Tarik Skubal

Tarik Skubal underwent arthroscopic surgery on May 6 to remove loose bodies from his left elbow, but the two-time defending AL Cy Young Award winner has already started playing catch, Tigers manager A.J. Hinch told MLB.com’s Jason Beck and other reporters.  This most basic stage of Skubal’s throwing progression will see the left-hander “continue to play catch daily until we ramp him up to the bullpen [sessions],” Hinch said, though all parties will remain in consultation with Dr. Neal ElAttrache, who performed the surgery.

“I was texting back and forth with [Skubal] last night, and he feels super excited about just the general feeling [of throwing],” Hinch said.  “It doesn’t feel weird.  It doesn’t feel awkward.  It’s not guarded.  I’ve seen video of it.  We’re in touch with him daily about the program, and that sort of freedom, mentally and physically, I think is a great sign.  We’ve been in touch with the doctor and making sure that we’re going by the protocol, because it’s a unique set of circumstances of him throwing so soon in which the volume was not impacted.”

The recovery process is still in its early stages, so Hinch said a clearer timetable for Skubal wouldn’t be known until the southpaw starts to ramp up the intensity of his throwing sessions and gets onto a mound.  Still, it is certainly promising to see Skubal already feeling well enough to throw so soon after the procedure.

In general, arthroscopic surgeries usually lead to pitchers missing between 2-3 months of action, though much depends on what types of loose bodies (bone chips, cartilage, etc.) need to be removed, as well as other x-factors like the overall state of the individual pitcher’s elbow.  Skubal is no stranger to major surgeries, as he underwent a Tommy John procedure in college and a flexor tendon surgery in August 2022 that kept him out of action until July 2023.

In this case, however, Skubal underwent a Nanoscope procedure.  As Beck puts it, this method “is less invasive and uses a smaller incision than a typical arthroscopic surgery, was hoped to result in a quicker resumption of activity.”  It would seem like the Nanoscope has indeed allowed Skubal to make some early progress, though it remains to be seen if the left-hander will be able to return to Detroit’s active roster in any shorter order.

The Tigers surely won’t want to rush Skubal in any way, as any sort of setback would elongate his recovery timeline and potentially even put his entire season in jeopardy.  Bigger-picture considerations are also naturally in play here, given how Skubal is a free agent this winter.  It is already possible that this injury absence could impact Skubal’s attempts to land the largest pitching contract in history, but the southpaw obviously wants to return as soon as safely possible in order to both help the Tigers win in 2026 and to boost his own case for a record-setting payday.

Despite a 20-25 record and a cavalcade of injuries, Detroit is far from out of it given the parity in the American League.  If the Tigers can at least tread water until Skubal and other injured players can return, it is still very possible Detroit can secure a wild card berth or even the AL Central crown.  However, if the Tigers are firmly out of the playoff race by July, the equation on Skubal’s readiness might change to whether or not the ace is able to display his health for any possible suitors heading into the trade deadline.

Tarik Skubal is scheduled to reach free agency next winter, and it would appear that any chances of an extension between the star southpaw and the Tigers are going from slim to none.  As Skubal told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the Tigers didn’t discuss a long-term contract with the left-hander this winter.

“There is no offer” from the team right now, Skubal said, and “there won’t be an offer until the end of the season….My focus is on playing baseball and winning this year.  I’ll deal with the contract stuff at the end of the year, and then we’ll kind of see.  And that’s fine.  It’s their decision.”

There also weren’t any talks about even a one-year deal covering Skubal’s 2026 salary once Skubal filed for a $32MM figure in his final year of salary arbitration.  This lack of talks was expected, since the Tigers adhere to the “file and trial” tactic adopted by most every big league team — if an agreement isn’t reached prior to the filing deadline, teams often cease all negotiations with the player unless the topic is a multi-year contract (or the work-around of a one-year deal with a mutual option attached for the following season).

Finding middle ground between the Tigers and Skubal in this particular situation may have been unlikely anyway, given how Skubal’s $32MM salary was meant to establish a new precedent for star pitchers (and, arguably all players) in their final year of arbitration eligibility.  Detroit submitted a figure of $19MM, and the arbitration panel ruled in Skubal’s favor, in a very significant win for Skubal, agent Scott Boras, and the MLB players’ union.

As to the larger question of a long-term extension, the lack of fresh talks between the two sides is also perhaps not a surprise.  Boras clients rarely opt for extensions over eventually testing free agency, and an even smaller number of Boras clients sign extensions when they’re this close to the open market.  Assuming Skubal stays healthy and delivers another season akin to his 2024-25 performance, he is expected to command another precedent-setting free agent contract that would make him the highest-paid pitcher in baseball history.

Given the circumstances, the Tigers certainly wouldn’t be getting any kind of hometown discount in extension talks, and if anything would’ve had to pay a premium to convince Skubal to forego free agency.  Faced with this reality, the Tigers may have considered further negotiations about a long-term deal to be somewhat pointless, if the club simply isn’t prepared to pay Skubal a price tag that seems likely to land well north of $350MM.

The Tigers did make Skubal an extension offer last winter, and Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reported in October that this offer was a four-year deal worth less than $100MM that would’ve covered the 2025-28 seasons (Skubal’s final two arbitration-eligible years and his first two free agent years).  For context, Skubal went close to 11 months between MLB starts due to a flexor tendon surgery that sidelined him for parts of the 2022 and 2023 seasons, so it could be that the Tigers were thinking Skubal might jump at some financial security in the wake of a serious injury.  However, given that Skubal looked superb after his return in 2023 and then won the AL Cy Young Award in 2024, Detroit’s offer seemed bafflingly low in both dollars and length.

All signs seem to be pointing to 2026 being Skubal’s final season in Motown, though that doesn’t necessarily mean there are any hard feelings between the player and the team.  It could that the two sides recognize the reality of the situation, and (as Skubal alluded) plan to spend the year aiming towards their shared goal of a World Series championship.  There was some speculation that the Tigers were considering dealing Skubal this offseason, yet that scenario never seemed too likely both due to both Detroit’s big asking price, and the plain fact that a World Series push is easier when arguably baseball’s best pitcher is on your roster.

The Framber Valdez signing indicates that the Tigers are preparing for a post-Skubal rotation, though Valdez’s $115MM free agent deal is only three years long, and contains an opt-out after 2027.  Skubal and Valdez headline what looks like a very solid rotation that also consists of Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize, and Tigers legend Justin Verlander returning to the Motor City to complete the unfinished business of winning a ring in a Tigers uniform.