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Blue Jays Outright Cam Eden

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Blue Jays outfielder Cam Eden went unclaimed on waivers and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Buffalo, per a team announcement. Toronto had not previously announced a DFA for Eden, though that’s not required before placing a player on waivers. His outright frees up a spot on the team’s 40-man roster.

Eden, 25, was Toronto’s sixth-round pick in 2019 and made his big league debut in 2023. Appearing in just five games, the speedster went 1-for-6 with a single and a pair of strikeouts. The bulk of Eden’s season was spent in Buffalo, where he posted a .257/.354/.333 batting line. As evidenced by that stat line, Eden is quite light on power (just three home runs in 460 plate appearances) but draws walks at an above-average clip. He’s also a major threat on the bases, where he went 53-for-57 in attempted steals.

Overall, Eden hasn’t had a full season of above-average production at the dish in pro ball, with the exception of his 2021 campaign in High-A (.274/.382/.402). But he’s a plus runner with more than 2000 innings of professional experience in center field who’ll now stick with the Jays organization and give them some depth in the upper minors, should injuries create a necessity for help in the outfield, some speed off the bench and/or a right-handed bat.

Latest On Brewers’ Managerial Vacancy

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The Brewers are suddenly looking for a manager for the first time in almost a decade, with Craig Counsell’s stunning move to the Cubs yesterday. Some of the options they are considering as a replacement, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, are current Brewers bench coach Pat Murphy, Blue Jays bench coach Don Mattingly, Astros Bench coach Joe Espada, Dodgers first base coach Clayton McCullough, Astros hitting coach Troy Snitker and former player Rickie Weeks.

Counsell departing Milwaukee wasn’t totally unforeseen. He was on an expiring contract in 2023 and extension talks didn’t come to fruition. But with David Stearns moving on from the Brewers to become president of baseball operations for the Mets and then firing manager Buck Showalter, many assumed Counsell would follow him to Queens. But Counsell joining the division-rival Cubs was not foreseen or known to be on the table.

Brewers principal owner Mark Attanasio spoke on the matter yesterday, per Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, and it seems he was surprised as well. “When he first told me, I said, ‘Are you messing with me?’” Attanasio added that “It is what it is” and that the club intends to continue putting their best foot forward without Counsell. “We have a really good thing. I give Craig credit for helping to build that, and for adding all these coaches, all of whom have stayed. So we’re going to look for a manager who can continue having a terrific clubhouse culture and that can help us keep winning and hopefully get over the hump in the playoffs.”

As for the Mets, despite the generally spendthrift behavior of Steve Cohen in recent years, they apparently never got close to the $40MM over five years that Counsell secured from the Cubs. Per Andy Martino of SNY, there was a sense that his interest in coming to the Mets wasn’t actually that high and he was merely using them to drive up the bidding. That would track with his reported interest in resetting the market for managerial salaries. Perhaps he wasn’t especially willing to do that in Queens since he grew up in the Midwest and Chicago is a better fit for him, or perhaps the Mets were content to hire a manager with lesser demands, but the end result is that the Mets landed first-time manager Carlos Mendoza instead.

As for the Brewers’ immediate concerns in relation to this, though it may sting that Counsell joined a division rival instead of the Mets, the focus now will be on filling the void. It seems they weren’t terribly proactive while Counsell was still available, with Attanasio stating that he and general manager Matt Arnold “thought it was going to muddy things if we started interviews with third parties” but that Arnold has “conducted a couple of internal interviews, for what that’s worth.” That suggests they are still in the early stages of their search, with still a wide list of potential candidates being considered, as mentioned above.

Murphy, 65 this month, has a small amount of managerial experience. He was in the Padres’ organization in June of 2015 when Bud Black was fired as manager. Murphy got the gig on an interim basis for the second half of that season but Andy Green took over for the 2016 campaign. Murphy then came to the Brewers to serve as bench coach under Counsell and has garnered plenty of interest from clubs with managerial openings since, but has stayed in Milwaukee.

Mattingly, 63 in April, has plenty of experience as a bench boss. He was at the helm for the Dodgers from 2011 to 2015 and then for the Marlins from 2016 to 2022, before joining the Blue Jays as bench coach for the 2023 season.

Espada, 48, has coaching experience with the Marlins and Yankees but has been the bench coach of the Astros since the start of the 2018 season. He has been connected to various managerial gigs in the past few years but is still with the Astros, who just saw Dusty Baker step out of the skipper’s chair. It’s been speculated that Espada could take over in Houston but nothing is official there.

McCullough, 44 next month, has been the first base coach of the Dodgers since the 2021 campaign. He recently interviewed for the managerial opening in Cleveland but that position has now been filled by Stephen Vogt.

Snitker, 35 next month, is the son of Atlanta manager Brian Snitker. He has been co-hitting coach for the Astros for the past five seasons alongside Álex Cintrón.

Weeks, 41, played in the majors from 2003 to 2017, most of that in Milwaukee. He was hired by the Brewers for a player development role going into the 2022 season.

Seven Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Seven players in this year’s free agent class have been tagged with the qualifying offer, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (X link). Those players are:

Previous reports had already indicated that Teoscar Hernández, Mitch Garver, J.D. Martinez and Rhys Hoskins had not received the QO. The same is true of Jorge Soler and longer-shot candidates like Kenta Maeda and Kevin Kiermaier.

The QO is valued at $20.325MM this offseason. Players have until next Tuesday to decide whether to accept. The seven players who were tagged all seemed virtual locks to both receive and decline it. It’s hard to envision anyone in this group taking a one-year pact.

Indeed, the more surprising aspect of this year’s class were the number of players who were not qualified. Last winter, 14 players were tagged with the QO. Borderline cases Joc Pederson and Martín Pérez wound up accepting. Teams were far more risk-averse this winter, shying away from the potential lofty commitment for all but the market’s top options.

[Related: Which Picks Would Each Team Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent?]

With QO decisions now made, every free agent is allowed to begin negotiations with other teams. The five-day window of exclusive negotiation with their incumbent club is over. If these players sign elsewhere, their teams would be entitled to compensation.

The Twins, as a revenue sharing recipient, stand to receive the greatest compensation. Assuming Gray beats a $50MM guarantee (a good bet), Minnesota’s compensatory pick would fall after the first round in next year’s draft. The Cubs, as a team that neither receives sharing nor paid the luxury tax, would land a choice that falls between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round for Bellinger’s departure.

San Diego, Toronto and Philadelphia all surpassed the CBT threshold this year. They’d therefore receive the lowest compensation — a draft choice between Rounds 4 and 5. The Angels finished the season right on the border of the $233MM threshold and don’t yet know whether they paid the tax. As a result, they’re still awaiting word on whether they’d land the pick before the third round or after the fourth if Ohtani heads elsewhere.

Blue Jays Acquire Brendon Little, Select Mitch White

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The Cubs have traded left-handed pitcher Brendon Little to the Blue Jays in exchange for cash considerations, the Blue Jays announced. The 27-year-old has been selected to the 40-man. Right-hander Mitch White has also been added back to Toronto’s 40-man roster.

Little is a former first-round pick. The southpaw has the briefest of MLB résumés, consisting of a single relief appearance for the Cubs in 2022 (at Rogers Centre as a COVID substitute). He averaged 94.5 MPH on his sinker in that game but allowed three runs while recording two outs.

The Pennsylvania native spent this past season in Triple-A, working to a 4.05 ERA through 73 1/3 innings as a long reliever. Little struck out a league average 23.1% of batters faced but issued walks at a lofty 12% clip. The stuff was nevertheless intriguing enough for the Jays to give him a 40-man spot, which keeps him from becoming a minor league free agent. He has a full slate of option years and can bounce between Toronto and Triple-A Buffalo so long as he holds that place on the roster.

White is a more familiar name for the Toronto fanbase. Acquired from the Dodgers at the 2022 deadline, he has had a few stints on the MLB roster. He hasn’t found much big league success as a Jay, working to a 7.60 ERA across 55 2/3 innings. After being outrighted from the 40-man roster in August, however, he finished the year strong in Buffalo. The 28-year-old posted a 1.69 ERA in four September starts for the Bisons, holding opponents to a .160/.259/.253 line in the process.

That was enough for the Jays to prevent White from leaving in minor league free agency. If he keeps his place on the 40-man throughout the offseason, they’ll need to carry him on next year’s MLB roster or make him available to other clubs because he has exhausted his minor league options.

Blue Jays Exercise Two-Year Club Option On Chad Green

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The Blue Jays announced this morning that the club has exercised its two-year club option on the services of veteran right-hander Chad Green. Green will now earn $21MM total across the 2024 and 2025 seasons. Green signed an unusual contract with Toronto this past offseason that afforded the club a three-year, $27MM team option, which if declined would offer Green a one-year, $6.5MM player option. If both of those options were declined, the Blue Jays would then have a final two-year, $21MM option. Evidently, the first club option and Green’s player option were both declined before Toronto picked up the two-year option.

Green, 32, missed most of the 2022 and ’23 campaigns while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. A look at Green’s basic run prevention stats would indicate that the right-hander struggled in his return to action in 2023, given his 5.25 ERA that was 17% worse than league average. That doesn’t tell the whole story, however, as Green pitched just twelve innings with Toronto this year and had excellent peripheral stats. He struck out a whopping 30.8% of batters faced while walking just 7.7% with one home run allowed, giving him a much more palatable 2.67 FIP.

That sort of performance is much more in line with Green’s career numbers. After an uneven rookie season where he was used primarily as a starter in 2016, Green became one of the most reliable set-up men in the game from 2017-2022, as he posted a 2.96 ERA (147 ERA+) with a 3.01 FIP and a 33.4% strikeout rate. Impressive as those numbers are, they’re actually somewhat bogged down by a brief return to starting in 2019. Over the course of his entire career, Green sports a sterling 2.88 ERA across 338 innings out of the bullpen. That’s the sixth-best figure among all relievers with at least 300 innings of work since Green’s debut in 2016, surpassed only by Josh Hader, Kenley Jansen, Raisel Iglesias, Blake Treinen, and Aroldis Chapman.

Of course, it’s an open question whether or not Green can reach those heights again in his age-33 and -34 campaigns. After all, Green heads into his mid-thirties coming off a lengthy rehab from surgery. While his velocity did not appear to be impacted during his brief run in the majors this year, it’s hard to say what sort of impact the surgery could have on him over a full season. Between his age, the fact that he hasn’t pitched a full season since 2021, and the volatility of relievers in general, there’s a fair bit of risk in offering Green a two-year, $21MM guarantee even as the righty clearly has the potential to be among the better relievers in baseball.

Given that combination of risk and potentially significant reward, the two-year $21MM pact seems like a reasonable price point for both sides of the arrangement. The interesting structure of the contract left MLBTR readers divided in a recent poll, with each of those four possible outcomes (Green hitting free agency and each of the three potential options being picked up) receiving between 20% and 30% of the total vote. That being said, with the Toronto bullpen scheduled to lose Jordan Hicks and Jay Jackson to free agency this offseason, retaining Green gives the club a quality set-up man to pair with Erik Swanson in front of closer Jordan Romano in 2024.

Managerial/Coaching Notes: Showalter, Kotsay, Ramos, Hudgens

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Buck Showalter is one of “several finalists” to be the Angels’ next manager, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (via X).  Reports have linked Showalter to Anaheim’s vacancy for almost a month, just a few days after the Mets announced that the veteran skipper wouldn’t be back in their dugout next season.  Morosi’s update would seemingly imply that the Angels have moved into at least a secondary stage of their search, though public details have been rather scarce to date about who exactly is on the list of candidates.

Beyond Showalter, such names as infield coodinator Benji Gil, former Brewers/Red Sox manager Ron Roenicke, and former Angels players like Torii Hunter, Darin Erstad, and Tim Salmon have all been mentioned as possible candidates for the manager’s job, though it isn’t clear how many proper interviews has taken place.  USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote today that the Halos “plan to interview” Hunter, Erstad, and Salmon, which would seem to run counter to the idea that the club has already moved onto its group of finalists.  Regardless, Showalter seems to be firmly in the mix, and his track record would seemingly give him some advantage in the race, as Roenicke is the only other candidate with past experience as a big league manager.

Some more on other managerial and coaching situations from around the game…

  • The Mets’ search might be down to just Craig Counsell and Carlos Mendoza, as reported earlier today by SNY’s Andy Martino.  Earlier this week, Martino reported that Athletics manager Mark Kotsay was also under consideration from New York, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (X link) today wrote that “Kotsay no longer is part of” the Mets’ search.  The A’s did grant Kotsay permission to speak with the Mets, though it doesn’t appear that Kotsay will be departing the Oakland dugout.  The former 17-year MLB veteran has been Oakland’s manager for the last two seasons, with a miserable 110-214 record that is hardly Kotsay’s fault, given that he was tasked with overseeing a team in a massive rebuild.
  • The Phillies announced that Cesar Ramos will be the team’s new bullpen coach for the 2024 season.  Ramos has working in the Phillies organization for the last four seasons, and was the pitching coach for Philadelphia’s Triple-A affiliate in 2022-23.  Ramos is best known for his eight-year pitching career with the Padres, Rays, Angels, and Rangers from 2009-16.
  • The Blue Jays have reassigned hitting strategist Dave Hudgens to another role in the organization, Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi reports.  Hudgens was one of three batting-related coaches on the Jays’ staff (along with hitting coach Guillermo Martinez and assistant hitting coach Hunter Mense) this season, and some changes to this department were expected after most of Toronto’s lineup struggled in 2023.  Hudgens has been on the Blue Jays’ coaching staff since the 2018-19 offseason, previously working as the club’s bench coach.
  • Padres assistant farm director Mike Daly will manage the team’s Triple-A affiliate next season, according to The Athletic’s Dennis Lin.  It is something of an unusual hire, as Daly has no professional experience as a manager, coach, or player at any levels.  Daly’s long career of front office work began with six years in Cleveland’s front office as a baseball operations staff and scout from 2001-06, then 15 seasons with the Rangers that saw him rise to assistant GM status.  Daly also worked with A.J. Preller during that stint in the Texas front office, and in 2021 Daly became one of many of Preller’s past Rangers associates to join San Diego’s organization.

Report: MLB Grants Yariel Rodriguez Free Agency

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Right-handed pitcher Yariel Rodriguez has officially been declared a free agent by Major League Baseball, reports Francys Romero (X link). He is now free to sign with an MLB team.

Rodriguez became one of the more intriguing options on the pitching market when he was granted a release from his contract with NPB’s Chunichi Dragons a month ago. He has been conducting showcases for MLB clubs in the few weeks since but was barred from officially signing with a major league team until today. There’s nothing to suggest he’ll sign imminently, of course, but this removes the procedural hurdle he still needed to clear.

A native of Cuba, Rodriguez turns 27 in March. That’s atypically young for a free agent pitcher. He worked out of the bullpen over parts of three seasons with the Dragons. Rodriguez had a dominating showing in 2022, when he pitched to a 1.15 ERA with a 27.5% strikeout rate over 54 2/3 innings. He worked as a starter for his home country during the World Baseball Classic. Once that event concluded, Rodriguez decided not to report back to the Dragons. He sat out the remainder of the 2023 season — the team placed him on the restricted list — before his camp secured his release.

MLB teams figure to have differing evaluations on Rodriguez’s viability as a starter. He’s an intriguing arm with promising stuff and success at the second-highest level of professional baseball in the world. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported last month that the Rays were among 15 teams with scouts in attendance for one of Rodriguez’s recent workouts in the Dominican Republic. This afternoon, Romero listed (on X) 10 clubs that had shown interest in the hurler: the Astros, Yankees, Rangers, Pirates, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Phillies, White Sox, Mets and Giants.

Blue Jays, Whit Merrifield Decline Mutual Option

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The Blue Jays informed reporters that second baseman Whit Merrifield has become a free agent (relayed by Kaitlyn McGrath of the Athletic). Both parties declined their end of the $18MM mutual option in his contract. Merrifield will collect a $500K buyout and head to the open market for the first time.

Toronto acquired Merrifield, who turns 35 in January, from the Royals at the 2022 trade deadline. It was a buy-low move for the two-time hits leader, who carried a .240/.290/.352 line at the time. Merrifield turned things around in Canada, hitting .281/.323/.446 down the stretch. He carried that into the first half of this year, posting a .286/.342/.392 slash to secure his third career All-Star nod.

Unlike 2022, Merrifield didn’t perform well in the second half. He limped to a .212/.250/.288 showing from August 1 onward, although his overall season line was still respectable. He concluded the year with a .272/.318/.382 line with 11 home runs through 592 trips to the plate. He stole 26 bases while getting thrown out 10 times.

Merrifield has plus contact skills and is one of the best players in a weak class of free agent middle infielders. He’s arguably the top second baseman available. The White Sox have reportedly identified him as a target, while teams like the Red Sox, Mariners and Pirates could explore the market.

The Jays may remain in that bidding as well. Cavan Biggio, rookie Davis Schneider and Otto López are among the in-house options. They’re certainly not going to offer Merrifield a salary approaching $18MM on an annual basis, but a two-year pact at a lesser value could be attainable. Jean Segura landed a $17MM guarantee over two years last winter when he was coming off a .277/.336/.387 platform showing.

Previewing Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

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We’re a few days from the beginning of the offseason, with the World Series concluding no later than Saturday. One of the first orders of business is the qualifying offer, which will have to be issued within five days of the beginning of the offseason.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received one before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

Yesterday, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald looked at which pitchers were potential QO recipients. Today, we’ll take a look at the offensive class.

No-Doubters

This trio is well on its way to nine-figure deals. Ohtani should set the all-time guarantee record, while Bellinger could surpass $200MM. Chapman had a rough second half offensively, which drops him well behind the top two hitters in the class. There’s virtually no chance he’d accept the QO, though, as his plus glove and slightly above-average offense gives him a shot at five or six years.

Likely Recipient

Hernández had a middling season in Seattle, hitting .258/.305/.435 through 676 trips to the plate. While he connected on 26 home runs, he did so with his lowest batting average and on-base percentage since his 2020 breakout with the Blue Jays. Hernández helped carry the Mariner lineup in June and August but was a well below-average player in every other month.

The down year may knock the 31-year-old from an absolute lock to reject the QO to “merely” very likely to do so. He hit .283/.333/.519 in over 1300 plate appearances between 2020-22. Teams can point to this year’s home/road splits as a potential factor in Hernández’s offensive downturn. He hit only .217/.263/.380 at Seattle’s pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park while running a typical .295/.344/.486 line on the road. Perhaps that’s an indicator he’s not a great fit for the Mariners specifically, but it also boosts his chances of declining a QO to land a multi-year deal elsewhere.

Corner outfielders like Avisaíl García and Kyle Schwarber have found four-year guarantees with less consistent career track records than Hernández has compiled. While neither of those players were attached to draft compensation, Hernández could find a four-year pact even with the QO — particularly in a free agent class so light on impact bats.

Possible Candidates

Entertaining a qualifying offer for Garver would have seemed absurd a few months ago. He’d been limited to 54 games in 2022, working mostly as a designated hitter, by a flexor injury that eventually required season-ending surgery. Garver lost another six weeks to a left knee sprain early this year. By the time he returned, Jonah Heim had cemented himself as an All-Star catcher.

That left Garver as a high-quality backup and potential DH. Since returning from the knee injury, he has mashed his way to the middle of a fearsome Texas lineup. Garver hit 17 homers in 81 regular season games after his activation, posting a .271/.369/.495 line. He stepped in behind the plate while Heim was out with a wrist injury, then moved seamlessly back to DH upon the latter’s return. Garver has connected on three more homers in 51 postseason plate appearances, running a .244/.333/.489 mark in October.

This kind of offense isn’t out of nowhere. Garver hit 31 homers in 93 games for the Twins in 2019. He’s a career .252/.342/.483 hitter. When healthy, he’s a very good offensive player. He’s certainly one of the best hitting catchers in the league. The health caveat has been important, though, as he has only once topped 100 games in a season. Garver has spent time on the injured list every year since 2019 and has caught just 354 innings over the last two seasons. He’ll turn 33 in January.

Is Garver capable of holding up as a team’s #1 catcher? That’s debatable. He wouldn’t need to do that for Texas, as he could remain in the DH/#2 catcher role alongside Heim if the Rangers retain him. There’s a good chance he’d accept a QO if offered — he has never made more than $3.9MM in a season — but the Rangers run lofty payrolls and don’t have many other key free agents. Texas showed a (regrettable in hindsight) willingness to gamble on a qualifying offer for Martín Pérez after a strong platform year in 2022. They could do the same with Garver.

Hoskins lost the entire 2023 season after tearing the ACL in his left knee during Spring Training. He had progressed to taking batting practice and running the bases in recent weeks, leaving open the possibility for a return as a DH had the Phillies made the World Series.

With Philadelphia coming up a game short, the ’23 campaign goes down as a complete lost year. Heading into the spring, Hoskins projected as one of the best hitters in the upcoming free agent class. He’s a consistent 25-30 homer bat who takes plenty of walks. Hoskins is a career .242/.353/.492 hitter. Even in the absence of defensive or baserunning value, he tends to accrue two to three wins above replacement annually.

Since his profile isn’t built on athleticism, Hoskins may well go into 2024 the same player he was expected to be six months ago. He may still be looking for a one-year deal that allows him to retest the market after a stronger platform season, when he’d be entering his age-31 campaign.

A qualifying offer could be mutually beneficial. Hoskins would be able to play out his rebound year with the only organization he has ever known, while Philadelphia would retain a middle-of-the-order presence without long-term downside. The biggest wild card may be Bryce Harper’s positional future. He played DH and first base after undergoing Tommy John surgery last November. If the Phils are comfortable with his arm back in right field, retaining Hoskins at first and pushing Kyle Schwarber to DH is reasonable.

While Martinez feels like a player who should have received a qualifying offer at some point in his career, he has not. A midseason trade rendered him ineligible before his free agent trip in 2018. The Red Sox opted against the QO when he hit free agency last offseason. He signed a one-year, $10MM pact to reunite with hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc in Los Angeles.

Martinez turned in his best offensive season since 2019. He popped 33 homers in 479 plate appearances, posting a .271/.321/.572 slash. A career-high 31.1% strikeout rate is a little alarming, but it’s not all that important so long as Martinez is hitting for the kind of power he did this past season. He made hard contact (a batted ball at 95+ MPH) on 55.1% of his balls in play. That’s his highest mark of the Statcast era and a 98th percentile figure in MLB.

The Dodgers could certainly entertain the qualifying offer. They have less than $100MM in salary commitments for 2024. Given their prior spending habits, they have as much short-term payroll space as any team. If Martinez replicated his ’23 production, he’d easily be worth a $20.5MM investment for one season.

In most years, this would be a fairly easy call for L.A. Complicating matters this particular winter: Ohtani’s presence. The Dodgers are expected to be a key suitor for the likely AL MVP. Martinez made all of one start in left field during his age-35 season. Ohtani’s free agency will carry beyond the deadline for the Dodgers to decide whether to issue Martinez a QO (and past his allotted five-day window to decide whether to accept if offered). A player who accepts a QO receives automatic no-trade rights until June 15 of the following season.

If Martinez accepts, the Dodgers are either committed to playing him in left field on most days or (less likely) out of the Ohtani mix. They may not want to risk limiting their flexibility within the first week of the offseason.

Soler is very likely to decline a $13MM player option. The right-handed slugger will head back to free agency after a strong season in Miami. Soler hit .250/.341/.512 while blasting 36 home runs across 580 trips to the plate. He walked at a strong 11.4% clip while striking out at a manageable 24.3% rate.

The 2023 version of Soler is a middle-of-the-order power presence. He has demonstrated that ability in spurts throughout his career, including a 48-homer showing in Kansas City five seasons back and a monster second half to help the Braves to a championship in 2021. He’s not a consistent impact bat, though. Between 2020-22, he ran a middling .219/.312/.425 line in over 1000 plate appearances. For a well below-average corner outfielder who is best suited as a designated hitter, league average offense won’t cut it. Soler was only marginally above replacement level over that three-year stretch overall.

A player’s platform year performance is the biggest factor in whether he receives a qualifying offer. Soler’s 2023 campaign would be good enough to warrant it on many teams. Are the Marlins one of them? Miami would be hard-pressed to find consistent power production if they let him walk. At the same time, they’re an organization that typically runs payrolls below $100MM. Soler accepting a QO would be a legitimate possibility. Miami may not want to risk tying up a fifth of its player budget to a DH with an up-and-down track record.

Long Shots

Acquired alongside Gabriel Moreno in the Daulton Varsho trade, Gurriel had a solid season in Arizona. He hit a career-high 24 homers with a .261/.309/.463 slash in 592 plate appearances. He was a first-time All-Star, largely on the strength of an otherworldly performance in May. Gurriel went ice cold midseason but rebounded with a .291/.338/.497 showing from the start of August through the regular season’s conclusion. He hasn’t contributed much offensively in Arizona’s World Series run.

Heading into his age-30 season, the Cuba native has a case for a solid multi-year deal. He’s a good contact hitter with 20+ homer power but middling walk rates. After years of inconsistent defensive production, he has played strong left field defense in the desert. Gurriel is a good player, although a salary in excess of $20MM is probably beyond Arizona’s taste.

Shortly before the Gurriel trade, the Jays signed Kiermaier to a one-year, $9MM deal. Their career division rival turned in a strong season in Toronto, pairing league average offense with sublime defense. He hit .265/.322/.419 over 408 trips to the plate. In just under 1000 innings in center field, Kiermaier rated anywhere between 12 and 18 runs above average by measure of Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved.

That certainly earns him a raise relative to his last free agent trip, when Kiermaier was coming off a platform year cut short by hip surgery. Potentially more than doubling his salary by issuing the QO seems like a bridge too far, however. Kiermaier turns 34 in April and has a lengthy injury history. Committing over $20MM for one season would be a bet on him staying healthy all year.

Ineligible

Bell and Candelario changed teams midseason, rendering them ineligible for the QO. Belt, Conforto and Turner have all previously received the offer. Of this group, only Candelario and perhaps Turner would likely have gotten a QO even if they were eligible.

Two Starters Who Buoyed The Blue Jays In 2023

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The 2023 season was something of a disappointment in Toronto, as the club once again was swept out of the AL Wild Card series after a third place finish in the AL East. As the club spent 2023 treading water, several key players such as star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (whose struggles MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk discussed last month), catcher Alejandro Kirk, and veteran outfielder George Springer all took significant steps back this year. Meanwhile, the pitching side of the roster faced its own challenges. Right-hander Ross Stripling departed via free agency last offseason for San Francisco and while veteran right-hander Chris Bassitt was a capable replacement this year, 2022 AL Cy Young finalist Alek Manoah was not replaced so easily. Manoah, 25, posted a disastrous 2023 season that saw him sport a 5.87 ERA and 6.02 FIP across 19 starts.

With all the shortcomings of the 2023 squad in Toronto, it might seem somewhat surprising that the club managed to post essentially the same season as they did last year. Fortunately, the Blue Jays managed to turn their starting rotation into a considerable strength this year, even as their best arm from last season was pulled from the starting five due to ineffectiveness. While a solid, 11-start return from veteran lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu and a typically excellent campaign from ace righty Kevin Gausman both were major assets, the steps forward taken by right-hander Jose Berrios and left-hander Yusei Kikuchi did the most to return Toronto to contention in 2023, and provide reason for optimism when looking ahead to 2024.

Both pitchers had their first full seasons in Toronto in 2022: Berrios was acquired at the 2021 trade deadline, while the club signed Kikuchi to a three-year deal in free agency ahead of the 2022 campaign. That season was a difficult one for both players, as each posted an ERA north of 5.00 and the worst full-season fWAR totals of their careers. With Kikuchi under contract for another two seasons and Berrios signed on through 2028, both signings were looking nothing short of disastrous for the Blue Jays after their first year.

Fortunately, however, both pitchers were able to turn things around in 2023, allowing Toronto to absorb the loss of Manoah’s elite production much more easily. Berrios saw his 5.23 ERA in 172 innings last year drop to a much more palatable 3.65 figure in 189 1/3 frames. While he was 26% worse than league average last year by measure of ERA+, he managed to post a season that was actually 16% better than league average by that same metric this season. Kikuchi, meanwhile, saw nearly as drastic an improvement as his similar 5.19 ERA (74 ERA+) improved to a far more respectable 3.86 (110 ERA+) figure. What’s more, after making 12 of his 32 appearances out of the bullpen in 2022, Kikuchi made 32 starts in 2023, allowing his innings total to skyrocket from 100 2/3 to 167 2/3.

As good as those seasons were, of course, they weren’t enough to get the Jays over the hump in 2023. Looking ahead to 2024, the question for GM Ross Atkins and the rest of the front office is a simple one: Just how sustainable were the improvements for their mid-rotation arms? Fortunately for the fans in Toronto, the improvement both players found in 2023 is largely backed up by more advanced metrics.

After striking out just 19.8% of batters faced in 2022, Berrios improved that figure to 23.5% this year while maintaining a low 6.6% walk rate. Both of those numbers are slightly better than his career averages of 23.2% and 7.1%, respectively, which helps lend credence to the idea that Berrios’s return to form could be sustainable. Berrios saw improvements in other areas, too, as his BABIP dropped from .328 in 2022 to just .289 in 2023, while his strand rate rose from 70.9% to 76.4%.

BABIP and strand rate are both typically regarded as fluky year-to-year stats, giving them little value when predicting future performance in such small sample sizes. In this case, however, they back up that Berrios’s 2022 campaign during which he led the league in both earned runs and hits allowed may have simply been an outlier: Berrios’s 2023 BABIP is almost identical to his career .290 mark entering the 2022 campaign. What’s more, advanced metrics such as SIERA indicate that not only were Berrios’s 2022 and 2023 seasons similar to each other in terms of underlying performance, but they were similar to his body of work throughout his entire career. Berrios posting a 4.13 SIERA in 2022 and a 4.08 SIERA this season. While the 2023 figure is a few points better, both are in the same ballpark as his 4.04 SIERA in seven seasons since becoming a major league regular.

While Berrios’s 2023 campaign indicates that 2022 was merely an aberration in what has otherwise been a consistent career as a mid-rotation arm, Kikuchi’s season this year seems to indicate a significant step forward. Among 140 pitchers with at least 100 innings of work in the majors during 2022, Kikuchi’s 5.62 FIP ranked in the bottom three, only better than Jonathan Heasley and Josiah Gray. While Kikuchi struck out an impressive 27.3% of batters faced, he walked a whopping 12.8% of batters faced. What’s worse, those free baserunners Kikuchi offered opposing teams often found themselves scoring on home runs thanks to Kikuchi’s fly balls leaving the year for home runs at an astronomical 23.7% rate that was by far the highest in the majors.

Fortunately, Kikuchi’s command and control issues improved considerably this year, even as his strikeout rate ticked down slightly to 25.9%. He nearly halved his walk rate in 2023, cutting his free passes down to a 6.9% rate that was actually in the 73rd percentile among all qualified pitchers, per Statcast. Kikuchi also managed to make improvements regarding the long ball, though they weren’t as drastic as his cut down on walks. After putting up the league’s worst barrel rate of 14.8% in 2022, Kikuchi managed to cut that figure to 9% this season, good for the 29th percentile among all qualified major leaguers.

While that’s still below average, Kikuchi’s more reasonable 15.3% home run rate allowed him to post a career year in 2023; this year was the first time the 32-year-old managed to post an above average season by both ERA- (8% better than league average) and FIP- (4% better than league average). SIERA, meanwhile, was actually even more bullish on Kikuchi than Berrios this year, as the lefty posted a 3.86 figure that put him in the same range as quality arms like Logan Gilbert and Sonny Gray while outperforming the likes of Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell.

With Berrios once again looking like the quality mid-rotation arm he appeared to be throughout his career in Minnesota and Kikuchi having joined him at a similar status in 2023, the Blue Jays look to be extremely well set up headed into 2024 with a front four of Gausman, Berrios, Kikuchi, and Bassitt in the starting rotation. That should allow them to be aggressive in looking to revamp the club’s offense as they attempt to return to the postseason in 2024 and win their first playoff game since 2016.

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