Arbitration Breakdown: J.D. Martinez
Over the last few weeks, I have been discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.
After struggling earlier in his career with the Astros, J.D. Martinez has come into his own with the Tigers and had a career year in 2015, making a strong case for a large raise in his second year of arbitration eligibility. Martinez had 38 home runs and 102 runs batted in, while hitting .282. After earning $3MM in 2015, our model projects him to get a healthy $4.8MM raise to $7.8MM.
As it turns out, that projection does fall within the filing figures submitted today when the sides were unable to work out a deal before the deadline. But the model is closer to Martinez’s own $8MM submission — which would reflect a $5MM raise — than Detroit’s $6MM figure — which would give him just a $3MM bump.
As player and club work to reach a compromise — or, if not, to prepare for a hearing — they will be looking closely at similarly-situated past cases. But it is difficult to find reasonable comparables for Martinez. After a player’s first year of arbitration eligibility, arbitration salaries in subsequent years are generally based only on the most recent year. For Martinez, this puts him in an esteemed class of hitters who were in the signature 30/100 range for home runs and RBIs, most of whom get healthy raises. In the previous nine years, only two such players received one-year deals in arbitration—mainly because the other seven guys who would have been eligible inked multi-year deals instead.
Notably, both of those players had much better cases than Martinez: Chris Davis hit 53 home runs with 138 RBIs in 2013, leading to a $7.05MM raise, while Jacoby Ellsbury hit .321 with 39 stolen bases in addition to his 32 home runs and 105 RBIs in 2012, en route to a $5.65MM raise. These players certainly look like ceilings for Martinez, so it seemed unlikely he could pin down $5.65MM or above — a doubt that his representatives obviously shared, as reflected in the filing number.
However, nearly everyone else in Martinez’s service class in recent years appears to be a floor. In the last nine years, the third highest raise for a second-year eligible hitter who did not sign a multi-year deal went to Hunter Pence, who received only $3.4MM in 2011. He hit .282 with 25 home runs and 91 RBIs. Although Pence stole 18 bases, far more than Martinez’s three, I have found that power is much more important than speed in arbitration cases and Martinez’s superior power numbers should help him easily out-earn Pence’s $3.4MM raise. The fact that Pence’s cases was five years ago only makes that clearer.
Lucas Duda was another recent player with 30 home runs going into his second year of eligibility, but he only hit .253 and only had 92 RBIs, so his raise was just $1.6375. He seems like an even less relevant comparable.
The fact that no player in Martinez’s service class has gotten a one-year deal with a raise anywhere between Pence’s $3.4MM raise and Ellsbury’s $5.65MM raise made it difficult to tell how accurate our $4.8MM projection might be. It may be that some other player could be discussed as a comparable, but it is hard to see who’d be suitable.
In cases like this, there are often multi-year deals that teams and players are both willing to sign in the face of this type of uncertainty, so that could happen here — as they’ve previously discussed — especially now that there’s a fairly sizable gulf to bridge. But even in that case, it is not clear who could be a model, since most of the multi-year deals for similar power hitters have been inked earlier in player’s careers.
In the end, I view the $4.8MM raise as a reasonable mark, with the entire $3.4MM to $5.65MM range appearing defensible. Given the filed values, Martinez seems to have the more reasonable position, though both parties will have plenty of incentive to work something out rather than trusting the decision to an arbitration panel.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: Friday
The deadline for teams to exchange arbitration figures with eligible players is 1pm ET today. Dozens of arb agreements figure to flow in over the next few hours, and we’ll keep track of the smaller arb agreements in this post. All projections referenced are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz and can be viewed on the full list of 156 players that filed for arbitration this year. Remember also that you can keep track of everyone that has avoided arbitration by checking out MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.
Onto the agreements…
- Shortstop Zack Cozart is in agreement with the Reds for an undisclosed sum, per a team announcement. He projected at $2.9MM in his second year of eligibility after a promising start to the 2015 season was cut short by a serious knee injury.
- The Diamondbacks announced that they have avoided arbitration with righty Rubby De La Rosa for an undisclosed sum. He was projected at $3.2MM but, per Jack Magruder of Fanragsports.com (on Twitter), will earn only $2.35MM.
- Reliever Fernando Rodriguez settled with the Athletics for $1.05MM — beneath his projected $1.3MM — per the Associated Press.
- Dodgers infielder Justin Turner will earn $5.1MM next season, Jon Heyman reports on Twitter. That’s just a shade under his $5.3MM projection.
- The Braves settled with reliever Arodys Vizcaino for $897,500, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets. He had a $1.1MM projection entering the fall.
- Both Zach Putnam will earn a $975K salary next year after agreeing with the White Sox, per a club announcement. That’s $175K over the projected arb value of the Super Two.
- The Cardinals settled with first baseman Matt Adams for $1.65MM, Heyman tweets. That’s a small bump over his $1.5MM projections. The team is also in agreement with right-hander Seth Maness, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The Super Two reliever projected at $1.2MM but will receive $1.4MM, per MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch (via Twitter).
- Righty Tom Koehler receives a $3.5MM payday from the Marlins, per Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The team gets a break on the $3.9MM that had been projected. The team also has an agreement with righties David Phelps and Carter Capps, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tweets. Heyman adds (via Twitter) that Phelps will earn exactly his projected amount of $2.5MM. Capps was predicted to earn $800K, but his salary is yet to be reported.
- The Diamondbacks agreed to a $4.35MM rate with first-year-eligible starter Shelby Miller, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports on Twitter. He had projected at $4.9MM. Notably, Miller comes in just ahead of fellow 3+ service-class pitcher Harvey (who is covered below). Fellow Arizona hurler Patrick Corbin will earn $2.525MM next year, Passan also tweets.
- The Nationals have agreed with infielder Danny Espinosa for $2.875MM, Jon Heyman tweets. He gets a slight bump over his $2.7MM projection in his second season of arb eligibility.
- Nolan Arenado will receive a $5MM salary from the Rockies in his first season of eligibility, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. That’s exactly what fellow star young third baseman Manny Machado settled for as well, though Arenado was a Super Two. As Swartz explained recently, those two players’ cases may well have been tied together despite some important distinctions. He also explained why Arenado might not reach his sky-high $6.6MM projection in actuality.
- The Orioles have agreed with starter Miguel Gonzalez for $5.1MM, Eduardo Rodriguez of the Baltimore Sun reports on Twitter. Gonzalez projected for $4.9MM.
- Outfielder Chris Coghlan agreed at $4.8MM with the Cubs, MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat tweets. That’s quite a nice increase over his projected $3.9MM. Also agreeing with Chicago was reliever Pedro Strop, who gets $4.4MM, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (via Twitter). He had been projected at $4.7MM.
- Both righty Michael Pineda (for $4.3MM) and infielder/outfielder Dustin Ackley ($3.2MM), according to Passan (via Twitter) and Jon Heyman (Twitter link). Those numbers largely track the projected amounts of $4.6MM and $3.1MM, respectively.
- Danny Duffy will play at $4.225MM next year after reaching terms with the Royals, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com reports (Twitter links). Catcher Drew Butera, meanwhile, will get $1,162,500 from Kansas City. Both represented small bumps over their projected values of $4MM and $1.1MM.
- Marlins closer A.J. Ramos will get $3.4MM in 2016, Heyman reports (Twitter links). Teammate Adeiny Hechavarria, meanwhile, will take down $2.625MM. Both first-year-eligible players went over their projections ($2.8MM and $2.3MM, respectively).
- The Mets will pay $4.325MM to Matt Harvey and $3MM to shortstop Ruben Tejada for 2016, ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin reports (Twitter links). Harvey approaches, but doesn’t quite reach, his $4.7MM projection. Though he’s still recovering from an unfortunate leg injury suffered during the post-season, Tejada will take home a cool half-million more than had been projected.
- Righty Joe Kelly has agreed with the Red Sox at $2.6MM, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. He falls a fair sight shy of the $3.2MM that MLBTR projected. Though he reached ten wins on the year, Kelly scuffled to a 4.82 ERA over his 134 1/3 innings.
- Righty Drew Hutchison agreed with the Blue Jays for $2.2MM, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports on Twitter. He falls short of a $2.6MM projection after a tough 2015 campaign.
- The Tigers have reached terms with shortstop Jose Iglesias for $2.1MM, per another Heyman tweet. The deal also includes some incentives, per the report. That’s a healthy jump up over the $1.5MM projection for the slick-fielding infielder, who did have a strong 2015 season.
- The Mariners announced that they reached agreement with lefty Charlie Furbush and righty Evan Scribner. Furbush will receive $1.7MM, while Scribner will get $807.5K, Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reports.
- Both shortstop Jean Segura and righty Wily Peralta are under contract with the Brewers, per a team announcement. Segura gets $2.6MM after being projected at $3.2MM, per Heyman (Twitter link). Matt Swartz’s system pegged Peralta at $2.8MM, and that’s exactly what he’ll earn, according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (via Twitter).
There are plenty more after the jump:
2016 Arbitration Filing Numbers
MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s noon deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.
As MLBTR has previously explained, 156 players officially filed for arbitration (after some eligible and tendered players had already reached agreement). Of those, 34 players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still reach agreements before their hearings (which will take place between February 1st and 21st). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint.
We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining — those where the player files for at least $4.5MM — in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker (with two as-yet-unreported exceptions).
- Jake Arrieta, Cubs: $13MM versus $7.5MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)
- Aroldis Chapman, Yankees: $13.1MM versus $9MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays: $11.8MM versus $11.35MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Neil Walker, Mets: $11.8MM versus $9.4MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)
- J.D. Martinez, Tigers: $8MM versus $6MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Trevor Plouffe, Twins: $7.95MM versus $7MM (Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press, via Twitter)
- Zach Britton, Orioles: $7.9MM versus $5.6MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)
- Brandon Belt, Giants: $7.5MM versus $5.3MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Lucas Duda, Mets: $7.4MM versus $5.9MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Garrett Richards, Angels: $7.1MM versus $5.3MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Mike Moustakas, Royals: $7MM versus $4.2MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)
- Nate Eovaldi, Yankees: $6.3MM versus $4.9MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Mitch Moreland, Rangers: $6MM versus $4.675MM (Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, via Twitter)
- Kevin Jepsen, Twins: $5.4MM versus $5.05MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Jason Castro, Astros: $5.25MM versus $5MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Jeurys Familia, Mets: $4.8MM versus $3.3MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)
- Ivan Nova, Yankees: $4.6MM versus $3.8MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)
Arbitration Roundup: 34 Players Remain Unsigned
Now that the dust has settled from the morning’s rash of arbitration-avoiding deals, it is time to look out for reports on the arbitration numbers filed by players and teams that have yet to reach agreement. As MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker shows, of the 156 players to file, 34 have still yet to agree to terms on a contract. (Lorenzo Cain exchanged figures but is said to be nearing a two-year deal with the Royals, so he isn’t included.)
Remember, deals avoiding arbitration can still be reached even after the exchange of numbers. Hearings will be scheduled between February 1st and 21st, so there is plenty of time for the sides to come together before making their cases. In 2014, for the first time ever, no arbitration hearings took place, but several took place again last season.
That being said, some teams are known for their “file and trial” approach to arb-eligible players, meaning that they refuse to negotiate after the exchange deadline and go to a hearing if agreement has not been reached. Of those clubs believed to continue to utilize such a strategy, only the Blue Jays (Josh Donaldson, Jesse Chavez) and Rays (Drew Smyly) have open cases remaining. Also, the Reds reportedly will take any sub-$2MM contracts to a hearing, which could suggest that reliever J.J. Hoover may appear before a panel. The Astros are also said to be taking a “file-and-go” approach with catcher Jason Castro.
Other notable players who have yet to agree upon a 2016 salary include Jake Arrieta of the Cubs; Brandon Belt of the Giants; Zach Britton of the Orioles; Aroldis Chapman of the Yankees; Neil Walker, Lucas Duda, and Jeurys Familia of the Mets; Mike Moustakas of the Royals; Trevor Plouffe of the Twins; and A.J. Pollock of the Diamondbacks. Be sure to keep a close eye on MLBTR’s pages for information on those and other situations, and in the meantime click here to review MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s projections for all arbitration-eligible players.
Nationals Avoid Arbitration With Ben Revere
The Nationals have struck a one-year deal with just-acquired outfielder Ben Revere for $6.25MM with the possibility of a bit extra in performance bonuses, Jon Heyman reports ( Twitter links). Revere had been projected by MLBTR to earn a $6.7MM salary next year.
Revere, a former Super Two, earns just over a $2MM raise above his earnings last year. He benefited from a strong number of plate appearances (626) and solid overall .306/.342/.377 batting line with 31 stolen bases and 84 runs. Of course, Revere’s arb earnings are limited by his low output of home runs (2) and runs batted in (a career-high 45).
It’s not yet immediately clear how Revere will be utilized in D.C., but he should be a part of a somewhat flexible three-man rotation along with veteran Jayson Werth and youngster Michael Taylor. He’s controllable for another year through arbitration process.
In the trade that brought Revere to the Nationals, the team reportedly agreed to send enough cash to offset the difference between his salary and that of Drew Storen. While it isn’t clear exactly how that will work, it’s worth noting that Storen agreed today to a $8.375MM salary for 2016.
Athletics Avoid Arbitration With Josh Reddick
The Athletics have agreed to a $6.575MM price tag with outfielder Josh Reddick, Jon Heyman reports on Twitter. MLBTR had projected him at an even $7MM, so he’ll come in a fair bit below that number.
Reddick played the 2015 season on a $4.1MM salary. He’ll earn a raise of just under $2.5MM for his final season before reaching open-market eligibility.
Soon to turn 29, Reddick has a consistent track record of above-average offensive production with solid pop. While he hasn’t returned to the 32-homer power he showed in 2012, he’s also drastically cut down on the huge strikeout rate he carried that year. All told, he’s slashed .255/.317/.441 in 2,370 plate appearances dating back to 2011.
With a glove that usually rates quite well — despite a drop-off last year — and very good overall contributions on the basepaths, Reddick has generally landed in the 2.5-to-3.5 WAR range for the last half-decade. That makes him a relative bargain at his agreed-upon rate, and leaves him positioned to draw quite a bit of interest as a free agent next winter.
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Pirates, Mark Melancon Avoid Arbitration
2:24pm: Melancon will receive $9.65MM for his final season before free agency, according to Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (on Twitter).
2:03pm: The Pirates and closer Mark Melancon have avoided arbitration, according to a club announcement. Financial terms have yet to be disclosed, although the All-Star right-hander was projected to earn an even $10MM by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Melancon, a client of Relativity Sports, is entering his final season of club control before reaching the open market as a free agent. With his agreement in place, the Pirates have seemingly avoided arbitration with all of their eligible players, although they’ve yet to announce backup catcher Chris Stewart‘s reported two-year contract extension.
Yankees Claim Lane Adams From Royals, Designate Ronald Torreyes
The Yankees announced on Friday that they have claimed center fielder Lane Adams off waivers from the Royals and designated infielder Ronald Torreyes for assignment in order to clear a spot on the 40-man roster.
The fleet-footed Adams, 26, reached Triple-A for the first time this past season, struggling through 37 games there on the heels of a strong Double-A campaign. Overall, the Oklahoma native batted a combined .281/.347/.445 with 16 homers and 31 stolen bases — his third consecutive season with 30 or more steals. Last winter, Baseball America rated him 15th among Royals farmhands, calling him a plus-plus runner and a plus defender with a fringe-average arm and a bit of pull power. Ultimately BA pegged him as a fourth outfielder. Given his strong defensive chops, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a club take a flier on Adams.
Torreyes, who turned 23 in September, had only recently been claimed off waivers himself before today’s move. Torreyes got a brief cup of coffee with L.A. in 2015 — his Major League debut — collecting a pair of hits in six at-bats/eight plate appearances. Torreyes has seen most of his professional defensive work come at second base, though he does have significant experience at shortstop (144 games) and third base (65 games) as well. He’s also seen a bit of time in the corner outfield. This past season, Torreyes batted .261/.308/.347 between Double-A and Triple-A across three organizations: the Astros, Blue Jays and Dodgers. While he’s never shown much pop, Torreyes has hit for average pretty consistently in the minors while displaying the aforementioned defensive versatility. He’s a lifetime .287/.330/.358 hitter at Triple-A and an overall .298/.353/.409 hitter in the minor leagues.
Dodgers, Kenley Jansen Avoid Arbitration
The Dodgers and standout closer Kenley Jansen have avoided arbitration, according to a club announcement. Jon Heyman tweets that Jansen will receive a hefty $10.65MM salary for 2016 — his final season before qualifying for free agency. Jansen, a client of the Wasserman Media Group, had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn an $11.4MM payday this winter.
Latest On Doug Fister’s Asking Price
Right-hander Doug Fister and his agents at PSI Sports Management have been seeking a two-year contract worth a guaranteed total of about $22MM this offseason, a source tells ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter link).
Fister has reportedly drawn interest from a number of clubs this offseason, including the Phillies, Marlins and Tigers, although each of those teams has added rotation help since initially being connected to the soon-to-be 32-year-old. MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko tweets that the Orioles like Fister quite a bit but aren’t interested in going anywhere near Crasnick’s reported price tag in order to lure him to Baltimore.
Entering the 2015 season, Fister was part of what looked to be a star-studded class of elite and second-tier arms that were slated to hit the open market this winter. However, the 2015 campaign was the worst of his career by nearly any measure. Fister, of course, began the season in one of the game’s deepest rotations (Nationals), but he surprisingly struggled to the point where he lost his starting job and was moved to the bullpen. While he’s never thrown hard in the past, Fister opened the season averaging just over 86 mph on his fastball and eventually landed on the disabled list in mid-May with a bout of forearm tightness. He returned about a month later but didn’t see much in the way of improved results. All told, he recorded an uncharacteristic 4.60 ERA across 15 starts in his second (and presumably final) season with the Nats. In those 15 starts, Fister logged 86 innings (about 5 2/3 innings per outing) and struck out just 48 hitters — an average of 5.2 per nine innings. Fister’s 4.63 FIP, 4.60 xFIP and 4.70 SIERA all matched his unsightly ERA, and his 42 percent ground-ball rate out of the rotation this season was the lowest of his career.
While there’s clearly a long list of red flags surrounding Fister, the upside he brings to the table is also tantalizing. From 2011-14, Fister was one of baseball’s most underrated player, recording a pristine 3.11 ERA with 6.5 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 and a 50.5 percent ground-ball rate across 750 2/3 innings. He landed on the DL a few times in that stretch for a strained lat muscle and a pair of strained muscles in his side — nothing arm-related — and averaged 188 innings per season in that time (201 per season when factoring in the playoffs, where he owns a 2.60 ERA in 55 1/3 innings). If he’s back to full health and able to replicate his 2011-14 success, a $22MM contract would be a steal. Of course, if his 2016-17 seasons are more like his 2015 campaign, such a commitment would look unsightly in a hurry.