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Trade Candidate: J.D. Davis

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After being drafted by the Astros in 2014, J.D. Davis utterly mashed in the minors but couldn’t contribute much in his first couple of MLB seasons for Houston. From 2014 to 2018, Davis produced a wRC+ of at least 134 at each stop from Low-A up to Triple-A. Those tantalizing offensive skills were enough to get him a taste of MLB action in 2017 and 2018, playing 67 total games over those two seasons, but hitting just .194/.260/.321.

Prior to the 2019 season, the Mets took a chance on Davis, acquiring him from the Astros in the hope that his bat would eventually click in the Majors. The gamble paid off immediately, as Davis had an excellent year at the plate in 2019, hitting 22 home runs and slashing .307/.369/.527, producing a wRC+ of 137 and 2.4 fWAR over 140 games. He slipped a bit in the shortened 2020 campaign, tallying just six homers but still hitting above league average with a line of .247/.371/.389, wRC+ of 118. In 2021, he made multiple trips to the IL due to issues with his left hand, but still hit well when he was healthy, as he produced a line of .285/.384/.436 for a wRC+ of 130 in 73 games.

As the season was winding down and the Mets were clearly not going to be a factor in the postseason, Davis underwent surgery to address the hand issue, with the expectation that he would be ready to go for spring training. At the time, Davis was quoted as saying that he felt he only had a 50/50 chance of returning to the Mets in 2022. “I know there’s going to be plenty of changes up and down from the front office all the way down to here,” Davis said. “My gut feeling? I could be out of here. That’s what it’s kind of leaning towards. But there’s a possibility that I could come back. I love New York. I love the fans. I love the city. It’s a flip of the coin.”

Davis likely suspected his name to come up in trade talks due to the crowded infield situation in Queens. Robinson Cano sat out 2021 due to his PED suspension but will be returning for 2022. If Cano were to get significant playing time at second base, that could have meant Jeff McNeil or Luis Guillorme getting some time at third base with Davis. But then to complicate things further, the Mets went on a wild spending spree before the lockout, which included adding Eduardo Escobar into the second/third base jumble. If the National League were to implement the designated hitter for 2022, that could theoretically open up at-bats for someone in this group. However, the Mets also added Mark Canha and Starling Marte to their outfield, alongside Brandon Nimmo, which bumps Dominic Smith into the DH conversation, as Pete Alonso should have most of the playing time at first base. All of that would seemingly only increase the odds of Davis, or someone else, being squeezed out.

Davis has played a little bit of first base and left field in his big league career but is primarily a third baseman. Most metrics consider him a poor defender, even at his primary position, with all of DRS, UZR and OAA making heavy use of the minus sign in assessing his glovework. The addition of the DH to the NL, if it comes to fruition, should theoretically help the Mets find a taker for Davis, as it would increase the ability of some team to utilize his bat without exposing themselves to his weakness in the field.

Despite his flaws, Davis has produced 4.5 fWAR over 269 games in the last three seasons, which should give him plenty of appeal around the league. He turns 29 in April and has between three and four years’ service time, meaning he is under club control through the 2024 season, unless the new CBA makes significant changes to the previous service time structure. He’s already gone through arbitration once, as he reached Super Two status prior to last year, and earned $2.1MM in 2021. Due to his injury-hampered season, he is projected to earn a modest raise to $2.7MM for 2022, in the estimation of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. With his ability to hit, that affordable salary and years of control, he could potentially be a useful piece for any team in the league, including the Mets.

Who’s Blocking Brennen Davis?

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In the second round of the 2018 MLB draft, the Cubs selected outfielder Brennen Davis out of Basha High School in Arizona. Prior to the draft, his athleticism had been quite apparent, as he was also a highly touted basketball player, though he did drop basketball in his senior year to focus on baseball.

After the draft in 2018, he played 18 rookie ball games, slashing .298/.431/.333. In 2019, he got bumped up to A-ball, playing 50 games there and hitting .305/.381/.525, wRC+ of 160. His eight home runs were perhaps the most encouraging development, as it had been hoped that his power would catch up to athleticism in order for him to reach his ceiling. After the pandemic wiped out the minors in 2020, Davis spent the majority of 2021 in Double-A. In 76 games there, he hit 13 home runs and slashed .252/.367/.474, wRC+ of 135. He got promoted to Triple-A in September and hit even better, though over a small sample of just 15 games. His line at that level was .268/.397/.536. In Baseball America’s most recent list of the top 100 prospects in baseball, they put Davis in the 16th spot.

As Davis was having this excellent season in the minors, the Cubs were undergoing a big selloff at the big league level, trading away most of the core players from their recent championship run, including Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and others. The Cubs still have a stable of outfield options on the roster, such as Rafael Ortega, Ian Happ, Clint Frazier, Jason Heyward, Michael Hermosillo, Harold Ramirez, Alfonso Rivas, Greg Deichmann, Nelson Velazquez, Christopher Morel and Alexander Canario.

Despite all of those names, very few of them have done enough to guarantee themselves significant playing time this year. Happ is certain to be in there somewhere. Heyward will likely continue to get playing time with the Cubs hoping he plays well enough that they can move his contract somehow. Frazier and Ramirez are reclamation projects, having each been designated for assignment by their previous teams at the end of 2021. They will probably get some initial playing time as the Cubs see if they found some hidden gems, but they will have to show improvement in order to earn more than an audition. The rest of the group has little or no MLB experience. There’s also the distinct possibility that the Cubs continue their high-turnover roster churn of recent years and trade from this group.

Davis has played all three outfield positions in the minors, but more in center than the corners. The incumbent center fielder for the Cubs is Rafael Ortega, as he got most of the playing time there in the second half of 2021. It was something of a late career breakout season for Ortega, who has been bouncing from team to team for over a decade. Since his debut in affiliated ball in 2008, he’s played in the organizations of the Rockies, Cardinals, Angels, Padres, Marlins and Braves, before joining the Cubs. Going into 2021, he had played 143 MLB games across four different seasons, but he ended up playing 103 games for the Cubs last year, hitting .291/.360/.463 for a wRC+ of 120. His defense was considered slightly below average by Statcast, DRS and UZR, but because of his offensive contributions, he produced 1.6 fWAR in those 103 games. Still, due to his years as a journeyman, he’s not a long-term solution in center as he turns 31 in May.

Davis faces other obstacles to reaching the big leagues, however. For one thing, he’s not on the 40-man roster yet, as he won’t be Rule 5 eligible until the end of the year. That means that calling him up will involve someone else losing their spot. Then there’s also the service time question, which hovers over any highly-touted prospect who is near MLB-ready at the start of a season. In the ongoing CBA negotiations, the owners did make an attempt to address this, as their most recent proposal involved teams that promote top prospects on Opening Day being rewarded with an extra draft pick should that player eventually finish top five in the voting for MVP, Cy Young or Rookie of the Year. (More details here.) However, it’s unknown if that proposal, or a modified one, will survive until the new CBA is eventually agreed upon. Even if that provision exists, it’s not a guarantee that a team will value a theoretical draft pick more than guaranteeing themselves an extra year of control over a highly-touted prospect.

Regardless of how the timeline plays out, the 22-year-old Davis should be with the Cubs at some point this year, with the potential to be a key building block as they look to navigate a quick turnaround from their big selloff and open up a new competitive window.

2021-22 Offseason Outlook Series

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MLB Trade Rumors’ annual Offseason Outlook series is complete.  We broke down what all 30 teams might have in store for their winter moves, so be sure to check in with this post to find your favorite team’s entry is online.  The completed entries….

NL East

NL Central

NL West

AL East

AL Central

AL West

This Date In Transaction History: Red Sox Sign Mike Napoli

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On this date in 2003, the Red Sox made one of the best free-agent signings of all time. The story of David Ortiz’s Red Sox career is well-known and often recounted, however. So let’s fast-forward to this date eight years ago when the Red Sox added another pretty good first baseman/designated hitter: Mike Napoli put pen to paper and officially signed a one-year deal worth $5MM guaranteed. The deal was notable because the two sides had previously agreed to a three-year, $39MM contract that fell apart because of concern over the health of Napoli’s hip.

After the failed physical, Napoli briefly flirted with a return to the Texas Rangers, with whom he’d spent the previous two seasons. Napoli had been a significant trade acquisition for the Rangers following the 2010 season, making his one and only All-Star team while helping Texas repeat as American League champions. Though Texas would fall for the second consecutive season in the World Series, Napoli played lights out, slashing .350/.464/.700 in 28 plate appearances with two home runs and 10 runs driven in.

Regardless, the Red Sox had more playing time to offer the former catcher, and he became Boston’s new first basemen with a deal guaranteeing $5MM while still providing a ceiling of $13MM based on incentives. The 31-year-old would take home the full boat, cashing in with 139 games played, 578 plate appearances, and 3.7 rWAR by way of a .259/.360/.482 batting line. He chipped in 23 home runs despite a 32.4 percent strikeout rate.

Napoli was absolutely a contributing factor in the Red Sox turning around a 93-loss team from the season prior, becoming a 97-win juggernaut that rolled past the Rays, Tigers, and Cardinals to win the World Series title. Though Napoli would play in the World Series three times, 2013 was the only time he’d walk away with a ring.

Ultimately, though the hip issue got Napoli’s Boston tenure off to an inauspicious start, the relationship was an unmitigated success, so much so that Napoli re-upped following that 2013 campaign for another two seasons at a $16MM AAV. Ultimately, Napoli earned $45MM over that three-year stretch, well more than the $39MM he would have earned under the original terms of his deal.

These days, Napoli is a Quality Assurance Coach on the staff of one of his former teammates from that 2013 team, David Ross.

Wladimir Balentien Announces Retirement From NPB

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Wladimir Balentien is retiring from Nippon Professional Baseball in Japan, the outfielder announced via Twitter. The 37-year-old is best known for setting the NPB’s single-season home run record in 2013 when he slugged 60 home runs for Tokyo’s Yakult Swallows. Balentien played for 11 seasons in the NPB, suiting up for the Swallows for nine seasons from 2011-2019 and the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks for the past two seasons.

Balentien, who is of Curacaoan and Dutch descent, originally signed with the Mariners as a 16-year-old amateur free agent out of Venezuela in July of 2000. He debuted as an 18-year-old in 2003 with the Mariners’ rookie ball team. As he climbed the ranks of the Mariners’ system, Balentien’s star was on the rise.

He was invited to play in the Futures Game in both 2006 and 2007, then made Baseball Prospectus’ top-100 prospects list prior to the 2008 season at number 93. He debuted in the bigs in 2007, going 2-for-4 in a cup-of-coffee four plate appearances over three games.

Balentien would see real playing time in Seattle the next season, appearing in 71 games for 260 plate appearances. And while he continued to slug in the upper levels on the minors – slashing .266/.354/.584 that same season in Triple-A – he hit just .202/.250/.342 with the M’s.

After struggling again through 170 plate appearances the next season, the Mariners traded Balentien to the Reds for 25-year-old right-hander Robert Manuel. Balentien seemed to hit his stride the rest of that campaign, hitting .264/.352/.427 in Cincinnati. He was just 24-years-old at the time.

And yet, that would be the last time Balentien appeared in MLB. He hit well for the Reds’ Triple-A affiliate in 2010, but an outfield of Jonny Gomes, Drew Stubbs, and Jay Bruce played well enough to lead the Reds to a division title. Without an opportunity at the Major League level, “Coco” took his talents overseas, signing with the Yakult Swallows, where he would become a mainstay over the next nine seasons.

In his first season with the Swallows, Balentien led the Central League with 31 home runs. The Swallows would make the Finals, but fall to the Chunichi Dragons in six games.

Two seasons later, Balentien broke Sadaharu Oh’s record of 55 home runs in a single season, setting a new record with 60. Though a later revelation proved that a livelier baseball had been used for the 2013 season, Balentien’s record nevertheless stands today. He finished his career in Japan with a triple-slash line of .266/.370/.546 with 1,001 hits and 301 home runs.

Trade Candidate: Nick Ahmed

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This winter’s free-agent shortstop market has long-promised to shake up the league, and it’s lived up to its billing thus far. But we’re only part-way through the transfiguration. The Rangers signed two of the top shortstops available, adding a wrinkle that the other 29 clubs have yet to iron out. If nothing else, two significant dominoes – Carlos Correa and Trevor Story – have yet to fall, so there are even more twists-and-turns when the lockout ends.

For those teams not willing to plunk down six figures for a long-term solution like Correa or Story, however, it would be worth giving Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen a call to see about the availability of veteran Nick Ahmed. Ahmed struggled mightly at the plate in 2021, slashing just .221/.280/.339 over 473 plate appearances, but that’s never been his calling card.

If nothing else, he’s affordable. He’s entering his age-32 season with two years and $18.25MM left on his deal. The contract is affordable, but it could also be a potential obstacle. The money owed is substantial enough that teams may doubt whether he offers enough of an upgrade whatever they have in-house. Any rookie shortstop will offer better value potential because of a rookie minimum contract. Besides, it’s easy to dream on the untapped potential of a young player that you haven’t yet seen fail at the Major League level.

There is still, however, the question of whether the Diamondbacks would be willing to sell a player that’s come into his own with their franchise, becoming a fan favorite in the process. But after a disastrous 110-loss season, it’s hard to consider the Diamondbacks as anything but sellers.

They’ve finished last in the NL West for consecutive seasons and only made the playoffs once in the past decade. What’s more, they’re staring down what might be the most competitive division in baseball as the Dodgers, Giants, and Padres are each in pedal-to-the-metal, World-Series-hopeful mode.

As teams look to upgrade their rosters, there are only so many rosters to scour. This time of year, belief is rampant, so finding a trade partner requires either an aligning of team needs, a team looking to cut payroll, or as in the Diamondbacks case, a team in rebuilding mode with an outside shot at contention next season. Whether the Diamondbacks see themselves in that light is unclear, given that they’re just two offseasons removed from signing Madison Bumgarner to a five-year, $85MM deal.

Even this winter, they made a win-now-ish move by signing veteran closer Mark Melancon to a two-year, $14MM deal. Of course, there are levels of rebuilding, and the Diamondbacks have to field a full roster just like any other team. Signing Melancon could just as easily be the acquisition of a future trade piece as it is a sign that the front office thinks they can win the NL West this season. Teams around the league have definitely called to inquire about the availability of Ketel Marte, but they’ve thus far been rebuffed–another sign that Arizona might be leaning towards a soft bid for a wild card spot.

Ahmed, however, has never been a high-impact player, and the Diamondbacks can almost certainly find another solution, should they decide to move him. He’s never posted higher than a 96 wRC+, and his career mark sits at 74 wRC+. His 2.3 fWAR season in 2019 is the only time he’s topped 2.o fWAR over a full season (though he was on pace to surpass that mark in 2020, had there been a full season).

Frankly, Ahmed is pretty close to being a prototypical second-division starter, and that’s not the type of guy that teams really look to trade for in the offseason. What makes Ahmed appealing, however, is that he does have an elite skill: defense. Certain teams have grown adept at maximizing flawed players with elite skills, and there’s no reason to think that the right organization couldn’t maximize Ahmed’s talents in a similar fashion.

Bottom line: Ahmed is a veteran who should probably transition to a part-time role, but that might be something he’s willing to do if he’s on a contender. The Diamondbacks don’t need a win-now veteran like Ahmed, and they should probably be using that spot to audition young players who have a chance to stick long-term. That’s the calculus for a trade.

So who might be interested in Ahmed? The right team would be a competitive club looking to make the playoffs who has a solution up the middle, but not a surefire All-Star in that spot. Ahmed would be a perfect third middle infielder to compliment a lefty bat or a bat-first option up the middle. Some options:

The Astros could use Ahmed to ease Jeremy Pena into regular playing time. He would essentially be the glove-first version of Aledmys Diaz. They probably have enough pop to slide another glove-first body into the bottom of the lineup, though this probably only works if one of their young centerfielders proves a genuine offensive weapon, as they’re already giving one lineup spot to a glove-only vet in Martin Maldonado.

The Cubs might take a flyer on Ahmed to bolster the young and injury-prone up-the-middle duo of Nico Hoerner and Nick Madrigal. Both young infielders are natural second baseman, and both are coming off injury-ravaged seasons. Ahmed would find playing time as Hoerner gets moved around the diamond, and he could serve as insurance should one of the pair end up back in the trainer’s room.

If the Yankees don’t pony up for one of the top free agents, Ahmed would nicely protect the offensive asset that is Gleyber Torres by allowing their young slugger to mostly stay at the keystone. The plan to convert 30-year-old Gio Urshela to a full-time shortstop has some legs after a 24-start tryout in 2021 (-1 DRS, -0.2 UZR), but it would be a lot to expect him to handle the full load. Ahmed would instantly become the best defender in an offensively potent Yankee infield, and they could find ways to maximize his glovework and minimize trips to the dish.

The Phillies really need more offense, but so long as Didi Gregorius is their starting shortstop, there would be a place for Ahmed. After a 68 wRC+ season from Gregorius, the Phils might just as soon improve their infield defense – which also needs work.

Given the stars that have been on the free-agent market this winter, and the stars that might be on the market next year (Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts), Ahmed represents a decidedly milquetoast solution to a premier position. But he’s not a solution on his own. He’s a capable veteran who can absolutely help defensively if fit into a bench role on the right club. There’s a team out there that can use Ahmed to help them win games and reach the postseason. Unfortunately, the Diamondbacks probably aren’t that team.

NPB’s Yokohama DeNA BayStars Re-Sign Michael Peoples

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The Yokohama DeNA BayStars have re-signed right-hander Michael Peoples to a new contract for the 2022 season, the team announced.  This will be Peoples’ third season pitching with the BayStars.

Originally a 14th-round pick in the 2012 draft, Peoples posted a 4.16 ERA and a 17.3% strikeout rate over eight seasons and 779 2/3 innings in Cleveland’s farm system.  Working primarily (126 of 166 games) as a starter, Peoples saw action at the Triple-A level over the last four of his seasons in affiliated ball, but never got the call to the majors.  Injuries played a role, as Peoples was limited to only 133 1/3 total innings in 2017-18 and kept him from a full Triple-A season until 2019.

Over his first two seasons in Japan, Peoples spent time with both the BayStars’ NPB team and its minor league affiliate.  The 30-year-old righty has a 4.55 ERA over 85 innings with Yokohama.  Tyler Austin, Edwin Escobar, Fernando Romero, and Neftali Soto are some of the former MLB players joining Peoples as the non-Japanese contingent in the BayStars’ spring camp.

NL Notes: Wieck, Gomes, Dodgers, Phillies

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Brad Wieck has been limited to 59 2/3 innings over his four big league seasons, as the Cubs left-hander has been hampered by a series of concerning health problems.  After being treated for testicular cancer in 2019, Wieck has faced heart issues in each of the last two years — a cardiac ablation in 2020, and then surgery last year to address an atrial fibrillation.  “I’ve had to deal with a lot in my career, but it’s one more thing that’s made me who I am,” Wieck told Mark Gonzales of The Daily Herald.  “I take pride in what’s made me, and all I can do is continue to work.”

The good news is that Wieck was cleared for baseball activity, and said “as of now, I feel great” as he ramps up for the 2022 season with a series of bullpen sessions.  Despite a 14.1% walk rate last season, Wieck didn’t allow a single earned run over 17 innings of work, and the southpaw has an impressive 35.9% strikeout rate over his brief MLB career.  In a Cubs bullpen that is lacking in surefire options, Wieck certainly looks like a candidate to win a job, and perhaps serve as the Cubs’ top left-handed reliever.

More from around the National League….

  • Multiple teams have approached Brandon Gomes with interview requests over his five years with the Dodgers, but Gomes consistently turned down those other opportunities to remain in Los Angeles.  Speaking with Jack Harris of The L.A. Times and other reporters, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman noted that Gomes was being sought after for several different roles, and “there aren’t a lot of people that you can say that about, that really are qualified to do so many different things.”  This versatility will continue to apply to Gomes’ new position as the Dodgers’ general manager, as Friedman said that Gomes’ specific day-to-day duties will evolve and “we’ll figure out what makes the most sense at any given time.”
  • “Given their roster construction, no team wants the designated hitter in the National League in 2022 as much as the Phillies,” NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Corey Seidman writes.  The Phillies aren’t a strong defensive team, and they have several veterans who battled injuries in 2021 and could benefit from the partial off-day provided by a DH spot.  However, the universal DH might also lessen the chances of a reunion between the Phils and Brad Miller, as Miller will have even more job opportunities open to him in free agency should the 14 other NL teams all have need for extra position player depth.

CPBL’s Rakuten Monkeys Re-Sign Dylan Covey, Ryan Bollinger

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Last month, the Rakuten Monkeys of the Chinese Professional Baseball League announced that right-hander Dylan Covey and left-hander Ryan Bollinger had signed new contracts with the team for the 2022 season.  (Hat tip to CPBL Stats.)  Both pitchers will be entering their second season with the Monkeys, and for Bollinger, 2022 will be his fourth year of CPBL action.

Covey posted a 6.57 ERA over 264 1/3 innings with the White Sox and Red Sox from 2017-20, officially beginning his MLB career after Chicago selected him away from the A’s in the 2016 Rule 5 Draft.  The righty’s grounder-heavy arsenal didn’t translate well against Major League batters, as Covey had only a 15.4% career strikeout rate, and the long ball (18.4% home run rate) also plagued him.

While that strikeout rate only marginally improved in Covey’s first CPBL season, the overall numbers were much better, as he posted a 4.01 ERA over 58 1/3 innings with the Monkeys.  As noted by CPBL Stats, Covey joined the Taoyuan-based team in midseason and got off to a slow start, but posted a minuscule 0.58 ERA over his final five outings of the season.

Though Bollinger has been pitching in the CPBL for three seasons, he has only seen action in two of those years, as foot injuries kept him from appearing in even a single game in 2020.  Moving from the Fubon Guardians to the Monkeys last year, Bollinger had a nice rebound, posting a 2.80 ERA and 24.73% strikeout rate over 106 innings for the Rakuten squad.

Bollinger (who turns 31 in February) was a 47th-round pick for the Phillies back in 2009, drafted as a first baseman but quickly transitioning to pitching.  He never actually played in Philadelphia’s farm system, as Bollinger moved onto a well-traveled pro career that has included stops with several independent teams, the Australian Baseball League, and the CPBL.  The southpaw pitched in the affiliated minors with the White Sox from 2011-13 and with the Yankees in 2018, plus he signed a minor league deal with the Padres in the 2018-19 offseason but was released at the end of Spring Training.

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