Mariners Select Robert Dugger
The Mariners announced Thursday that they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Robert Dugger to the 40-man roster and called him up from their taxi squad as the 27th man for their doubleheader against the Orioles.
Dugger, 25, will now have the chance to pitch for the club that originally drafted him in the 18th round back in 2016. That appeared unlikely not long ago, as Seattle traded him to the Marlins alongside righty Nick Neidert and infielder Christopher Torres in the trade that brought Dee Strange-Gordon to the Mariners.
Things didn’t pan out for Dugger in Miami. He posted strong numbers through Class-A and Double-A before struggling immensely at Triple-A in 2019 (albeit in the juiced-ball season of an already hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League). The Fish called Dugger to the big leagues for a look both in 2019 and 2020, but he was tattooed for a 7.40 ERA in a total of 45 innings. Miami tried to pass him through waivers to open a 40-man spot back in December, but the Mariners scooped him back up — only to later DFA him after signing Ken Giles. Seattle then succeeded in passing Dugger through waiver themselves.
While Dugger hasn’t had success above the Double-A level, last year’s small sample of work included a nearly two-mile-per-hour jump in fastball velocity (90.3 mph average to 92.1 mph) as well as some notable spin-rate increases on that four-seamer (2191 rpm in 2019; 2321 rpm in 2020) and on his slider (2311 rpm to 2443 rpm).
Dugger will be available out of the ‘pen behind Marco Gonzales in Game 1 and Justin Dunn in Game 2 today. He still has a minor league option remaining, so the Mariners can shuttle him between their alternate site/Triple-A and the Majors for the remainder of the season without exposing him to waivers if the change of scenery brings about some improvement in his overall results.
KBO’s Kiwoom Heroes Acquire Jake Brigham, Waive Josh A. Smith
The Korea Baseball Organization’s Kiwoom Heroes have made an early change in their rotation involving a pair of former big league pitchers. Per Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency, the Heroes announced that they’ve reacquired righty Jake Brigham and waived right-hander Josh A. Smith.
Brigham had been pitching with the Wei Chuan Dragons Taiwan’s Chinese Professional Baseball League. He’ll finish out the remainder of the month with the Dragons, per the report, then join the Heroes after a two-week quarantine period. It’s not clear what type of compensation the two clubs will exchange, but Brigham will be guaranteed $480K for the remainder of the season with another $50K available via incentives.
Now 33 years old, Brigham was a sixth-round pick by the Rangers back in 2006 and for a few years was considered to be among their top 30 prospects. He was traded to the Cubs in the deal that sent Geovany Soto to Texas back in 2012, and he bounced to several teams thereafter. Brigham appeared in a dozen games with the 2015 Braves but was hit hard, and that still stands as his only MLB experience to date.
Despite a lack of success in North American ball, Brigham has carved out quite a nice career pitching in Asia. A brief stint with Japan’s Rakuten Golden Eagles in 2016 didn’t bear much fruit, but he signed with the Heroes in 2017 and spent the next four seasons as a key piece of their rotation. From 2017-20, Brigham racked up 608 1/3 innings and pitched to a 3.70 ERA with a 19.7 percent strikeout rate and a tiny 6.3 percent walk rate.
Brigham was out to a very strong start in Taiwan this year, pitching to a 0.63 ERA with 15 strikeouts against three walks in 28 2/3 frames. That, it seems, was enough to convince the Heroes that he was past the elbow issues which plagued him during 2020 and prompted the team to move in another direction.
As for Smith, his time with the Heroes will prove quite limited. He made just two starts after signing a one-year deal that came with a $500K salary. Smith pitched just 10 innings and was tagged for seven runs on nine hits and five walks with nine strikeouts.
Smith, 33, has quite a bit more Major League experience than Brigham and was in the bigs as recently as last season, when he tossed 26 1/3 innings for the Marlins. He’s also spent time with the Reds, A’s and Red Sox, logging a collective 5.60 ERA (4.72 SIERA) with an 18 percent strikeout rate, a 9.7 percent walk rate and a 40.6 percent ground-ball rate through 184 2/3 innings at the MLB level.
2021-22 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings
Francisco Lindor is now under contract with the Mets through 2031, and they’ll be cutting him checks for ten years beyond that due to deferred money. Before accounting for Lindor’s $50MM in deferrals, his $341MM contract ranks third in MLB history behind Mookie Betts and Mike Trout. But the net present value of Lindor’s deal is $332.39MM, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, and it’s been previously reported that Betts’ $365MM extension actually had a present-day value of $306.66MM. Fernando Tatis Jr.s‘ 14-year, $340MM extension actually outranks Lindor and Betts in that sense, even though Lindor’s final million bucks was clearly tacked on so he and his agents at SportsMeter can at least nominally say he passed the Padres’ shortstop.
In our interpretation, Trout’s ten year, $360MM extension from March 2019 still reigns supreme among baseball contracts. Though Trout tore up his existing contract and technically put pen to paper on a 12-year, $426.5MM deal with the Angels, he had two years and $66.5MM remaining on his old deal at the time. The Angels committed $360MM in new money, which is the figure we think matters and allows for accurate comparison. Baseball’s first true $400MM man has yet to be anointed, and that’s unlikely to happen as part of the 2021-22 free agent class. MLB Trade Rumors maintains the definitive list of the largest MLB contracts here.
Though he had fallen short of our top ten back in March, Astros righty Lance McCullers Jr. is also off the board. McCullers signed a five-year, $85MM extension to remain with the Astros, a reminder that Boras Corporation clients don’t always explore free agency. McCullers had age on his side, as he doesn’t turn 28 until October. The Astros were willing to grant McCullers a fifth year despite the fact that he has never pitched as many as 140 Major League innings in a single season, postseason included. That’s partially due to his November 2018 Tommy John surgery, from which McCullers is fully recovered, as well as the shortened 60-game MLB season in 2020.
As a catcher slated to hit free agency in his age 32 season, the Royals’ Salvador Perez also failed to crack my top ten last month. Perez did better than I thought, with his agents at Beverly Hills Sports Council securing a four-year, $82MM extension. Perez will be nearly four years younger than Yadier Molina was upon starting his three-year extension, so it makes sense that Perez would command a longer term. Perez was also able to inch past Molina’s $20MM average annual value, becoming the third catcher to reach that mark along with standard-bearer J.T. Realmuto.
The 2021-22 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings below represent my estimation of the players’ earning power, with the uncertainty of the expiring collective bargaining agreement set aside. You can see the full list of 2021-22 MLB free agents here.
1. Corey Seager. Even with Lindor locked up, the 2021-22 free agent shortstop class still includes seven starting-caliber players in Seager, Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, Javier Baez, Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons, and Jose Iglesias. Everything we said about Seager last time remains true: it’s exceedingly rare to find a shortstop who can hit this well. It may be foolish to try to read tea leaves based on 49 plate appearances this year, but Seager’s walk rate is higher than ever so far and perhaps this will be the first time he reaches 70 free passes in a season. Will the Dodgers allow their star shortstop to reach free agency? Jon Heyman provided an update on March 30th, noting that the Dodgers “made an effort on Seager,” which obviously did not come to fruition. As he approaches his 27th birthday this month, Seager has a clear benchmark to aim for in Lindor’s $341MM.
2. Trevor Bauer. The most notable recent development involving Bauer was MLB’s collection of multiple baseballs he threw during his April 7th start at Oakland. According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, “The balls had visible markings and were sticky, and were sent to the league offices for further inspection, the sources said.” Rosenthal the baseballs were “brought to the umpires’ attention.” This occurred only weeks after after MLB sent a memo to teams “alerting them of plans to crack down on pitchers’ use of foreign substances to manipulate pitch movement,” as Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post put it. Per Janes’ article, the memo said collected baseballs would be tested at a third-party lab and players will be subject to discipline.
Bauer, who has been outspoken about pitchers’ widespread use of foreign substances on baseballs, had choice words in the wake of Rosenthal’s article. It’s unclear whether Bauer was even being targeted in this instance, and it seems unlikely MLB could make a suspension stick (pun intended).
Most likely, this story is much ado about nothing, and will have no effect on Bauer’s earning power should he decide to opt out after 2021. Given the structure of his contract, most feel that Bauer is more likely to opt out after 2022. That’s why we didn’t include him in the snazzy image used in this post.
3. Carlos Correa. The Astros attempted to extend Correa by his self-imposed Opening Day deadline, offering six years and $120MM or five years and $125MM. The six-year offer is an exact match for Xander Bogaerts‘ contract with the Red Sox, which Bogaerts signed coming off a 133 wRC+, 4.9 WAR season. That contract, covering ages 27-32, contains an opt-out after the third year and a very achievable seventh-year vesting option. The extension still felt a bit light at the time for Bogaerts. It still seems like a reasonable comparable for Correa at present, who hasn’t topped 110 games in the regular season since 2016 (though he was healthy in 2020).
If Correa is able to hit to his abilities (a 130 wRC+ or better) while playing 140+ games, he’ll prove himself right and probably at least double the Astros’ offer as a free agent. Such a contract will probably come from another team, as Correa said of the Astros, “We didn’t get close at all. There were not really any negotiations.” He added, “Once I hit free agency, I’m going to look for a big, long contract. They made it very clear that they did not believe in that.” Lindor’s contract is an obvious benchmark, with Correa noting in February, “I’m the one, I feel like with Lindor, that can do both — offensively and defensively — at a high level. I always have the option of going to third base if it’s needed (for a team).”
Lindor’s ten-year, $341MM contract, which has a present-day value of about $332MM, pays him through age 37. Manny Machado was paid through age 35 on a ten-year deal worth $300MM. Correa may have a ten-year deal in that price range in his sights, or he could tack on additional years to squeeze out a few extra dollars as Bryce Harper did.
4. Trevor Story. Is it too early to start the Trevor Story Trade Watch? The Rockies have virtually no chance of making the playoffs. Assuming the qualifying offer system and its exemption for traded players remains in place, Story would get a little boost over rival shortstops Seager and Correa, who do not figure to be traded this summer. Plus, Story would have two months to start building a case that he’s a 120 wRC+ hitter outside of Coors Field.
5. Freddie Freeman. Asked about progress on a contract extension with the Braves, Freeman told MLB.com’s Mark Bowman on March 24th, “We haven’t been approached yet.” A week later on Opening Day, Freeman said, “There is nothing to report on.” For as much of a foregone conclusion Freeman staying with the Braves seems to be, the club appears willing to let the reigning NL MVP reach the open market or at least get weeks away from it. I could see a sixth year becoming a sticking point. Paul Goldschmidt signed a five-year extension with the Cardinals in March 2019, but he was new to the team, wasn’t on the open market, and didn’t have an MVP on his résumé. The Braves haven’t gone past four years in free agency since signing B.J. Upton in November 2012.
6. Kris Bryant. Bryant has been overshadowed by the shortstops of the 2021-22 free agent class, even though the Cubs and baseball fans have been talking about his free agency since his delayed call-up in 2015. Less than 7% of the Cubs’ season is in the books, but in 44 plate appearances in 2021 Bryant has begun to erase the ugly 147 PA from 2020. In a full-length season, Bryant has never posted a wRC+ below 126. If this is a four or five-win season in the making, Bryant could vault up this list in a hurry. With the Cubs currently sporting a 12.4% chance at making the playoffs, he’s a prime July trade candidate.
7. Michael Conforto. With a 132 wRC+ from 2017-20, Conforto’s track record speaks for itself. That’s why his first seven games of 2021 should be of little concern and shouldn’t affect his free agent value. Though SNY’s Andy Martino reported on March 19th that the Mets made an offer to Conforto, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo wrote, “Shortly before Lindor signed his deal last week [March 31st], a source said the Mets had yet to exchange numbers with Conforto’s agent.”
The day of Lindor’s agreement, Mike Puma of the New York Post wrote, “With the Mets focused on Lindor, extension talks with Michael Conforto fizzled, with the two sides in different realms regarding contract value, according to a source. Though Conforto in spring training backed away from the idea of Opening Day as a hard deadline to negotiate, the likelihood of him testing free agency is strong.” With a typical year, Conforto will be the top free agent outfielder on the market.
8. Clayton Kershaw. There’s nothing new to report on Kershaw, who recently turned 33 years old. Speculation, including from Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, seems to be in the three-year, $90MM range for Kershaw. The Dodgers remain the favorite, with the Rangers lurking as the hometown pick.
9. Noah Syndergaard. If McCullers is worth five years and $85MM, Syndergaard deserves a spot on this list. The Mets’ flamethrowing righty, who turns 29 in August, is currently on the mend from March 2020 Tommy John surgery. Syndergaard was said to have hit 96 miles per hour in a mid-March bullpen session and remains on track for a mid-June big league return. That could give Syndergaard more than 20 starts to prove his health prior to free agency.
10. Dylan Bundy. The Angels’ Opening Day starter continues to see his stock rise after three strong starts to open the season. His velocity is up a full two miles per hour from 2020. In his 14 starts with the Angels dating back to last year, Bundy has a stellar 27.3 K% and 6.4 BB%. Bundy won’t turn 29 until November, meaning he’s more than a year and a half younger than fellow free agents Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman. Drafted fourth overall by the Orioles out of high school in 2011, Bundy seems to be realizing his promise at the opportune time.
I missed this last time, but new Cardinal Nolan Arenado said in February that there is a “very, very high chance” that he will not be opting out of the remaining five years and $164MM on his deal, suggesting that staying put is “part of how we made the contract,” where the Redbirds added one year and $15MM to his deal. So, there’s little reason to include him in these rankings. Meanwhile, the Mariners’ James Paxton had his hopes for a comeback season dashed, as the need for Tommy John surgery arose 21 pitches into his season.
Aside from the aforementioned Gausman and Stroman, Max Scherzer, Lance Lynn, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, and Eduardo Rodriguez remain on the outskirts of the top ten.
Quick Hits: Rodon, Bellinger, Graterol, Mazara, Stripling
Carlos Rodon was perfect through 8 1/3 innings tonight against the Indians. A backfoot slider skipped off the top of Roberto Perez‘s right foot, ending his bid for a perfect game. Rodon managed to complete the no hitter, however, with a masterful 114-pitch complete game shutout. Coming into this season, the former third overall pick was in a battle for the fifth starter job in the White Sox rotation. But tonight, the burly southpaw routinely hit 97 mph on the radar gun (hitting as high as 99 mph in the ninth inning). Certainly, Rodon wasn’t all that high up on the list of pitchers likeliest to throw what would have been the first perfect game in the Majors since 2012: He hasn’t posted an ERA under five since 2018, and he was designated for assignment this winter. Yet, tonight’s start marked the culmination of an arduous journey through numerous injuries and multiple arm surgeries. Congrats to Rodon on throwing the 20th no-hitter in White Sox franchise history. Now, let’s check in on some players still making their way back from injury…
- Cody Bellinger and Brusdar Graterol will both join the Dodgers on their forthcoming road trip, but neither is a guarantee to be activated. Belligner is still experiencing some swelling in his calf, and he’s yet to run the bases as full speed, per Juan Toribio of MLB.com (via Twitter). Bellinger has been out since April 5th. As for Graterol, he’ll be added to the taxi squad, per Jorge Castillo of the LA Times (via Twitter). It’s not entirely clear why Graterol wasn’t ready to start the season, but it’s only a matter of time until he becomes available out of the bullpen for manager Dave Roberts.
- Nomar Mazara left Wednesday night’s game with a left abdominal strain, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. There’s no timetable for his return. In the meantime, JaCoby Jones and Victor Reyes should have more opportunities in the starting lineup. Both outfielders have seen their playing time cut both by the offseason acquisition of Robbie Grossman and the early-season breakout from Akil Baddoo. Both Reyes (30 wRC+) and Jones (-10 wRC+) are off to slow starts through their first week of games.
- Ross Stripling is dealing with forearm tightness, but the Blue Jays don’t have any information beyond that, per Scott Mitchell of TSN Sports (via Twitter). The former Dodger has been tagged for seven earned runs on 13 hits and three walks over 8 1/3 innings so far.
Latest On Giants’ Rotation
Alex Wood will be activated from the injured list to make his Giants’ debut, starting Sunday’s game against the Marlins, per Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports. Wood’s contract has a unique incentive structure that will pay out an additional $150K after 12 games of recording 10 or more outs. He receives more bonus cash after 14, 16, 18, 22, and 24 such games. Starting games certainly gives Wood the best chance to hit those markers, though health will be the biggest factor for the veteran southpaw.
Because of injures, Wood hasn’t been a regular rotation arm since back-to-back 150-inning seasons with the Dodgers in 2017 and 2018. Per Spotrac, Wood has seven career trips to the injured list, twice spending more than 100 days on the shelf. Arthroscopic debridement surgery on his left elbow limited him to 60 1/3 innings during the 2016 season. A back injury tanked his lone season with the Reds. He made just 7 starts covering 35 2/3 innings that year. Wood’s back has again given him problems this season.
With Wood joining the rotation, Logan Webb will head to the bullpen. Webb earned his rotation spot with a strong spring, but he’s off to a rough start. The 24-year-old has allowed 15 hits and five walks in just 10 1/3 innings in his two starts. While the move certainly may seem like a demotion, Pavlovic points out that Webb will be just the third right-hander in the Giants’ bullpen.
Of course, given today’s apparent injury to Johnny Cueto, the Giants may need to keep Webb in the rotation after all. Cueto left today’s game with a tight lat, per Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group (via Twitter). Cueto has been excellent on this young season, tossing 8 2/3 innings of one-run ball in his season debut against the Rockies. He got his second win on the season today against the Reds. The veteran logged 5 2/3 scoreless innings before being removed because of the injury.
Padres Activate Pierce Johnson, Dan Altavilla From Injured List
The Padres carousel of relievers continues to turn, this time via the activations of Pierce Johnson and Dan Altavilla from the injured list. Both right-handers came into the season as key, if underrated pieces of the Friars’ bullpen makeup. Both will make their season debuts when they next get in a game.
In terms of corresponding moves, Nabil Crismatt has been optioned for the second time this season. Taylor Williams has also been placed on the injured list with right knee inflammation, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune (via Twitter). Crismatt impressed this spring while on a minor league contract, earning himself a place in the organization. The Padres are likely to see Crismatt a number of times this season, though since his option has been used, he’ll also remain a candidate for demotion.
Conversely, Williams does not have any options remaining. The 29-year-old has been solid in five appearances so far this season, giving up just one run over 5 1/3 innings. Williams played for the Brewers and Mariners before coming to the Padres in an under-the-radar trade at last season’s August trade deadline.
Altavilla also came to San Diego from Seattle at the trade deadline last year, but as part of the higher-profile trade the sent Ty France, Andres Munoz, Luis Torrens, and Taylor Trammell to the Mariners for Altavilla, Austin Adams, and Austin Nola. All three pieces of that deal started the season on the injured list for the Pads, though Adams just recently made his return.
Johnson returned to the States from Japan last season, quickly becoming a vital piece of manager Jayce Tingler’s relief corps. The Colorado native appeared in 24 games, pitching to a 2.70 ERA/3.14 FIP over 20 innings. Johnson and Altavilla now join a deep group of veteran right-handers in the Padres’ bullpen. Beyond Johnson, Altavilla, and Adams, Tingler can also call on Craig Stammen, Keone Kela or Emilio Pagan ahead of nominal closer Mark Melancon.
NL Injury Notes: Braves, Myers, Betances, Cain
The Braves don’t have a timetable yet for injured right-handers Mike Soroka and Chris Martin to return, per David O’Brien of The Athletic. Soroka missed almost all of last season with a torn right Achilles, and as he was working his way back, the Braves had to shut him down because of shoulder inflammation. Martin went on the IL with the same issue on April 10 (retroactive to April 7). Between their injuries and Max Fried‘s placement on the IL because of a hamstring strain, the Braves are without three of their most important pitchers.
- Padres right fielder Wil Myers left their game Tuesday with right knee inflammation and was not in their starting lineup Wednesday. Myers has been dealing with patellar tenonitis, but it’s not believed he’ll miss much time or require surgery, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Even though Myers has had to play through discomfort, it hasn’t had an obvious effect on his production. On the heels of a massive rebound in 2020, he has begun this year with a torrid .341/.438/.659 line and three home runs in 48 plate appearances.
- Mets reliever Dellin Betances, on the 10-day IL since April 8 with a right shoulder impingement, is still a ways from returning. Betances hasn’t begun throwing, and he won’t travel with the Mets for their April 16-22 road trip, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports. Injuries have been a constant problem over the past few years for Betances, a four-time All-Star who has thrown only 13 1/3 innings dating back to his final season with the Yankees in 2019. The Mets had high hopes for a Betances bounce-back effort when they signed him to a $10.5MM guarantee during the ensuing winter, but he yielded 10 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings in 2020. So far this year, Betances has made one appearance and thrown one inning, in which he allowed an earned run and a walk.
- The Brewers have placed center fielder Lorenzo Cain on the 10-day IL with a strained left quad and recalled outfielder Tyrone Taylor, the team announced. There’s no word on how much time Cain will miss, but he strained his other quad during the spring and was limited to seven exhibition games as a result. The 35-year-old has gotten off to a slow start this season with a .154/.214/.423 line in 28 plate appearances.
COVID Notes: 4/14/21
The latest coronavirus-related updates from the game…
- White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease is headed to the injured list, general manager Rick Hahn told Scott Merkin of MLB.com and other reporters. Cease did not test positive for COVID-19, but he is dealing with some symptoms of the virus. The 25-year-old has has made two starts this season and given up four earned runs and nine hits while totaling nine strikeouts against six walks. The White Sox recalled Zack Burdi from their alternate site to take Cease’s roster spot.
Blue Jays Place Julian Merryweather On IL, Select Anthony Castro
The Blue Jays placed right-hander Julian Merryweather on the 10-day injured list before their game Wednesday, the team announced. The Jays selected righty Anthony Castro‘s contract in a corresponding move.
Merryweather is dealing with a left oblique strain – the type of injury that can lead to an extended absence. That would be a tough blow to Toronto’s bullpen, which has received excellent work from Merryweather early this season. Boasting a 98 mile per hour fastball, Merryweather has thrown 4 1/3 shutout, one-hit innings, struck out an eye-popping 50 percent of hitters and walked just 7.1 percent of batters. The 29-year-old also leads the Blue Jays with two saves. The closer role could now to either Jordan Romano, Rafael Dolis or both during Merryweather’s IL stint.
Castro, 26, was an offseason waiver claim from the Tigers, whom he had been with since he first became a professional in 2012. While Castro only made one major league appearance (last year) as a Tiger, he helped the Blue Jays defeat the Yankees on Wednesday with two scoreless frames in relief.
Astros Place 5 On Injured List
The Astros’ offense is taking a sizable hit, as the team announced Wednesday that designated hitter Yordan Alvarez, third baseman Alex Bregman, second baseman Jose Altuve, catcher Martin Maldonado and infielder Robel Garcia are all going to the injured list. The team made the moves due to health and safety protocols, according to Astros general manager James Click, who doesn’t expect their game against the Tigers on Wednesday to be postponed, Mark Berman of Fox 26 tweets.
Houston’s losing four regulars in Alvarez, Bregman, Altuve and Maldonado. The first three have been vital members of the Astros’ offense for multiple seasons, and all three have gotten off to strong starts this year. Maldonado isn’t nearly as effective at the plate, though the Astros like his defense enough that they had been finalizing a one-year extension with him as of Tuesday.
With such a large chunk of their position player group down, the Astros are bringing up infielders Abraham Toro, Alex De Goti and Taylor Jones, catcher Garrett Stubbs, and outfielder Ronnie Dawson. De Goti and Dawson weren’t on the Astros’ 40-man roster, so their contracts had to be selected.