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Heyman’s Latest: Odor, Baker, Robertson, Bucs, M’s, Alvarez, Marlins, Pagan, Twins, Santana, Gentry

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It usually isn’t a good tactic for free agents to accept the first offer that comes their way, yet this past offseason, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman notes that several players would have been better served by accepting deals before the new collective bargaining agreement was finalized.  Many free agents, particularly sluggers like Mark Trumbo, saw their offers drop after the new CBA was settled in early December, as teams were suddenly more wary about spending in the wake of more punitive luxury tax rules.  Trumbo tells Heyman that he doesn’t regret returning to the Orioles on a three-year, $37.5MM deal, though the implication was that a larger offer was on the table for an undetermined amount.  Reports from earlier this winter indicated that the Orioles themselves initially offered Trumbo a larger deal in the four-year, $52MM range.

Here’s more from Heyman, in his weekly roundup of news and notes from all 30 teams…

  • The Rangers have increased their offer in extension talks with Rougned Odor, though “it isn’t believed to be where the player wants it to be.”  Heyman suggests that Odor’s representation could see Jason Kipnis’ six-year, $52.5MM extension with the Indians “as a baseline,” whereas the last time we heard of talks between the two sides, Texas had offered a deal only “in the range of” the Kipnis deal.  Odor’s team isn’t expected to make a counter offer, so Heyman feels the talks could be tabled altogether.  There isn’t necessarily any rush to get an extension done, as Odor is still under team control for four more years, though he’ll start to get more expensive next winter when he becomes eligible for arbitration.
  • There aren’t any extension talks taking place between Dusty Baker and the Nationals, though the skipper says he “ain’t worried” about the situation.  Baker is only under contract for one more season in Washington, and his first year in D.C. resulted in an NL East title for the Nats.
  • The White Sox are open to any trades, “but at their price,” according to one rival GM.  While this statement is probably generally true for every team, Chicago is known to have a very high price tag on its main trade chips as it looks to rebuild, and the Sox have already landed two big prospect hauls from the Red Sox and Nationals, respectively, in deals for Chris Sale and Adam Eaton.  The Nats and White Sox have also been heavily linked in talks about David Robertson, though a source tells Heyman that it has been “over two months” since the two sides last discussed the closer.
  • The Blue Jays talked to Pedro Alvarez before the slugger re-signed with the Orioles on a minor league deal.  Toronto has switch-hitters Kendrys Morales and Justin Smoak slated for DH and first base, respectively, though Steve Pearce and possibly Jose Bautista will get some time at both positions as well.  Alvarez would have brought some needed left-handed pop to a Jays lineup that is heavy on right-handed bats, and he could’ve also maybe helped out in left field given how Alvarez has been working out as an outfielder this winter.
  • The Pirates and Mariners are considering some bullpen help.
  • The Marlins are open to adding a starting pitcher.  Adam Conley has been struggling this spring, though his issues aside, there certainly seems to be room for improvement within Miami’s projected starting five of Wei-Yin Chen, Edinson Volquez, Conley, Dan Straily and Tom Koehler.
  • Heyman wonders if Angel Pagan could be an option for the Giants given their outfield issues this spring.  Hunter Pence and Denard Span have struggled, while Mike Morse and Mac Williamson are both sidelined with injuries, so an outfielder like Pagan capable of playing all three spots could seem to fit as a depth piece.  Of course, San Francisco is already trying out many of its surplus infield pieces as potential outfielders, and Pagan is still insisting on a a Major League contract.
  • Byron Buxton and Max Kepler appear to be the only true untouchables on the Twins roster as the team continues its rebuilding process.  It’s worth noting that Minnesota only made a couple of minor deals this offseason under the new Derek Falvey/Thad Levine-led front office, despite a lot of rumors surrounding such veterans as Brian Dozier or Ervin Santana.
  • Johan Santana is still hopeful of a comeback, continuing to work out with an eye towards potentially signing with a team for the second half of the season.
  • Craig Gentry, who signed a minor league deal with the Orioles last month, “has impressed Buck Showalter” and is looking in good position to break camp with the team.  The O’s could use platoons in both left and right field, with Hyun Soo Kim and Seth Smith as the left-handed bats and Gentry and Joey Rickard providing the right-handed hitting support.  This could mean that Rule 5 picks Anthony Santander and Aneury Tavarez may end up back with their old clubs, though Santander could be saved on the DL as he recovers from offseason shoulder surgery, as well as elbow and neck issues this spring.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Betts, Leon, Donaldson, Boxberger, Beckham

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In an interesting look inside the Red Sox front office, Tim Britton of the Providence Journal reports on the team’s analytical upgrade efforts. While the organization has long been associated with number-crunching and information hoarding, it has only recently ramped up its full-time staff to launch a new database effort and keep pace with other clubs. It’s an interesting look at the process behind and purposes of the team’s next steps in analytics.

Here’s more from Boston and the rest of the AL East:

  • In a look at Red Sox star Mookie Betts, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe delves into the role of off-field earning opportunities in determining the contractual path of Betts and other young stars. “[Getting endorsements] kind of eliminates things I’ve wondered as far as contracts go and the business part of the game,” says Betts. “[But] everything I can ever desire is going to start from me taking care of business on the field.” Whether that precludes a long-term deal — or, at least, drives up the potential price — remains to be seen.
  • Sandy Leon seems on track to open the season with the lion’s share of the time behind the dish for the Red Sox, skipper John Farrell told reporters including Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald (via Twitter). But the manager made clear that he doesn’t intend to rely too heavily on any one man at the catching position, suggesting it’ll be a fairly evenly shared platoon situation between Leon and Christian Vasquez — at least to start the season.
  • Star Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson took the field in Grapefruit League action for the first time yesterday, as MLB.com’s Paul Hagen writes. All indications were that his calf issue didn’t hold him back, so it seems that Toronto can still look forward to Donaldson’s presence on the Opening Day roster.
  • Rays righty Brad Boxberger isn’t going to be ready for Opening Day, but does hope to be contributing in the majors during the month of April, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. His lat issue will still require at least a week-long layoff before he beings a new throwing program.
  • The career of former top Rays prospect Tim Beckham has continued its roller-coaster path, Topkin writes. After a rough end to 2016, Beckham now seems ascendant yet again, with a strong showing in spring and unexpected opportunity at shortstop with Matt Duffy still on ice. Beckham is drawing rave reviews from manager Kevin Cash and veteran players for his commitment and performance, perhaps suggesting there’s still some hope the 27-year-old can turn the corner at the game’s highest level.

Minor MLB Transactions: 3/22/17

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Here are the latest minor moves from around baseball, with the newest transactions at the top of the post…

  • The Braves released southpaw Matt Marksberry, according to the pitcher himself earlier this week on his Facebook page.  Marksberry posted a 5.06 ERA, 7.8 K/9 and 1.35 K/BB rate over 26 2/3 innings with Atlanta from 2015-16.  He suffered a severe health scare last fall when he was placed in a medically-induced coma following a seizure that caused a collapsed lung, though Marksberry appears to be recovering well from that terrifying situation.
  • The Cardinals signed righty Josh Zeid to a minor league deal, as per Zeid himself via Twitter.  Zeid pitched 48 1/3 innings out of the Astros bullpen in 2013-14, after joining the organization as part of the trade package sent by Philadelphia to Houston for Hunter Pence in July 2011.  Zeid spent 2015 and 2016 in the minors with the Tigers and Mets, respectively, and he most recently pitched for Israel in the World Baseball Classic.
  • Outfielder David Denson announced his retirement from baseball via a message on his Facebook page.  Denson made history in 2015 when he became the first active player in affiliated baseball to publicly announce that he was gay, and he tells Tom Haudricourt and Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that “leaving the game has nothing to do with my coming out.  That wasn’t a factor at all.  This was a decision I made purely from a baseball standpoint.”  Instead, Denson said that he simply lost his passion for playing the game.  Denson was a 15th-round pick of the Brewers in the 2013 draft, and he hit .229/.338/.368 over 1269 career plate appearances, making it to the High-A level in Milwaukee’s farm system.
  • The Blue Jays released outfielder Jacob Anderson, Baseball America’s Matt Eddy reports.  Toronto picked Anderson out of high school with the 35th overall selection of the 2011 draft, though he only made it as high as A-ball in five pro seasons, managing a .204/.271/.302 slash line.

AL East Notes: Britton, Price, Red Sox, Duffy, Pearce

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As a dominant AL East closer that relies on one signature pitch, the Orioles’ Zach Britton has much in common with Mariano Rivera, ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark writes.  Obviously Britton has a ways to go before matching Rivera’s incredible track record, though Britton’s sinker (which he threw 92.2% of the time last season) is already being compared to Rivera’s legendary cut fastball.  Without fully explaining his secrets behind the pitch, Britton tells Stark about what makes his sinker unique, and also how he came upon the pitch by accident while trying to learn, ironically, a cutter.

Here’s more from around the AL East…

  • David Price was re-examined by Red Sox team doctors today and the team reported that the ace lefty “has lost enough strength in his arm to where he is weaker than he was when he reported to Spring Training,” Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald writes.  Price still isn’t on a timetable to begin his throwing program, and thus Silverman speculates that Price’s DL stint could now stretch into May, as opposed to the previous theorized return date of late April.  “You don’t really attach yourself to a calendar. You’ve got to listen to the pitcher’s situation, how his body is responding and what the objective tests are telling us. He’s getting closer to getting a ball back in his hand,” manager John Farrell said.
  • Despite the recent spate of injuries to newly-acquired Red Sox, Dave Dombrowski doesn’t feel the team’s medical evaluation process is at fault, CSNNE.com’s Evan Drellich writes.  “I don’t find anything that’s been abnormal this spring compared to any other spring I’ve ever been,” Dombrowski said.  “We’ve focused a great deal on medical. But we’ve been doing that for years and we continually look at that all the time.”  Price, Drew Pomeranz, Tyler Thornburg, Carson Smith and Hector Velazquez have all dealt with some degree of arm issues with joining the Sox since Dombrowski took over as president of baseball operations, though he argues that acquiring pitching of any type carries inherent risk.  “With the sophistication of the medical industry nowadays, I don’t know the last time I’ve traded for somebody or signed somebody: nobody has a pristine arm,” Dombrowski said.  “Nobody.  I can’t even tell you the last time — it doesn’t exist.  So you’re going to know that that’s just part of the equation.  And then you have to weigh what type of risk you’re willing to take.”
  • It looks like Rays shortstop Matt Duffy will miss Opening Day, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes that the club is still trying to determine a timeline for Duffy’s injury rehab.  Duffy underwent Achilles tendon surgery on his left heel last September, and has been limited to just strengthening exercises and drills this spring, without any running and no baseball activities.  Rays manager Kevin Cash implied that Duffy’s current problems may not be related to his Achilles surgery, which could be a positive in getting him closer to readiness.
  • Steve Pearce declined to tell Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun if the Orioles were in touch about re-signing the veteran utilityman, though he praised the O’s for supporting his decision to undergo elbow surgery late last season when the club was in a pennant race.  Pearce also noted that he decided to sign with the Blue Jays since “they were hard and aggressive” in their pursuit this winter.  “As a player, when you have somebody who wants you that bad and they come after you, they don’t mess around, they’re not trying to low ball — as soon as we got to a number we got comfortable with and they got comfortable with, it was an easy sign,” Pearce said.
  • In other AL East news from earlier today on MLBTR, the Blue Jays are close to a contract extension with manager John Gibbons, the Yankees will be without Didi Gregorius for roughly six weeks due to a shoulder injury and the Rays could still possibly trade a pitcher before Opening Day.

AL East Notes: Thornburg, Donaldson, Travis, Boxberger

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Reliever Tyler Thornburg tops the Red Sox’ list of concerns as the 2017 season approaches, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes. Thornburg has dealt with dead arm for most of Spring Training so far. The Red Sox gave up a fairly hefty package of talent that included infielder Travis Shaw and prospect Mauricio Dubon to get Thornburg, but so far Thornburg’s Red Sox tenure is off to a rough start — he misinterpreted the Red Sox’ prescribed offseason training regimen, according to Cafardo, and now will probably have to start the season on the disabled list. The Red Sox might end up missing longtime late-inning reliever Koji Uehara, who they allowed to depart for the Cubs. Cafardo notes that Thornburg could join a list of Red Sox relief trade acquisitions who disappointed due to injury, including Carson Smith, Joel Hanrahan and Andrew Bailey — although, of course, Hanrahan and Bailey weren’t acquired under the Red Sox’ current front office, and it’s way, way too early to write Thornburg off. Thornburg pitched an apparently successful bullpen session on Saturday. Here’s more from the AL East.

  • Blue Jays slugger Josh Donaldson makes his Spring Training debut today playing DH against Minnesota, John Lott of the Athletic tweets. Donaldson suffered a calf injury near the start of Spring Training and has been out the past month. Donaldson’s return isn’t the only bit of good news for the Jays. Second baseman Devon Travis, who has missed time after having offseason knee surgery, also appears to be returning to health — Lott tweets that Travis expects to make his official spring debut later this week.
  • One player whose injury prognosis isn’t so sunny is Rays reliever Brad Boxberger, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times notes (all Twitter links). Manager Kevin Cash says Boxberger’s lat injury isn’t improving as quickly as the team had anticipated, and that he’s unlikely to be ready for Opening Day. Boxberger struggled with an oblique injury during a poor 2016 season in which he posted a 4.81 ERA, 8.1 K/9 and 7.0 BB/9 in just 24 1/3 innings. His absence could create an opportunity for recent waiver claim Jumbo Diaz, who’s about to return to the Rays after pitching in the World Baseball Classic, according to Topkin.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Pomeranz, McCann, Rays, Odorizzi, Blue Jays

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With Rick Porcello and Chris Sale suddenly looking like the only healthy and reliable members of the Red Sox starting five, Boston’s rotation is “a house of cards,” in the words of CSNNE.com’s Evan Drellich (video link).  Lou Merloni, Jared Carrabis, and Drellich discuss Boston’s lack of pitching depth in the wake of David Price’s season-opening DL stint and Drew Pomeranz having to leave an outing today due to left triceps tightness.  The controversial circumstances of the Red Sox/Padres deal that brought Pomeranz to Boston last season are also revisited, with Carrabis noting that “the trade looks like it keeps getting worse every single day” from the Sox perspective given Pomeranz’s ongoing injury problems.

Here’s more from around the AL East…

  • Brian McCann has nothing but fond memories of his time with the Yankees, though he told Randy Miller of NJ Advance Media that being traded to the Astros represents “a best-case scenario for both sides.”  McCann was willing to waive his no-trade protection in order to join “a team filled with talent…young talent that’s going to be together for a while” that would allow him to regularly catch, while the Yankees were clearly going with Gary Sanchez as the catcher of both the future and the present.  “You’ve got to see what you have, and what they have is a very talented catcher that is going to be there for a long time,” McCann said, noting that he himself displaced a veteran catcher (Johnny Estrada) when he first broke into the bigs as a rookie with the Braves in 2005.
  • Players face a big decision when presented with the opportunity to sign an early-career extension, as Evan Longoria and Jake Odorizzi of the Rays tell Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.  Longoria’s first extension with the Rays (a six-year, $17.5MM deal signed just a week into his big league career) drew some criticism at the time, though Longoria saw it as a chance to “have this security for myself and my family and just play and relax.”
  • Odorizzi, meanwhile, passed on a discussed extension with the Rays two offseasons ago.  Topkin reports that the proposed extension would have been a six-year deal worth close to $30MM in guaranteed money, with over $20MM more available via two additional club option years.  Such a deal would’ve covered at least two of Odorizzi’s free agent seasons and potentially kept him under team control through his age-33 season.  Odorizzi doesn’t regret turning down the extension, saying “sometimes it boils down to, and I hate to say it, but the dollar amount.  We all know the money in this game and the value of players and what your value is.  And sometimes it just doesn’t match up.  That’s just the circumstances.”
  • The Blue Jays hope to gain a competitive advantage with their high performance department, as Sportsnet.ca’s Arden Zwelling takes a look inside the all-encompassing plan dedicated to keeping players physically and mentally prepared year-round.  Club president Mark Shapiro hired sports psychologist Angus Mugford last year to create the high performance department, which has now grown into a 43-person staff consisting of fitness trainers, dieticians, mental coaches, and more.  The department’s focus on each player’s individual status helped the Jays decide to keep Aaron Sanchez in the rotation last season, as since Sanchez had so diligently been keeping himself in good condition, there was less fear that he would wear down after throwing so many innings.

Offseason In Review: Toronto Blue Jays

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series.

The Blue Jays added several veteran reinforcements to their roster and brought back franchise icon Jose Bautista, though the loss of Edwin Encarnacion may linger as a “what-if” scenario for years to come.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Toronto Blue Jays Depth Chart; Blue Jays Payroll Overview

Needs Addressed

When Encarnacion didn’t quickly accept the Blue Jays’ early offer of a four-year, $80MM contract, Toronto moved right on to its Plan B in another experienced slugger in Kendrys Morales.  While Morales’ numbers over the last five years don’t match Encarnacion for either consistency or sheer production, the switch-hitter has still produced above-average offensive numbers for much of his career, and is just a season removed from a .290/.362/.485 line with the world champion Royals in 2015.  Last year, Morales got off to a very slow start in the first two months before heating up to the tune of an .888 OPS over 423 PA from June 1 onward.  Interestingly, Jays GM Ross Atkins suggested that Morales could see a “good deal” of action as a first baseman, though since Morales has played just 16 games at first since the start of the 2015 season, one would suspect Morales will fill more of a primary DH role.

Adding more versatility to the lineup is Steve Pearce, signed to a two-year deal despite undergoing elbow surgery last September.  (Pearce has been limited to DH duty thus far in Spring Training but otherwise looks to be in fine condition.)  Pearce appears to be the Jays’ first choice in left field, though he has also seen time in right, first base and even second base in recent years.

While he has been particularly good against southpaws, Pearce has an overall .266/.348/.485 slash line from 2013-16, making him a solid choice as an everyday player whenever Toronto decides to use him.  Against left-handed pitching, Pearce could play first with Melvin Upton or Ezequiel Carrera handling left field.  With a righty on the mound, Pearce could play left while Justin Smoak starts at first.  Pearce could also spell Bautista in right field on occasion, or serve as a stopgap at second base if Devon Travis’ availability for Opening Day is still in doubt.

Jose Bautista (vertical)Bautista didn’t enter free agency on a high note, as he was limited to just 116 games due to injuries during his age-35 campaign.  It also didn’t help Bautista that the market for free agent hitters in general was rather a cool one this year, and while a number of teams (such as the Indians, Phillies and Orioles) were speculatively linked as interested candidates for a signing, a lack of concrete interest allowed the Jays to re-emerge as suitors in late December.

Though one mystery team reportedly offered Bautista a three-year deal worth more than $50MM, he instead rejoined the Jays for $18.5MM and just one guaranteed year.  One would think that a vintage Bautista season in 2017 will lead the slugger to decline his end of a 2018 mutual option in search of a bigger multi-year contract without the anchor of the qualifying offer weighing down his market.  If that ends up being the case, the Jays couldn’t really complain about getting one final outstanding year from one of the franchise’s greatest hitters, even if they’re no longer in line for draft compensation.

Re-signing Bautista allows the Jays to fill a need in right field, with the hope that a season of better health will allow him to provide better defense.  Bautista still hit .234/.366/.452 with 22 homers despite his injury woes last year, though Toronto will be hoping for more production to help make up for Encarnacion’s departure.

The Jays replaced free agents Brett Cecil and Joaquin Benoit in their bullpen by signing another pair of veterans in lefty J.P. Howell and right-hander Joe Smith.  Before signing Howell, Toronto also considered other southpaws such as Jerry Blevins and Boone Logan.  The Blue Jays did consider making a bigger expenditure on their pen, as the team had some talks with the White Sox about David Robertson.

After parting ways with Josh Thole and Dioner Navarro, the Jays addressed their backup catching needs by signing veteran Jarrod Saltalamacchia to a minor league contract.  “Salty” is the favorite to serve as Russell Martin’s understudy, while the Blue Jays made some other minor acquisitions (i.e. Juan Graterol, Mike Ohlman) to build catching depth.

On the international signing front, Toronto made a splash by signing highly-regarded Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to a seven-year, $22MM deal.  The 23-year-old Gurriel hails from one of Cuba’s most respected baseball families (his father is one of Cuba’s greatest players and his older brother Yulieski plays for the Astros) and could potentially line up at several different positions around the diamond.  Gurriel is probably at least a year away from the big leagues but he stands out as an intriguing building block for the future.

Questions Remaining

Going into the offseason, there was significant doubt as to whether the Jays could re-sign either Bautista or Encarnacion, and a reunion with both seemed totally out of the question.  It seemed like the Jays themselves believed the latter scenario was true, as once Encarnacion rejected that initial offer, the team jumped to sign Morales to fill Encarnacion’s role.  As the winter went on, however, the expected frenzy for Encarnacion’s service never materialized, as the first baseman signed a three-year, $60MM deal (with a $20MM club option year) with the Indians that fell below all industry projections.

Had the Jays held off on Morales and waited perhaps just a few more weeks before re-engaging Encarnacion and agent Paul Kinzer, it’s possible Encarnacion could have ended up back in Toronto at a relative discount price.  Instead, the Jays spent $33MM on Morales (who’s only a few months younger than Encarnacion and an inferior batter with no defensive value) and $18.5MM on Bautista, who certainly wouldn’t be the first star hitter to hit a sudden decline in his late 30’s.

Given the slow-moving market for all the first base/DH types on the market, Morales himself might well have still been available at a lower price tag had the Jays not been in such a rush.  If not Morales, then a scenario certainly exists where the Blue Jays would’ve indeed managed to get the band back together by re-signing both Encarnacion and Bautista.

The Jays headed into the winter with a lineup lacking in athleticism and left-handed hitters, and those issues are still on the books as Opening Day approaches.  “Any organization would be looking to create more balance, more platoon effect and potentially more speed.  But it’s just not as easy as deciding to do that and making that happen,” Atkins said during an end-of-the-season talk with reporters.

Indeed, the Jays’ main three position-player acquisitions don’t really check any of the boxes on Atkins’ general offseason wish list.  Bautista and Pearce are both right-handed bats, while the switch-hitting Morales has better career splits as a left-handed hitter over his career but has posted a better OPS from the right side of the plate in three of the last four seasons.  While Pearce can play multiple positions, Morales is more or less a full-time DH and Bautista’s declining defensive numbers of the last two years argue that he too is best deployed as DH or first baseman at this point rather than as a regular right fielder.  Morales taking the bulk of DH at-bats also means a loss of lineup flexibility — there is now less opportunity to give Martin, Troy Tulowitzki, or Josh Donaldson a break from playing the field while still keeping their bats in the lineup.

The Jays at least checked in on a wide range of players (such as Dexter Fowler, Carlos Beltran, Andrew McCutchen, Charlie Blackmon, Josh Reddick, Matt Wieters, Ian Desmond, Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce, Sean Rodriguez and their own free agent Michael Saunders) who could’ve potentially been better fits from either a versatility standpoint or by adding more left-handed balance.  Signing the likes of Fowler or Desmond would’ve cost Toronto a first-round draft pick since both players rejected qualifying offers, though one could argue the Jays essentially surrendered a first-rounder anyway by re-signing Bautista, who also rejected a QO.

Atkins has stated that his “best-case scenario” is to have Pearce as the regular left fielder and Smoak as the regular first baseman.  Counting on Pearce for regular outfield duty on the Rogers Centre’s artificial surface is optimistic enough, as beyond his elbow surgery, Pearce has also hit the DL with oblique, hamstring and wrist injuries in the last four seasons.  Believing that Smoak is a late bloomer who can go from being a virtual replacement player (0.3 fWAR in his seven big league seasons) into a viable everyday option at age 30 is perhaps even more questionable.

It remains to be seen if Morales can handle enough first base time to at least spell Smoak against left-handed pitching.  If not, and Pearce or Bautista need to step in at the position, that opens up left or right field for an outfield mix that includes Upton, Carrera, Dalton Pompey, and Darrell Ceciliani.  Until Pearce is fully able to play, at least, the plan for left field appears to be an Upton/Carrera platoon (though the Jays are reportedly also looking around for outfield help).

Upton was a big disappointment after joining the Jays at the trade deadline, and, aside from a brief resurgence with the Padres, has been a below-average offensive producer in three of the last four seasons.  Carrera is a rare left-handed bat on the roster but his career numbers are actually better against southpaws than righties.

Ceciliani is another lefty bat who owns more traditional splits, though he also hasn’t shown much at the MLB level.  The switch-hitting Pompey is still an unknown quantity after struggling badly early in the 2015 season and being limited to mostly pinch-running duty in his subsequent time in the majors.  He is also currently being held out of action after suffering a concussion during the World Baseball Classic.

Still, hoping on unproven commodities like Pompey, Ceciliani, or first base prospect Rowdy Tellez underscores the lack of left-handed hitting options on Toronto’s roster.  Against a right-handed starter, the Jays’ lineup could feature just Morales, Smoak (a modest career .720 OPS against righties) and perhaps the switch-hitting Saltalamacchia as options from the left side, if Martin is on a rest day.  Signing a veteran outfield option like Angel Pagan would be an upgrade, though the Blue Jays are apparently unlikely to land Pagan.

Travis’ lingering injury problems create another potential issue at second base.  For the short term, the Jays could platoon Darwin Barney and Ryan Goins at the keystone, a scenario that would help the team keep the out-of-option Goins on the roster.  Pearce could play second in a pinch if Travis faced a lengthy DL stint, though it would seem almost a waste of Pearce’s versatility to lock him into his least-ideal position, not to mention the fact that using Pearce at second would also weaken left field and first base.

There were rumors earlier this winter that the Blue Jays would explore stretching Joe Biagini out as a starting pitcher so that the righty could go from being an unexpected bullpen breakout star to rotation depth.  The latest word, however, is that Biagini will remain in the relief corps, so the Jays are still thin on depth beyond their solid starting five of Aaron Sanchez, Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ, Marcus Stroman and Francisco Liriano.  Mike Bolsinger could fill a long relief or swingman role, with MLB veterans Mat Latos and Lucas Harrell also in camp on minor league deals and Gavin Floyd also back on a minors contract as he looks to rebound from another injury-plagued season.

Deal Of Note

This section actually addresses multiple deals of note — namely the one-year, $3MM contracts the Jays handed to Howell and Smith, plus the one-year, $7.5MM contract Benoit signed with the Phillies and the whopping four-year, $30.5MM deal Cecil landed from the Cardinals.

J.P. Howell

Toronto took a slow-play approach to its bullpen needs, which ended up being a shrewd tactic given the early explosion in relief prices.  Beyond the huge contracts given to star closers Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon, you also saw the likes of Cecil, Mike Dunn, Brad Ziegler, Junichi Tazawa, Daniel Hudson and Marc Rzepczynski land multi-year commitments before the end of December.  The market slowed considerably as the winter went on, and thus the Jays landed both Howell and Smith for less than the Phils paid Benoit, let alone the massive outlay that would’ve been required to re-sign Cecil.

Obviously, several factors beyond just asking prices went into these signings (age, various teams’ particular preferences, etc.), including the fact that Howell and Smith are both coming off relative down years by their standards.  Cecil and Benoit were both better pitchers in 2016 than Howell and Smith, though the gap in performance doesn’t equal the $9MM gap in salaries the two pairs will earn in 2017.  Given Benoit’s age (39), Cecil’s rather inconsistent performance last season and the general inherent risk of paying significant money for relief pitching, one could argue the Blue Jays positioned themselves to get more bang for their buck in waiting out the market to sign Howell and Smith in February.

Overview

For the second straight offseason under Atkins and club president Mark Shapiro, the Blue Jays relied more on modest free agent signings rather than trades to upgrade the roster.  (In fact, Toronto was the only team that didn’t swing a single trade all winter.)  The Jays clearly didn’t want to surrender what it would’ve taken to acquire the likes of McCutchen, Blackmon or Granderson, be it prospects or young talent on the MLB roster.  Likewise, Atkins and Shapiro preferred to spread the Jays’ cash around rather than focus the spending on one big signing like Fowler, or what they thought it would’ve taken to re-sign Encarnacion.

Two winters of free agent acquisitions, even on non-blockbuster signings, add up; the Jays’ estimated payroll of over $162.6MM for 2017 will be the largest in franchise history.  With this big payroll in mind and the fact that the Jays focused their attention on veteran signings, the club is clearly still in win-now mode after consecutive trips to the ALCS.  For a team that has championship aspirations, however, the Jays are taking risks both in their lack of depth, and in apparently counting on underachieving players (i.e. Smoak, Upton, Carrera) to play notable roles.  There isn’t much margin for error on this roster if, say, Bautista doesn’t have a bounce-back year, or if an unexpected injury fells a cornerstone player like Donaldson.

Still, with some good minor leaguers in the system, the Jays are leaving themselves room for improvement if they need to make a trade or two at the deadline.  There’s also the possibility that the front office felt it didn’t need to make many changes to what is already a contending team, and that the combined contributions of Morales, Pearce and a revived Bautista will make up for the losses of Encarnacion and (to a lesser extent) Saunders.

What’s your take on the Blue Jays’ winter?  (Link for app users.)

How would you grade the Blue Jays offseason?
C 44.35% (1,562 votes)
B 35.52% (1,251 votes)
D 11.64% (410 votes)
F 5.00% (176 votes)
A 3.49% (123 votes)
Total Votes: 3,522

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Olney’s Latest: Machado, Harper, Tigers, Jays, Giants

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Given that Orioles third baseman Manny Machado and Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper are scheduled to reach free agency after the 2018 season, high-payroll teams will spend the next two years deciding the more worthy target, writes Buster Olney of ESPN.com. With that in mind, Olney polled seven evaluators on which potential $400MM player they’d prefer to sign. Six chose Machado, whom the evaluators regard as a more well-rounded player. “Harper gets credit and gets a huge part of his reputation for how far he hits home runs, but they still only count for one run,” one evaluator told Olney. “Machado is an entire field hitter who hits to the situation. He can hammer majestic homers, but can also do other things to help a team win.”

More from Olney:

  • If the Tigers don’t begin the season well, there’s a sense around the majors that they could consider moving the likes of second baseman Ian Kinsler and outfielder J.D. Martinez. Both veterans came up in offseason trade rumors and aren’t under team control for much longer. The 34-year-old Kinsler is controllable for the next two seasons at $21MM, including a $10MM option for 2018. Martinez, 30 in August, will make $11.75MM this year and then become a free agent during the winter. Notably, the slugger suffered a foot injury Saturday and will undergo an MRI on Sunday.
  • The Blue Jays “are said to be” in the market for outfield help, per Olney. Toronto is set in center (Kevin Pillar) and right (Jose Bautista), but left is questionable with Steve Pearce, Melvin Upton Jr., Ezequiel Carrera and Dalton Pompey as its in-house options.  The top free agent outfielder left on the board is Angel Pagan, whom the Jays are reportedly unlikely to sign. They do have interest in free agent utilityman Kelly Johnson, though he’s primarily an infielder.
  • Free agent catcher Derek Norris has a reputation of “sometimes clashing with pitchers,” according to Olney, who notes the 28-year-old will have to overcome that as he searches for his next employer. There are reportedly “about a half-dozen teams” interested in Norris, whom the Nationals released this week after they weren’t able to find a taker in a trade. An acquiring club would have had to take on his $4.2MM salary, of course, whereas signing him should come at a cheaper price.
  • There’s concern in Giants camp regarding the play of center fielder Denard Span, who’s not hitting or, to some evaluators, moving well. The 33-year-old fared decently at the plate in 2016 (.266/.331/.381 in 637 trips); however, he’s coming off back-to-back subpar campaigns in the field, during which he combined for minus-17 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-13 Ultimate Zone Rating. The Giants owe Span $22MM over the next three years, including a $4MM buyout for 2019.

Quick Hits: Free Agents, Johnson, Braves, Blue Jays, Reds, Shaffer

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Just over a year removed from the 2015-16 offseason, nine of the top ten contracts handed out last winter are already looking problematic, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes.  Only Johnny Cueto turned in a vintage season in the wake of signing his pricey deal with the Giants last winter, while the other nine (David Price, Zack Greinke, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Jordan Zimmermann, Jeff Samardzija, Wei-Yin Chen and Mike Leake) ranged from slight to complete disappointments in their first seasons with their new teams.  Injuries played a role in several of these down years, which is perhaps even more ominous for the teams that have tens of millions in remaining commitments to these players.  While this winter’s free agent market wasn’t as star-studded as the last, the lack of early returns on many of the 2015-16 investments could be another reason — beyond the new CBA, luxury tax concerns or a simple lack of elite talent — that teams were far more reluctant to spend over the last few months.

Some more from around the baseball world…

  • Kelly Johnson has received interest from the Blue Jays, Braves and Reds about a minor league deal and non-roster invite to Spring Training, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link).  Johnson, however, is still holding out in the hopes of landing a Major League contract.  Atlanta’s interest in a reunion with Johnson has been well-documented, though Cincinnati and Toronto are new names as suitors.  The veteran utilityman would fit as a needed left-handed bat and versatile bench piece for both the Reds and Jays.
  • The Reds also have Ryan Raburn and Desmond Jennings in camp on minor league contracts, and their track records mean more to manager Bryan Price than their Spring Training performance necessarily does, the manager tells MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon and other media.  “Hopefully with the Raburn, Jennings group of experience and even [Hernan] Iribarren with his background, you want to have at least one of those guys if not two of them on the club to lend that experience,” Price said.  The skipper’s further comments about valuing experience and versatility could be another hint as Cincinnati’s interest in Johnson, though that’s just my speculation.
  • After a wild offseason that saw Richie Shaffer become property of five different teams, he may now be emerging as a candidate for the Indians’ Opening Day roster, MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian writes.  Shaffer is hitting very well in spring action and his ability to play first base, third base and both corner outfield slots serves him well on a Cleveland team that is looking for flexibility with Jason Kipnis and Michael Brantley both facing DL stints to start the season.
  • Then again, it’s pretty rare for a player to win an Opening Day job with a big spring unless he’s already in a general manager’s plans, ESPN’s Jim Bowden writes (subscription required).  As GMs Dayton Moore, Jerry Dipoto and Thad Levine all tell Bowden, teams tend to have a set timeline for their minor leaguers and many non-roster invitee veterans are around to provide depth.  “Intuitively, we know that 10-15 innings pitched or 40-50 plate appearances do not represent a significant amount of performance from which we should make meaningful changes,” Levine explained.  “That being said, when a player’s performance is married with work ethic, character and a clear sense that he will enhance the team’s chemistry, the temptation to alter plans becomes real.”

East Notes: Blue Jays, Mets, Marlins, Yankees

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Agent Scott Boras is unhappy with the Blue Jays for not awarding pre-arb right-hander Aaron Sanchez a higher salary for 2017, but the star hurler doesn’t seem fazed. Sanchez told Paul Hagen of MLB.com he “absolutely” believes Blue Jays management values him, adding: “We just had a disagreement, and I want to leave it at that. There are no hard feelings between [general manager Ross Atkins] and I, between me and this organization. It’s time to go play baseball, really. All that other stuff isn’t relevant to me.” With his first trip through arbitration a year away, Sanchez, 24, will try to build on a sterling 2016 campaign in which he posted a 3.00 ERA, 7.55 K/9, 2.95 BB/9 and 54.4 percent ground-ball rate over 192 innings.

More from the East Coast:

  • Major League Baseball has spent the past four-plus months investigating domestic violence allegations against Mets closer Jeurys Familia, but it appears he’ll escape serious punishment from commissioner Rob Manfred. While Manfred will hand Familia a suspension, the ban won’t be “very long,” reports FanRag’s Jon Heyman. That could rule out a potential 30- to 50-game suspension for Familia.
  • Mets infielder Wilmer Flores isn’t pleased with his role as a part-time player, writes Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News. Even if injured third baseman David Wright misses regular-season time, the Mets will still have a full complement of infielders in Lucas Duda, Neil Walker, Asdrubal Cabrera and Jose Reyes. With those four on hand, the right-handed-hitting Flores is unlikely to play much against same-handed pitchers. “I’ve been comfortable (against right handers) since I started playing baseball,” Flores said. “I got a lot of opportunities against lefties (last year), but against righties, I feel really good.” Flores hasn’t made a strong case to face righties, having hit just .253/.287/.374 against them in 905 career plate appearances. Regarding Flores’ dissatisfaction, manager Terry Collins told Ackert: “The one thing about his situation is you don’t have to like it. You just have to accept it and be ready to play.”
  • Marlins third baseman Martin Prado will undergo an MRI on Saturday after injuring his hamstring during Venezuela’s loss to the American team in the World Baseball Classic on Wednesday, per Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. “Hamstrings take a little bit of time, and we’ll let the doctors determine what grade it is and see what we’re going to have to do,” said manager Don Mattingly. Should Prado miss regular-season action, it’s likely the Marlins would give the lion’s share of playing time at third to Derek Dietrich, who enjoyed a career year in 2016 while primarily filling in at second for the suspended Dee Gordon. An injury to the productive Prado obviously isn’t ideal, though, especially considering he’s entering the first season of a three-year, $40MM contract.
  • A poor 2016 spent with the Pirates and Mets forced now-Yankees southpaw Jon Niese to settle for a minor league contract during the offseason, leading the 30-year-old to tell Ken Davidoff of the New York Post: “It’s a tough business to be in, but at the same time, it gave me this opportunity here with the Yankees. I can’t totally be down on myself about it. I’m looking forward to embracing this bullpen role. Hopefully it can springboard my career.” Niese had been a quality starter from 2011-15, but he’d only crack the Yankees’ roster as a reliever. His new role comes with a different mindset. “Basically, I’m just treating those three outs as a game,” he added.
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