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Archives for January 2022

Trade Candidate: Tyler Glasnow

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The Rays find themselves in a tricky position with regards to Tyler Glasnow. The 6’8″ right-hander is probably the team’s most talented pitcher. Last season, he looked on the way towards solidifying himself among the best in the sport. Through his first 14 starts and 88 innings, Glasnow posted a 2.66 ERA with a fantastic 36.2% strikeout rate and a solid 7.9% walk percentage.

Glasnow has always had the raw stuff to miss bats in droves, but as he entered his mid-20s, he’d seemingly found the control to match. He has the ability to be a top-of-the-rotation starter. Unfortunately, his health hasn’t yet allowed him reach that upside. Glasnow missed a good chunk of the 2019 season due to a forearm strain. He stayed healthy during the abbreviated 2020 campaign, but he didn’t make it through 2021 unscathed.

Last June, Glasnow suffered a partial tear of the UCL in his throwing arm. After unsuccessfully attempting to rehab the injury, the California native underwent Tommy John surgery two months later. That obviously brought his 2021 season to a close, and it’ll likely cost him all of 2022 as well. The timing of that procedure leaves the Tampa Bay front office with a decision to make regarding his long-term future in the organization.

Glasnow is arbitration eligible for the third of four times this offseason. He’s on track to hit free agency after the 2023 season. With next season likely a wash, Glasnow’s club is looking at one year (2023) of production before he can test the open market. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $5.8MM salary this year, and he’d likely earn the same amount the following season.

So that’s around $12MM over two years for one season of Glasnow’s services. Given the caliber of pitcher he is, that could be a bargain if he returns to form in 2023. Yet as Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of the Athletic wrote last summer, it’s not clear how heavy a workload a team could reasonably anticipate Glasnow to work that year even if his recovery goes as planned. While he shouldn’t have much issue being ready for the start of 2023 — barring unexpected setbacks in his rehab process — he might not be equipped to shoulder a 180-inning workload. Between injuries and the pandemic, Glasnow will have tossed just 241 2/3 MLB innings between 2019-22, including the postseason (assuming he misses all of next year).

As is typically the case with the Rays, there’s also their team spending limitations to consider. Tampa Bay entered last season with a player payroll a bit south of $67MM, in the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Including arbitration projections, Jason Martinez of Roster Resource pegs their 2022 commitments in the $84MM range. That’s not much compared to the rest of the league, but it’d be a franchise-record sum for Tampa Bay. Is ownership willing to support that kind of expenditure entering the season? Even if so, would the front office prefer to reallocate Glasnow’s projected money as they attempt to make a run at their fifth consecutive 90-win showing?

The Rays aren’t going to move Glasnow solely to shed salary. Were that the case, they’d have simply non-tendered him before November’s deadline. But they seem likely to consider trade offers, particularly if they can get help for 2022 in return. Rosenthal and Lin reported Tampa Bay and the Cubs kicked around trade formulations involving Glasnow and Kris Bryant and/or Craig Kimbrel before last summer’s deadline. Those obviously didn’t come to fruition, but the Rays will probably look into similar possibilities after the lockout.

Any team with designs on contending in 2023 could be a plausible trade partner. A retooling organization like the Cubs or Nationals could take on a few million dollars during a non-competitive season with an eye towards a quick rebound after selling off pieces last summer. An immediate contender with more near-term financial flexibility than the Rays have could see this as a buy-low opportunity. Trades of players this talented between contenders are uncommon, but given the Rays’ financial situation and the timing of Glasnow’s surgery, a deal during the expected post-lockout transactions frenzy wouldn’t be surprising.

The Rangers Shouldn’t Ease Up After The Lockout

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Many teams effectively sat out the free-agent market prior to the lockout, and the Rangers took full advantage of the lack of activity from some of the sport’s top spenders. Led by longtime president of baseball operations Jon Daniels, second-year GM Chris Young and an ownership group that clearly isn’t interested in a protracted rebuild, the Rangers doled out more than half a billion dollars to sign Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray and Kole Calhoun. For most clubs, spending more than $500MM in free agency would seem a defensible point at which to call it a day, but if the Rangers are serious about returning to contention sooner than later, they’re not likely to be satisfied with, ahem, “just” Seager, Semien, Gray, etc.

The 2021 Rangers, to put things charitably, were a disaster. Texas lost 102 games and batted a combined .232/.294/.375. The resulting 84 wRC+ (indicating that their collective offense was 16 percent below league average) tied for the third-worst mark in MLB. Rangers hitters ranked 28th in total runs scored, 26th in home runs, 29th in walk percentage and dead last in on-base percentage.

If the Rangers boasted a deep and talented pitching staff, perhaps the additions of Seager and Semien alone would be enough to foster hope, but we know that’s not the case. Texas starters ranked 28th in the Majors in ERA (5.33) and FIP (5.19) alike — and that’s including the contributions of the since-traded Kyle Gibson, who provided 113 innings of 2.87 ERA/3.76 FIP ball.

The signing of Gray gives the Rangers a big arm on which they can dream, but Gray, Dane Dunning and Taylor Hearn are the only pitchers on the roster who reached 100 innings and posted even passable results. It’s questionable to even include Hearn in that trio, as nearly all of his success came out of the bullpen (5.82 ERA in the rotation versus 3.54 out of the ’pen in near-identical samples of innings). The only pitcher currently on the roster who posted an ERA better than Dunning’s 4.55 out of the rotation last season is right-hander A.J. Alexy, who logged a 2.79 ERA in 19 1/3 innings but also walked nearly as many hitters as he struck out (13 walks, 14 punchouts).

Things are a bit rosier in the bullpen, where Texas will welcome back injured closer Jose Leclerc, who missed 2021 due to Tommy John surgery. Impressive young righty Jonathan Hernandez is likely to return at some point in 2022 as well after missing this past season following his own Tommy John procedure. The Rangers can also look forward to full seasons from standout rookie Joe Barlow and NPB returnee Spencer Patton, who began the 2021 season in Triple-A but pitched effectively following his June call to the bigs.

Suffice it to say, even with the big splashes they’ve made to date, the Rangers don’t yet look like a contender. That’s not news to the Texas front office, which made these moves despite surely being aware that even if everything breaks right in ’22, they’re at best a long-shot to vie for a playoff berth.

That said, there’s already indication that the Rangers aren’t planning to take their foot off the gas when transactions resume. Texas has been linked to star NPB outfielder Seiya Suzuki, who has been posted by the Hiroshima Carp and will sign with an MLB club once the transaction freeze lifts. The Rangers were also reportedly looking into the asking price on division-rival star Matt Olson, and they chatted with the Reds about Cincinnati’s collection of available starting pitchers. Manager Chris Woodward even went so far as to acknowledge that the team has been in contact with free agent Clayton Kershaw — a Dallas-area resident who is a first-time free agent this winter.

Onlookers may question how the Rangers can afford this level of spending spree. However, Texas has gone to great lengths to pare its payr0ll in recent years, and rather than “rebuild” through three to five dismal seasons of tanking and cultivating draft picks, it seems the Rangers plan to instead use their fiscal might in conjunction with a pair of lofty draft statuses (2021 and 2022) in hopes of an accelerated retooling.

In terms of club payroll, the Rangers only have about $127MM committed to next year’s books, in the estimation of Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. That figure will drop to around $80MM in 2023. For a club that has previously run payrolls as lofty as $165MM (in 2017), there’s a good bit of financial leeway for further additions — particularly those that could impact the roster beyond the 2022 season.

A multi-year deal for the 27-year-old Suzuki, for instance, makes good sense for a Texas club that currently figures to shuffle Nick Solak, Willie Calhoun and Eli White through left field and DH at-bats. Texas is also among the more reasonable fits for 29-year-old lefty Carlos Rodon, who was one of the best pitchers on the planet in 2021 but ended the year with some troubling shoulder concerns. Agent Scott Boras — who also represents both Seager and Semien — has said Rodon is seeking a multi-year deal. We’ve seen the Rangers issue some surprising three-year deals in the past (e.g. Lance Lynn, Mike Minor, Gibson) — albeit in the $30MM range, which is likely a good ways south of where Rodon is aiming. Trade candidates like Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas, Pablo Lopez and other starters with multiple years of control should also be squarely in the Rangers’ sights, particularly if any are amenable to extensions.

Relatively youthful free agent pitchers and trade targets with multiple years of club control (and/or an openness to an extension) will be paramount, given the lack of high-end pitching prospects knocking on the door in Arlington. This past season’s No. 2 overall draft pick, Jack Leiter, could be a fast mover but has yet to throw a professional pitch. Righty Cole Winn, a 2019 first-rounder, briefly reached Triple-A last season and could eventually give the team a mid-rotation arm. That’s about the extent of the team’s high-upside pitching prospects who are at least within striking distance of the big leagues, so pairing some veterans with Gray and Dunning will be crucial if Texas hopes to turn things around come 2023.

Around the diamond, things are a bit more steady. Adding Seager and Semien gives the team a pair of lineup linchpins, and top prospect Josh Jung should debut in 2022, pushing slick-fielding Isiah Kiner-Falefa to a utility role in which he could thrive. There’s room for a bat like Suzuki in left field, as previously alluded to, and the team’s interest in Olson suggests a willingness to upgrade over Nate Lowe at first base (or at least to push Lowe to a DH role). Catcher Jonah Heim has a brutal season at the dish in 2021, but the Rangers are hoping prospect Sam Huff can eventually seize that spot.

By 2023, the Rangers will be free of the dead-money commitments owed to Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor. The only arbitration raise of any note slated for the 2023 payroll (and for the 2022 payroll, for that matter), is that of Kiner-Falefa. Semien, Seager and Gray are the only three players whose ’23 salaries are guaranteed. You can argue that it’s wiser to wait until next offseason, but if that were the plan, the team wouldn’t have already spent to the extent it has. To give their aggressive mindset the best chance to succeed, the Rangers should add at least one more arm and one more bat to the mix. They certainly have the payroll capacity to do just that.

Braves, A’s Discussed Matt Olson Prior To Lockout

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When — or whether — the Braves will re-sign Freddie Freeman has been one of the most pressing issues on the minds of the Atlanta fan base for the better part of a year, but the 2020 NL MVP entered the current MLB lockout as a free agent with no real indication of progress toward a return to Truist Park on the horizon. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes this morning that there’s obvious incentive for either Freeman or the Braves to act quickly, one way or another, once the lockout finally ends. Most notably, Rosenthal reports that the Braves indeed spoke to the A’s about a potential Matt Olson deal prior to the lockout (as had been previously suggested), adding that the talks should not be written off as simple due diligence.

An early strike by the Braves to acquire Olson would register as nothing short of a stunner. The longstanding belief has been that despite the ostensible lack of traction in talks, Freeman will eventually reach a deal to return to the same team for which he’s played the first dozen seasons of a potential Hall-of-Fame career. It’s been even more widely expected that the A’s will trade Olson, particularly in the wake of comments from GM David Forst that the team will listen to offers on all of its top players (in preparation for a payroll reduction). However, Freeman’s legacy in Atlanta has made the Braves feel like a long shot, at best.

The 27-year-old Olson (28 in March) has been most prominently linked to the Yankees thus far in the offseason, though a good portion of the ink dedicated to that fit has been speculative in nature. The Rangers are among the other clubs to have been tied to Olson on the heels of a career year in Oakland.

Olson, the No. 47 overall draft pick back in 2012, dramatically reduced his strikeout rate this past season without conceding anything in terms of power or walk rate. He’d fanned in 26.1% of his career plate appearances heading into 2021, including a career-worst 31.4% clip in 2020, but slashed that mark to 16.8% this past season. Meanwhile, he walked at a 13.1% clip and slugged a career-best 39 home runs and 35 doubles — all while playing standout defense at first base. He’s controlled for another two seasons before free agency and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $12MM this coming year in the first of those two campaigns.

If the Braves were to make the unpopular decision to move on from Freeman, Olson would represent the best option — at least among plausibly available targets in free agency and on the trade market. Alternatives such as free agent Anthony Rizzo or trade candidate Luke Voit would be less impactful. That said, the $12MM projection on Olson’s 2021 salary is more than twice as much as this past season’s $5MM salary, and he’d be in line for a similarly massive raise for the 2023 campaign before hitting free agency in arguably an even better position than Freeman currently occupies.

While Freeman, of course, has the lengthier track record, Olson stands to reach the open market in advance of his age-30 season. Freeman will play the bulk of the upcoming season at 32 before turning 33 in September. Should Olson continue at his 2021 pace — or anything close to it — he could viably seek a contract of even greater length and/or greater total value than Freeman is currently seeking; an extension for Olson wouldn’t figure to be much cheaper, given his blend of youth, recent track record and relative proximity to the open market.

Also vital to consider is the enormous asking price that’s sure to be placed on Olson. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweeted a couple months back that the Athletics were “shooting for the moon” in any talks regarding Olson — understandably so. It’s increasingly rare in MLB to see a player of this caliber, with this much club control remaining, actually change hands on the trade market. Using FanGraphs’ wins above replacement as a loose barometer, Olson would be the third-best player (based on 2019-21 WAR) with multiple years of control remaining to be traded over the past three years. One of the two names ahead of him, Nolan Arenado, isn’t really a comparable given that he’d already been signed to a massive extension that impacted the nature of trade talks between the Rockies and Cardinals.

The other name ahead of Olson in those WAR rankings is perhaps the best and most direct recent comparable: Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto. The Phils surrendered one of baseball’s 15 best overall prospects (Sixto Sanchez), plus an immediate MLB-ready replacement (Jorge Alfaro, who’d recently ranked as a top prospect himself) and a solid mid-tier organizational arm in lefty Will Stewart. Starling Marte was traded from Pittsburgh to Arizona when he had two years remaining on his contract, netting the Bucs now-top-100 prospect Liover Peguero and pitching prospect Brennan Malone. However, Marte was 31 at the time of that trade and wasn’t coming off nearly as strong a season as Olson’s 2021 showing.

Simply put, a package to acquire Olson should considerably outpace what the Bucs received for Marte, and he arguably ought to fetch more than Realmuto did. That’s not to suggest that an Olson package would be a direct, apples-to-apples comparison with the Realmuto swap — but rather to illustrate the sizable value that a player of this caliber carries when he has multiple years of control remaining. Certainly, the packages would differ. For instance, Atlanta doesn’t have a prospect who’s currently as well-regarded as Sanchez was at the time that deal. The A’s could well have different priorities than the Marlins did, too; they’d surely require a premium headliner but have also been known to pursue volume-based approaches of MLB-ready talent rather than packages strictly composed of far-off, but high-upside minor leaguers. (See their return packages for Josh Donaldson, Jeff Samardzija, Sonny Gray, Rich Hill/Josh Reddick, Ryan Madson/Sean Doolittle and more.)

If the Braves’ primary trepidation regarding a Freeman deal is the length of the contract, as has been oft-suggested, then an Olson acquisition may only be a slightly more palatable road to traverse — unless the front office is content to ship out heaps of young talent in exchange for a two-year rental and a subsequent draft pick (if the qualifying offer system even remains in place following the collective bargaining talks). Broadly speaking, the sorts of contracts currently being sought by Freeman and likely to be sought by Olson in the near future are the very types that Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has eschewed since being hired in Nov. 2017.

While the Braves slightly broke from their aversion to long-term commitments in last winter’s ill-fated re-signing of Marcell Ozuna (four years, $65MM), even that contract only materialized after Ozuna was unable to secure the fifth year he originally sought. Outside of that four-year pact, the Braves have shown a strong preference for shorter-term deals, often at premium annual values — a similar philosophy to that of the Dodgers, where Anthopoulos served as senior vice president of baseball ops prior to being hired in Atlanta. Will Smith’s three-year, $39MM deal is the next-largest free agent deal given out under Anthopoulos in Atlanta. The only times he’s gone to five years or more have been on wildly team-friendly deals for young stars Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies.

Whether the Braves are willing to break that mold for Freeman can’t be known, but it’s nevertheless notable that they’ve had talks with the A’s about a potential replacement. It’s perhaps even more telling that, as Rosenthal suggests, either Freeman or the Braves could move quickly in a new direction post-lockout after spending the past 12 months in a staring contest.

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Royals Sign Colten Brewer To Minor League Deal

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The Royals have signed righty Colten Brewer to a minor league contract, per a club announcement. Presumably, he’ll head to Major League Spring Training as a non-roster invitee whenever the lockout draws to a close. Brewer was outrighted off the Red Sox’ 40-man roster in June and was not added back prior to the end of the season. That allowed him to become a minor league free agent at season’s end (and thus allowed him to sign during the current Major League transaction freeze).

Brewer, 29, has spent the past three seasons in Boston, logging a combined 81 1/3 innings of 4.98 ERA ball with a 20.3% strikeout rate, a 13.3% walk rate and a 50.4% ground-ball rate. He was a solid and oft-used member of the Boston bullpen in 2019 (4.12 ERA, 54 2/3 innings) but has since been clobbered for a 6.75 ERA in 26 2/3 innings. He appeared in just one game with the Sox in the 2021 season, allowing four runs in a lone inning before being designated for assignment and clearing outright waivers.

While Brewer hasn’t had extensive MLB success, it’s easy enough to see why a team might be intrigued by a no-risk flier on the righty. He’s averaged nearly 94 mph on his go-to cutter over the past few seasons, shown strong spin rates on his breaking ball and boasted that well above-average grounder rate. For the Royals, in particular, that affinity for grounders is surely appealing; Kansas City has talented infield defenders such as Nicky Lopez, Whit Merrifield and Adalberto Mondesi already in the big leagues, with top prospects Bobby Witt Jr. and Nick Pratto expected to debut in 2022. They’re known more for their bats than their gloves, but both Witt and Pratto are well regarded defenders in addition to their prodigious potential at the dish.

Bullpen help figures to be one of the main priorities for the Royals post-lockout. President of baseball operations Dayton Moore spoke in November of building a “championship-caliber bullpen,” and while Brewer is little more than depth for the time being, most of the game’s best bullpens have unearthed a hidden gem or two on just this type of non-guaranteed deal.

Stockpiling bullpen options is only natural, and the Royals, who have also added former Braves closer Arodys Vizcaino in recent weeks, figure to take a few dice rolls of this nature in addition to pursuing some more notable veterans — once that is permitted. At present, each of Josh Staumont, Scott Barlow, Jake Brentz and perhaps Domingo Tapia has a bullpen job locked down, but there should be plenty of competition to round out the remainder of the relief corps.

Trey Hillman To Join Angels’ Player Development Staff

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Veteran coach and manager Trey Hillman, who left the Marlins organization earlier this offseason, is set to join the Angels as a member of their player development staff, Andy McCullough of The Athletic reports (via Twitter). He served as the third base coach and infield coach in Miami this past season.

The 59-year-old Hillman will bring a wide breadth of experience to his latest role within the sport. Hillman spent parts of three seasons as a minor league infielder in the mid-1980s before transitioning to a scouting and minor league coaching career. Over the next three-plus decades, he’d go on to work as a bench coach, third base coach and first base coach with the Dodgers, Astros and Marlins. He’s also held front office roles with the Yankees and the Rangers, where he served as the team’s director of player development.

Major League fans might remember Hillman best for his time as Royals skipper from 2008-10 — a stretch of three lean seasons that preceded the team’s rise to prominence under successor Ned Yost. The Royals, however, are hardly the lone managerial stop on Hillman’s lengthy résumé. In addition to several years managing in the Yankees’ minor league ranks, Hillman has managed — and won championships — in both Nippon Professional Baseball and the Korea Baseball Organization. Hillman managed the Nippon-Ham Fighters in Japan from 2003-07 and won a Japan Series title in 2006. He also skippered the KBO’s SK Wyverns (now the SSG Landers) from 2017-18, capturing a Korean Series title in the second of those two campaigns.

That stint with the Wyverns made Hillman the only person to ever manage in each of Major League Baseball, Nippon Professional Baseball and the Korea Baseball Organization. The Halos will be the ninth organization for which he’s worked in a career that is approaching four decades in professional baseball.

Kevin Gausman: Giants “Never Made Me An Offer”

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The Giants were known to be looking to re-sign Kevin Gausman, and as the free agent right-hander neared his decision, it appeared as though the Giants were one of the favorites to get Gausman’s name on the dotted line.  However interested the club may have been in a reunion, it appears as though the Giants’ explorations never manifested themselves into an actual contract offer.

According to Gausman himself via his Twitter account, “I want to set the record straight for y’all [because] there has been a lot of [BS] out there about this.  SF never made me an offer.  Simple as that.”   It doesn’t appear that Gausman necessarily had any hard feelings over the lack of an offer, as after signing with the Blue Jays prior the lockout, he issued a pair of tweets thanking both the Giants and San Francisco fans.

Gausman’s 2020 season in San Francisco was impressive enough that the Giants issued him a qualifying offer following the season, and the two sides discussed a multi-year deal before Gausman ultimately opted to just accept the one-year, $18.9MM QO.  With Gausman pitching even better in 2021, the righty was now lined up nicely for a much bigger multi-year deal that whatever would’ve been on the table from the Giants or other teams in the 2020-21 offseason, and Gausman ended up landing a five-year, $110MM pact from the Jays.

Beyond the Blue Jays and Giants, at least six other teams (the Tigers, Mets, Red Sox, Angels, Mariners, and Cubs) were known to have at least some degree of interest in signing Gausman.  Of that group, the Mets reportedly offered Gausman a larger contract than what he accepted from Toronto.

As Gausman’s incumbent team, the Giants had extra time to negotiate with his agents at the Tidal Sports Group and ascertain how much the now 31-year-old was looking for on the open market.  If San Francisco either felt Gausman was out of their preferred price range to begin with, or felt the bidding got too intense once the other seven clubs got involved, the Giants might have not bothered making Gausman an offer that they knew wouldn’t be accepted.

This tracks with the perception that the Giants aren’t keen on making nine-figure contract offers in general, or at least not a high salary spread out over an extended period of time.  Farhan Zaidi’s front office has spent some money this offseason, if only on shorter-term deals — re-signing Anthony DeSclafani for three years and $36MM, re-signing Alex Wood on a two-year, $25MM pact, and adding a new arm to the pitching staff in Alex Cobb on a two-year, $20MM deal.  Beyond those pitchers, Brandon Belt also accepted San Francisco’s qualifying offer, staying in the Bay Area on an $18.4MM salary for 2022.

That adds up to $99.4MM for four players, or less than the Jays paid for Gausman alone.  While it could be argued that the Giants have more than enough available payroll space to have signed that quartet plus Gausman, the team seemingly either prefers to spread their dollars around, or are saving a bigger splurge for another player.  A right-handed hitting outfielder could fit the bill, as the Giants have been linked to Seiya Suzuki and (before he signed with the Mets) Starling Marte.  Free agents like Nick Castellanos or former Giant Kris Bryant also fit the description, but they have asking prices beyond the $100MM mark.

How NL Teams Have Addressed Their Weakest Positions Of 2021

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Since the lockout has resulted in close to two very quiet months of offseason activity, teams will have plenty to do once the Major League transactions freeze is finally over, including addressing many of the positions on this list.  However, some teams have already taken steps to fix their more glaring weak spots from the 2021 season (as determined by bWAR).  Let’s take a look at the progress that has been made, with the note that we’ll ignore the DH position for this look at National League teams…

Braves (Catcher, -1.3 bWAR): With Travis d’Arnaud on the injured list for much of the season, Atlanta turned to a grab bag of catchers to tread water before d’Arnaud returned in August and solidified the position through the Braves’ run to the World Series.  Since d’Arnaud is always an injury risk, the Braves signed Manny Pina to a two-year deal, adding a veteran complement rather than rely on a larger role for youngsters William Contreras or Shea Langeliers.

Brewers (First base -0.5 bWAR): Though Milwaukee didn’t get much from first base as a whole all year, Rowdy Tellez did hit pretty well after being acquired in a midseason trade from the Blue Jays.  On paper, Tellez will be the Brew Crew’s first choice at the position, with the newly-acquired Mike Brosseau and former top prospect Keston Hiura acting as right-handed hitting complements.  There’s some flexibility here for the Brewers to adjust if, say, Hiura can escape his two-year-long slump, or if the team decides to make another in-season trade for a bigger bat.

Cardinals (Relief pitching, 1.0 bWAR): It is a testament to the Cards’ general depth that their “worst” position was a comparatively solid 1.0 bWAR, as while their hitting was generally middle-of-the-pack, even their weakest bats still contributed with excellent defense.  That leaves the bullpen as the relative weak link, and St. Louis has thus far re-signed veteran lefty T.J. McFarland and brought in Kyle Ryan on a minor league deal, while another veteran in Luis Garcia left to join the Padres.  It’s probably more likely that the Cardinals still stick to somewhat lower-level transactions to augment their pen, as the team has some young starters on the farm that could be deployed in relief roles, if they aren’t needed for the rotation.  Giovanny Gallegos pitched well in the closer’s role, though St. Louis get some added depth via a veteran with ninth-inning experience.

Cubs (Starting pitching, -1.2 bWAR): After unloading most of their veterans at the trade deadline, the Cubs indicated they weren’t willing to head into rebuild mode just yet, as they signed Marcus Stroman to a three-year, $71MM deal and claimed Wade Miley off waivers from the salary-dumping Reds.  Neither represents a major long-term commit (Stroman can opt out after the 2023 season and Miley is under contract only through 2022), yet Wrigleyville’s rotation already looks much better on paper.  Kyle Hendricks has another spot claimed, and the Cubs could use any of Adbert Alzolay, Alec Mills, Justin Steele, or top prospect Brailyn Marquez for the final two spots.  Alternatively, Chicago could acquire a fairly inexpensive veteran arm to either be penciled into the fourth rotation spot, or to provide further competition for those younger pitchers.

Diamondbacks (Relief pitching, -3-3 bWAR): There weren’t many areas of strength for the 110-loss D’Backs, yet the bullpen was easily the team’s biggest issue.  Even though the Diamondbacks face an uphill battle in contending next year, the relief corps was dire enough that Arizona felt the need for a notable bullpen signing, adding Mark Melancon for two years and $14MM.  Melancon might end up being the Diamondbacks’ biggest investment in the pen, as the club has also added Keynan Middleton, Edwin Uceta, Zack Burdi, and Kyle Nelson on minor league deals and waiver claims, and could pursue a similar low-cost path with other relief additions.

Dodgers (Center field, 0.8 bWAR): Cody Bellinger’s brutal 2021 season makes him a big question mark heading into 2022.  The Dodgers aren’t ready to give up on the former NL MVP, yet it’s probably safe to assume their decision to re-sign super-utilityman Chris Taylor was at least partially inspired by the need to have a backup plan in place should Bellinger again struggle at the plate.  Since L.A. probably doesn’t want to use Mookie Betts or AJ Pollock in center more than they have to, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Dodgers target another center field-capable utility type or maybe just a pure outfielder in their post-lockout moves.

Giants (Second base, 1.6 bWAR): This is the best bWAR of any team’s “worst” position, which isn’t surprising given how the Giants expertly juggled their roster en route to 107 victories.  Tommy La Stella spending a big chunk of the year on the IL contributed to the relative lack of second base production, and a healthy La Stella in a platoon with Thairo Estrada and Wilmer Flores be the in-house answer to improving the keystone.  As always, however, the Giants figure to explore their options for multi-positional names both small and large, and San Francisco has the payroll space to make a bigger infield addition if they chose that path.

Marlins (Catcher, -1.5 bWAR): With the combination of Jorge Alfaro, Sandy Leon, Alex Jackson, and Chad Wallach providing little help behind the plate, the Marlins went for the big swing and acquired Jacob Stallings from the Pirates.  Miami had to give up a package of three prospects to seal the deal, but giving up two controllable minor league arms was an acceptable price for a team with the Marlins’ pitching depth.  The plan now is for Stallings’ strong defense and game-calling abilities to help aid Miami’s arms at the big league level.

Mets (Catcher, 0 bWAR): After signing James McCann to a four-year, $40.6MM deal last winter, the Mets expected a lot more than a .232/.294/.349 slash line over 412 plate appearances.  With backup Tomas Nido not hitting much, New York will just have to hope that McCann needed some time to adjust to a new league, and that the backstop can return to his old All-Star form.

Nationals (Relief pitching, -4.6 bWAR): No team in any positional category had a lower number than the Washington bullpen’s -4.6 bWAR, and the Nats only subtracted from their relief corps in moving Daniel Hudson and Brad Hand as part of their deadline selloff.  The Nationals have added some lower-level arms as depth, and this could wind up as their tactic later in the winter, as it isn’t yet clear if D.C. will use 2022 as a reset year or if they’ll make a larger push to contend.

Padres (Catcher, 0.4 bWAR): With the Marlins ready to move on from Alfaro, A.J. Preller picked up yet another player with former Rangers ties when San Diego acquired Alfaro from Miami just prior to the lockout.  The Padres’ problems at catcher were largely due to an injury-riddled year from prospective starter Austin Nola, so assuming Nola is healthy and productive, the Padres might have something of a surplus at the position (between backup Victor Caratini and top prospect Luis Campusano) if Alfaro can get on track whatsoever.  Campusano’s name was floated in some trade talks with the Cubs and Nationals back at the deadline, and he has been speculatively mentioned as a trade chip again this winter.

Phillies (Third base, -0.9 bWAR): Between the hot corner, the shortstop position (-0.5 bWAR), center field and left field (1.3 bWAR each), the Phillies have a lot of holes to fill prior to Opening Day.  In theory, third base could be the easiest to address if the club decides to just stay the course with Alec Bohm, who followed up a great rookie season with a mediocre 2021 campaign.  Bohm would hardly be the first player to rebound from a sophomore slump, but since shortstop is also a need, the Phillies might look to acquire a multi-positional infield type who could conceivably step in at either short or third base.

Pirates (Right field, -1.5 bWAR): Since the Bucs are still rebuilding, it isn’t clear if they’ll add any significant veteran upgrades at right field or any other position for 2022.  If not, waiver pickup Greg Allen has joined Ben Gamel, Anthony Alford, and 2018 first-rounder Travis Swaggerty in the mix for playing time in the corner outfield positions.

Reds (Third base, -1.4 bWAR): The experiment of Eugenio Suarez as the Reds’ starting shortstop came to a quick end, yet Suarez struggled at the plate basically all season long, and Mike Moustakas (who began the year at third base) also struggled at the plate and battled injuries.  There are some real warning signs about Suarez’s lack of offensive production over the last two years, and with Cincinnati perhaps looking more towards payroll cuts than roster upgrades this winter, there’s no easy fix other than hoping Suarez and/or Moustakas can get back on track.

Rockies (Center field, 0.9 bWAR): The outfield is a need in general for Colorado, and finding a center fielder represents a particular challenge since spacious Coors Field almost demands a good defender up the middle.  None of their 2021 center field options in Garrett Hampson, Yonathan Daza, or Sam Hilliard exactly fit the bill, as Hampson may be the best fielder of the bunch but might end up in the infield rather than on the grass.  The Rockies reportedly had interest in Kris Bryant before the lockout, and a major signing like that would certainly fill the need for a big bat in the lineup, even if Bryant could or would be deployed at several positions rather than be used at a full-time center fielder.

Recapping The CPBL’s International Player Signings

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Chinese Professional Baseball League teams are preparing for their spring camps, and the last several months have seen the CPBL’s five clubs adding some familiar foreign-born names to their rosters.  Under CPBL rules, teams are allowed to have a maximum of four international players on their active rosters, so with some teams opting to add a fifth or sixth player to keep in their minor leagues for replacement purposes.  However, replacing an international player isn’t as simple as a normal call-up — a foreign player must be released in order to be removed from a CPBL team’s active roster.

There isn’t an official limit on how many international-born players can be signed per team, so it is possible that more names could be added to this list in the coming days or weeks.  (The post will be updated to reflect such moves.)  Much thanks to the CPBL Stats website for their work in reporting on many of these signings.  Here’s the rundown…

CTBC Brothers
Jose De Paula, Shawn Morimando, Francisco Pena, Teddy Stankiewicz, Jose Valdez

Fubon Guardians
Xavier Batista, Yomar Flande Concepcion, Luis Escobar, Joe Van Meter

Rakuten Monkeys
Ryan Bollinger, Dylan Covey, Bradin Hagens, Henry Sosa

Uni-President Lions
Brock Dykxhoorn, Keury Mella, Logan Ondrusek, Wilin Rosario

Wei Chuan Dragons
Jake Brigham, Drew Gagnon, Telvin Nash, Ronny Rodriguez, Bryan Woodall

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Sign Kenley Jansen?

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Kenley Jansen has been one of baseball’s best closers for a decade now. He recorded 25 saves in 2012 and hasn’t been below that number since, which the exception of his 11 saves in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. He’s thrown at least 50 innings in the last ten full seasons and threw 24 1/3 in 2020. He’s never had an ERA higher than 3.71. His 350 saves rank him 13th on the all-time list.

There are some reasons to be bearish, however. For one, he just turned 34 years old, meaning it will become more challenging for him to maintain his previous levels of success in the future. He also just posted a walk rate of 12.9% in 2021, his worst such mark since his debut in 2010. But on the bullish side of things, he diversified his arsenal last year, reducing his cutter usage from previous levels of around 90% to just 58% in 2021. Despite the increased walk rate, he was largely effective, putting up an ERA of 2.22 and strikeout rate of 30.9%.

In MLBTR’s annual list of the Top 50 Free Agents, Jansen was one of seven relievers to make the grade, coming in at #29 overall with a predicted contract of $26MM over two years. Five of those seven were able to secure deals before the lockout, as Raisel Iglesias, Kendall Graveman, Corey Knebel, Hector Neris and Mark Melancon are all off the board. That means Jansen and Ryan Tepera are the two best options remaining for teams that wish to upgrade their bullpens without having to give up anything in a trade. Jansen was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer by virtue of having previously received one in his career, meaning it will only take cash to land him.

Jansen would certainly upgrade any bullpen in the league and should garner plenty of interest given it likely won’t require a lengthy commitment to sign him. Even a team that doesn’t jump out as a slam-dunk contender can make a surprising splash on a reliever, such as when the Diamondbacks snapped up Melancon on a two-year deal, despite winning just 52 games last year. Still, the most logical suitor for Jansen would be a team in win-now mode with enough money to spend that they can afford paying him around $13MM per year. Let’s consider some speculative fits.

The last time Jansen was a free agent, he re-signed with the Dodgers, the only organization he’s ever known. Perhaps the most sensible prediction is that he just sticks with the team he’s played his entire career with. However, the Dodgers already have a strong bullpen and more urgent needs elsewhere on the roster, particularly the starting rotation. It can’t be ruled out that they let Kenley walk and dedicate their resources elsewhere.

The Cardinals have some uncertainty in their bullpen, as Alex Reyes led the team in saves last year but may be converted to the starting rotation in 2022. They already have a strong rotation and lineup, and seem content to not pursue shortstop upgrades. Perhaps upgrading the bullpen is the best avenue for improving the team as a whole.

The Red Sox seemed like they had their closer situation resolved when they extended Matt Barnes in July. At the time, Barnes was enjoying an excellent season, sitting on an ERA of 2.68. However, things went badly for him down the stretch and he ended up with an ERA of 3.79 by season’s end, even being left off Boston’s playoff roster at times. Adding Jansen could potentially stabilize a bullpen that’s fairly short on experience, though the club is also going to be looking to replace Hunter Renfroe’s offensive production once the lockout is over.

The Astros are loaded in the rotation and their lineup. They could use a shortstop, either by bringing back Carlos Correa or some other option. However, they seem comfortable letting Jeremy Pena step forward as Correa’s heir apparent. The bullpen is already in good shape, but would certainly benefit from adding someone of Jansen’s caliber.

The Blue Jays had some bullpen issues in 2021, as their reliever corps finished 16th in ERA, 20th in FIP, 12th in xFIP, 12th in SIERA and 25th in fWAR. The club is reportedly planning to spend after the lockout, but they still could use upgrades elsewhere, particularly the infield.

The Giants have lots of payroll space and apparently want to spread it around, as opposed to making one big splash. This approach to team roster construction mirrors that of the Dodgers, the previous team of both Jansen and Giants’ president Farhan Zaidi. Perhaps they could spread their money around on another starter, an outfield bat and a reliever like Jansen. Jake McGee was the team leader in saves in 2021 with 31. Although he’ll be back with the Giants this year, he’s even older than Jansen, as he’ll turn 36 in August.

The Tigers have already been busy this offseason, upgrading their lineup with Javier Baez and Tucker Barnhart, and adding Eduardo Rodriguez to the rotation. If there’s still more cash in their wallet, going after Jansen would be an intriguing next step as their pitching staff is largely composed of younger players. Gregory Soto led the team in saves in 2021, though he has concerning walk rates.

The Rangers have spent even more than the Tigers, adding Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Kole Calhoun and Jon Gray. If they still have more left to spend, the bullpen could definitely use an upgrade. In 2021, the club’s relievers finished 17th in ERA, 16th in FIP, 21st in xFIP, 21st in SIERA and 19th in fWAR.

The Mariners have been similarly aggressive recently, adding Robbie Ray and Adam Frazier thus far. But with some really good relievers already on hand, if they do have another big move left, it might be going after a big bat such as Kris Bryant.

The Marlins went into the offseason needing offense, but they’ve already added Avisail Garcia, Joey Wendle and Jacob Stallings to their group of position players. Although they haven’t been big spenders in recent years, Jansen shouldn’t be prohibitively expensive. However, their deal for Garcia and the extension of Sandy Alcantara already went beyond anything else they’ve done recently.

The Mets have already gone absolutely wild this offseason, spending big bucks to upgrade their lineup and rotation. Although they already have a fine closer in Edwin Diaz, if they still have money left to spend, the bullpen is one area they haven’t targeted yet.

The Rockies could certainly use the help in their bullpen, but they have work to do on their lineup and rotation as well. It also has to be said that convincing pitchers to spend their time in the Colorado’s hitter-friendly atmosphere is always a challenge.

You never want to sleep on the Yankees, but they already have a great bullpen and have greater uncertainty elsewhere, particularly the infield.

The Guardians are currently set to run a very low payroll, even for them. However, their bullpen is already in pretty decent shape, and if they make a splash anywhere, it’s most likely going to be the outfield.

The Twins signalled their desire to bounceback from a nightmare season by spending big on an extension for Byron Buxton, but their starting rotation is a more obvious area of improvement.

The Angels probably already made their big bullpen move when they re-signed Iglesias, ditto with the Phillies and Knebel and Diamondbacks and Melancon.

The Brewers are already projected to have a payroll just $2MM shy of their franchise record and already have an excellent pitching staff all around.

The Cubs are in the beginnings of a rebuild, though they’ve already surprised some people by adding Wade Miley, Yan Gomes and Marcus Stroman. Is there another surprising move up their sleeve?

Teams like the White Sox, Rays, Padres and Braves are already set to run franchise-high payrolls, which could make it challenging for them to win the bidding for Jansen’s services.

The Orioles and Pirates are deep in rebuilds and unlikely to beat the market on a top reliever like Jansen. The Royals are a bit closer to emerging from rebuilding status but still seem to be a long shot. The Athletics and Reds are reportedly more likely to subtract payroll after the lockout than add. The Nationals are retooling and haven’t yet shown any inclination towards spending big this offseason. However, as we saw with the Diamondbacks signing Melancon, surprises do happen. Perhaps a non-contender could sign him with the goal of trading him later.

A case could be made for any team in the league to add a talent like Jansen, but where do you think he will wind up? Have your say in our poll below.

(poll link for app users)

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