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Which Of These Free Agents Will Get Four-Year Deals?

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Last offseason, 14 players received free agent contracts of four or more years, excluding international signings.  Some of the borderline guys, like Ben Zobrist and Darren O’Day, successfully obtained the guaranteed fourth year.  Others, such as Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy, were not able to get there, at least at an acceptable salary.  This winter, Cespedes and elite relievers Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen seem locks for four-plus years.  Everyone else, not so much.  Here are 13 cases to consider, and vote on:

  • Edwin Encarnacion, 34 years old in January.  Encarnacion is having a great season, sitting second in MLB with 36 home runs.  He’s hit 34+ home runs in each of the last five seasons.  His market will likely be limited to the American League, though there is precedent with Nelson Cruz’s four-year, $57MM deal.  Encarnacion is facing a lawsuit alleging he knowingly infected a woman with multiple STDs in February.
  • Ian Desmond, 31 in September.  Desmond has reinvented himself as the Rangers’ center fielder, though he has struggled offensively this month.
  • Jose Bautista, 36 in October.  Bautista recently finished his second DL stint of the year, and his production has been down this season.  He’s the oldest player in this poll.
  • Mark Trumbo, 31 in January.  Trumbo leads MLB with 40 home runs, but he also sports a .317 on-base percentage and has struggled on defense.
  • Wilson Ramos, turned 29 this month.  The Nationals’ catcher has age on his side, and is in the midst of a breakout season.
  • Justin Turner, 32 in November.  Zobrist signed his deal heading into his age-35 season, so surely his contract will be considered a precedent by Turner’s agent.  Turner has set a career-high with 24 home runs already, and is headed toward a career best in games played.
  • Neil Walker, 31 in September.  After being traded to the Mets in December, Walker is having the best season of his career.  Chase Headley’s four-year, $52MM deal with the Yankees in December 2014 suggests Walker can reach the same term.
  • Dexter Fowler, 31 in March.  Fowler ranks eighth in the NL with a .389 OBP, though a June hamstring injury may keep him shy of 130 games played for the third time in the last four years.
  • Michael Saunders, 30 in November.  Like Desmond, Saunders has re-established himself but scuffled in August.  As with a few others on this list, Saunders’ injury history will give teams pause.
  • Josh Reddick, 30 in February.  Reddick once seemed like a lock for four years, but he missed time earlier this year due to a broken thumb and has been terrible since joining the Dodgers in a deadline deal.  It’s fair to question whether four years will be on the table for him.
  • Mark Melancon, 32 in March.  Though not as dominant with strikeouts as Chapman and Jansen, Melancon has a 1.75 ERA in 272 innings since 2013, and he’s been great for the Nationals.  His agent will at least aim for four years.
  • Jeremy Hellickson, 30 in April.  Hellickson is one of the best free agent starters available this winter, and the weak market and his relative youth could theoretically push him to a four-year deal.
  • Ivan Nova, 30 in January.  Nova is a long shot for four years, but he’s been great since coming over to the Pirates, and teams can act irrationally in free agency.

Your turn: which of these free agents will get four or more years?  Check all that apply, and click here to view the results.  Those using our app or Safari on their cell phone can click here for the poll.

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Do Big Leaguers Have Favorite Teams?

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Burke Badenhop made his Major League debut on April 9, 2008 when he tossed a scoreless inning of relief for the Marlins. In the eight years that followed, he pitched 512 1/3 innings of 3.74 ERA ball with the Marlins, Rays, Brewers, Red Sox and Reds. He’s been a part of four trades (most notably the Miguel Cabrera/Dontrelle Willis blockbuster), tested Major League free agency and been in more than a dozen Major League and minor league clubhouses. We are thrilled to have Burke bring some of that unique perspective to MLB Trade Rumors. This is his third offering; he has recently written about the importance of September roster expansion and the experience of playing the spoiler.

From kindergarten through eighth grade I grew up in Greenville, North Carolina. Greenville is tucked away in the eastern part of the state, situated between Raleigh and the Atlantic Ocean. It’s home to lots of barbecue spots, tobacco fields, and East Carolina University. Despite North Carolina’s love affair with college basketball, baseball is big in Greenville. I grew up loving Little League Baseball and the Atlanta Braves.

My parents are both from Ohio and neither had too much of a rooting interest in one particular big league team. Even though the closest big league city to Greenville at the time was Baltimore, I didn’t consider cheering for a team from up north. Folks from Greenville definitely fancied themselves Southerners and Atlanta, not Baltimore, was a better fit. Throw in the convenience of watching every game on TBS and a Braves fan was born.

As it turns out, I picked a very opportunistic time to enter the fandom of my new team. In 1991, when I was eight years old, the Braves were in the midst of their ‘worst to first’ season. There was a lot to love as a kid about that Braves team. They had exciting young starting pitchers Steve Avery, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz. Their outfield had the speed of Otis Nixon, the power of Ron Gant and the all around amazing-ness of reigning NL Rookie of the Year David Justice. The middle infield featured scrappy fan favorites Rafael Belliard and Mark Lemke. They even had a guy, Deion Sanders, who played in the NFL! What more could a kid want?

Despite finishing in last place the year before, the Braves battled for supremacy in their division that summer with the Dodgers. My Dad and I would check the paper every morning hoping for a Dodger loss that would tighten the standings. We watched every game down the stretch as the Braves crept closer and closer to LA, finally overtaking them and clinching the division on the next to last day of the regular season.

If the drama of the regular season wasn’t enough for my eight-year-old nerves, the postseason surely put them to the test. The Braves would win the NLCS in seven games and faced the Minnesota Twins in what most people would argue was the greatest World Series of all time. Since I was only eight, I wasn’t allowed to stay up late and see the finish of each game. I’d typically watch until the fourth or fifth inning before heading to bed. To add to the intrigue, before he left for work the next morning, my dad would write the score to the game on my bathroom mirror with a bar of soap. Just like the NLCS, that World Series went seven games. I raced to my bathroom the morning after Game 7 and couldn’t believe what I saw. Braves-0 Twins-1 10 innings. A World Series was obviously what I had hoped for, but I think that loss truly made me love the Braves even more. From then on, I called the Braves mine. That commitment lasted, ironically, until other teams began calling me.

During my junior year of college major league organizations began to scout me. Even though I was never a potential top round pick, everything relating to baseball just kind of changed for me. The dynamic between the big leagues and myself now shifted from lifelong fan to potential player, something I didn’t count on happening. In college, ‘baseball’ meant a scholarship to help pay for school, but it was now a potential post collegiate career opportunity. Did I hope that the Braves would show a lot of interest and draft me? Of course I did. My head would have literally exploded. Unfortunately, they never showed that much interest and I would instead get excited if a new team would call or send a letter to my coach. I was no longer focused on the one team I grew up rooting for since I hoped to attract the interest of all thirty teams. As other teams’ interest grew, the Braves’ interest never materialized and I was okay with that.

I was eventually drafted by the Tigers after my senior year of college and was traded to the Marlins three years later. I broke into the big leagues in 2008 with the Marlins, a team that just so happens to play in the same division as my once-beloved Braves. My third career start in the big leagues was in Atlanta, against the Braves. It wasn’t pretty. I managed to last 5 innings, but gave up eight hits and six runs. I walked a batter, didn’t strike anyone out and gave up a two-run homer in the first inning to Chipper Jones on his birthday. It was a surreal feeling to lose a game to the team I grew up hoping would always win. The ‘tomahawk chop’ was no longer something I wanted any part of. Once I passed that initial encounter, though, the Braves were just another opponent and business continued as usual. My favorite team became the one that I was lucky enough to wear the uniform of and my favorite players were the ones I called teammates.

So do big leaguers have favorite teams? The answer is yes, just not the current version of that team. I’m not a Braves fan now and I definitely wasn’t a fan of them as they pummeled me around Turner Field that April evening in 2008, but I love the Braves I grew up with. It’s that love for my favorite team that inspired me to become a big leaguer in the first place.

MLBTR Originals

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Here’s the original analysis MLBTR has offered this week:

  • Former major league reliever Burke Badenhop turned in his second guest column with MLBTR, this time offering firsthand knowledge of how players whose teams are out of contention late in the season handle the stretch run. If you’re under the impression those players run for the bus, think again.
  • Jeff Todd highlighted eight soon-to-be arbitration-eligible hitters who are setting themselves up for significant raises during the upcoming offseason. As Jeff explained, the more plate appearances, home runs and runs batted in a hitter racks up, the better his chances are to do well in arbitration.
  • Steve Adams updated his list of the top 20 August trade candidates. Players dealt in September aren’t eligible to participate in the playoffs, so time is running out on teams to acquire possible October contributors.
  • With Diamondbacks chief baseball officer Tony La Russa and general manager Dave Stewart potentially on the chopping block, I polled readers on whether the club should give the much-maligned duo another chance.
  • In this week’s edition of “Knocking Down the Door,” Jason Martinez looked at five prospects – two starting pitchers, two outfielders and a catcher – trying to force their way to the majors.
  • Jeff forecast the futures of eight veterans – including Lucas Duda and Shelby Miller – who could be non-tender candidates during the offseason.

Top 20 Trade Candidates: August Edition

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It’s been a fairly quiet August in terms of trade activity, and only one member of the last iteration of this list, Jeff Francoeur, has been traded. However, some activations from the disabled list and hot performances and off-field incidents have altered the composition of our list.

  1. Kurt Suzuki, C, Twins: Suzuki somewhat surprisingly cleared waivers. He represents an offensive upgrade behind the plate over some teams’ starting catchers and certainly over the average backup catcher. His defense isn’t well-regarded, but the bat figures to be a nice perk for teams on the lookout for some improvement behind the dish. At $6MM this season ($1.2MM remaining), he’s affordable as well. Veteran backstops are popular August trade candidates — witness the recent deals for Carlos Ruiz and Dioner Navarro — so it wouldn’t be too surprising to see Suzuki move as well.
  2. Boone Logan, LHP, Rockies: Lefties are hitting a pitiful .148/.211/.250 this year against Logan, who is in the final season of a three-year, $16.5MM pact. The 32-year-old hasn’t lived up to the deal overall, but he has saved his best season for last, logging a 3.11 ERA with 10.8 K/9 against 3.8 BB/9 in 2016. Nary a day has passed late in the month of August in any recent season in which there haven’t been clubs clamoring for left-handed relief help. With the Rockies sitting 7.5 games out of a Wild Card spot, it may be time to get something back from that largely ill-fated free agent signing.
  3. Peter Bourjos, OF, Phillies: Plenty of clubs could be on the lookout for a fourth outfielder before month’s end, and Bourjos’ speed and defensive reputation should make him an appealing candidate. His ridiculous stretch at the plate in June/July wasn’t sustainable, but he’s hitting .235/.316/.382 since coming off the DL earlier this month and .251/.293/.384 on the season overall. With a $2MM base salary, he won’t break any club’s budget.
  4. Nick Markakis, OF, Braves: Markakis cleared waivers over the weekend despite the torrid stretch he’s on at the plate. Since the All-Star break, the 32-year-old looks like he did in his peak years last decade, as he’s slashing .315/.383/.473 with four homers and 11 doubles. The $22MM he’s owed after this season allowed him to clear, but a club looking for corner outfield help could look into Markakis if Atlanta is willing to eat some cash (and they have been in trades prior).
  5. Brian McCann, C, Yankees: Gary Sanchez is announcing his arrival with authority, leaving it looking like McCann’s days with the Yankees could be numbered. An offseason trade might be more likely, but McCann has already cleared waivers and if the Yankees are willing to eat some of the $34MM remaining on his contract after this season, he could make an appealing upgrade for teams in need of a starting catcher.
  6. Yasiel Puig, OF, Dodgers: The Dodgers reportedly aren’t desperate to move Puig, but the fact that some reports indicate he won’t even be a part of the team’s September roster strengthen the argument that the organization has soured on him. Puig is an enormous talent whose performance has declined and who comes with clear off-field questions, but his on-field upside should lead some clubs to wonder if they could straighten him out.
  7. Derek Norris, C, Padres: An offseason trade of Norris, or even a non-tender, is more likely given his dismal season at the plate. The Padres have clear motivation to shed his contract, not only for financial purposes but also to get more at-bats for Christian Bethancourt and Austin Hedges. That’s been true for awhile, though, and Norris remains in San Diego.
  8. Melky Cabrera, OF, White Sox: As a solid switch-hitting bat with one reasonably priced year remaining on his deal beyond 2016 ($13MM), Cabrera should hold interest to teams looking for a boost in the lineup. He’s not a long-term piece for the Sox, though they’d probably need to replace him via trade or free agency this winter, so perhaps that alone is reason enough for them to hold on.
  9. Logan Morrison, 1B, Rays: Activated from the DL earlier this month, Morrison recovered from one of the worst starts to a season that I can remember and has quietly posted solid numbers at the plate since snapping that slump. The early season woes have his overall line looking unimpressive, but since the admittedly arbitrary cutoff date of May 16, LoMo is hitting .265/.338/.453. For a rental on a $4.2MM salary, that’s solid production that could bolster a contender’s bench.
  10. Jorge De La Rosa, LHP, Rockies: De La Rosa lost his rotation spot in late May and has somewhat quietly excelled since regaining it the following month. Over his past 78 1/3 innings, De La Rosa has a 3.56 ERA. His 43 strikeouts against 35 walks in that time aren’t encouraging, but he’s generating quality bottom-line results at Coors Field whilst playing out the final season of a two-year, $25MM contract extension.
  11. Jeanmar Gomez, RHP, Phillies: The Phils aren’t done dealing yet, as evidenced by yesterday’s trade of Carlos Ruiz to the Dodgers. Gomez has surrendered five runs in his past five innings but is sporting a 3.07 ERA on the season as a whole. He’d be a solid middle-relief add for any club and is controllable through next season as a bonus — though his salary will be enhanced quite a bit by his run as the Phillies’ closer.
  12. Blake Wood, RHP, Reds: To be completely honest, I’m not entirely sure why Wood’s name hasn’t landed on more of these lists. He’s a cheap bullpen arm on a clear rebuilding team that has some remaining club control. Perhaps the fact that the Reds can keep him via arbitration through 2018 means that they’d prefer to hang onto him, but there’s also an argument to be made that they should cash in on Wood’s 3.69 ERA and 9.3 K/9 — the best production of the journeyman’s career.
  13. Jeremy Hellickson, Phillies, RHP: Hellickson will be claimed by the first NL contender in need of starting pitching most likely, and with only one team to negotiate with, the Phils might not be able to coax more value than they’d get if Hellickson rejected a qualifying offer and netted them a draft pick. Limited leverage notwithstanding, a Hellickson swap makes sense on paper, and an NL contender could get desperate.
  14. David Robertson, RHP, White Sox: Robertson has struggled this year but has a 1.86 ERA in the month of August. With $25MM on his contract following this season, he’s a virtual lock to clear waivers if he hasn’t already. Teams may not view him as the elite reliever he looked to be when he signed a four-year deal with the South Siders, but if GM Rick Hahn absorbs a bit of cash there should be a market.
  15. Trevor Plouffe, 3B, Twins: It’s been a dreadful season for Plouffe, who has seen his year cut short by injuries and his production at the plate deteriorate. Those two things may be related, but even if they are, it doesn’t make his .252/.289/.385 line look much more appealing. There’s legitimate pop in Plouffe’s bat, and his defense rated anywhere from average to slightly above when he was healthy in 2014-15. A club looking for a corner infield boost could pick him up and hope he returns to his David Freese-esque ways at the plate and in the field.
  16. Danny Valencia, 3B/1B/OF, Athletics: Provoked or not, punching a teammate in the face in a clubhouse altercation isn’t a great way to smooth over existing concerns about your clubhouse demeanor. Valencia has raked over the past two calendar years but isn’t a great defender and has longstanding off-field concerns that far pre-date his fistful of Country Breakfast. The A’s are selling off veterans and Valencia’s bat, in a vacuum, is extremely appealing, but it’s not hard to see some clubs simply taking a hard pass in light of recent events.
  17. Ian Krol, LHP, Braves: A cheap, controllable left-handed reliever pitching well out of the Braves bullpen. We’ve seen this movie before, and it ended with a trade of Hunter Cervenka to the Marlins. Krol has more of a track record in the Majors, so perhaps the Braves are more confident that he can be a long-term cog in their relief engine. If Krol hasn’t already been claimed and pulled back, other organizations will likely put in a claim when he is. But the Braves could still work out a deal with whatever club has the waiver priority.
  18. Ryan Madson, RHP, Athletics: Madson’s contract will clear waivers, at which point this will be a matter of if the A’s can find someone willing to take on the majority of his salary. Madson’s overall results are solid, but he’s gone the wrong direction in terms of strikeout rate, walk rate and ground-ball rate. His 36th birthday is on Sunday, so teams are going to be wary about those types of trends in an aging reliever — especially one who sat out from 2012-14 due to injury.
  19. Ervin Santana, RHP, Twins: The Twins’ season has been an unmitigated disaster, but Santana is somewhat quietly on his way to his best season since 2013 and arguably his best since 2008. The 32-year-old has a 3.33 ERA in 140 2/3 innings and has been unstoppable of late, pitching to a 1.79 ERA since June 19. Santana is the best pitcher on the August trade market but the Twins have made it clear they’re not motivated to move him without garnering a significant return. At this point, that’s unlikely.
  20. Jon Jay, OF, Padres: Jay is injured, but MLB rules stipulate that an injured player can be passed through waivers if he’s served the minimum inactivity period and if he is healthy enough to play at his accustomed level. If Jay is able to begin a rehab assignment and show that he’s within arm’s reach of activation, he could hit the wire late this month and be moved just before the calendar flips to September. As a pure rental player that was performing well prior to his injury, he should be appealing to teams needing an outfielder — especially one capable of playing center field.

Also Considered

Yunel Escobar, Fernando Salas (Angels); Jake McGee (Rockies); Matt Garza, Chris Carter, Ryan Braun, Blaine Boyer (Brewers); John Jaso (Pirates); Brandon Kintzler (Twins); Zack Cozart (Reds); Brett Gardner, Chase Headley (Yankees); Yonder Alonso, Coco Crisp, John Axford (Athletics)

Poll: The Diamondbacks’ Front Office

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Derrick Hall will remain the Diamondbacks’ CEO for the foreseeable future, but that won’t necessarily preclude a major overhaul to the franchise’s baseball operations department. Hall stated this week that the club will make decisions on the two heads of that department, chief baseball officer Tony La Russa and general manager Dave Stewart, after the season.

“There’s a lot to think about here,” said Hall, who doesn’t seem eager to make radical changes to Arizona’s front office.

La Russa and Stewart only took the helm in Arizona during the 2014 campaign, but the team has regressed enough under their leadership to make a regime change a legitimate possibility. After going 79-83 and posting a plus-7 run differential in 2015, the Diamondbacks’ first full season with La Russa and Stewart at the controls, the club has plummeted to 53-75 this year. Only two teams have lesser records than the D-backs, and just one has a worse run differential than Arizona’s minus-132. Injuries, primarily the fractured elbow that has kept star center fielder A.J. Pollock out all season, haven’t helped Arizona’s cause. However, even with a healthy roster, it’s fair to say the Diamondbacks would not have pushed for a playoff spot this year. Their front office had other plans, however, as evidenced by its aggressive offseason maneuverings.

The Diamondbacks’ most notable winter transactions included signing 32-year-old right-hander Zack Greinke to a $206.5MM contract and swinging a trade with the Braves for righty Shelby Miller. While still a quality option, Greinke has gone backward in his first year as a Diamondback (and spent time on the DL himself), which wasn’t the scenario they envisioned when awarding a franchise-record payday to him.

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8 High-Priced Non-Tender Candidates

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A player’s years of arbitration eligibility provide an opportunity for value, as teams are able to retain veteran assets without being forced to commit to future seasons — as is often necessary in the free agent market. But there can come a time where even talented and still-useful players have pushed their arb price tag too high to justify the tender of a contract.

With performance and/or injury issues marring the 2016 seasons of these eight established big leaguers, their already-lofty salary starting points could conceivably prompt their respective teams to send them onto the open market:

Lucas Duda, 1B, Mets (5+ service class, $6.725MM 2016 salary): Back issues appear to have ended Duda’s campaign after just 145 plate appearances, and they weren’t terribly productive ones. In that relatively small sample, his walk rate fell even as he put more balls on the ground and made less hard contact than in his productive prior campaigns. The result was a below-average .231/.297/.431 batting line. With health and platoon questions at play, the Mets could well be forced to look for an alternative approach at the position.

Early prediction: Non-tender

Nathan Eovaldi, SP, Yankees (5+, $5.6MM): Despite his struggles, Eovaldi seemed for much of the year to be a fairly sure thing to be tendered a contract. He continued to show signs of promise in spite of the inconsistencies — a career-best 9.3% swinging strike rate, for instance — and at worst would appear to be a late-inning pen candidate with a fastball that sits at 97 even when he’s starting. But a devastating elbow injury means that Eovaldi won’t pitch next year. The Yankees aren’t likely to pay up just to prepare the righty for free agency, so the only way he stays in New York is through some kind of multi-year arrangement.

Early prediction: Non-tender, barring multi-year agreement

Jake McGee, RP, Rockies (5+, $4.8MM): Brought in to be a power late-inning lefty, McGee has faltered — and not just in the thin air of Coors Field. He sits at a 5.26 ERA with 7.6 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9, with his swinging strike percentage (12.3% last year, 8.7% in 2016) plummeting along with his velocity (93.5 mph average four-seamer, down from a 2014 peak of 96.4). McGee has also spent time on the DL with a knee injury. Despite those difficulties, it will be hard for Colorado to part with McGee’s upside, especially having shipped out Corey Dickerson to acquire him last winter and given the going rate for quality pen arms on the open market. But with little in the way of encouraging signs, that just might be what happens.

Early prediction: Non-tender

Shelby Miller, SP, Diamondbacks (3+, $4.35MM): Miller’s struggles are well documented, and he has spent the second half of the year working through his issues at Triple-A. The results have been fairly promising thus far — a 3.52 ERA with 10.0 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 over 46 innings — and the lengthy stint has also impacted his future contract status. Because he now won’t top four years in total MLB service time by year end, Miller will remain under Arizona’s control for an additional season. That certainly impacts the cost-benefit equation, and makes him a likely tender candidate despite a fairly high salary and significant recent performance concerns.

Early prediction: Tender

Tommy Milone, SP, Twins (4+, $4.5MM): Things didn’t start off well for Milone, who was outrighted off of the 40-man roster one month into the 2016 season. He was rather masterful at Triple-A, running up a 1.66 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and a minuscule 0.7 BB/9 in seven starts, but things haven’t improved upon his return to the majors. Plus, Milone is now stuck on the shelf with a biceps problem. The odds seem good that he’ll be permitted to walk this fall.

Early prediction: Non-tender

Trevor Plouffe, 3B, Twins (5+, $7.25MM): It has been an underwhelming and injury-plagued season for the 30-year-old, who owns a .255/.290/.390 batting line with seven home runs in 284 plate appearances. With his power dwindling, Plouffe’s walk rate (4.2%) sits at about half of the level it was over 2014-15. Plus, defensive metrics have soured on the glove and Miguel Sano is arguably in need of everyday time at the hot corner. The Pirates just extended David Freese for two years and $11MM, which makes an $8MM+ payday to Plouffe seem a bit steep in light of his struggles. His time in Minnesota could end with a non-tender rather than a trade, particularly if a new GM decides it’s time to trim salary and focus on future assets.

Early prediction: Non-tender

Ben Revere, OF, Nationals (5+, $6.25MM): Brought in to handle the bulk of the load in center after a solid 2015 season, Revere has been a below-replacement-level player. He not only carries a miserable .215/.261/.302 slash over 335 plate appearances, but has gone just 11-for-16 in stolen base attempts despite typically rating as one of the game’s best bag swipers. While the Nats may well desire a left-handed hitter capable of playing center for 2017, the team may not be willing to pay quite as much as Revere will command in hopes that he can bounce back.

Early prediction: Non-tender

Trevor Rosenthal, RP, Cardinals (4+, $5.6MM): Coming into the year, Rosenthal was one of the game’s better closers. But while his velocity and strikeouts remain, he has permitted 7.3 walks per nine and posted a 5.13 ERA on the year. And now Rosenthal is on the DL with apparent shoulder and forearm issues. There’s at least some chatter that he could move to a starting role, and no suggestion as of yet that the organization is inclined to part with its two remaining years of control, but Rosenthal represents a rather costly roll of the dice.

Early prediction: Tender

Knocking Down The Door: Brugman, Hader, Murphy, Slater, Smith

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This week’s installment of Knocking Down the Door features a pair of lefty starters who are very close to graduating from the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, a strong contender for the Rockies’ catching job in 2017 and a couple of outfielders hoping for a chance to prove that their recent hitting success isn’t an aberration.

Jaycob Brugman, OF, Oakland Athletics (Triple-A Nashville)

It’s fair to say that the A’s could have two, if not three outfield spots up for grabs when the offseason begins (depending on the usage of Khris Davis, who is presently splitting time between left field and DH). And, while there’s no shortage of talented prospects closing in on the Athletics’ big league roster, it’s possible that those outfield spots are occupied next April by players not currently in the organization. August and September can be considered an early audition period for Jake Smolinski and Brett Eibner, who are getting a close look right now. Jaycob Brugman is currently on the outside looking in but doing everything possible to get an invitation.

The left-handed hitting Brugman, who has played mostly in center field this season, has a .393/.456/.539 slash line in August, including 13 hits in his last 22 at-bats. With Coco Crisp and Danny Valencia each potential August trade candidates—the A’s would just need to find a taker for Crisp; Valencia might not pass through waivers—there’s a chance that Brugman could jump right in to an everyday spot in the near future. If that doesn’t happen, the 24-year-old should still be able to take some September at-bats away from Crisp, who will be a free agent after the season.

Athletics Depth Chart

Josh Hader, SP, Milwaukee Brewers (Triple-A Colorado Springs)

When the Brewers needed a pitcher to make a spot start last week, they turned to a highly-deserving 26-year-old named Brent Suter, who they drafted in the 31st round back in 2012. Suter became the first left-hander to start a game for the Brewers in almost three years. Now in the bullpen after getting knocked around in his MLB debut, Suter might only be around to watch the next time a lefty makes a start for the Brewers.

After Josh Hader’s last Triple-A start—two-hit ball over six shutout innings with 12 strikeouts—it could be time to give the 22-year-old lefty a taste of the Major Leagues before he has to shut it down for the year. While his first taste of the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League hasn’t been a walk in the park (4.79 ERA in 12 Triple-A starts; 0.95 ERA in 11 Double-A starts), Hader continues to rack up a ton of strikeouts (11.8 K/9) while keeping the ball out of the stands (0.4 HR/9). Both stats indicate a bright future for Hader, who should crack the Brewers’ rotation in 2017.

Brewers Depth Chart

Tom Murphy, C, Colorado Rockies (Triple-A Albuquerque)

With Nick Hundley headed for free agency after the season, the Rockies will need to determine if they’ll be able to replace him in-house. They can do that now by starting to give defensive standout Tony Wolters more playing time to find out if he can hit enough—he has 11 hits in his last 20 at-bats, but has only started 12 games since the All-Star break—and/or calling up Tom Murphy, who is slashing .421/.461/.804 over his last 28 Triple-A games, to find out if he is good enough defensively.

In all likelihood, that duo should be able to more than make up for the loss of the veteran Hundley, who has subpar offensive numbers on the road and versus right-handed pitching this season. A call-up of Murphy, who didn’t embarrass himself during a September call-up last year (.876 OPS, 3 HR in 39 plate appearances), could result in a heated competition with Wolters that won’t end until Opening Day 2017.

Rockies Depth Chart

Austin Slater, OF, San Francisco Giants (Triple-A Sacramento)

Riding a 13-for-18 hot streak coming into Tuesday, Austin Slater was, probably unknowingly, as close as he had ever been to the big leagues when the Giants placed backup outfielder Gregor Blanco on the disabled list. But it was journeyman Gorkys Hernandez who got the call, mostly due to his speed and defensive ability, although he’s also having a good season at the plate and has 78 games of MLB experience under his belt.

While the 23-year-old Slater’s amazing second-half numbers (.353/.439/.640; 10 HR, 21 BB, 23 K in 37 games) have undoubtedly opened some eyes in the organization, he likely helped his cause further with two hits, including a three-run homer, on the day he was passed over for what would’ve been a well-earned promotion. Slater could get the call in September and has an outside chance to play a bigger role if the oft-injured Angel Pagan is unable to stay on the field.

Giants Depth Chart

Nate Smith, SP, Los Angeles Angels (Triple-A Salt Lake)

No team in baseball could use some good news from down on the farm more than the Angels. With their pitching staff decimated by injuries, they should be delighted with the the recent work of lefty Nate Smith, who allowed just one single over seven shutout innings on Tuesday against a stacked El Paso lineup (see Margot, Asuaje, Renfroe, Hedges).

While the 24-year-old Smith has had an up-and-down season in a tough league for pitchers, he’s likely done enough (4.62 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 7.1 K/9) to warrant serious consideration for a 2017 rotation spot. Of course, it wouldn’t hurt for the Angels to get an early look. With his innings total up to 142 1/3 after 137 2/3 in 2015, it should happen in the next week or two.

Angels Depth Chart

“Knocking Down the Door” is a weekly feature that identifies minor leaguers who are making a case for a big league promotion.

8 Hitters Lining Up Big First-Time Arbitration Salaries

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The principles of determining the arbitration salaries of hitters were established long ago by MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz. While the arb projection model is always being tweaked as it reacts to subtle changes in the process, the fundamental elements remain the same: for hitters to get paid, they need to take a lot of plate appearances, sock a lot of dingers, and rack up those RBIs. Other factors matter too, of course — and quite a bit more goes into making an actually productive player — but those are the major drivers of arb dollars.

So, who is set to cash in this year in their first time through the arbitration system? Players like Nick Castellanos and Yangervis Solarte have some of the attributes of big arbitration earners, but have had their playing time curtailed by injury. Other reasonably productive players, including Billy Hamilton and Ender Inciarte, just don’t add value in the right kinds of ways.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at some hitters who are well on their way to commanding sizable first-year arbitration salaries this winter — locking up a first big payday and setting the a high starting point for future arb raises:

Khris Davis, OF, Athletics: With 33 home runs already in the bank, Davis has a decent chance to reach the 40-dinger plateau and reach the century mark for his career. And he’s a good bet to clear 100 RBI with 82 already on his ledger. As Swartz has explained before, awards and milestones can help boost an arb case. Davis’s lack of walks, middling .300 OBP, and subpar defensive work matter quite a bit more in real life than they do in the arbitration world.

George Springer, OF, Astros (Likely Super Two): Though he’ll only be eligible for Super Two status, that means that Springer is going to be setting a nice, high starting point for his three additional seasons of arbitration control beyond 2017. He leads all players on this list with 581 plate appearances, and he has produced 25 long balls and 72 RBI over that stretch. Though runs don’t seem to have a major impact on the arb valuation process, it can’t hurt that Springer is sure to top 100. And monster production in 2014-15 bolsters Springer’s case as well. Now we can see why the ’Stros tried to get Springer locked up to an extension before he was a fully established big leaguer.

Wil Myers, 1B, Padres: Though he doesn’t feature monster power, Myers is sitting with 23 bombs and could reach 30 by season’s end. He also has matched Springer with 72 RBI to date over his 530 plate appearances, to go with a sturdy .267/.343/.473 slash line. Plus, while steals don’t pay all that much, the 22 accumulated by Myers could help some. It was an advantageous time for Myers to finally play in over 100 MLB games in a season, though his prior injuries will tamp down his earnings somewhat since he hasn’t accumulated as many plate appearances and counting stats as he could have.

Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, Red Sox (Likely Super Two): Though he is actually out-slugging everybody else named in this post (.509), JBJ is tied for the lead in ribbies (72) and lags just a bit in dingers (21). Still, he’s going to command a healthy Super Two payday. (It seems safe to assume that he’ll qualify for that status with what will end up being 2.150 years of service at year end.)

Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox: Bradley’s teammate is playing every day and producing at a fantastic rate for a shortstop, with the positional value likely to help his case somewhat. He has a chance to end the year with twenty homers and around 90 runs batted in, and Bogaerts is also tops among this group with a .310 batting average. Given his extensive action coming into the season, moreover, Bogaerts has more total career plate appearances than anyone named here — except for the next guy down.

Marcell Ozuna, OF, Marlins: Like Bogaerts, Ozuna has over 1,800 career PAs coming into the year and plays a premium defensive position. His demotion last year prevented him from reaching Super Two status last fall, but he’s making up for it with a big .277/.331/.489 campaign. Ozuna will probably top 600 trips to the plate, could approach (or maybe even reach) thirty long balls, and may end up with around eighty ribbies.

Brad Miller, INF, Rays: This year has had some peaks and valleys for Miller, who was moved off of the shortstop position but has largely thrived with the bat. Most notably, he has already banged out 25 home runs and carries a robust .262/.321/.522 batting line. There are some limitations here, including the slightly lower PA (455) and RBI (60) tallies thus far, but Miller is going to command a large first-time salary.

Jonathan Schoop, 2B, Orioles: Good news, Fantex investors! Having already topped twenty dingers after twice popping double-digit home run tallies, Schoop is ready to cash in. He plays up the middle, which helps, and he’s likely to reach 600 plate appearances.

Spoiler Season Is Upon Us

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Burke Badenhop made his Major League debut on April 9, 2008 when he tossed a scoreless inning of relief for the Marlins. In the eight years that followed, he pitched 512 1/3 innings of 3.74 ERA ball with the Marlins, Rays, Brewers, Red Sox and Reds. He’s been a part of four trades (most notably the Miguel Cabrera/Dontrelle Willis blockbuster), tested Major League free agency and been in more than a dozen Major League and minor league clubhouses. We were thrilled to have Burke bring some of that unique perspective to MLB Trade Rumors when he discussed the importance of September roster expansion and are happy to welcome him back for another piece.

You haven’t heard it yet, but pretty soon someone on an MLB broadcast is going to mention a team’s “magic number” — that oh-so-important combined number of wins and rivals’ losses necessary for said team to clinch a spot in the postseason.  Magic number talk means that the playoff race is here and that players will soon start to scour the Internet for the best ski goggles to wear for playoff-clinching celebrations.  So much is written about those teams, and rightfully so, but the season doesn’t end for the rest of the league, even if their only use for ski goggles will be if they plan on snowboarding this winter.  Regardless of how much has gone wrong for a team in a given season, September offers a chance to play the role of spoiler, and teams in position to do so aren’t always as easy to topple as they might have been a couple months ago.

Burke Badenhop

Throughout my big league career I played on a couple of teams in the hunt as September neared.  Unfortunately, I played on far more teams that were at the bottom of the standings when playoff baseball was on the horizon.  There are, however, certain advantages a losing team gains when it’s time to play spoiler.  First off, you have nothing to lose.  Playing with that kind of freedom can bring out the best in some teams.  What’s one more loss when you’ve been losing all year?  Playing with nothing to lose is also compounded by the fact that the teams in the hunt have everything to lose.  They are expected to beat you.  If they lose now, they could ruin all the success they’ve had all year.  With those added expectations, they’ll play tight, while you can play loose.  It’s practically a recipe for spoiler success.

Playing the role of spoiler is also fun.  It may sound terrible to say, but ruining another team’s season is kind of exciting.  You can’t tell me the Orioles weren’t having fun when they dashed the Red Sox’ playoff hopes on that famous last day of the season in 2011.  For a losing team, it may have been months since you played baseball and legitimately had fun.  Losing all season is not fun.  Playing spoiler, to borrow the slogan from Bryce Harper, can “make baseball fun again.”  A team with a renewed sense of fun will certainly play better and is far more dangerous to face this time of year.

Teams also gain a greater sense of pride and meaning toward the end of the year.  There’s an inherent pride that comes along with playing our national pastime.  Despite your spot in the standings, it’s your responsibility to the game to continually try your best and not roll over just because you won’t make the playoffs.  It’s practically your unwritten duty to try and play spoiler.  Doing so can add a lot of meaning to an otherwise meaningless season.

As a teammate, you take pride in giving your best for your team, your coaches and yourself.  Jobs can be won and lost based on how you play at the end of the season.  It’s your final opportunity to give coaches, scouts and executives a lasting impression of the type of player you are as you head into the offseason.  That type of personal pride will often bring out the best in a player.

In 2014, I was playing for a Red Sox team that wasn’t going to make the playoffs.  I had pitched well all season and was going to be a free agent at the end of the year.  The stats that I finished with would be very important in determining what type of jobs I’d be looking at in the winter.  Fall apart and teams might write you off.  Stay the course and teams might continue to be impressed.  Develop a sudden bout of wildness on the mound and red flags will rise.  As any reliever would know, it doesn’t take much to lose control of an inning and see a team put up a five spot on you.  I wanted nothing to do with any of that.  My focus never wavered until I knew I got the last out of my last appearance.  Having the finish line in sight gave me something to focus on this time of year, and it’s a prime reason for the fact that teams won’t roll over when you’d expect them to.

There’s one last little advantage a spoiler type team will also have this time of year that is probably easily over looked by fans: the element of surprise.  Teams out of the playoff race are comprised of far more guys that you’ve never heard of.  As an opposing team, this can make preparation difficult.  I remember a pre-series pitchers’ meeting where a rookie hitter was about to be discussed.  We had no video on him.  One of our pitchers had faced him one time two years ago in the minors, and that was about it.  About our only info on him was that he was 6’2” and hit right-handed.  Sometimes you might get lucky and have some minor league video on a guy to get a sense of his approach in the box.  Unfortunately, that video usually isn’t an HD Sunday Night Baseball broadcast.  It’s probably video from a center-field camera at some Double-A park that has the quality of elevator security footage.  Without the ability to prepare for a team, they can easily sneak up on you.

So when you’re watching a last place team beat up on a playoff contender in a few weeks, don’t be so surprised. Know that there are a few extra factors at play now that it’s magic number time.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Originals

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Here’s a recap of the original analysis MLBTR offered over the last week:

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

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