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Yuli Gurriel

Latest On Yuli Gurriel, Astros

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Longtime Astros first baseman Yuli Gurriel remains one of the most recognizable names on the free-agent market, but it’s been a generally quiet offseason with regard to interest in the former batting champion and Gold Glove winner. The 38-year-old has drawn interest from the Marlins, Twins and incumbent Astros, but Miami reportedly backed down in its pursuit of Gurriel late last month. Newly minted Astros GM Dana Brown spoke to the Houston media yesterday and touched on Gurriel, effusing praise but also rather candidly suggesting they may not have enough playing time for him following the signing of Jose Abreu earlier in the winter (Twitter link, with video, via Mark Berman of Houston’s FOX 26).

“The tough part about Gurriel is he’s so well-liked,” said Brown. “In the clubhouse, he was outstanding. The players love him. The coaches love him. When we signed Abreu, it makes it tough to go out and get Gurriel because now it’s more of a want as opposed to a need. I think you have to stick with the needs before you jump into the wants, because if you get into the wants, now you have too much of a surplus in one area and it causes weaknesses in other areas. We love the player and would love to have him back, but we have to figure out if there’s any room where he can get at-bats with Abreu here.”

The apparent lack of a market for Gurriel isn’t a total surprise, as he’s coming off a down season in which he slashed just .242/.288/.360 with a career-low (for a full season) eight home runs inn 584 plate appearances. Gurriel won a batting title as recently as 2021, when he hit .319/.383/.462, and he took home a Gold Glove at first base that season as well. However, even his typically strong defensive grades took a nosedive in 2022; Gurriel rated as a negative in the eyes of Defensive Runs Saved (-2), Ultimate Zone Rating (-0.2) and Statcast’s Outs Above Average (-9).

The downturn at the plate wasn’t merely a matter of poor fortune, either. While Gurriel was plagued, to an extent, by a .266 average on balls in play that falls well shy of his career .294 mark, some of that is attributable to a decline in the quality of his contact. His line-drive rate dipped to a career-low 18.5%, for instance, and Statcast measured his average exit velocity (88.2 mph), hard-hit rate (35.4%) and barrel rate (just 1.9%) at career-low levels. Furthermore, while Gurriel’s strikeout rate remained excellent relative to league-average 22.4%, his 12.5% mark was nonetheless a career-worst. That’s a testament to his superlative bat-to-ball skills, but the handful of extra punchouts still further dragged down his overall production.

Brown’s comments Thursday certainly don’t sound as though they’re a portent for a reunion with Gurriel, however beloved he may be in the clubhouse and throughout the organization as a whole. With Abreu taking the lion’s share of time at first base and a corner outfield/designated hitter mix slated to feature productive hitters like Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez and Michael Brantley, it would indeed be tough to bring Gurriel aboard as anything more than a bench bat. But while the Marlins were weighing Gurriel as an option to split time between first base, second base and third base, it’s doubtful every team would consider him for such a versatile role. With the exception of two emergency innings at third base in 2021, Gurriel has played exclusively as a first baseman or designated hitter dating back to Opening Day 2020.

The Twins have more of an opening at first base, where longtime prospect Alex Kirilloff is the favorite for at-bats right now. Kirilloff, a former first-round pick and top-20 prospect in the sport, has just a .251/.295/.398 slash in 387 big league plate appearances, but that production has been adversely impacted by wrist injuries that have required a pair of surgeries. He’s a career .323/.378/.518 hitter in the minors and only just turned 25 this offseason, so Minnesota undoubtedly hopes he can be a big part of the outlook moving forward. Gurriel would give them a right-handed complement to the left-handed Kirilloff and provide some insurance should injuries again sideline him, but Minnesota’s bench is deep in right-handed bats as it is and signing Gurriel would likely mean optioning Trevor Larnach (another former first-rounder and top prospect who’s been beset by injuries) to Triple-A.

Clear fits for Gurriel aren’t exactly plentiful at the moment, though there are some teams that could potentially work him into a part-time first base/DH role (e.g. Rangers, Reds, to name a couple). It’s certainly possible that some spring injuries will open the door for a new opportunity once camps begin to get underway, however. At this point, that might be what it takes for Gurriel to find a semi-regular role.

The Free Agent Market Still Has A Handful Of Interesting Platoon Bats

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Free agency is slim pickings at this point, with very few potential everyday players still available. There are only 13 hitters who appeared in 100+ games last season who remain unsigned. Only ten of those names topped 400 plate appearances, and only three topped 500. Jurickson Profar and Elvis Andrus are the closest thing to surefire everyday players. Yuli Gurriel has been that throughout his MLB career but is headed into his age-39 season and coming off a poor 2022 showing. Given the quiet market, it seems unlikely he’ll be signed as anyone’s primary first baseman at this point.

That trio still has value to big league clubs, of course, and the free-agent market in general still has a handful of names who can be valuable part-time/bench pieces if deployed properly. Some of the following names have long been platooned in the big leagues, while others are perhaps aging their way into that more specialized type of role. Regardless, there are still some remaining names with a track record of doing damage in the proper platoon context. Let’s take a look at who’s left on the market that could still provide some offensive value in the right setting…

Versus Left-Handed Pitching

Robbie Grossman, OF

Grossman was an above-average bat in five of six seasons from 2016-21, with 2019 being the lone exception. He slipped to a .209/.310/.311 output in 477 plate appearances this past season between the Tigers and Braves, but he maintained his long track record of production against left-handed pitching.

The 2019 season — when Grossman didn’t produce much against anyone — is Grossman’s only full season since 2016 in which he wasn’t an unmitigated thorn in the side of lefties. He mashed southpaws at a .320/.436/.443 pace in 2022 and is a career .279/.377/.413 hitter against lefties. The switch-hitting Grossman has had productive stretches against righties, too, though he’s been inconsistent in that regard. He’s strictly a corner outfield/designated hitter option at this point, but he can clearly still do damage against southpaws.

Donovan Solano, INF:

Solano bounced around the infield as a utility option with the Marlins from 2012-15 and, after a brief nine-game look with the Yankees in 2016, fell off the MLB radar entirely until a 2019 resurgence in San Francisco. Solano came out of nowhere to hit .330/.360/.456 that year, and while much of that is attributable to a .409 BABIP he was never going to sustain, he’s remained an above-average hitter for three seasons now.

Much of that production has been a matter of Solano holding his own against righties while absolutely clobbering left-handed opponents. He’s posted a solid, albeit rather punchless .289/.342/.397 slash against righties since resurfacing with the Giants, but Solano has tattooed lefties at a .321/.363/.461 clip. It’s partially driven by a still-hefty .365 average on balls in play, but Solano strikes out noticeably less often and hits the ball considerably harder against lefties than he does righties. Solano has been primarily a second baseman/third baseman since returning, though he posted strong defensive marks in 215 innings at first base with the Reds last year. For the right team, he could be considered for everyday work, but he’d be an upgrade to quite a few benches around the league.

Yuli Gurriel, 1B:

Gurriel won a batting title and a Gold Glove in 2021, but the bottom dropped out on his 2022 season. He slashed just .242/.288/.360 this past season, generally mirroring his output from an ugly 2020 campaign.

Even with those dismal all-around numbers, though, Gurriel slashed a more palatable .265/.298/.441 against left-handed pitching — good for a 108 wRC+. Gurriel is a career .282/.333/.474 hitter against left-handed pitching, and as recently as 2021 he obliterated southpaws at a .326/.394/.530 pace (150 wRC+). Defensive metrics soured on Gurriel in 2022 as well, and there’s some obvious concern when a player in his late 30s declines this sharply. Still, he rarely strikes out (12.5% in ’22, 11.2% career) and has enough of a track record against lefties to think he can help a team in a part-time role. He’s been linked to the Twins, Astros and Marlins in recent weeks, though Miami has reportedly backed off on its efforts to sign him.

Versus Right-Handed Pitching

Tyler Naquin, OF

The 31-year-old Naquin split the 2022 season between the Reds and Mets, though both his role and his production declined following a trade from Cincinnati to Queens (even when weighting for the difference in park factors). The extent of the correlation (if any) between those two things can’t be accurately measured, but even with the dip in production post-trade, Naquin finished out the year with a solid .241/.300/.446 slash against righties.

Naquin is just a year removed from batting .283/.339/.514 against right-handed pitching, and he’s a career .274/.326/.468 hitter when holding the platoon advantage. Defensively, he’s best-suited for corner outfield work, although he logged 645 innings in center as recently as 2021. A team looking for an affordable lefty to plug into the outfield corners could do far worse than deploying Naquin as part of a platoon.

David Peralta, OF

Peralta logged the third-most plate appearances against righties of any remaining free agent last season (417) and was the most productive bat left on the market, by measure of wRC+ (116). He slashed .267/.329/.449 with 11 homers, 29 doubles and three triples in such situations, and he’s a career .294/.350/.486 hitter in such situations.

Peralta turned 35 in August, and his defensive grades — once universally above average — were more of a mixed bag in 2022. Defensive Runs Saved pegged him at minus-5, whereas Statcast’s Outs Above Average credited him with a plus-5 mark. The longtime Diamondback also saw his numbers crater following a trade to the Rays (.255/.317/.335, no homers in 180 plate appearances), which surely hasn’t helped his cause. Still, there’s little reason to think that stretch of 47 games firmly indicates that he can’t rebound, and the price to find out figures to be pretty light at this point.

Ben Gamel, OF

The 423 plate appearances Gamel logged in 2022 were the second-highest total of his career and his most since recording 550 trips to the plate with the 2017 Mariners. Gamel’s overall track record against right-handed pitching is that of a league-average hitter, although it’s skewed a bit by a pair of shaky seasons that are a few years in the rearview mirror.

In each of the past two seasons, Gamel’s 112 wRC+ against righties has indicated that he’s about 12% better than league-average when holding the platoon advantage. He’s batted .255/.351/.408 through 605 plate appearances in that time, walking at a huge 13.9% clip against a less-encouraging 24.3% strikeout rate. Gamel was a generally solid outfielder defender from 2018-20, but defensive metrics have soured on him as Statcast has increasingly panned his outfield jumps in recent years. He’s also seen his sprint speed decline (though it’s still in the 65th percentile) and his once-above-average arm strength dip to roughly league-average. Gamel was basically a replacement-level player in 2022, but if his defense bounces back at all, he can be a useful role player off the bench.

—

There are certainly more names out there to consider. Catcher Gary Sanchez, for instance, has a solid career batting line against lefties but was well below-average against them in 2022 and actually hasn’t consistently hit southpaws over the past four years now. Edwin Rios has an above-average career line against lefties but in a relatively small sample, and his strikeout rates likely give teams some pause.

The aforementioned Andrus, conversely, was great against lefties in 2022 and has a decent track record against them, but he’ll probably be signed more for his glove and still seems like someone who could land a more regular role. Ditto, to a lesser extent, with regard to Jose Iglesias.

Profar hit both lefties and righties well in 2022 and remains without a team, perhaps due to a lofty asking price early on. Wherever he signs, it seems likely he’ll be in line for more regular work in the outfield, even if it’s at a lower rate than he anticipated earlier in the winter.

Other names might be conspicuous by their absence. Right-handed sluggers Luke Voit and Miguel Sano, however, both have better career numbers against righties than lefties — marginally so in the case of Sano but by a pretty wide gap with regard to Voit. Sano hasn’t had a productive season against lefties since 2019, while Voit saw each of his average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage check in shy of .300 against lefties in 2022.

Latest On Yuli Gurriel’s Free Agency

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Yuli Gurriel is one of the more accomplished free agent hitters still available, though he’s seeking a bounceback opportunity after a rough 2022 campaign. It seemed things were moving towards a resolution a couple weeks ago when reports suggested his camp was making progress in talks with the Marlins. However, Miami eventually pulled back that pursuit.

That has left the 38-year-old without a publicly defined market. The only other teams tied to Gurriel this offseason are the Twins and the incumbent Astros, with whom the Cuban infielder spent his first seven big league seasons. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote yesterday Gurriel had sought a guarantee in the $3MM range at one point this offseason. Whether that’s still his goal is unclear, though the Post reports he declined multiple contract offers that were apparently below his asking price.

Heyman adds Houston manager Dusty Baker would like for Gurriel to return, though it’s not clear if there’s a fit on the roster given the team’s early-offseason pickup of José Abreu. Houston has Yordan Alvarez and Michael Brantley to split time between designated hitter and left field. Any path to playing time on the Astros roster would be as a right-handed bench bat. Houston already has a pair of right-handed infielders — Mauricio Dubón and David Hensley — who could crack the roster while offering more defensive flexibility.

Gurriel has some previous MLB experience at second and third base but has played almost exclusively first base since the start of the 2020 campaign. That’s at least in part because Houston has Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman entrenched at those other infield spots. Gurriel garnered solid marks from public defensive metrics for his intermittent third base work between 2016-19 and was a Gold Glove winning first baseman as recently as 2021. His defensive marks at first base cratered last season, though, which could give teams pause about his ability to handle any more demanding positions as he enters his age-39 season.

His offense is something of a question mark as well. Gurriel is coming off a .242/.288/.360 line with just eight home runs through 584 regular season plate appearances. He finished the year with an excellent 12-game playoff run (.347/.360/.490) before a World Series-ending MCL sprain in his right knee. On the one hand, it was Gurriel’s second well below-average offensive showing in the past three years, as he managed just a .232/.274/.384 showing during the shortened 2020 schedule. Yet his intervening season was brilliant, as he posted a .319/.383/.462 mark in 143 games in 2021, securing an American League batting title.

Gurriel still has excellent bat-to-ball skills. Last year’s 12.5% strikeout rate was a personal high but checked in roughly ten percentage points below the league average. Even with a below-average slash line, he collected 40 doubles for the third time in his career. Still, the 2022 season also represented the first time he failed to reach double-digit homers in a full season, and his on-base percentage was fifth-lowest among 36 first basemen with 400+ plate appearances.

There are a few remaining rebound targets available at the position in free agency. Longtime Twin slugger Miguel Sanó will hold a showcase for scouts next week, while 2020 home run leader Luke Voit is unsigned after being non-tendered by the Nationals. Gurriel brings a far different approach than those high-strikeout sluggers, though Sanó and Voit are far younger.

Marlins Back Off Pursuit Of Yuli Gurriel

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The Marlins have scaled back their efforts to sign baseman Yuli Gurriel, per Craig Mish of the Miami Herald, who reports that they’ve “stopped any aggressive pursuit” of the former Astros infielder. MLB.com had reported over the weekend that the Marlins were “moving toward a deal” with the 38-year-old Gurriel. The addition of another first baseman remains possible, Mish adds, but Gurriel doesn’t appear likely to land with the Fish at this point.

It’s something of an about-face for a Marlins team that looked to be gearing up for the addition of a second premium contact hitter just days after acquiring Luis Arraez from the Twins. Gurriel has fanned in just 11.2% of his 3305 Major League plate appearances since signing with the Astros in 2016; this past season’s 12.5% strikeout rate was a career-high for Gurriel, but it was also still more than ten percentage points better than the league average.

The Marlins reportedly had interest in using Gurriel at multiple positions, bouncing him between first base, second base and third base. That’d be a change for Gurriel, who outside of two innings at the hot corner in 2021, has been exclusively a first baseman for each of the past three seasons. Gurriel generally has a strong defensive track record, though metrics like Defensive Runs Saved (-2) and Outs Above Average (-9) soured on him in 2022 just one year after he won a Gold Glove in 2021.

If Miami is still seeking another option at first base, the free-agent market has largely been picked over but still has a few options. Old friend Jesus Aguilar remains unsigned, as do sluggers Luke Voit and Miguel Sano. Like Gurriel, all three are in search of a rebound campaign from lackluster performances and/or injury. Miami currently projects for a $103MM payroll, per Roster Resource, which would be only the third time topping $100MM in franchise history. It’s not clear just how much Miami has left to spend, though their weekend link to Gurriel clearly suggests there’s at least a bit of payroll capacity left.

It’s been a generally quiet winter with regard to Gurriel, although Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base reported over the weekend that the Twins were also in the mix to acquire his services. It’s not clear at this time if the dwindling talks with Miami are reflective of progress on the Twins’ behalf.

Minnesota added another right-handed bat last night when acquiring Michael A. Taylor from the Royals, though Gurriel would give them another contact-oriented infield bat to help offset Arraez’s departure. Former top prospect Alex Kirilloff seems likely to handle first base for the Twins in 2023 — assuming he’s recovered from a pair of wrist surgeries (one in 2021 and another in 2022). Gurriel would give them an experienced righty bat to pair with the lefty-hitting Kirilloff, and he could mix in at designated hitter as well, where Minnesota currently looks like they’ll cycle through a number of options.

Marlins “Moving Toward” Deal With Yuli Gurriel, Twins Also Involved

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The Marlins are “moving toward” a deal with free agent Yuli Gurriel, according to Mark Feinsand and Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. No deal has been finalized yet, and Miami isn’t the only club involved, as Daniel Alvarez-Montes of El Extra Base reports that the Twins are also in on Gurriel.

The Marlins had been the only previously reported team interested in the former Astro, so it’s no surprise that they’re front and center as Gurriel’s market heats up a bit. Miami and Minnesota just joined forces on a trade this week that sent Luis Arraez to South Beach, the Marlins are planning to deploy Arraez at second base (moving Jazz Chisholm Jr. to center fielder), thus leaving some room for Gurriel to help out at first base. Of course, Garrett Cooper is Miami’s incumbent first baseman, and both he and Gurriel are right-handed hitters, making for a less-than-ideal platoon fit. Jorge Soler is another right-handed bat who looks to be the first choice at DH, leaving fewer at-bats for manager Skip Schumaker to potentially find for Gurriel.

In terms of pure playing-time fit, the Twins might be a better option for Gurriel, as the left-handed hitting Alex Kirilloff looks to be moving into first base duty and Minnesota doesn’t have a set designated hitter. Of course, any number of factors could be impacting Gurriel’s ongoing decision process about choosing his next team, including the fact that Gurriel has a home in Miami.

Gurriel hit free agency this winter after seven seasons in Houston. The 38-year-old had some very strong seasons with the Astros, but his production dipped off significantly in 2022. Last year, he hit just .242/.288/.360 with eight home runs over 584 plate appearances. That was good for a wRC+ of just 85, about 15 percent below average and well down from the 132 mark he put up just a year prior. There also wasn’t much to like about Gurriel’s Statcast numbers, apart from the fact that he remains one of baseball’s tougher hitters to strike out.

At Gurriel’s age, a sudden dropoff in productivity isn’t unexpected, yet his 2021 success is still so fresh that the Marlins, Twins, or perhaps other teams might think a rebound is still possible. In regards to the Fish, Gurriel’s ability to avoid strikeouts is a valued skill for a club that went into the winter looking to add contact hitting, with the Arraez trade standing out as how the Marlins are trying to achieve that goal.

Astros Notes: Catching, Brantley, Gurriel

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The defending champion Astros could be set to go with internal options alongside veteran Martin Maldonado behind the plate. As a report from Brian McTaggart of MLB.com suggests, the Astros had looked into the possibility of bringing in an external backstop to replace the retired Jason Castro and departed Christian Vazquez, but now may just let one of their young catchers backup Maldonado.

With the popular Maldonado the team’s top backstop, prospects Korey Lee and Yainer Diaz could battle it out in the spring for the big league backup job. Lee was the team’s first round pick back in 2019 and made it onto Baseball America’s Top 100 list before last season. He got some time in the big leagues last year, going 4-for-25 in 12 games. Lee mashed 25 homers on the way to a .238/.307/.483 line at Triple-A, where he spent the bulk of the 2022 season.

Diaz, 24, is known for his big bat and slashed .306/.356/.542 with 25 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A last season, his first with the Astros after coming over in the Myles Straw deal with Cleveland. Diaz, too, got a callup to the big leagues last season, picking up a double and a walk in nine plate appearances. While both Lee and Diaz have upside, McTaggart speculates that Diaz’ bat could give him the edge over Lee initially, as the team could play him at DH and first-base as well.

Here’s some other bits and pieces from the Astros:

  • Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle relays that the expectation is that Michael Brantley will be ready for Opening Day. The Astros re-signed Brantley to a one-year, $12MM deal just before Christmas. The 35-year-old was a productive hitter for the Astros last year, slashing .288/.370/.416 before going on the injured list in late June with a shoulder injury that eventually required surgery. Brantley is no stranger to injury problems, but has been a highly effective hitter when fit, as evidenced by his .306/.365/.462 line since 2017. The Astros will hope he can return fully fit in 2023 and provide more valuable offense as they look to defend their title.
  • Astros great and front office member Jeff Bagwell offered some insight into whether or not the team has any interest in bringing back Yuli Gurriel. The 38-year-old is a free agent after playing seven seasons with the Astros. He had some strong seasons in Houston, but his production dipped last year and he wound up hitting just .242/.288/.360 with eight home runs over 584 plate appearances. The Marlins are the only reported team to have made contact with Gurriel, but it seems the Astros aren’t closing the door on bringing him back. “There’s nobody that loves Yuli more than us, myself, Jim (Crane), Dusty (Baker), everybody. It’s just trying to find the right fit for the club. He’s a huge part of our success here. We’ll continue to monitor that situation,” Bagwell said (via McTaggart).

Marlins Have Been In Contact With Yuli Gurriel

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The Marlins have been in contact with free agent first baseman Yuli Gurriel, according to Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald and Alejandro Villegas of 5 Reasons Sports.

Gurriel, 39 in June, has spent his entire MLB career with the Astros thus far. He signed with them out of Cuba in 2016, a five-year deal that covered the 2016-2020 period. After a brief showing in the first year of that deal, Gurriel established himself as an above-average regular in the three subsequent seasons. From 2017 through 2019, he walked in just 4.7% of his trips to the plate but he also only struck out 10.9% of the time. He hit 62 home runs and produced an overall batting line of .296/.333/.486. His 119 wRC+ in that time indicates he was 19% better than league average.

The past three years have been far less consistent, however. Gurriel slumped badly in the shortened 2020 season, hitting just .232/.274/.384 for a wRC+ of 76. Nonetheless, the Astros had enough faith in him that they gave him a one-year extension with a club option for 2022. He bounced back in a huge way, winning the American League batting title in 2021 by hitting .319 and producing a 132 wRC+. The club triggered their club option for 2022 but saw Gurriel slump again, hitting .242/.288/.360, 86 wRC+, though he did catch fire in the postseason and hit .347/.360/.490. His market has been quiet so far this offseason, with the only reported interest coming from the Astros, though that was before they signed José Abreu.

The Fish don’t strictly need to add a first baseman since they already have Garrett Cooper lined up for that position. He’s been an above-average hitter in each of the past four seasons but is frequently injured, having yet to reach 120 games in any season of his career. Acquiring Gurriel would give them some extra cover or allow the club to monitor the workloads of the two players. Both players are right-handed but Cooper has reverse splits, meaning some platooning is possible. He has a 119 wRC+ against righties for his career but a 113 against lefties. It was even more pronounced in 2022, with a 79 against southpaws and a 125 otherwise.

There’s also the possibility of the duo taking some time at designated hitter, though that it somewhat complicated by the presence of Jorge Soler. The outfielder missed significant time in 2022 due to back spasms and reports have indicated he’ll likely get the bulk of his playing time in the DH slot next year.

All this makes Gurriel a slightly awkward fit on the roster but his inconsistent track record in recent years and advancing age probably mean he won’t cost much. That surely makes him appealing to a fairly low-spending Marlins club. The payroll is currently around $103MM, per the calculations of Roster Resource. That’s fairly modest by MLB standards but the club has only once gone higher than that, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, which was back in 2017 under the previous ownership group. Last year, they opened the season with just $79MM on the books.

Whatever the cost, adding Gurriel would be another attempt for the club to add some more offense to its tepid lineup, which produced a wRC+ of 88 last year, placing them 25th out of the 30 teams in the league. They’ve already signed Jean Segura as part of that effort and have also been trying to trade from their rotation surplus for quite some time, though a deal still hasn’t come together.

Crane: Justin Verlander Seeking Deal Similar To Max Scherzer’s

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Justin Verlander is a free agent without much precedent. A favorite to claim his third career Cy Young award this evening, he’s back on the open market after bypassing a $25MM player option with the Astros.

Verlander’s a fascinating case for teams. He turns 40 years old in February, which’ll certainly cap the length of his next deal. Yet he’s still among the top handful of pitchers in the sport, which sets him up for one of the largest per-year salaries in MLB history. Astros owner Jim Crane — who has taken a very hands-on role in the Houston front office and played a key role in bringing Verlander back last winter — told Brian McTaggart of MLB.com that Verlander has looked to last winter’s biggest free agent pitching contract as precedent. His former teammate Max Scherzer inked a three-year, $130MM guarantee with the Mets — a deal that also allowed him to opt out after the 2023 season.

“I know him well, so we’ve been pretty candid,” Crane told McTaggart. “He’s looking at the comp, which I think there’s only one or two. … J.V.’s probably got a few years left, and he wants to make the most of it. I think he’s going to test the market on that.”

The Scherzer deal indeed seems the closest comparison to Verlander, although their situations aren’t perfectly analogous. While both are all-time great pitchers still pitching near the top of their games deeper into their careers, a three-year bet on Scherzer was probably easier for a team to stomach than that same term for Verlander. Scherzer signed in advance of his age-37 season, while the latter will be three years older at the start of his next contract. Verlander’s two years removed from a Tommy John procedure that cost him almost all of the 2020-21 campaigns, but he’s bounced back to pitch at pre-surgery levels this year. Scherzer had avoided any injury of that magnitude in the past decade, topping 170 innings in every full season since 2008 before this year.

While that seems to tip things in Scherzer’s favor, their pure performance track records are mostly without complaint. Verlander had a 1.75 ERA across 175 innings this past season; Scherzer posted a 2.46 mark in 2021. The latter missed more bats, striking out 34.1% of opponents against Verlander’s 27.8% mark. Fanning just under 28% of opponents is still excellent for a starting pitcher, though, and Verlander maintained top-tier control while sitting in the mid-90s with his fastball.

To no one’s surprise, Crane suggested the Astros hope to bring Verlander back. However, there appears to be a notable gap between the two sides on contract terms right now. While Crane didn’t specify the lengths the Astros are willing to go to retain the nine-time All-Star, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports Crane has thus far been reluctant to go past a two-year guarantee in the $60MM – $70MM range. That’s certainly not to say the Houston owner couldn’t later raise the offer, but Rome characterizes that as a rough line the team has set at present and suggests the Astros are very unlikely to offer a third guaranteed year.

Whether another team would be willing to go three years is one of the most interesting storylines of the offseason, and MLBTR forecasts Verlander for a three-year, $120MM guarantee. In any event, it doesn’t seem as if the Astros and Verlander are going to come to any agreement within the first few days of the offseason. The right-hander has spoken a number of times about his respect for Crane and affinity for the organization generally, but the owner’s comments don’t suggest the future Hall of Famer is looking to take a notable discount to stick around for a fifth full season with the defending World Series champs.

One could argue the Astros are better off letting Verlander walk and reallocating their spending capacity. They’re sure to face competition from a number of big-market, win-now teams. Clubs like the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets and Phillies figure to check in; Andy Martino of SNY wrote yesterday the Mets have discussed internally the possibility of a Verlander pursuit, presumably as an alternative if Jacob deGrom departs in free agency.

Houston is one of the sport’s biggest spenders themselves, and they don’t figure to be facing acute budgetary limitations coming off a championship. Yet Rome points out the Astros under Crane have tended to shy away from long-term free agent commitments. They also have questions at first base, at one of left field or designated hitter (depending on the team’s plans for Yordan Alvarez) and, to a lesser extent, in the bullpen.

Roster Resource projects their 2023 commitments just under $164MM with a luxury tax number around $179MM. Topping this year’s approximate $174MM Opening Day payroll feels like a given, and they’re around $54MM away from the $233MM base luxury tax threshold. Houston could certainly make a Verlander deal work, but an annual salary approaching or topping the $43.333MM Scherzer secured would push them fairly close to CBT territory without addressing anywhere else on the roster. Even if Verlander departs, a rotation of Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia, José Urquidy and top prospect Hunter Brown (plus any external additions) would be among the best in the sport.

As far those other needs go, Crane tells McTaggart he’s interested in bringing back Yuli Gurriel at first base. He was less committal on Michael Brantley, whom Crane said could need to wait until March until there’s clarity on his recovery from this summer’s right shoulder surgery. Crane also pointed to a desire to add a left-handed bullpen arm, an obvious question after the team bought out Will Smith at the start of the offseason. He didn’t speak on free agent catcher/DH Willson Contreras, to whom the club has previously been linked, but Rome reports that Houston indeed has “strong interest” in the former Cubs backstop.

Astros Prioritizing Anthony Rizzo In First Base Search

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The defending World Series champions head into the offseason without many holes on the roster, but first base is a notable exception. The Astros got just a .235/.285/.371 showing from the bat-first position this past season, and they’ve seen both Yuli Gurriel and Trey Mancini hit the open market.

With J.J. Matijevic and Yainer Díaz standing as the primary in-house options at the start of the offseason, the Astros are virtually certain to add first base help in some capacity. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports Houston has set its sights on Anthony Rizzo as its top free agent target at the position. Rosenthal writes they’ve also expressed some interest in José Abreu and Gurriel as potential fallbacks.

Rizzo is back on the free agent market for the second straight offseason, although he’s facing a key decision in the first few days this time around. The Yankees tagged the left-handed hitter with a qualifying offer last week, just days after Rizzo declined a $16MM player option. Rizzo and his representatives at Sports One Athlete Management have until tomorrow at 4:00 pm EST to decide whether to accept that $19.65MM offer from New York or to turn it down — presumably in search of a multi-year pact.

Of course, the Yankees are among the most direct competitors to the Astros atop the American League. Houston and New York were top two in the Junior Circuit in regular season record and met in the AL Championship Series this year. The Astros handily controlled the Yankees in the postseason, but Rosenthal suggests the opportunity to poach a key bat from New York would be an added bonus for Houston as they try to remain atop the perch.

Doing so would require forfeiting a draft choice, as Rizzo would have to reject the Yankees’ QO to sign with Houston. The Astros neither paid the luxury tax nor received revenue sharing payments this year, so they’d be stripped of their second-highest pick in the 2023 draft and $500K in international signing bonus space to sign a qualified free agent. The Yankees would receive a compensatory pick if Rizzo signed elsewhere, but that selection would only come after the fourth round since New York did surpass the CBT threshold this year.

It seems far likelier the Yankees would prefer to see Rizzo stick around for another season than to collect that modest compensation, although it remains to be seen whether the first baseman’s camp will feel he could top the terms of the qualifying offer. Rizzo signed a two-year, $32MM guarantee (with the aforementioned opt-out capability) last winter coming off a .248/.344/.440 showing. He had a more impressive .224/.338/.480 line this year, matching a career-high with 32 home runs. It’d be understandable if Rizzo were looking to beat last winter’s deal building off a better platform season, but he’s now 33 years old and would require teams forfeiting a draft choice to sign him this time around — or, in the Yankees’ case, relinquishing the chance at a compensatory pick were they to bring him back.

Aside from Rizzo, the top free agent first basemen available are Abreu and Josh Bell. Neither player was eligible for a qualifying offer this winter, but each could prove more costly than Rizzo. Even after a down second half, Bell looks likely to land a three or four-year deal heading into his age-30 season off a .266/.362/.422 showing between the Nationals and Padres. Abreu is soon to be 36 and will be limited to shorter-term offers, but he hit .304/.378/.446 with the White Sox and could land the largest per-year salary of anyone in the first base class.

Gurriel and Mancini are among the lower-tier options, with the former having been a career-long member of the organization. Gurriel was the AL batting champion as recently as 2021, but he mustered only a .242/.288/.360 regular season showing this year before an excellent 12-game run in the playoffs. Mancini looks less likely to be back after struggling with the Astros following a deadline trade from the Orioles. Houston could also look to the trade market if they come up empty in free agency. They reportedly were in contact with the Rays about Ji-Man Choi before he was dealt to Pittsburgh, while Rhys Hoskins, Rowdy Tellez and Joey Meneses are among speculative trade candidates.

Hanging over all the Astros’ early offseason interest is a lack of front office clarity. After the team parted ways with general manager James Click last week, the team is without a presently stable baseball operations hierarchy. Owner Jim Crane is known to have taken an active role in the team’s decision-making, while Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reported over the weekend that assistant GM Andrew Ball and senior director of baseball strategy Bill Firkus were handling day-to-day operations.

The Opener: Diaz, Injuries, Rule 5

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With the World Series in the rear-view and the offseason officially underway, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:

1. Edwin Diaz Sets Records With New Mets Pact

The first major signing of the offseason occurred yesterday evening, with the Mets re-signing star closer Edwin Diaz to a massive five-year, $102MM contract. Diaz now becomes the first relief pitcher to ever secure a nine-figure deal, and the first with a deal of an average annual value north of $20MM. Diaz secured that contract by having a platform season for the ages, throwing 62 innings to a 1.31 ERA and a mind-boggling 0.90 FIP. While the Mets have plenty more to do in rebuilding the bullpen as Trevor May, Seth Lugo, and Mychal Givens depart for free agency, the Diaz re-signing serves as an important first step in that process. The record-setting contract also serves as a reminder of owner Steve Cohen’s willingness to flex financial muscle, which will be important as the Mets look to re-sign or replace players such as Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, and Brandon Nimmo this offseason.

2. World Series Teams Examine Injuries

Though the 2022 World Series is now a thing of the past, the participants must now turn their focus to the injuries they suffered throughout the season that had been ignored in favor of playing through the postseason run. Most notable among these, of course, is Bryce Harper, who suffered UCL damage in May, with surgery this offseason a possibility. For the World Series champion Astros, three players have injuries to worry about entering the offseason: Alex Bregman suffered a broken finger late in Game 6 on Saturday, Yuli Gurriel missed Game 6 after a sprain to his MCL, and Martin Maldonado played through both a broken hand and a sports hernia this postseason, the latter of which will require surgery according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Bregman’s injury has the least question marks surrounding it, as he will reportedly be ready for Spring Training in 2023. More details could be announced regarding the rest of these injuries in the coming days.

3. Rule 5 Draft Protection Deadline Looms

As Mark Polishuk noted in his offseason preview, the deadline to add players to the 40-man roster in order to protect them from the Rule 5 draft is November 15th this year. Seeing as there was no R5 draft last offseason, teams will likely have more players to protect than usual, which could lead to roster crunches across baseball. This could also lead to some players getting cut from 40-man rosters a few days ahead of November 18th’s non-tender deadline, and some minor trades such as yesterday’s Sam Hilliard deal between the Rockies and Braves. Overall, with these dates being earlier on the offseason calendar, fans should expect a larger quantity of winter moves to happen in this first week of the offseason than in recent years, though said moves won’t necessarily be at the top of the free agent market.

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