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Braves Rumors

Injury Notes: Wainwright, Jackson, Zuber

By Darragh McDonald | October 13, 2022 at 3:03pm CDT

Cardinals right-hander Adam Wainwright had a 3.09 ERA through the end of August this year but then posted a 7.22 mark over the final few weeks of the season. Given that he turned 41 years old in between those two samples, some might have wondered if the veteran had merely run out of gas.

However, that wasn’t actually the case, at least according to the man himself. Wainwright logged into Twitter yesterday, acknowledging that he didn’t perform up to his own standards down the stretch and attempting to offer an explanation. The way he tells it, he was hit on the knee by a comebacker in his August 28 start against Atlanta. This affected the length of his stride, which he didn’t notice for some time, leading to domino effects in his delivery. He believes that the issues were eventually fixed but that the season ended before he got a chance to get back into proper form.

Despite the poor finish, Wainwright still posted a 3.71 ERA in 2022, making 32 starts and throwing 191 2/3 innings. Given that his Cardinal teammates Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols already announced their intention to retire after this year, many have wondered if Wainwright would join them in heading into the sunset. But he’s shown he can still be effective at the big league level and could surely get another shot in 2023 if he wants one. If he has made a decision in that regard, he hasn’t yet gone public with it.

Wainwright made his MLB debut with the Cards in 2005 and has been with them his entire big league career. In 2013, he and the club signed a five-year extension that went through the 2018 campaign. Since then, he and the team have effectively gone year to year, signing one-year deals for the past four seasons. He made $17.5MM this year on the heels of an excellent 2021 campaign that he didn’t quite match. He might have to settle for a slight pay cut to return next year, though he and the club have always been able to work out deals that work for both sides.

Jose Quintana is also heading for free agency, leaving the Cards with an on-paper rotation of Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, Steven Matz, Jordan Montgomery and Dakota Hudson. Matz and Flaherty both had injury-plagued seasons and Hudson struggled enough that he got optioned to the minors down the stretch. Given those question marks, reuniting for another spin with Wainwright would make sense for the team, as long as that’s something he wants.

Other injury notes from around the league…

  • Braves right-hander Luke Jackson has missed this entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in April. He seems to be on track for a return at some point next year, as the hurler himself took to Twitter to announce that he has started throwing. Now 31, Jackson had a tremendous breakout season in 2021. He threw 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, much better than his 4.24 career mark. There might have been a bit of good luck in there, as opponents hit just .253 on balls in play against Jackson after posting marks at .311 or above in each of the previous five seasons. Nonetheless, he did post strong ground ball and strikeout rates of 52.5% and 26.8%, respectively, alongside a high walk rate of 11.1%. This was his final year of club control, meaning he’ll be heading into the open market in a few weeks. Given his ongoing recovery, he will likely have to hold a showcase for teams at some point in order to showcase his readiness for 2023.
  • Royals righty Tyler Zuber missed the entirety of the 2022 season, landing on the IL in March due to a shoulder impingement and never returning. He appears to be healthy again after tweeting video of himself throwing yesterday. The 27-year-old has yet to find success at the big league level, pitching to a 5.29 ERA in 49 1/3 career innings, though he’s shown more potential in the minors. In 28 2/3 frames at Triple-A in 2021, he posted a 2.83 ERA along with a 37.1% strikeout rate and 40.4% ground ball rate. That also came with a concerning 13.8% walk rate, though he showed an ability to be effective despite that. By sitting on the 60-day IL all season, he’s earned a full year of MLB service time in 2022, though he still won’t reach arbitration eligibility this winter.
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Atlanta Braves Kansas City Royals St. Louis Cardinals Adam Wainwright Luke Jackson Tyler Zuber

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White Sox Interview Joe Espada In Managerial Search

By Anthony Franco | October 12, 2022 at 9:08pm CDT

The White Sox interviewed Astros bench coach Joe Espada today as part of their managerial search, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). Chicago has also reached out to Braves third base coach Ron Washington, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN (on Twitter). It isn’t clear whether Washington plans to interview.

Espada becomes the second known candidate to sit down with Chicago. ESPN’s Enrique Rojas reported last week that Royals bench coach Pedro Grifol also had an interview set up with the Sox at some point. Both Espada and Grifol also interviewed for the Marlins vacancy this week, and the latter is a candidate to assume Kansas City’s vacant managerial position as well.

The 47-year-old Espada has never managed in the majors, but he’s certainly drawn a fair bit of interest on that front. The Puerto Rico native was reportedly a finalist in the Mets search that eventually led to Buck Showalter last winter, and he’s gotten past looks from the A’s, Giants, Cubs and Twins, among others. While he’s not gotten a managerial nod, Espada has held the bench coach role for a number of excellent Houston teams going back to 2018. He’s worked under both A.J. Hinch and Dusty Baker, demonstrating the value multiple skippers have placed on his input.

Over the weekend, Bob Nightengale of USA Today wrote that the Sox preferred to hire a veteran manager to replace Tony La Russa. The interviews with Grifol and Espada suggest they’re not ruling out first-time candidates early in the process, at least. Still, it’s notable that Washington does have a fair bit of experience in the role. He managed the Rangers between 2007-14, leading Texas to back-to-back AL pennants in 2011-12. The 70-year-old has spent the past six seasons on the Atlanta staff as Brian Snitker’s third base coach.

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Tyler Matzek To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

By Steve Adams and Darragh McDonald | October 12, 2022 at 12:25pm CDT

Braves left-hander Tyler Matzek, who was left off the NLDS roster due to elbow discomfort, is undergoing Tommy John surgery today, manager Brian Snitker announced to reporters (Twitter link via Jeff Schultz of The Athletic). Given the timing of the surgery, Matzek will likely miss the entire 2023 season as well.

There’s never really a good time for a baseball player to undergo go Tommy John and then have to spend 12-18 months recovering, but the timing here is especially unfortunate for both Matzek and the team. After winning a fifth-straight NL East crown, the club just began its postseason run yesterday, leaving Matzek off the roster. Now that the prognosis is known, Matzek can be ruled out of the entire playoff run and then some.

2022 was his third season with Atlanta after a lengthy absence due to “the yips.” He pitched for the Rockies in 2014 and 2015 but then dealt with control problems so bad that he was relegated to the minors for chunks of the 2016-2019 period, including missing the 2017 season entirely and pitching in indy ball in 2018. He eventually made his way back to the majors and established himself as a useful piece of the Atlanta bullpen. From 2020 to the present, he’s thrown 135 2/3 innings with a 2.92 ERA, 38.2% ground ball rate and 27.4% strikeout rate, despite a high 13.4% walk rate.

In addition to that strong work in the regular season, Matzek has shown a knack for taking things up a notch in the playoffs. In 2020, he threw 8 2/3 innings with a 1.04 ERA and followed that up with a 1.72 mark in 15 2/3 frames last year, playing a big role in helping Atlanta grab their first World Series title since 1995. Unfortunately, he won’t get a chance to build on his track record of postseason heroics here in 2022. Without Matzek, the club will charge ahead in their attempt to repeat as champions with A.J. Minter and Dylan Lee as their only lefty relievers.

Looking ahead to next year, Matzek, who turns 32 next week, is eligible for arbitration again after earning $1.4MM here in 2022. He will be due a raise for 2023, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting his salary to come in around $1.8MM. The team could consider not tendering Matzek a contract since he likely won’t be able to contribute at all in 2023. However, if they did tender him a contract, they would still be able to control him for 2024. Since Matzek will likely miss the entire season, he wouldn’t be able to push his 2024 salary much beyond his 2023 number, if at all. Players who are free agents but about to embark on a significant absence will often sign two-year deals with the signing club aware they won’t see a return on their investment until the second half of the deal, and Matzek’s final two arb years could effectively function in that way if the Atlanta front office considers him worth the gamble.

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Atlanta Braves Newsstand Tyler Matzek

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Braves Announce NLDS Roster

By Darragh McDonald | October 11, 2022 at 9:30am CDT

Although the Mets were atop the NL East for the vast majority of the season, Atlanta charged hard down the stretch and surged past them (via a tiebreaker). They earned their fifth consecutive division crown and also earned a bye past the Wild Card round under this year’s new expanded playoff format. They will now square off against a divisional rival, facing the Phillies in the NLDS. The roster for the series is as follows…

Right-Handed Pitchers

  • Jesse Chavez
  • Raisel Iglesias
  • Kenley Jansen
  • Collin McHugh
  • Charlie Morton
  • Jake Odorizzi
  • Jackson Stephens
  • Spencer Strider
  • Kyle Wright

Left-Handed Pitchers

  • Max Fried (Game 1 starter)
  • Dylan Lee
  • A.J. Minter

Catchers

  • William Contreras
  • Travis d’Arnaud

Infielders

  • Ehire Adrianza
  • Orlando Arcia
  • Vaughn Grissom
  • Matt Olson
  • Austin Riley
  • Dansby Swanson

Outfielders

  • Ronald Acuña Jr.
  • Robbie Grossman
  • Michael Harris II
  • Guillermo Heredia
  • Marcell Ozuna
  • Eddie Rosario

The most notable name on the list is Strider, as his status was uncertain for the series. His last appearance was September 18, after which he went on the injured list due to a left oblique strain. It seems there’s a chance he could return in the next week, based on his placement on this roster. Jeff Schultz of The Athletic relays word from manager Brian Snitker that the club hasn’t yet decided on a Game 3 starter, with Strider and Morton both under consideration. Yesterday, Mark Bowman of MLB.com said that the club was leaning towards Wright for Game 2.

Prior to landing on the injured list, Strider was enjoying a spectacular rookie season. He started in the bullpen but eventually made his way into the rotation and dominated the whole way. He threw 131 2/3 innings with a 2.67 ERA, 40.3% ground ball rate, 8.5% walk rate and an absurd 38.3% strikeout rate. The club was so impressed that they gave him a six-year, $75MM extension, announced just yesterday.

What role he can play in this series is something that is still to be determined. He is throwing a bullpen today and won’t be an option for relief work in Game 1, per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. How his body responds to today’s session will likely determine how the club proceeds with regards to Strider’s workload.

As for who is not on the list, the most noteworthy omission is that of Tyler Matzek. Toscano relays that Matzek felt some elbow discomfort recently and is being evaluated in Texas. The southpaw was a key component of the club’s World Series run last year, throwing 15 2/3 innings in the postseason with a 1.72 ERA. In the regular season this year, he posted a 3.50 ERA over 43 2/3 innings. The fact that he’s been left off this roster suggests the club isn’t expecting him back in short order, though he could return to the club down the line if he gets good news in Texas and the club stays alive.

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Atlanta Braves Spencer Strider Tyler Matzek

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Braves Extend Spencer Strider

By Steve Adams | October 10, 2022 at 11:03pm CDT

The Braves have extended yet another key member of their impressive young core, this time announcing a six-year, $75MM contract for right-hander Spencer Strider. The contract, which covers the 2023-28 seasons, also contains a $22MM club option for the 2029 season. The six-year guarantee buys out Strider’s final two pre-arbitration seasons, all three arbitration years and what would have been his first free-agent season. The 2029 club option gives the Braves control over what would’ve been Strider’s second free-agent campaign. Strider is represented by Frontline.

Spencer Strider

Strider, 24 later this month, will earn $1MM both in 2023 and 2024. He’ll be paid a $4MM salary in 2025 before jumping to $20MM in 2026 and $22MM in 2027 and 2028. The 2029 option comes with a $5MM buyout, which is factored into the guaranteed portion of the contract. If the Braves pick up that net $17MM option for the ’29 campaign, Strider will earn a total of $92MM over seven years.

Strider becomes the fourth young Braves star to be extended this season alone, joining first baseman Matt Olson (eight years, $168MM), center fielder Michael Harris II (eight years, $72MM) and star third baseman Austin Riley (ten years, $212MM). Atlanta, of course, had previously already signed outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. and second baseman Ozzie Albies to club-friendly extensions. All six of those players are now under club control through at least the 2027 season, giving the Braves a level of continuity and cost certainty that is unparalleled throughout the league.

A fourth-round gem in the extremely truncated 2020 draft (five rounds), Strider skyrocketed through the Braves’ system despite a lack of minor league games in 2020, ultimately making his Major League debut late in the 2021 season. The Clemson product cracked the Braves’ Opening Day roster in 2022, initially working multi-inning stints out of the bullpen before ascending to the starting staff, where he not only found success but emerged as a bona fide front-of-the-rotation arm.

Overall, Strider broke out with 131 2/3 innings of 2.67 ERA ball and a 38.3% strikeout rate that paced all big leaguers who pitched at least 100 innings. Command was an issue at times in the minors and early in the season, but Strider markedly scaled back on the number of free passes he yielded as the season wore on, finishing out the year with an 8.5% walk rate that was scarcely north of the league average. For someone who walked 13.5% of his opponents over the first two months of the season, the improvement was as remarkable as it was rapid; from June 10 onward, Strider walked just 6.8% of his opponents.

Strider’s dominance has positioned him as one of the two favorites for National League Rookie of the Year honors, as he and teammate Harris are widely viewed as the presumptive first- and second-place finishers in an extremely strong year for rookies (both in the NL and in MLB as a whole).

The $75MM guarantee for Strider shatters any prior precedent for pitchers with such limited experience. Prior to this deal, the five-year, $35MM contract Madison Bumgarner signed with the Giants more than a decade ago stood as the record extension for a pitcher with between one and two years of service time. (Strider is currently at 1.003 years.) This new contract not only finally topples that dated mark (in decisive fashion), it also surpasses the established extension records for pitchers with two to three years of service time (Blake Snell’s five-year, $50MM deal) and even with three to four years of service (Sandy Alcantara’s five-year, $56MM deal).

Because extensions, more so than free-agent contracts, draw heavily from recent comparables, the Strider deal in many ways paves the way for new precedent to be established in multiple service classes. That’s not to say every pitcher with between one and four years of service time will now require $75MM+ to sign an extension, of course; Strider’s case as a Rookie of the Year frontrunner and budding ace is far from the norm.

Nonetheless, as we’ve seen with young position players in recent years, the market for these types of extensions can still advance rapidly. Back when Acuna signed his eight-year, $100MM extension, that was the largest deal ever for a position player with under a year of big league service. That mark was quickly smashed by Wander Franco (11 years, $182MM) and further surpassed this summer by Julio Rodriguez (12 years, $210MM).

With Strider’s salaries now set through the 2028 season, the Braves, incredibly, already have $76MM on the books six years down the line. That’s more than any other team in baseball. The Padres have about $57MM on the ’28 books between Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., while the Rangers have about $51MM on the books between Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. (Machado can opt out of his deal with the Friars after next year, so the Padres’ 2028 commitments may not end up being quite so large.) Obviously, $76MM in 2028 will carry less weight than $76MM in 2022, but it’s still a hefty commitment to have so far down the line.

There’s some degree of risk for the Braves in laying out such lengthy commitments, even if each looks quite team friendly in a vacuum. Injuries and regression could always push any of these extensions from “bargain” to “burden” — particularly in the later stages of the deals, when the salaries are come with more heft. Still, given the general excellence of this group, it’s impossible not to be bullish on the team’s future.

Looking more immediately down the line, the Braves already have $153MM on next year’s payroll and nearly $110MM on the 2024 payroll. That’s before considering a slate of arbitration-eligible players headlined by lefty Max Fried, who’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn more than $12MM in 2023. Atlanta would have a franchise-record payroll in 2023 even if the only moves made by the front office were to simply tender arbitration contracts to their eligible players.

Of course, that’s certainly not all the Braves will do this winter. First and foremost on the agenda will be negotiations with shortstop Dansby Swanson, who’ll be a free agent once the postseason concludes. The Braves and Swanson have publicly expressed mutual interest in a new contract, but getting something done would likely send the Braves soaring over the $200MM mark in terms of their bottom-line payroll while also pushing them into the general vicinity of the first luxury tax threshold for the first time ever. The Braves also surely are still hopeful of extending Fried, who’s controlled through the 2024 season. If they succeed in signing both Swanson and Fried, there’s virtually no path to avoiding the luxury tax.

On the one hand, while contracts like this Strider extension are cause to celebrate in the long-term, they do also create some shorter-term considerations. Strider would’ve only counted around $750K toward the luxury tax in 2023, had he not signed this extension. He’ll instead now carry a sizable $12.5MM luxury hit — the average annual value of his new contract. It’s still a win for both player and team, but the glut of long-term deals does inflate the Braves’ luxury ledger more quickly than a year-by-year approach would.

On the other hand, that’s a trivial concern when juxtaposed with the benefit of having so many high-end players signed for the next six-plus seasons. And with a World Series win in 2021 and another postseason run forthcoming, the NL East-champion Braves will no doubt see a boost to their revenues, lessening the sting of any luxury penalties that may arise in the next couple years. Atlanta already arguably boasted the best cost-controlled core of any team in baseball over the next half decade, and adding Strider to the preexisting quintet of Harris, Olson, Riley, Albies and Acuna only furthers their case. Waves of injuries can derail any team at any time, but health-permitting, the Braves are going to be good for a long, long time.

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Atlanta Braves Newsstand Transactions Spencer Strider

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Tommy Boggs Passes Away

By Anthony Franco | October 5, 2022 at 11:24pm CDT

Former major league pitcher Tommy Boggs passed away today after a battle with cancer, according to an announcement from Concordia University. Boggs, who’d been the head baseball coach at Concordia since 2009, was 66 years old.

The second overall pick of the 1974 draft, the right-hander joined the Rangers organization out of an Austin high school. Two years later, he was in the big leagues, debuting in July 1976 a few months shy of his 21st birthday. He made 13 starts for Texas as a rookie, pitching to a 3.49 ERA over 90 1/3 frames. He made just six MLB starts the following year, spending most of the season in Triple-A. Boggs was dealt to the Braves at the end of that year, part of a four-team blockbuster that sent Bert Blyleven from Texas to the Pirates.

Boggs would spend the next six seasons in Atlanta. After bouncing between the majors and Triple-A for the first two years, he carved out a permanent rotation role between 1980-81. Boggs had the best year of his career in 1980, making 32 appearances and working to a 3.42 ERA through 192 1/3 frames. He posted a 4.10 mark over 25 outings the following season before transitioning back into a depth role. Boggs stayed in Atlanta until 1983, then returned to the Rangers organization. After a year in the minors, he closed out his playing career with four relief appearances for Texas in ’85.

Altogether, Boggs played parts of nine MLB seasons. He posted a 4.22 ERA over 584 innings, winning 20 games and striking out 278 batters. He started 94 of his 114 big league outings.

MLBTR sends our condolences to Boggs’ family, friends, loved ones, former teammates and the number of players he coached at Concordia.

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NL East Notes: Alcantara, Marte, Strider

By Mark Polishuk | October 1, 2022 at 6:15pm CDT

Sandy Alcantara’s season is officially over, as Marlins manager Don Mattingly told reporters (including the Miami Herald’s Jordan McPherson) today that the star right-hander won’t be pitching in the Marlins’ season finale on Wednesday.  Alcantara pitched yesterday and would’ve been lined up to make his 33rd start in Wednesday’s game against the Braves, but Miami will instead close the book on what might end up as a Cy Young Award-winning campaign for the 27-year-old righty.

Over a league-high 228 2/3 innings, Alcantara has looked like an old-school workhorse in a sport increasingly dominated by pitch counts and bullpen usage.  Alcantara has a 2.28 ERA, 53.6% grounder rate, and 5.6% walk rate to go along with that big workload, and he earned his second All-Star nod.  While Miami is reportedly open to trading from its pitching depth this winter, Alcantara is known be off-limits, as his five-year, $56MM extension signed last November has made him a Marlins cornerstone.

More from the NL East….

  • Starling Marte is still recovering from his fractured right middle finger, as Mets manager Buck Showalter told Newsday’s Tim Healey and other reporters that Marte’s finger still hasn’t healed enough for the outfielder to start swinging or throwing.  Marte hasn’t played since September 6, but his attempts at making it back before the end of New York’s season have already resulted in one cessation of baseball activities, as Marte’s continued discomfort in his finger has prevented him from being able to properly ramp up his readiness.  With the regular season winding down, there must now be concern whether or not Marte will be ready when the Mets start the playoffs, whether that is on Friday (if the Mets are a wild card) or perhaps even on October 11 (if the Mets win the NL East).  Naturally, that latter date would give Marte more time to heal, but the Mets and Braves might be battling for the division title until the final day of the schedule.
  • The Braves are also missing a key figure from the pennant race, as Spencer Strider’s stint on the 15-day injured list will last until that 162nd and final game.  Strider has been dealing with an oblique strain, and manager Brian Snitker told reporters (including Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) that there isn’t any update on whether or not Strider will be able to return for that last game.  The rookie right-hander has been getting treatment and doing core exercises, but while Snitker said that has been some improvement, Strider hasn’t yet started throwing.
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Braves Sign Charlie Morton To One-Year Extension

By Anthony Franco | September 30, 2022 at 10:59pm CDT

The Braves announced this evening they’ve signed starter Charlie Morton to a one-year contract extension. He’ll make $20MM next season, and the sides tacked on a matching $20MM club option for the 2024 campaign with no buyout. The Braves are one of the few major league teams that announce contract terms.

Morton will stick around for a third season in Atlanta. Originally signed to a one-year, $15MM free agent deal over the 2020-21 offseason, he’s now signed late-season extensions in each of the past two years. In both cases, they’ve been a one-year, $20MM guarantee with a matching team option. Atlanta could’ve simply exercised the $20MM option for 2023 in Morton’s previous contract, but their preemptive agreement with the Wasserman client tacks on an additional option for the ’24 campaign.

There’s clearly a mutual comfort between the team and the 15-year MLB veteran. He’s been a durable and effective member of the starting rotation, avoiding the injured list during his first two campaigns in Atlanta and starting 63 regular season contests. He made another four starts during the 2021 postseason. That didn’t end the way he’d have hoped personally, as Morton broke his right leg during his World Series start and had to be scratched from the roster. The club went on to defeat the Astros to secure the title, though, and Morton was back in action by the start of this season.

During his debut campaign in Atlanta, Morton worked to an excellent 3.34 ERA across 185 2/3 innings. He’s not been quite that effective this year, tossing 167 2/3 frames of 4.29 ERA ball heading into his final start of the season. The two-time All-Star’s strikeout rate has been almost identical in each season (28.6% in 2021, 28.4% this year), and he’s not shown any signs of physical decline. Morton has averaged 94.9 MPH on his four-seam and 81.2 MPH on his go-to curveball this season, not far off last year’s respective 95.5 MPH and 80.6 MPH marks.

It’s a similar story on a pitch-for-pitch basis. Morton has generated swinging strikes on 12.3% of his total offerings in both seasons. That’s above this year’s 10.7% league average for starters, and Morton has held a swinging strike rate in the 12% range for five straight years. Even with his 39th birthday less than two months away, Morton hasn’t lost anything from his raw arsenal or his ability to miss bats.

The biggest contributor to his overall dip in production was an atypical struggle to throw strikes early in the season. Morton walked 11 batters in four starts in April, surrendering 14 runs in 18 innings. He’d mostly found his footing from a command perspective by the time the calendar flipped to May. In 26 starts since May 1, he owns a 3.97 ERA with a 29.9% strikeout rate and a manageable 8.2% walk percentage. He’s held opposing hitters to a .218/.301/.384 line over that span. Morton was excellent between June and August before hitting another rough patch this month, posting a 5.27 ERA in five September starts.

The Braves aren’t much concerned about either his early-season control woes or a couple recent tough outings at the hands of the Mariners and Phillies. Morton’s velocity and strong strikeout and walk profile give plenty of reason for optimism he can remain an above-average starter next season, even as his ground-ball rate has dipped to a personal-low 39.7% clip.

Morton, meanwhile, seems content taking a year-by-year approach to his playing career. A longtime back-of-the-rotation grounder specialist with the Pirates, Morton reinvented himself as a strikeout artist with the Astros in 2017. After spending two seasons in Houston, he signed a two-year free agent deal with the Rays before what’ll be at least three consecutive seasons as a Brave. He’s reportedly set geographic limitations during his recent potential free agent trips, preferring to stay in the Southeastern part of the country to be closer to his family.

Of course, the Braves have far more than just locale to make them an appealing place to pitch. Morton remains part of a stellar roster that has the team on the verge of 100 wins and firmly in contention for another NL East title. He’s among a strong rotation led by star rookie Spencer Strider, All-Star Max Fried and breakout hurler Kyle Wright. Veteran Jake Odorizzi has occupied the fifth rotation spot since being acquired from the Astros at the trade deadline, but Atlanta also has rookie Bryce Elder and prospect Freddy Tarnok as promising depth options.

That entire group could return for 2023. Strider, Fried and Wright are all under club control. Odorizzi has to decide whether to trigger a $12.5MM player option or take a $6.25MM buyout and test free agency. Elder and Tarnok are controllable, as are former top prospect and mid-rotation arm Ian Anderson, Mike Soroka, Kyle Muller and Huascar Ynoa (although Ynoa is unlikely to pitch next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery recently).

That’s a number of options, reducing the urgency for the club to look outside the organization for rotation help. Signing Morton to an extension also continues the front office’s habit of trying to preserve as much of the current core as possible. Atlanta has also signed Matt Olson, Austin Riley and Michael Harris II to long-term deals this year, in addition to previous extensions for Ronald Acuña Jr., Travis d’Arnaud and Ozzie Albies.

Locking in another $20MM to next year’s books brings the team’s guaranteed commitments north of $165MM (assuming Odorizzi exercises his option), in the estimation of Roster Resource. That’s before considering the possibility of extending impending free agent shortstop Dansby Swanson or accounting for arbitration salaries for Fried, Soroka and high-leverage reliever A.J. Minter. It’s virtually certain they’ll top this year’s franchise-record $178MM Opening Day payroll, but it’s evidently comfortable territory for the Liberty Media ownership group on the heels of last season’s title and another forthcoming postseason trip that’s certain to include at least two home playoff games.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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Atlanta Braves Newsstand Transactions Charlie Morton

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Braves Select Silvino Bracho

By Steve Adams | September 28, 2022 at 10:35am CDT

The Braves announced Wednesday that they’ve selected the contract of righty Silvino Bracho from Triple-A Gwinnett. Atlanta created roster space by optioning lefty Kyle Muller to Gwinnett and by recalling righty Huascar Ynoa and placing him directly on the 60-day injured list. Ynoa had Tommy John surgery earlier this summer.

It’ll be Bracho’s second stint of the season with the Braves. The former D-backs right-hander opened the year in the Red Sox organization but was traded to Atlanta for cash back in June just hours after Boston had designated him for assignment. Bracho tossed a scoreless inning with Atlanta before being designated for assignment a second time and successfully passed through outright waivers, at which point he accepted an assignment to Triple-A and remained with the organization.

Despite not getting much of a look in Boston or Atlanta this season, Bracho has had a strong season in Triple-A. Through 57 1/3 innings, he’s pitched to a sharp 2.67 ERA with an excellent 30.4% strikeout rate against a tiny 4.3% walk rate. During his lone inning with the Braves earlier this summer, Bracho’s heater sat at 94.1 mph, which is a hair above his career 93.4 mph mark.

From 2015-20, Bracho was an up-and-down member of Arizona’s relief corps, showing promise on multiple occasions but never quite displaying the consistency required to stick on the big league staff. He looked to have turned a corner in 2018 when he logged 31 innings of 3.19 ERA ball with an above-average 26.4% strikeout rate, but Bracho tore the ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow during Spring Training 2019 and underwent Tommy John surgery.

The Braves can technically control Bracho for another three years if they choose to keep him on the 40-man roster, but it’s likelier that this will be a short-term addition that’ll give Bracho another chance or two to square off against big league hitters. In the likely event that he’s removed from the 40-man roster, he’ll be able to become a free agent this offseason — fresh off a health and successful showing in Triple-A.

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Atlanta Braves Transactions Huascar Ynoa Silvino Bracho

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Poll: National League Rookie Of The Year

By Steve Adams | September 26, 2022 at 11:43am CDT

This year’s National League Rookie of the Year voting will be a particularly fun one because the two front-runners happen to be teammates. Braves right-hander Spencer Strider and center fielder Michael Harris II both burst onto the scene in 2022 and both cemented themselves as building blocks in Atlanta. Wins above replacement is far, far from the be-all and end-all in ascertaining player value, but it’s still telling that Strider and Harris are both north of four WAR on the season (per both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs), while no other NL rookie has even three wins above replacement per either version of the metric.

Harris and Strider have both played at an All-Star level this season, though neither actually made the All-Star team this summer. That’s due largely to the fact that Strider began the season in the bullpen and Harris didn’t make his debut until late May. Given their play in 2022, that could change as early as next summer.

There’s still a bit of time for the bottom line to change, although with Strider on the 15-day injured list due to an oblique strain, his regular season is likely over. Harris will have another nine games to build his case, pending any off-days or an untimely injury of his own. Let’s take a quick look at each player’s candidacy.

A Quick Case for Strider

Dominant this season as both a reliever (2.22 ERA in 24 1/3 innings) and a starter (2.77 ERA, 107 1/3 innings), Strider leads all National League rookies with 131 2/3 innings pitched. Cincinnati’s Hunter Greene, a popular ROY pick prior to the season, is a distant second place at 113 2/3 innings. Strider’s gaudy 38.3% strikeout rate isn’t just the best among rookie pitchers in 2022 — it’s the best among all Major League pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings. Shane McClanahan is the only pitcher in Major League Baseball (again, min. 100 innings pitched) who has induced swinging strikes at a higher clip than Strider’s 15.5%.

Strider’s overall numbers — 131 2/3 innings, 2.67 ERA, 38.3% strikeout rate, 8.5% walk rate — are so dominant that if he had a few more innings on his resume, he’d be in the mix for some down-ballot Cy Young votes. (He may still get a handful, but he’s not going to stack up alongside the current leaders.)

A common argument against Strider is that he shouldn’t be favored because he plays less often than an everyday player (e.g. Harris). Firstly, unlike most of even the fringe ROY candidates, Strider broke camp with the Braves this year. He’s been on the roster since Opening Day, which Harris and others can’t claim.

Secondly, Strider has faced 528 batters this season and, were it not for the oblique injury, would’ve pushed that number close to 600. Even that 528 mark is greater than the total number of plate appearances for any National League rookie hitter. Strider (and pitchers in general) may appear in a fewer number of their team’s overall games, but as a pitcher, he has more direct influence on the outcome of every single plate appearance than any of the defenders behind him. On average, he faced 21.7 hitters per start. That’s nearly a week’s worth of plate appearances for a position player.

Put more succinctly, the counter-argument to that common knock on Strider is that hitters play a smaller role in determining the outcome of a large number of their team’s games; pitchers play a larger role in determining the outcome of a small number of their team’s games.

A Quick Case for Harris

In terms of wins above replacement, Harris trails only Julio Rodriguez for the rookie lead, per FanGraphs (4.8), and only Rodriguez and Cleveland’ Steven Kwan, per Baseball-Reference (5.1). He’s a dynamic player in all facets of the game, hitting .305/.346/.535 with 19 home runs and 19 steals apiece. Harris doesn’t walk much (4.7%) and strikes out a bit more than average (23.8%), but that hasn’t stopped him from being 43% better than the average hitter, by measure of wRC+ (or 42%, per OPS+).

Defensively, Harris looks like a future Gold Glover. He might not win one this season, as his cumulative defensive contributions are impacted by the fact that he spent nearly two months in the minors, but every publicly available metric is in agreement that he’s a plus, if not elite defender. In 949 innings of center field work, Harris has received standout marks from Defensive Runs Saved (7), Ultimate Zone Rating (3.9) and Statcast (6 Outs Above Average, 5 Runs Above Average), to name a few. Harris ranks in the 92nd percentile of Statcast’s Outs Above Average, the 87th percentile for his jumps on balls hit to the outfield, and in 94th percentile for pure sprint speed.

It’s true that Strider has more batters faced than Harris has plate appearances, but Harris has fielded far more balls in play in center field than Strider has on the mound. His value as a defensive player is far superior, particularly given his elite results in 2022. Harris also provides baserunning value that Strider doesn’t have the ability (or even the opportunity) to match. Despite appearing in just 106 games so far, Harris ranks 17th among all big leaguers in baserunning runs above average, per FanGraphs’ — a cumulative stat that incorporates more than just his impressive 19-for-21 showing in stolen bases.

—

There’s really no wrong answer; both players have had sensational starts to their career and both have been absolutely vital pieces of a Braves team that trails the Mets by 1.5 games for the National League East lead. Still, only one of the two is going to take home Rookie of the Year honors in November. Who should it be?

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Atlanta Braves MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Michael Harris II Spencer Strider

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