Phillies Interested In Bo Bichette
Free agent infielder Bo Bichette has thus far drawn interest from the Blue Jays and Red Sox. The Yankees, Cubs, and Dodgers have also checked in on his market. Now, Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds that the Phillies are among the big-market suitors for Bichette.
Philadelphia’s biggest offseason move has been the re-signing of Kyle Schwarber to a five-year, $150MM contract. Outside of that, the team has added Adolis Garcia to the outfield mix on a one-year deal. They also retooled the bullpen by trading away Matt Strahm, acquiring Kyle Backhus, and signing Brad Keller and Zach Pop. Last month, it was reported that the club is looking for a righty platoon bat and some rotation depth, as well as a reunion with J.T. Realmuto. In contrast, the infield hasn’t been mentioned as a target for an upgrade, so it’s possible that the Phillies are just doing due diligence on Bichette.
The club has Trea Turner entrenched at shortstop. The 32-year-old continues to perform at a high level. In 2025, he batted .304/.355/.457 in 141 games with a 125 wRC+ that was sixth-best among qualified shortstops. He also lowered his strikeout rate to just 16.7% and hit 15 home runs while stealing 36 bases. Crucially, after two seasons of below-average defense, Turner was worth 2 Defensive Runs Saved as well as 16 Outs Above Average in 2025, the latter ranking fourth among qualified shortstops. That stands in stark contrast to Bichette, who was worth -12 DRS and -13 OAA for the Blue Jays this year.
The presence of Turner makes the Phillies less of an obvious fit for Bichette the shortstop. With Schwarber taking the DH slot, Bichette would need to play second or third base if he were to sign. The keystone is the more likely outcome, with Bichette telling interested teams that he is willing to play there. He notably played five games at second base during the World Series, with Andres Gimenez covering shortstop. Before that, Bichette had only spent 262 1/3 innings at the keystone in his career, all in the minor leagues.
Statcast takes an unfavorable view of Bichette’s arm strength (36th percentile) and sprint speed (21st percentile). A move to second base would allow him to make shorter throws and limit his exposure to batted balls from right-handed hitters, with which he has historically struggled. Meanwhile, the Phillies’ incumbent second baseman is Bryson Stott. His 2025 batting line of .257/.328/.391 was league average by wRC+. On defense, he was seen as average (0 DRS) to positive (7 OAA). Altogether, he was worth 3.1 fWAR this year, which was sixth among qualified second basemen.
Signing Bichette to play second might force Stott to the hot corner, where has only played 15 big-league innings. That could still be a good defensive alignment of the two. Whereas Bichette struggles against batted balls by right-handed hitters, Stott was worth an equal 4 OAA against right-handed and left-handed batters in 2025. Slotting him at third base to accommodate Bichette wouldn’t be a perfect fit, given Stott’s below-average arm strength. Still, his better performance against batted balls by righties, as well as his plus range and sprint speed, could help him adapt to the hot corner better than Bichette could.
An alignment of Stott at third, Turner at short, and Bichette at second would leave Alec Bohm without a regular position. Bohm batted .287/.331/.409 with a 105 wRC+ in 120 games this year as the Phillies’ primary third baseman. That’s certainly not terrible, but it was a drop-off from his 113 wRC+ in 2024. He also declined on defense, dropping from 4 OAA in 2024 to -2 OAA this year. Bohm is entering his last year of team control and is projected for a $10.3MM salary in arbitration, which makes him a potential trade candidate. Indeed, back in October, 69.72% of MLBTR readers believed the Phillies would trade him.
It remains to be seen whether the Phillies are seriously interested in Bichette or just doing their due diligence. That said, if they were to sign him and trade Bohm, they’d be upgrading their offense and potentially their infield defense. We at MLBTR ranked Bichette at No. 2 on our Top 50 Free Agents list, projecting an eight-year, $208MM deal. Adding that $26MM annual salary while subtracting Bohm’s $10.3MM would bring the team’s 2026 payroll to just under $281MM, according to RosterResource. That would leave about $10MM for a reunion with Realmuto and other additions, assuming the team matches its 2025 payroll of $291MM.
Photo courtesy of Dan Hamilton, Imagn Images
Phillies Sign Mark Kolozsvary To Minor League Deal
The Phillies have signed catcher Mark Kolozsvary to a minor league contract, The Athletic’s Will Sammon reports. The deal contains an invitation for Kolozsvary to attend Philadelphia’s big league spring camp.
Kolozsvary has played in only 11 Major League games, and none since the 2023 season. Rafael Marchan and Garrett Stubbs are the only other catchers in the Phillies organization with any big league playing time at all, so the 30-year-old Kolozsvary adds some experience to the depth chart. J.T. Realmuto‘s continued stay in free agency remains the biggest question hanging over the Phillies’ catching situation, but given how Marchan and Stubbs also haven’t shown much at the MLB level, adding another catcher to the Spring Training backup competition was likely on the Phils’ to-do list with or without Realmuto back in the fold.
A seventh-round pick for the Reds in the 2017 draft, Kolozsvary’s time with his original team culminated in 10 MLB games and 21 plate appearances during the 2022 season. The Orioles claimed Kolozsvary off waivers from Cincinnati following the 2022 campaign, and Kolozsvary ended up making a single appearance as a late-game defensive sub during a brief stay on Baltimore’s active roster in June 2023. The O’s designated him for assignment shortly thereafter and Kolozsvary caught on with the Twins on a minor league deal, and he then spent the 2024-25 seasons playing in the Red Sox farm system.
Kolozsvary has a reputation as a very solid defensive catcher, which has helped him extend his career despite a modest .194/.309/.338 slash line over 407 plate appearances at the Triple-A level (let alone his .200/.238/.450 slash in the small sample size of his 21 PA with the Reds).
Kolozsvary has two minor league options remaining, which is a notable detail because both Marchan and Stubbs are out of options. While the Phillies avoided arbitration with Marchan and Stubbs by signing them to guaranteed salaries for the 2026 season, neither contract is expensive, and Stubbs’ deal is a split contract. This opens the door for Kolozsvary to possibly supplant Stubbs as the top depth catcher, though the Phillies’ catching mix remains fluid as long as Realmuto remains unsigned.
Phillies To Sign Levi Stoudt To Minor League Deal
The Phillies and right-hander Levi Stoudt have agreed to a minor league deal, reports Ari Alexander of 7News Boston WHDH. The righty is represented by Gaeta Sports Management.
Stoudt, now 28, was once a notable prospect. The Mariners selected him with a third-round pick in 2019. He missed the 2020 season, both due to the pandemic and because Stoudt was recovering from Tommy John surgery. Over 2021 and the first half of 2022, he tossed 168 2/3 innings in Seattle’s system with a 4.32 earned run average, 23.7% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate.
He was one of four players traded to the Reds in the 2022 deadline deal which sent Luis Castillo to Seattle. Cincinnati gave him a 40-man spot in November of that year to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.
Things didn’t work out with the Reds. He tossed 10 1/3 innings in the majors in 2023, allowing 11 earned runs. He also tossed 82 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level that year with a 6.23 ERA. His 15.1% strikeout rate and 13% walk rate were both poor figures.
The Reds designated him for assignment in the 2023-24 offseason. The Mariners grabbed him back via the waiver wire and kept him on optional assignment. They put him back on waivers in June. The Orioles claimed him but then passed him through waivers in July. Over 2024 and 2025, he had a 5.83 ERA in the minors with an 18.5% strikeout rate and 11.4% walk rate.
It’s been a while since Stoudt has been able to put up intriguing numbers but there’s an old saying that there’s no such thing as a bad minor league deal. Stoudt is still relatively young and could perhaps find another gear.
If he does so and earns a roster spot, he still has an option season, meaning the Phils could send him to Triple-A and back fairly freely for a year. He also has just ten days of big league service time, meaning he could be affordably controlled for years into the future, though a lot would have to go right before that even becomes a consideration.
Photo courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel, Imagn Images
Details On Matt Strahm Trade
The Phillies traded lefty Matt Strahm to the Royals on Friday in exchange for righty reliever Jonathan Bowlan. Philadelphia has two other solid lefty relievers in Jose Alvarado and Tanner Banks, to say nothing of Jhoan Duran and the recently-signed Brad Keller from the right side. With a strong late-inning mix in those four, it made sense to clear Strahm’s $7.5MM salary for 2026 to help with other additions, such as a J.T. Realmuto reunion.
According to Matt Gelb of the Athletic, Strahm was outspoken in his opinions on how the bullpen and clubhouse were managed, which clashed with coaches and other team officials. Meanwhile, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski framed the matter as a more of a question of contractual control, telling reporters, “(Strahm is) a year away from free agency. We were able to get a guy that we liked who has six years of (club control) and we think can help us right away. So you have to give to get. And we still feel good with our left-handers in the bullpen.”
For his part, Strahm released a statement following the trade in which he spoke positively of the organization and of his now-former teammates. “It was an honor to wear this uniform alongside you and compete every day with a group that truly cared about winning and about each other,” said Strahm. “I’ll miss every single guy in that clubhouse. I’ve never experienced anything like it.” In any case, whether the trade resulted from tension with his teammates or with the coaching staff, the club felt it was the right time to move on.
Strahm came to the Phillies in December 2022 on a two-year, $15MM deal. In March 2024, the two sides agreed on a one-year extension for 2025 at a $7.5MM salary, which contained a $4.5MM club option for 2026. Strahm vested that option at a higher rate of $7.5MM by reaching 60 innings in 2025 (he finished with 62 1/3 innings over 66 appearances) and passing a physical in September. Indeed, while he was injury-prone during his years with the Royals, Padres, and Red Sox, Strahm was healthy from 2023-25 with the Phillies, avoiding the injured list entirely.
The combination of good health and performance made his $7.5MM annual salary an excellent value. In 212 2/3 innings across 188 appearances from 2023-25, Strahm had a 2.71 ERA and struck out 30.5% of hitters against a 6.2% walk rate. Excluding his 33 1/3 innings as a starter in 2023, his 2.46 ERA in 179 1/3 innings was 10th-best among qualified relievers, just ahead of Edwin Diaz and Josh Hader. His 24.1% K-BB rate as a reliever was 12th-best.
His 2025 was more of the same, if a slight step down from his All-Star 2024 season. He pitched to a 2.74 ERA while seeing his strikeout and walk numbers trend slightly in the wrong direction. He struck out 33.3% of hitters in 2024, though that slipped to 27.3% this year. That is still excellent, ranking in the 81st percentile according to Statcast. Similarly, his walk rate increased from 4.6% to 7.8% in 2025, which graded out in the 53rd percentile. Both of those metrics suggest that Strahm is still a capable high-leverage arm. That said, there were some signs of decline under the surface. His four-seam velocity dropped to 92.2 mph this year after sitting at 93.4 mph from 2023-24. His 21.2% groundball rate in 2025 was worst among qualified relievers, while his 59.0% flyball rate was third-worst.
Given these trends and the tension with the coaching staff, the Phillies may have simply been content to move on and enter 2026 with Alvarado and Banks as their lefty relievers. Meanwhile, Strahm will get a fresh start with the Royals, whose bullpen is quite strong heading into 2026. The additions of Strahm and outfielder Lane Thomas bring the club’s projected payroll to $150MM, up from $138MM in 2025, according to RosterResource.
Photo courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Imagn Images
Nine Teams Exceeded Luxury Tax Threshold In 2025
Major League Baseball has finalized its calculations of teams’ competitive balance tax payrolls for the 2025 season. As first reported by The Associated Press, nine teams surpassed the $241MM base threshold. In a separate post, The AP lists the finalized CBT numbers for all 30 teams.
The payments are as follows:
- Dodgers: $169.4MM
- Mets: $91.6MM
- Yankees: $61.8MM
- Phillies: $56.1MM
- Blue Jays: $13.6MM
- Padres: $7MM
- Astros: $1.5MM
- Red Sox: $1.5MM
- Rangers: $190K
Teams pay escalating penalties for exceeding the threshold in consecutive seasons. The Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Phillies and Rangers have all paid the tax in at least three straight years — subjecting them to the highest escalator fees. The Astros went over the line for the second straight season. The Blue Jays, Padres and Red Sox had gotten below in 2024 and are categorized as first-time payors.
This is the second straight year in which nine teams paid the CBT. The Braves, Giants and Cubs had gone over the line in ’24 but dipped below this year, which resets their status going into 2026. Atlanta’s active offseason puts them in position to go back into tax territory next year, when the base threshold climbs to $244MM. San Francisco and Chicago each have projected CBT numbers more than $40MM below that right now.
While public estimates from RosterResource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts offer an excellent approximation of teams’ payroll commitments, the official numbers are not available during the season. It’s not uncommon for rounding errors in those calculations to vary by a few million dollars. That generally isn’t a big deal but can matter for teams that are hovering very close to the tax line. Each of the Red Sox ($249MM payroll), Astros ($246MM) and Rangers ($241.38MM) were believed to have gone narrowly beyond the $241MM cutoff, but that wasn’t 100% established until this evening — particularly in the case of Texas.
The Dodgers ($417MM), Mets ($347MM), Yankees ($320MM), Phillies ($314MM) and Blue Jays ($286MM) all had payrolls above $281MM. That was the third tier of penalization and marked the point at which a team’s top draft pick is dropped by 10 spots. The Mets were the only of those five that didn’t make the playoffs. Their top pick drops from 17th to 27th. The Yankees, Philadelphia, Toronto and L.A. all have their first-round pick dropped to between 35th and 40th.
Teams that paid the CBT are entitled to the lowest level of compensation for losing free agents who declined a qualifying offer. They receive a draft choice after the fourth round for each qualified free agent who walks. They’re charged the heaviest penalty — their second- and fifth-highest picks in 2026 and $1MM from their ’27 international bonus pool — for signing a qualified free agent from another team.
San Diego and the Mets receive a pick after the fourth round for losing Dylan Cease and Edwin Díaz, respectively. Toronto (Bo Bichette), Houston (Framber Valdez) and Philadelphia (Ranger Suárez) would receive the same if their free agents sign elsewhere. The Dodgers surrendered their second- and fifth-round selections for Díaz. Toronto is slated to do the same for Cease, but if Bichette walks, they’d give up that compensatory pick instead and get their fifth-rounder back.
The Dodgers’ combined payroll and tax bill for the 2025 season lands north of $586MM. The two-time defending champions’ tax hit alone is higher than the payrolls of the bottom 12 teams in the league. There were 14 clubs that had a CBT number above $200MM. The Braves, Cubs, Giants, Angels, Diamondbacks and Mariners were the other six teams above the median. All but Seattle spent more than $200MM.
On the other end, the Marlins ($87MM) and White Sox ($92MM) were the two teams with payrolls below $100MM. The Rays ($103MM), Pirates ($109MM) and Athletics ($118MM) rounded out the bottom five — followed by the Guardians, Nationals, Twins, Brewers and Reds.
Overall, the league will collect just under $403MM in taxes. Teams must make the payments by January 21. The first $3.5MM will be used to fund player benefits. Half the remaining money goes to players’ retirement accounts, while the other half is used for revenue sharing distribution from MLB to teams.
Royals Acquire Matt Strahm
The Royals and Phillies announced a one-for-one reliever swap on Friday morning. Left-hander Matt Strahm heads to Kansas City with righty Jonathan Bowlan going to Philadelphia.
It’s a reunion for Strahm and the Royals, as Kansas City drafted the lefty in the 21st round of the 2012 draft. Strahm made his big league debut for the Royals in 2016 and spent parts of two seasons with the club before being shipped to the Padres in a six-player trade alongside Travis Wood and Esteury Ruiz in order to acquire Trevor Cahill, Brandon Maurer, and Ryan Buchter. Strahm had a career 3.81 ERA and 4.12 FIP in 56 2/3 innings at the time of the trade. He’ll now return to Kansas City nearly a decade later with more than 500 MLB innings and an All-Star appearance under his belt.
Much of Strahm’s tenure with the Padres was fraught with injuries and ineffectiveness, but a solid season with Boston back in 2022 convinced the Phillies to bring him into the fold. Since arriving in Philadelphia, the lefty has emerged as one of the league’s most effective relievers. He has a 2.71 ERA in 212 2/3 innings of work over the past three years with a 2.82 FIP and a 3.01 SIERA. That’s the eighth-most innings of any pitcher with ten starts or fewer over the past three seasons, and among qualified relievers his ERA ranks 10th, his FIP ranks 15th, and his SIERA ranks 21st.
That’s an elite combination of quality and quantity that virtually any bullpen would benefit from adding, and the Royals are no exception. Strahm figures to join closer Carlos Estevez and righty Lucas Erceg at the back of the Kansas City bullpen to create the best late-inning trio the Royals have had since the 2015 club’s “three-headed monster” of Greg Holland, Wade Davis, and Kelvin Herrera. With solid arms like Nick Mears, John Schreiber, and Daniel Lynch IV set to cover the middle innings, it’s not hard to imagine the Royals entering 2025 with one of the stronger top-to-bottom bullpens in the American League thanks to this trade. Mears just came over in the same trade that netted Isaac Collins for the Royals but sent lefty Angel Zerpa to the Brewers. Sending out Zerpa cut into Kansas City’s lefty relief group but they have quickly pivoted to Strahm to restock in that department.
The loss of Strahm will surely sting for the Phillies somewhat, but the club remains fairly well set up in terms of their late-inning mix. Jhoan Duran remains one of the league’s top closers, and the recently-acquired Brad Keller was one of the top setup men in the majors last year with the Cubs. From the left side, Jose Alvarado and Tanner Banks should form a quality duo, and Alvarado in particular has offered elite production in the past. Strahm’s name has long been in trade rumors this winter, and clearing his $7.5MM salary off the books could help the Phillies in the pursuit of a reunion with catcher J.T. Realmuto or help them to afford the addition of another outfielder, who could help contribute alongside Brandon Marsh, Adolis Garcia, and top prospect Justin Crawford.
Aside from the financial incentive to make the trade, the Phillies will also receive the services of Bowlan, a 29-year-old righty who made his big league debut in 2023 but just got his first extended look in the majors last year. Bowlan pitched quite well across 44 1/3 innings for Kansas City in 2025, posting a 3.86 ERA with a 3.97 FIP in that time. He struck out 25.6% of his opponents with a 9.4% walk rate and a solid 48.7% ground ball rate.
That ability to generate both strikeouts and grounders should make Bowlan an effective, low-cost addition to a Phillies pen that has plenty of solid options in the late innings but has plenty of spots still fairly unsettled. With less than one year of service time under his belt, Bowlan can be controlled through the end of the 2031 season, affording Philadelphia the opportunity to bring in an arm that could be part of their relief mix for years to come.
Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that Strahm was being traded to Kansas City. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand had Bowlan going the other way.
Phillies Evaluating Catching Trade Market With Realmuto Still Unsigned
The Phillies have prioritized reunions with Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto. They succeeded in bringing back the MVP runner-up on a five-year deal at the Winter Meetings. Realmuto’s free agency has been more extended, leaving the Phils in a holding pattern behind the plate.
While a reunion with their longtime catcher remains the priority, Matt Gelb of The Athletic writes that it’s not a lock to come to fruition. The sides obviously have yet to align on contract terms despite Philadelphia’s willingness to offer multiple years. Gelb writes that the Phillies have been involved in trade conversations about potential alternatives. Although there’s no indication anything is close on that front, that highlights the biggest question for the front office.
Aside from Realmuto, the free agent catching market is bleak. Danny Jansen is off the board on a two-year deal with Texas. Victor Caratini is the only other potential starting option, and he has been more of a high-end #2 catcher over the course of his career. Everyone else is a backup or organizational depth type.
That’s also true of the two catchers currently on Philly’s roster, Rafael Marchán and Garrett Stubbs. Marchán was a promising enough prospect that it isn’t out of the question that he could be a solid glove-first starter if given the opportunity. That’d be a gamble for a win-now team, though, and clubs are sometimes reluctant to upgrade the position at the trade deadline because of the adjustment of learning a pitching staff in the middle of a pennant race. The worst case scenario for the Phils is that they wait out Realmuto’s market but get outbid after Caratini has already signed elsewhere. That’d leave them with little choice but to turn to the trade market.
At the same time, they’re probably reluctant to make a trade while Realmuto is still a free agent. Marchán and Stubbs are both out of minor league options. They’re already likely to expose one of them to waivers before Opening Day. Trading for a catcher and re-signing Realmuto could mean losing both of them, as there’s a good chance another team would claim Marchán. Realmuto’s heavy workloads don’t leave much playing time for his backup, so that’s not an ideal use of resources.
The Phils’ trade conversations may be due diligence for now. They still seem likelier than not to figure something out with Realmuto. If that doesn’t come together, speculative trade options include Pedro Pagés, J.C. Escarra, Connor Wong and Jose Trevino.
Phillies Acquire Kyle Backhus
The Phillies announced that they have acquired left-hander Kyle Backhus from the Diamondbacks. Minor league outfielder Avery Owusu-Asiedu goes in the other direction. The move opens a 40-man spot for Arizona, which should allow them to make their agreement with Merrill Kelly official. Philly’s 40-man count goes from 37 to 38.
Backhus debuted for the Diamondbacks this past season. The 27-year-old scuffled to a 4.62 ERA across 32 appearances. Arizona’s ever-changing mix of late-inning options allowed Backhus to factor into high-leverage situations, and he recorded a pair of saves and 10 holds. He notched a one-out save in his final appearance with the big-league club, coaxing a flyout with the bases loaded to finish off a 6-4 victory in mid-September. He was sent back to Triple-A Reno shortly after.
Arizona added Backhus as an undrafted free agent in 2021. After posting middling results in a half-season of professional ball, he began to gain traction as a backend reliever. Backhus posted a hefty 34.5% strikeout rate between High-A and Double-A in 2022, earning three saves at each level. He locked down 10 more saves at Double-A the following season, leading to a promotion to Triple-A. Injuries limited Backhus to 35 2/3 innings in 2024. He received an invite to Spring Training this year, and while he didn’t break camp with the club, a strong couple of months at Reno saw Backhus get the call to Arizona.
Backhus is a sinkerballer who doesn’t light up the radar gun, but comes from a unique slot. Statcast had his arm angle at nine degrees, which was among the lowest in the league. Backhus also ranked in the 96th percentile for extension. Interestingly, the low arm slot and sinker-heavy approach didn’t lead to many ground balls. Backhus had a below-average 37.8% ground ball rate. He did a decent job limiting hard hits, but gave up an elevated amount of contact in the air to the pull side.
The Backhus addition comes on the heels of a trade that sent fellow lefty Matt Strahm to Kansas City. Strahm led the Phillies with 22 holds in 2025. Jose Alvarado will likely step into the lefty setup role vacated by Strahm, with Tanner Banks on hand as a lower-leverage southpaw option. Backhus will serve as a depth option who could step in if injuries or poor performance afflict Philly’s bullpen.
Philadelphia took Owusu-Asiedu in the ninth round of the 2023 draft. He delivered nine home runs and 17 stolen bases at Single-A in 2024, but it came with a .192 batting average and a 36.1% strikeout rate. Owusu-Asiedu was able to trim his strikeout rate to 24% between Single-A and High-A this past season. He also racked up 33 steals in 107 games.
The 22-year-old Owusu-Asiedu has experience at all three outfield positions. He made at least six starts in left field, center field, right field, and DH with High-A Hillsboro.
Phillies Sign Brad Keller
December 18th: The Phils have officially announced their signing of Keller. According to The Associated Press, he receives a $4MM signing bonus and a $7MM salary for 2026, followed by an $11MM salary in ’27.
December 17th: The Phillies and right-handed reliever Brad Keller are in agreement on a two-year, $22MM contract, reports ESPN’s Jesse Rogers. The deal is pending a physical. Fansided’s Robert Murray first reported that the two parties were nearing an agreement. Keller, who is represented by Excel Sports Management, received some interest as a starter but will be used as a reliever in Philadelphia, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
Keller, 30, was a solid starter with the Royals early in his career after being picked up from the D-backs in the 2017 Rule 5 Draft. After a nice run of three seasons, his numbers took a sharp decline, due largely to the complete erosion of his command.
Keller walked a staggering 45 batters in 45 1/3 innings in 2023 and was subsequently diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome. He underwent surgery to alleviate the issue. A comeback effort in 2024 didn’t pan out well, as he pitched to a 5.44 ERA in 41 1/3 frames between the Red Sox and White Sox, but Keller completely remade himself as a high-end bullpen weapon with the Cubs in 2025 after signing a minor league contract.
In 69 2/3 innings this past season, Keller was dominant. His 2.07 ERA tied him for 13th-best among 147 qualified relievers. The 6’5″, 255-pound righty set down 27.2% of his opponents on strikes and notched a sharp 8% walk rate. Keller had sat 92-94 mph as a starter and even in bullpen work with the White Sox and Red Sox in ’24, but his sinker averaged a career-best 96.7 mph in 2025 and his four-seamer clocked in even higher at 97.2 mph. His 56.1% ground-ball rate was a career-best mark, and opponents had an extremely rough time squaring up any of his pitches. His 86.7 mph average exit velocity and 30.6% hard-hit rate were far and away the lowest marks of his career.
There are at least some modest red flags with regard to Keller. His 10.8% swinging-strike is actually below the league average and doesn’t support his well above-average strikeout rate. The quality of his stuff clearly improved, just as the quality of his opponents’ contact deteriorated, but it’s still unlikely that he’ll sustain a .243 average on balls in play over the course of a full season. However, even with some regression in terms of BABIP and strikeout rate, Keller still looks the part of a quality bullpen arm who’ll support an improved late-inning relief contingent for the next two seasons.
Keller should operate as a setup man to deadline acquisition Jhoan Duran, who came over from Minnesota in exchange for top prospects Eduardo Tait and Mick Abel. He’ll join righty Orion Kerkering and southpaws Jose Alvarado, Matt Strahm and Tanner Banks in what should be a formidable setup corps for manager Rob Thomson. There’s still room for the Phils to add another reliever if a deal to their liking presents itself, but they’re six-deep in largely established relief arms with Keller now in the fold.
The $11MM annual value of the contract pushes the Phillies from the third tier of luxury tax penalization to the fourth and final bracket, per RosterResource’s projections. They were already paying a 95% tax on subsequent additions and were about $7MM from the top tier. Keller places them about $4MM over that line. They’ll pay about $22MM for him this season (assuming an even $11MM per year distribution) rather than that $11MM surface value. Any subsequent additions to the payroll at this point will be taxed at the maximum 110% rate.
The Phillies have done a fair bit of offseason work already. They added outfielder Adolis Garcia on a one-year contract just yesterday and, prior to that, re-signed slugger Kyle Schwarber on a huge five-year, $150MM contract. The Phils could still poke around the bullpen market or look for a complementary right-handed bat to pair with Brandon Marsh in left field. Rotation depth could be an issue as well, depending on Zack Wheeler‘s recovery from his own thoracic outlet procedure, so some modest depth adds could be on the horizon. The most notable issue for the club, however, is at catcher, where they’re still hoping to retain longtime backstop J.T. Realmuto. That’ll be top of mind until Realmuto signs, be it in Philadelphia or elsewhere.
Phillies Notes: Outfield, Castellanos, Rotation
Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski spoke with the media this week and said that the club was mostly set with their outfield after the Adolis García signing. Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports that the club is looking for a right-handed platoon bat to add into the mix.
That’s a sensible target, given the current setup. García should have right field spoken for with Brandon Marsh in left. The Phils want to give Justin Crawford a chance to take over the center field job. Both Marsh and Crawford are lefties. Marsh has notable career splits, with a .213/.278/.303 line and 61 wRC+ against southpaws in his career. Crawford actually fared slightly better against lefties in the minors this year but in a tiny sample of just 91 plate appearances against southpaws.
Having another righty bat who hits lefties well would make sense, particularly to platoon with Marsh. Crawford is more of a speed-and-defense guy anyway. He has hit well in the minors but with a high-contact, low-power approach that might be harder to pull off when facing better pitching and better defense in the majors. Time will tell how it plays but the Phils might be willing to live with whatever offense he can provide against lefties if he’s stealing bases and running the ball down on the grass.
Gelb mentions Rob Refsnyder as the kind of profile the Phillies are looking for, a righty bat who has mashed lefties in his career. He is one of many free agents to fit this profile, alongside guys like Miguel Andujar, Randal Grichuk, Austin Hays, Tommy Pham, Austin Slater and others. Old friend Harrison Bader would be a nice fit but he can probably get an everyday center field job elsewhere.
The Phils also have a potential solution already on the roster in Nick Castellanos. His offense has tailed off in recent years but he has largely stayed effective with the platoon advantage. He didn’t hit well against pitchers of either handedness in 2025 but still hit lefties as recently as 2024, when he had a .269/.324/.506 line and 124 wRC+ in the split.
Gelb reported back in October that the Phils would likely trade or release Castellanos. He re-asserted that position in this week’s column, linked above. It’s an interesting dynamic for the Phils as Castellanos is potentially the profile they are looking for but it seems they will look elsewhere. Perhaps that’s due to his defensive shortcomings or the fact that he hit just .243/.293/.387 against lefties in 2025 for an 87 WRC+.
It’s also theoretically possible that it’s due to off-the-field dynamics. Castellanos and manager Rob Thomson don’t seem to have the best relationship. Castellanos was benched in June for some kind of inappropriate comment made to the skipper, per ESPN. Castellanos also publicly criticized Thomson for his communication skills. With the apparent friction, perhaps things would get even worse if Castellanos were bumped into a part-time, short-side platoon role.
Whatever the reasoning, it seems the Phils are in a strange position. Castellanos is still owed $20MM next year. If they can’t find a trade partner, they could end up releasing him. It appears they will also look for a replacement, probably spending another $5MM or so on some new guy. The Phillies are a repeat tax payor and are over the top line, meaning that they pay a 110% tax on any additional spending. In the end, it’s possible they give Castellanos $20MM to go away, then spend a few million more on his replacement, plus taxes.
On the pitching side, Gelb reports that the Phils are looking for rotation depth but don’t appear to be looking for any guys on multi-year contracts. That makes some sense with what they have in place already, as they have a few questions but might have enough arms.
Zack Wheeler is recovering from surgery to address venous thoracic outlet syndrome. He is expected to begin the season on the injured list but could rejoin the rotation fairly early in the campaign. While he’s out, the Phils should start the season with a rotation consisting of Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo, Aaron Nola, Taijuan Walker and Andrew Painter.
There’s an argument for the club to sign another starter but things could theoretically get tight once Wheeler is back. If they did sign a big free agent, then there’s a scenario fairly early in the season where this free agent, Wheeler, Sánchez, Luzardo and Nola have the five rotation spots. That would bump Walker to long relief and Painter to Triple-A.
The Phils might actually want to have a path open for Painter in case 2026 is his breakout year. His 5.40 earned run average in Triple-A this year wasn’t pretty but that was mostly due to a home run spike, unusual for him. 17.6% of his fly balls allowed went over the fence, whereas he was at just 5.6% in 2022 before getting hurt. This year’s 23.7% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate were pretty close to average.
While Wheeler is out, the Phils can give Painter a chance to hold a rotation spot. By the time Wheeler gets back, the Phils can decide whether Painter needs more Triple-A time or if he’s ready to take off.
This all assumes everyone is healthy at the same time. Given the likelihood of injuries to the pitching staff, perhaps the Phils should bolster the group anyway. With Walker and Luzardo impending free agents, signing a multi-year deal now would also help the club in 2027.
However, the club’s 2026 payroll is already pretty close to where they were in 2025. According to RosterResource, they are within $14MM of where they finished the most recent season. If they re-sign J.T. Realmuto as hoped, they would end up making up most or all of that difference. In terms of CBT, as mentioned, they are already over the top line and facing a 110% on further spending. Rather than go after a big splash for the rotation, they will add some depth but will mostly be hoping that the guys they already have can step up.
Photo courtesy of Kyle Ross, Imagn Images