Mariners Sign Robbie Ray
The Mariners announced their agreement with reigning American League Cy Young winner Robbie Ray, as first reported by Michael Mayer of MetsMerized (Twitter link). It’s a five-year deal worth $115MM and an opt-out after the third season, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). Joel Sherman of the New York Post adds that the contract includes a full no-trade clause in the first two seasons and a trade assignment bonus if he’s moved thereafter. Ray is represented by VC Sports Group.
Ray, 30, has long been a premier strikeout arm with command issues, which culminated in a 2020 season that saw him traded from Arizona to Toronto in what amounted to a salary dump. While the lefty didn’t immediately turn things around, the Jays jumped to re-sign him for a year and $8MM right out of the gate in the 2020-21 offseason, clearly believing they could help the lefty find another gear.
Even the Toronto front office’s best-case scenario might not have mirrored the 2021 breakout enjoyed by Ray, who was near-unanimously named AL Cy Young (29 of 30 first-place votes). Ray not only restored his command to prior levels but took it to new heights, walking a career-low 6.7% of his opponents. Ray ramped up the usage of his four-seamer at the expensive of his curveball, largely favoring a two-pitch mix that leaned heavily on his plus slider’s ability to perplex opponents.
The results were obviously outstanding, as Ray compiled an AL-best 2.84 ERA and also paced the American League in innings pitched (193 1/3), total strikeouts (248) and ERA+ (154). Among pitchers with at least 100 innings, Ray’s overall 32.1% strikeout rate trailed only Corbin Burnes, Carlos Rodon, Max Scherzer, Freddy Peralta and Gerrit Cole. His 15.5% swinging-strike rate ranked third among the 129 hurlers who tossed 100-plus frames.
Ray was still prone to the long ball, evidenced by an unsightly 1.54 HR/9 mark, but his ability to keep runners off the basepaths led to nearly 70 percent of those long balls coming with the bases empty. It’s fair to wonder how much concern over that penchant might have impacted his market and kept him from reaching a sixth guaranteed year, but one would also imagine that a move to Seattle and a move out of the generally hitter-friendly AL East will only help to lower that mark.
With Ray departing the Blue Jays, it’s hard to ignore the striking similarity between his contract and the $110MM guaranteed by his former team to another free-agent starter: righty Kevin Gausman. Perhaps the Jays weren’t keen on including an opt-out in the deal, or perhaps they just generally prefer Gausman to Ray when all is said and done. Toronto did pursue Gausman both in the 2019-20 and 2020-21 offseasons, so he’s clearly been of interest to GM Ross Atkins & Co. for quite some time.
In signing Ray, who rejected a qualifying offer in Toronto, the Mariners will surrender their third-highest selection in the 2022 draft. Toronto, meanwhile, will pick up a compensatory pick at the end of the first round by virtue of the fact that Ray signed for more than $50MM in guaranteed money.
With the Mariners, Ray will head up a rotation that also includes lefty Marco Gonzales, righty Chris Flexen and righty Logan Gilbert. Gonzales has long been a steady and durable source of above-average innings, while Flexen proved to be a savvy KBO reclamation project for president of baseball ops Jerry Dipoto and his staff this past offseason. Gilbert, meanwhile, is a former first-round pick and top-end pitching prospect who struggled in the middle of the 2021 season but bookended those struggles with a strong start and strong finish to the season.
Other options in the Seattle rotation currently include Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn, though the Mariners are deep in tantalizing pitching prospects after a protracted rebuilding effort. Top prospects George Kirby, Matt Brash and Emerson Hancock are all progressing through the system, with Brash and Kirby in particular not far from big league readiness. Lefty Brandon Williamson, too, could emerge as an option before long.
Of course, it’s fair to wonder with all that pitching depth and with a good bit of outfield depth, if the Mariners might not choose to trade for another established rotation piece. Ray figures to be the big-ticket free agent addition on the pitching side — not that they couldn’t simply sign another notable arm — but there’s a bevy of quality arms rumored to be available in trade. Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Frankie Montas, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle and Luis Castillo have all had their names kicked about the rumor circuit already, and the Marlins are reportedly open to dealing from their pitching depth as well. Whether it’s a trade or a free agent, another addition to the starting staff to complement the Mariners’ new ace seems likely at some point.
For the time being, it’s possible Seattle will pivot to acquire the bat Dipoto has already suggested he hopes to sign. Dipoto name-checked both Marcus Semien (now with the Rangers) and Javier Baez earlier this winter in voicing a desire to add some “adaptable” free agents, and the Mariners have also been tied to Kris Bryant and Chris Taylor, among others.
From a payroll vantage point, there’s no reason the Mariners shouldn’t be able to add a high-end bat and another rotation addition piece. Even after adding Ray, the Mariners are still projected by Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez to field a payroll of about $88MM (assuming an even distribution of his $23MM annual value). For a Mariners club that has taken payroll north of $150MM in the past, there’s plenty of space to add to pile. Ray currently stands as the largest free-agent addition the Mariners have made under Dipoto, but if he wants to spend more aggressively, the means to do should be present.
After all, the Mariners are staring down a two-decade playoff drought, and now more than ever might be the time for Seattle to push toward ending that dry spell. The Mariners were surprisingly in contention for a Wild Card berth right up until the final weekend of the offseason, and they’ll have even more products of their ballyhooed farm system graduating to the Majors in 2022 — headlined by outfielder Julio Rodriguez. Beyond that, the A’s are on the verge of a tear-down that will see them trade several key players, while the Astros could lose Carlos Correa in free agency. The Rangers are spending aggressively to help put a contender back on the field in the second season of their newly constructed stadium but may be a year or two from truly competing.
In many ways, the time for the Mariners to throttle ahead is now, and the signing of Ray serves as a firm indicator that the front office feels similarly. Armed with an elite farm system and tens of millions of dollars in payroll space, Seattle appears poised for an aggressive winter where Ray is just one of several high-end additions.
Photo courtesy of Imagn/USA Today Sports.
Tender Deadline Signings: 11/30/21
With the deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players looming tonight at 8pm ET — the MLBPA and MLB jointly agreed to move the deadline up a couple days due to the looming expiration of the collective bargaining agreement — we’ll likely see a slew of arbitration-eligible players signing one-year deals.
It’s commonplace for a large batch of players to sign deals in the hours leading up to the tender deadline. “Pre-tender” deals of this nature often fall shy of projections due to the fact that teams use the looming threat of a non-tender to enhance their leverage. Arbitration contracts at this juncture are often take-it-or-leave-it propositions, with the “leave it” end of that arrangement resulting in the player being cut loose. Given the widely expected lockout, there could be more incentive than usual for borderline non-tender candidates to take those offers rather than being cast out into free agency just hours before a transaction freeze is implemented.
As a reminder, arbitration contracts are not fully guaranteed. In a typical year, a team can cut a player on an arb contract at any point before the halfway point in Spring Training and only be responsible for 30 days’ termination pay (about one-sixth of the contract). Releasing a player in the second half of Spring Training bumps the termination pay to 45 days of his prorated salary.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for each team’s arbitration-eligible players last month, although for many of the players listed below, this isn’t so much avoiding arbitration as it is avoiding a non-tender. Here’s a look at today’s agreements…
- The Yankees have agreed to deals with infielder Gio Urshela and right-hander Domingo German, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter links). Urshela will make $6.55MM, while German has agreed to a $1.75MM deal. Urshela has two seasons of control remaining; German is controllable for three years. Urshela is coming off a .267/.301/.419 showing while playing third base and shortstop. German tossed 98 1/3 innings of 4.58 ERA ball.
- The Twins have signed three arbitration-eligible pitchers, per reports from Feinsand and Darren Wolfson of SKOR North (on Twitter). Right-hander Jharel Cotton signed for $700K, reliever Caleb Thielbar lands $1.3MM and reliever Tyler Duffey signs for $3.8MM. Thielbar and Duffey were both productive members of the Minnesota relief corps in 2021. Cotton was recently claimed off waivers from the Rangers.
- The Giants have agreed to terms with outfielder Austin Slater on a $1.85MM deal, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). The 28-year-old (29 next month) appeared at all three spots on the grass while hitting .241/.320/.423 over 306 plate appearances in 2021.
- Reliever Emilio Pagan and the Padres have agreed on a $2.3MM deal, reports Rosenthal (on Twitter). The 30-year-old worked 63 1/3 innings of 4.83 ERA/3.93 SIERA ball this past season.
- The Diamondbacks agreed to a $2MM deal with left-hander Caleb Smith, reports Zach Buchanan of the Athletic (via Twitter). The 30-year-old posted a 4.83 ERA/4.68 SIERA across 113 2/3 innings in a swing capacity in 2021.
Chris Taylor Drawing Widespread Interest
Super utility player Chris Taylor is drawing interest from various teams and could sign in the coming days, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter links). He lists the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Mariners, Angels and Nationals as teams that have been in recent contact with Taylor’s camp. The current CBA expires at 11:59pm ET on Wednesday, December 1, leading to a frenzy of transactions in recent days as teams are trying to tick items of their to-do lists before the lockout and transaction freeze that are expected to follow. Morosi says that Taylor could sign by Wednesday, potentially getting in just under the wire.
The fact that various teams are interested in Taylor’s services is no surprise, given his extreme defensive versatility. Over his career, Taylor has spent time at every position on the diamond except for catcher, pitcher and first base. In 2021, he appeared in at least eight games at six different positions, and more than 23 games at four different spots. He’s also been an above-average contributor on the offensive side of the game for five consecutive seasons now, by measure of wRC+. Over those five years, he has hit 78 home runs, stolen 50 bases and hit .265/.343/.461 for a wRC+ of 116. The combination of those factors makes it hard to imagine a team that wouldn’t be upgraded by adding Taylor to supplant the least-productive non-catcher in their lineup and slotting him into whatever position they happen to play.
Taking all this under consideration, as well as the fact that Taylor rejected a qualifying offer from the Dodgers, MLBTR predicted Taylor could earn himself a contract of four years and $64MM, AAV of $16MM. However, the free agent market has been quite robust so far, with the majority of players outearning their projections as teams seem to be rushing to get business done before this week’s expected lockout and subsequent transaction freeze. With that in mind, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Taylor, 31, surpass that estimate, either in length or dollars.
The Dodgers are a fairly logical suitor, given that they’ve been utilizing Taylor’s skills for the past five-plus seasons. Although they still have one more season of Trea Turner, whom they acquired at the trade deadline, they’ve also just seen Corey Seager sign on with the Texas Rangers. At the moment, Gavin Lux would probably be pencilled in as the second baseman, but he also has positional versatility and could be bumped into a bench/utility role. In the outfield, Mookie Betts and AJ Pollock should have two spots accounted for, with Cody Bellinger likely taking up a third. But after Bellinger’s miserable 2021 campaign, adding Taylor could provide some insurance in case he can’t bounce back to his MVP-winning form from a couple years ago.
Just like the Dodgers, the Blue Jays have also just watched one of their best players depart for Texas, as Marcus Semien is now a Ranger as well. Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have two infield spots spoken for, with Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal and Breyvic Valera on hand as options for second or third base. Taylor could potentially take Semien’s spot and bump everyone else down on the depth chart.
The Mariners have already brought Adam Frazier into their infield mix this week, but seem determined to add more. Morosi lists Taylor, Kris Bryant and Javier Baez as infielders they are considering. Baez has since reportedly signed with the Tigers, but Taylor and Bryant both make sense as potential adds at third base, with Abraham Toro then platooning with Frazier at second. Taylor also started his career in Seattle before moving to the Dodgers, which would make for a nice homecoming story. The club has been aggressive in trying to build on a strong 2021 campaign, having also added Robbie Ray in recent days.
Just like Seattle, their division rivals in Anaheim have also been active in gearing up for 2022. They’ve added pitchers Noah Syndergaard, Michael Lorenzen and Aaron Loup, as well as acquiring infielder Tyler Wade from the Yankees. Taylor would be an upgrade over Wade or David Fletcher for the middle infield, as well as providing insurance for an outfield with a few unproven options, as youngsters Brandon Marsh and Jo Adell have shown promise but haven’t locked down jobs just yet.
The Nationals winning the bidding would be a surprise, given that they underwent a huge fire sale at the trade deadline and have been fairly inactive so far this offseason. But they seem determined to avoid a lengthy rebuild and will be aiming to return to contention while they still have the elite production of Juan Soto, whom they control for three more seasons. Other than Soto and Josh Bell, there’s almost no certainty in the team’s lineup, making it very easy for Taylor to be slotted in.
There’s one team that’s apparently not in the mix, however, as Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that the Red Sox don’t seem to be heavily involved.
AL West Notes: Ray, Gray, Angels, Bryant, Mariners, Athletics
Even after adding Noah Syndergaard, the Angels are still looking to further supplement their pitching staff. In recent days, they’ve been connected in rumors to Steven Matz, before he became a Cardinal, as well as Kevin Gausman, Max Scherzer and Marcus Stroman. But Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that Robbie Ray “remains atop their wish list.”
As Rosenthal notes, the Angels’ budget is a big unanswered question surrounding all of this. He lists their 2022 payroll as around $157MM. Adding someone like Ray would likely add more than $25MM to that total. (MLBTR predicted Ray would get a contract of $130MM over five years, an average annual value of $26MM.) That alone would put the Angels above their 2021 opening day payroll of $182MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, with still other roster issues to address. A budget increase would likely be required in order to facilitate a plan involving a contract of that size.
Another question is whether the Angels will deviate from their longstanding avoidance of committing to free agent starting pitchers. As recently explored by MLBTR’s Steve Adams, the Angels haven’t given a starting pitcher a contract longer than a single year since signing Joe Blanton way back in 2012. Ray, who recently turned 30 and won the AL Cy Young Award, would certainly require the Angels to wade into territory they haven’t been in for quite some time.
Another potential target is Jon Gray, as Rosenthal notes the Angels “had interest in Gray at the deadline.” Signing Gray would likely add less to the 2022 payroll than Ray, but probably still require the club to lay out a multi-year deal. MLBTR predicted Gray to get a contract of $56MM over four years, an AAV of $14MM.
More from the AL West…
- Even after yesterday’s Adam Frazier trade, the Mariners could still add to their position player mix, with Kris Bryant apparently piquing their interest, per Robert Murray of FanSided. With Kyle Seager now a free agent, Seattle figures to have a new third baseman for the first time in quite a while. Bryant’s bat would certainly be welcome in a Seattle lineup that ranked 22nd in runs scored in 2021. Aside from the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Bryant has had a wRC+ of at least 123 in each season of his career. In 2021, he hit 25 home runs and slashed .265/.353/.481, producing 3.6 fWAR in the process. However, Seattle may have to be patient with their interest in Bryant, as Murray relays that he’s not expected to sign before the transaction freeze that is reportedly going to be implemented after the CBA expires on Wednesday.
- It is widely expected that the expiration of the current CBA on December 1 will lead to a transaction freeze, which has teams and agents scrambling to get business done before then. One thing getting pushed to the backburner is managerial hirings, as Ken Rosenthal reports that teams will still be able to hire managers and coaches during a lockout. (Same link as above.) That means that the two clubs currently without managers, the Mets and Athletics, will likely wait until next week to get serious about searching for new skippers.
Free Agent Notes: Baez, Pham, Mariners
The Mets‘ interest in re-signing Javier Baez reportedly didn’t end with the club’s agreement with Eduardo Escobar yesterday, yet Baez and the Mets are still “apart on price” in contract talks, according to SNY’s Andy Martino (Twitter link). With Starling Marte and Mark Canha also joining the roster, it would seem as though the Mets are already bolstering the lineup in the event that Baez doesn’t return, and their current focus on pitching upgrades could at least temporarily put an end to their efforts to land Baez or any other position players.
Timing could be an issue with Baez, as there has been speculation that he would prefer to get his next contract finalized before the Collective Bargaining Agreement expires on December 1. (Martino is among those who believes Baez will indeed sign prior to that date.) If the gap between Baez and the Mets is too large to overcome in the next few days, that could open the door for one of the other teams known to be interested in the shortstop’s services. The Tigers and Red Sox have been linked to Baez, with the Mariners, Rangers, and Yankees somewhat more speculatively attached to Baez via their interest in the shortstop market as a whole.
More on other free agent situations around baseball….
- Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller said earlier this month that his club had interest in re-signing Tommy Pham, and The Athletic’s Dennis Lin writes that the Padres are indeed still considering Pham for their left field vacancy. After subpar performance in his first two years in San Diego, Pham wouldn’t be too expensive, which Lin notes is still a consideration for a team trying to manage its payroll under the luxury tax threshold if possible. Today’s trade of Adam Frazier to the Mariners cleared some projected salary off the books, and if the Padres do succeed in unloading Wil Myers and/or Eric Hosmer‘s contracts, that will ease an even more substantial amount of the financial burden from Preller’s maneuverings.
- Speaking of the Mariners, the Frazier trade represents Seattle’s first big strike of the offseason, though the club has been rumored in connection with multiple prominent free agents. Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto told MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer and other reporters that the Mariners currently offers on the table to two free agents, with Dipoto noting that one of the two players is “notable.” Reading between the lines, it would seem as if Dipoto was implying that one of the two offers was a significant multi-year pact, while the other offer may have been a shorter-term, less-expensive deal.
Mariners Acquire Adam Frazier From Padres
The San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners have agreed to a three-player trade. The Padres will send All-Star second baseman Adam Frazier to Seattle for left-handed reliever Ray Kerr and outfielder Corey Rosier, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). Both teams have announced the deal, making it official.
Frazier certainly fits the mold of the type of offensive contributor that GM Jerry Dipoto tends to covet. Case and point, the Mariners were said to be interested in Frazier at the trade deadline before he ultimately landed in San Diego.
The soon-to-be 30-year-old is a contact-first bat and well-rounded player who can cover second base on a regular basis or move to the outfield. Though his defensive versatility is a plus, his bat plays best if he’s manning the keystone. Right now, that’s where he is most likely to get the bulk of his playing time. He will share the middle infield with J.P. Crawford, while Abraham Toro and Ty France fill out the infield as Dylan Moore moves into a super utility role.
Frazier was an All-Star last season with the Pirates before slowing down in San Diego. Still, he posted 4.0 rWAR and an overall slash line of .305/.368/.411 over 639 plate appearances between the Pirates and Padres. Frazier is projected to make around $7.2MM in arbitration in what will be his final season before free agency, so he rates as a relatively low-risk, low-cost acquisition for the Mariners.
While a solid contributor, it would be difficult to rank him as a true “difference-maker.” His lack of pop (.131 career ISO) makes him more of a line mover than a run creator, though he will lengthen the Mariners’ lineup and make life difficult on opposing pitchers by putting the ball in play and vying for a high batting average.
Truth be told, he’s a fairly similar player in form and function to his new double play partner in Crawford: sure-handed defenders, light on power and patience, who run well and excel at putting bat-to-ball. Don’t be surprised to see Frazier near the top of the Mariners’ batting order on a regular basis, regardless of where they put his glove.
In terms of his approach, Frazier walked in just 7.5 percent of his plate appearances, below the league-average 8.5 percent walk rate. At the same time, he struck out in a mere 10.8 percent of his plate appearances, a much stronger rate than the 22.3 percent league average. In short, Frazier puts pressure on defenses, while minimizing mistakes on the other end. He’s a quality contributor and the type of player that will give manager Scott Servais plenty of options on both ends.
In exchange for one season of Frazier, the Mariners are sending a hard-throwing southpaw reliever in Kerr and a young outfielder in Rosier. Neither have appeared on prospect lists, though Kerr did appear in Fangraphs‘ supplemental “Arm Strength Relief Sorts” section. Wrote Fangraphs, “Kerr is a late-bloomer who came into big velo ahead of the pandemic. He can dunk a basketball and has superlative weight room exploits as well as rare lefty velo, inconsistently up to 99. His splitter flashes plus and the Mariners have worked with his slider enough to create viable sweep on the pitch but it was a 30 the last I saw it. The strike-throwing and secondary consistency are present issues, too.”
At 27 years old without a Major League appearance, Kerr could be considered a non-prospect, though his ability to hit triple-digits on the radar gun provides some intrigue as a potential power arm out of the bullpen. He was signed as a non-drafted free agent back in 2017, beginning his career as a two-way player, though he has focused on pitching in recent years. The athletic ability is clearly there, the question being whether it can be channeled to turn him from a “thrower” to a “pitcher,” as the saying goes.
Last season, Kerr tossed 39 2/3 innings across 36 appearances in Double-A and Triple-A with a combined 3.18 ERA, inspiring 36.8 percent strikeout rate, and 9.8 percent walk rate. For a Padres team that’s prioritizing pitching depth this offseason, Kerr is a solid gamble to add to the 40-man roster.
Rosier, 22, was a 12th round pick in last year’s amateur draft, signing for a $125K bonus. The Maryland native played his college ball at UNC Greensboro, and he was the #249th ranked prospect in the draft, per Baseball America. He played most of last season in Low-A Modesto, slashing an impressive .390/.461/.585 in 141 plate appearances. He projects as an extra outfielder with the ability to play centerfield. At the plate, his limited power is his biggest shortcoming.
Kerr and Rosier aren’t prospects at the level of Tucupita Marcano, Jack Suwinski, and Michell Miliano, the prospect San Diego sent to Pittsburgh to acquire Frazier at the deadline. That said, there’s no reason to think they’d get back fair value. Kerr fits a need and Rosier helps backfill the farm system at a lower level.
The more motivating factor in this deal for San Diego is financial. Frazier’s deal wasn’t exorbitant, but for a team with limited payroll flexibility, clearing Frazier’s deal from the payroll helps. With Jake Cronenworth, Ha-Seong Kim and Jurickson Profar all under contract, the Padres are set with second base/utility types, where Frazier best profiles. With the financial savings, President of Baseball Ops A.J. Preller can look to re-invest into the pitching staff or in finding an impact bat for an outfield corner.
Marcus Stroman Drawing Widespread Interest
The free agent starting pitching market has gotten off to a fast start, but there hasn’t yet been any movement among the top tier of arms. There’s surely robust interest in each of the class’ top starters, particularly given that the market for mid-tier options has already proven quite strong. Some clarity has emerged on the bidding for one of those top hurlers: right-hander Marcus Stroman.
MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reports (Twitter link) that the Red Sox, Giants, Cubs, Angels and incumbent Mets are among the clubs with interest in Stroman. The Angels were already reported to be suitors, but the other four teams represent newly-known entrants into his market. Jon Morosi of MLB.com, meanwhile, adds the Mariners as another potential suitor for Stroman.
No one in that group is particularly surprising, as each of that quintet has been known to be seeking starting pitching. The Giants, Cubs and Angels have all made one or more notable rotation pickups already, but each reportedly remained in the bidding for Steven Matz even after landing other starters. The Red Sox and Mets were also known Matz suitors, and they’re both facing rotation uncertainty this winter. Boston has already seen Eduardo Rodríguez depart, while the Mets have lost Noah Syndergaard and would need to replace Stroman were he to sign elsewhere.
Stroman’s a sensible target for any team looking to bolster its rotation. The 30-year-old has been a reliable source of above-average innings for essentially the entirety of his career. He’s started 32+ games and exceeded 175 innings in four of the past five full seasons, with his 19 starts and 102 1/3 frames in 2018 the lone exception. (Stroman also opted out of the shortened 2020 campaign). Going back to the start of 2016, he ranks fifteenth in innings pitched, consistently shouldering a heavy workload in spite of his slight frame.
Over the course of his career, Stroman typically hasn’t had an approach geared towards missing many bats. He’s coming off a career-best 11.6% swinging strike rate, though, a mark that’s a hair above the 10.9% league average for starters. Generating an average or better amount of whiffs would be more of an ancillary bonus than anything, as Stroman’s calling cards are plus strike-throwing and plenty of grounders.
The sinkerballer has induced grounders on over half the balls in play against him in each season of his career, routinely surpassing 60% ground-ball rates during his time with the Blue Jays. His 50.8% rate in 2021 was a career-low, but that figure was still eight points above the league mark. That consistency in inducing ground-ball contact has allowed Stroman to remain mostly impervious to longballs, as he’s never allowed even one homer per nine innings in a season during his big league career.
Stroman played out the 2021 campaign with the Mets after accepting the club’s qualifying offer last winter. Players can’t be tagged with a QO more than once in their careers, so Stroman hit the market this winter unencumbered. Signing clubs won’t have to forfeit a draft choice to land the former first-round pick, and the Mets wouldn’t receive any compensation were he to depart.
Between Stroman’s consistently strong track record and the lack of a QO, he profiles as one of the more appealing options in this winter’s class. Stroman doesn’t boast the swing-and-miss stuff of some of this offseason’s other top options, but he’s also proven capable of thriving in spite of below-average strikeout numbers. The Duke University product has posted an ERA under 4.00 in four of his six seasons with 100+ innings pitched, and his 3.02 mark in 2021 was a personal best. Entering the offseason, MLBTR placed Stroman eleventh on the Top 50 free agents, forecasting a five-year, $110MM guarantee.
Mariners, Angels Among Teams Showing Interest In Kevin Gausman
The Mariners and Angels are both showing some degree of interest in free-agent righty Kevin Gausman, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Gausman has also been tied to the Blue Jays and the incumbent Giants, who have been active in the rotation market this week.
Either Seattle or Anaheim would make a sensible destination for Gausman, who enjoyed a breakout showing in San Francisco over the past two seasons. Gausman, who signed a $9MM deal with the 2020 Giants and returned after accepting an $18.9MM qualifying offer, pitched to an even 3.00 ERA with a 30% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate in 251 innings with San Francisco from 2020-21. Both the Mariners and Angels are known to be on the hunt for rotation upgrades, and Seattle in particular has the payroll space to accommodate any free agent on the market.
The Mariners have just four players on guaranteed contracts for the 2022 season and a fairly light arbitration class beyond slugging right fielder Mitch Haniger. All in all, Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez projects a payroll in the $59MM range — more than $100MM lower than the franchise’s previous record-high. Seattle is also in the market for a big right-handed bat in the infield, but the only locks in the rotation at present are Marco Gonzales, Chris Flexen and Logan Gilbert, so some rotation help is sure to be added as well. The biggest question for the Mariners is whether they’ll take the plunge on a pair of marquee free agents (e.g. Gausman and a big-name infielder) or stick to one free agent and make their other big addition on the trade market.
Down the coast in Orange County, the Angels have already made one significant splash in the rotation, adding Noah Syndergaard on a one-year deal worth a guaranteed $21MM. Syndergaard added another high-upside arm to a rotation mix including reigning MVP Shohei Ohtani, Patrick Sandoval, Jose Suarez, Jaime Barria and top prospect Reid Detmers — but the Angels could certainly use a more established and durable arm like Gausman to help stabilize the top end of the rotation.
The question for the Angels is whether they’ll buck a longstanding trend of eschewing long-term deals for pitchers. As recently explored at MLBTR, the last free-agent starting pitcher to whom the Angels committed multiple years was Joe Blanton way back in 2012. The Halos’ recent signing of Aaron Loup was just the third pitcher — free agent or otherwise — the Angels have signed to a multi-year deal since that Blanton signing (the others being a two-year extension for closer Huston Street and a two-year deal buying out Ohtani’s first two arbitration seasons).
The last pitcher the Angels signed for three or more years was C.J. Wilson (five years, $77.5MM) a decade and three general managers ago. The Angels have pursued other free-agent starters on multi-year deals in that time (and reportedly made an offer to Steven Matz this week), but the team has never been comfortable with the top-end prices required to sign those pitchers at the end of the day.
Gausman, now free of a qualifying offer and having repeated his 2020 K-BB% gains over the course of a full season, is likely in position to command a free-agent deal of at least five seasons in length. Gausman ranked fifth on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agent rankings at the beginning of the offseason.
Mariners Select Julio Rodriguez, Two Others
The Mariners announced Thursday that they’ve selected the contract of top outfield prospect Julio Rodriguez, thus adding him to the 40-man roster and protecting him from the 2021 Rule 5 Draft. Also added to the 40-man roster were fellow outfielder Alberto Rodriguez and lefty Ray Kerr. Seattle’s 40-man roster is now up to a total of 39 players.
Rodriguez was about the most obvious 40-man addition any team would make in advance of tomorrow afternoon’s deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 Draft. The 20-year-old is heralded as a potential superstar, ranking as the sport’s No. 2 overall prospect at Baseball America and MLB.com and landing No. 6 over at FanGraphs.
Despite his youth, Rodriguez is expected to make his big league debut at some point in 2022 — if not on Opening Day then perhaps early in the year. (The looming collective bargaining talks could impact the timing.) Rodriguez, 21 in late December, split the 2021 season between Class-A Advanced and Double-A, turning in a dominant .347/.441/.560 against much older and more experienced pitching (particularly in Double-A). The Mariners are expected to be aggressive in free agency and in trades this winter as they look to launch themselves back into the postseason, but president of baseball operations has already stated there’s “no scenario” where Rodriguez or the other very best prospects in his system are traded (link via The Athletic’s Corey Brock).
As for Alberto Rodriguez, the Mariners picked up from the Blue Jays in the 2020 trade that sent Taijuan Walker to Toronto. About nine months older than Julio, Alberto split the 2021 season between Class-A and Class-A Advanced, hitting at a .289/.379/.470 clip with 10 home runs, 31 doubles, five triples and 15 steals. The 21-year-old’s best skill is his considerable raw power, per scouting reports at BA, MLB.com and FanGraphs, though there are concerns about his hit tool and defense in the outfield corners. The elder Rodriguez generally ranks in the No. 20-25 range on Mariners prospects lists, although Seattle has arguably the best farm system in baseball, so he’d place higher with most other teams.
Kerr, 27, joined the Mariners as an undrafted free agent in 2017 and has steadily risen through the system. After working as a starter early in his pro career, the 6’3″ lefty moved to the bullpen in 2021 and notched a combined 3.18 ERA with a huge 36.8% strikeout rate, a slightly high but manageable 9.8% walk rate, and a strong 53% ground-ball rate. A hard-throwing southpaw who can touch the upper 90s, miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at that rate in Double-A/Triple-A would surely have piqued the interest of other clubs. The Mariners’ selection of Kerr immediately thrusts him into the mix for a bullpen spot next season — particularly given the lack of proven southpaws in the relief mix at present.
Latest On Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien
The deadline for players issued qualifying offers to decide on whether or not to accept has now passed, with Brandon Belt of the Giants being the only one out of the group of 14 to accept and return to his previous team. That means the 13 players who turned down the $18.4MM offer are now attached to draft pick forfeiture, including Carlos Correa. Of course, a player of Correa’s skill level won’t see his market greatly affected by a detail like that. In fact, MLBTR recently placed the star shortstop at the top of this year’s list of free agents and projected that he would land a contract of $320MM over ten years, despite the qualifying offer.
Another thing that apparently won’t stand in his way is any lingering resentment out of the Yankee organization in regard to the 2017 Astros sign-stealing scandal. It has been speculated by some people that the Yankees may not want to make a high profile acquisition of Correa, given he was a member of that now-infamous team, which defeated the Yankees in the ALCS before going on to beat the Dodgers in the World Series. But the Yankees decision makers have made comments that seem to suggest it won’t be an issue for them.
When asked if the scandal would play a role in how the team views Correa, Boone said “No,” per Dan Martin of the New York Post, but did acknowledge that the players would have to feel the same way. “Anytime we’re involved in a free agent that’s of large significance and will attract a lot of years and dollars, we’re all gonna feel really good about it.” The article also relays a statement general manager Brian Cashman made last week, saying, “Things like [fan or player sentiment are] not part of that process.”
Hal Steinbrenner evidently feels similar, as Jeff Passan of ESPN relays a quote from the team’s managing partner. “I think most people have moved on from that,” he said. “I mean, I think it’s only healthy to move on from things like that instead of stewing on it year after year. But, you know, people have the opinion that they want to have about that particular player. But, in general, we’re going to look at every single option. It’s the same thing we do every year.”
That’s surely good news for Correa, as he and his representatives will want as many teams in the bidding as possible, especially historically big spenders such as the Yankees. The club is certainly a fit for a shortstop, since moving Gleyber Torres to second base in September. However, they may opt not to make a long commitment to Correa, or any of the other highly-touted free agent shortstops, on account of prospects Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe. “No question that factors in because we do feel in Peraza and Volpe we do have two long-time impact big-league players,’’ said Boone. “We’re excited about those players and believe they are real. That factors into any decisions the organization and [Cashman] make.”
Volpe is generally regarded above Peraza by prospect evaluators, as he is ranked the 18th prospect in all of baseball by FanGraphs, 22nd by Baseball America and 15th by MLB Pipeline, whereas Pereza comes in 48th for FanGraphs and 58th for both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. However, Volpe has only climbed as far as High-A in the Yankees’ system, meaning he’s unlikely to be an option for the big league club in the short term. Peraza, on the other hand, played most of 2021 at Double-A and finished the season with eight games at Triple-A, making it at least feasible that the club decides to forego a big expenditure at the position, although it’s also possible that’s just posturing for negotiating purposes.
Elsewhere around the league, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times doesn’t see the Mariners as a fit for Correa, based on the contract length. He reports that it’s believed Correa is trying to get within range of Francisco Lindor‘s $341MM ten-year extension or “at least an 8- to 9-year deal with an average of $30 million per season and an opt-out clause.” Divish opines that Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto may not want to sign a contract of quite that length, based on his personal experiences trying to work around contracts like that, citing the Albert Pujols contract from Dipoto’s time in Anaheim as well as the Robinson Cano contract that was already on the books when he came to Seattle.
Marcus Semien, however, could be a better fit for the Mariners. He’s almost exactly four years older than Correa – 31 and 27, respectively – meaning he won’t be able to demand a contract of quite the same length. MLBTR predicted he could garner a contract of $138MM over six years, an average annual value of $23MM. But Divish has a different framing on the situation, saying, “The thinking is that the Mariners might have to offer him a five-year, $140-$150 million contract to keep him from going to San Francisco or New York on a four-year deal.”
$150MM over five years would be $30MM per season and make Semien one of the highest-paid players in the game by average annual value, which would be an incredible feat considering that he had to settle for a one-year, $18MM contract with the Blue Jays when he was a free agent a year ago. Like Correa, he also turned down a qualifying offer this week and will now be tied to draft pick forfeiture.