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Zack Wheeler

Zack Wheeler Discusses Pending Free Agency

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In what could be his final week in a Mets uniform, pending free-agent right-hander Zack Wheeler spoke about his future with Mollie Walker of the New York Post, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com and other reporters Wednesday. Unsurprisingly, the 29-year-old Wheeler doesn’t sound like someone who’s ready to commit to his current team with what could be a lucrative trip to the open market looming.

“I think you have to weigh your options when it gets to this point,” said Wheeler, who’s just over a month from becoming a free agent. “I love it here and I definitely would listen to these guys. But I think you have to weigh all your options and see what’s best for me personally at that point.”

Wheeler was both a trade and an extension candidate as recently as July, but the Mets neither dealt him nor locked him up. And there haven’t been any rumors regarding a new contract between the sides since then, so it appears increasingly likely Wheeler will test the market.

Considering the wide interest he drew prior to the trade deadline, the Mets probably could have gotten something for Wheeler back in July (though he was coming off shoulder issues at the time). However, even if he walks in free agency, they’ll still have a chance to land draft compensation for Wheeler – who looks like a surefire candidate to receive the qualifying offer. Wheeler would then have the option of accepting the one-year offer (which should be worth in the $18MM-$19MM neighborhood) and sticking with the Mets. As you’d expect, though, Wheeler prefers more security than the QO presents.

On the prospect of signing a multiyear pact, Wheeler stated: “Hopefully, yeah. Time will tell.”

Although Wheeler’s a former Tommy John patient who sat out for almost all of 2015-17 with arm injuries, he has spent the past two seasons making a strong case for a considerable multiyear payday. After firing 182 1/3 innings of 3.31 ERA/3.25 FIP ball in 2018, Wheeler has notched 187 1/3 frames of 3.99 ERA/3.47 FIP pitching this year. During that two-year span, Wheeler has struck out just under a hitter per inning while walking fewer than three per nine. Moreover, Wheeler boasts elite fastball velocity – the pitch clocks in at just under 97 mph – which should only make it easier for him to cash in during the coming months.

In the event Wheeler pitches for a different team in 2020, the top of the Mets’ rotation could still be in enviable shape. Ace Jacob deGrom might be a back-to-back NL Cy Young winner by then, while Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman make for fine complements. Then again, with all the trade rumors that have surrounded Syndergaard since last winter, perhaps he – like Wheeler – isn’t a lock to don a Mets uni next year.

Mets, Zack Wheeler “Failed To Progress” In Extension Talks

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The Mets were seemingly exploring all options as both buyers and sellers leading up to the trade deadline, including the possibility of signing Zack Wheeler to an extension and (presumably then) trading Noah Syndergaard.  The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal had the original report about the Mets’ interest in extending Wheeler, and in a longer piece (subscription required), Rosenthal notes that Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen actually did broach a long-term deal with Wheeler’s agent.  However, “the conversations failed to progress,” and Wheeler is still on track to reach free agency after the season.

It isn’t any surprise that the two sides didn’t link up, if for no other reason than it’s rare to see a pending free agent sign a midseason extension.  Usually, such deals are completed before Opening Day (or perhaps shortly into April) in the player’s final season under contract.  With over two-thirds of the season in the books, however, it likely would’ve taken a real sweetheart of an offer from the Mets to convince Wheeler to forego his shot at the open market, particularly since he stands to land a rich deal.  MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently slotted Wheeler fourth in his latest power ranking of the 2019-20 free agent class.

If anything, Wheeler’s stock has only risen since the trade deadline.  The right-hander has tossed 15 shutout innings over his last two starts, continuing his career-long trend of pitching better in the second half of the season.  For all of 2019, Wheeler has a 4.20 ERA, 9.62 K/9, 46.3% grounder rate, 4.26 K/BB rate, and .297 xwOBA over 139 1/3 innings, with ERA indicators (3.44 FIP, 3.74 xFIP, 3.93 SIERA) hinting that he is outperforming his actual ERA.

Even before his two post-deadline starts boosted his numbers, Wheeler was still generating a lot of trade interest, though no team was prepared to meet the Mets’ “high, high expectations” (as one team official told Rosenthal) placed on any trade offer for Wheeler, Syndergaard, or any other player who might have been available.  The asking price was high enough even to deter teams who might have been willing to overpay for Wheeler — one rival executive tells Rosenthal that his club was prepared to make a “stupid” offer to add him to their rotation before the deadline.

As Rosenthal notes, this “stupid” offer (and possibly other offers from other teams) would likely have given the Mets more in return for Wheeler than the compensatory draft pick they’d be in line to receive if Wheeler signed elsewhere this winter after rejecting a qualifying offer.  Like so many other free agents in recent years, Wheeler’s market could be somewhat impacted by a qualifying offer (a one-year deal in the range of $18MM+), though the odds are good right now that he’d reject the QO in search of a longer-term contract.

The Mets ended up being buyers rather than sellers at the deadline, adding Marcus Stroman from the Blue Jays and holding onto the rest of their starting staff.  At the moment, it’s hard to argue with results, as New York was already on a hot streak going into the deadline that has now extended to a run of 13 wins over their last 14 games.  If the Mets did plan to make a playoff push, however, Rosenthal wonders why Stroman ended up being the only move, as the club didn’t address other needs (i.e. relief pitching, center field), and also traded another starter in Jason Vargas to the Phillies, another team in wild card contention.  It’s possible the Mets could be active on the August waiver wire, though Rosenthal also wonders if the $206MM luxury tax threshold could have been a consideration — Roster Resource has the Mets’ luxury tax number at just under $203.22MM.

Mozeliak On Cards’ Quiet Deadline

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Even as their NL Central rivals landed improvements in the midst of a tight race, the Cardinals came away empty at yesterday’s trade deadline. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch broke down the fruitless negotiating effort and the ensuing comments of Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak.

The Cards “explored starting pitching first and foremost,” said Mozeliak, with an eye to improving an underwhelming rotation. Presumably, they continued to engage on lefty relievers. There’s no indication whether the team contemplated position-player improvements, though there was certainly an argument to be made for some exploration on that front. The Cards are loaded with options, but the production at second and third base has been sporadic and center field has been a bit of a black hole this season.

While the St. Louis front office is no doubt keenly interested in breaking a four-year string of seasons that ended without postseason appearances, it wasn’t willing to bet the farm on 2019. Per Goold, the club wasn’t willing to give up outfielders Tyler O’Neill or Harrison Bader to rent Zack Wheeler down the stretch, as the Mets demanded. Neither were the Cards amenable to parting with top prospects Dylan Carlson and/or Nolan Gorman in order to pry loose a quality hurler with 2020 contract control, such as Robbie Ray or Mike Minor.

Given those stances, perhaps it’s less than surprising that nothing got done. Gorman and Carlson were obvious targets for other teams to pursue when the Cards came calling on good starters. The club’s other best prospect, catcher Andrew Knizner, is on the MLB roster at present and likely was also off limits. While we had seen indication that the Cardinals were dangling some young outfielders, including O’Neill and the just-promoted Lane Thomas, it seems that those pieces were not available under all circumstances.

Ultimately, the Cardinals did swing two deals with the Dodgers, adding recently designated reliever Zac Rosscup and sending out unwanted infielder Jedd Gyorko. They also claimed southpaw Adalberto Mejia in advance of the deadline. It’s tough to say that any of those acquisitions moved the needle, especially in comparison to the acquisitions of the rival Cubs (Craig Kimbrel, Nicholas Castellanos, David Phelps, Tony Kemp), Brewers (Drew Pomeranz, Ray Black, Jake Faria, Jordan Lyles), and even Reds (Trevor Bauer).

There certainly seemed to be room to improve. There’s an argument to be made that the Cards ought to have been more willing, in particular, to part with some of its young outfielders to make something happen. Then again, the winter St. Louis blockbuster has served to highlight some of the pitfalls in such moves. There will be a need for some of those players next season as well, with others perhaps still representing future trade fodder. And it’s hard to second-guess a team’s internal valuations on players it knows better than anyone might hope to from the outside.

As Mozeliak summed things up: “When you spend seven straight days in a room working on something, you tend to want to see something come out of it. So, there’s a high level of frustration, even for us. But we answer to people and have to be responsible for decisions that come out of it and we just didn’t feel we could get there.”

Wheeler, Vazquez, Bumgarner, Minor All Held At Deadline

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Though deals can and will still trickle in after the formal end of the MLB summer trade period, there are specific reports indicating that several top trade candidates will not be changing hands.

Rays Pursuing Zack Wheeler

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Having lost Blake Snell to the injured list last week, the Rays are in pursuit of Mets right-hander Zack Wheeler, Andy Martino of SNY reports.

This isn’t the first time the Rays have been connected to Wheeler, though Snell wasn’t on the IL when Wheeler was initially said to be on the club’s radar. Snell underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery last week, which should shelve him for close to a month. His absence leaves a Rays team already low on traditional starters with Charlie Morton, Yonny Chirinos and the soon-to-be recalled Brendan McKay as its top options.

Despite their lack of conventional starters, the Rays are in possession of a 61-48 record and just a half-game behind a wild-card spot. Acquiring Wheeler may give the Rays the over-the-top push they’re seeking, though the Mets aren’t a sure thing to trade the 29-year-old soon-to-be free agent. They’ve climbed to within five games of a playoff spot thanks to a recent hot streak, and keeping Wheeler along with Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman and Steven Matz would give them one of the best rotations in baseball on paper. Wheeler has provided New York 124 innings of 4.71 ERA/3.65 FIP pitching with 9.92 K/9 and 2.46 BB/9 this year.

Yankees, Astros Pursuing Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler

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The Yankees and Astros, two American League superpowers, continue their pursuit of high-profile starting pitchers. Both teams are in on Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner and Mets righty Zack Wheeler, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. The Astros are also “focused” on Diamondbacks southpaw Robbie Ray, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Ray has been on the Yankees’ radar of late, too.

The Astros and Yankees are among the teams on Bumgarner’s limited no-trade list, but that doesn’t mean the pending free agent would block a deal to either club. Of course, it’s not a sure thing the playoff-contending Giants will even move Bumgarner, a franchise icon, by today’s deadline. They’ve been telling teams that they plan to keep him and closer Will Smith, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports.

This is the second time this week the Astros have been prominently connected to Bumgarner and Wheeler. As is the case with Bumgarner, Wheeler’s a 29-year-old soon-to-be free agent. While Wheeler may be the top trade candidate in baseball, the Mets aren’t guaranteed to part with him. They’ve made something of a charge up the standings of late, and seem prepared to retain Wheeler if they don’t get the type of return they’re seeking for the flamethrower. And whether the Mets would even trade Wheeler to the hated Yankees is also in question.

Closer Market Rumors: Diaz, Vazquez

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The Mets have numerous top trade chips on the market right now, including marquee offseason acquisition Edwin Diaz. The talented young closer remains highly valuable despite his 4.95 ERA, though it’s likewise true that there’s little chance the Mets would be able to recoup what they gave up to get him over the winter. Beyond the fact that Diaz is now just months away from arbitration, the Mets simply paid a hefty fee for Diaz at the outset. In addition to parting with rising prospects Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn, the club took on $64MM in new salary (after netting out the cash and salaries exchanged).

While that’s a particularly painful price in retrospect, the New York organization must now think primarily about what it wants its roster and payroll to look like moving forward. The latest on Diaz and the rest of the closer market:

  • Despite Diaz’s struggles in the earned-run department, there’s “significant” demand for his services, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link). At present, the Dodgers, Rays, Braves, and Padres are teams with active interest. Several of those teams have been linked clearly to Diaz of late.
  • While Rosenthal had also listed the Red Sox, who were connected yesterday to Diaz by ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, it seems that possibility has already fizzed. That match “remains unlikely,” Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports on Twitter. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand adds Raisel Iglesias of the Reds and Shane Greene of the Tigers as other top relievers unlikely to end up in Boston. (Twitter link.) The Braves, on the other hand, do indeed still seem to be in pursuit of Diaz. Per MLB.com’s Mark Bowman, via Twitter, the Mets have continued to examine the Atlanta farm. From the Braves’ side, it seems Diaz is the top target, with starters Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler of ongoing but lesser interest.
  • If there’s a clear alternative to Diaz, it’s ace Pirates reliever Felipe Vazquez. The high-octane lefty has hit another gear in 2019, with 14.1 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9 to go with his shiny 1.87 ERA on the season. We’ve seen him connected recently to the Dodgers, but there’s no indication the sides have momentum. Indeed, Rosenthal adds (in the above-linked column) that the Bucs are putting such a high price on Vazquez that he “essentially is not available.” That may be a bargaining ploy to see if a rival comes forward with a monster offer, but it’s certainly understandable that the Pirates aren’t just putting Vazquez up for auction. Rosenthal cites anonymous front office opinion that the Pittsburgh roster doesn’t have enough to compete in the near-term to justify keeping an asset such as Vazquez. That may well be the case, but it doesn’t mean the club should sell him short — particularly after seeing what the M’s were able to pry from the Mets for Diaz last winter.

Zack Wheeler Rumors: Astros Increasingly Seen As Favorite

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We just knighted Mets righty Zack Wheeler the top trade deadline candidate in baseball. The results haven’t been there in 2019, but he’s got a power arsenal and is earning less than $6MM on the season. With deadline pressure reaching a breaking point, there ought to be a ton of chatter on him over the next day and a half.

We’ll keep tabs on all the latest right here:

  • The Astros are “working hard” to land Wheeler, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link). Despite the Houston organization’s stated intention to consider controllable starters, it seems the club has fixed its sights on Wheeler. Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets that one rival exec “fully expect[s]” the ’Stros to come away with the righty.
  • Other teams obviously will remain involved until a deal is struck. Last night, Martino cited the Braves, Brewers, Yankeees, Rays, and Athletics as teams with varying levels of ongoing involvement in the Wheeler market. (Twitter links.) That picture could certainly change rapidly, though it stands to reason that each of those clubs will at least want to have a good sense of the price tag as talks work towards a conclusion.
  • As they continue to hold discussions on fellow righty Noah Syndergaard, the Mets “still seem much more likely” to ship out Wheeler, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. Frankly, it’s hard to imagine a reasonable scenario where Wheeler isn’t dealt unless the offers are so low that the Mets would rather hang onto him and make him a qualifying offer at season’s end. That’s not a terrible back-up plan, but it makes much more sense to take the bird in hand at the deadline given the evident levels of interest. (As for the concept of a Wheeler extension, that seems far too speculative to drive the team’s deadline strategy.)

Reaction & Analysis To The Marcus Stroman Trade

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It was widely assumed that the Blue Jays were going to trade Marcus Stroman before the deadline, and many rumors suggested that he could eventually wind up in New York.  Exactly where in the Big Apple Stroman landed, however, ended up being the surprise, as it was the Mets (they of the 55-60 record and the six-game deficit in the NL wild card standings) who landed the right-hander, rather than the AL-leading Yankees.  The Mets acquired Stroman from the Jays for Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson, two of the Amazins’ top pitching prospects.

Today’s stunner of a deal has already led to quite a bit of reaction and speculation about what moves could come next.  The highlights…

  • The Mets have “hijacked the [pitching] market” with the trade, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan tweets.  The Mets’ plan is to keep Stroman, and “the likelihood is strong they deal at least one of” Noah Syndergaard or Zack Wheeler.  Reports from earlier this week suggested that New York could try to sign Wheeler, a pending free agent, to a contract extension, though Passan feels a long-term deal with Wheeler is “increasingly unlikely.”
  • The Padres have been heavily linked to Syndergaard since the offseason, though USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that San Diego is “not optimistic” about landing the righty, since the Mets’ trade demands for Syndergaard are so high.  ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweeted earlier today that Manuel Margot had been discussed as part of the Mets/Padres talks.
  • Seth Lugo is another Mets pitcher “gaining late interest” in trade talks, the New York Daily News’ Deesha Thosar reports (Twitter link).  Lugo has been the Amazins’ best reliever this season, posting a 2.77 ERA, 11.94 K/9, and 5.15 K/BB rate over 52 innings.  Lugo is under control through the 2022 season, so he’d cost a hefty price in a trade, and one wonders if the Mets would even consider moving such a relatively inexpensive long-term asset since they’re planning to contend next year.  (Plus, Lugo becomes even more valuable to the pen if the Mets were to deal Edwin Diaz.)
  • Chris Hemsw….er, that is, Syndergaard himself poked fun at the trade speculation in a tweet of his own.
  • Several of The Athletic’s baseball writers (subscription required) joined forces for a roundtable discussion about the Stroman trade, with Jayson Stark perhaps summing things up with this comment that “Nobody can confuse an entire industry like the Mets.”  Multiple writers pointed out that the Mets’ poor infield defense doesn’t suit Stroman’s grounder-heavy attack.  If Stroman is the first step to flipping Syndergaard, it’s still an odd tactic for a team in win-now mode — as Tim Britton puts it, “New York is replacing [Syndergaard] in 2020 with someone [Stroman] older, with less team control, and whose track record is not quite as good.”  From the Blue Jays’ perspective, Kaitlyn McGrath notes that adding Kay and Woods Richardson meets Toronto’s desire for pitching depth, given the relative lack of young arms in the system.
  • Today’s deal ends Stroman’s often-controversial tenure with the Jays, as the Toronto Star’s Gregor Chisholm chronicles the multiple instances when the “fractured relationship” between Stroman and the Jays become public.  While a trade may have always been inevitable given the Blue Jays’ rebuild, “bad blood on both sides is one reason why a team desperate for pitching opted to trade one of its most talented arms,” Chisholm writes.
  • Stroman (via his Twitter account) did leave with grateful words for fans in Toronto and Canada, while also expressing excitement at returning to play for his hometown team.

A’s Interested In Syndergaard, Wheeler

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At 59-47, the A’s sit right in the thick of a crowded AL Wild Card race. They already signaled their willingness to upgrade the 2019 roster by bolstering their bullpen, but the team is at least considering much bigger targets than Jake Diekman. Per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, the club has made inquiries on Mets’ starters Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler. Slusser notes that the A’s have also reached out to the Tigers to inquire about Shane Greene.

The trade candidacies of all three hurlers have been discussed ad nauseum in recent days. Syndergaard’s is the most fascinating of the trio, as we’ve heard conflicting reports on how determined the New York front office is to move him and head-scratching ideas of a three-team trade that would net the Mets Marcus Stroman, with the Wilpons’ questionable willingness to approve any Thor deal lurking in the background. It’s clear the fireballer would have a broad market if the Mets decide to make him available. While his 4.33 ERA this season is higher than average, his peripherals paint the picture of at least a solid mid-rotation starter. On top of that, Syndergaard comes with two and a half years of team control, a pre-2019 track record of dominance and still-overpowering stuff.

The cases of Wheeler and Greene are more straightforward. Wheeler’s a pending free agent on a non-contending club, so it’s no surprise to see his name being bandied about. While we’ve heard some speculation the Mets could pursue a Wheeler extension in hopes of contending in 2020, he still looks to be one of the more likely trade candidates in baseball. After all, even if the Mets do flip Wheeler, there’s no reason to believe they couldn’t reengage with his representatives on a long-term deal after he hits free agency.

Wheeler would immediately vault to the front of another patchwork A’s rotation, potentially giving them an arm they’d feel comfortable deploying in the AL Wild Card game if they secure a spot. On the other hand, it’s arguable the club should pursue a more moderate starting pitching upgrade, rather than pushing in for perhaps the game’s top rental trade candidate when any hope of winning the division has all but evaporated.

The bullpen doesn’t stand out as a particular area of weakness for Oakland, especially after yesterday’s acquisition of Diekman. A’s relievers rank in the top five in park-adjusted ERA and FIP, making it one of the game’s strongest units. That said, stockpiling bullpen depth could be an alternative to paying a premium for a starter, and it’s worth noting the club bullpened its way through last season’s Wild Card game, which they may be inclined to try again if they get there. (Of course, they lost that game, but one loss doesn’t mean the front office should or will abandon the strategy). Greene’s 1.22 ERA in 2019 is not sustainable, but he’s having a good season no matter which metric you examine and comes with an additional year of team control via arbitration. Nearly every contender figures to check in on the top relievers on the trade market, so it’s unsurprising to hear Oakland continuing to poke around on that market.

Oakland’s top-heavy farm system could make a Wheeler or Greene trade a bit more complicated than would appear at first glance. While any Syndergaard trade would presumably include one of A.J. Puk, Jesus Luzardo, or Sean Murphy, those names would almost certainly be off the table in any trade for a rental or non-elite reliever. To acquire Wheeler or Greene, the A’s would seemingly need to package lower-tier prospects of interest to the Mets or Tigers, respectively, which could make finding a centerpiece of a deal challenging. That’s not to say the A’s couldn’t meet the asking price on either player- they certainly could- but swinging a deal would likely involve multiple low-level pieces not currently among the game’s top 100 prospects.

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