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Padres, Anderson Espinoza Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Padres are in agreement with right-hander Anderson Espinoza on a minor league contract, reports Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The Friars have also agreed to non-roster pacts with outfielder Preston Tucker and reliever Drew Carlton, Sanders reports (Twitter link).

Espinoza returns to an organization where he spent a half-decade. Acquired from the Red Sox in the 2016 deadline deal that sent Drew Pomeranz to Boston, Espionza was regarded as a possible top-of-the-rotation starter at the time. Baseball America named him the #1 prospect in the San Diego system the following winter. Unfortunately, a series of injuries prevented the 6’0″ hurler from getting a chance to make good on that immense promise. Espinoza felt some elbow soreness at the start of the 2017 season, and he underwent Tommy John surgery. After two years of rehab, he suffered another elbow injury that required a second TJ procedure.

The successive surgeries cost him a staggering four years of game action, as he didn’t throw a single professional pitch from 2017-20. Midway through the ’21 campaign, San Diego dealt him to the Cubs for Jake Marisnick. Espinoza closed out the 2021 season in Double-A, but he briefly got to the majors for the first time this year.

Through seven relief appearances, he worked his first 18 1/3 MLB innings. He allowed 11 runs on 14 hits and a staggering 16 walks, and his work in the minors wasn’t much better. Between Chicago’s top two affiliates, Espinoza pitched to a 7.55 ERA in 70 1/3 frames. He fanned a decent 24.6% of opponents but walked a massive 13.9% of minor league batters faced. At year’s end, the Cubs placed him on waivers. He went unclaimed and qualified for minor league free agency.

Espinoza is certainly no longer regarded as an elite young talent, but there’s no harm for the Padres in rolling the dice to see if he can better hone his strike-throwing as he moves another year removed from the devastating series of injuries. He’s yet to turn 25 despite having been a well-known prospect for nearly a decade. The Venezuela native averaged just under 94 MPH on his fastball during his MLB work with the Cubs, relying on a low-80s breaking ball as his top secondary pitch.

Tucker, the older brother of Astros star Kyle Tucker, is a former Astros outfielder himself. He hit .222/.281/.403 in 221 MLB games with Houston, Atlanta and Cincinnati from 2015-18. After three seasons in South Korea, Tucker returned to the U.S. on a minor league deal with the Braves in May. The 32-year-old had a decent showing with their top affiliate in Gwinnett, hitting .267/.347/.426 in 75 games.

Carlton, 27, has made nine relief appearances with the Tigers over the past two seasons. The right-hander has allowed six runs in 12 1/3 career innings, striking out eight with four walks. The Florida State product doesn’t throw especially hard, sitting in the low 90s with his fastball. He’s shown excellent control throughout his minor league tenure, though, and he punched out an above-average 27.3% of opponents through 58 1/3 innings with Detroit’s top affiliate in Toledo this year. Owner of a 3.90 ERA in 110 2/3 innings at the top minor league level, he’ll presumably battle for a bullpen spot in Spring Training.

Three Possible Landing Spots For Christian Vázquez

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Fresh off his second World Series title, long-time Red Sox catcher Christian Vazquez is a free agent for the first time in his career. With Willson Contreras inking a five-year, $87.MM deal with the Cardinals, Vazquez is arguably the top free agent catcher left on the board, rivaled by Sean Murphy in the trade market. This position has left Vazquez with a lengthy list of suitors, including the Twins, Padres, D-Backs, Guardians, Diamondbacks, and Giants.

Vazquez, a career .261/.310/.386 hitter, had a two-sided 2022 season. In Boston, the righty hit .282/.327/.432 with eight homers and 20 doubles. However, after being traded to Houston, Vazquez struggled, hitting a weaker .250/.278/.308 while splitting time with Martin Maldonado. Nevertheless, from 2019-2022, the backstop hit a solid .271/.318/416 (95 wRC+). Additionally, Vazquez has been solid behind the plate, having thrown out 34% of runners since his debut in 2014, ranking in the 71st percentile pop time to second base during the 2022 season, and has drawn plus framing marks from publicly available metrics via Statcast, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus. With this solid season and a strong overall career, MLBTR predicts that Vazquez will earn a contract in the three years, $27MM range.

As for Vazquez’s free agent preferences, the 32-year-old has told reporters that a starting role and contending are at the forefront when determining his next home. With those two factors in mind, along with his strong history, here are some potential landing spots for the veteran.

Beginning with one of the more active teams during this year’s free agent period: the Padres. San Diego primarily relied on a tandem of Austin Nola and Jorge Alfaro in 2022, with Friars’ backstops hitting a combined .249/.303/.350 with a middle-of-the-pack wRC+ (88). With the Padres opting to non-tender Alfaro, the club is currently projected to start the 2023 season with Nola and Luis Campusano behind the dish. Neither player should necessarily be a roadblock to surveying the market for a team as aggressively motivated to win now as San Diego.

More importantly, the Padres have not been afraid to open their wallet, most recently signing former Red Sox teammate Xander Bogaerts to a colossal 11-year, $280MM deal. San Diego also offered Aaron Judge $400MM and Trea Turner $342MM, before the two players signed with other clubs. A win-now team searching for a catching upgrade, the Padres appear a logical candidate to pique Vazquez’s interest while simultaneously outbidding competitors.

Cleveland is another potential landing spot for the veteran, with Austin Hedges reaching free agency and leaving the unproven Bryan Lavastida and Bo Naylor as the only backstops on the 40-man roster. Naylor is a highly-regarded prospect, but turning everyday reps behind the dish over to a 23-year-old could be too risky for a team looking to defend their AL Central title. The Guardians posted the second-lowest combined wRC+ for catchers last season (55), utilizing a soft-hitting duo of Austin Hedges and Luke Maile, although Hedges is regarded highly for his defensive work. Vazquez’s addition would improve offensive output while maintaining a high defensive level for the club.

The Guardians have already made one significant free agent addition this offseason, signing Josh Bell to a two-year, $33MM deal with an opt-out after the first season. The team also made an offer for first baseman Jose Abreu, but couldn’t reach the $60MM threshold that the Astros closed in on. A team known for their low budget, the Guardians are also heavily involved in the Murphy trade market but will likely remain a player for Vazquez’s services if his price is not out of their comfort zone.

A third potential (wildcard) team for the backstop is a former AL East rival, the Tampa Bay Rays. Tampa Bay primarily relied on Francisco Mejia, who was widely considered one of baseball’s top minor leaguers, ranked as high as fifth in Baseball Prospectus’ top-100 prospect ranking prior to the 2018 season, during the 2022 season. However, after a solid 2021 season (.260/.322/.417), Mejia struggled in 2022, hitting a meager .242/.264/.381. Poor performance and injuries led Tampa Bay to acquire Christian Bethancourt from Oakland in early July. Bethancourt would perform marginally better, hitting .255/.265/.436 in 151 plate appearances with the Rays.

As a team, Rays’ catchers hit a combined .224/.248/.373 with a below-average wRC+ (78). Vazquez represents an offensive upgrade to these two players, albeit with a higher price point than both Bethancourt and Mejia, who are both on their rookie deals. Nevertheless, Mejia still has one MiLB option remaining, and Vazquez and Bethancourt have experience, although limited, in the field with Bethancourt playing 249 innings at first base during the 2022 season. Admittedly, this landing spot is the least likely of the three.

While the Padres and Guardians present more logical landing spots for Vazquez, competitive teams, like the Rays, may look to shuffle their roster to add a proven veteran backstop talent. Minnesota recently offered Vazquez a contract, and there are sure to be many teams involved in free agent discussions with the catcher as the offseason continues.

Chaim Bloom Discusses Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Extensions

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Xander Bogaerts signed with the Padres on the final day of the Winter Meetings, agreeing to a huge 11-year, $280MM deal.  Despite speculation that the Red Sox were coming closer to re-signing the shortstop, “that was definitely not what our impression was throughout the day and even the day before,” Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo.

The signing officially ended Bogaerts’ time with the Red Sox, a tenure that began when Bogaerts was an international signing in August 2009 and lasted through 10 Major League seasons, two World Series championship teams, and four All-Star appearances for the shortstop.  Bogaerts signed a six-year, $120MM contract extension with the Sox prior to the 2019 season, but chose to exercise his opt-out clause after the first three years of the extension, thus paving the way for his departure from Boston and his new home in San Diego.

Last spring, the Red Sox both signed Trevor Story to a long-term free agent deal and offered Bogaerts only a one-year extension (worth $30MM) on his contract, which were both widely interpreted as signs that the Sox weren’t counting on Bogaerts remaining beyond the date of his opt-out.  Bloom publicly said several times that the Red Sox did indeed want to retain Bogaerts, and reiterated that stance even in the aftermath of the shortstop’s deal with the Padres.

“We wouldn’t have said that if we didn’t mean it,” Bloom said. “I think it became clear to us as things went on that this [Bogaerts’ price tag] was going to go to a point that we just weren’t, irrespective of how we prioritize things, it just wasn’t something that we should do.  It’s hard because of how much we love him.  But it’s just the reality of the situation.”

In fairness to the Red Sox, nobody expected Bogaerts to receive anything near a $280MM contract, and it is understandable why the organization didn’t want to reach that far.  That said, reports suggested the Red Sox offered Bogaerts six years and around $160MM, which didn’t match the seven-year, $189MM deal MLBTR projected Bogaerts would land on the open market.  In addition, the Sox have obviously had exclusive negotiating rights with Bogaerts for years, and could’ve more aggressively pursued an extension at any point before Bogaerts reached free agency.

Bogaerts joins Mookie Betts and Jon Lester as homegrown Red Sox stars who left the team (Bogaerts in free agency, Betts and Lester in trades) after extension talks didn’t materialize into a longer-term deal.  Of course, as Bloom noted, Bogaerts did already ink one extension with the team, putting him “at a different place in his career.”  The Sox have signed relatively few extensions in recent years and only three extensions since Bloom took over the front office following the 2019 season.  Bloom told Cotillo that the team may change how it approaches extension candidates, perhaps with more of a focus on extending players to contracts before they reach salary arbitration.

“Anytime you have a situation where you have a homegrown player who wants to be here and we want him here and it doesn’t happen, I think those are fair questions to ask and those are questions we certainly need to ask ourselves,” Bloom said.  “We haven’t, as an organization, always found a way to come together in those situations. I think it’s something to think about and assess.”

Rafael Devers presents the next big question for the Red Sox in this regard, as the star third baseman is set to reach free agency following the 2023 season.  In a separate piece, a source close to Devers told Cotillo that “Bogaerts’ decision would not make it more likely that Devers would want to leave Boston,” as much as Devers would be “disappointed” at no longer playing with his longtime friend.

Bloom reiterated his team’s interest in keeping Devers, saying that “Raffy, for sure, is somebody we want to build around.”

“I’ve said it, and I know we haven’t demonstrated this to the degree that we’ve hoped to, but we believe in building around homegrown talent.  You want to do it in the right way,” Bloom said.  “It’s certainly something we want to do as often as we can….[Devers] has been somebody that we love and want right at the center of everything we hope to accomplish, obviously in 2023 but more importantly, in the years beyond, because those are the years he’s not under our control. We’re hoping to change that.”

Padres Still Want Starter, Corner Bat

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Even after adding Xander Bogaerts to an eleven-year, $280MM deal, the Padres are looking for more, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports they’re keen to bring in a starting pitcher and a corner bat.

The Padres have been busy this winter, signing Bogaerts and getting deep in the markets of Aaron Judge and Trea Turner before they signed elsewhere. They have seen starters Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea depart in free agency (although Manaea is still available), while they weakened their depth a bit by dealing MacKenzie Gore to Washington in the Juan Soto trade, so it makes plenty of sense that they’ll now focus on bolstering their rotation.

Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and Blake Snell are currently lined up in San Diego’s rotation, while the re-signed Nick Martinez is expected to start the 2023 season there too (although he wound up in the bullpen after ten starts in 2022). Adrian Morejon is an option as a starter, but he only appeared out of the bullpen last year after returning from Tommy John surgery. There’s every chance the Padres still view him as a starter, but given he has two options remaining it wouldn’t hurt for them to add another starter to give them another option.

The Padres luxury tax payroll is projected at around $254MM now, just shy of the second tier of luxury tax penalties. That’d seem to make it unlikely that they’d pursue someone like Carlos Rodon – the top free agent starter available – but then again, it’d be foolish to rule San Diego out of anything at this point. The Padres did meet with Koudai Senga last month, and were reported to have interest in Seth Lugo as well, but either of those two or options like Nathan Eovaldi and Chris Bassitt could make sense. They could also look to the trade market where someone like Pablo Lopez could be available, but having pulled off some big trades in recent years they may be reluctant to part with more prospects.

A corner bat seems like less of a need for the Padres. It’s not entirely clear how the team will align defensively after bringing in Bogaerts, but there seems a good chance that Fernando Tatis Jr. (when he returns from suspension) and Soto handle the outfield corners, and Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth take the infield spots, especially after AJ Preller said (via The Athletic) Bogaerts would at least begin as their everyday shortstop. Tatis will return in late-April so they won’t be without him long, but the team may want to rotate some of their starters through the DH spot and so a utility-type free agent addition could make some sense there.

Latest On Padres’ Pursuit Of Aaron Judge

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The Padres were known to have made a spirited run at Aaron Judge between their pursuit of Trea Turner and eventual agreement with Xander Bogaerts. Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggested this week the Friars were prepared to put forth an offer around $400MM (Twitter link). Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote they never formally made such an offer, but it’s clear the San Diego front office had at least contemplated a proposal that would have topped the offers made by both the Giants and Yankees.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post added some clarity on the matter last night, reporting the Padres were preparing an offer to Judge that’d have reached or exceeded $400MM over a whopping 14-year term. However, Heyman further hears Major League Baseball would have been prepared to veto such an arrangement if the sides had agreed upon it. Of course, it proved to be a moot point once Judge decided he wanted to return to the only organization he’s ever known.

MLB vetoing a record-breaking contract would’ve made for a fascinating story. The league’s justification for doing so would’ve been the contract length was an artificial means for the team of working around the competitive balance tax. A team’s luxury tax number is calculated by adding the average annual values of their commitments (plus player benefits and teams’ contributions to the pre-arbitration bonus pool). The luxury tax hit of any contract is evenly dispersed over the course of the deal regardless of the actual payout of the salaries or bonuses.

If we assume the Padres’ prepared offer was for exactly $400MM over 14 years, the deal would’ve come with an AAV around $28.57MM. That’s true no matter if the money were evenly distributed, frontloaded or backloaded. A $400MM guarantee would have handily topped the $365MM Mookie Betts received on his Dodgers extension and the $360MM in new money on the Mike Trout deal, establishing itself as the largest guarantee in MLB history. Distributing it over a 14-year term, however, would put the $28.57MM average yearly salary outside the top 20 in history.

A lower-payroll team may prefer to stretch a deal an extra season or two to lower their annual payment, but MLB’s concern is the Padres’ offer would’ve been done specifically as a means of circumventing the luxury tax. The Padres have paid the CBT in each of the last two years, and they’re certain to do so again in 2023. The Padres entered the week with their CBT number for 2023 hovering right around the $233MM base threshold. San Diego is responsible for a 50% tax on their first $20MM above the threshold and 62% of their next $20MM in overages, with further penalties thereafter.

Offering something like the nine-year, $360MM deal to which Judge actually agreed with the Yankees would’ve come with a $40MM AAV that stuck the Friars with approximately $22.4MM in taxes. Conversely, a 14-year, $400MM offer would’ve come with an additional tax bill around $15.3MM. The lower number on that contract would’ve also come into play if San Diego had made further additions to the payroll, with the Friars starting at a lesser CBT figure when calculating the tax hit associated with their subsequent pickups.

It’s understandable MLB would be wary of a blatant workaround to the luxury tax, which is designed to disincentivize spending among teams with already large payrolls. Yet it’s also somewhat curious to hear they’d have stepped in to veto that kind of proposal to Judge considering some large-market teams have already increasingly taken to a variation of this strategy: longer-term deals at comparatively lesser annual salaries to lower the CBT obligations.

The Padres themselves pivoted to something very similar the day after Judge turned them down. Bogaerts’ $280MM contract was spread over 11 years. The week before that, the Phillies (another team that paid the CBT in 2022 and is likely to do so again next year) stretched to 11 years to land Turner on a $300MM deal. A few years ago, Philadelphia went to 13 years to ink a then-record $330MM free agent deal for Bryce Harper.

Those commitments of more than a decade for superstars are the most obvious examples of stretching contracts longer than most had anticipated, but one could argue it sometimes occurs for the next tier of player as well. Brandon Nimmo was generally expected to land a five or six-year guarantee this offseason. The Mets went to eight years and $162MM, dropping the AAV to just above $20MM but pushing the total guarantee beyond the anticipated range. Two offseasons ago, the Yankees stretched a $90MM guarantee over six seasons (a $15MM annual salary that was below general expectations) for DJ LeMahieu, who was entering his age-32 season at the time. MLB has approved or is expected to approve — Nimmo’s deal has technically not yet been announced — all those contracts. The top free agent starter remaining, Carlos Rodón, is reportedly looking for a seven-plus year deal this offseason. It’s possible large-market teams will view a lengthier term as more desirable, if Rodón correspondingly drops his ask on per-year salary, for this reason.

Clubs have also built in workarounds for luxury tax purposes on contracts for role players via low-cost player options. Player options are treated as guaranteed money for CBT purposes. Tacking on a player option at the end of a contract thus adds an extra year with regards to determining its average annual value. Frontloading a contract and then attaching a lower-salaried player option at the end serves as an effective tax end-around as well. The player receives the bulk of the money on the deal during the guaranteed seasons and generally anticipates declining the player option. Injuries or underperformance could change that calculus, but the understanding of all involved at the time of the deal is that one of the purposes of the option year is to lessen the AAV.  The Mets (Taijuan Walker), Astros (Jake Odorizzi) and Yankees (Justin Wilson) have all handed out some variation of this contract in recent years. In each instance, MLB has accepted that transaction.

Of course, the league isn’t in position to preemptively create fixed rules to govern how much tinkering with the AAV constitutes luxury tax manipulation. MLB is left to evaluate things on a case-by-case basis. A 13-year deal for Harper that runs through his age-38 season was acceptable, as was an 11-year pact that goes through Turner’s age-40 campaign. A 14-year contract to take Judge through his age-44 season would evidently not have passed muster.

The Judge situation at least raises the possibility of MLB intervening on future deals it considers to be circumventions of the tax. That’d have the potential to lead to a battle with the union. The 2017-21 collective bargaining agreement mandated that all contracts be submitted to the Commissioner’s Office for approval. If the league rejected an agreed-upon deal, the MLB Players Association would have the right to file a grievance challenging the ruling. The new CBA has not yet been released in full, but there’s no indication that provision was altered. It won’t end up mattering in this instance with the defending AL MVP headed back to the Bronx, but it’s an interesting subplot to the negotiations for this winter’s top free agent.

Padres Sign Xander Bogaerts To 11-Year Deal

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December 9: The Padres have officially announced the deal. Chris Cotillo of MassLive provides the full contract breakdown. Bogaerts will make a $5MM signing bonus followed by 11 straight seasons with a $25MM salary.

December 8: The Padres closed out the Winter Meetings with a stunner, reportedly agreeing to an 11-year, $280MM contract with Xander Bogaerts. The deal does not contain any options or opt-out provisions, although it does include a full no-trade clause. Bogaerts is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Bogaerts had spent his whole career in Boston, originally joining the organization as an amateur signee from Aruba back in 2009. He quickly developed into one of the sport’s top prospects and was in the majors by August 2013, a few months before his 21st birthday. Bogaerts claimed two Silver Slugger awards within his first four MLB seasons, but his .283/.339/.409 career slash line through 2017 was roughly league average. He took a major step forward in 2018, reaching another level in his age-25 campaign.

He hit .288/.360/.522 with 23 home runs over 136 games that season, helping lead Boston to 108 wins and a World Series title. Bogaerts sustained that new level of excellence, as he’s been a well above-average offensive performer in each of the four years since then. Going back to the start of the 2018 campaign, the righty-hitting infielder owns a .300/.373/.507 line that checks in 34 percentage points above league average by measure of wRC+.

On the heels of that breakout season, the Red Sox inked Bogaerts to a long-term deal. Boston guaranteed him $120MM between 2020-25, allowing him to opt out with half that money remaining after 2022. Bogaerts played well enough to earn MVP votes in each of the four seasons since signing that extension, making it a no-brainer he’d take his opt-out opportunity unless he and the Red Sox could preemptively agree upon a new deal.

Extension talks this spring didn’t come close, as Boston reportedly offered to tack on one additional season at $30MM. Turning that down was an easy call for Bogaerts’ camp, and he solidified his opt-out decision with another excellent year. Through 631 plate appearances, he hit .307/.377/.456. Bogaerts’ 15 home runs marked his lowest full-season total since 2017, but he finished tenth in the majors (minimum 500 plate appearances) in on-base percentage.

A career-best .362 batting average on balls in play propped up those rate stats, and it’s unlikely he’ll manage to sustain quite so lofty a mark in future seasons. He owns a career .336 BABIP, though, so there’s plenty of room to remain a strong hitter even if his batting average comes down slightly. He’s walked at an average or better clip in each of the past five years, and he’s kept his strikeout rate remarkably consistent around 18% six seasons running.

Bogaerts makes contact, draws walks and typically threatens or tops 20 homers per season. He’s one of the more well-rounded offensive players in the game, and he’ll step right into an already loaded San Diego lineup. Bogaerts joins Manny Machado, Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. in the middle of a lineup that should be incredibly difficult for opposing pitchers to navigate. That quintet has 11 combined Silver Slugger awards, and they’ll bring an incredible collection of weapons from both sides of the dish.

Where to pencil everyone in on the diamond is a decision the front office and manager Bob Melvin will work out over the coming months. San Diego’s middle infield was already strong. Tatis, two years removed from inking a $341MM extension to serve as the franchise shortstop, will return from his performance-enhancing drug suspension within the first month of next season. Ha-Seong Kim is a Gold Glove caliber shortstop who had a solid .251/.325/.383 line in his second big league campaign. Jake Cronenworth is an above-average defender at second base and owns a .257/.339/.443 mark through his first three seasons.

At least for the moment, Bogaerts seems likely to step in at shortstop. Scott Boras categorically rejected the possibility of Bogaerts moving off the position earlier this offseason. Perhaps the strength of the Padres’ offer changed that thinking, but it’s also possible the Friars rearrange their infield to accommodate his wishes. San Diego had already been considering the idea of moving Tatis to the outfield after his lost season in deference to Kim. Pushing Tatis into left or center field now seems especially likely. Bogaerts could step in at shortstop, with Kim moving to second base and Cronenworth taking over an uncertain first base position.

Bogaerts’ glove has been the subject of immense attention throughout the free agent process. The 6’2″, 218-pounder has a larger build than many shortstops, and he’s drawn some criticism for lacking prototypical range. Public defensive metrics roundly panned his glove throughout his career, with Defensive Runs Saved pegging him below par every year from 2014-21. Concerns about his long-term defensive outlook seemingly played into Boston’s low extension offer this past spring, but Bogaerts posted the strongest defensive metrics of his career in 2022.

In 1249 2/3 innings this past season, he rated as five runs above average by DRS and four runs better than par, according to Statcast. Concerns about his lateral quickness into his mid-30’s figure to persist, but his strong 2022 campaign at least reduced any urgency to move him off shortstop immediately.

The Padres clearly aren’t much concerned about Bogaerts’ long-term defensive fit. Owner Peter Seidler and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller have been hellbent on adding another star regardless of position. They reportedly made offers well north of $300MM for both Trea Turner and Aaron Judge, but both players declined and signed elsewhere. Those failed pursuits of Turner and Judge made the Padres a fascinating wild card this offseason, and while reports initially suggested they were unlikely to dip back into the shortstop market, they pivoted and made a run at Bogaerts.

An 11-year term will take him through his age-40 campaign. That matches the term Turner received from Philadelphia, but Bogaerts was generally expected to command a lesser deal in light of his long-term defensive concerns. Turner’s $300MM guarantee does beat the one received by Bogaerts, but the $20MM gap was closer than most had envisioned.

The deal shatters MLBTR’s pre-offseason prediction of $189MM over seven seasons. It’s the second-largest free agent deal in franchise history — trailing only Machado’s ten-year, $300MM pact. The $280MM guarantee is the seventh-largest for a free agent in MLB history, with Judge and Turner topping it thus far among this offseason’s free agents.

The cost for the Padres goes well beyond the terms of the offer itself. The specific financial breakdown hasn’t yet been reported, but the contract comes with a $25.45MM average annual value. That’s the relevant consideration for luxury tax purposes, and it sends the Padres well into tax territory. Roster Resource projects the Friars for a tax number around $254MM at present. That’s $21MM north of the $233MM base threshold, and $1MM above the second tier of penalization.

San Diego has paid the luxury tax in each of the last two seasons, and it looks all but certain they’ll do so again. They’re taxed at a 50% rate for every dollar spent between $233MM and $253MM, coming out to $10MM in fees. They’ll be charged 62% on any overages between $253MM and $273MM, and they’d face heightened penalties thereafter. As things currently stand, the Bogaerts deal sets them up for a tax bill around $10.6MM. Further additions or subtractions will alter that number, but it’s virtually certain they’ll be into competitive balance tax territory yet again.

It’s worth noting that at $27.27MM and $25.45MM respectively, both Turner and Bogaerts accepted lower average annual values than expected while also reaching an 11-year term that had only happened once before in free agency when Bryce Harper signed for 13 years.  With infielders Corey Seager, Nolan Arenado, Francisco Lindor, and Anthony Rendon receiving AAVs ranging from $32.5-35MM dating back to 2019, it may be surprising that Turner and Bogaerts fell well below that range.  It’s all about that CBT – the Phillies and Padres reduce their luxury tax hits and tax bills for taking on the players’ late-30s seasons, which project to have little value.

Bogaerts rejected a qualifying offer from the Red Sox, meaning the Padres will also have to surrender draft choices to add him. As a team that paid the luxury tax in 2022, they’re subject to the highest penalties. San Diego will be stripped of its second and fifth-highest selections in next year’s amateur draft, and they’ll forfeit $1MM in international signing bonus space.

While the Padres load up for another run at the powerhouse Dodgers in the NL West, the Red Sox will have to move on from a homegrown star who’s played a key role with the franchise for nearly a decade. It’s an abrupt about-face for the organization. While it had long looked as if Bogaerts would depart given the lack of progress on an extension in Spring Training, reports Wednesday morning suggested their talks with his camp were gaining momentum.

It seemed as if he might remain in Boston for the entirety of his prime, but the Padres’ offer wound up handily surpassing Boston’s. Pete Abraham and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe report the Red Sox had offered a six-year term worth around $160MM. That was more in line with general pre-offseason expectations and contained a slightly higher annual salary than the deal Boagerts received, but San Diego’s willingness to tack on an extra half-decade in guaranteed money made the gap enormous.  Somehow, the $137.375MM the Red Sox spent on Masataka Yoshida and Kenley Jansen earlier Wednesday almost seems quaint in comparison to the Bogaerts contract.

The Red Sox will receive compensation for Bogaerts’ departure, but it’s at the lowest tier since Boston also paid the competitive balance tax in 2022. They’ll receive a pick after the fourth round in next year’s draft. That’s of small consolation, and the far greater concern is how the club will move forward. Boston signed Trevor Story to a $140MM guarantee last offseason, giving themselves some cover at shortstop. Should they prefer to keep Story at second base, they could check in with the two remaining top free agent shortstops, Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson.  Regardless, Boston is certainly not done after chief baseball office Chaim Bloom said Monday he hopes to add “seven, eight, nine” players to the team this offseason.  Starting pitcher and the catcher position are two items remaining on the shopping list even if shortstop is handled in-house.

Correa and Swanson are sitting pretty with Turner and Bogaerts having exceeded expectations in terms of total dollars.  While the Boras Corporation representing both Bogaerts and Correa could be viewed as a conflict of interest, the agency managed to get Bogaerts signed with a team that hadn’t been expected to sign a shortstop at the outset of the offseason.

It’s a deal of massive proportions, one that could drastically shake up both leagues. After a couple attempts came up empty, the Padres landed their desired superstar. The Red Sox’s optimism of a few hours ago was dashed by a determined organization that now spends like a big-market behemoth. Bogaerts lands one of the largest contracts in MLB history, setting the stage for a fascinating bidding war for the two star shortstops who remain unsigned.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post was first to report Bogaerts and the Padres had agreed to an 11-year, $280MM contract. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported the deal did not come with any opt-out provisions and included a full no-trade clause.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Padres Sign David Dahl To Minor League Deal

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The Padres have signed outfielder David Dahl to a minor league deal, according to Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune.

Dahl, 28, spent the past season at Triple-A with the Brewers and Nationals, slashing a combined .279/.345/.442 with ten home runs in 359 plate appearances.

He was once one of the top prospects in all of baseball, rising as high as 22nd on Baseball America’s overall list prior to the 2015 campaign. Drafted tenth overall by the Rockies in 2012, he quickly rose through their ranks and had an impressive rookie season in 2016, hitting .315/.359/.500 in 237 plate appearances and lining himself up to be a mainstay of the Rockies outfield for many years to come.

He suffered a stress fracture in his rib in spring training in 2017, and developed back spasms while rehabbing that summer, leading the Rockies to shut him down for the entire year. He returned in 2018, belting 16 home runs and posting a .273/.325/.534 line. That was followed up by an even better year in 2019, as Dahl earned his first trip to the All Star game amid a season where he wound up with 15 home runs and a .302/.353/.524 line in 100 games.

Unfortunately, 2019 was his last year of above-average production, and Dahl’s offense regressed considerably in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign as he battled shoulder and back injuries. That year, he hit just .183/.222/.247 without a home run and was released at the end of the season. The Rangers inked him to a one-year, $2.7MM deal that winter in a bid to help him rediscover his offensive potential, but Dahl would continue his struggles, slashing .210/.247/.322 in 220 plate appearances before being released mid-season.

Dahl has spent most of his time in the big leagues in left field, where he’s logged -10 Defensive Runs Saved over his five seasons. He graded out below average in center, but was worth 3 DRS in right field in about 500 innings there over his big league career.

While Dahl is now three years removed from his last above-average season, he’ll play the 2023 season at age-29 so is still young enough that he could still find his offensive groove again with the Padres’ Triple-A affiliate, and try and find an opportunity in the big leagues if injuries strike.

2022 Rule 5 Draft Results

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The 2022 Rule 5 draft will begin at 4pm Central time today at the Winter Meetings in San Diego. This will be the first time since 2019 that the meetings will be held in person, as the 2020 edition was virtual because of the pandemic and the 2021 draft was cancelled entirely due to the lockout.

As a refresher, the Rule 5 draft is a way for players potentially talented enough for the big leagues but blocked by their current clubs to find opportunities elsewhere. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of their original signing and were signed in 2018 or earlier, and any players 19 or older and signed in 2019 or earlier, who are not on a club’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.

The clubs will draft in reverse order of the 2022 standings, with no club obligated to make a selection when it’s their turn. If they do make a pick, they will have to pay $100K to the team they select from. The selected players must stay on the active roster (or injured list) for the entire 2023 season or else be placed on waivers. If they clear waivers, they must be offered back to their original team. They cannot be optioned to the minors. The most recent edition in 2020 saw some notable names move around, such as Akil Baddoo going from the Twins to the Tigers while Garrett Whitlock went from the Yankees to the Red Sox.

This post will be updated with the results as they come in…

First Round

1. Nationals: RHP Thad Ward (Red Sox) (hat tip to Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com)
2. A’s: 1B Ryan Noda (Dodgers)
3. Pirates: LHP Jose Hernandez (Dodgers)
4. Reds: OF Blake Sabol (Pirates); Reds later traded Sabol to Giants for cash or a player to be named later
5. Royals: pass
6. Tigers: RHP Mason Englert (Rangers)
7. Rangers: pass
8. Rockies: RHP Kevin Kelly (Guardians); Rockies later traded Kelly to Rays for cash considerations
9. Marlins: RHP Nic Enright (Guardians)
10. Angels: pass
11. D-backs: pass
12. Cubs: pass
13. Twins: pass
14. Red Sox: pass
15. White Sox: RHP Nick Avila (Giants)
16. Giants: pass
17. Orioles: RHP Andrew Politi (Red Sox)
18. Brewers: RHP Gus Varland (Dodgers)
19. Rays: pass
20. Phillies: RHP Noah Song (Red Sox)
21. Padres: LHP Jose Lopez (Rays)
22. Mariners: RHP Chris Clarke (Cubs)
23. Guardians: pass
24. Blue Jays: pass
25. Cardinals:RHP Wilking Rodriguez (Yankees)
26. Yankees: pass
27. Mets: RHP Zach Greene (Yankees)
27. Braves: pass
29. Astros: pass
30. Dodgers: pass

Second Round

  • All teams passed

The minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft also occurred this afternoon. Those players will not go onto the selecting teams’ 40-man roster. A few former major leaguers changed uniforms. They include Hector Perez from Baltimore to the Rays, Josh Palacios from the Nationals to the Pirates, Jared Oliva from the Pirates to the Angels, Nick Burdi from the Padres to the Cubs, Peter Solomon from the Pirates to the D-Backs and Jonathan Arauz from the Orioles to the Mets.

Seth Lugo Drawing Widespread Interest

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DECEMBER 7: The Angels, Nationals and Dodgers are also in the market, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic.

DECEMBER 6, 8:01pm: The Red Sox are also expressing interest in Lugo, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive (on Twitter).

DECEMBER 6, 6:39pm: Right-hander Seth Lugo has been drawing interest as a starting pitcher and Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that working as a starter is Lugo’s preference as well, with the Padres one of several teams interested in him.

It’s been a while since Lugo has been tried out in a rotation role for more than a brief stretch. His career high for starts in a big league season is 18, which came back in 2017. Since that time, he’s been primarily working out of the bullpen, serving as an effective reliever for the Mets.

In 278 career games, only 38 of them have been starts, but Lugo has a career 3.48 ERA, 24.8% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 44.1% ground ball rate. He’s fared much better out of the ’pen, as his ERA is 2.91 there while 4.35 as a starter, with more strikeouts as a reliever to match.

Despite that split, as mentioned, it’s been quite some time since Lugo’s been given an extended stretch in the rotation. That means most of those stats came from Lugo’s first two years in the big leagues, when he made 26 of those 38 career starts. It’s possible he’s capable of producing better results now that he has more experience. He also has a larger pitch mix than the average reliever, something that could help him move through a lineup a few times. Last year, he had four pitches that he threw at least 13.7% of the time, with his curveball leading the way at 33.5%, followed by his four-seamer at 29.3%, his sinker at 21.9% and his slider at 13.7%. He also has a changeup that he mixed in 1.6% of the time, though it’s been 7.1% for his career.

For the Padres, they lost a couple members of their rotation to free agency in Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea, while also trading MacKenzie Gore to the Nationals. Nick Martinez opted out of his contract but was quickly re-signed and seems to have a chance of retaking a rotation spot himself, after getting bumped to the bullpen. They currently have Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell in the front three spots. It would be surprising to see them go into the season with the last two spots in their rotation dedicated to unproven options like Martinez and Lugo, especially when they just reportedly offered Trea Turner $342MM. But it’s possible they could also add a fourth starter and have those Martinez and Lugo battle for the fifth spot with one of them going to the bullpen if everyone is healthy. Though Lugo reportedly prefers to start, it’s unknown how he would value a non-guaranteed starting role on a contender like the Padres against a clearer path to starting on a less-competitive team.

San Diego’s payroll limits are an ongoing question. As mentioned, they just made a massive offer to Turner, but some reporting indicates they were willing to make an exception for him and won’t necessarily dedicate those resources to other players. As of right now, Roster Resource calculates their competitive balance tax figure at $230MM, just barely under the lowest CBT threshold of $233MM. With the club still seeking to upgrade in the rotation and elsewhere, going over the line seems inevitable. Lugo isn’t likely to break the bank as a back-end rotation candidate but every dollar over the line will count. Since the Padres are set to be a third-time payor, they will be subject to a 50% tax on all spending over the line and even higher penalties if they go over by $20MM or more.

Padres Made Strong Offer For Aaron Judge

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3:22pm: Although Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic doesn’t say exactly how far the Padres went in their Judge pursuit, he reports the team did not offer Judge $400MM.

9:25am: Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Padres’ offer was $400MM over 10 years.

9:15am: The Aaron Judge bidding was widely believed to be a two-team battle between the Yankees and Giants. In the end, Judge is returning to the Bronx but there was a surprise third team that sat down at the table. Judge reportedly flew to the Winter Meetings in San Diego and met with the Yankees, Giants and Padres, per Jeff Passan of ESPN. The Padres came in with a “significant” offer, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, while Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that Judge turned down higher offers elsewhere to return to the Yanks. A report from Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic indicates that Judge met with Padres owner Peter Seidler and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller but “it is believed they never got the chance to make a formal bid.”

The fact that the Padres came close on Judge is noteworthy since this is the second time this week that they have reportedly been willing to put a massive deal in front of a player. After Trea Turner signed with the Phillies for $300MM over 11 years, it was reported that the Friars actually made Turner a higher offer of $342MM. The specifics of that offer aren’t known, so it’s possible that it contained deferrals or options that would change the context, but it was surely a huge number regardless. The details of what they floated to Judge aren’t known either, but since Judge is in agreement with the Yankees for $360MM over nine years, it can be fairly assumed that the Padres were willing to get somewhere in that vicinity.

The Padres have never really been considered heavy hitters when it comes to baseball spending, but they have completely changed that reputation in recent years. Up until recent years, they had only once had an Opening Day payroll in nine-figure territory, which came back in 2015, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They started ramping that up with big free agents deals for Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado, a massive extension for Fernando Tatis Jr., and a whole host of trades for stars on other teams. As a result, their Opening Day payrolls jumped to $174MM in 2021 and $211MM in 2022 and they ended up paying the luxury tax in both of those years thanks in part to in-season trades.

This week’s offers to Turner and Judge seem to indicate that they still haven’t reached the ceiling of where they are willing to go. Roster Resource pegs their 2023 payroll at $210MM with a competitive balance tax figure of $230MM. Signing Turner or Judge would have likely adding something around $30-40MM to each of those numbers. It’s possible they could have then looked to lower them by making trades, but they also still have other needs on the roster to address, such as filling out their starting rotation. Since the club is likely to be a third-time payor in 2023, they will face escalating penalties this time around. Any spending over $233MM will result in a 50% tax, with a 62% tax for going over $253MM and a 95% tax on spending over $273MM.

The question now will be whether the Padres will now dedicate those resources elsewhere or if they viewed Turner and Judge as especially elite talents that were worth stretching their comfort zone. Though many top free agents have flown off the board this week, there are still plenty of them left. With Turner gone, three of the “big four” shortstops remain in Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. Signing a shortstop is a bit of a clunky fit on the roster since the Padres already have Ha-Seong Kim and Tatis, but they were willing to do it with Turner, perhaps by moving Tatis to the outfield. Would they pursue the same plan with one of the other shortstops? There’s also the starting rotation to think about, since the Friars lost Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger to free agency. While Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom are now signed, would the Padres consider a big splash on the last remaining ace in Carlos Rodón? With Judge off the board, the best remaining outfielder in free agency is Brandon Nimmo. Will the Padres turn their attentions to him?

Similar questions will now be asked about the Giants, as they were surely near Judge’s final price as well. Morosi reports that Judge had offers, plural, beyond what he accepted from the Yankees. Since the reporting indicates this came down to a three-team race, that seems to imply that both the Padres and the Giants were willing to go beyond the $360MM figure Judge eventually accepted.

Unlike the Padres, the Giants still have plenty of room before on their ledger before thinking about the luxury tax. Roster Resource has their payroll at $139MM with a CBT number of $156MM. Even if they added about $40MM or so with a Judge signing, they would have been well shy of the lowest luxury tax threshold of $233MM. It’s been reported for months that the Giants were interested in pursuing Judge as well as the marquee shortstops in this offseason. It now seems quite likely that they will pivot from Judge to those shortstops and be connected to them in rumors in the weeks to come. Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports reports that this is indeed the plan, with Carlos Correa atop their list, though they will also be looking for another starting pitcher and outfielder, to pair with yesterday’s signing of Mitch Haniger.

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