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Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Dodgers GM: Betts And Yamamoto Injuries Won’t Impact Deadline Plans

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The Dodgers were recently dealt a couple of significant blows, with both Mookie Betts and Yoshinobu Yamamoto slated for lengthy stays on the injured list. General manager Brandon Gomes addressed the injuries recently, per Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times, saying that the club was unlikely to alter their deadline plans as a reaction. “I actually don’t think it meaningfully changes anything at this point,” Gomes said, “With the expectation that those guys are gonna be back for the postseason.”

Betts was hit by a pitch on his hand and suffered a fracture, with an expected recovery time of six to eight weeks. Yamamoto has a more nebulous timeline with his strained rotator cuff, though the club is expecting him back at some point this season.

Those are obviously significant losses. Betts has more walks than strikeouts this year and has ten home runs as well, leading to a line of .304/.405/.488 and a 158 wRC+. He has done all that while essentially learning shortstop on the fly, having just been handed the job during Spring Training. Despite limited big league experience at the position, he seems to be doing a passable job. Outs Above Average has him at -4 this year but Defensive Runs Saved puts him at +4. FanGraphs has credited him with 3.5 wins above replacement so far on the season, second in the National League to his teammate Shohei Ohtani. Yamamoto, meanwhile, has an earned run average of 2.92 through his first 14 major league starts.

Subtracting those two players from the roster will undoubtedly have an impact on the club’s overall talent level, but it’s understandable that the Dodgers don’t plan to panic and completely change course. The club currently sports a record of 46-30 and the only club above .500 in the National League West. Each of the Diamondbacks, Giants and Padres are just below .500, with each of those three being either 9 or 9.5 games back.

That gives the Dodgers plenty of breathing room and pretty strong odds of winning the division, even with the injury challenges. The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs give them a 92.5% chance of taking the West while the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are even more bullish at 95.8%. Both of those outlets give the club around a 99% chance of getting some kind of playoff spot.

With that comfortable position in the standings, the club is likely going to be focusing on whatever moves put their club in best position to win games in October, as opposed to the interim. Going out to grab an innings eater for the back end of the rotation might stabilize things for the next few months but such a pitcher wouldn’t be a big factor in a playoff series when clubs can shorten their rotations to three or four pitchers.

Even without Yamamoto and Walker Buehler, who also landed on the injured list recently with a minor issue, the Dodgers currently have a healthy rotation of consisting of Tyler Glasnow, Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone and James Paxton. They have Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May and Kyle Hurt as options to come off the injured list later this year, as well as Yamamoto. Landon Knack is on the 40-man roster and pitching in Triple-A, potentially coming up to replace Buehler. River Ryan, one of the club’s top prospects, was recently reinstated from the minor league injured list and is pitching in Triple-A as well.

With all of those potential starters, they should be able to find a way to get through the regular season. The larger question will be whether there’s enough for a strong postseason rotation. Glasnow has been great this year but has a lengthy injury history. He’s never topped 120 innings in a major league season and is currently at 93. Yamamoto is now a question mark. Buehler has a 5.84 ERA on the year and is now on the shelf. Miller’s ERA is at 6.00 and he just came off the IL. Paxton and Stone have respective ERAs of 3.65 and 3.01 but less impressive peripherals.

While that group is likely enough to get the club into the postseason, their deadline moves will understandably be focused on how it will play once they get there. In his article, Harris suggests the Dodgers will be focused on high-impact starters, with Garrett Crochet of the White Sox and Jesús Luzardo of the Marlins listed as hypothetical examples. Though as he points out, both of those pitchers have multiple years of control and their respective clubs will set lofty asking prices.

At shortstop, the thinking is likely similar, as the club can get by for now with Miguel Rojas taking over for Betts. Rojas is an excellent fielder who has normally been unimpressive at the plate, with a career slash line of .259/.312/.357. He’s having a strong season, however, with a .288/.333/.449 line in 2024. Perhaps that will regress a bit as he moves from a part-time role to a full-time gig, but he could still be a serviceable shortstop with a numbers a bit lower than that.

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the club monitor the middle infield market in the weeks to come while Betts is out, as plenty of other players are struggling. Gavin Lux has received plenty of playing time at second base but is hitting .212/.261/.283 this year. Chris Taylor has moved between the infield and outfield but is sitting on a dismal line of .115/.211/.177. Enrique Hernández has also been in a multi-positional role and has better numbers than Taylor but his .201/.277/.309 line isn’t great either. Cavan Biggio was brought aboard for some extra infield cover with Max Muncy out of action but he’s hitting just .197/.325/.276 on the year between the Blue Jays and Dodgers.

Looking ahead to the postseason, it’s possible that Betts and Rojas could be the primary middle infield tandem if Betts is back and Rojas stays in good form, but the club may not rely on Rojas like that on account of his career numbers. Perhaps that will lead the club to make some kind of middle infield move between now and the end of July, but that was likely the case even before Betts got hurt.

Per the piece from Harris, the Dodgers are willing to put Betts back at shortstop later in the year but haven’t made a final decision. If they want a more experienced option at the position and want to upgrade on Rojas, it’s unclear who could be available. Harris lists Willy Adames and Bo Bichette as theoretical fits but also notes the difficulties in acquiring each. The Brewers have a healthy lead in their division, which likely means Adames is staying. As for Bichette, even if the Jays fall out of the race, there are reasons not to trade him. He’s having a down year and is currently on the IL, so the Jays may not want to sell low. With another year left on his contract, they may prefer to hold if they can’t get what they feel is fair value.

Other speculative shortstop targets may not be too appealing. The White Sox will certainly make Paul DeJong available and he’s having a nice bounceback year, but he still strikes out a ton and has been prone to long periods of ineffectiveness in the past. The Marlins would love to get something from Tim Anderson but he’s performing even worse than he did last year. Ha-Seong Kim is an impending free agent but the Padres are hovering in the playoff race and surely would prefer not to trade him to their division rival.

MLBTR Podcast: José Abreu’s Release, Betts and Yamamoto Hit The IL And Even More Injuries

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Do the Giants have a chance of getting Pete Alonso? Or will the Mets make additions if they carry the power of Grimace into the deadline? (32:15)
  • How should the Nationals address their outfield surplus? And where did all these good pitchers come from? (42:35)
  • What are the chances the White Sox package Luis Robert Jr. and Garrett Crochet at the deadline? And if they trade Crochet and Erick Fedde, how will they fill the rotation after? (49:55)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Dodgers Place Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Michael Grove On 15-Day Injured List

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5:49PM: Further tests revealed Yamamoto has a strained rotator cuff, manager Dave Roberts told DiGiovanna and other reporters today.  No timeline was given, as Roberts indicated that the injury is “not season ending, but it’s going to be some time.”

2:15PM: The Dodgers announced this afternoon that they’ve placed right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the 15-day injured list with triceps tightness. The club also placed right-hander Michael Grove on the 15-day injured list due to lat tightness. In corresponding moves, the club has recalled right-hander J.P. Feyereisen and selected the contract of right-hander Michael Petersen. To make room for Petersen on the 40-man roster, the Dodgers transferred right-hander Joe Kelly to the 60-day injured list.

That Yamamoto is headed for the injured list is hardly a surprise, as manager David Roberts indicated last night that a trip to the IL was likely for the righty after he exited his start last night after just two innings. Yamamoto’s departure from the rotation won’t require the Dodgers to turn to a spot starter, as right-hander Bobby Miller was already slated to return from the injured list and retake a spot in the starting rotation on Wednesday. That will allow him to seamlessly slide into the starting five alongside Tyler Glasnow, James Paxton, Walker Buehler, and Gavin Stone while Yamamoto is on the shelf.

What remains unclear, however, is just how long Yamamoto will be out. Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times indicated earlier this afternoon that the Dodgers plan to send Yamamoto for further testing beyond what had already been scheduled for him in the aftermath of his start last night, and it’s possible the specifics of the right-hander’s injury as well as his timetable for return will remain uncertain until the results come back from those tests. Of course, an absence of any length for Yamamoto is a frustrating turn of events for the Dodgers. The club’s $325MM man has been more or less exactly as advertised this year, with a 2.41 ERA and a 28.5% strikeout rate across his past 12 starts.

As for Grove, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register reports that his injury is expected to be a relatively short-term one. The right-hander has served in multi-inning relief for the Dodgers throughout the year to this point and has struggled in terms of results with a 5.06 ERA in 37 1/3 innings of work, although it’s worth noting that the righty sports a strong 28.7% strikeout rate and a 3.14 FIP that suggests some of his struggles could be due to a deflated 62.5% strand rate. Interestngly, Grove struggled badly at the very start of the year with an 11.74 ERA across his first four outings, and has again begun to struggle lately with a 9.00 ERA in his last three appearances. In 21 appearances between April 10 and June 7, however, the right-hander was dominant with a 2.45 ERA, and incredible 37.1% strikeout rate, and a 2.75 FIP in 25 2/3 innings of work. If a trip to the IL allows Grove to rediscover that form going forward, it would surely provide the Dodgers bullpen with a massive boost headed as the calendar flips to July.

Joining the roster in the duo’s place are Feyreisen and Petersen. Feyreisen rejoins the club after missing the entire 2023 season due to injury and struggling somewhat in his first games back this year, with a 6.00 ERA and 4.81 FIP in nine appearances. Those struggles have continued at the Triple-A level, where he’s posted a 7.47 ERA in 15 2/3 frames thanks in part to a deflated 16.7% strikeout rate and four home runs allowed in that time. There is some room for optimism regarding the 31-year-old, however; the righty looked excellent in his seven appearances with the Dodgers at the big league level during the month of May prior to his demotion, where he struck out 26.9% of batters faced in 7 1/3 scoreless frames. If Feyreisen can return to the form he showed in the majors last month, he could be an asset for the club alongside fellow middle relief arms Yohan Ramirez and Anthony Banda.

As for Petersen, the 30-year-old is in his first year as a member of the Dodgers organization and will make his MLB debut when he first gets into a game. The right-hander was selected in the late rounds of the 2012, ’13, and ’14 drafts before finally signing with the Brewers after being selected in the 17th round of the 2015 draft. He spent five years in the lower levels of the minors with Milwaukee before joining the Rockies prior to the 2020 campaign, although he didn’t pitch during the 2021 campaign and made just one appearance in 2022.

Petersen had his first full season since 2019 last year and pitched quite well between the Double- and Triple-A levels, with a combined 3.46 ERA in 41 2/3 innings of work with a 26.3% strikeout rate. That performance was enough to get Petersen a minor league deal with the Dodgers this past winter, and he continued to show solid results at the highest level of the minors during his time with the club at the Triple-A level. This year’s results were even better than the last, as he posted a sterling 1.61 ERA while striking out a whopping 36.9% of batters faced. Those exciting results were enough to get Petersen his first look at the big league level, where he’ll join Feyreisen in the middle of the L.A. bullpen.

As for Kelly, the move to the 60-day IL appears to be more or less procedural for the right-hander. He’s been on the injured list with a shoulder strain since the beginning of May and has not yet begun a rehab assignment, suggesting that the 36-year-old was already likely to spend at least the next couple of weeks on the shelf. He’ll now be eligible to be activated for the first time on July 5.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto Exits Start With Triceps Tightness

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11:58pm: There is a “high probability” that the Dodgers will place Yamamoto on the 15-day injured list, Roberts told reporters (including DiGiovanna) after the game. Roberts went on to note that he “wasn’t part of that conversation” if Yamamoto spoke to the coaching staff about tightness during warmups prior to the game, adding that there was “no point in time” where Dodgers brass felt he wouldn’t be able to make his start.

11:09pm: Yamamoto told reporters (including Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times) that his start was pushed back due to the tightness in his triceps. He felt it again while warming up for his start and mentioned it to Dodgers coaches but didn’t think it was “serious enough” to be scratched from his start. DiGiovanna adds that Yamamoto does not believe the issue to be a serious one, although he’s likely to undergo an MRI tomorrow.

8:57pm: Dodgers right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto exited his start against the Royals tonight after just two innings with what the club referred to as triceps tightness. He was replaced by right-hander Michael Grove to start the third inning. As noted by MLB.com’s Juan Toribio, Yamamoto’s velocity was down throughout his abbreviated outing. The righty’s fastball bottomed out at just 92.9 mph, nearly three ticks below his 95.7 mph average to this point in the season.

The shortened start is particularly notable given the fact that the Dodgers pushed Yamamoto’s start back earlier this week. He was initially scheduled to take the ball against the Rangers on Thursday before his start was moved to tonight’s game against Kansas City. Manager Dave Roberts did not indicate at the time of that announcement that the club had any concerns regarding a possible injury for Yamamoto, instead noting that they were building additional rest into his schedule as he makes the transition from pitching once a week in Nippon Professional Baseball to every five days in MLB.

While the severity of Yamamoto’s injury is not yet clear, it would hardly be a surprise to see the Dodgers opt to place Yamamoto on the 15-day injured list following the game. The 25-year-old hurler was the second most coveted free agent of the past offseason behind only teammate Shohei Ohtani thanks to his youth and immense talent. The sweepstakes for his services ended in late December of last year when he inked a 12-year deal with the Dodgers worth $325MM—a record total for any full-time pitcher. Given L.A.’s significant investment in Yamamoto, it would be understandable for the club to act with an abundance of caution and prioritize the right-hander’s long term health.

Fortunately for the Dodgers, replacing Yamamoto in the rotation should be a relatively seamless endeavor for the club if it ends up being necessary. Right-hander Bobby Miller is scheduled to be reinstated from the injured list this coming Wednesday after missing the past two months with shoulder inflammation. Miller, who sports a 3.90 ERA and 3.54 FIP in 25 starts since he made his big league debut last May, could slot into the club’s rotation alongside Tyler Glasnow, James Paxton, Walker Buehler, and Gavin Stone without any significant hiccups.

Even so, the loss of Yamamoto for any amount of time would be a noteworthy blow. After a difficult start to his major league career against the Padres during the Korea Series where he surrendered five runs while recording just three outs, the right-hander has been nothing short of spectacular. In 71 innings of work across his past 12 starts, Yamamoto has posted a 2.41 ERA with an excellent 28.5% strikeout rate and a walk rate of just 5.3%. Yamamoto has paired those strong ratios with a strong 48.7% groundball rate as well. That type of dominant production is difficult to replace, even for a club that has the second best rotation by ERA in the National League behind only the Phillies.

While details regarding Yamamoto’s injury are currently scarce, it’s worth noting that a significant elbow injury could trigger a clause in his contract that alters the dates of his opt-out opportunities. Yamamoto’s contract reportedly includes opt-out opportunities following the 2029 and ’31 seasons, but if he either undergoes Tommy John surgery or spends at least 134 consecutive days on the IL due to an issue with his right elbow prior to that first opt out in 2029, his chances to opt-out would be delayed until after the 2031 and ’33 seasons.

Dombrowski On Phillies’ Offseason, Wheeler, Rojas, Painter

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Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski joined the 94 WIP Morning show with Joe DeCamara and Jon Ritchie on Wednesday, touching on a broad-reaching number of Phillies topics (Audacy link to the entire 20-minute interview). It’s a good listen for fans of any club — Phils fans in particular, of course — wherein Philadelphia’s top decision-maker discusses his team’s relatively quiet offseason, the state of the rotation and the outfield, Zack Wheeler’s future with the club, top prospect Andrew Painter’s health and quite a bit more.

Among the more notable takeaways was Dombrowski’s reply when asked a potential late move for one of the remaining big-name starters on the board. Dombrowski didn’t comment on either Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery by name but expressed that he’s content with the club’s rotation. As far back as early November, Dombrowski touted fifth starter Cristopher Sanchez as someone the team believes can be a big regular in the rotation, and his comments today mesh with that line of thinking. Dombrowski didn’t expressly rule out the addition of another starter but implied that the team wasn’t about to pay market rate for one of the remaining names out there.

“I can’t tell you that somebody doesn’t fall into your lap at some point where you say, ’Gee, that’s an opportunity we can’t turn down,'” Dombrowski said. That suggests a willingness to remain open-minded to some late, unexpected drops in price but doesn’t sound like a portent for an aggressive pursuit of a top-tier free agent.

That said, there was at least one name the Phillies considered worthy of an exception: Yoshinobu Yamamoto. It’s already been reported that the Phillies were a legitimate suitor for the 25-year-old NPB ace before he signed a record deal with the Dodgers, and Dombrowski now confirms that his team was “very involved” in Yamamoto’s market. The veteran baseball ops leader went so far as to say that others might be “shocked” to learn how much money the Phillies ultimately offered — naturally, he declined to specify — before indicating that Yamamoto simply had a preference to be a Dodger. The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber reported last week that the Phils also made a 12-year offer, although it’s unclear if they were willing to match the $325MM guarantee which Yamamoto received from Los Angeles.

Obviously, any multi-year addition to the rotation could provide the Phillies with some insurance in the event that Wheeler departs as a free agent at season’s end. But Dombrowski called Wheeler “one of the best pitchers in baseball” and stressed that it’s “important” and a “priority” for the Phillies find a way to re-sign the right-hander.

Wheeler, 34 in May, has outperformed the five-year, $118MM contract he signed with the Phillies in the 2019-20 offseason. He’s garnered Cy Young consideration in three of his four Phillies seasons, highlighted by a second-place finish in 2021 and a sixth-place finish in 2023.

Over the past four seasons, he’s tied with Corbin Burnes for the fourth-most innings in Major League Baseball and leads MLB in FanGraphs’ wins above replacement. He’s notched a tidy 3.06 ERA despite typically playing in front of one of the game’s weakest defenses, thanks in large part to a sharp 26.7% strikeout rate and excellent 5.3% walk rate. A new contract for Wheeler would begin with his age-35 season, which caps his earning potential to an extent, but recent history has shown teams are willing to pay elite arms even at the late stages of their careers.

A look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker highlights some recent examples of age-35 (or older) pitchers cashing in. Jacob deGrom signed a five-year deal with a $37MM annual value, while Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander both inked multi-year deals at a $43.333MM AAV. The AAV on Yu Darvish’s extension, beginning in his age-37 season, is just $18MM — but that was a function of the Padres drawing out the term in order to drive down the annual salary for luxury-tax purposes. Darvish still secured a $90MM guarantee on that frontloaded deal and was two years older than Wheeler will be in year one of a theoretical free agent pact or extension. Suffice it to say, Wheeler will be the relatively rare big leaguer who has a chance at multiple nine-figure contracts in his career.

On the point of the team’s defense, Dombrowski cited that as a primary reason the team has not pursued additional outfield help with much aggression this spring. Young Johan Rojas dazzled with his defensive ratings (+15 Defensive Runs Saved, +6 Outs Above Average) in just 392 innings of center field work. Asked if Rojas will be the team’s primary center fielder this season, Dombrowski all but anointed the 23-year-old.

“Likely? Yes,” Dombrowski replied. “Definitively? No. We saw enough the last couple months in August and September that we liked what we saw. I’ve talked to our hitting people at length about his progress over the winter time. He’s worked extremely hard. He’s made adjustments that he needs to make. I’m not saying he’s going to come up and hit .300 with 20 home runs off the bat, but I think he can do enough offensively and contribute from an offensive perspective. And when you add his speed and his defense, all of a sudden he becomes a real plus for us. So yes, I do think he’ll be up, but he has to earn that, too. We’re not just going to give it to him.”

Even as he made those caveats, Dombrowski also spoke of the team’s desire to get Kyle Schwarber more time at designated hitter and to keep Bryce Harper at first base as a means of improving the defense (as opposed to the alternative scenario where Schwarber plays left field and Rhys Hoskins were re-signed to split time between DH and first base). Rojas’ bat looked impressive during his brief regular-season look, as he hit .302/.342/.430 in 164 plate appearances, but that was buoyed by an unsustainable .410 average on balls in play. His bat went ice cold in the playoffs, too, as Rojas fell into a woeful 4-for-43 swoon and struck out in a third of his plate appearances.

Despite the postseason struggles, it appears Rojas will have first crack at the regular center field job. The Phillies are generally thin in terms of outfield depth, and this afternoon’s DFA of Simon Muzziotti could add to that if he’s traded or claimed by another club. There’s perhaps the chance that the Phils could add a bench bat to the mix, and outfield would be a natural spot, given the lackluster offensive contributions of Jake Cave and limited track record of Cristian Pache.

Dombrowski acknowledged the possibility of adding a bench bat, simply noting “that might end up happening,” but he didn’t characterize it as a major item that’s yet to be checked off the to-do list. Speaking in general terms, the Phillies’ president again implied that between wanting to give Rojas a real chance and the veteran nature of much of his roster, free agents have seen greater opportunity for playing time with other clubs thus far. There’s still quite a few names yet unsigned, so it stands to reason that the Phils could eventually find a bargain addition to deepen the mix. Pache, Cave and utility infielder Edmundo Sosa are all out of options, however, so adding a player to the bench mix would likely mean jettisoning someone like Cave, who’s already agreed to a $1MM salary for the 2024 season. That isn’t likely to be a major roadblock to any further additions, but it’ll factor into the calculus all the same.

The Phillies will effectively return the same bullpen in 2024, though again, Dombrowski indicated it’s not necessarily for lack of trying. He noted that the team has been in on at least “a couple” of notable names but that one, in particular, took an opportunity to be a starting pitcher elsewhere. Another simply preferred to be closer to his home on the west coast. Again, Dombrowski didn’t mention names, though Jordan Hicks and Reynaldo Lopez stand out as two bullpen arms who surprisingly landed rotation opportunities in free agency (Hicks in San Francisco, Lopez in Atlanta). Hicks, in particular, was rumored to be on the Phillies’ radar as a free agent.

Starting pitching depth, too, has been a recent area the Phillies have been searching. They signed former Braves first-rounder Kolby Allard to a split big league deal last month due in no small part to the fact that he has a minor league option remaining. That same line of thinking surely influenced today’s claim of righty Max Castillo from the Red Sox.

The Phillies have top prospects Mick Abel and Griff McGarry working through the minor league system, and while both could make their debuts in 2024, neither has yet pitched even five innings above the Double-A level. Painter was a rotation candidate early last season but wound up going down with an elbow injury that ultimately required Tommy John surgery. Dombrowski said in this morning’s interview that Painter has begun “tossing” a ball recently and is on schedule but that the organization is “looking toward 2025” with regard to the prized righty and isn’t planning on him pitching in games this season. There’s always the possibility his recovery progresses more quickly than expected, but the 20-year-old right-hander doesn’t appear to be someone the Phillies are banking on for even a late-season cameo.

MLBTR Podcast: Yamamoto Fallout, the Sale/Grissom Trade and Transaction Roundup

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Yamamoto’s Opt-Out Dates Are Conditional On Elbow Health

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The Dodgers signed NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a 12-year, $325MM deal that set the record for the largest pitching guarantee. That included a pair of opt-out chances for the 25-year-old righty. He could be in line for an even loftier deal a few years down the line if he continues to perform like a top-of-the-rotation starter against MLB competition.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported that Yamamoto would be able to opt out of the contract after the 2029 and ’31 seasons. According to the Associated Press, that’s in part conditional on the pitcher’s arm health in the first six years of the deal. If Yamamoto undergoes Tommy John surgery or spends 134+ consecutive days on the injured list with a right elbow concern between 2024-29, his opt-out chances would be delayed until following the 2031 and ’33 seasons. In the absence of that significant of an elbow injury, he’d be able to opt out after 2029 and ’31 as initially reported.

Interestingly, the contract also includes an opt-out provision designed to keep him from being traded. The AP reports that if the Dodgers trade Yamamoto, that would vest an opt-out clause that’d allow him to become a free agent at the end of that season. While it’s not true no-trade protection, it makes it very difficult to deal him. Any acquiring team would have to account for the possibility that Yamamoto leaves the following winter.

Of course, the Dodgers didn’t sign Yamamoto with any intention of trading him in the foreseeable future. They’re going to be all-in for years to come, likely for the entire duration of Shohei Ohtani’s decade-long contract. Ohtani’s willingness to defer $68MM of his $70MM annual salaries afforded the organization more short-term leeway to acquire and extend Tyler Glasnow and to sign Yamamoto.

Yamamoto’s contract contains a massive $50MM signing bonus. The AP reports that he’ll be paid $20MM by the start of February and the other $30MM by July 1. His annual salary structure breaks down as follows:

  • $5MM in 2024
  • $10MM in 2025
  • $12MM in 2026
  • $26MM annually from 2027-29
  • $29MM annually from 2030-31
  • $28MM annually from 2032-35

He’ll thus be paid $155MM over the next six seasons. If he doesn’t incur a serious elbow injury, he’d be weighing whether to opt out of six years and $170MM once the 2029-30 offseason arrives. Were Yamamoto to suffer an elbow injury within the first six years and opt in after the 2031 and ’33 seasons, the Dodgers receive a $10MM option (no buyout) covering the 2036 season, the AP reports.

The salary breakdown does not affect the contract’s average annual value. The deal counts for approximately $27.08MM each year from a luxury tax perspective. The Dodgers also owe a $50.625MM posting fee to Yamamoto’s former team, the Orix Buffaloes, though that is separate from the CBT calculation.

Dodgers Sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto To 12-Year Deal

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For the second time this month, the Dodgers have made a record-setting free agent strike. Los Angeles announced the signing of Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a 12-year contract. The NPB star lands a reported $325MM guarantee, an all-time high for a pitcher. The deal comes with a near-$51MM posting fee to the Orix Buffaloes of Nippon Professional Baseball, bringing the overall commitment north of $375MM. Yamamoto is represented by Wasserman.

“I’d like to thank everyone in the Orix organization, the Dodger organization and all the people close to me who have given me so much support throughout this free-agent process,” Yamamoto said in a statement released by the team. “I am truly excited to wear Dodger Blue and can’t wait to play in front of a packed Dodger Stadium.”

Yamamoto receives a massive $50MM signing bonus and a pair of opt-out opportunities. Those are conditional on the status of his elbow but would allow him to retest free agency after the 2029 and ’31 seasons if he stays healthy. If he doesn’t incur a serious elbow injury, he’d be weighing whether to opt out of the last six years and $170MM once the 2029-30 offseason arrives. The deal does not contain any deferred money.

The right-hander has been the best pitcher in Japan for the past few seasons. He spent parts of seven years with the Buffaloes. By his age-20 campaign, he’d emerged as one of the top pitchers at the second-highest level of professional baseball in the world. Yamamoto turned in a 1.95 ERA that season, kicking off a run of five straight years allowing no more than 2.20 earned runs per nine.

That includes sub-2.00 ERA showings over his final trio of seasons. Yamamoto has won the Sawamura Award as Japan’s best pitcher in all three years. He worked to a 1.39 ERA over 193 2/3 innings in 2021, followed by a 1.68 mark in 193 frames the next season. Yamamoto somehow turned in an even better year in his final season, pitching to a microscopic 1.21 ERA through 168 frames.

Among NPB pitchers to reach 100 innings, Yamamoto’s ERA was more than half a run lower than anyone else’s. (Shoki Murakami finished second with a 1.75 mark in 144 1/3 frames). Only Shota Imanaga, who is also available to MLB teams this offseason via the posting system, topped Yamamoto’s 169 strikeouts. He punched out 26.6% of opposing hitters against a tidy 4.4% walk rate.

It’s about as dominant a body of work as a pitcher can build before he faces any MLB hitters. The elite production is supported by both scouting and quantitive evaluations of Yamamoto’s arsenal. Evaluators are nearly unanimous in projecting him as a high-octane major league starter. Conservative estimates on his upside point to a future as a high-end #2 starter, while other scouts have pegged him as a potential ace.

Eno Sarris of the Athletic recently broke down Yamamoto’s repertoire. He suggested Yamamoto brandishes three plus or better offerings highlighted by a split-finger that should be among the best in the majors. The righty worked in the mid-upper 90s with his fastball in shorter stints during the World Baseball Classic. He also sports a promising curveball and a cutter as his third and fourth offerings, while evaluators praise his athleticism and command.

Yamamoto would have been in high demand even if he were in his late 20s or early 30s, the standard age for a free agent pitcher. That he debuted in NPB as an 18-year-old and was made available via the posting system only adds to the appeal. Yamamoto turned 25 in August, making him the first marquee free agent pitcher that age since Masahiro Tanaka signed during the 2013-14 offseason. He’ll be paid through his age-36 season.

To the extent there are concerns about Yamamoto, they’re limited to his lack of MLB experience and a smaller 5’10” frame. That hasn’t worried many evaluators, though, and they’re clearly not issues for the Dodgers.

Entering the offseason, it was widely believed Yamamoto would land the largest contract ever for a player coming over from NPB. It’d have been a far bolder prediction to peg him for the largest deal of any pitcher in major league history. That’s what he’ll receive, though, setting the mark in both contract length and guarantee. He’s the first pitcher in recent memory to reach even the 10-year mark. The guarantee edges past the $324MM which Gerrit Cole landed with the Yankees during the 2019-20 offseason. Yamamoto’s deal stretches three more seasons than Cole’s does, but his camp is surely pleased with the guarantee record even if it required slightly lowering the annual salary.

The deal comes with a $27.08MM average annual value. Regardless of the precise salary distribution, that’s the relevant factor for the Dodgers’ competitive balance tax picture. That pushes L.A. well into the third tier of luxury tax penalization. Roster Resource calculates the club’s CBT number in the $282MM range.

The Dodgers are set to pay the tax for a third consecutive season. They’re taxed at a 50% rate for spending between $237MM and $257MM, 62% for their next $20MM, and a 95% clip for spending between $277MM and $297MM. (They’ll be taxed at a 110% rate for any dollars above $297MM.) By pushing the Dodgers from around $255MM to $282MM from a tax perspective, the contract adds roughly $18.2MM in tax payments. It also means that future acquisitions will come with an elevated tax height.

On top of the money to Yamamoto and the tax payments, the Dodgers are on the hook for a huge sum to Orix. Under the terms of the NPB/MLB posting system, a posting fee is calculated as 20% of a deal’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of further spending. That comes out to $50.625MM which the Dodgers owe to the Buffaloes.

It’s a staggering outlay, one that pushes near the $400MM mark in aggregate. It’s the kind of massive strike the Dodgers envisioned in the wake of the Shohei Ohtani signing. The defending AL MVP deferred $680MM of his $700MM deal until 2034-43. That left plenty of money at the front office’s disposal to fix the starting rotation. With Ohtani unable to pitch until 2025, he signed with a team that only had Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller as locks for the Opening Day rotation.

Within a couple weeks, the Dodgers have constructed a star-studded pitching staff to complement their strong bullpen and loaded lineup. Los Angeles acquired and promptly extended Tyler Glasnow. Adding Yamamoto to the group gives them a potentially elite front four. There’s still some risk. Glasnow and Buehler have concerning injury histories, while neither Yamamoto nor Miller has pitched a full season in MLB. Yet it’s also not difficult to see the path to excellent results regardless of whomever takes the final spot. Ryan Yarbrough, Emmet Sheehan and Michael Grove project as the top internal options, but it’d be foolish to rule out the Dodgers adding a veteran arm to continue their all-in push.

Aggressive as the signing is for L.A., they weren’t meaningfully above their top competitors in the bidding. Martino reports that the Yankees put forth a 10-year, $300MM offer, while the Mets put the same $325MM figure on the table. According to Martino, Yamamoto’s camp had sought opt-out provisions after the fifth and eighth seasons in those discussions. The Giants, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Phillies were also in the running down to the final week.

In the end, it seems Yamamoto preferred the Dodgers to the other clubs that were seriously involved. The Athletic’s Will Sammon reports that the Mets first presented the $325MM offer, which the Dodgers agreed to match. He’ll join Ohtani, Glasnow, Buehler, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith on a team that’s likely to enter the 2024 campaign as the most popular World Series pick.

The rest of the clubs will look elsewhere. The Mets seem likely to have a fairly quiet offseason, as they reportedly viewed Yamamoto as a unique free agent based on his youth and talent. They’re not expected to pivot to the next tiers of free agency. The Yankees, Giants, Blue Jays and Red Sox could all still be in play for top-of-the-market talent, either on the rotation front or at other positions. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery now stand atop the starting pitching class, while Cody Bellinger is arguably the best remaining overall free agent. The market could also now accelerate for Imanaga, the #2 NPB pitcher who has until mid-January to sign with an MLB team.

Jack Curry of the YES Network first reported that Yamamoto would sign with the Dodgers for more than $300MM. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the 12-year, $325MM term. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale was first with the $50MM signing bonus, while Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the absence of deferrals. Passan reported the two opt-out possibilities.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

West Notes: Buehler, Kershaw, Rangers, Astros, Giants, Yamamoto

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The Dodgers have long seemed likely to lean on the services of right-hander Walker Buehler next season as he returns from rehabbing Tommy John surgery, which will have kept him away from the major league mound for nearly two years by the time Opening Day 2024 rolls around. While the club has recently bolstered its rotation with the additions of Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow, the club’s starting corps still offers little certainty beyond that duo, Buehler, and sophomore right-hander Bobby Miller even as youngsters like Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone show promise.

According to Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, the club may be more careful with Buehler’s return to action than initially expected. While the right-hander is expected to be at full strength for Spring Training, Plunkett indicates that the club intends to limit Buehler’s innings in 2024, though he relays comments from GM Brandon Gomes that indicate the club is likely to be “flexible” regarding the specific innings total Buehler is allowed to reach and his schedule for the 2024 campaign as a whole. Plunkett goes on to suggest that one possibility would be delaying the start of Buehler’s 2024 season in order to ensure he’ll be available to the Dodgers come October.

If the Dodgers do intend to have Buehler sit out the start of the season, it would further incentivize the club to add additional depth to its rotation even after landing both Yamamoto and Glasnow. Even if the club ends up reuniting with longtime ace Clayton Kershaw, the veteran lefty isn’t expected to return to the mound until sometime next summer after undergoing offseason shoulder surgery. Adding an additional starting pitching option who figures to be ready to go on Opening Day along with Yamamoto, Glasnow, and Miller would allow the club to have the likes of Sheehan, Stone, and Ryan Yarbrough battle for the fifth starting job entering the season rather than using them to cover multiple rotation spots.

More from around MLB’s West divisions…

  • While he has re-upped with the Dodgers on one-year pacts each of the past two offseasons, it doesn’t appear that Kershaw’s return to L.A. is necessarily guaranteed, as Kershaw’s hometown Rangers have been frequently connected to the veteran lefty this offseason on the heels of their first World Series championship in franchise history. While the club already has Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Tyler Mahle all targeting midseason returns from surgeries of their own, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that Scherzer’s recent surgery hasn’t deterred the Rangers from their pursuit of the 3-time Cy Young Award winner. While Kershaw has struggled to stay healthy in recent years, he’s been as valuable as ever when he manages to take the mound with a 2.67 ERA and 3.23 FIP in 78 starts since the start of the 2020 season.
  • Astros center field prospect Jacob Melton was a hot commodity on the trade market at the trade deadline this year, as noted by Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Rome relays comments from Houston GM Dana Brown who told a podcast run by the Astros that Melton was “the one guy [he] was afraid to give away” but that he was asked after in “almost every” trade conversation last summer. Rome goes on to note some officials in the organization internally valued him more highly than top prospect Drew Gilbert, who was part of the package the club dealt to New York to re-acquire Justin Verlander. Melton, 23, was the club’s second-round pick in the 2022 draft and slashed .245/.334/.467 across 99 games split between the High-A and Double-A levels last year.
  • While the Giants ultimately fell short in their pursuit of Yamamoto, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that the club was “in the mix right until the very end” and that Yamamoto was impressed enough with San Francisco’s pitch that the club would have been the “West Coast finalist” for his services had the Dodgers not entered the fray after signing Shohei Ohtani. A source indicated to Slusser that Ohtani’s presence on the Dodgers played a role in Yamamoto’s decision to ultimately sign with the club for a record-breaking $325MM guaranteed over twelve years.

Phillies Prioritizing Extension With Zack Wheeler

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The Phillies’ “No. 1 priority” for the remainder of the offseason “is signing ace Zack Wheeler to a contract extension,” MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki writes.  Wheeler is set to be a free agent next winter, as he is entering the final season of his five-year, $118MM contract.

Four seasons in, that deal has been an unqualified success from the Phillies’ perspective.  Wheeler has the most fWAR (19.3) of any starter in baseball since the start of the 2020 season, as he has posted a 3.06 ERA, 26.7% strikeout rate, 5.3% walk rate, and 47% grounder rate over 629 1/3 regular-season innings in a Philadelphia uniform.  The right-hander has been even more dominant during the postseason, delivering a 2.42 ERA over 63 1/3 playoff innings to help carry the Phillies to an NL pennant and an NLCS appearance over the last two seasons.

There aren’t many red flags on Wheeler as he enters his age-34 season, even if his 3.61 ERA in 2023 was the highest of his Philadelphia tenure.  He generated fewer grounders and allowed a bit more hard contact than usual, and Wheeler relied more heavily on his signature four-seamer than ever before — he reduced his cutter usage since the secondary pitch wasn’t as effective as it had been in 2021-22.

Health-wise, Wheeler underwent a Tommy John surgery in 2015 and battled some other arm problems during his time with the Mets in 2016-17.  He has been quite durable ever since, and a month-long bout of forearm tendinitis late in the 2022 season ended up being relatively minor, as Wheeler returned in strong form for the Phillies’ playoff run.

With his track record of success and durability, Wheeler figures to be one of the most sought-after members of the 2024-25 free agent class, even if he’ll be turning 35 in May 2025.  As such, Wheeler and his representatives at Wasserman might seek out a bit of a premium from the Phillies in order to keep the righty from testing the market.  A four-year extension isn’t an unreasonable ask given Wheeler’s relatively clean recent health history, and topping the $23.6MM average annual value on his current contract seems like a given.

The Phillies have obviously shown a willingness to spend big in acquiring and retaining star players over the last few seasons, even if this hasn’t manifested itself in many actual extensions.  Jose Alvarado and Seranthony Dominguez are the only Phillies to sign extensions during Dave Dombrowski’s three-plus years as president of baseball operations, and those relatively modest deals (two years and $18.55MM in new money for Alvarado, two years and $7.25MM for Dominguez) aren’t in the stratosphere of what it’ll take to lock up Wheeler.  While the Phillies kept Aaron Nola and J.T. Realmuto in the fold on new contracts, the Phils let both players reach the open market first before eventually re-signing the duo.

It was just over a month ago that Nola was re-signed to a seven-year, $172MM deal, cementing the right-hander as a staple of the Phils’ rotation through the rest of the decade.  Nola joins Bryce Harper and Trea Turner as Philadelphia players who are already signed through at least the 2030 season, plus Realmuto and Kyle Schwarber are on the books through 2025, and Taijuan Walker and Nick Castellanos are signed through 2026.  An extension for Wheeler would put yet another hefty contract on the team’s ledger, though spending big on star talent has long been Dombrowski’s M.O.  The Phillies have exceeded the luxury tax in each of the last two seasons and are projected to be well over at least the first tax threshold in 2024, so owner John Middleton isn’t showing any signs of cutting back given how close the Phillies have come to a championship.

That said, it seems like a lot of the heavy lifting is over on the Phillies’ 2023-24 offseason work, now that Nola has been re-signed and Yoshinobu Yamamoto is officially off the market.  Signing Yamamoto would have arguably been a luxury for the team, yet the team viewed him as a special player worthy of a strong push, and Dombrowski told Zolecki and other reporters that “I think we were extremely competitive” in at least getting Yamamoto’s attention.

“We were aggressive. When we made our presentation [to Yamamoto’s representatives], I think our guys did a tremendous job,” Dombrowski said. “I think they presented the organization well….I don’t think it had anything to do with anything else, he just preferred to be a Dodger.  Ultimately he was just not a person attuned to coming to Philly.”

In terms of further pursuits, Dombrowski said other additions would come “more around the edges” of the roster, since so much of Philadelphia’s 26-man is already set.  This will take the form of bullpen help and depth/swingman type of pitchers for the rotation, and Dombrowski downplayed the idea of adding another outfielder.  With Harper now the regular first baseman and Schwarber the regular DH, the Phillies will have Castellanos, Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas, Cristian Pache, Jake Cave, Simon Muzziotti, and utilitymen Weston Wilson and Kody Clemens all in the mix for outfield playing time.

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