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Red Sox’ Future Payroll Features Highly Paid Stars

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2020 salary terms are set to be hammered out in the coming days. But what about what’s owed to players beyond that point? The near-term economic picture remains questionable at best. That’ll make teams all the more cautious with guaranteed future salaries.

Every organization has some amount of future cash committed to players, all of it done before the coronavirus pandemic swept the globe. There are several different ways to look at salaries; for instance, for purposes of calculating the luxury tax, the average annual value is the touchstone, with up-front bonuses spread over the life of the deal. For this exercise, we’ll focus on actual cash outlays that still have yet to be paid.

We’ll run through every team, with a big assist from the Cot’s Baseball Contracts database. First up is the Red Sox:

Red Sox Total Future Cash Obligation: $355.85MM

*includes Chris Sale contract deferrals

*includes remaining obligations to David Price (traded to Dodgers)

*J.D. Martinez can opt out of contract after 2020

(click to expand/view detail list)

Which 15 Players Should The Yankees Protect In An Expansion Draft?

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The last MLB expansion draft took place on November 18th, 1997.  Each of the 28 existing teams was able to initially protect 15 players, with the Devil Rays and Diamondbacks mostly alternating picks to fill their new rosters.

The first round consisted of one player being taken from each of the 28 teams, giving the Devil Rays and D’Backs 14 players each.  At that point, each of the 28 teams was able to protect an additional three players.  After the completion of the second round, each team added another three players to their protected list.  In the third round, the Rays and D’Backs would each take an additional seven players, with each new club ending up with 35 in total.

Detailed rules can be found here, but basically each team’s best prospects were not eligible for the draft.  Still, about a quarter of the players chosen were minor leaguers.  Also, players with no-trade clauses or ten-and-five rights had to be put on protected lists unless they waived those rights.  And there would be no reason to protect players eligible for free agency.

We thought it would be fun to determine each team’s current 15-player protected list, as if a new two-team expansion draft is scheduled for November.  For simplicity’s sake, only players with MLB experience will be eligible for our mock expansion draft.

We’ll begin by shaping the Yankees’ 15-player protected list.

Free agents James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, DJ LeMahieu, J.A. Happ, and Brett Gardner will be excluded.  Gardner has a club option the Yankees might like to pick up, but we’ll assume they don’t have to burn a protected spot on him.

Gerrit Cole, Giancarlo Stanton, and Aroldis Chapman automatically take up three of the 15 spots due to their no-trade rights.  That leaves 12 more players to protect.  The MLBTR staff generally agreed that these eight additional players should be protected:

Aaron Judge
Gary Sanchez
Luis Severino
Gleyber Torres
Miguel Andujar
Gio Urshela
Jordan Montgomery
Chad Green

That leaves four spots for these 16 players:

Zack Britton
Luis Cessa
Thairo Estrada
Mike Ford
Clint Frazier
Ben Heller
Aaron Hicks
Kyle Higashioka
Jonathan Holder
Tommy Kahnle
Mike King
Jonathan Loaisiga
Adam Ottavino
Mike Tauchman
Luke Voit
Tyler Wade

With that, we turn it over to the MLBTR readership!  In the poll below, please select exactly four players that you think the Yankees should protect in our upcoming mock expansion draft.  Click here to view the results.

Create your own user feedback survey

Latest On MLB-MLBPA Negotiations On 2020 Season

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Major League Baseball and the players’ union met yesterday to engage on a possible restart to the pandemic-paused 2020 season. While the talk in the run-up to the sit-down surrounded economic disputes, the sides seem to have started the conversation in less contentious realms.

Yesterday’s chatter involved matters that might seem mundane, but which matter quite a bit to the hot stove. Roster and transaction rules were on the table, as was with the plan for a second Spring Training, per ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers.

Also under discussion was the complicated matter of health and safety, though it sounds as if there’s much more to come on that score. The league is preparing a lengthy presentation on all sorts of measures and protocols for dealing with the coronavirus pandemic, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link).

It sounds as if the approach is to lay some groundwork before moving on to the owners’ desire to further pare back payroll. Yesterday’s meeting did not include any discussion of player earnings, per Rogers.

Players have already agreed to a game-for-game reduction in salaries. With something like a half-season on the table, they stand to sacrifice about half of their anticipated annual earnings even without taking further cuts. But MLB is reportedly angling to limit salaries to 50% of certain league revenues — it’s not clear what would be included — in order to boost team balance sheets.

If that’s the final and most difficult question to be answered, it’s not the most important. Finding a path to play that’s responsible to participants as well as the general public remains the primary challenge. The league has obviously done a lot of groundwork; Rosenthal adds that several agents have arranged briefings for players from disease experts.

Remembering The No. 1 Picks: 2000-09

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We previously assessed the No. 1 overall draft picks of the 1990s. Let’s now take a look at how the top selections from the next decade turned out…

2000 – Adrian Gonzalez, Marlins:

  • If you go by career accomplishments, this was an excellent pick. Gonzalez lasted in the majors from 2004-18, batted .287/.358/.485 with 317 home runs and 36.4 fWAR, and was a five-time All-Star. The problem for the Marlins is that the first baseman never donned their uniform. They traded Gonzalez to the Rangers in a deal for reliever Ugueth Urbina in 2003. The deal didn’t aid the Marlins over the long haul, but at least Urbina was part of their most recent World Series winner and playoff team that year.

2001 – Joe Mauer, Twins:

  • Well played, Twins. The former catcher/first baseman, a Saint Paul native, is now a legendary Twin and possible Hall of Famer who played solely with the club from 2004-18 and slashed .306/.388/.439 with 143 homers and 52.5 fWAR. Mauer made six All-Star trips, won three batting titles and earned an AL MVP along the way. The eight-year, $184MM extension he signed with the Twins in 2010 remains the largest contract in franchise history.

2002 – Bryan Bullington, Pirates:

  • While the Gonzalez and Mauer picks panned out, this one couldn’t have gone much worse. The right-handed Bullington combined for just 18 1/3 innings of 5.89 ERA ball with the Pirates in 2005 and ’07. He later spent time with the Indians, Royals and Blue Jays, and after failing to make his mark with those teams, Bullington established himself as an effective starter in Japan from 2011-15. He hasn’t pitched professionally since then. Painful reminder for the Pirates: Zack Greinke went five picks after Bullington.

2003 – Delmon Young, Rays:

  • The effects of this pick continue to be felt today. While Young didn’t last long as a member of the Rays, with whom he played from 2006-07, they’re still benefiting from this selection. Tampa Bay traded Young to the Twins in a deal that netted them Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett, who were quite successful as Rays. They later sent Garza to the Cubs in 2011 for a package that included Chris Archer, whom they dealt to the Pirates seven years after that for now-cornerstones Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow. Young, meanwhile, was a below-average big leaguer. He played for a few teams through 2015 and accounted for minus-1.3 fWAR.

2004 – Matt Bush, Padres:

  • A disaster for the Padres, as they passed on No. 2 pick Justin Verlander and never got a single contribution from Bush, who has run into serious legal troubles during his career. The Padres designated the then-shortstop for assignment five years after choosing him. However, Bush did get on track and reinvent himself as a reliever with the Rangers from 2016-18. He’s still a member of the Texas organization, but he missed last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

2005 – Justin Upton, Diamondbacks:

  • Upton, Alex Gordon, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Ricky Romero, Troy Tulowitzki, Andrew McCutchen and Jay Bruce were among the top 12 picks in that year’s draft. All eight of those players went on to make at least one All-Star team (four in Upton’s case). Formerly a shortstop, Upton became a productive outfielder in Arizona from 2007-12, but the team dealt him to the Braves in a January 2013 blockbuster. Upton’s now a member of the Angels after also spending time with the Padres and Tigers. The 32-year-old’s a lifetime .266/.347/.476 hitter with 298 homers, 147 steals and 36.8 fWAR. You can’t argue with those results.

2006 – Luke Hochevar, Royals:

  • Evan Longoria (No. 3), Andrew Miller (No. 6), Clayton Kershaw (No. 7), Tim Lincecum (No. 10) and Max Scherzer (No. 11) were some of the other highest picks in that draft. Hochevar paled in comparison to each of them, but after several rough seasons as a starter, the righty did become a solid reliever toward the end of his career. He was even part of the Royals’ amazing World Series-winning bullpen in 2015, ending up as the victorious pitcher in the Fall Classic-deciding Game 5 against the Mets.  Hochevar pitched for just one more season after that, though, and thoracic outlet syndrome surgery helped lead to his retirement in 2018.

2007 – David Price, Rays:

  • The Rays definitely got this one right. Price was tremendous in their uniform from 2008-14, a span in which he made four All-Star teams and won an AL Cy Young Award. The club later traded him to the Tigers in a deal that’s still helping out the Rays to some degree. Price, now a Dodger, went on to pitch for Toronto and Boston after his short-lived Tigers tenure. He won a World Series as a member of the Red Sox in 2018, the third season of a seven-year, $217MM contract. Back when Price signed that deal, it was a record pact for a pitcher.

2008 – Tim Beckham, Rays:

  • You can’t win ’em all. Two picks before the Royals grabbed Eric Hosmer and four prior to the Giants’ selection of Buster Posey, the Rays made the mistake of going with Beckham, who hasn’t made much of an impact in the majors. The Rays ultimately cut ties with Beckham when they traded him to the Orioles for minor league pitcher Tobias Myers in 2017. Beckham spent last year with the Mariners, but he’s now a free agent after earning an 80-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs late in 2019. He’s a career .249/.302/.431 hitter who has totaled an unimpressive 4.3 fWAR thus far.

2009 – Stephen Strasburg, Nationals [RELATED: The Nats’ Amazing Run Of First-Rounders]:

  • Clearly one of the biggest success stories on this list, Strasburg debuted with great fanfare in 2010, striking out 14 Pirates in his initial start. There have been some injury troubles since then, but Strasburg, 31, has consistently performed like a front-end starter when healthy. And Strasburg was so good during the Nationals’ first-ever run to a championship last fall that he earned World Series MVP honors. The Nats then awarded him with a franchise-record seven-year, $245MM contract to prevent him from exiting via free agency. Regardless of how Strasburg performs from here, he’ll be considered one of the most important players in team history.

__

This is a hit-and-miss group. Five players became major league standouts, while the other half disappointed. Who’s the best of the bunch? It’s hard to go against Strasburg in the wake of his playoff heroics, but Gonzalez and Mauer had outstanding careers, and Upton and Price have been far above average as well.

Latest News & Notes On Coronavirus, MLB

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If there is a 2020 Major League Baseball season and at least some of it doesn’t occur in teams’ home ballparks, the state of Arizona has come up as a potential host. It’s anyone’s guess whether that will happen, but Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey announced Tuesday that pro sports teams will be able to resume without spectators in the state beginning on May 16, Andrew Oxford of the Arizona Republic writes. That in itself is not necessarily an indicator that baseball’s nearing a return, though. As Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. the league’s not going to play this year if it’s not convinced it will be be in position to provide sufficient coronavirus testing to its players. Fortunately, MLB does expect that it will be able to fulfill that requirement.

  • MLB and the MLBPA met Tuesday to discuss a potential season, but they mostly talked about health and safety, according to Heyman. He and Joel Sherman of the New York Post note that there wasn’t a former proposal regarding 50-50 revenue sharing or pay cuts, adding that those talks will occur later. However, owners are not keen on paying players prorated salaries without fans in the stands, per Heyman. They instead believe they’d lose less money with no baseball at all, which could be a major stumbling block in negotiations. “I think we will play,” an agent told Travis Sawchik of FiveThirtyEight, “but there is going to be an economic war.” That’s not a reassuring statement, especially with the league and the union set to engage in serious collective bargaining agreement discussions in the near future.
  • Beginning June 1, any Mariners employee who makes $60K or more will have to take a 20 percent pay cut through the end of October, Corey Brock of The Athletic reports. That will have a negative effect on about 60 employees, but the Mariners are taking that measure as a way to avoid any layoffs or furloughs during that five-month period. General manaager Jerry Dipoto will be among those on the bad end of it, as Brock writes that his pay will decrease by even more than 20 percent, but he’s behind the organization’s plan. “We wanted to make sure we did the right thing and kept people afloat during a difficult time,” Dipoto told Brock.
  • You can probably forget about baseball taking place in Los Angeles County in the near future. Its stay-at-home orders “with all certainty” will last for at least three more months, county Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer announced Tuesday, per Colleen Shalby and Sarah Parvini of the Los Angeles Times.
  • Three notable members of the Rangers have preexisting conditions, making them more susceptible to contracting the virus, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes. Starter Kyle Gibson was diagnosed with ulcerative colitis a year ago, reliever Brett Martin’s a diabetic, and third base coach Tony Beasley is a cancer survivor. All three told Grant that they’re eager to get back in action, though there would have to be safety protocols in place first.

NL East Notes: Mets, Realmuto, Cano, Marlins, Brinson, Sierra

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Let’s check in on a pair of teams from the National League East…

  • The Mets pushed hard to land J.T. Realmuto before he was ultimately traded from Miami to Philadelphia, and Mike Puma of the New York Post writes in his latest mailbag column that the team’s pursuit of Realmuto might not yet be over. Realmuto is represented by CAA, the former agency of GM Brodie Van Wagenen, and current catcher Wilson Ramos has a club option for the 2021 season that isn’t a lock to be picked up ($10MM or a $1.5MM buyout). The Mets have acquired several of Van Wagenen’s former players since he became GM — Jed Lowrie, Michael Wacha and Robinson Cano — although CAA has a rather large base of clients and Van Wagenen has certainly added plenty of players from other firms (Ramos, J.D. Davis, etc.). Still, there’s no obvious in-house alternative if the team opts to move on from Ramos — or to pick up his option and look to trade him. Realmuto would indeed be an upgrade, particularly on the defensive side of things, which is notable given the questions that arose regarding Ramos’ glove in New York last year.
  • The COVID-19 shutdown hasn’t been fun for anyone, but Cano has at least found a silver lining during the delayed season. Cano said Tuesday that the downtime has “been beneficial for me for sure” physically, as Tim Healey of Newsday relays. “My legs feel strong right now,” continued Cano, who’s champing at the bit to return to the diamond. “Just can’t wait to go back on the field, and then play.” If there is a season, the longtime star, 37, will aim to rebound after a rough debut campaign with the Mets. Cano hit just .257/.307/.428 with 13 homers during an injury-limited, 423-plate appearance season.
  • Expanded rosters should be quite favorable for several Marlins outfielders who might not have been a lock to make the team, writes Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. Lewis Brinson has drawn his share of flak having yet to produce after arriving as the centerpiece in the widely panned Christian Yelich trade, and he’d be “very, very” likely to break camp with an expanded roster. Magneuris Sierra is out of minor league options and was a risk to be exposed to waivers given his lack of big league production, but greater roster flexibility and his elite speed make him a likely bench piece at the very least. Sierra, like Brinson, came over in a high-profile swap — the Marcell Ozuna deal — although the Fish have already fared quite a bit better in that deal. Sandy Alcantara was that trade’s headliner, while righty Zac Gallen was also in that deal and has since netted the team top shortstop prospect Jazz Chisholm.

The Padres’ Under-The-Radar Star

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There may not be many who realize it, but the Padres’ Tommy Pham has been one of the most productive outfielders in baseball over the past few years. Compared to most other major league standouts, Pham came from humble draft beginnings as a 16th-round pick in 2006, and it took him several years to put up notable production in the minors. From his draft year through 2009, Pham’s OPS sat below .700, but his numbers trended upward thereafter, and he finally earned his first MLB look in 2014 with the Cardinals, who drafted him.

While Pham only played in six games and totaled a mere two plate appearances the year St. Louis promoted him, he represented a solid bench piece with the club from 2015-16, during which he slashed .247/.335/.458 (115 wRC+) in 356 PA. Any team would sign up for that type of offensive production from a reserve player, but Pham has demonstrated since then that he’s a bona fide starter – not a backup.

Pham’s breakout began in 2017, a season in which he batted .306/.411/.520 with 23 home runs and 25 stolen bases in 530 PA. Although Pham ended the year eighth in the majors in wRC+ (149) and 10th in fWAR (6.2), it proved to be his only full season as a starter in St. Louis.

Pham got off to an underwhelming start in 2018, when he owned a .730 OPS through July, and the Cardinals sent him and $500K in international bonus money to the Rays at the deadline in exchange for outfielder  Justin Williams, left-hander Genesis Cabrera and right-hander Roel Ramirez. The Cardinals haven’t really profited from that swap at the MLB level, at least not yet, but it went swimmingly for the Rays. Pham was terrific in Tampa Bay from 2018-19, when he totaled 828 PA and led all their position players in fWAR (5.9), hitting .287/.385/.485 (136 wRC+) with 28 homers and 30 steals.

You’d think the Rays would have regarded Pham as a keeper after his first season-plus in their uniform, but considering he’s 32, on a $7.9MM salary this season and only controllable for one more year after that, the budget-conscious franchise flipped him over the winter. The Rays wound up sending Pham to the Padres in a December 2019 deal centering on him and the powerful Hunter Renfroe, a fellow outfielder. Pham is flat-out better than Renfroe, but the latter’s 28, on a $3.3MM salary this year and under wraps through 2023, so you can see his appeal from the Rays’ standpoint.

So what did the Padres get in Pham? A batter who has been far superior to most offensive players since he busted out in 2017. Going back to then, here’s where Pham ranks in a few important categories…

Not only can Pham hit, but he’s a respectable outfielder – someone who has lined up at all three spots in the grass during his career and accounted for nine Defensive Runs and a 6.5 Ultimate Zone Rating in almost 4,000 innings. By all indications, the Padres have a gem on their hands in Pham. The question now is how much they’ll benefit from his presence in 2020, when the coronavirus will lead to a shortened campaign or perhaps no season at all.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Alex Gordon Hopes To Play “A Few More Years”

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Royals icon Alex Gordon was at least pondering retirement within the past year, but the 36-year-old now tells Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star that he’d like to play “at least a few more years.” Like many other veterans who’ve had additional time to reflect thanks to the COVID-19 shutdown, Gordon wants to go out on his own terms rather than letting the health crisis dictate when he hangs it up. “I’ll tell you I definitely don’t want to end like this,” says Gordon.

Gordon also notes that he sees similarities between the current Royals and the group that blossomed into Kansas City’s World Series clubs from 2014-15. The seven-time Gold Glover spoke fondly of how “special” it is to be a part of a group that grows together through a rebuild and comes out the other side as a postseason contender. Gordon “definitely” wants to see at least one more postseason run in his career, he adds.

There’s no talk of playing anywhere else in Gordon’s interview with Worthy, which K.C. fans in particular will want to read in full. Gordon said almost one year ago to the day that he plans to finish his career in Kansas City and retire as a Royal. “I’ve established my family here with my kids,” he said at the time. “This is home.”

If Gordon’s postseason aspirations are to come true, he’ll likely need another couple of years at least. The Royals have an increasing number of intriguing bats in the lineup, with Adalberto Mondesi, Hunter Dozier, Whit Merrifield and Jorge Soler all blossoming in recent years. (Soler will be a free agent after 2021, though the club hopes to extend the slugger.) The pitching side of things is a bit further behind, but the Royals have several quality young arms bubbling up toward MLB readiness. Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar and Kris Bubic all could’ve conceivably debuted in the big leagues this year, although that timeline is a bit less certain given the circumstances. All four appeared on various top-100 prospect lists prior to the 2020 season.

Gordon himself remains a reasonably productive player, having batted .266/.345/.396 with 13 home runs, 31 doubles and a triple in 2020 to go along with above-average glovework. Defensive metrics weren’t as bullish on him in 2019 as they were in an excellent defensive 2018 campaign, but Gordon has never rated below average in either Defensive Runs Saved or Ultimate Zone Rating since moving from third base to left field a decade ago. And while those offensive numbers are just shy of league average, Gordon was mostly solid in ’19 outside of a disastrous month of August (.167/.238/.219). Setting aside that brutal month, he kept his OPS above the .800 mark. We of course can’t simply ignore that woeful August showing, but it’s only fair to point out that he was a largely solid at the plate otherwise.

Gordon is on a one-year, $4MM deal with the Royals, so this winter, he’ll need to once again negotiate a new contract with the only club he’s ever known. But general manager Dayton Moore has made perfectly clear how important Gordon is to the team and clubhouse, and his teammates have offered similar sentiments. Merrifield, for instance, gushed to Worthy about how vital Gordon has been in his own career and what his leadership means to the Kansas City roster.

Examining The Red Sox’ Potential Trade Chips

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As we noted earlier today, the potential 2020 season will bring a host of new rules governing player transactions. We haven’t heard anything yet regarding how that’ll take place. But supposing there’s an opportunity at some point to strike trades, it’s quite likely that non-contending teams will be as anxious as ever to make deals.

But wait … are the Red Sox a contending team? Obviously they aren’t going all out, having just traded one of the game’s very best players in Mookie Betts along with high-priced veteran David Price. The team may maintain that wasn’t driven exclusively by luxury tax considerations, but there’s no way to sell it as enhancing the team’s 2020 outlook. And the club did manage to dip just under the luxury line — making it all the more important that the season end up being played, so that the anticipated competitive balance tax rate reset isn’t wiped out.

At the time, we might’ve wondered whether a first half boom could’ve led the Red Sox to turn into a mid-season 2020 buyer. It would’ve been hard to sell away from a winning club, at least. But then came the whole global pandemic thing, which halted any thoughts of a typical season and trade deadline. And in the midst of that the club lost its most talented pitcher when Chris Sale went under the knife for Tommy John surgery.

The Boston organization still projects as an above-average team. And the odds of a surprise would increase in a short-season format with an expanded postseason. But you have to recognize that the American League is extremely top-heavy. On paper, the Sox are no match at all for the best clubs.

Meanwhile, new Red Sox baseball ops leader Chaim Bloom has already pulled the band aid off when it comes to trading veterans. He’s looking to 2021 and beyond and the fan base knows it. None of them are deciding whether to show up for games this season anyway. Under the circumstances, the Boston organization should be pretty motivated to trade short-term veterans for whatever long-term value it can get. With every team facing renewed and unexpected future financial concerns, there could be some wild opportunities out there.

If and when Bloom returns to the trading floor, he won’t have a Betts to work with. It’s quite unlikely he’ll seriously entertain talks for long-term core player such as Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts. It’s not likely the team will be keen to discuss Andrew Benintendi and Christian Vazquez given that each has multiple seasons of affordable control remaining. Even younger players like Alex Verdugo and Michael Chavis surely aren’t going anywhere.

But Bloom sure has a lot of other guys that would be worth talking about …

  • Brandon Workman, RP: In retrospect, it’s surprising there wasn’t more talk of Workman in the offseason. He ran up over seventy frames of sub-2 ERA ball last year with big strikeout and groundball numbers. And he was approximately the only pitcher in baseball that seemed immune to the long ball, though walks remain a concern. With only a $3.5MM salary, Workman is a really nice target for the many teams that will be looking to compete as hoped without adding financial obligations.
  • Jackie Bradley Jr., OF: The salary considerations go in the opposite direction here, as Bradley’s $11MM walk-year payout isn’t very friendly to the pocketbooks. He’s not likely to be a sought-after player unless he really makes a rebound at the plate. But he has shown that ability before and is a quality up-the-middle defender.
  • Kevin Pillar, OF & Mitch Moreland, 1B: These veterans are both going to have to show what they’ve got on the field before any other teams take a look. But each could be a mid-season rental target.
  • Eduardo Rodriguez, SP: Perhaps the most valuable potential Red Sox trade target that could realistically be shopped, the quality southpaw only just reached his 27th birthday after a productive and healthy 2019 season. He’s due a reasonable $8.3MM (on a full season basis) with one more arb year to go, so the Red Sox will probably intend to hang onto him for 2021 … though their plans could probably be changed with the right offer.
  • Matt Barnes, RP: He keeps producing monster strikeout numbers with good but not great results, due in part to some free pass proclivities. There’d be a ton of interest if the Red Sox make him available, but as with Rodriguez, there’s little reason for the team to sell short. Barnes is earning a full-season $3.1MM salary in 2020 with another pass through arbitration to come thereafter.
  • J.D. Martinez, OF/DH: Might there be added interest with a temporary National League DH? That’d be a risky strategy since the designated hitter could disappear in 2021, particularly given Martinez’s significant post-2020 obligations ($19.375MM apiece in 2021 and 2022). The slugger’s now less likely than ever to opt out of the remainder of his deal.
  • Nathan Eovaldi, Martin Perez & Collin McHugh, SPs: None of these hurlers would be moved at the moment, but perhaps that could change if mid-season trades are possible. The former is owed a lot of coin, but could conceivably be swapped in the right circumstances — if he returns to form. The latter two are buy-low free agent signees who’d be possible deadline flips in a normal year. Perez does come with a 2021 option.

The Nats’ Amazing Run Of First Round Draft Picks

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Let’s start with the obvious: it was easy for the Nationals to select Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper with the first overall picks of the 2009 and 2010 drafts, respectively. And the team was quite fortunate that its low point in the standings coincided with the appearance of two slam-dunk talents.

But that doesn’t mean it was easy for new GM Mike Rizzo to get those two Scott Boras clients under contract. Both went down to the wire. Strasburg finally agreed to terms after talk of $50MM demands. Harper, who was chosen the day before Strasburg’s memorable MLB debut, also waited until just before midnight on deadline day to get his deal done. Both commanded record-setting numbers.

The trick there was less one of talent evaluation than of relationship management and negotiating prowess. Tamping down the costs, ensuring the players came into the organization, and avoiding any long-term tensions were the priorities. Mission accomplished.

But that’s not the extent of the Nats’ remarkable run of first-round success. Let’s consider the organization’s entire stretch of selections between 2009 and 2012. By that point, the team was enjoying enough success on the field that it punted its ensuing first-rounder through the qualifying offer system.

Every single one of those players reached the majors for at least three seasons, which is an accomplishment in and of itself. More importantly, those drafts have collectively produced four players that have turned in one or more superstar-level campaigns. While all the selections haven’t all shaken out quite as hoped, and the Nats have cashed some in via trade, the net is remarkable.

  • Strasburg: 3x All-Star, 3x top-10 Cy Young voting, 32.3 rWAR
  • Storen: 334 innings, 3.02 ERA, 95 saves, 5.2 rWAR
  • Harper: 6x All-Star, 2015 MVP, 27.5 rWAR
  • Rendon: 1x All-Star, 4x top-10 MVP voting, 29.1 rWAR
  • Meyer: considered a top prospect when he was traded for Denard Span; career derailed by injury
  • Goodwin: traded away after marginal contributions in D.C.; 2.2 rWAR in 2019 with Angels
  • Giolito: 2019 All-Star, 6th in Cy Young voting; traded (with Reynaldo Lopez and 2016 first-round pick Dane Dunning) for Adam Eaton

Obviously, the bulk of the benefit to the Nats comes from the major stars that spent all of their arbitration-eligible seasons in D.C. Though Rendon has followed Harper in bolting for other teams via free agency, the Nationals enjoyed many cost-efficient prime years.

Then there’s Giolito, the one that got away — sort of. It’s easy to fixate on the fact that Eaton hasn’t been as productive as hoped, due in no small part to injury. But he has been a useful player and was quite valuable at the time of the swap due to his consistent productivity and highly affordable contract. The return on the 16th overall draft selection used to nab Giolito was quite good, all things considered. That’s bolstered by the fact that Giolito has now finally emerged as a star with the White Sox.

What of the others? Well, if you could go back in time, you might just take a chance on a different player from that 2009 draft class rather than grabbing Storen. But the collegiate closer did deliver more or less what was asked of him, running quickly to the majors and providing years of good service at the back end of the Nats’ bullpen — albeit on quite the roller-coaster ride — before he was swapped out in a deal that didn’t turn out for either team.

The Meyer trade worked out swimmingly. He had developed into a quality, near-majors prospect at the time, allowing the Nats to turn him into what became three highly productive seasons from Span. The center fielder contributed 8.4 rWAR during his time in the nation’s capital. Meyer seemed poised to realize some of his potential before longstanding injury concerns finally got him for good and forced an early retirement.

Goodwin is by some measures the biggest disappointment, but it’s generally hard to expect too much from a sandwich-round selection. He provided some useful action to the Nats for a while but never locked down a real opportunity in D.C. But Goodwin was and remains at least a useful fourth outfielder type. Last year, he turned in 458 plate appearances of .262/.326/.470 hitting with the Angels. It’s still possible he’ll end up turning in more significant contributions in the years to come, though they won’t redound to the Nationals’ benefit.

What of the next several seasons after sitting out that 2013 draft? Well, Erick Fedde was tabbed by some as a Giolito-like mid-round steal who fell due to health concerns. He has reached the bigs and remains a factor but hasn’t yet fully established himself. Dunning, shipped out with Giolito, has big talent but is also dealing with health woes. That was still a strong pick, as was fellow 2016 first-rounder Carter Kieboom, who is viewed as one of the game’s best overall prospects. More recently, the Nats selected hurlers Seth Romero and Mason Denaburg, who feature among top ten org prospects.

It doesn’t seem remotely likely that the latest run of selections will have anything close to the impact of the 2009-12 crop. But Rizzo and co. were working with much loftier draft selections in those days. And they set an impossibly high standard, even accounting for the advantages of the early selections. Any way you cut it, the Nats secured value exceeding 100 wins above replacement — whether directly or as acquired by trade — in those four years of first-round drafts.

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