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MLBTR Podcast: The Phillies’ Outfield, Tarik Skubal, And Hiring College Coaches

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • What positions do the Astros need to target to make it back to the postseason? (41:55)
  • Do the Brewers need to change their contact-over-power approach? (45:20)
  • Will Kyle Tucker’s injuries significantly impact his payday? (47:10)
  • Should the Padres try to sign J.T. Realmuto or stick with Freddy Fermin and Luis Campusano? (49:50)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Murakami To Be Posted This Offseason, Managerial Vacancies, And More! – listen here
  • Rockies’ Front Office Changes, Skip Schumaker, And ABS Talk – listen here
  • Mike Elias On The State Of The Orioles – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Imagn Images

Mets Expected To Show Interest In Tarik Skubal

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Ahead of his final year under team control, Tigers ace Tarik Skubal has gotten plenty of attention as fans and clubs alike have begun to turn their attention towards the offseason. Detroit’s reported extension offer of less than $100MM over four years last offseason does not inspire confidence that the club will be able to lock him up long-term, but president of baseball operations Scott Harris gave a non-answer about Skubal’s future during his end-of-season press conference this past week. It’s impossible to say at this point whether Detroit would consider trading their ace this winter, but Will Sammon of The Athletic writes that the Mets are expected to be involved in that market if Skubal were to be made available.

That’s not exactly a surprise. The Mets had perhaps the most disappointing season in baseball this year given that they missed the postseason during Juan Soto’s first season in Queens after signing a $765MM deal last winter. Much of that disappointment can be chalked up to a lackluster rotation that crumbled down the stretch and posted a 5.09 ERA after July 1 that was good for just 25th in the majors. Injuries and underperformance from virtually every established arm in the rotation mix besides Clay Holmes and David Peterson left New York on the outside looking in this postseason, and while youngsters like Nolan McLean, Brandon Sproat, and Jonah Tong offer some optimism for the future, it would be understandable for the Mets to seek more certainty this winter than they can offer.

When it comes to starting pitching, there might be no pitcher this side of Paul Skenes who offers more certainty than Skubal. He’s pitched to a 2.30 ERA with a 31.2% strikeout rate and a 4.5% walk rate across 387 2/3 innings of work over the past two seasons. That work has already won him one Cy Young award and is likely to win him a second next month. He’s also managed to take things up a notch when the lights are brightest and dominate in the postseason, with a 2.04 ERA, 1.92 FIP, and 37.8% strikeout rate across six playoff starts. Of the 33 starting pitchers with at least 20 postseason innings over the past five years, Skubal boasts the highest strikeout rate, best SIERA, and the fifth-lowest ERA.

Skubal’s resume speaks for itself, and in a free agent market that looks relatively soft on starting pitching options he figures to be all the more attractive. With that being said, there are some reasons to think the Mets might not go all-in for Skubal even if the Tigers do make him available. The lefty is represented by the Boras Corporation, and agent Scott Boras is known for preferring his clients to test free agency rather than sign extensions. That would seem to make it unlikely that the Mets (or any other acquiring club) would be able to keep Skubal long-term after trading for him unless they outbid the field next winter.

New York certainly has the financial wherewithal to do that, but (as the Soto signing last winter showed) they could also look to do so without surrendering what figures to be a massive prospect package to acquire his final year of team control. Sammon suggests that the Mets would be open to considering a deal involving any player besides McLean, who posted a 2.06 ERA in eight starts this year and is viewed as a potential ace in his own right. Sammon speculates that the Tigers could ask for a package along the lines of Tong and Sproat plus top infield prospect Jett Williams in exchange for Skubal’s services.

It should be highlighted that Sammon’s suggested package is purely speculative, but it’s still worth noting that it would be quite out of character for president of baseball operations David Stearns to surrender so much young talent for a one-year rental. That willingness to prioritize the farm system is something that he seemingly has backing from ownership on, given previous comments by Steve Cohen about the club’s current level of spending being unsustainable in the long-term and a desire to support massive deals for players like Soto and Francisco Lindor with young, homegrown talent.

The other side of that conversation is the reality that if the Mets are going to improve their rotation headed into next year, they’ll need to spend either prospect capital or more dollars. Even so, those other avenues to improving could be preferable to giving up a massive package to land Skubal. Brewers right-hander Freddy Peralta is expected to be available in trade this winter, and Sammon floats him as an example of a pitcher who likely could be had for a lower prospect cost than Skubal. The Mets have been unafraid of rolling the dice on pitchers with question marks in the past during free agency, and the upside a player like Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, or Ranger Suarez could offer is immense.

Those alternative options may end up being necessary to pursue even if the Mets decide to pursue Skubal. There’s no guarantees the Tigers will make him available at all, and even if they do New York would hardly be the only suitor for his services. Last offseason’s failed pursuit of Garrett Crochet should serve as a reminder that the Mets aren’t as able to easily outbid the competition on the trade market as they are in free agency; the Red Sox and Craig Breslow were able to offer a massive package for Crochet that few teams in the sport would have been able to match, and even the improved farm system Stearns finds himself with this winter isn’t impossible to outbid with McLean likely off the table.

Latest On Tigers, Tarik Skubal

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October 17th: Evan Petzold of The Detroit Free Press reports that Detroit’s offer after 2024 was for four years and less than $100MM.

October 16th: The Tigers are now down to their final season of control over the American League’s best pitcher. Tarik Skubal is entering his last year of arbitration and trending towards the largest pitching contract in history if he stays healthy.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post wrote this evening that Skubal could seek a deal of at least $400MM. Heyman reports that Detroit’s extension offer last offseason was shy of the $170MM which Garrett Crochet received from the Red Sox in April. Heyman specifies that the Tigers’ offer came before Crochet’s extension.

Much will be made of the more than $200MM gap between those two numbers, but that doesn’t consider the timing of Detroit’s offer. The front office certainly wouldn’t be under any illusions now that a sub-$200MM proposal would be close. Their previous offer came when Skubal was two years from free agency and before the Crochet precedent.

It wasn’t clear last offseason that Crochet would command as strong a deal as he did. That contract was nearly $50MM above the previous top extension for a pitcher with between four and five years of service time (Jacob deGrom’s $120.5MM deal with the Mets from 2019). The Red Sox certainly don’t have any regrets after Crochet’s dominant ’25 season, but that deal pushed the extension market dramatically forward. While it’s not clear precisely what Detroit had offered, it’s safe to presume it was north of the deGrom extension and would have been a record within his service class before the Crochet signing.

Skubal bet on himself and is in position to truly cash in as a result. He’s going to win his second consecutive AL Cy Young Award after posting a 2.21 ERA with 241 strikeouts across 31 starts. He is two and a half seasons removed from the flexor surgery that ended his 2022 campaign. Most importantly, he’s now 12 months away from the open market.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto received the largest guarantee for a pitcher in MLB history when he signed with the Dodgers for $325MM. That was in large part due to his unusual circumstances coming over from Japan. He was an established ace in NPB and widely viewed as one of the two best pitchers (alongside Paul Skenes) who had yet to pitch in MLB at the time. Yamamoto came over before his age-25 season — earlier than any MLB ace could accrue the necessary six years of service time to hit free agency. He commanded a 12-year deal that was three years longer than any other pitching contract.

Among domestic free agent pitchers, Gerrit Cole has the record on his nine-year, $324MM contract with the Yankees. Cole had yet to win a Cy Young but was coming off two straight top five finishes. He hit the market at age 29, while Skubal is on track to become a free agent at 30. Cole’s deal is six years old, so there’ll surely be an adjustment for inflation.

Cole’s $36MM average annual value was a record for a pitcher at the time. It’s now down to sixth — not including the Shohei Ohtani deal — on an annual basis. Late-career aces Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Zack Wheeler have each reached or topped $42MM on two- or three-year contracts. deGrom received $37MM annually on his five-year deal with Texas, while Blake Snell is making $36.4MM per season from the Dodgers (albeit with deferrals that drop the net present AAV to the $31-32MM range).

Those are all free agent precedents. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Skubal for a $17.8MM salary in his last arbitration year. Detroit wouldn’t get much of a discount on an extension, but a long-term deal this offseason would come with the risk that he suffers an injury next year.

The Tigers have signed two contracts above $200MM: Prince Fielder’s free agent deal and Miguel Cabrera’s franchise-high $248MM extension. They’re each more than a decade old and came under the ownership tenure of the late Mike Ilitich. Since his son Christopher Ilitch took control of the organization in 2017, they’ve signed one nine-figure deal — the $140MM Javier Baez addition. Detroit has a relatively clean long-term payroll outlook aside from Baez’s $24MM salaries over the next two seasons. Jack Flaherty has a $20MM player option for 2026, while Colt Keith is signed for $4-5MM for the next four years.

[Related Poll: Should The Tigers Consider A Skubal Trade?]

There’s enough payroll space that it’s conceivable the Tigers could make a competitive extension offer to Skubal. If talks don’t gain traction, they’d need to decide whether to hold him for a final season or entertain trade possibilities. Detroit is coming off consecutive playoff berths and spent most of the ’25 season in control of the AL Central. It’s difficult to envision the Tigers being legitimate contenders in 2026 if they were to trade Skubal, even if they built a return around controllable big league talent. There’s a strong argument for simply holding Skubal in the hope that he carries them to a deep postseason run and making a qualifying offer next winter. If they struggle in the first half, he’d be a marquee deadline trade chip.

The alternative this offseason would be to follow the respective Red Sox, Padres and Astros precedents with Mookie Betts, Juan Soto and Kyle Tucker. Those teams all traded their superstar before his final season of arbitration. That went terribly for Boston. San Diego did very well on the Soto return and has won at least 90 games in each of the past two seasons. The jury is still out on Houston’s trade of Tucker. They got a strong three-player return but came up shy of the postseason this year. Those teams were all navigating short-term payroll restrictions from ownership that shouldn’t be an issue for Detroit with how little money they have on the books.

President of baseball operations Scott Harris gave a non-answer when asked about Skubal’s future during the Tigers’ end-of-season presser on Monday. “I can’t comment on our players being traded … so I’m going to respond by not actually commenting on it,” Harris said. “Tarik is a Tiger. I hope he wins the Cy Young for the second consecutive year. He’s an incredible pitcher and we’re lucky to have him.”

Poll: Should The Tigers Consider A Tarik Skubal Trade?

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The Tigers lost a heartbreaker in Game 5 of the ALDS when they fell to the Mariners in 15 innings. Detroit was viewed as one of the best teams — if not the best team — in baseball throughout the first half but slumped to a 34-43 record from the start of July onward. They lost control of the AL Central despite boasting an 11.5-game lead on August 23rd, but they managed to put away the Guardians in the AL Wild Card Series even after ceding the division crown to them just days earlier.

It’s easy to argue that Detroit would not have made it to the postseason at all if not for ace Tarik Skubal, the reigning AL Cy Young winner and 2025 Cy Young frontrunner. Over the past two seasons, Skubal has posted numbers that few pitchers can hope to match — 387 1/3 innings, 2.30 ERA, 31.2 K%, 4.5 BB% — and he’s been essential to both of Detroit’s runs into the playoffs for the past two years.

Skubal won’t be around forever, however. He’s scheduled to hit free agency during the 2026-27 offseason. With just $28.3MM on the books in guaranteed contracts for 2027 according to RosterResource, one can argue that the Tigers must do whatever it takes to extend Skubal or re-sign him in free agency. An extension doesn’t appear likely, though. If Skubal turns in a season anything like his 2024-25 campaigns, he could justifiably take aim at setting a new record among starting pitchers. Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325MM deal with the Dodgers stands as the current mark after narrowly edging out Gerrit Cole’s $324MM deal with the Yankees.

The Tigers have never spent more on a player than they did Miguel Cabrera, who they inked to an eight-year, $248MM extension back in 2014. The Tigers of the past few years haven’t come close to approaching the sort of overall spending they put forward during the 2016-17 seasons, when they carried a payroll in the $200MM range.

Would the Tigers be willing to give out a franchise-record deal to keep their ace? Asked about the matter after his season ended, Skubal himself told the Tigers’ beat that his job is “to go out there and play” and that such conversations are better left to the front office (via The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen). President of baseball operations Scott Harris isn’t tipping his hand publicly one way or another, however.

“Listen, I totally understand the question and understand that you have to ask me,” Harris said at the team’s end-of-season press conference when asked about Skubal’s future (video link, with the Skubal question landing around the 16:00 mark). “I’ve kind of learned over time, especially with this question, that general comments tend to get chopped up and forced into narratives. I can’t comment on our players being traded. I can’t comment on free agents, and I can’t comment on other teams’ players. So, I’m going to respond by just not actually commenting on it. Tarik is a Tiger. I hope he wins the Cy Young for a second consecutive year. He’s an incredible pitcher, and we’re lucky to have him. That’s all I can say on that.”

Fans of other clubs are understandably captivated with the idea of seeing their favorite clubs make a run at a Skubal trade. One could argue that if the Tigers don’t believe a long-term deal is possible, they’re better prioritizing long-term health of the organization than employing a win-at-all-costs-in-2026 mentality.

It goes without saying that having Skubal at the front of the team’s rotation would give Detroit its best chance of bringing home a championship next year. In addition to his dominant regular season work, he’s been a menace in the postseason with a 2.04 ERA, 1.92 FIP, and a 37.8% strikeout rate across his six starts. Skubal has not just been essential to the Tigers getting to October over the past two years, but he’s managed to shine when the lights are brightest.

Zooming out to look at the larger Tigers organization reveals that Detroit may not be particularly close to full power yet. Star pitching prospect Jackson Jobe made just ten starts this year before he was sidelined by Tommy John surgery, which is likely to eliminate his entire 2026 campaign. Even setting Jobe aside, the Tigers are bringing along a number of elite prospect talents who figure to make their big league debuts in the next few years. Shortstop Kevin McGonigle is considered one of the sport’s top 10 prospects and should make his way to the majors next year. Outfield prospect Max Clark is also frequently ranked as a top-10 leaguewide prospect, while catcher Josue Briceno and shortstop Bryce Rainer are typically regarded as top-50 talents.

That upcoming crop of youngsters could pair with Jobe and the team’s existing young core to produce a behemoth that competes for years to come. Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, and Spencer Torkelson are all controlled through 2028, while Reese Olson is controlled through 2029, Dillon Dingler will be in town through 2030 and Colt Keith is locked up through 2032.

Proponents of a trade would argue that Skubal would fetch the sort of high-end talent who can help replace not only Skubal himself but also other key veterans like Casey Mize, Gleyber Torres, and Jake Rogers. On the other hand, the Tigers already have a touted farm system and know all too well how uncertain the future of even elite prospects can be.

It wasn’t long ago that Mize and Torkelson were viewed just as highly as McGonigle and Clark are now. They both contributed to the 2025 team, but neither has turned out to be the sort of franchise-defining player the Tigers hoped to be getting when each was drafted with the No. 1 overall pick. Even Skubal battled through four seasons of injuries and mediocrity before coming into form as a superstar last year.

How do MLBTR readers think the Tigers should proceed with Skubal this winter? Should they trade him to load up for the future or should the maximize the 2026 even with no guarantees of signing him long-term? Have your say in the poll below:

Tigers Notes: Skubal, Bullpen, Vierling

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Tigers ace Tarik Skubal gave the team a scare last week when he exited his start due to tightness in his left side. The obvious initial concern was that Skubal had suffered an oblique or intercostal strain that could necessitate a notable absence, but subsequent testing did not reveal a major injury. Several days of rest appear to have eased any discomfort the Cy Young front-runner was feeling. Skubal told the Tigers beat yesterday that he felt “100 percent” one day after a bullpen session.

“If anything, I probably worked a little bit harder just to make sure that I was good to go,” Skubal said of Monday’s bullpen session (via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com). “There was nothing there. It was all good.”

Skubal added that he fully anticipates making his next start tomorrow. He called last week’s early exit “one of those weird things” and wasn’t sure what had caused the discomfort, but for now, it seems the issue is largely behind him. For a Tigers club that’s already lost Reese Olson and Jackson Jobe for the season, Skubal’s ostensibly clean bill of health creates an even greater sigh of relief.

Outside of Skubal, Detroit’s rotation has been a mess since the trade deadline. Neither Charlie Morton nor Chris Paddack, the Tigers’ two rotation additions ahead of the deadline, has bolstered the staff. Morton sports a woeful 5.92 ERA in eight starts since coming to the Motor City, and Paddack has already been moved to the bullpen after posting a 6.38 ERA in five starts. Jack Flaherty (5.14 ERA in his past eight starts) and Casey Mize (4.85 ERA in his past eight starts) have also been limping to the finish line. Overall, the Tigers’ rotation has a 4.77 ERA dating back to Aug. 1 — and that number skyrockets to 5.40 when subtracting Skubal’s contributions.

The Tigers deployed their “pitching chaos” tactic to great effect late last season, using Skubal as their lone traditional starter and otherwise deploying an all-hands-on-deck approach. They haven’t reverted to that form just yet, and it’s worth noting that both Mize and Flaherty have had some strong starts in the past couple weeks. Presumably, Flaherty and Mize are the favorites for postseason starts behind Skubal right now, but last year’s approach showed that the Tigers aren’t beholden to conventional setups with their pitching staff.

Detroit is also hoping for some reinforcements in the bullpen sooner than later. Yesterday’s injury report from the club indicated that right-hander Kyle Finnegan tossed a bullpen session yesterday. He landed on the shelf earlier this month due to an adductor strain. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press tweets that Finnegan, who tossed 14 1/3 shutout innings after being acquired from the Nationals in July, could embark on a rehab assignment in the near future.

Fellow deadline pickup Paul Sewald has already started his own rehab assignment as he works back from a July shoulder injury. He’s allowed one run and punched out four hitters in 4 2/3 innings of rehab work — most recently pitching two-thirds of an inning just last night. A return shouldn’t be too far off, barring any late setbacks.

While the updates on Skubal, Finnegan and Sewald are largely positive, the news regarding outfielder/third baseman Matt Vierling is far less rosy. Vierling, out since early August due to an oblique strain, began a minor league rehab assignment earlier this week. However, the Tigers announced in their latest injury report that Vierling has been pulled from that rehab stint after just one game due to continued soreness in his oblique region.

“I’m going to stop short of calling it a setback because I don’t know that yet,” manager AJ Hinch said last night (via Chris McCosky of the Detroit News). “But it’s clearly slowed down our plan with him. He’s pretty bummed out about it and he should be. We are, too. It’s just a matter of being re-evaluated and seeing what he can tolerate and what we can hope for.”

Hinch didn’t declare Vierling out for the season but conceded that the best he could answer regarding Vierling’s playoff availability was a simple, “I don’t know.” Presumably, Detroit will have more information on his status in the next few days.

It’s been a frustrating season for Vierling, who turned 29 the same day he had to be pulled from that rehab stint. He’s been limited to just 31 games and 100 plate appearances due to a pair of shoulder injuries and a pair of strains in his left oblique. When on the active roster, he’s turned in a tepid .239/.310/.307 batting line.

That pedestrian line is a far cry from Vierling’s quietly solid .257/.312/.423 performance during a 2024 season that saw him connect on a career-high 16 home runs. Vierling also set highwater marks in doubles (28), games played (144) and plate appearances (567). On the other side of the ball, he chipped in passable glovework at third base and above-average defense across all three outfield spots. It’s still possible he makes it back to the roster, particularly if the Tigers go on a deep run in October, but a return doesn’t appear to be on the immediate horizon.

Tarik Skubal Day-To-Day After Leaving Game Due To Side Tightness

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TODAY: Tests revealed no serious issue, Hinch told The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen and other reporters today.  Skubal may even be able to make his next start, though the club will continue to monitor his status on a daily basis.

SEPTEMBER 12: Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal was removed from tonight’s contest in the fourth inning. He motioned to the dugout to call someone out to the mound. Manager A.J. Hinch and a member of the training staff visited him and the lefty was quickly lifted. Per Chris McCosky of Detroit News, he is experiencing tightness in his left side and is being evaluated.  ESPN’s Jeff Passan describes the injury as “discomfort near his left rib cage,” noting that Skubal will undergo imaging on Saturday.

More details will be revealed in time. Any injury at all is potentially a massive development, given the calendar and Skubal’s importance. There are just over two weeks remaining in the regular season, so even a minimal IL stint at this point runs to the final days of the schedule. Anything longer than that would push into the postseason.

Skubal is the last player the Tigers want to lose to an injury. Arguably, his absence would be more notable than any other player in the majors. He has been one of the best pitchers in baseball in recent years, if not the very best. Last year, he made 31 starts with a 2.39 earned run average, 30.3% strikeout rate, 4.6% walk rate and 45.7% ground ball rate. He was the unanimous choice for the American League Cy Young award. He made another three starts for Detroit in last year’s playoffs. He has continued that pace here in 2025. He came into tonight with 180 innings, a 2.10 ERA, 32.6% strikeout rate, 4.1% walk rate and 40.7% grounder rate.

The Tigers are in a comfortable spot in terms of qualifying for the playoffs. Entering play tonight, they have a lead of 8.5 games on the Guardians in the Central division. They are also five games clear of the Mariners/Astros for the second bye through the first round. However, in the postseason, teams lean more heavily on their best pitchers. With more off-days in the playoffs, the top dogs can take on a larger percentage of the innings pitched.

If healthy, Skubal would be the clear top of the Detroit rotation, with Casey Mize, Jack Flaherty and Charlie Morton behind him. If Skubal needs to miss some time in October, then those three would each bump up a slot.

For the rest of the regular season, though the Tigers are in a decent spot, they may still have to scramble a bit if Skubal is unavailable. They put Sawyer Gipson-Long on the injured list earlier today, dropping their rotation from five to four members. Morton is scheduled to go tomorrow, followed by a bullpen game on Sunday. After an off-day Monday, the club plans to have Mize and Flaherty pitch on Tuesday and Wednesday. Skubal was lined up for Thursday. Morton could perhaps pitch that game on regular rest or the Tigers could do another bullpen game. They have guys like Keider Montero, José Urquidy and Chris Paddack in the bullpen, each capable of covering multiple innings.

That will be a secondary concern to October. As mentioned, the Tigers are in a good spot in the standings and highly likely to make the playoffs, with a strong chance at a first-round bye as well. The games in October are far more important than anything in the next two weeks. Perhaps Skubal will be given a bit of rest with the hope of having him ready for the playoffs, though everything naturally hinges on the nature and severity of his injury.

Photo courtesy of Sam Navarro, Imagn Images

Poll: AL Cy Young Race Check-In

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While a few of this season’s awards don’t appear to be terribly competitive headed into the final month of the season, one race that still appears to be wide open is that for the AL Cy Young award. MLBTR last checked in on the race back in June, at which point Tigers ace Tarik Skubal was viewed as the heavy favorite to capture his second consecutive Cy Young, with nearly 46% of the vote and nearly double second place finisher’s total.

Skubal is still a strong contender for the award, of course, and perhaps even the favorite. Through 26 starts this year, the southpaw has logged 166 innings of 2.28 ERA ball. He’s struck out 33.5% of his opponents with a phenomenal 3.9% walk rate, giving him the best K-BB% in baseball this year. That mix of strikeout stuff and pinpoint command is Skubal’s bread and butter, as his other metrics this year have been closer to average than exceptional. His ground ball rate is a cromulent 40.7% this year, and his 8.7% barrel rate ranks 15th among 30 qualified AL hurlers. Skubal’s last start was an unusual one, as he surrendered six runs in 6 2/3 innings of work but only one of those six runs was considered earned. Even with those five runs not countered against his ledger, he’s posted a 3.05 ERA and 3.55 FIP in the month of August. That performance is strong but not quite on the level of some other contenders.

While Skubal’s numbers haven’t changed too drastically since June, he’s found a rival for his position as the AL’s best lefty strikeout artist in the form of Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet. The 26-year-old has more or less matched Skubal in virtually every stat. He had 166 1/3 innings of work to Skubal’s aforementioned 166 through 26 starts, though Crochet’s six-innings of two-run ball against the Orioles yesterday pushed his total up to 172 1/3. His 2.40 ERA is within spitting distance of Skubal’s own figure, and his 31.1% strikeout rate is just a couple of points behind. Where he falls more significantly behind Skubal is his walk rate, as he’s allowed free passes at a 6.1% clip.

He makes up for the gap in K-BB% somewhat with stronger batted ball numbers, however. He’s generating grounders at a 48.5% clip, and his 7.2% barrel rate is the sixth-best figure in the AL. For those inclined towards more traditional metrics, Crochet also sports an AL-best 14 wins on his record. Crochet’s 3.19 ERA in August didn’t separate him from Skubal significantly, but his peripherals (including a 2.96 FIP) are significantly better over that span. If he can turn those peripherals into production in September, perhaps that will be enough to separate himself from Skubal.

Of course, Crochet and Skubal aren’t the only two options to consider. Astros right-hander Hunter Brown is in the midst of a breakout season that deserves serious consideration. Through 26 starts, Brown’s 155 2/3 innings of work lag behind the totals of the two lefties, but his numbers are undeniably impressive. He’s posted a 2.37 ERA with a 46.0% ground ball rate and a 29.1% strikeout rate. Brown’s 6.1% barrel rate is the second-best figure in the AL this year, though he’s held back somewhat by his 7.6% walk rate.

When looking at Brown’s recent work, it’s something of a mixed bag. His 1.71 ERA in August is obviously fantastic, but it comes with an asterisk after he allowed four unearned runs in his most recent start. His 22.2% strikeout rate is also far below his typical norms, but his 2.71 FIP is nothing short of excellent. Brown seems to be a step behind both Skubal and Crochet at this point, but it’s easy to imagine him pushing himself more firmly into the conversation with a strong September.

Brown, Skubal, and Crochet seem like the top three players in the race at this point, but there are some other arms who deserve acknowledgment as well. Nathan Eovaldi has a sensational 1.73 ERA in 22 starts this year, but with just 130 innings of work and a rotator cuff strain that’s likely season-ending, it would be a shock if he got more than down-ballot consideration for the award. Jacob deGrom’s first healthy season in half a decade has been extremely impressive with a 2.79 ERA, but the 37-year-old’s peripherals pale in comparison to the other top starters in the league. Max Fried’s season with the Yankees started out incredibly impressive, but his 5.33 ERA since the start of July has likely pushed him out of the conversation for the most part.

With just a month left to go in the season, who do you think will come out on top in the AL Cy Young race? Have your say in the poll below:

Who will win the 2025 AL Cy Young?
Tarik Skubal 59.81% (2,941 votes)
Garrett Crochet 29.61% (1,456 votes)
Someone Else 6.00% (295 votes)
Hunter Brown 4.58% (225 votes)
Total Votes: 4,917

Tigers Designate Brewer Hicklen For Assignment

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The Tigers announced Wednesday that they’ve designated outfielder Brewer Hicklen for assignment. His spot on the 40-man roster will go to right-handed pitching prospect Troy Melton, whose contract has been selected from Triple-A Toledo (as was previously reported). In order to open a 26-man roster spot for Melton, ace Tarik Skubal was placed on the paternity list. Skubal can be absent for up to 72 hours.

Detroit picked up Hicklen in a March 28 trade sending cash back to the Brewers. He’s appeared in just one game for the Tigers in 2025, going 2-for-3 with a walk in that lone appearance. The bulk of Hicklen’s season has come in Triple-A, where he’s carrying a .227/.335/.394 batting line (99 wRC+) with eight home runs and 14 stolen bases. He’s walked at a strong 11.4% clip but also fanned in more than 30% of his plate appearances.

The 29-year-old Hicklen has just 13 major league plate appearances under his belt. The two hits he collected with Tigers were the first of his major league career. Hicklen has played in parts of four Triple-A seasons and has a .242/.351/.466 slash through 1598 plate appearances. He’s played all three outfield spots in his career and has good speed to go along with a solid track record in Triple-A (contact issues notwithstanding). He’s in the second of three minor league option years.

The Tigers will trade Hicklen or place him on waivers within the next five days. If he’s placed on waivers, that’ll be another 48-hour process. His DFA will be resolved within a week’s time. He hasn’t been outrighted to this point in his career and doesn’t have three years of big league service, so if he clears waivers Hicklen will stick with the Tigers as a depth option who’s no longer on the 40-man roster.

Poll: AL Cy Young Race Check-In

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While days off and postponements leave clubs around the league without a uniform number of games played, one of the games in this week’s slate will represent the halfway point in the season for every team across MLB. Earlier this week, we checked in on the MVP race in both the American League and the National League as players around the game gear up for the second half. Those races are dominated by position players, so today we’ll turn our attention more firmly towards the league’s pitchers. Who are the frontrunners for the Cy Young Award in both leagues? We’ll be taking a look at some of the top candidates this week, starting with the American League today:

Tarik Skubal

The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner tops the list of contenders again this year. Somehow, Skubal has been even more dominant than he was last year. Through 16 starts and 102 innings, he has improved his ERA (2.29), FIP (2.11), strikeout rate (32.1%), walk rate (3.3%), SIERA (2.46), and xERA (2.61) relative to his full season numbers last year. He’s even pitching slightly deeper into games so far this year, averaging 6.37 innings per start as compared to last year’s 6.19.

For a hurler who won the pitching Triple Crown in the AL last year to improve upon that performance the very next year is remarkable, and Skubal figures to remain the favorite to win the award for a second consecutive season if he can maintain this level of production going forward. There’s plenty of competition in the AL, however, so even a minor slip up down the stretch could give the edge to another candidate.

Garrett Crochet

Crochet has been nearly as dominant as Skubal in many respects. After breaking out with the White Sox last year and getting traded to the Red Sox over the offseason, he’s turned in a 2.06 ERA and 2.53 FIP across 17 starts. Crochet leads the majors with 109 1/3 innings pitched, and while his 31.3% strikeout rate is just behind that of Skubal, he’s still struck out more batters (135) than any pitcher in baseball this year. While Crochet and Skubal appear to be more or less equals on paper, with Crochet having a lower ERA and an extra start under his belt while Skubal has stronger peripheral numbers, there are some other factors working against Boston’s ace.

Crochet is more or less untested in the second half after throwing just 40 2/3 innings after July 6 last year. After that date, the lefty never recorded an out in the fifth inning or later and topped out at just 77 pitches in an outing. Even with that less strenuous workload, his numbers suffered as he posted a 4.87 ERA down the stretch. Chicago’s decision to handle Crochet gently down the stretch last year was an understandable one given his injury history, but it creates some uncertainty about how he’ll handle the first true full-season starter’s workload of his career. Additionally, Crochet has a 7-4 record on a team that might wind up selling at the trade deadline this year. While the Cy Young is an individual award, some voters consider a pitcher’s record and their team’s success, which could benefit other candidates with more dominant records on clear playoff teams.

Max Fried

Signed to the largest deal for a left-handed pitcher in MLB history this past offseason, Fried has stepped up as the Yankees’ new ace while Gerrit Cole rehabs from Tommy John surgery. Fried has a sterling 1.92 ERA in 17 starts (108 innings), though he’s done so without the gaudy strikeout numbers of other top Cy Young contenders. His 24.5% strikeout rate is above-average but not otherworldly, but he makes up for that by walking just 4.9% of his opponents and generating grounders at a 53.1% rate.

Even with a career-high 6.5% barrel rate allowed this year, Fried remains one of the sport’s best hurlers when it comes to pitching to contact. His 2.74 FIP and 3.17 SIERA are both elite as well, and more traditional voters will love his 10-2 record, which is good for the most pitcher wins in baseball this year and the best winning percentage in the AL.

Hunter Brown

Brown is in the midst of an exciting breakout season with the Astros at just 26 years old. His 1.88 ERA is the lowest figure in all of baseball among qualified starters, and while he has just 91 innings of work under his belt so far, he’s still averaging more than six innings per start. Brown’s heroics have helped push the Astros back to the front of the pack in the AL West after a tough start to the year.

There are some reasons to doubt Brown’s ability to sustain quite this level of dominance. He’s benefited from a .244 BABIP and an 88.4% strand rate. That good fortune on batted balls and sequencing is very likely to regress toward the mean eventually, though his 2.84 FIP and 2.96 SIERA are still excellent thanks largely to a 31.6% strikeout rate, an 8.1% walk rate and a strong 46.8% ground-ball rate.

Kris Bubic

Bubic has picked up the slack for injured ace Cole Ragans in the Kansas City rotation and has put together an elite season that rivals any of his competition on this list. He’s posted an excellent 2.18 ERA, fanned 26% of his opponents and kept his walk rate down at a sharp 7.3%. Bubic has had some good fortune when it comes to home runs, however; only 4.8% of the fly-balls he’s allowed have cleared the fence, as compared to the 15.1% homer-to-fly-ball rate he carried into the season. It’s doubtful he can continue quite that level of home run suppression, but he has the makings of a front-line arm even if a few more of those flies start leaving the yard.

Bubic has tossed 91 innings in 15 starts, averaging just a hair over six frames per outing. It’s worth wondering how he’ll hold up as the season wears on. Bubic underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023 and pitched just 66 combined innings between the big leagues and minors. His 91 frames are already his most in a season since he pitched 142 2/3 innings in 2022.

Jacob deGrom

This is the healthiest deGrom has been in a half decade, but you wouldn’t notice virtually any layoff based on the results. The multi-time Cy Young winner has posted a 2.08 ERA and 3.02 FIP across 95 1/3 innings in his age-37 season. He’s set down 25.9% of his opponents on strikes and only walked 5.5% of the batters he’s faced. deGrom had some short starts early, but he’s averaging nearly 6 1/3 innings per outing with a 1.67 ERA dating back to April 18.

As with Bubic, there are workload questions. This is already the most innings deGrom has pitched in a season since 2019. He’s only 33 1/3 innings away from matching his combined total from 2022-24 (majors and minors included).

Other Options

The field of potential AL Cy Young candidates this year is a very deep one. Framber Valdez remains one of the sport’s top ground ball pitchers with a 59.5% grounder rate to go alongside his 2.88 ERA and 3.04 FIP in 16 starts. Joe Ryan has a 2.86 ERA, including a 2.38 mark over the past two months. Drew Rasmussen boasts a 2.45 ERA, but his 84 1/3 innings place him more than 30 frames behind the league leaders. They’re all pitching well enough that a big second half could get them in the conversation. Nathan Eovaldi has an absurd 1.56 ERA on the season, but he’s missed the past month with triceps inflammation. Relievers Andrés Muñoz (18 saves, 1.21 ERA), Aroldis Chapman (14 saves, 1.36 ERA) and Josh Hader (21 saves, 1.73 ERA) have all been brilliant, but it’s hard enough for relievers to get consideration in a normal season — let alone one where the top group of starters has performed this well.

Who do you think will ultimately come out on top in AL Cy Young voting? Will Skubal reign supreme once again, or could another challenger step up to claim the trophy? Have your say in the poll below:

Who Will Be The AL Cy Young Winner In 2025?
Tarik Skubal 45.94% (2,917 votes)
Max Fried 25.34% (1,609 votes)
Garrett Crochet 10.69% (679 votes)
Hunter Brown 8.36% (531 votes)
Jacob deGrom 6.88% (437 votes)
Other (Specify In Comments) 1.45% (92 votes)
Kris Bubic 1.32% (84 votes)
Total Votes: 6,349

Tigers, Tarik Skubal Avoid Arbitration

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The Tigers agreed to a one-year, $10.15MM deal with reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. It’s a massive, nearly 300% raise on top of last year’s $2.65MM salary for the 28-year-old, handily topping the $8MM projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Skubal, who’s under club control through the 2026 season, will be arb-eligible one more time next winter.

Skubal unanimously won American League Cy Young honors after a dominant breakout showing in which he paced the AL in wins (18), ERA (2.39), strikeout rate (30.3%), K-BB% (25.6%) and virtually every form of wins above replacement (6.3 bWAR, 5.9 fWAR, 6.5 RA9-WAR). The left-hander tossed 192 innings, punched out 228 opponents against just 35 walks and held opponents to only 15 homers. Skubal completed at least six innings in 25 of his 31 starts and held opponents to two or fewer runs on 24 of his 31 trips to the bump. He was as consistently dominant an arm as the sport had to offer, registering an ERA no worse than 3.05 in any individual month of the season.

That dominant performance from Skubal played a major role in Detroit’s surprise run to the postseason — and in the team’s upset win over the Astros in the American League Wild Card series. Skubal was flat-out dominant in the first two playoff starts of his career, tossing a combined 13 shutout innings with 14 strikeouts, one walk and just seven hits allowed in gems over Houston and Cleveland. He took the mound for the decisive Game 5 in the intra-division ALDS showdown against the Guardians and cruised through most of his start until being tagged for a backbreaking grand slam off the bat of Guards outfielder Lane Thomas.

It was a sour note on which to end an otherwise storybook season for both player and team, but Skubal has nevertheless entrenched himself among the game’s elite arms. The Tigers and their fan base would surely love to extend the star southpaw, though as a 28-year-old Scott Boars-represented ace who’s just two seasons away from reaching free agency and a potential $200MM+ payday — perhaps more, depending on how the next two seasons play out — Skubal seems decidedly unlikely to sign a long-term pact.

Looking ahead to the 2025 season, Skubal will get the Opening Day nod and front a staff also including Reese Olson and free-agent pickup Alex Cobb. Presumably, top prospect Jackson Jobe, who debuted late in the 2024 campaign, will have the inside track on a job as well, though at just 22 years old and with minimal experience above the Double-A level, he won’t simply be handed the spot. He’ll need to earn it in spring training.

Former No. 1 pick Casey Mize, rebound hopeful Kenta Maeda, right-hander Keider Montero and former top first-rounders Matt Manning, Alex Faedo and Ty Madden will all be in the mix for rotation work as well — at least as things currently stand. It’s still plenty feasible, whether by free agency or trade, that the upstart Tigers add to the rotation in a meaningful way between now and Opening Day.

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