with some intriguing caveats: “So whatever that means, we’re going to explore a lot of stuff [at the trade deadline].  Some of them might be things people expect.  Some of them might not be.  But you know, we want to get this group into the postseason.”

It is worth noting that the Sox lost to the Guardians on both Tuesday and Wednesday, dropping Boston’s record to 49-50 for the season.  With a 7-19 mark over their last 26 games, the Red Sox have gone from leading the wild card race to four games out of a wild card slot altogether, and in last place in the competitive AL East.

If Boston can’t string some wins together quickly, it is possible the Sox could turn into more full-fledged sell mode by the August 2 deadline.  However, Bloom’s comments seem to hint that the team could try to thread the needle and both buy and sell at the same time — perhaps moving some pending free agents, but adding longer-term pieces that could also still provide some immediate help.

Beyond Bloom’s public comments, The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes that when it comes to deadline plans, “typical responses from those inside and outside the organization have ranged from ’it’s all in play’ to ’maybe both’ to objections to the buy/sell dichotomy to shrugs of uncertainty.”  Despite all of these options, a truly big shakeup doesn’t appear to be in order, as both Bloom and (in an interview on WEEI’s The Greg Hill Show) team president/CEO Sam Kennedy each ruled out the possibility of Xander Bogaerts or Rafael Devers being dealt.

“There’s been no discussions or commentary internally or externally about moves related to the trade deadline involving Xander, Raffy, or anyone else to my knowledge.  At this point, we’re focused on getting back in this thing and winning,” Kennedy said.  Not only have talks about the two All-Stars not taken place, “we don’t plan to” hold such talks, Bloom added.

Bogaerts can opt out of his contract following the season, and ever since Boston signed Trevor Story to a free agent deal, there has been widespread feeling that Bogaerts will be playing elsewhere in 2023.  Extension talks with both Bogaerts and Devers prior to the season didn’t result in any progress, which then led to increased speculation about Devers also perhaps leaving in free agency following the 2023 campaign.

If a teardown isn’t in order, and standing pat doesn’t appear to be an option for a team with clear roster needs, it then becomes a question of what types of upgrades the Red Sox will pursue by August 2.  One obvious name on paper doesn’t appear to be a priority, as NBC Sports Boston’s John Tomase reports that the Sox have had only “cursory interest” in Nationals first baseman Josh Bell.  While the Sox have had some talks about Bell, “their interest was described more as kicking the tires.”

First base has been a weak link for the Red Sox all year long, and since Bell is perhaps the likeliest player to be moved prior to the deadline, the two sides seemed like a logical match.  Bell would be a pure rental, as the slugger is set for free agency after the year, and the Nats would be in line to recoup a compensatory pick if Bell left given that the qualifying offer system will again be in place for the 2022-23 offseason.

Anything the Sox or other teams offer the Nationals for Bell, therefore, would have to top the value of that compensatory pick for Washington to go ahead with a deal.  For a team like the Red Sox that is perhaps on the fringes of contending, that could be too much of a price to pay, whereas other known Bell suitors like the Astros, Mets, or Brewers could be more amenable since Bell would increase their chances of winning a championship.

Red Sox Reportedly Listening To Offers For J.D. Martinez

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As the Red Sox continue to flounder through the month of July, there are increasing levels of speculation that Boston could sell off some short-term veterans — even if they continue to opportunistically look to add longer-term pieces who’ll help in 2023 and beyond. To that end, ESPN’s Buster Olney said on today’s Baseball Tonight podcast that designated hitter J.D. Martinez “is out in the trade market.” Boston was recently swept by the division-rival Blue Jays, dropping them to 17 games back in the AL East and three back in the Wild Card chase.

The 34-year-old Martinez (35 next month) would immediately become one of the best bets on the market if the Sox indeed do intend to trade him within the next week. Fresh off his fifth career All-Star appearance, Martinez remains a standout bat, hitting .302/.368/.481 with nine homers on the season. He may not be the 45-homer threat he was at his 2017-18 peak, but Martinez’s 8.7% walk rate and 23.6% strikeout rate are both right in line with his career levels, and he’s been 36% better than league-average at the plate by measure of wRC+.

Martinez is in the final season of a frontloaded five-year, $110MM contract that calls for a $19.375MM salary for the current season. He’s still owed about $7.55MM of that salary between now and season’s end, as of this writing, but for a hitter of his caliber it’s a generally reasonable rate of pay.

The extent to which the Red Sox are attempting to move Martinez isn’t yet known. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom typically takes an open-minded approach to the trade deadline and offseason alike, so it’s certainly feasible that he’s simply entertaining offers from other clubs. At the same time, if the Sox have determined that they don’t want to make a qualifying offer to Martinez at what will likely be a comparable rate to his current salary, they could more aggressively contact other clubs and try to initiate negotiations themselves.

Making Martinez available would obviously bring about further questions regarding the Sox’ roster. If they’re willing to move Martinez, it stands to reason that other clubs would inquire about the team’s other slate of pending free agents, at the very least. Nathan Eovaldi would quickly become the top name on the rental market for starting pitchers, and the Sox also have catcher Christian Vazquez, starters Michael Wacha and Rich Hill, utilityman Enrique Hernandez and reliever Matt Strahm set to reach free agency this winter.

Wacha, Hill, Strahm and Hernandez are all on the injured list at the moment, but all four are progressing toward returns (Twitter link via MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo). Hill is slated for a rehab assignment beginning tomorrow, while Wacha recently threw a simulated game. Strahm is only on the IL due to a wrist contusion (the All-Star break likely contributed to the factor to place him on the IL at all). Hernandez will be swinging a bat by the end of the week.

Of course, those players may not be considered quite as “easy” to replace as Martinez. While there’s no Martinez-level bat readily available to take his place, the Sox do have top prospect Triston Casas in Triple-A. Bobby Dalbec is playing third base right now with Rafael Devers on the injured list but could get a look at DH — or the Sox could simply use the designated hitter slot as a means of rotation their regulars and keeping them fresh down the stretch.

While a brief rental of a designated hitter might not generally be expected to produce a significant return, it at least bears mentioning that the Twins were able to pry minor league right-handers Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman from the Rays in last summer’s Nelson Cruz trade. Ryan, then an upper-level starter who’d recently pitched for Team USA in the Olympics, quickly found his way to the big leagues and has been Minnesota’s best starter since last September’s debut. That’ll likely be seen as the gold standard for rental trades of this nature for some time, however, and it’s not necessarily reasonable to expect the Red Sox — or any team — to pull off a return of that quality in exchange for a rental bat.

Obviously any talk of the Red Sox trading rental players will bring about speculation regarding shortstop Xander Bogaerts, who can and almost certainly will opt out of the final three years and $60MM remaining on his contract at season’s end. Bogaerts, however, has full no-trade protection under that contract. Paired with the opt-out provision on the deal, that makes a trade involving him a difficult (albeit not impossible) one to envision. ESPN’s Jeff Passan noted this morning that other teams expect Bogaerts to remain put even if Boston sells off other short-term pieces.

Cubs, Phillies Expected To Pursue Marquee Shortstops This Offseason

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The most recent offseason featured a huge crop of star free agents, with the five top-tier shortstops being one of the most exciting elements, as Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien, Javier Baez and Trevor Story all reached the open market at the same time. In about five months’ time, another offseason will begin, and though the crop of available shortstops won’t be quite as strong, it still has the potential to be noteworthy.

MLBTR recently released its first Free Agent Power Rankings for the upcoming winter, and although red-hot outfielder Aaron Judge nabbed the top spot, he was followed by three shortstops in the 2, 3 and 4 slots: Carlos Correa, Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts. (Correa and Bogaerts both have opt-outs that they are expected to trigger.) In today’s column from Bob Nightengale of USA Today, he reports that the Cubs could be big spenders this winter, naming those three shortstops as their primary targets. “I guarantee you they’re going to get one of them,” an unnamed veteran general manager tells Nightengale, who also says that several executives are predicting the Phillies to be sitting at this table as well.

Cubs manager David Ross recently spoke about letting Nico Hoerner serve as the team’s primary shortstop for the remainder of the year, though he’s also spent a decent amount of time at second base, as well as occasionally lining up at third base and in the outfield. It seems the club may be leaning towards a big addition at shortstop and bumping Hoerner over to second base next year.

After a big trade deadline fire sale in 2021, the Cubs were expected to have a fairly quiet offseason this past winter. However, they surprised many people by making a few somewhat aggressive moves. They didn’t land any of the big five shortstops, though they did give out multi-year deals to Seiya Suzuki, Marcus Stroman and Yan Gomes.

The club is currently sporting a record of 23-31, six games back of the final playoff spot. There’s still time for them to gain some ground, though it’s also possible they go into the trade deadline as sellers this year. But regardless of how they fare for the remainder of this season, they should have spending power this winter. Suzuki is the only player currently under contract for the 2025 season, although the Cubs also have a $7MM club option for David Bote that year. Stroman’s contract runs through 2024, though he can opt out after the 2023 season. Kyle Hendricks and Yan Gomes could also be free agents after 2023, as they have options for 2024.

In short, there’s not a lot preventing the club from making a big splash this winter if they want to. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the team ran out Opening Day payrolls in the vicinity of $200MM from 2016 to 2019, but got that number below $150MM last year and this year. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource pegs their 2023 payroll at $94MM at the moment, then just $50MM in 2024 and $20MM in 2025. Arbitration-eligible players will add to those numbers, but not by a lot. If they want to be aggressive in getting out of this rebuild/retool/whatever period, the opportunity is there.

The Phillies, however, are in a very different situation. They had a very aggressive offseason, giving out big contracts to both Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber, pushing the club beyond the luxury tax line for the first time. Despite that aggressiveness, they’ve struggled over the first third of the season, going into today’s action with a record of 24-29, 4 1/2 games behind the Giants for the final NL Wild Card spot.

There was some speculation that they would dive into the shortstop sweepstakes this past winter, though they ultimately decided to stick with the in-house options of Didi Gregorius and prospect Bryson Stott. Gregorius is currently on the IL due to a sprained knee, but was performing okay before that. His .288/.338/.356 line amounts to a 97 wRC+, slightly below league average but much better than the 68 wRC+ he had last year. Regardless, he’s a free agent after this year, giving the club an opening next year. Stott could theoretically fill that void, though he’s struggled in his first taste of MLB action. Through 27 games, he’s hitting just .157/.222/.217 for a wRC+ of just 26. If the Phils were to go out and nab a big fish in free agency, Stott could spend more time in the minors or perhaps shift over to another infield position to try and force his way into the lineup, having played some second and third base as well.

Despite getting into luxury tax territory this year, the club should be able to be aggressive again next winter with many contracts coming off the books. Martinez puts their 2023 payroll at $129MM, well shy of this year’s $232MM, though that doesn’t include a $17MM option for Jean Segura, the $16MM option for Aaron Nola or salaries for arbitration-eligible players, including Rhys Hoskins. Regardless of whether they can turn their 2022 season around, it seems they may keep their foot on the gas pedal going forward, as they look to snap a postseason drought that goes back to 2011.

Red Sox Notes: Martinez, Bogaerts, Vazquez, Sale, Paxton

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J.D. Martinez’s five-year, $110MM deal with the Red Sox is up at season’s end, and the slugger again made clear this weekend that he’d love to return (link via Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe). “Would I love to stay here?” Martinez asked rhetorically. “Yeah. I’ve expressed that to ownership.” Martinez added that he told the Sox he was “really open” to an extension as far back as the 2019-20 offseason. However, he also acknowledged that, as far as contract talks are concerned, “nothing has really happened since I got here.” Martinez further noted that if a Boston reunion isn’t in the cards, he’s at least excited to have a wider range of potential suitors thanks to the advent of the universal designated hitter.

While many nine-figure free agent deals prove regrettable by the time they draw to a close, Martinez has been a mostly sound investment for the Sox. Although he struggled in the shortened 2020 season, he boasts an overall .298/.369/.548 batting line with 118 home runs through 2296 plate appearances since signing his deal. That includes a huge .321/.370/.541 line (164 wRC+) to begin the 2022 campaign. Martinez will turn 35 in August, but his bat isn’t showing many signs of slowing down even as he enters his mid-30s. Boston has about $92.5MM in guaranteed money on the books in 2023, but $20MM of that is allocated to Xander Bogaerts, who is all but a lock to exercise an opt-out in his contract (barring an extension).

More out of Boston…

  • While Bogaerts is almost certainly ticketed for the open market at the end of the season, the star shortstop left open the possibility of in-season extension talks over the weekend. His agent Scott Boras downplayed those chances, telling Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe (Twitter link) that extension talks with the Sox won’t take place during the regular season. Whether behind-the-scenes discussions take place or not, it has never seemed likely the sides will come to an agreement after they were extremely far apart in Spring Training. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported last month that Boston had offered an additional one year and $30MM to convince Bogaerts to forego his opt-out possibility. That’s well shy of the three-time All-Star’s likely market value, and Bogaerts implied over the weekend the team would have to significantly raise their offer were they to try to reignite talks. “I don’t know how this would work,” he said.”But if they talk to Scott behind closed doors and it’s something that’s fair, he can come to me. We’ll see how that goes.
  • The Red Sox “were quietly shopping” Christian Vazquez over the winter but (obviously) never lined up with a potential trade partner, writes Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic in her latest mailbag column. Boston exercised a $7MM club option on the 32-year-old catcher at the end of the 2021 season but was also reported to be heavily in the mix for Pirates catcher Jacob Stallings over the winter — before he was ultimately instead traded to Miami. Vazquez slugged 23 homers in the “juiced ball” season in 2019 and had a stronger 2020 campaign (on a rate basis). However, he’s struggled to a .252/.302/.344 output in 583 subsequent plate appearances (2022 included). McCaffrey suggests that if the Sox don’t right the ship, Vazquez could again be a trade candidate this summer, which would leave prospect Connor Wong and veteran Kevin Plawecki as the team’s primary catchers. Of course, Plawecki himself is a free agent at season’s end and could change hands in such a scenario — assuming he can bounce back from the dreadful .139/.179/.167 slash he’s posted through his first 40 plate appearances.
  • Injured Sox ace Chris Sale, who is on the 60-day IL with a stress fracture in his rib cage, has been cleared to begin throwing and is playing catch, tweets Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. At last check, Sale wasn’t throwing and was dealing with a non-baseball, non-Covid related medical issue, but it seems he’s put that past him and is officially progressing toward a return to the mound. The seven-time All-Star has thrown just 42 2/3 innings since the conclusion of the 2019 season, primarily due to Tommy John surgery. Speier also notes that fellow southpaw James Paxton is still receiving treatment and has yet to begin throwing as he works back from 2021 Tommy John surgery. The Sox announced earlier this month that Paxton was dealing with continued soreness in his elbow.
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