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Report: Cardinals “Poised” To Renew Will Smith Pursuit

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Giants closer Will Smith looks like one of the majors’ most obvious trade chips as the July 31 deadline nears. The left-handed All-Star has already drawn interest from multiple teams, and St. Louis is among those that will join the fray for Smith, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com. As long as they remain in playoff contention, the Cardinals “are poised to pursue” Smith this month, Morosi writes.

Targeting Smith isn’t anything new for the Cardinals, who made an effort to acquire him early last winter. They and the Giants couldn’t come to an agreement, though, nor did San Francisco find an offer to its liking elsewhere. With a Smith pickup out of the question, the Cardinals addressed the left side of their bullpen by signing free agent Andrew Miller to a two-year, $25MM contract. Miller’s 3.81 ERA and 4.72 FIP in 28 1/3 innings since then are much closer to serviceable than great, but he has recorded 13.66 K/9 against 3.81 BB/9, thus helping him bounce back from a rough April.

The 30-year-old Smith has struck out upward of 13 hitters per nine as well, but he has walked about half as many as Miller (1.98) over 36 1/3 frames. Smith has also pitched to a stupendous 1.98 ERA/2.02 FIP and stymied left- and right-handed hitters alike, having limited the former to a .200 weighted on-base average and the latter to a .218 wOBA. Adding to his appeal, Smith has converted all 23 of his save opportunities, and he has done it on an affordable $4.225MM salary. So, even though Smith’s not under control past this season, the Giants shouldn’t have much trouble netting a solid return for the sought-after late-game ace.

In the Cardinals’ case, reeling in Smith would help them replace heat-dealing closer Jordan Hicks, who underwent season-ending Tommy John surgery two weeks ago. Former starter Carlos Martinez has emerged as Hicks’ successor since then, but picking up Smith would potentially enable the Cardinals to deploy the lethal Martinez in a multi-inning setup role. Regardless, Smith, Miller, Martinez, John Gant, Giovanny Gallegos and John Brebbia would make for a fierce game-ending setup – one that could help pitch the Cardinals to the playoffs.

The Redbirds aren’t in playoff position at the moment, having trudged through a letdown of a first half in which they went 44-44. However, they’re still just two games behind the NL Central-leading Cubs and a pair back of a wild-card spot. With a realistic shot at qualifying for the postseason, the Cardinals look as if they’re lining up as buyers.

Cardinals Place Yadier Molina On 10-Day IL; Activate Matt Carpenter

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5:22pm: Molina will likely miss around three weeks and surgery won’t be required, Cardinals manager Mike Shildt told MLB.com’s Anne Rogers and other media.

4:14pm: The Cardinals have announced (Twitter links) a series of roster moves in advance of their second-half opener on Friday.  Catcher Yadier Molina is heading to the 10-day injured list due to a right thumb tendon strain, with an IL placement retroactive to July 8.  Coming back from the IL is infielder Matt Carpenter, who has been out of action since June 29 with a lower back sprain.  The Cards also sent Rangel Ravelo and southpaw Tyler Webb to Triple-A and moved Jordan Hicks to the 60-day IL, while calling up catcher Andrew Knizner and selecting the contract of left-hander Chasen Shreve from Triple-A.

This is the second time this season that Molina has missed time due to his troublesome right thumb, as the same injury also put the longtime St. Louis backstop on the IL from May 31 to June 11.  It’s fair to assume that the nagging nature of Molina’s thumb problem is at least partially responsible for his lack of production this season, though Molina was also struggling prior to May 31.  Overall, Molina has only a .261/.286/.368 slash line and four homers over 276 plate appearances, making him one of several veteran Cardinals who are seemingly all having down years at the same time.

This list includes Carpenter, who has a career-worst .216/.325/.381 with 10 home runs over 326 PA.  While his IL stint was minimal, he and the Cards are surely hoping that this brief time off combined with the All-Star break is enough to finally get his bat moving close to the MVP-level production that Carpenter provided over the last three-plus months of the 2018 season.  Carpenter only had a .739 OPS over his first 234 PA last season before exploding for a .983 OPS over his final 443 PA.

Last season’s results notwithstanding, Carpenter’s cold streak this season has lasted longer and reached deeper depths than his slow start to 2018.  His power and hard-hit ball rates have both fallen significantly, while the quality of his contact has also dropped off (.324 xwOBA in 2019, as opposed to a .392 xwOBA in 2018).

Carpenter will resume his usual duties at third base, though the hot-hitting Tommy Edman retained his spot on the MLB roster after his strong performance as Carpenter’s fill-in.  Knizner and Matt Wieters will handle the catching duties while Molina is out.

Rick Ankiel Likely To End Comeback Attempt

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Former major league pitcher/outfielder Rick Ankiel is nearing “decision time” regarding his potential comeback, agent Scott Boras told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. It’s unlikely the soon-to-be 40-year-old Ankiel will continue his bid to return to the game, though, Goold writes.

Ankiel, who last played in the majors in 2013, first declared his intention to come back last August. Although Ankiel hasn’t pitched in the bigs since 2004, he was hoping to return as a southpaw reliever. However, Ankiel hasn’t bounced back from the surgery he underwent in November to repair his damaged left ulnar collateral ligament, per Goold, who hears that his recovery has “plateaued.”

Had Ankiel been healthy, it seems he would have been given a realistic chance to vie for a spot with the Cardinals – who originally chose him in the second round of the 1997 draft. According to Goold, the Cardinals checked on Ankiel sometime in the past month to see if he was in shape to sign a minor league contract, but president of baseball operations John Mozeliak didn’t hear back.

Ankiel shined at times as both a pitcher and a hitter in St. Louis. In 2000, his best season as a hurler, Ankiel notched a 3.50 ERA with 3.4 fWAR and 9.98 K/9 against 4.63 BB/9 over 175 innings. A lack of control became a major problem for Ankiel the year after, however, and an extreme case of the yips forced him to transition from the mound to the outfield.

Ankiel didn’t garner a large number of at-bats in a season until 2007, the beginning of a two-year stretch in which he slashed .270/.334/.515 (120 wRC+) with 36 home runs and 3.1 fWAR in 653 plate appearances. Ankiel went on to appear in the majors in each of the next five seasons, also spending time with the Royals, Braves, Nationals, Astros and Mets, but experienced limited success with those clubs.

Poll: Disappointing National League Teams

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It wouldn’t have been far-fetched at the beginning of the season to expect any of the Brewers, Cubs, Rockies, Cardinals, Phillies or Mets to end up as part of this year’s National League playoff field. Three of those clubs – Milwaukee, Chicago and Colorado – earned postseason trips a year ago and continued to boast capable rosters coming into 2019. St. Louis won 88 games in 2018 and then made a couple aggressive offseason moves in an effort to get over the hump. Philadelphia and New York were sub-.500 teams last season, though the NL East rivals were among the majors’ busiest franchises over the winter.

With the regular season having reached its brief summer recess, it’s fair to say all of the above clubs have disappointed to varying degrees so far. The Cubs (47-43) and Brewers (47-44) do hold playoff spots at the moment, while the Redbirds (44-44) are just two back of those teams in the NL Central. However, they’ve each contributed to the general mediocrity of their division.

Cubs president Theo Epstein just voiced disgust over his team’s weeks-long slump. Their closest competitors, the Brewers,  have gotten another otherworldly season from reigning NL MVP outfielder Christian Yelich. A thumb injury has helped lead to sizable steps back for 2018 outfield complement Lorenzo Cain, though, while first baseman Jesus Aguilar has a mere eight home runs after slugging 35 a season ago. Meanwhile, the Brew Crew’s pitching staff – like the Cubs’ and the Cardinals’ – has underwhelmed throughout the season. The Cards’ offense has also sputtered, in part because headlining offseason pickup and longtime superstar first baseman Paul Goldschmidt hasn’t resembled the player he was as a Diamondback.

The Rockies (44-45) reached the playoffs last year thanks largely to their starting pitching – something which has seldom been true about the team in its history. This season, though, reigning NL Cy Young candidate Kyle Freeland’s output has been so dreadful that he has spent the past month-plus trying to regain form in the minors. Aside from German Marquez and Jon Gray, nobody else in the Rockies’ starting staff has stepped up to grab a stranglehold of a spot.

Shifting to the NL East, the Phillies are in wild-card position at 47-43, but a .522 winning percentage and a plus-2 run differential may not have been what they had in mind after an action-packed offseason. A record-setting contract for Bryce Harper was the Phillies’ largest strike, but they also grabbed J.T. Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura and David Robertson in other noteworthy transactions. However, at least offensively, Harper, Realmuto and Segura haven’t matched their 2018 production. McCutchen was enjoying another quality season before suffering a season-ending torn ACL a month ago, meanwhile, and Robertson got off to a terrible start in the year’s first couple weeks. The long-effective reliever has been on the injured list since mid-April with a flexor strain. Even with a healthy McCutchen and Robertson, the Phillies would still be riddled with problems in their pitching staff – including the rapidly declining Jake Arrieta, whose season may be in jeopardy because of a bone spur in his elbow.

The Mets are rife with concerns on and off the field, with recent behind-the-scenes drama involving GM Brodie Van Wagenen and manager Mickey Callaway the source of the franchise’s latest unwanted attention. Van Wagenen’s audacious offseason signings and trades were supposed to help the Mets snap a two-year playoff drought this season. Instead, the team’s an abysmal 40-50 through 90 games and on track to sell at the July 31 trade deadline. Trading for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz hasn’t worked out at all, while splashy free-agent additions Jeurys Familia, Jed Lowrie (injured all season and possibly out for the year), Wilson Ramos (a potential trade candidate just a few months into a two-year contract) and Justin Wilson have also failed to meet expectations.

In a league where only the Dodgers and Braves have truly stood out so far, all of these clubs still have at least some chance to earn playoff spots this season. They’re each no worse than seven back of postseason position at the All-Star break. Considering your preseason expectations, though, who’s the biggest disappointment to date?

(Poll link for app users)

Latest On Market For Madison Bumgarner

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We’ll continue our evening trip around the summer starting pitching market in San Francisco, where top rental rotation piece Madison Bumgarner resides. Earlier today, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link) updated the market for the burly southpaw, cataloging a variety of suitors.

The Astros, Braves, and Brewers are newly added entrants to the mix, joining the already reported Twins and Yankees. We’ve certainly seen many or all of these teams cited as possibilities — among others, as MLBTR’s Connor Byrne explored a month back — but this is the clearest indication yet of the kind of competition that could be developing.

All that said, there are limits to Bumgarner’s appeal, as Rosenthal explores. We’ve hashed out many of the pluses and minuses of late; suffice to say that there are good reasons to think the long-time star still has some gas in the tank, but no real reason to believe he’s the stud he once was.

Beyond that, there are also some clear alternatives floating around who’ll also draw attention from contenders. On the rental side, the Mets’ Zack Wheeler (latest rumors) has emerged as a younger, lower-salaried, and arguably higher-upside possibility. Teams that prefer future control could look to Marcus Stroman (latest rumors), Matt Boyd (latest rumors), and perhaps even Trevor Bauer (latest rumors).

Bumgarner’s no-trade rights could certainly play into the equation here, as he’ll have the ability to block deals to most of the interested teams. As Rosenthal originally reported a few months back, the savvy veteran put his eight-team list to full use by naming a host of clear contenders (Braves, Red Sox, Cubs, Astros, Brewers, Yankees, Phillies, Cardinals).

As Rosenthal rightly notes today, there’s also not much reason to think that MadBum would decline to facilitate a move. Beyond the obvious appeal of another shot at postseason glory after a few seasons away, the 29-year-old stands to shed the qualifying offer entering free agency.

The qualifying offer issue may not seem like a major factor for a player of Bumgarner’s stature, but the recent experience of Dallas Keuchel shows it’s still of real importance. Though he placed fourth on the latest free-agent power ranking from MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes, just edging Wheeler, Bumgarner still faces plenty of variability in his ultimate earning power.

Though Bumgarner left his last start with an elbow contusion, it seems he escaped a worrying injury. There’ll be plenty of time still in the run-up to the deadline for Bumgarner to show off his form to interested clubs, including those listed above.

Cardinals Release Tommy Layne

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  • The Cardinals have released left-hander Tommy Layne from their Triple-A club, per the Pacific Coast League transactions log. Layne, 34, has previously pitched for the Padres, Yankees and Red Sox, last appearing in the big leagues with New York in 2017. He’s recorded a solid 3.61 ERA in 149 2/3 innings as a Major Leaguer and gave the Cardinals 29 innings of sub-2.00 ERA ball in the minors last season. However, Layne has been hammered for a 6.45 ERA in 37 2/3 frames this season while allowing 10.5 hits, 1.9 homers and 4.3 walks per nine innings pitched.

Cardinals Place Matt Carpenter On Injured List

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The Cardinals placed third baseman Matt Carpenter on the injured list Tuesday because of lower back spasms, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. They recalled reliever John Brebbia from Triple-A Memphis to take Carpenter’s roster spot. Expectations are Carpenter will return July 12, the first game of the season’s second half, as Mark Saxon of The Athletic tweets. Injury aside, the normally excellent Carpenter is one of several Cardinals to come up short of expectations so far in 2019. The 33-year-old’s off to a .216/.325/.381 start (90 wRC+) with 10 home runs in 326 plate appearances, putting him on pace to fall way shy of last season’s 36-HR outburst. Carpenter hasn’t started since last Tuesday, which has left third base to Tommy Edman and Yairo Munoz over the past week.

The Surprisingly Disappointing Paul Goldschmidt

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There haven’t been many better major leaguers than first baseman Paul Goldschmidt since he made his debut with the Diamondbacks in 2011. From Goldschmidt’s first big league at-bat through last season, he slashed .297/.398/.532 with 209 home runs in 4,708 plate appearances and showed off rare athleticism for his position, adding 124 stolen bases. During his first seven-plus years in the bigs, Goldschmidt tied for sixth in wRC+ (144) and ranked ninth in fWAR (36.2). Goldschmidt did a large portion of that damage on a sweetheart contract for Arizona, which signed him to a five-year, $32MM guarantee entering 2013. When the club made that commitment to Goldschmidt, he was about to begin his first of six straight All-Star seasons.

With Goldschmidt on the brink of a contract year in 2019, he understandably wasn’t going to take a discount this time. And the Diamondbacks weren’t willing to splurge on Goldschmidt, even though he’s a franchise icon, prior to his age-31 season. As a result, the Diamondbacks made the difficult decision to trade Goldschmidt to the Cardinals last December for three players – right-hander Luke Weaver, catcher Carson Kelly and infielder Andy Young – as well as a draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B. It looked like a solid haul at the time for one year of Goldschmidt, and indeed, Weaver and Kelly have impressed this year in the desert.

The Cardinals, who missed the playoffs in each of the previous three years, thought the Goldschmidt acquisition would inject new life into their lineup. The team was thrilled to reel in Goldschmidt, who finally got his enormous payday with a five-year, $130MM extension on the cusp of the season. So far, though, it hasn’t looked like a great allocation of funds. Goldschmidt has underwhelmed enough that he won’t be an All-Star this year, and the Redbirds have consistently taken one step forward and another back en route to a 41-41 record.

St. Louis’ offense ranks 21st in the majors in both runs and and wRC+. After adding one of the premier hitters of the past decade, the club expected much better. Goldschmidt hasn’t done a lot to help matters with his .246/.336/.405 line and 98 wRC+ through 352 plate appearances. While Goldschmidt has slugged 14 home runs, three came in the Cardinals’ second game of the season, when it looked like the start of an ideal match between him and the team.

On its surface, Goldschmidt’s middling production doesn’t mean this is the beginning of the end of an illustrious career. Just last year, he struggled through May before going on a three-month tear to restore his numbers. That said, it would be reasonable to sound some concern over Goldschmidt’s issues this year.

While Goldschmidt put up an expected weighted on-base average of .367 to .404 from 2015-18 – the first four seasons of the Statcast era – he’s down to .343 in that category this season. Granted, that’s definitely not awful – it ranks in the league’s 62nd percentile – though it’s not befitting of the superstar we’ve grown accustomed to watching. Moreover, a high batting average has always been a calling card for Goldschmidt, who’s a lifetime .294 hitter in part because he has registered a .351 BABIP in the majors. Goldschmidt’s BABIP this season has dropped to .302, which could be a sign of bad luck on its face, yet there’s almost no gap between his .246 average/.248 expected BA in 2019. He’s also walking less than he has since 2011, albeit at a still-solid 11.4 percent clip, while chasing more out-of-zone pitches than ever and making less in-zone contact than he has in any season but his rookie introduction.

Less contact on strikes has led to less power for Goldschmidt, who has limped to a .159 ISO thus far. That’s a 75-point drop in comparison to 2011-18 (.234) and a below-average mark relative to the league (.180). Going back to 2018, Goldschmidt showed power all over the strike zone, including on the inner and outer halves of the plate. This year, though, those pitches have largely thrown him for a loop.

When Goldschmidt has gotten on base this season, his long-established ability to steal has been nonexistent. Goldschmidt has swiped at least 15 bags in five seasons, though that number dipped to seven last year and has fallen to zero in 2019. He has only attempted to steal once, in fact, likely because his top speed has waned. Goldschmidt’s sprint speed has gradually come down in recent years and only ranks in the game’s 37th percentile, per Statcast.

Three months into Goldschmidt’s Cardinals career, it’s much too soon to say this type of production is his new normal. Frankly, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Goldschmidt go on a vintage run in the coming months. Considering the Cardinals’ place in this year’s NL postseason chase, not to mention the $22MM per annum they owe Goldschmidt through 2024, they need a rebound from their franchise player sooner than later.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Cardinals To Place Marcell Ozuna On 10-Day IL With Finger Injury

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Cardinals outfielder Marcell Ozuna, who jammed multiple fingers on his right hand, including the middle, which club officials fear may be fractured, in a baserunning incident during last night’s game against San Diego, will be placed on the 10-Day IL shortly, per manager Mike Shildt (h/t to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Derrick Goold). The team is “leaning” toward promoting outfielder Tyler O’Neill to take his place.

Ozuna, 28, has been one of the lone bright spots for a struggling Cardinals offense, slashing .259/.331/.515 (118 wRC+) in regular left-field action for the club.

An aging Cardinal lineup, thought to be driven by the dynamic Matt Carpenter/Paul Goldschmidt duo, has often sputtered in the early going. The club ranks 11th in NL park-adjusted output, with the team’s hitters amassing the fourth-fewest homers in the Senior Circuit despite a hard-hit rate that ranks among the league’s best. Statcast’s xwOBA metric pinpoints both Goldschmidt and Jose Martinez as hard-luck hitters this season, with the latter ranking as one of the league’s unluckiest thus far in 2019.

O’Neill, who’s slumped a bit in both limited big-league action and extended Triple-A time this year (his .261/.312/.528 line is somehow below league-average in the PCL this season), would figure to get the bulk of the action in Ozuna’s absence.  The club could also turn full-time to Jose Martinez, though his corner-outfield defensive metrics again paint a rather bleak picture in semi-regular action thus far.

Alex Reyes Diagnosed With Strained Pectoral

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  • Cardinals righty Alex Reyes has been diagnosed with a strained pectoral muscle that will cost him to two to three starts, according to president of baseball operations John Mozeliak (via Mark Saxon of The Athletic). It’s the latest in a growing line of injuries for the touted Reyes, who, largely because of health issues, hasn’t been able to stay in the majors since his 2016 debut. The 24-year-old has spent almost all of this season at Triple-A Memphis, where he has recorded a 7.39 ERA with 12.21 K/9 and 7.71 BB/9 in 28 innings (10 appearances, seven starts).
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