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Braves Acquire Sam Hilliard

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In the first trade of the 2022-23 off-season, the Braves have acquired outfielder Sam Hilliard from Colorado, per an official announcement from the Rockies. Minor league pitcher Dylan Spain is heading back to the Rockies in the deal.

Hilliard, 28, hit .184/.280/.264 with two home runs across 200 plate appearances for the Rockies in 2022. He went much better at their Triple-A affiliate, slashing .308/.405/.669 with 13 home runs. While he’s never really hit at the major league level, his performance in 2022 was someway below his career line of .212/.294/.423 as he’s generally shown more power in the bigs than he showed this season. He did appear at all three outfield positions, but spent most of his time in left where he was worth ten Defensive Runs Saved across 377 innings.

Spain was a tenth round pick for the Braves in the 2021 draft. He spent all of 2022 at their High-A affiliate, tossing 56 innings of 5.30 ERA ball across 36 appearances, most of which came out of the bullpen. The 24-year-old struck out batters 24.7% of the time and walked 5.3%. He struggled a fair bit with the long ball, giving up 11 home runs.

For the Rockies, the trade clears a spot on the 40-man roster, which now stands at 37 players. For the Braves, they get a depth outfielder who could compete for a roster spot in spring training. Hilliard is out of options, but his form at Triple-A shows there’s enough upside for the Braves to give him a shot to potentially land on their bench in 2023.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

Latest On Extension Talks Between Braves, Dansby Swanson

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There’s roughly a week until impending free agents are permitted to speak with other teams. Clubs have an exclusive negotiating window with their free agents for five days after the World Series wraps up.

An extension for any notable free agent this close to the offseason would register as a major surprise, but teams figure to keep in contact with their top players. The Braves and All-Star shortstop Dansby Swanson have talked potential contracts since at least mid-August. Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution wrote last month the sides had exchanged formal proposals, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post now sheds a bit more light on discussions. According to Heyman, the Braves made an offer in the $100MM range at some point during the season.

Precisely when the Braves made the proposal is unknown, but it’s now clear Swanson is in strong position to beat roughly $100MM on his next deal. He’s headed to free agency on the heels of a career year. The former first overall pick has always been a strong defensive shortstop, but he was arguably the game’s top defensive infielder in 2022. That earned him his first career Gold Glove a few months after his first trip to the Midsummer Classic. Swanson also had one of his top offensive showings, connecting on 25 home runs and posting a .277/.329/.447 line while playing in every one of Atlanta’s games.

Swanson’s production tailed off a bit in the second half, but his overall line checked in 16 points above league average by measure of wRC+. That’s right in line with the platform-year showing for Javier Báez and better than that of Trevor Story, each of whom were free agents in a loaded shortstop class last offseason. Both Báez and Story were going into their age-29 seasons, as Swanson is now. They each landed $140MM guarantees on the open market, and both players locked in opt-out clauses into their deals (although the Red Sox can override Story’s opt-out by triggering a club option for a 7th season). Swanson’s representatives at Excel Sports Management are surely well-aware of those recent precedents, and it stands to reason they could look to beat the $140MM mark.

Each of Swanson and Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has gone on record about a mutual desire to keep the shortstop in Atlanta. Swanson is a Georgia native who’s never played for another team at the big league level, and it stands to reason he’d be happy to stick around. Whether he’d take some kind of discount to do so isn’t known, although that he apparently turned down an offer in the realm of nine figures suggests he’s not completely averse to testing the market.

The Braves are a year removed from a high-profile stalemate with former franchise icon Freddie Freeman. Those talks reportedly hit a stumbling block over the Braves’ reluctance to go six guaranteed years, and Freeman eventually signed with the Dodgers after Atlanta pivoted to land and extend Matt Olson. Freeman was also an Excel Sports Management client at the time, but Swanson has consistently maintained that back-and-forth would have no bearing on his relationship with the Braves or his agency.

Obviously, that Swanson declined an extension offer isn’t a guarantee he’ll depart. Heyman reports that proposal was made at some point during the season, and Anthopoulos confirmed after their season wrapped up the team still had interest in a long-term deal. It stands to reason they’ve remained in contact and will continue to do so throughout the offseason. The Braves are sure to extend Swanson a qualifying offer next week, which he’ll reject in search of a much longer and loftier commitment.

MLB Announces 2022 Gold Glove Winners

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Major League Baseball announced the 2022 Gold Glove award winners this evening. This season was the first in which the league added a “utility” award to honor multi-positional players, in addition to the standard nine positions in each league. There are 20 winners overall, 14 of whom received a Gold Glove for the first time. Only two players who won last year claimed the award yet again.

Five teams had multiple winners, with the AL Central-winning Guardians leading the pack with four honorees. Cleveland ranked fourth in the majors (third in the American League) in turning balls in play into outs, with opponents managing a .274 batting average on balls in play against them. That excellent defensive group was an underrated part of the quality run prevention unit that helped Cleveland to a surprising playoff berth.

Here are the full list of winners:

American League

Pitcher: Shane Bieber (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: José Berríos (Blue Jays), Jameson Taillon (Yankees)

Catcher: Jose Trevino (Yankees), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Sean Murphy (Athletics), Cal Raleigh (Mariners)

First Base: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Luis Arraez (Twins), Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)

Second Base: Andrés Giménez (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Jonathan Schoop (Tigers), Marcus Semien (Rangers)

Third Base: Ramón Urías (Orioles), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Matt Chapman (Blue Jays), José Ramírez (Guardians)

Shortstop: Jeremy Peña (Astros), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox), Carlos Correa (Twins)

Left Field: Steven Kwan (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Andrew Benintendi (Royals/Yankees), Brandon Marsh (Angels/Phillies)

Center Field: Myles Straw (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Cedric Mullins (Orioles), Michael A. Taylor (Royals)

Right Field: Kyle Tucker (Astros), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Jackie Bradley Jr. (Red Sox/Blue Jays), Max Kepler (Twins)

Utility: DJ LeMahieu (Yankees), 4th career selection

Other finalists: Whit Merrifield (Royals/Blue Jays), Luis Rengifo (Angels)

National League

Pitcher: Max Fried (Braves), 3rd career selection/3rd consecutive win

Other finalists: Tyler Anderson (Dodgers), Corbin Burnes (Brewers)

Catcher: J.T. Realmuto (Phillies), 2nd career selection

Other finalists: Travis d’Arnaud (Braves), Tomás Nido (Mets)

First Base: Christian Walker (Diamondbacks), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Paul Goldschmidt (Cardinals), Matt Olson (Braves)

Second Base: Brendan Rodgers (Rockies), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Jake Cronenworth (Padres), Tommy Edman (Cardinals)

Third Base: Nolan Arenado (Cardinals), 10th career selection/10th consecutive win

Other finalists: Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates), Ryan McMahon (Rockies)

Shortstop: Dansby Swanson (Braves), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Ha-Seong Kim (Padres), Miguel Rojas (Marlins)

Left Field: Ian Happ (Cubs), 1st career selection

Other finalists: David Peralta (Diamondbacks/Rays), Christian Yelich (Brewers)

Center Field: Trent Grisham (Padres), 2nd career selection

Other finalists: Víctor Robles (Nationals), Alek Thomas (Diamondbacks)

Right Field: Mookie Betts (Dodgers), 6th career selection

Other finalists: Juan Soto (Nationals/Padres), Daulton Varsho (Diamondbacks)

Utility: Brendan Donovan (Cardinals), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Tommy Edman (Cardinals), Daulton Varsho (Diamondbacks)

13 Players Elect Free Agency

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With the World Series kicking off on Friday, we’re only a couple weeks from the opening of the offseason. It’s customary each offseason for dozens of players to hit the open market, separate from the players who reach MLB free agency at the end of the World Series based on the expiration of their contracts while having six-plus years of MLB service time.

Any player who is not on his team’s 40-man roster at season’s end but has three-plus years of MLB service, multiple career outright assignments and/or seven-plus seasons in the minor leagues has the right to elect free agency. Everyone in today’s group falls under that umbrella. The majority will take minor league deals over the winter, although one or two could find a big league deal as a bench piece or middle-inning reliever.

In recent weeks, we’ve provided periodic updates on players qualifying for minor league free agency. Here are the latest, courtesy of the MiLB.com transactions tracker.

Pitchers

Infielders

Outfielders

A Closer Look At The Braves’ Payroll

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Among the biggest questions on the minds of Braves fans at the moment is whether star shortstop Dansby Swanson will be retained, and whether the long-circulating speculation about a potential run at Jacob deGrom, who’ll opt out of his Mets contract in a couple weeks, will come to fruition in the looming offseason. Either of those endeavors would likely require a nine-figure expenditure, and while Atlanta has spent plenty of money over the past half year, it’s worth taking a deeper look to see just how plausible those scenarios — and any other major splashes on the free-agent or trade markets — might be.

Firstly, with regard to that comment about the Braves spending money, any look at their payroll should begin with a recap of president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos’ historic run of contract extensions. Dating back to March, each of Matt Olson (eight years, $168MM), Austin Riley (ten years, $212MM), Michael Harris II (eight years, $72MM) and Spencer Strider (six years, $75MM) have put pen to paper on long-term deals, effectively etching them in stone alongside Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies as the Braves’ foundation for the foreseeable future. The Braves also preemptively exercised Charlie Morton’s $20MM club option for 2023 and tacked on another $20MM club option for the 2024 season.

It might not have been quite as jarring as seeing the Rangers spend a half-billion dollars on a pair of free agents in a span of about 72 hours last winter, but the Braves still put down their own half-billion dollar investment to keep the bulk of this 2022 core intact for the long haul. That doesn’t even include the eye-opening deadline addition of closer Raisel Iglesias, whom the Braves acquired at a relatively cut-rate prospect cost because they agreed to absorb the entirety of his remaining contract from the Angels. He’ll be paid $48MM from 2023-25.

What does that do to their payroll? As one might expect, even though the majority of the extensions have bargain potential and are backloaded in nature, the 2023 books have inflated in a hurry. The Braves owe a combined $153.8MM to the 15 players who have guaranteed contracts on next year’s books. Add in a potential $12.5MM salary for Jake Odorizzi, who has a player option, and the number jumps to $166.3MM.

Further taking into account Matt Swartz’s projected $20MM in arbitration salaries to Max Fried, A.J. Minter and Mike Soroka (presuming non-tenders for Guillermo Heredia, Silvino Bracho and Tyler Matzek, who recently had Tommy John surgery) — the number balloons to $188.3MM for 19 players. Round that out with pre-arbitration players earning at or near the league minimum, and the Braves will have just over $193MM on next year’s Opening Day roster, before even making an addition.

That figure checks in north of what was this season’s franchise-record Opening Day payroll of roughly $178MM, making the Braves one of just three teams in MLB whose current 2023 payroll projection would be a record high before even making a single move. (The Rockies and Blue Jays are also in this boat, by my calculation.)

Does that mean hope is lost for a significant offseason expenditure? Not necessarily. Braves chairman Terry McGuirk told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution earlier this month that his goal is to be able to allow his front office to field one of the sport’s five largest payrolls. That doesn’t mean the Braves will spend for the sole purpose of soaring up the payroll ranks, but it’s nonetheless a bold declaration from a team’s control person and the type of candor we rarely see from such personnel.

For context’s sake, the sport’s top five Opening Day payrolls in 2022, per figures from Cot’s Contracts, belonged to the Dodgers ($281MM), Mets ($264.5MM), Yankees ($246MM), Phillies ($229MM) and Padres ($211MM). The Braves already ranked ninth in Opening Day payroll this past season, and the projected increase to $193-194MM could well boost them another spot or two.

Of course, when looking at large-scale expenditures and top-five payrolls, the notion of the luxury tax has to be considered. The Braves have never before paid that tax, but if McGuirk is being earnest about fielding a top-five payroll, incurring luxury-related penalization becomes practically a given.

It should be noted, too, that while the Braves’ bottom-line payroll for the 2023 season should check in around $193MM (as things currently stand), the luxury bill is quite a bit higher. That’s the one “downside” to locking in so many stars so early; those extensions come with inherent luxury hits that would not have existed had the team gone year-to-year. Luxury taxation is based on the average annual value of a contract, so keeping Strider and Harris on one-year, pre-arbitration contracts for the 2023 season would’ve meant they’d count for around $1.5MM combined against the tax threshold. Instead, they’ll now come with a combined $21.5MM hit. Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez already has the Braves projected for a bit more than $217MM in luxury obligations — only about $16MM shy of next year’s $233MM first-tier threshold.

Perhaps the Braves will be able to find some takers for a portion of the less-desirable contracts on the books. It’s hard to imagine any team wanting much to do with the remaining two years and $36MM on Marcell Ozuna’s ill-fated four-year deal, but finding a taker for Odorizzi’s final season or the one year and $4.5MM owed to backup catcher Manny Pina is more feasible.

Still, there’s no viable scenario where the Braves could shed enough payroll to be able to re-sign Swanson and make a play for one of the market’s other top free agents without skyrocketing into luxury territory. If McGuirk and Liberty Media (the corporation that owns the Braves) are genuinely willing to push toward a top-five payroll, though, then the Braves can’t be ruled out from making ample free-agent splashes this winter.

It’s also worth bearing in mind that the team could yet have hope of extending top starter Max Fried. If that’s the case, the notion of re-signing Swanson and extending Fried alone would push the Braves into luxury territory. In other words, merely keeping the current group together will make the Braves a luxury tax payor. Adding a marquee free agent/trade acquisition (in addition to a potential Swanson and/or Fried deal) could send them hurtling toward the second tier of luxury penalization.

If the Braves are going to have a particularly active offseason — or even if they’re just going to maintain the status quo — they’re going to have to follow a Padres-esque trajectory and set themselves up as potentially annual luxury-tax payors for the foreseeable future.

Marlins Managerial Rumors: Espada, Quatraro, Weiss

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TODAY: Braves bench coach Walt Weiss turned down an interview request from the Marlins, according to Jon Heyman of The New York Post.  Weiss posted a 283-365 record as the Rockies’ manager from 2013-16, and he just completed his fourth season as Atlanta’s bench coach.  A 14-year Major League veteran best known for his time with the great Athletics teams of the late 80’s and early 90’s, Weiss spent a season with the Marlins in 1993, playing on the team’s inaugural roster.

OCTOBER 20: Astros bench coach Joe Espada and Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro have landed a second interview for the vacant Marlins managerial post, according to Craig Mish of SportsGrid. It was reported last week that Espada was interviewing for the position for the first time, but it’s the first reporting of the Marlins interest in Quatraro. Royals bench coach Pedro Grifol is the other known interviewee, although it’s unclear if he was asked back for a second time. Mish notes that a number of additional interviews have not been reported, so while there may well be a number of other candidates in play, the fact that Espada and Quatraro are interviewing a second time indicates they are starting to narrow down their search.

Both Espada and Quatraro have long been viewed as managers-in-waiting, and Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times suggests Quatraro could also be in the mix for the vacant Royals, White Sox and Rangers jobs. Espada, meanwhile, has already interviewed for the White Sox position.

It’s not the first season that Espada, 47, has drawn managerial interest. The Puerto Rico native has been a respected member of the Astros coaching staff since 2017, and has had interest from the Mets, Cubs, A’s, Twins and Giants in recent years.

Similarly, Quatraro, 48, is heading into yet another off-season where his name is heavily linked with managerial posts. The A’s, Giants and Pirates were linked with Quatraro in recent years, while it was reported he was a finalist for the Mets position last year before they opted for Buck Showalter.

Braves Notes: Dansby Swanson, Charlie Morton, Kenley Jansen

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After following up their underdog 2021 Cinderella World Series win with an improved 101-win season, the Braves have been eliminated from the 2022 postseason by the Phillies. With their 2022 season in the rearview mirror, General Manager Alex Anthopoulos will be hard at work improving the already impressive Braves core.

Perhaps the most important question facing the Braves as they head into the offseason is their hole at shortstop. Atlanta native Dansby Swanson has been the Braves’ starting shortstop since 2016, and will be a free agent for the first this offseason after receiving a $10MM salary during his final trip through the arbitration process. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported that the Braves had opened extension talks with Swanson in mid-August, but there has yet to be a tangible result.

Swanson, who is coming off his fourth consecutive strong season, slashed .277/.329/.447 while posting the highest Outs Above Average (20) among qualified shortstops en route to his first All-Star appearance. He joins Trea Turner, and, if they exercise their opt-outs, Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts as the top options at short.

When asked about his thoughts on free agency and potentially leaving the Braves, Swanson responded that free agency is “the last thing on my mind,” per Mark Bowman of MLB.com. However, Anthopoulos confirmed in a press conference earlier today that there is mutual interest in getting a deal done, but he didn’t provide specific figures, per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

The Braves, who have become notorious in recent seasons for signing players in the early stage of their career to ‘team-friendly’ contracts (Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II, Spencer Strider, Austin Riley), currently have roughly $186MM committed to the 2023 season, not factoring in arbitration, per Roster Resource. However, out of arbitration-eligible players, only starter Max Fried is predicted to significantly impact the Braves’ payroll, with other arbitration-eligible players expected to earn under $3MM if they are tendered contracts.

Importantly, in the 2021 offseason, the Braves reportedly offered long-time first baseman Freddie Freeman a five-year contract in the $135MM-$140MM range. When talks stalled, the Braves moved to acquire Matt Olson from the Athletics, signing him to an eight-year, $168MM contract. Freeman then went on to sign with the Dodgers on a six-year, $162MM contract.

The Braves, potentially, already have Swanson’s replacement in Vaughn Grissom, who posted a strong .291/.353/.440 line in 151 at-bats after being called up in mid-August. Grissom has primarily played second in his brief Major League career but came up through the Minors as a shortstop. If Swanson is re-signed, Grissom may be forced to transition to the outfield or work as a utility player with Riley and Albies patrolling the infield.

Transitioning to the mound, starter Charlie Morton was forced to exit yesterday’s game in the third inning after taking a line drive to his pitching elbow. Morton initially stayed in the game and completed the inning but was pulled by manager Brian Snitker after Snitker watched Morton warm up prior to the third inning. During an in-game interview, Snitker announced that x-rays showed no structural damage in Morton’s elbow, and that Morton wanted to try and continue to pitch, per Mike Axisa of CBS.

Morton had pitched two innings prior to leaving the game, giving up four hits and three runs, all on a Brandon Marsh homer. Morton, who turns 39 in November was a steady force in the Braves’ rotation, pitching to a 4.34 ERA in 172 innings (31 starts) with a strong 28.2% strikeout rate. His strong performance led to a one-year, $20MM contract extension for the 2023 season, with a $20MM club option for the 2024 campaign.

Reliever Kenley Jansen is entering free agency, but Anthopoulos has made it clear that the Braves would “love to have him back,” per Toscano. After leaving the Dodgers in free agency to join the Braves on a one-year, $16MM contract, Jansen led the National League in saves with 41, posting a 3.38 ERA in 64 innings with a lofty 32.7% strikeout rate. However, Jansen’s HardHit percentage spiked from 26.1% in 2021 to 32.5% in 2022, and his ground ball rate dropped from 37.3% to 29.1%, the second-lowest mark of his career.

If the Braves and Jansen are unable to come to an agreement, they likely have his successor in Raisel Iglesias who was acquired at the 2022 trade deadline in exchange for pitching prospect Tucker Davidson and Jesse Chavez. Since joining Atlanta, Iglesias has allowed only one run in 26 1/3 innings, resulting in a minuscule 0.32 ERA. These strong numbers are backed by a high 30.0% strikeout rate, a low 5.0% walk rate, and a solid 40.6% ground ball rate.

19 Players Elect Free Agency

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Players hit minor league free agency on a daily basis during the postseason, as opposed to major league free agents who hit free agency following the World Series when their contracts expire. On Thursday, MLBTR covered 15 players who elected minor league free agency, and we will continue to provide occasional updates as players continue to hit the open market, as noted on the MiLB.com transactions log.

If a player is not on their organization’s 40-man roster at the end of the season, he will hit minor league free agency as long as he has at least 3 years of MLB service time, been assigned outright more than once in his career, and/or has played in the minor leagues for parts of seven or more seasons. Everyone on today’s list is part of that group of players, and most will search for another minor league deal this offseason, though a few may manage to latch onto a major league club and secure a bench or bullpen spot entering the 2023 season.

Infielders:

Outfielders:

Pitchers:

Bruce Sutter Passes Away

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The Cardinals announced that Hall of Fame pitcher and World Series champion Bruce Sutter has passed away. He was 69 years old.

MLB commissioner Rob Manfred released a statement in regards to Sutter’s passing: “I am deeply saddened by the news of the passing of Bruce Sutter, whose career was an incredible baseball success story. Bruce ascended from being a nondrafted free agent to the heights of Baseball by pioneering the split-fingered fastball.  That pitch not only led him to the Major Leagues, but also made him a Cy Young Award winner with the Cubs and a World Series Champion with the 1982 Cardinals.  Bruce was the first pitcher to reach the Hall of Fame without starting a game, and he was one of the key figures who foreshadowed how the use of relievers would evolve. Bruce will be remembered as one of the best pitchers in the histories of two of our most historic franchises.  On behalf of Major League Baseball, I extend my condolences to Bruce’s family, his friends and his fans in Chicago, St. Louis, Atlanta and throughout our game.”

Sutter was initially drafted by the Washington Senators in 1970 but decided to attend Old Dominion University instead. The next year, as Manfred mentioned, Sutter signed with the Cubs as a nondrafted free agent. He underwent surgery in the minors but found his pitches to be less effective after returning to action. He started working on a splitter to improve his repertoire, a pitch that would come to define his career.

He made his MLB debut with the Cubs in 1976. He was an effective reliever right away, throwing 83 1/3 innings over 52 appearances, registering a 2.70 ERA and notching 10 saves. He took a step forward the next year, throwing 107 1/3 innings in 62 games with a 1.34 ERA and 31 saves. He made the All-Star team that year, the first of six teams he would eventually make in his career.

Sutter continued along in that fashion for the next few seasons, racking up saves while pitching multi-inning outings. In 1979, he was given the Cy Young award for his efforts, a rare feat for a relief pitcher. He saved 37 games that year while recording a 2.22 ERA in 101 1/3 innings.

He was traded from the Cubs to the Cardinals prior to the 1981 campaign and would spend four seasons in St. Louis, largely continuing with the same level of excellence he had established in Chicago. 1982 was certainly a season to remember for both Sutter and the Cards. The club went 92-70 during the regular season, winning the NL East on the back of a 36-save season from Sutter. They swept the Braves 3-0 in the NLCS, with Sutter earning the win in Game 2 and the save in Game 3. They then faced off against the Brewers in the World Series and eventually emerged victorious in seven games, with Sutter winning Game 2 and then saving Game 3 and Game 7. (Video of Sutter recording the final out via MLB.com’s YouTube page.)

Sutter reached free agency and signed with Atlanta prior to the 1985 season, though his effectiveness started to wane as he got into his 30s. He posted an ERA above 4.00 in his first two years in Atlanta, missed the 1987 season entirely due to shoulder surgery, before returning in 1988 to post a 4.76 ERA in what would be his final season.

He wrapped up his MLB career with exactly 300 saves, which was the third-most in history at that time, behind only Rollie Fingers and Goose Gossage. He also collected 68 victories while posting a 2.83 ERA in a career that included 1042 1/3 innings. He made six All-Star teams, won a Cy Young award and a World Series title. After lingering on the Hall of Fame ballot for over a decade, Sutter was eventually elected in 2006, his 13th year on the ballot.

MLBTR sends our condolences to his family, friends, loved ones and former teammates who are mourning him today.

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