Offseason In Review: Detroit Tigers
For a long time, it seemed like it would be another conservative offseason for the Tigers, but the boldest strike of the Scott Harris era finally came. The Tigers now look like the strongest team in MLB’s weakest division, in what could be their final season with Tarik Skubal.
Major League Free Agent Signings
- LHP Framber Valdez: Three years, $115MM (includes opt-out after 2027, $40MM mutual option for 2029 with $5MM buyout, $20MM signing bonus deferred until 2030)
- 2B Gleyber Torres: One year, $22.025MM (accepted qualifying offer)
- RHP Kyle Finnegan: Two years, $19MM (includes $2.25MM buyout on $10MM mutual option for 2028)
- RHP Justin Verlander: One year, $13MM ($11MM deferred until 2030)
- RHP Kenley Jansen: One year, $11MM (includes $2MM buyout on $12MM club option for 2027)
- RHP Drew Anderson: One year, $7MM (includes $10MM club option for 2027)
2026 spending (not including deferred money owed to Valdez and Verlander): $68.275MM
Total spending: $187.025MM
Trades and Waiver Claims
- Claimed RHP Jack Little off waivers from the Pirates (later non-tendered and re-signed to minor league deal)
- Claimed RHP Dugan Darnell off waivers from the Pirates (later non-tendered and re-signed to minor league deal)
- Traded RHP Chase Lee to Blue Jays for LHP Johan Simon
- Traded OF Justyn-Henry Malloy to Rays for cash considerations
Option Decisions
- RHP Jack Flaherty exercised $20MM player option
- Team declined $4MM club option on RHP José Urquidy, no buyout
- Team declined $6MM club option on RHP Randy Dobnak in favor of $1MM buyout
- Team declined $10MM mutual option on RHP Paul Sewald in favor of $1MM buyout
Notable Minor League Signings
- Tomás Nido, Jack Little, Tanner Rainey, Sean Guenther, Enmanuel De Jesus, Cole Waites, Tyler Mattison, Scott Effross, Dugan Darnell, Burch Smith, Bryan Sammons, Phil Bickford, Corey Julks, Konnor Pilkington, Austin Slater, Colin Poche
Extensions
- None yet
Notable Losses
- Chris Paddack, Rafael Montero, Paul Sewald, José Urquidy, Tommy Kahnle (unsigned), Alex Cobb (unsigned), Alex Lange (released), Andy Ibáñez (non-tendered), RJ Petit (Rule 5 draft), Chase Lee, Justyn-Henry Malloy
The Tigers hired Scott Harris as president of baseball operations in September of 2022. The team was in a rut at that point, having not made the playoffs since 2014. They finally pulled out of rebuilding mode by making the playoffs in 2024 and 2025.
Despite the return to contention, the front office’s approach has generally come across as risk-averse. Last winter, they signed a number of free agents but mostly on the modest side. They were all one-year deals except for their two-year deal with Jack Flaherty. Even that pact was seemingly designed to be a one-year arrangement, with Flaherty having an opt-out halfway through.
The Tigers were quite good for most of the 2025 season, but their deadline was a bit underwhelming. Acquiring Chris Paddack, Charlie Morton, Rafael Montero, Kyle Finnegan and Paul Sewald wasn’t an exciting haul. The Finnegan pickup worked quite well, but Morton was eventually released and Paddack moved to the bullpen. The Tigers remarkably lost their hold on the division lead when they went 7-17 in September and finished second to the Guardians. They limped into the postseason, won the Wild Card series (against Cleveland) but were eliminated in the ALDS.
Going into this winter, it was fair to wonder whether the urgency would get cranked up. With Tarik Skubal entering his final year of club control before reaching free agency, the 2026 season seemed like a good time to put some chips on the table.
The uncertainty there also led to plenty of trade speculation around Skubal, which was understandable from fans of other clubs. Since he’s so talented and with no signs of an extension being viable, it was a logical dream. But from Detroit’s point of view, they went into the winter with a strong team in the most wide-open division in the league. Keeping Skubal and going for a title always seemed the far likelier play.
Some of the offseason moves came fairly quickly. In mid-October, just a few days after being eliminated from the playoffs, it was announced that manager A.J. Hinch had been extended. The deal actually took place during the season but the announcement was held until after.
Not long after that, a few of the chess pieces moved into place. Or rather, they stayed in place. In early November, Flaherty surprisingly decided to trigger his $20MM player option instead of heading to the open market. He wasn’t coming off a great season but still would have had a shot at beating that price point as a somewhat reliable mid-rotation starter. It also would have been possible that the Tigers made him a $22.025MM qualifying offer, giving him a chance to feel out the market. If he didn’t find much to inspire confidence, he could have then decided to return to Detroit with a slight bump over his existing contract. But perhaps due to his extended stay in free agency last time, Flaherty decided to skip the whole thing and just stay in Detroit for another year.
A few days later, the Tigers made a somewhat surprising call of their own, issuing a QO to second baseman Gleyber Torres. They had signed him going into 2025, a one-year deal worth $15MM. He had a strong first half but then slumped in the second as he played through a hernia that ultimately required surgery after the season was done. It didn’t seem like he had done much to increase his earning power in the one year from when he signed for $15MM, but the Tigers were apparently comfortable giving him a raise of almost 50%. Torres was comfortable with that raise as well, as he accepted the QO.
From there, the Tigers shifted their focus to pitching. They were connected to many of this winter’s free agents, including Devin Williams, Ryan Helsley, Pete Fairbanks, Michael King, Ranger Suárez and many others.
In the first few weeks of December, they added a few arms to the staff. Drew Anderson signed a one-year deal worth $7MM. He’s not a household name in North America, as he’s been pitching in Asia for the past four years, starting with two in Japan and then two in South Korea. His results in the KBO in 2025 were excellent. Anderson posted a 2.25 earned run average with a 35.3% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and 45.9% ground ball rate.
It’s not a guarantee that he will translate that to the majors, but it’s not a huge gamble for the Tigers, relatively speaking. Cody Ponce was only slightly better than Anderson in the KBO last year but he had enough juice to get a three-year, $30MM deal from the Blue Jays. Anderson was exclusively a starter in 2025 and looked to have a path to a rotation job with Detroit at the time of the signing. But he also has some relief experience and his ultimate role would depend on what other moves the Tigers made by the end of the winter.
Then came a couple of bullpen additions. In mid-December, the Tigers added Kenley Jansen on a one-year deal worth $11MM and brought back Finnegan on a two-year deal worth $19MM. As mentioned, Finnegan was the club’s best deadline pickup. The Tigers altered his pitch mix, having him throw way more splitters at the expense of his fastball. The result was a massive increase in strikeout rate — from 19.6% with the Nationals to 34.8% with the Tigers. Given that quick jump, it made sense to keep the relationship going.
Jansen is 38 years old and isn’t as dominant as he once was, but he has remained a reliably impactful arm. He has pitched at least 44 innings in each full season dating back to 2011. He didn’t finish any of those with an ERA higher than 3.71. Despite a career-low strikeout rate, Jansen posted a 2.59 ERA in 2025.
On the position player side, the Tigers sniffed around but didn’t bite into anything. They had made a strong push to sign Alex Bregman last winter but weren’t nearly as involved this time around. They were connected to players like Ketel Marte and Ha-Seong Kim without a lot of smoke.
In the end, they’re essentially going into 2026 with the same position player group as they had in 2025. That could be a little worrying for fans, considering that the team stumbled through the second half last year. It seems the club is hoping the big offensive boost comes from within. That could come from better health from incumbent players, including Torres, but also the arrival of some touted prospects.
Kevin McGonigle is a consensus top five prospect in the sport, with many evaluators placing him second behind Konnor Griffin of the Pirates. McGonigle spent the second half of 2025 in Double-A and crushed. He hit 12 home runs in 206 plate appearances and slashed .254/.369/.550 for a 162 wRC+ despite an unlucky .230 batting average on balls in play.
Evaluators aren’t convinced he will stick at shortstop in the long run, but that’s a spot the Tigers have open for now. Zach McKinstry and Javier Báez could be bumped into utility roles. The most likely path forward is that McGonigle starts 2026 in Triple-A, but he could quickly hit his way to the majors. Even if the Tigers aren’t prepared to break camp with him, McGonigle has a good shot to force his way into the majors before too long.
There are some other prospect who could also come up and make an impact, including Max Clark in the outfield, with Thayron Liranzo and Josue Briceño behind the plate. Like McGonigle, those three finished 2025 at Double-A, putting them somewhat close to the big leagues. Infielder Max Anderson isn’t ranked quite as highly as the other prospects covered here, but he hit .296/.350/.478 between Double-A and Triple-A as a 23-year-old. He’ll be in the mix as infield needs arise.
January brought a surprising plot twist to the Detroit offseason. The arbitration filing deadline came and went with the Tigers reaching deals with all their eligible players except for one. That’s a fairly normal occurrence — but the one holdout happened to be Skubal and the gap in the filing numbers was a shockingly high number of $13MM.
Many accused the Tigers of low-balling their star player, but their $19MM filing figure was backed by precedent. No pitcher had ever topped $20MM in arbitration before. Skubal’s camp was arguing that he deserved to buck precedent due to his tremendous accomplishments and because arbitration pitcher salaries had stagnated and fallen way behind hitters. David Price earned $19.75MM in 2015 and no one had pushed that number up in the decade since.
That big gap hung in the air for about a month, with Skubal’s hearing result not expected until February. The day after those filing figures were submitted, there was another development on the financial side. Nine teams, including the Tigers, terminated contracts with the floundering Main Street Sports, the company which owns the FanDuel Sports Network channels. That left the Tigers with uncertainty regarding their broadcast situation and its associated revenue. (It would later be reported by the Associated Press in February that MLB will handle the broadcasts.)
The Tigers were fairly quiet on the transaction front throughout January, which led to some real concern that the offseason would be yet another instance of the club avoiding bold moves. At that time, they had the same lineup as 2025. On the pitching staff, the changes were minimal. The rotation looked like it needed a nice upside play, but rumors in late January connected Detroit to swing types like Nick Martinez and Jose Quintana. With Skubal potentially costing the Tigers $13MM more than expected and the broadcast revenue up in the air, would the Tigers sit on their hands?
Before the Skubal hearing result came in, a resounding answer was sent rippling through the baseball world. It was reported on February 4th that the Tigers and left-hander Framber Valdez had a agreed to a three-year deal worth $115MM. That guarantee and the $38.3MM average annual value made it easily the most significant deal of the Harris era.
It did still have some Harris-ian qualities. This front office clearly likes to avoid long commitments, as mentioned earlier. Three years is the longest free agent deal given out by Harris, but there is an opt-out for Valdez after year two. Even in making their most significant free agent addition, the Tigers are still trying to avoid long-term handcuffs.
Still, it’s a big upgrade for 2026, arguably the best they could have hoped for. Valdez was considered by many the top free agent pitcher available this winter. Dylan Cease was projected to earn more money and did so, but that was mostly due to age difference. The 32-year-old Valdez is two years older than Cease but arguably as desirable from a pure skill standpoint. Valdez has a 3.36 ERA in his career. His strikeout and walk rates are usually around league average, while his ground ball rate is often one of the best in the league. Even if he’s only in Detroit for two years, Valdez increases the club’s chances of capitalizing on what could be Skubal’s final year in Detroit. And if Skubal does depart, Valdez can take over as the de facto ace for a year while the club moves into its post-Skubal era.
A few days later, an arbitration panel ruled in favor of Skubal, awarding him the $32MM salary for which he’d filed rather than the team’s $19MM figure. That’s potentially a seismic result for the players. Its impact on salaries might be felt for years to come. For the 2026 Tigers, it meant an extra $13MM on the books.
That didn’t stop the Tigers from adding, however. A few days later, they reunited with old friend Justin Verlander. His addition to the rotation also came with a subtraction, as it was announced that Reese Olson would miss the season due to shoulder surgery.
Perhaps the Skubal decision led the Tigers to lean on deferrals a bit more. The Valdez deal, which was announced before the Skubal decision but didn’t become official until after, features a $20MM signing bonus which is deferred and paid out from 2030 to 2039. Verlander will only get $2MM this year, with the other $11MM paid out in that same 2030-39 span. Would the Tigers have deferred less if they had beaten Skubal in the hearing?
That’s speculative and a fairly moot point. The larger takeaway here is that the Tigers have stepped on the gas pedal. They had run payrolls near $200MM in the past under previous owner Mike Ilitch. Since Mike passed in 2017, his son Chris has been in charge without the same level of spending. The club was rebuilding for his first few years, but their recent return to contender status didn’t vault them back up to that payroll level, until now. For 2026, RosterResource projects them for a $217MM payroll, with a $242MM competitive balance tax number that puts them right against payor status. Both numbers project to be franchise records.
On the position player side, the Tigers are relying on their guys either improving, getting healthier or bubbling up from the minors — at least for now. If they have holes come July, they can patch them at the deadline. The pitching staff has clearly been upgraded. They can go into the season with a front five of Skubal, Valdez, Flaherty, Verlander and Casey Mize, with Drew Anderson in the mix as well. Jackson Jobe could return late in the year, as he is currently recovering from June Tommy John surgery. Troy Melton could also take a step forward, though he’s been slowed by elbow inflammation in camp and may not be ready for Opening Day.
Time will tell if this is Skubal’s final year in Detroit. It would have been criminal if the Tigers didn’t at least act like it was a possibility. Thankfully, they have been more aggressive than usual this winter as they try to take advantage of having the best pitcher alive, before it’s too late.
How do MLBTR readers grade Detroit’s offseason? Have your say in our latest poll:
How would you grade the Tigers' offseason?
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B 55% (934)
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A 22% (369)
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C 18% (308)
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D 3% (51)
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F 2% (29)
Total votes: 1,691
Photo courtesy of Junfu Han, Imagn Images
Poll: Will Konnor Griffin Break Camp With The Pirates?
As Spring Training gets underway, many fans are watching top prospects. For the Pirates’ Konnor Griffin, however, it’s not just fans in Pittsburgh watching to see if he’ll be in the starting lineup on Opening Day; it’s the entire baseball world.
Griffin won’t celebrate his 20th birthday until the end of April. The ninth overall pick in the 2024 draft opened eyes all around the sport with his performance in his first professional season last year, slashing .333/.415/.527 in 122 games across three levels, topping out in Double-A. That was enough to make him the consensus top prospect in the sport. The Athletic’s Keith Law called Griffin “the most exciting prospect in the minors since Mike Trout” last month, while FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen described Griffin as “a franchise-altering entity whose talent rivals that of Bobby Witt Jr.”
It’s hard to get much more impressive than comparisons to Trout and Witt. Between the hype prospect evaluators of all stripes are heaping onto Griffin and his unbelievable start to his pro career, it’s understandable that he would be in the conversation to start the season with the Pirates on Opening Day, even though he’ll still be a teenager.
For now, the Pirates are saying all the right things. Every indication has been that the team will give Griffin the opportunity to earn his way onto the roster. The players currently standing in his way, Nick Gonzales and Jared Triolo, aren’t the sort of slam-dunk regulars that would normally give a club pause when it comes to pushing one of them into a bench role. That open avenue toward a roster spot is great news for Griffin, and so far he’s made the most of the opportunity he’s been handed during camp with two homers in his first ten plate appearances this spring.
There are other factors to consider as well. The most obvious is that Griffin is extremely inexperienced as a professional. He’s played only 122 professional games. Elite prospects have been getting called up more quickly since Trout made his debut 15 years ago, but even by more recent standards Griffin would be among the fastest to reach the show. Witt had 161 games in the minors before his big league debut, and Juan Soto‘s short stint in the minor leagues lasted 122 games, the exact amount Griffin logged last year.
The Pirates are entering a year where they’re clearing trying to win, more than in other recent seasons. They added Ryan O’Hearn, Brandon Lowe, and Marcell Ozuna to help bolster a stagnant offense and added Gregory Soto to the bullpen as well. That quartet cost around $60MM in total, which is a notable chunk of change by the Pirates’ typical standards.
Reigning Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes is under club control for just four more seasons before he’ll reach free agency and could see his arbitration price explode by 2027 or 2028. The Pirates are acutely aware of that, and getting the most out of Griffin they possibly can while Skenes is still in town should be the team’s top priority.
Service time is another factor the Pirates will need to consider, and that cuts both ways when it comes to the Griffin decision. Holding Griffin down for even just three weeks to start the year could unlock a seventh year of team control over Griffin by ensuring he doesn’t earn a full year of MLB service in 2026. The counter to that, of course, is Skenes himself. The Pirates didn’t promote Skenes until May 2024, but he was still dominant enough once he arrived to win the NL Rookie of the Year Award and earn himself a full year of service anyway. Had they simply brought Skenes up on Opening Day, the Pirates would’ve been able to secure an extra draft pick thanks to his Rookie of the Year win.
Another wrinkle in the service time conversation is Griffin’s apparent willingness to consider an extension with Pittsburgh. If the sides were to reach a deal either this spring or in the early days of the 2026 campaign, that would negate the service time concerns. While explicitly holding a player down due to service time considerations or promoting them only if they agree to an extension is frowned upon, it has happened. The prospect promotion incentives added in the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement have somewhat lessened the frequency with which such situations occur, but they’ve also prompted some teams to wait until late August with prospects who otherwise look ready, so as to preserve their rookie status (and potential PPI gains) the following season. The Pirates didn’t call Bubba Chandler up until Aug. 22 last year. If they do agree to an extension, the Bucs would be incentivized to not finalize it until after Griffin’s debut. A player who signs a pre-debut extension is not eligible to earn a PPI pick for his team.
How do MLBTR readers think Griffin’s candidacy for a spot on the Opening Day roster will play out? Will he make the team, or start the year in the minor leagues? Or, perhaps, could his status on the MLB roster be determined by how extension talks between the sides go this spring? Have your say in the poll below:
Will Konnor Griffin break camp with the Pirates?
Offseason In Review: Seattle Mariners
The 2025 Mariners were a game away from the World Series. Their two-decade playoff drought and status as perennial runner-up increasingly feels like a thing of the past. They enter the 2026 season as the AL West favorite in projections at both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus after a winter that featured multiple upgrades.
Major League Free Agent Signings
- Josh Naylor, 1B: Five years, $92.5MM
- Rob Refsnyder, OF: One year, $6.25MM
- Andrew Knizner, C: One year, $1MM
Option Decisions
- Team declined $12MM mutual option on C Mitch Garver (paid $1MM buyout)
- Team exercised $7MM club option on RHP Andres Munoz
- INF Jorge Polanco declined $8MM player option
Trades and Waiver Claims
- Acquired INF/OF Brendan Donovan from Cardinals in three-team trade also involving Rays; Mariners sent SHP Jurrangelo Cijntje, OF Tai Peete, Competitive Balance pick (Round B) to Cardinals, 3B Ben Williamson to Rays
- Acquired LHP Jose A. Ferrer from Nationals in exchange for C Harry Ford, minor league RHP Isaac Lyon
- Acquired RHP Yosver Zulueta from Reds in exchange for minor league RHP Dusty Revis
- Acquired minor league LHP Robinson Ortiz from Dodgers in exchange for minor league RHP Tyler Gough
- Acquired minor league RHP Alex Hoppe from Red Sox in exchange for minor league C Luke Heyman
- Acquired RHP Cooper Criswell from Mets for cash
- Acquired C Jhonny Pereda from Twins for cash
- Acquired LHP Josh Simpson from Marlins for cash
- Acquired RHP Cole Wilcox from Rays for cash
- Claimed RHP Ryan Loutos off waivers from Nationals
Extensions
- None yet
Notable Minor League Signings
- Mitch Garver, Dane Dunning, Connor Joe, Casey Lawrence, Randy Dobnak, Guillo Zuñiga, Patrick Wisdom, Michael Rucker, Jhonathan Diaz, Brian O’Keefe, Jakson Reetz, Will Wilson, Brennen Davis
Notable Losses
- Eugenio Suarez, Ben Williamson, Harry Ford, Caleb Ferguson, Luke Jackson, Tayler Saucedo (non-tendered), Gregory Santos (non-tendered), Trent Thornton (non-tendered), Jackson Kowar (claimed by Twins)
When fans think of the Mariners, the dominant starting rotation is often the first thing that comes to mind. The 2025 season, Seattle’s best since 2000-02, played out in somewhat uncharacteristic fashion, however. The rotation was solid but not elite. Mariners starters barely cracked the top half of baseball in terms of ERA, due in part to injuries up and down the staff. Seattle’s bullpen ranked top-10 in ERA, however, and the lineup finished tenth or better in runs scored, home runs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and wRC+. Cal Raleigh, the AL MVP runner-up, played a huge role in the Mariners’ offensive eruption, but the Seattle lineup was a strong unit top to bottom.
Seattle’s deadline acquisition of Josh Naylor from the D-backs played a big part in that. Naylor hit the ground running in the Emerald City and immediately looked at home, slashing .299/.341/.490 with nine homers in 210 plate appearances. The 5’10”, 235-pound Naylor even delighted baseball fans (not just Seattle fans) by somehow going 19-for-19 in stolen base attempts despite sitting in the third percentile of big leaguers in terms of average sprint speed, per Statcast. Naylor entered the season with 25 career steals in 598 games. He played 54 games as a Mariner.
President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto made it known before season’s end that keeping Naylor was not just a priority for the Mariners but the offseason priority. Appearing on the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, Dipoto told host Darragh McDonald that Naylor was “as good as anybody that’s played in the last handful of years at hitting in this ballpark” while voicing a strong desire to keep the 28-year-old slugger.
True to his word, Dipoto wasted little time in making an aggressive push to keep his newly acquired first baseman. Naylor, who also raved late in the season about how much he loved playing in Seattle, was one of the first major free agents off the board, coming to terms on a five-year, $92.5MM deal two weeks after the World Series wrapped up.
Naylor’s deal is the largest contract the Mariners have given to a free-agent position player since Dipoto began running baseball operations for the Mariners more than a decade ago — and not just barely, but by a magnitude of nearly four times. Dipoto has been open about his desires to avoid building a roster through free agency, and his affinity for working the trade market is well known. That Naylor nearly quadrupled the $24MM guarantee paid to Mitch Garver underscores how strongly the Mariners felt about keeping him. Prior to the Naylor signing, Garver was the only free agent position player to sign a multi-year free agent deal with Seattle in ten years.
While Naylor was the priority, the Mariners remained open to re-signing veterans Jorge Polanco and Eugenio Suarez, both of whom hit in the middle of the lineup down the stretch and into the playoffs. Polanco was always deemed more likely, but the Mariners apparently balked at matching or topping the two-year, $40MM deal he received from the Mets. That $20MM average annual value was steeper than nearly any pundit or fan thought Polanco would command.
The veteran Polanco’s departure left the Mariners in a familiar position. As was the case the offseason prior, the M’s had openings at both second base and third base. Dipoto and GM Justin Hollander spent most of the 2024-25 offseason working the trade market to find an option at one or both positions before ultimately re-signing Polanco to one-year deal that turned out to be a raucous bargain.
For much of the current offseason, it looked as though things might play out similarly. The Mariners engaged with the Cardinals on Brendan Donovan early, but interest in the utilityman extraordinaire was robust. Dipoto and Hollander kept in touch with Suarez’s camp, were at least loosely involved in the market for star NPB third baseman Kazuma Okamoto, spoke to the D-backs repeatedly about Ketel Marte and inquired on the Cubs’ Nico Hoerner. There were surely other trade and free agent targets whose names didn’t become public.
Through it all, the Mariners were cited as one of the top suitors and front-runners for Donovan, who entered the offseason as a veritable lock to be traded by the rebuilding Cardinals. It may have taken longer than fans hoped, but the Mariners eventually got their man on Feb. 2, parting with top pitching prospect Jurrangelo Cijntje, outfield prospect Tai Peete, young third baseman Ben Williamson and a Round B Competitive Balance draft pick (No. 68 overall) in a three-team deal that brought Donovan their way. Seattle’s interest in the former Gold Glove winner dated back to last season, meaning the three-team swap capped off more than a yearlong pursuit of the versatile infielder/outfielder.
Donovan indeed feels like a perfect fit for the M’s. He’s a quality defender at either third base or second base, meaning the Mariners can see which of Cole Young and Colt Emerson stand out the most this spring. The hope is that Emerson is the team’s long-term third baseman — or perhaps shortstop, if J.P. Crawford departs in free agency next winter — and that Young is the second baseman of the future. Donovan’s ability to play either spot lets the Mariners take a flexible approach to their infield alignment. And if both players eventually force their way onto the roster, Donovan can split time between those two positions, the outfield corners and designated hitter.
While Seattle paid a steep price to acquire Donovan in terms of the talent they surrendered, they’re getting him for just $5.8MM this season and can control him through the 2027 campaign. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the two parties eventually talked extension. Donovan was open to a long-term deal in St. Louis even as the Cards embarked on a rebuild.
Time will tell whether he feels similarly about his new surroundings, but at the very least he doesn’t appear to be dead-set on testing free agency 18 months from now. Recent extensions for Tommy Edman and Ryan McMahon paid that pair of comparably aged infielders $70MM total; Donovan might command a bit more, but a five-year deal in that general range (beginning with next year’s final arbitration season) feels like something that could work for both sides, speculatively speaking.
Even if no extension comes to fruition, Donovan will be hitting at or near the top of a deep Mariners lineup for the next two seasons. He’s the sort of versatile, high-contact bat the Mariners coveted several years ago when trying to reshape their offensive identity after years of ranking at or near the top of the league in strikeouts. With Donovan (career 13.5% strikeout rate) and Naylor (career 16%) now helping to anchor the lineup, the M’s have a bit of a different feel than the all-or-nothing bunch to which we’d grown accustomed earlier this decade.
The Donovan trade may have been the Mariners “signature” trade of the offseason, but it wasn’t the only swap of consequence for Dipoto, Hollander & Co. One of the Mariners’ first moves post-Naylor was to address the lack of reliable left-handed relief in their bullpen, swinging a trade for Nationals southpaw Jose A. Ferrer. Many fans were shocked to see the Mariners part with top catching prospect Harry Ford to acquire a reliever, but Ford was blocked by Raleigh with no clear path to playing time in Seattle. That doesn’t mean he can be swapped out for any old bullpen arm, but what Ferrer lacks in name recognition he makes up for in extremely intriguing underlying numbers.
Ferrer’s 4.15 ERA over the past two seasons (4.48 in 2025) isn’t going to garner much attention. However, that mark came playing in front of a porous Nationals defense that rarely did the flamethrowing sinker specialist help. The 25-year-old Ferrer (26 next week) averages a blazing 97.7 mph on a sinker that’s helped him post a gargantuan 61% ground-ball rate dating back to 2024 — fifth highest in all of baseball (min. 100 innings pitched).
In 2025, Ferrer upped his strikeout rate from the prior year’s 19.4% to a nearly league-average 21.9%. His swinging-strike rate rose to a slightly above-average 11.5%. Ferrer has only walked 4.9% of his opponents the past two seasons. That blend of plus command and plus-plus ground-ball tendencies, coupled with even average bat-missing abilities (and a competent defense behind him) gives Ferrer immense breakout potential. Metrics like SIERA (2.97) and FIP (2.95) already feel he’s great, and the Mariners’ track record in coaxing breakouts from unheralded relievers (e.g. Paul Sewald, Gabe Speier, Drew Steckenrider, Justin Topa) shouldn’t be overlooked. Ferrer is controlled for four more seasons and has two minor league option years remaining. Adding him to a bullpen anchored by Andres Munoz and Matt Brash could make for a lethal trio.
Most of the remaining moves were more on the margins of the roster. Rob Refsnyder and his lifetime .281/.383/.443 line against lefties (.302/.399/.560 in 2025) gives manager Dan Wilson a big platoon bat to pair with lefty-swinging outfielder/designated hitter Dominic Canzone, who’s coming off a breakout .281/.358/.481 showing in 268 plate appearances. Canzone more than held his own against lefties, so he’ll still get some left-on-left looks, but all of his power was against righties. Only two of his 22 extra-base hits (one double, one homer) came versus southpaws.
Andrew Knizner was brought in on a moderately surprising big league deal to be the backup to Raleigh. He’s earning just $1MM, so it’s a minimal commitment if Knizner doesn’t pan out. He’s a career .211/.281/.316 hitter whose defensive marks have improved in a small sample over the past two seasons. Notably, he was one of the best catchers in Triple-A last year when it came to challenging pitches under the incoming ABS system, which could have factored into the decision. Catching depth in general was a priority though, as they also reunited with Mitch Garver on a minor league deal and picked up Jhonny Pereda from the Twins in a cash swap.
Assembling a deep collection of optionable arms also proved to be a priority this winter. The Mariners acquired a whopping six optionable young relievers via either small trades or waivers. The current big league bullpen doesn’t have much flexibility — Ferrer and Brash are the only optionable arms, and neither is being sent down anytime soon — so it’s possible something will shake loose later in camp with the Mariners moving on from an out of options arm like Casey Legumina. The Mariners added Yosver Zulueta, Josh Simpson, Cole Wilcox, Alex Hoppe and Robinson Ortiz via trade and claimed Ryan Loutos off waivers. They’ll have plenty of options to evaluate when injuries inevitably crop up among the more experienced members of the bullpen.
The starting pitching lacks that same level of depth, particularly after sixth starter Logan Evans suffered a UCL tear that’ll require season-ending surgery. The Mariners’ top quintet of Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, George Kirby, Luis Castillo and Bryce Miller is among the most talented in the game, but the top options behind him are now out-of-options swingman Cooper Criswell, former prospect Emerson Hancock (who’s struggled in the majors thus far) and non-roster veteran Dane Dunning. Finding an optionable rotation candidate or bringing in one more low-cost or non-roster veteran would arguably still be prudent, but even if they opt to do so, it’s not likely to be one of the top names available.
By and large, the Mariners’ heavy lifting is wrapped up. Naylor, Donovan and Ferrer are quality headline additions, but the M’s have done plenty of work to round out the margins of the roster with improved depth to position them for the rigors of a long season. They’ll head into 2026 as a popular pick to win their division at the very least, and better health from their top starters could make Seattle one of the favorites in the broader American League overall.
How would you grade the Mariners' offseason?
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B 52% (1,143)
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A 29% (639)
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C 14% (305)
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D 3% (60)
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F 2% (50)
Total votes: 2,197
Poll: Will Both Justin Crawford, Andrew Painter Break Camp With Phillies?
The Phillies mostly ran things back over the offseason. They re-signed Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto. Their only notable external acquisitions were Adolis García, Brad Keller and Jonathan Bowlan. They let Ranger Suárez and Harrison Bader walk while parting ways with Matt Strahm and Nick Castellanos.
It’s apparent the front office wanted to leave opportunities for two of their most talented young players to break into what is otherwise one of the older core groups in MLB. The door is open for both Justin Crawford and Andrew Painter to head north out of Spring Training. The 22-year-old prospects will look to cement their spots in camp.
Crawford is coming off a fantastic Triple-A season. He hit .334/.411/.452 while stealing 46 bases (albeit with 11 times caught). He walked in nearly 12% of his trips to the plate against a lower than average 18% strikeout rate. The lefty hitter only connected on seven home runs because his swing is geared to hit almost everything on the ground. While that caps his power potential, there’s no need to mess with the mechanics of a player who has hit .322 with a .385 on-base percentage in his minor league career.
Prospect evaluators had varying opinions on Crawford earlier in his minor league days. He was a first-round pick (and the son of a four-time All-Star), so he has certainly had his share of acclaim, but the unconventional offensive approach gave some scouts pause. It has played at every minor league stop, raising the confidence level that Crawford can continue to hit against the highest level arms.
Crawford probably would have made his big league debut late last season if the Phillies hadn’t acquired Bader. He enters Spring Training as the favorite to start in center field on Opening Day, pushing Brandon Marsh to left field. The Phillies could shield him from left-handed pitching on occasion but are planning for him to be a regular. “If you’re going to give Crawford an opportunity, you’ve got to give it to him, and that’s where we are,” president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said in December. “We’re going to give him an opportunity and have him play a lot.”
Philadelphia won’t officially make the decision until Opening Day. They’ve had Crawford as the starting center fielder alongside their other regulars in the first few Spring Training contests. He should win the job unless he suffers an injury during exhibition play. If he does or struggles badly enough in Spring Training that they reconsider that plan, they’d probably be looking at Johan Rojas and Marsh splitting center field work with a rotating group of corner bats in left.
Painter might have a little more work to do during camp. Zack Wheeler won’t be ready for the start of the season. That draws Painter into the fifth starter role behind Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo, Aaron Nola and Taijuan Walker. There are a few starters lingering on the free agent market (e.g. Lucas Giolito, Zack Littell, Max Scherzer). It’s early enough in camp that those pitchers could be ready for Opening Day if they sign within the next week or so. The Phillies have monitored the market for rotation depth, so an addition that pushes Painter back to Triple-A Lehigh Valley doesn’t seem out of the question.
Philadelphia’s rotation beyond their projected top six arms (Wheeler included) is thin. If they lose anyone else before Wheeler returns from his thoracic outlet procedure, they’d probably be pressed into using a minor league signee like Bryse Wilson or Tucker Davidson. There’s an argument for signing a Littell type and having Painter be their first man up in the event of an injury.
The 6’7″ righty also hasn’t mastered Triple-A competition the way that Crawford did last year. Painter made 22 starts and tossed 106 2/3 innings but struggled to a 5.40 earned run average with Lehigh Valley. He struck out an above-average 23.4% of opponents while walking just under 10% of batters faced. The stuff was quite good — a 97 mph average fastball headlining a five-pitch mix — but he was more susceptible to the home run ball than the Phils probably anticipated. While he remains one of the most talented pitching prospects in the sport, his seeming fast track to the majors was halted by Tommy John surgery that wiped out 2023-24 and last season’s uneven return.
Crawford and Painter meet the criteria for the Prospect Promotion Incentive. If the Phillies carry them for a full service year, they could each earn the team an extra draft choice if they play well enough to factor into awards consideration. They’d be on track to hit free agency after the 2031 season if they break camp and perform well enough to remain in the majors permanently. Keeping either player in the minors for a couple weeks would delay that by a year unless they finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year balloting.
Will both players be on the roster when the Phillies welcome Texas to Citizens Bank Park on March 26?
Will Justin Crawford and Andrew Painter break camp?
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Both players are on the Opening Day roster. 53% (1,262)
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Crawford breaks camp; Painter starts in the minors. 33% (794)
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Both players begin the season in the minors. 9% (212)
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Painter breaks camp; Crawford starts in the minors. 6% (133)
Total votes: 2,401
Poll: Who Will Be The Odd Man Out In The Reds’ Lineup?
The Reds were perhaps the most surprising playoff club of the 2025 season, as they managed to squeak into the third NL Wild Card spot with an 83-79 record. That return to the postseason came to an abrupt end when they were dispatched by the eventual World Champion Dodgers in the Wild Card round, but that didn’t stop them from making some upgrades to the team this winter. The return of veteran slugger Eugenio Suarez is surely the most impactful addition of the team’s offseason, but it also creates a bit of a logjam within the roster for their existing players. While Suarez is an impactful offensive addition coming off a 49-homer campaign, he’ll surely cut into the playing time of one of the club’s other regulars. That’s especially true given the addition of JJ Bleday to the club’s outfield mix, which effectively replaced the traded Gavin Lux on the roster.
While a reduction in playing time for the rest of the roster is inevitable, the Reds have enough positional flexibility on their roster that exactly how playing time will be divvied up remains an open question. With so many potential lineup configurations, who will end up getting the short end of the stick? There’s a few obvious players who won’t be losing playing time this year. Tyler Stephenson and Jose Trevino are more or less locked in as the club’s catching tandem. Shortstop Elly De La Cruz is a star and will surely be in the lineup every day as long as he’s healthy. TJ Friedl projects as the regular center fielder, and Suarez himself is sure to play everyday as long as he’s healthy.
For virtually every other player on the roster, however, it’s not impossible to imagine them getting squeezed out. Spencer Steer is perhaps the most established player among the rest of the roster, but even he doesn’t seem to be guaranteed everyday at-bats. That’s in part because he’s without a position. While he was a strong defensive first baseman for the Reds last year, his 97 wRC+ isn’t exactly the sort of impact one expects from that spot in the lineup. That could leave Steer handling any number of positions, as he’s at least passable when playing each of second base, third base, and the outfield corners in addition to first base and DH. That leaves the players at each of those positions (aside from Suarez) with a capable, if unspectacular player breathing down their necks in the hunt for playing time.
At first base, the Reds currently figure to utilize Sal Stewart. A consensus top prospect entering 2026, the rookie got an 18-game cup of coffee in the majors down the stretch last year and did everything one could’ve hoped for with the opportunity. He slashed .255/.293/.545 with five homers and a double in just 58 trips to the plate while managing to keep his strikeout rate at a reasonable 25.9%. He also succeeded when the lights were brightest, going 2-for-4 with a walk and four RBI against Los Angeles in the playoffs while the rest of the team struggled to produce. That’s enough that it should earn him a starting job, and he’s spent plenty of time at third and even second base in addition to first, offering some potential flexibility regarding where he’ll play. With that, said, if the rookie struggles at some point this year it wouldn’t be a shock to see him sent down to Triple-A, where the Reds could garner another year of team control over Stewart if he stays in the minors long enough.
While Stewart’s service time considerations could make Cincinnati a bit more willing to pull him out of the lineup than the rest of their players, that doesn’t mean the others are safe in their playing time. Ke’Bryan Hayes was the team’s most notable deadline addition last year, and his elite glove should mean that the Reds’ pitchers are consistently rooting for him to be in the lineup at third base on a regular basis. With that being said, Hayes is undoubtedly the weakest offensive player on the roster. While he flashed upside earlier in his career with the Pirates, he also hit just .235/.290/.306 (65 wRC+) last year after posting a 60 wRC+ the year prior. If Hayes can’t get his offensive production back into the 90 wRC+ range it sat in from 2021-2023, then it could be hard for the team to justify playing him regularly unless the rest of the lineup is mashing.
Hayes’s offensive woes also apply, at least to some extent, to Matt McLain. McLain appeared in 147 games last year after missing the entire 2024 season due to injury, and his results left a lot to be desired. He hit just .220/.300/.343 with a wRC+ of 77. While he turned in a solid 9.5% walk rate to save his overall slash line somewhat, the combination of a 28.5% strikeout rate and a .124 ISO simply isn’t going to cut it if he wants to be even an average big league hitter. McLain is a former top prospect who showed substantial upside in 2023 with a 129 wRC+ in 89 games, but his leash could wind up being somewhat short if he struggles, given that several other players on the team are capable of handling the keystone.
One such player is Noelvi Marte, who spent last season in right field but has been an infielder for most of his career. Marte had a disastrous 2024 season where he hit just .210/.248/.301 after returning from an 80-game PED suspension, but 2025 saw him take a step in the right direction as he posted a 101 wRC+ in 90 games despite losing two months to an oblique strain. Prior to that injury, Marte looked to be in the midst of a breakout, and while a brutal month of September put a damper on his overall season numbers, it’s not hard to see the 24-year-old taking another step forward this year. With that being said, a slump or two like the ones he suffered in 2024 and the second half of 2025 could conceivably leave Marte as the odd man out if the rest of the lineup is hitting.
One wild card with regards to playing time for the rest of the roster is Bleday. He’s more or less locked into the outfield corners defensively, and therefore can’t offer the sort of versatility virtually every other player here can. He’s also a questionable fit to be in the lineup against lefties, which inherently gives him a lower ceiling in terms of playing time than the rest of the roster. That might make him seem like the obvious pick to get the least playing time on the roster, but his lefty bat on a predominantly right-handed roster could prove extremely valuable. Additionally, Bleday is just one year removed from a solid season for the A’s where he posted a 120 wRC+ and 3.2 fWAR. Last year was tougher on him as he hit just .212/.294/.404, but if he can rediscover his 2024 form he could be one of the top hitters in the Reds’ entire lineup and earn a larger share of playing time than many of these players who have mostly shown league average or lower ability in recent years.
Who do you expect to ultimately draw the short end of the stick when it comes to playing time in Cincinnati this year? Will a young player like Stewart be sent down, or could someone like McLain or Marte struggle despite their former prospect pedigree? Will Hayes’s offense be too weak to justify his excellent defense, or will Bleday not hit enough to justify his middling outfield defense? Or, could the rest of the lineup work out so well that Steer finds himself in a utility role? Have your say in the poll below:
Which Reds player will get the fewest plate appearances in 2026?
Offseason In Review: Miami Marlins
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: the Marlins dipped a toe into free agency but didn’t commit to anything substantial. Their larger moves were trades of established pitchers for controllable young talent, as the team continues to chase the ever-elusive idea of a “sustainable,” cost-controlled core.
Major League Free Agent Signings
- Pete Fairbanks, RHP: One year, $13MM
- Chris Paddack, RHP: One year, $4MM
- Christopher Morel, INF/OF: One year, $2MM
- John King, LHP: One year, $1.5MM
- Total spending: $20.5MM
Trades and Waiver Claims
- Traded RHP Edward Cabrera to Cubs in exchange for OF Owen Caissie and minor league INFs Cristian Hernandez and Edgardo De Leon
- Traded LHP Ryan Weathers to Yankees in exchange for minor league OFs Dillon Lewis and Brendan Jones and minor league INFs Dylan Jasso and Juan Matheus
- Traded OF Dane Myers to Reds in exchange for minor league OF Ethan O’Donnell
- Traded INF Eric Wagaman to Twins in exchange for minor league RHP Kade Bragg
- Traded OF Victor Mesa Jr. to Rays in exchange for minor league INF Angel Brachi
- Traded LHP Josh Simpson to Mariners in exchange for cash
- Traded OF Joey Wiemer to Giants in exchange for cash
- Acquired OF Esteury Ruiz from Dodgers in exchange for minor league RHP Adriano Marrero
- Acquired RHP Bradley Blalock from Rockies in exchange for minor league RHP Jake Brooks
- Claimed RHP Garrett Acton off waivers from Rockies
- Claimed RHP Osvaldo Bido off waivers from Rays (later lost to Angels via waivers)
- Claimed RHP Zach Brzykcy off waivers from Nationals (later outrighted to Triple-A)
Minor League Signings
Extensions
- None yet (team has had discussions with OF Kyle Stowers and with OF Jakob Marsee)
Notable Losses
- Cabrera, Weathers, Myers, Wagaman, Mesa Jr., Simpson, Wiemer, Troy Johnston (claimed by Rockies), George Soriano (claimed by Orioles)
The Marlins closed out the 2025 season with a 56-50 record over the final four months of the year. That wasn’t enough to erase a poor start to the season, but Miami’s 79-83 record overall was good for a third-place finish in the National League East — a surprisingly strong result for a club whose biggest moves of the preceding offseason were trading away Jesus Luzardo and Jake Burger. Right-hander Cal Quantrill, who didn’t even finish the season on the roster due to his significant struggles, was the only veteran free agent addition for Miami last winter.
That strong four-month stretch ensured at least something of a different tone this winter, though the Marlins didn’t fully commit to pushing into a win-now mentality. The third offseason for president of baseball operations Peter Bendix and second for manager Clayton McCullough was punctuated by a handful of free agent pickups but also saw the Fish continue trading from their perennially strong collection of starting pitching depth.
Miami entered the offseason with needs at first base, in the bullpen and in the outfield. They were each addressed to varying extents, but in typical Marlins fashion, those solutions generally came in the form of low-budget transactions. Miami jumped early to bring slugger Christopher Morel into the fold after he was non-tendered by Bendix’s former Rays club. Bendix was the general manager in Tampa Bay, but he was out the door by the time the Cubs traded Morel to the Rays as part of the Isaac Paredes return in 2024. It stands to reason that the Rays’ interest in Morel dated back several years to when Bendix was their GM, and he’ll now get his hands on a player with big power but also alarming strikeout concerns and no true defensive home.
The Marlins are rolling the dice on Morel as their primary first baseman — a position he’s never played before. (Insert your “Tell ’em, Wash” jokes here.) Morel has huge pull-side power and comes to Miami on just a $2MM salary with three seasons of club control remaining. If they can coax a breakout, he’ll be a bargain for them, though it’s also fair to wonder whether he’d play out all three seasons with the perennially frugal Fish in that scenario. Tapping into that raw power and unlocking a full-fledged breakout would likely lead to substantial arbitration raises, so even if Morel can finally put it all together, his price tag down the road in 2028 might prove steep enough that Miami deals him before his final arbitration season.
While Morel was the first to sign, the Bendix-led Marlins made it clear early on that former Rays closer Pete Fairbanks was a target. Fairbanks’ $11MM club option being declined by Tampa Bay rated as at least a mild surprise, and he was met with robust interest early on. In the end, it was the Marlins who bid $13MM to install Fairbanks at the back of their ‘pen, giving McCullough the sort of established closer he lacked in 2025, when six Marlins players logged between three and 15 saves. It’s the largest one-year salary the Marlins have ever given to a reliever. Fairbanks will be able to remain in Florida and continue piling up saves in a pitcher-friendly setting, making it a sensible move for all parties.
Also joining the Miami pitching staff are right-hander Chris Paddack — a former Marlins prospect — and lefty John King. Paddack will step into the rotation on the heels of a career-high 158 innings pitched but also the second-worst ERA (5.35) of his seven-year run in the big leagues. The former top prospect’s brilliant 2019 debut with the Padres is a distant memory, but he’ll pitch all of 2026 at 30 years old and brings some of the best command in baseball (career 5.2% walk rate) to South Florida.
The 31-year-old King was a quality middle reliever for the Rangers and Cardinals from 2021-24 before a tough season in 2025. He has one of the game’s lowest strikeout rates among relievers but also boasts plus command and one of the top ground-ball rates in the sport: 61.8% over the past half decade. Southpaw Cade Gibson gave Miami a strong rookie showing out of the bullpen in 2025, but the only other left-handed relievers to make an appearance were Josh Simpson (7.34 ERA, 30 2/3 innings), Anthony Veneziano (4.71 ERA, 21 innings) and Patrick Monteverde (four runs in 3 2/3 innings). Veneziano is no longer with the organization. Simpson was designated for assignment and traded to the Mariners (for cash) after Miami signed King.
All of Miami’s free-agent additions were, in some way or another, buy-low acquisitions. Morel and King were non-tendered despite affordable arbitration projections. Fairbanks’ club option, which looked fairly reasonable, was declined (partly due to budget constraints for the Rays). Paddack was traded from Minnesota to Detroit at the deadline and quickly lost his rotation spot. He has a 5.23 ERA over the past three seasons. All four have traits on which Miami can dream — Morel’s power, Fairbanks’ velocity/strikeouts, King’s grounders, Paddack’s plus command/formerly plus changeup — but they’re all projects.
Beyond the level of aggression the Marlins would or wouldn’t show with respect to their veteran additions, the biggest question surrounding the club was whether they’d once again deal from their stock of talented young starters. As we’ve seen so often in the past, even under prior front office regimes, Miami isn’t afraid to deal away young arms, trusting in the development staff’s ability to continue to turn more out.
If you’d told most fans, pundits and even other teams at the end of the 2025 season that Miami would trade two starters, most would have assumed longtime ace Sandy Alcantara would be one of them. He had a rough year overall in his return from Tommy John surgery, but the former NL Cy Young winner finished strong and is heading into the final guaranteed season of a contract that guarantees him at least $19MM more ($17MM salary, $2MM buyout on a $21MM club option for 2027). That’s a reasonable price for most clubs but a steep one for the ever-cost-conscious Marlins.
Instead, it was 27-year-old righty Edward Cabrera — long rumored as a trade candidate in his own right — and 26-year-old southpaw Ryan Weathers. While many expected Cabrera to be a popular trade target this winter, the Weathers trade came somewhat out of the blue, given that he only made eight starts last year due to injury and had three years of club control remaining.
Weathers’ trade to the Yankees netted the Marlins a quartet of prospects, none of whom are expected to be immediate contributors. Outfielder Dillon Lewis was the most highly touted prospect in the swap but hasn’t even played in Double-A yet — nor has young infielder Juan Matheus. Outfielder Brendan Jones and infielder Dylan Jasso reached Double-A in 2025, but both will presumably require further development time in Triple-A.
Weathers originally came to the Fish in what’s now a clearly lopsided trade sending Garrett Cooper to the Padres — a swap put together by former general manager Kim Ng. That acquisition gave way to a 2024 breakout and enough promise in 2025’s limited sample for Bendix to cash in on a four-prospect package that deepens the Marlins’ position player pool.
The trade of Cabrera was both more expected and more consequential in terms of 2026 impact. While he was far from a lock to change hands, Cabrera has been discussed frequently in recent years. Interest in the former top prospect’s electric arsenal has been widespread, and his 2025 breakout was enough to push it over the top. There are big durability concerns with the 6’5″ flamethrower, but Cabrera’s 3.53 ERA, 25.8% strikeout rate, career-best 8.3% walk rate, 97 mph average heater, 12.6% swinging-strike rate and three remaining years of club control pushed the Cubs to part with a three-prospect package headlined by Owen Caissie, who’s now the favorite to break camp as Miami’s right fielder.
Caissie, 23, is a 2020 second-rounder who has spent several seasons ranked among baseball’s top-100 prospects but had no clear path to regular at-bats at Wrigley Field (at least not this year). He’s a three-true-outcomes lefty slugger with a big arm — a prototypical right field mold whom the Marlins hope can pair with 2025 breakout bopper Kyle Stowers to give the Fish some genuine middle-of-the-order thunder for the foreseeable future.
Caissie mashed at a .286/.386/.551 rate and popped 22 homers in only 99 Triple-A games, but he also fanned in 28% of his Triple-A plate appearances (against a 13.2% walk rate). The Marlins also added minor league infielders Cristian Hernández and Edgardo De Leon in that swap, but they’re both down-the-road considerations; Hernández hasn’t played above A-ball, and De Leon is only 19. Caissie is the headliner, and he gives the Fish a potential lineup cornerstone with six full seasons of club control and two minor league option years remaining. In Caissie, Stowers and center fielder Jakob Marsee (.292/.363/.478 in 55 games as a rookie), Miami has the makings of an excellent young outfield — no small feat considering the years of turnover they underwent on the grass prior to the arrival of this trio.
Most of Miami’s other dealings centered around role players. Dane Myers is a solid fourth outfielder who runs well, but he’s entering his final minor league option year and was shipped to the Reds for minor league outfielder Ethan O’Donnell, who’s not yet on the 40-man roster. Another fourth outfield option, Victor Mesa Jr., went to the Rays for lottery ticket teenage infielder Angel Brachi. Utilityman Eric Wagaman was traded to the Twins for minor league reliever Kade Bragg, who could make his debut at some point in 2026 — a nice bit of business considering Wagaman was a minor league free agent who signed a big league deal with Miami last winter.
In addition to selling off that trio of role players, the Marlins brought in some depth pieces by acquiring righty Bradley Blalock from the Rockies and speedster Esteury Ruiz from the Dodgers. Blalock replenishes a bit of rotation depth. He’s coming off a brutal year in the Rockies organization but had some decent results in the minors with the Brewers before that. Ruiz is in his final minor league option year and offers more speed than Myers. He could fill a similar fourth outfield role.
Setting aside the trades of Cabrera and Weathers as well as the signing of Fairbanks, most of Miami’s moves amount to tinkering around the margins. The 2026 season will be pivotal to determining their identity. They’ll see if a combination of Morel, Graham Pauley and Connor Norby can handle the infield corners. The middle infield is set for now with defensive standout Otto Lopez at shortstop and exciting leadoff man Xavier Edwards at second base. Stowers, Marsee and Caissie are the outfield hopefuls. Former top prospect Agustin Ramirez will try to improve behind the plate, but top-100 prospect Joe Mack is nipping at his heels in Triple-A, so Ramirez could eventually move to more of a first base/designated hitter/third catcher role.
On the pitching side, it’ll be Alcantara, Eury Pérez and the veteran Paddack, with former top prospects Max Meyer and Braxton Garrett returning from injury-lost seasons. Miami has two of the game’s top-ranked pitching prospects in Thomas White and Robby Snelling. Both could debut in 2026. Former prospects Dax Fulton and Adam Mazur are both still on the 40-man roster and have minor league options remaining, which gives the Fish some more depth. The bullpen already lost Ronny Henriquez to Tommy John surgery in December, but Fairbanks and King join holdovers like Gibson, Calvin Faucher and Anthony Bender to form a decent nucleus. If any of Meyer, Garrett, Fulton or Mazur don’t pan out as starters, they could shift there.
The Marlins thinned out their rotation but did so by shipping out a pair of starters who had durability issues — an all-too-common problem that seems to regularly plague their always impressive groups of young arms. Alcantara’s name could come up as a summer trade candidate, but if Miami is contending he’s not likely to go anywhere. The thought of a rotation including Alcantara, Pérez, White and Snelling is tantalizing regardless of who the fifth option would be.
Miami has the feel of an up-and-coming team, but it’s hard not to wonder what they’d look like with even a shred of payroll support from ownership. They’re currently projected to spend about $73MM on the 2026 payroll — a basement-level mark even by their standards and one of the lowest figures in the league. A bit more money on the bullpen or the infield could’ve made this club all the more compelling, and with only $83MM of luxury-tax obligations on the books, they’re running the risk of a grievance regarding the allocation of the reported $70MM or so of revenue-sharing funds they receive. Extensions for Marsee and/or Stowers — they’ve broached the subject with both young outfielders — could mitigate some of those concerns, but as MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows, Alcantara’s five-year, $56MM deal is the only extension of five or more years the Fish have given out in the past decade. It’s hard to imagine them going to the lengths necessary to sign one of their young outfielders for the long haul.
How would MLBTR readers grade the Marlins’ offseason? Have your say in the poll below:
How would you grade the Marlins' offseason?
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C 38% (510)
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B 27% (366)
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D 22% (288)
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F 9% (122)
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A 4% (51)
Total votes: 1,337
Offseason In Review: Colorado Rockies
The Rockies went outside the box with one of the more fascinating executive hirings in recent memory. The top baseball operations duo of Paul DePodesta and Josh Byrnes have their work cut out for them. It’s not going to be fixed in one offseason, but they made a handful of lower-cost additions to raise the floor after losing 119 games.
Major League Signings
- 2B/3B/OF Willi Castro, Two years, $12.8MM
- RHP Michael Lorenzen, One year, $8MM (including buyout of ’27 club option)
- LHP Jose Quintana: One year, $6MM
- RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: One year, $5.1MM
2026 spending: $25.25MM
Total spending: $31.9MM
Trades and Claims
- Claimed RHP Garrett Acton off waivers from Rays (later lost on release waivers to Marlins)
- Claimed 1B Troy Johnston off waivers from Marlins
- Acquired LHP Brennan Bernardino from Red Sox for minor league OF Braiden Ward
- Traded LHP Ryan Rolison to Braves for cash
- Selected RHP RJ Petit from Tigers with No. 1 pick in Rule 5 draft
- Claimed RHP Keegan Thompson off waivers from Reds
- Acquired OF Jake McCarthy from Diamondbacks for minor league RHP Josh Grosz
- Traded RHP Bradley Blalock to Marlins for minor league RHP Jake Brooks
- Traded RHP Angel Chivilli to Yankees for minor league 1B T.J.Rumfield
- Acquired 1B/2B Edouard Julien and RHP Pierson Ohl from Twins for minor league RHP Jace Kaminska and cash
Option Decisions
- Team declined its end of $7MM mutual option on 2B Thairo Estrada in favor of $750K buyout
- Team declined its end of $4MM mutual option on 2B Kyle Farmer in favor of $750K buyout
Notable Minor League Signings
- Drew Avans, Valente Bellozo, John Brebbia, Eiberson Castellano, Adam Laskey, Nicky Lopez, Vimael Machín, Kyle McCann, Parker Mushinski, Chad Stevens, Brett Sullivan
Extensions
- None
Notable Losses
- Germán Márquez, Thairo Estrada, Michael Toglia (non-tender), Kyle Farmer, Angel Chivilli, Bradley Blalock, Ryan Rolison, Orlando Arcia, Yanquiel Fernández (lost on waivers), Drew Romo (lost on waivers), Anthony Molina (lost on waivers), Dugan Darnell (lost on waivers), Warming Bernabel, Roansy Contreras, Aaron Schunk, Lucas Gilbreath
As the Rockies were playing out the string on one of the worst seasons in baseball history, it was evident significant changes were coming. The Rox had already fired manager Bud Black early in the year, tabbing Warren Schaeffer as an interim replacement. Speculation about general manager Bill Schmidt’s job security mounted by the end of the regular season.
The Rox announced at the beginning of the playoffs that Schmidt was out. The team framed it as a mutual decision, though reporting suggested the GM was fired. In either case, owner Dick Monfort said he planned to go outside the organization for the next baseball operations leader. Schmidt and Jeff Bridich had been internal promotions and did not pan out. Assistant GM Zack Rosenthal resigned once it became apparent that he wasn’t under consideration for the top role.
Colorado interviewed a handful of traditional candidates: Royals assistant GM Scott Sharp, Blue Jays vice president of baseball strategy James Click, D-Backs AGM Amiel Sawdaye, and Guardians AGM Matt Forman among them. They’d seemingly narrowed the decision to Forman and Sawdaye by Halloween but reopened the search at that point. Sawdaye and Forman reportedly each withdrew from consideration toward the end of the process.
It left the Rockies in an awkward spot of beginning the offseason with no clear head of baseball operations. They made a couple option formalities in buying out Thairo Estrada and Kyle Farmer and even placed a few waiver claims (Garrett Acton, Troy Johnston) while a committee of holdovers ran operations.
As the GM Meetings approached in the second week of November, the Rockies made a stunning hire. They tabbed former Dodgers general manager Paul DePodesta as their president of baseball operations. DePodesta, best known for his role as Billy Beane’s top lieutenant during the Moneyball era, last ran an MLB front office 20 years ago. He had been out of baseball altogether since 2016, spending the past decade in the NFL with the Cleveland Browns.
It’s much too early to judge how DePodesta’s newest role will turn out. The Rockies have been too insular throughout Monfort’s ownership tenure but certainly can’t be accused of that with the DePodesta hiring. Maybe that’s an inevitability after an historically inept season.
It could also be a hint of a changing of the guard at the top of the organization. Although Dick Monfort remains the ownership head, he has voiced a desire to offload some of the daily responsibility to his son, Walker (who was promoted to team president last summer). Dick Monfort is one of the leading ownership figures on the labor side — he’s generally perceived as one of the more stringent advocates for a salary cap — and wanted to focus more attention on the upcoming collective bargaining negotiations.
Although DePodesta would do a fair bit of work reshaping the back of the roster, his immediate priority was on staffing. He tabbed longtime Dodgers executive (and former Padres GM) Josh Byrnes as his general manager, the No. 2 in baseball operations. The two have roots together dating back to their days in Cleveland’s front office in the late 1990s.
The Rockies also decided right away to remove the interim tag and allow Schaeffer to continue on as manager. One could read that as the kind of loyalty which has burned the organization in the past, but it’s more defensible in this case. The roster is nowhere close to competitive no matter who’s managing. As long as the Rox were comfortable with Schaeffer’s connections to young players, they might as well see if he’s the right person to lead them through the rebuild.
Schaeffer did overhaul much of the coaching staff that he had inherited from Black. They tabbed first-year hitting and pitching coaches (Brett Pill and Alon Leichman, respectively). Jeff Pickler gets his first bench coaching position.
Figuring out the pitching staff is the biggest challenge. Playing at Coors Field does them no favors, but last year’s staff was largely bereft of talent no matter the park. Colorado pitchers had the highest earned run average and lowest strikeout rate in MLB both at home and on the road. The rotation’s 6.65 ERA was the highest in any full season in MLB history. The bullpen’s 5.18 mark wasn’t historically terrible but ranked 29th in the majors.
The front office has sought to raise the floor with a handful of veteran additions. Michael Lorenzen, Jose Quintana and Tomoyuki Sugano all came aboard on one-year deals between $5.1MM and $8MM. They’re low-ceiling additions, but the Rockies weren’t going to convince high-upside arms to take a pillow contract at Coors Field.
There’s a commonality between all three of their free agent acquisitions. Although none miss bats at high levels, they all mix 5-7 pitches with regularity. That’s probably not a coincidence. “We want big arsenals. We think big arsenals will be harder to game plan against,” Leichman told Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post. “You know, if a guy has six, seven pitches, that’s harder to game plan for than if a guy has two or three, right? So we think that’s an advantage. The more weapons you have, the more random you can be.”
The trio will at least provide innings in the first half of the season. They’re not going to be big trade candidates, but it’s possible one or two of them will pitch well enough to net a low-level prospect in July. Colorado released Austin Gomber midseason and let Germán Márquez walk via free agency. They kicked Antonio Senzatela to long relief at the end of last year. With the exception of Kyle Freeland, they’ve mostly moved on from their previous rotation core.
Freeland, Lorenzen, Quintana and Sugano should comprise four-fifths of the Opening Day rotation. Chase Dollander and Ryan Feltner are the top options for the final spot. The Rox are expected to build righty Jimmy Herget up as a potential starter this spring, though it’s likelier he winds up back in the bullpen. Prospects Gabriel Hughes and Sean Sullivan could debut midseason.
Colorado didn’t invest much in the bullpen. They made a few low-cost additions to the middle relief group. DePodesta’s first trade brought in 34-year-old lefty Brennan Bernardino from the Red Sox. They grabbed out-of-options righty Keegan Thompson off waivers from the Reds, who had signed him to a split contract just a few weeks earlier. The Rox had the top pick in the Rule 5 draft and used it on right-hander RJ Petit, who posted a 2.44 ERA with a near-30% strikeout rate in 47 appearances in the Detroit system last year. He’ll have a strong chance to break camp.
The higher-leverage bullpen arms are returnees. Seth Halvorsen, Victor Vodnik and Juan Mejia are controllable power arms with spotty command. They have a better chance of netting a meaningful trade return than do any of the fifth/sixth starter free agent signings, so they’re probably the bigger projects for the new pitching coaches.
Angel Chivilli also has big stuff but hasn’t found any success over his first two seasons. The Yankees placed a bet on the arm, acquiring Chivilli in a one-for-one swap for minor league first baseman T.J.Rumfield. The lefty-hitting Rumfield is coming off a .285/.378/.477 showing with 16 homers over a full season in Triple-A. He’s soon to turn 26 and doesn’t have much to gain from another look at minor league pitching.
Rumfield isn’t exactly a prospect. The Yankees left him unprotected in the Rule 5 draft. Every team, Colorado included, passed on the chance to acquire him for $100K. The Rockies instead parted with Chivilli to add him without the roster restrictions associated with a Rule 5 pick. Even if Rumfield breaks camp, the Rockies can option him to Triple-A, which would not have been the case had he been a Rule 5 selection.
There’s a good opportunity for the Virginia Tech product to win the first base job. The Rockies non-tendered Michael Toglia, one of far too many first-round misses in recent years. They claimed 28-year-old Troy Johnston off waivers from Miami. He’s likely competing with Blaine Crim and Rumfield in Spring Training.
Trade acquisition Edouard Julien could factor into the first base mix as well. Colorado acquired the left-handed hitter alongside swingman Pierson Ohl in a trade with Minnesota. (Ohl had a decent chance to win a long relief job but blew out this spring and is headed for Tommy John surgery.) Julien works a lot of walks and showed intriguing power upside as a rookie back in 2023, but concerning levels of swing-and-miss pushed him to the fringe of the Twins roster. He’s a decent flier for a rebuilding team that was thin on upper-level infield depth.
Julien has spent the majority of his career at second base. He’s not a good defender anywhere and probably better suited at first or designated hitter. If the Rockies prefer him at first base, that’d leave open the keystone for Adael Amador, minor league signee, Nicky Lopez or utilityman Willi Castro.
Castro signed a two-year, $12.8MM contract — Colorado’s first multi-year free agent deal since the unfortunate Kris Bryant signing. Castro had two and a half seasons as a quality bat-first utility piece in Minnesota. His numbers tanked after a deadline trade to the Cubs. That didn’t dissuade the Rox from making a multi-year commitment. He’s a respected clubhouse presence and can move between second and third base depending on what the Rockies get out of Julien, Amador, Tyler Freeman, Ryan Ritter and Kyle Karros at those respective positions. He also has some outfield experience.
Even with Castro and Julien in the fold, this is probably the worst infield in MLB. The only player locked into an everyday spot on the dirt is Ezequiel Tovar at shortstop. He’s looking to rebound after a down year in which he was hampered by hip and oblique issues.
Bryant remains on the roster, but it’s impossible to know when or if he’ll be physically able to return to the field. The former MVP has been forthright about a degenerative back condition impacting his daily life. He was immediately placed on the 60-day injured list and has no timetable for a return. Bryant isn’t going to retire and walk away from the remaining three years and $78MM on his contract. He continues to express hope that he’ll be able to play again.
The Bryant signing was ill-advised for a Colorado team that should have already been rebuilding, but no one would have foreseen things going this poorly. It’s far from the only reason that things have gotten so bleak, yet it remains the biggest misfire for an organization that has had few success stories in recent years.
The biggest exception is behind the plate. Hunter Goodman was maybe the only unequivocal bright spot in 2025. He hit 31 homers, tied for second among catchers, with a .278/.323/.520 batting line to earn his first All-Star nod. Goodman didn’t come up in any substantive trade rumors, though that’s surely not because of a lack of interest from other clubs. The Rockies control him for four seasons.
This is the kind of player the organization has been eager to extend in recent years, usually at a time when it feels like buying high. They could look into that possibility this spring, with Goodman potentially looking for something in the $40-50MM range if he’s signing away a free agent season or two. The Rockies are probably better off waiting to see if he can repeat last year’s breakout since his aggressive approach and massive whiff rates leave him with a low floor from an on-base perspective.
Goodman will get the majority of the playing time behind the dish. Braxton Fulford is the only other catcher on the 40-man roster, so he’s the favorite for the backup job. Fulford struggled as a 26-year-old rookie. The door is open for minor league signees Brett Sullivan or Kyle McCann to beat him out in camp.
Colorado moved on from former supplemental first-round pick Drew Romo this offseason. They also parted ways with former high picks or notable prospects like Toglia, Ryan Rolison and Yanquiel Fernández. That’s emblematic of how little they’ve gotten from the farm system in recent years despite frequently picking at the top of the draft.
Another former top-10 pick, Zac Veen, is trying to play his way into the outfield mix this spring. Brenton Doyle is locked into center field. The corners are more open, but they have a handful of options. Jordan Beck, Mickey Moniak and prospect Sterlin Thompson are in-house possibilities.
DePodesta expressed openness to trading an outfielder for pitching depth, but their only move went in the opposite direction. They dealt minor league righty Josh Grosz to Arizona for out-of-options fourth outfielder Jake McCarthy. McCarthy is a contact-oriented hitter who can steal bases but has alternated solid and terrible years at the plate. Although he and Julien couldn’t be more different stylistically, it’s a similar roll of the dice on a fringe roster player who has had intermittent big league success.
Those will be the kinds of moves the Rockies will make for the next few years. This isn’t going to be a good team for quite some time. They’re probably headed for another 100-loss season, though their moves on the margins should keep them from repeating last year’s level of futility. The success of this offseason will hinge much more on the front office hires than any of the tinkering with MLB’s worst team.
How would you grade the Rockies' offseason?
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C 30% (560)
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D 29% (547)
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F 24% (438)
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B 12% (218)
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A 5% (94)
Total votes: 1,857
Finding A First Baseman In Colorado
The Rockies made a pair of additions in the first base department in late January. The club added Edouard Julien in a trade with the Twins, then picked up T.J. Rumfield in a deal with the Yankees. Even after bringing in two first base options in one day, president of baseball operations Paul DePodesta didn’t close the door on more acquisitions at the position.
Colorado’s first basemen ranked 29th in OPS last season. Michael Toglia “led” the way with a .592 mark in 329 plate appearances. The former first-round pick opened the season as the everyday starter. Toglia struck out nearly 40% of the time through two months and found himself back in Triple-A before the end of May.
Warming Bernabel looked like a possible answer after a ridiculous start to his career. The 23-year-old piled up 14 hits, including three home runs, in his first seven games. It went downhill pretty quickly from there. Bernabel finished the year with a 78 wRC+ and was outrighted off the roster in December.
No other Colorado bat reached 60 plate appearances at first base. A hodgepodge of Kyle Farmer, Orlando Arcia, Keston Hiura, and Blaine Crim filled in after Toglia was sent down. Crim is the only one of the group still on the roster (more on him in a bit). Here’s a rundown of the Rockies’ options at the position…
A waiver claim is the leading candidate to occupy the first base role, which might say something about the position battle. Johnston was scooped from the Marlins in early November. The move came shortly before DePodesta was announced as the new top executive, so it’s unclear who actually executed it.
Johnston was solid in his first foray into the big leagues, posting a 109 wRC+ across 121 plate appearances last season. While he’s often been old for each level, the 28-year-old also has a strong minor league track record. Johnston slashed .307/.399/.549 in 134 games between Double-A and Triple-A in 2023. He’s put up 23 home runs and 48 steals at Triple-A the past two years.
Blaine Crim
The 28-year-old Crim should at least be the right-handed complement to Johnston to begin the season. He went 0-for-11 with the Rangers last year, but found some success with Colorado after getting claimed off waivers. Crim popped five home runs in 15 games with the Rockies. The power production also came with a 36.1% strikeout rate.
Crim has taken a similar path to Johnston. He’s put up solid minor league numbers across multiple seasons, but has typically been older than the competition. Crim hit .284 with 18 home runs over 83 games at Triple-A last year before leaving the Rangers’ organization. He wasn’t nearly as productive in the minors with Colorado, though.
T.J. Rumfield
Julien is likely ticketed for the second base job, but the other aforementioned trade acquisition could factor into this race. Colorado sent reliever Angel Chivilli to New York in exchange for Rumfield. The 25-year-old slashed .285/.378/.447 at Triple-A in 2025. He’s delivered a 116 wRC+ or better in both stints at the highest minor league level.
Rumfield has already compiled 252 games at Triple-A, so there isn’t much left for him to prove. He’s in MLB camp as a non-roster invitee. A decent spring would go a long way toward challenging for a roster spot.
The third overall pick in the 2024 draft will likely have this job someday, but it might not be as soon as Rockies fans would want. The 22-year-old maxed out at Double-A in his first full professional season. He put up a 132 wRC+ at the level, so it’s hard to argue with the production, though some time spent in Triple-A is likely on the horizon.
Condon had an .820 OPS at three minor league stops last season, but the 70-grade power hasn’t shown up just yet. He finished with 14 home runs in 433 plate appearances last year.
A Free Agent Signing
DePodesta didn’t rule out another addition, and a handful of veterans remain available. Assuming the left-handed Johnston has at least a platoon role, that rules out Rowdy Tellez. Wilmer Flores, Rhys Hoskins, and Donovan Solano are right-handed options who could be had for a reasonable price. The 41-year-old Justin Turner probably won’t be signing up for part-time work on a rebuilding team.
Photo courtesy of Ron Chenoy, Imagn Images
Three Starting Pitchers Looking To Bounce Back In 2026
Many teams added to their rotations this offseason. Some opted to raise their ceiling by signing big-name free agents. The Blue Jays brought in Dylan Cease, the Red Sox signed Ranger Suarez, and the Tigers added Framber Valdez, to name a few. Others tried to maintain their floor by retaining existing starters and acquiring depth. The Padres fit the latter mold, as they brought in Griffin Canning, Germán Márquez, and Walker Buehler on low-cost deals this week.
While starting pitchers aren’t quite as volatile as relievers, injuries and underperformance still led many to post tough seasons in 2025. Tonight, we take a look at three bounce-back candidates: a top free agent, a veteran starter, and a minor-league signing.
Top Free Agent: Zac Gallen
Gallen has been a front-of-the-rotation arm at his best. From 2022-23, he posted a 3.04 ERA in 394 innings for the Diamondbacks. He struck out 26.4% of hitters in that span and ranked eighth among qualified starters with a 20.4% K-BB rate. His 9.3 fWAR ranked sixth ahead of Giants ace Logan Webb. Entering his age-28 season in 2024, there was reason to believe Gallen would continue to pitch at his prime level.
His numbers that year were still solid, if a step down from ace territory. Gallen missed a month with a right hamstring strain but still made 28 starts with a 3.65 ERA. He actually upped his groundball rate from 41.8% in 2023 to 46.2% in 2024. That said, his strikeout and walk rates both trended in the wrong direction, the latter now closer to average after two years of excellent control. Gallen slipped further in 2025. Though he stayed healthy and covered 192 innings in 33 starts, his ERA jumped to a career-high 4.83, his first below-average mark since 2021. The strikeouts slipped further to 21.5%, while his expected stats (4.28 xERA) suggest he was better than the surface numbers, but not by much.
Gallen entered the offseason as a buy-low candidate, as far as former aces go. We at MLBTR projected him for a four-year, $80MM contract even after his down year. In the end, his market didn’t develop as hoped. Gallen settled for a one-year, $22.025MM reunion with Arizona that nominally matched the value of the team’s qualifying offer in November.
Obviously, the team would love to see him return to his 2022-23 form. At the very least, Gallen figures to provide 30 starts of mid-rotation production, though he’ll undoubtedly aim for more in hopes of securing a multi-year contract next time around. The key for Gallen will be refining his breaking pitches, which graded out poorly in 2025 by Statcast’s run value metric. His curveball was worth 15 runs above average in 2024, but that fell to -4 this year, with opponents slugging over .200 more on the pitch. He’ll also look to bring up the strikeouts and keep the ball in the yard, having allowed the third-most home runs (31) of any qualified starter in 2025.
Veteran Starter: Sean Manaea
Manaea re-signed with the Mets on a three-year, $75MM deal during the 2024-25 offseason. At the time, he was coming off a strong 3.47 ERA in 181 2/3 innings in his return to full-time starting pitching (having mostly been a reliever for the Giants in 2023). With New York in 2024, Manaea struck hitters out at a 24.9% clip and did a decent job at keeping the ball in the yard compared to his career numbers. His .249 BABIP suggested he benefitted from good luck, but even so, he figured to provide solid, mid-rotation value on his new deal.
Unfortunately, his 2025 season was the exact opposite of his 2024. Manaea went down with a right oblique strain in March and missed the first three and a half months of the season. At one point, he experienced a setback when the team found loose bodies in his throwing elbow. Finally debuting on July 13, he made 15 appearances (12 starts) with a 5.64 ERA. Curiously, he posted that high ERA despite striking out a career-best 28.5% of hitters and walking a career-low 4.6%. Meanwhile, his expected stats (4.00 xERA and 3.30 xFIP) painted a much better picture than his surface-level numbers.
On the other hand, Manaea struggled badly with the long ball in 2025, allowing 13 in just 60 2/3 innings (1.93 HR/9). He also curiously ditched his sinker, which was worth 10 runs above average in 2024, to instead throw his four-seamer over 60% of the time. Opponents slugged .129 higher against the four-seamer compared to 2024, when he used it half as much. Manaea also upped his sweeper usage but saw diminished results, including a 9.6% drop in strikeout rate and a .148 increase in slugging.
Perhaps that was a mechanical problem. Manaea adopted a lower arm slot in 2024 and had a very productive second half. The combination of his oblique injury and further attempted mechanical adjustments may have contributed to his poor 2025 numbers, per Mets manager Carlos Mendoza (link via Alex Smith of SNY). The keys for him in 2026 will be regaining his pre-injury mechanics, differentiating the two fastballs like he did in 2024, and continuing to get chases on the sweeper.
Minor-League Signing: Walker Buehler
The current version of Buehler is far from the one who finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting in 2021. The now 31-year-old has pitched 266 1/3 innings since the end of that campaign. He missed all of 2023 while recovering from August 2022 Tommy John surgery. He returned for 16 starts in 2024, but the results were decidedly poor. Buehler struck out just 18.6% of hitters against an 8.1% walk rate and allowed nearly two home runs per nine innings. His once-vaunted four-seamer was now his least valuable pitch at 13 runs below average. Buehler pitched well in the postseason for the World Series-winning Dodgers, though. The Red Sox then took a chance on a one-year, $21.05MM deal.
Unfortunately, 2025 was not kind to him either. Buehler pitched 126 innings in 26 appearances (24 starts) with a 4.93 ERA. His velocity was down on every pitch except his slider. His strikeout rate fell to just 16.3%, while his 5.5% K-BB rate was fifth-worst among starters with at least 100 innings pitched. Boston released him at the end of August. Though he did alright in a small sample with the Phillies after that, it was clear that Buehler wouldn’t do nearly as well on the market this time around.
Now competing for a back-of-the-rotation spot in San Diego, Buehler will have to work hard to regain some value. He could start with adjusting his pitch mix. He has already steadily decreased his four-seam usage as it continues to lose velocity. Meanwhile, Buehler’s sinker was well-regarded by Statcast in 2025, grading out as 6 runs above average. Making the sinker his primary fastball might help him evolve into a soft-contact, groundball pitcher. His hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity were in the 70th percentile or better in 2025, so building on that might be his best path to prolonging his career.
Photo courtesy of Benny Sieu, Imagn Images
Which Team Will Sign Max Scherzer?
When we last saw Max Scherzer, he was walking off the mound in Game 7 of the World Series. The future Hall of Famer had held the Dodgers to one run on four hits across 4 1/3 innings and left the game holding a 3-1 lead. It may not have been a vintage performance, but the three-time Cy Young winner did his job. The bullpen just didn’t hold the lead.
While Scherzer ended the year on a high note, his lone season in Toronto was a frustrating one. The nerve issue that has led to soreness in his thumb over the past few seasons returned early in 2025. He landed on the injured list after his first start and was sidelined into late June. Scherzer was healthy enough after that but didn’t have a great season. He only managed six quality starts among his 17 appearances. His 5.19 earned run average over 85 innings was the highest of his career.
Scherzer’s strikeout and walk rates remain solid. He punched out 23% of opponents while walking around 6% for the second consecutive season. Both marks are a little better than the respective league averages for a starter. The issue is the damage hitters have done when they make contact. Scherzer allowed more than two home runs per nine innings for the first time in his career. It was the fourth-highest homer rate in MLB among pitchers who threw 70+ innings.
As the stuff has backed up with age and the injuries, Scherzer had a tougher time getting opponents to go after pitches outside the strike zone. He had to challenge them in the heart of the plate more often to compensate, and he’s doing so without the overpowering arsenal he had in his prime. That’s going to lead to some home run trouble.
All that said, Scherzer still attacks the strike zone with a four-pitch mix. His four-seam fastball averaged 93.6 mph last season, well below peak but a tick above where it sat when he posted a 3.95 ERA over eight starts for the Rangers in 2024. He finished the year healthy, would bring a wealth of experience to younger members of a pitching staff, and has a 3.78 ERA over 33 career playoff appearances. There’s still a role for Scherzer in an MLB rotation somewhere.
The 41-year-old has already said he’s not retiring. He hasn’t fully committed to signing before Opening Day, however. In late January, Scherzer told Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic that while he’s open to signing at any time, he was willing to wait into the regular season to sign with one of the teams he prefers. It seems safe to assume he’s going to pick a team he views as a legitimate World Series contender.
Where might Scherzer end up? A return to the Blue Jays could make sense with Shane Bieber opening the season on the injured list. Toronto still has a five-man rotation of Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, José Berríos and Cody Ponce with Eric Lauer around in long relief. Adding to the rotation isn’t a necessity, but bringing Scherzer back would allow them to use a six-man rotation to monitor Yesavage’s workload in the early going.
The Braves entered the spring with lackluster rotation depth and have been hit with injuries to Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep since camp got underway. The Phillies will be without Zack Wheeler to begin the year and are likely counting on both Taijuan Walker and prospect Andrew Painter for season-opening roles.
The Twins are probably losing Pablo López for the season; are they competitive enough for Scherzer to consider signing there? Texas has Kumar Rocker and Jacob Latz competing for the fifth starter role, but Scherzer’s probably out of the price range. The Yankees are awaiting the returns of Carlos Rodón and Gerrit Cole. Projected fourth and fifth starters Ryan Weathers and Luis Gil have minor league options remaining and concerning injury histories.
Where do MLBTR readers expect Scherzer to land?
Where will Max Scherzer sign?
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Braves 14% (831)
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Blue Jays 14% (803)
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Giants 7% (426)
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Tigers 6% (373)
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Phillies 5% (310)
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Yankees 5% (290)
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Cardinals 4% (243)
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Orioles 4% (227)
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Padres 3% (184)
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Rockies 3% (182)
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Cubs 3% (175)
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Twins 3% (157)
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Dodgers 2% (140)
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Mets 2% (139)
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Angels 2% (126)
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Pirates 2% (124)
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Red Sox 2% (122)
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Brewers 2% (116)
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Nationals 2% (112)
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White Sox 2% (90)
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Mariners 2% (90)
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A's 1% (86)
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Diamondbacks 1% (82)
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Astros 1% (80)
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Rangers 1% (73)
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Guardians 1% (69)
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Reds 1% (59)
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Royals 1% (43)
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Rays 1% (41)
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Marlins 0% (16)
Total votes: 5,809
