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Offseason In Review: Washington Nationals

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In conjunction with this review, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk will be holding a Nationals-centric live chat later today to further discuss the team’s offseason.  Click here to submit questions in advance.

With a focus on inexpensive, short-term veteran contracts this offseason, the Nationals are still aiming for the future as the team continues its rebuild.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: approximately $16.25MM
Total spending: approximately $23.25MM

Option Decisions

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • Victor Robles, OF: One year, $2.325MM (Nationals hold $3.3MM club option for 2024; if option is declined, Nats still hold arbitration control over Robles for 2024)

Notable Losses

Ted Lerner, the Nationals’ first official owner after its move to Washington, passed away in February at age 97.  Though Mark Lerner (Ted’s son) has been in control of the franchise since 2018, the sad news of the Lerner family patriarch’s passing seemed to represent something of a symbolic end of an era for the Nationals as ownership questions continue to circle the organization.  It has been almost a year since the Lerner family started to explore the possibility of selling the ballclub, yet even though Ted Leonsis had seemingly emerged as the favorite, it remains to be seen if Leonsis or anyone will up finalizing a deal due to the still-unsettled dispute between the Nationals and Orioles over MASN broadcast rights.

The uncertainty at the ownership level is matched in the front office and in the dugout, since president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo and manager Davey Martinez are only under contract through the 2023 season.  And, as the Nationals enter the second full season of an all-out rebuild, it remains to seen if any of the club’s current young talents will break out and be part of the proverbial “next contending Nats team.”

To this end, Washington will give CJ Abrams, Luis Garcia, and Keibert Ruiz full runs as everyday players this season.  Lane Thomas, Alex Call, and Victor Robles are a bit older than those youngsters and Call was a rookie himself in 2022, but the three outfielders will get another opportunity to be lineup regulars.  (For Robles, this may be something of a last chance after three underwhelming years at the plate, though Robles had an excellent defensive season in 2022.)  The 30-year-old Joey Meneses is the relative greybeard of the group, and yet the Nationals will certainly give Meneses lots of playing time as the team evaluates just exactly what they have in a player coming off an unexpectedly dominant rookie season.

Meneses will be moved around the lineup as a first baseman, DH, and corner outfielder in 2023, and with Meneses providing pop with his right-handed bat, Washington brought a couple of lefty swingers to town as complements.  Corey Dickerson and Dominic Smith also figure to get their share of DH at-bats, with Dickerson also seeing time as a left fielder and Smith likely to play first base, though Smith also has a good deal of experience in left field.

Dickerson has a below-average 97 wRC+ over the last three seasons, hitting .266/.313/.403 in 872 plate appearances since the start of the 2020 season.  Beyond just the league-wide interruptions caused by the pandemic and the lockout in that time period, Dickerson also had to deal with injuries and some personal tragedy, so the veteran is certainly hoping to focus solely on baseball as he enters his age-34 season.  Washington is likely to use Dickerson almost exclusively against right-handed pitching, given how his numbers and playing time against southpaws have diminished in recent years.

In Smith, the Nationals hope they’ve found a bounce-back candidate who might be particularly motivated to produce for another NL East team.  Smith’s decade in the Mets organization was marked by a lot of tumult, as he faced trade rumors, questions about his conditioning, reduced playing time, defensive struggles as a left fielder (a position change forced by Pete Alonso’s emergence as the Mets’ next star first baseman), and finally a non-tender last November.

Still, Smith also delivered some production at the MLB level, with an impressive .299/.366/.571 slash line over 396 PA during the 2019-20 seasons.  Away from the New York drama and into regular playing time with a rebuilding team out of the spotlight, perhaps Smith can rebound with a change of scenery.  D.C. isn’t the only team that shares this belief, as the Royals, Rays, Cubs, and Padres all reportedly had some level of interest before he finally signed with Washington.

Ex-star prospects like Smith were a target area for Rizzo this winter, as the Nationals also added such former top-100 names as Michael Chavis, Franklin Barreto, and Anthony Banda on minor league contracts, while Jeter Downs was claimed off waivers from the Red Sox.  Getting a late-bloomer breakout from any of these players would count as a big win for the Nats’ rebuild, and there’s no real risk involved for Washington in taking a look at these players for minimal acquisition costs.

Jeimer Candelario is perhaps the only one of the Nationals’ veteran signings who is somewhat blocking one of the District’s young talents, yet Carter Kieboom is just starting to work as a DH in Spring Training as he continues to recover from the Tommy John surgery that wiped out his entire 2022 season.  With Kieboom’s ability to play third base up in the air, the Nationals moved quickly to sign Candelario soon after he entered the open market in November.

Candelario is another player with some very recent success under his belt, as he hit .278/.356/.458 (125 wRC+) over 832 PA in 2020-21. He led the majors with 42 doubles in 2021.  However, both his slash numbers and most of his Statcast metrics fell off a cliff last season, as Candelario hit only .217/.272/.361 with 13 homers in 467 PA.  Projected for a $7MM salary in his final arbitration year, Candelario was instead non-tendered by a Detroit team looking for a fresh start under new president of baseball ops Scott Harris.

While the Nats certainly needed help all over the diamond, their lineup wasn’t as big of a problem as their rotation in 2022, yet the starting five is another area where the Nationals are counting on the youngsters.  Josiah Gray, Cade Cavalli, and MacKenzie Gore are all penciled in for regular turns in the rotation if healthy, with the Nationals hoping for some breakouts while being prepared to absorb more early-career growing pains from the trio.

Amidst the District’s spate of one-year contracts, Trevor Williams’ two-year, $13MM deal marked the only multi-year commitment of the offseason.  The right-hander has posted some respectable numbers as both a starter and reliever over his seven Major League seasons, primarily working as a swingman over the last two years with the Mets.  This flexibility could allow the Nats to eventually shift Williams to the bullpen if other rotation options solidify themselves, but he’ll work as a starter to begin the 2023 campaign.

Seth Lugo and Jordan Lyles were two other pitchers linked to the Nationals on the offseason rumor mill, and the team also brought back a familiar face in Erasmo Ramirez. but their other forays into the starting market resulted in minor league deals.  Wily Peralta and Chad Kuhl provide further rotation depth or possible swingman usage, depending on what the Nationals get out of the three youngsters, Williams, and the struggling Patrick Corbin, who is looking to recover from three consecutive mediocre seasons.

Unfortunately for Stephen Strasburg, he recently suffered a setback in his recovery from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, and he remains a wild card in the Nats’ plans since it isn’t certain when (or even if) he’ll be able to pitch again.  With only 31 1/3 innings on Strasburg’s record since the start of the 2020 season, it would count as progress just to get the former All-Star back onto the mound at any point this year.

Erasmo Ramirez is another pitcher with swingman ability, though Washington used him almost exclusively as a reliever in 2022 (with two “starts” that were essentially opener outings).  After signing a minor league deal last winter, Ramirez ended up as a nice bargain for the Nationals, as he delivered a 2.92 ERA and an elite 4.0% walk rate over 86 1/3 innings.  That performance earned him a guaranteed $1MM big league contract to return to D.C., and Ramirez is likely to again be deployed in a long relief role.

Ramirez joins another familiar face in Sean Doolittle, who also re-signed with the Nats on a minor league deal as he continues to work his way back from an internal brace procedure in his left elbow.  For a team that usually has something of a revolving door in the bullpen, Washington was relatively quiet on the relief pitching front this offseason, though Thad Ward (the first overall pick of the Rule 5 draft) and minor league signee Alex Colome represent some interesting additions.

Colome has been solid to excellent for most of his decade in the big leagues, apart from a rough 5.74 ERA over 47 innings with the Rockies last season.  A 4.46 SIERA and a .333 BABIP provide some indication that Colome was at least a little unlucky, and a high BABIP is particularly harmful to a pitcher with a hefty 55.6% grounder rate.  While Colome’s home/away splits were pretty equally mediocre last season, getting out of Coors Field might provide some help for the 34-year-old.

As per usual for any rebuilding team, any of these short-term new arrivals might find themselves on other rosters by the trade deadline.  Williams and Smith (via contract and arbitration) are both controlled through 2024, yet that might not be a big impediment if they’re playing well enough for another team to make a tempting trade offer.

If Washington’s plan for the trade deadline seems pretty set, the organization can only hope that it will have more clarity on the whole by the summer — whether that translates to the futures of Rizzo and Martinez, progress on a possible sale to a new owner, or just some simple on-field progress in the rebuild.  Given both the holes on the roster and the overall strength of the NL East, the Nationals will be hard-pressed to improve much on their 55-107 record from a year ago, and even avoiding a 100-loss campaign might count as a minor victory.

How would you grade the Nationals’ offseason? (poll link for app users)

The Guardians’ Former Rule 5 Breakout Reliever

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The Guardians surprised a number of onlookers with their run to an AL Central title last season. Among the reasons for that success: a bullpen that was one of the league’s most effective. Cleveland relievers finished fifth in ERA (3.05), sixth in strikeout percentage (26.4%) and fourth in ground-ball rate (46.4%).

Some of that excellent rate production was a byproduct of a strong rotation that consistently worked deeper into games than most. Cleveland relievers finished just 26th in innings pitched. A reliable starting staff no doubt took some of the pressure off manager Terry Francona and the top late-game weapons at his disposal.

That’s not to take anything away from the coaching staff or the relievers overall, however. Cleveland had eight relievers who threw 35+ innings last season; seven of them finished with an ERA of 3.25 or better. Five allowed fewer than three earned runs per nine innings, with the bulk of that group consisting of generally lower-profile hurlers who were acquired without much fanfare.

That’s perhaps best personified by 27-year-old righty Trevor Stephan, who broke out with an All-Star caliber showing in his second big league season. The 6’5″ hurler pitched in 66 games and tallied 63 2/3 innings. He posted a 2.69 ERA while striking out an excellent 30.7% of opposing hitters with a solid 48.1% ground-ball rate. Stephan picked up swinging strikes on 16.2% of his total offerings, a top 25 rate among relievers with 30+ innings.

There was very little to nitpick in Stephan’s performance. He missed bats, kept the ball on the ground when he did surrender contact, and limited walks to a tiny 6.7% clip. Stephan overwhelmed right-handed opponents, surrendering just a .207/.263/.293 line in 153 plate appearances. Lefty batters hit .280 against him but without significant impact, reaching base at a .348 clip while slugging .380. Stephan mixes three pitches in a power arsenal, backing up a 96-97 MPH fastball with a wipeout splitter and a quality slider.

While that production didn’t come entirely out of nowhere, it was a huge development for a pitcher who could have found himself on the roster bubble not that long ago. Originally selected in the third round of the 2017 draft by the Yankees, the University of Arkansas product spent four years in the New York farm system but didn’t secure a 40-man roster spot. He’d posted fine but unexceptional numbers as a starting pitcher between High-A and Double-A in 2019. Like every other minor leaguer, he wasn’t able to log any game action in 2020.

The Yankees opted not to protect him from the Rule 5 draft during the 2020-21 offseason. Cleveland nabbed him with the 24th selection and kept him on the MLB roster the entire following year. Stephan had an inconsistent rookie year working mostly in low-leverage innings. He posted a 4.41 ERA through 63 1/3 frames, striking out an impressive 26.6% of opponents but surrendering far too many walks and home runs. That changed in 2022, a season in which Stephan dramatically increased the use of his split to great success.

Stephan now looks like a key-high leverage bridge to star closer Emmanuel Clase. He joins hard-throwing James Karinchak as the top righty Cleveland setup arms heading into 2023. Southpaw Sam Hentges — a former fourth-round pick who had a breakout ’22 season of his own — would have a key role if healthy, though he’s battling a shoulder issue with an uncertain recovery timetable.

Controllable through 2026 and not eligible for arbitration until next offseason, Stephan would be an incredibly valuable piece for the foreseeable future if he’s able to replicate most of last year’s success. He already looks like one of the better Rule 5 selections in recent memory, posting the caliber of season rarely seen from players available via that process. The 2020 Rule 5 draft generally turned out far better than most, with the biggest successes coming at the Yankees’ expense. In addition to Stephan, New York lost right-hander Garrett Whitlock to their archrivals in Boston that year.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Dodgers Weighing Depth Possibilities In Response To Gavin Lux Injury

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The Dodgers were dealt a significant blow to their position player group this week. Shortstop Gavin Lux tore his ACL in exhibition play and will miss the entire season. That pushes veteran Miguel Rojas from his expected utility capacity into a regular shortstop role and thins out the overall depth behind Miguel Vargas and Max Muncy at second and third base, respectively.

President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman chatted with reporters this afternoon and left open the possibility the club could go outside the organization to bolster their position player group (link via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). The L.A. baseball ops leader didn’t hint at any urgency to make a move but implied they could look into ways to fortify the offensive group.

“Depth is always something that we talk about,” Friedman told reporters. “It was a big driver for us to go out and get Miguel Rojas and we feel like between him and (Chris Taylor) that we’re in a good spot. … So for us, if we are going to add from the outside it’s going to be something that fits us differently or is a more impactful player in our mind.”

Friedman noted the club wasn’t limiting themselves solely to exploring the market for shortstop-capable players. That’s tied to Taylor’s versatility, in particular, as he’s capable of lining up essentially anywhere on the diamond. Acquiring a corner outfielder, for instance, could indirectly add to the infield depth by freeing Taylor up for more work on the dirt.

Plunkett writes that any addition, if one comes to fruition, is likelier to come via trade than free agency. Jurickson Profar is the top unsigned position player, while José Iglesias leads the market of remaining free agent shortstops. Identifying viable trade targets is quite difficult at this stage of the offseason. The trade market has been quiet all winter and particularly frigid in recent weeks. The majority of teams have more or less set the core of their season-opening rosters, and there are only a handful of clubs going into the year without any real designs on being competitive.

“It’s difficult. It’s not the most natural time to make a trade,” Friedman acknowledged. “So we’ll spend more time figuring out what’s possible. We’re not sure at this point and we’re trying to wrap our arms around the various profiles of a player and how it would fit. … It just depends on what’s available. Just because of spring training and the nature of it and typically, it’s a slower trade market and more centered around guys without (minor league) options. Now, there could be players like that who fit as well, or it could be someone internal.”

Baltimore’s Jorge Mateo, Kansas City’s Nicky Lopez, the Cubs’ Nick Madrigal and the Yankees’ Isiah Kiner-Falefa are among the players whose names have been floated as candidates to change uniforms this offseason — either in publicly reported trade discussions or loose speculation based on those clubs’ infield situations. Buster Olney of ESPN reported this morning the Dodgers had checked in with the Yankees regarding Kiner-Falefa early in the offseason. That was before L.A. acquired Rojas, an acquisition that would’ve almost assuredly ruled Kiner-Falefa out of the plans until Lux’s injury.

There’s no indication the Dodgers and Yankees have revisited those discussions in the past few days or have any plans to do so. It stands to reason the Yankees would welcome talks if the Dodgers were to circle back to him as a possible target. Kiner-Falefa is playing this season on a $6MM arbitration salary; he’s on hand as a possible utility option but could lose the starting shortstop job in the Bronx to top prospect Oswald Peraza. New York is reportedly reluctant to exceed the $293MM final luxury tax barrier — which they’d do with any kind of notable acquisition — and Kiner-Falefa is perhaps the most straightforward candidate on the roster for a trade that could free up some spending capacity.

The Dodgers themselves were flirting with the possibility of dipping below a luxury tax tier, in their case the $233MM base threshold. The Rojas acquisition put that to bed, however, and Friedman has subsequently affirmed they have no plans to shed money and get under the CBT marker at this point. That doesn’t provide much insight into how much room they have for further additions, however. Roster Resource currently projects their luxury tax number around $245MM, which puts them approximately $8MM shy of the second penalization tier.

If they don’t go outside the organization, the Dodgers would run with a regular infield of Freddie Freeman, Vargas, Rojas and Muncy across the diamond. Taylor could step in at times but would presumably spend more time in left and center field, while right fielder Mookie Betts could see some action at second base.

The Reds’ Numerous Outfield Possibilities

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The Reds go into the 2023 campaign looking at another evaluation year. Cincinnati is coming off a 100-loss season and didn’t make many immediate upgrades over the winter. It’ll be a non-competitive season, one that sees a number of unproven players look to carve out longer-term roles.

No area of the roster is more wide open than the outfield. Cincinnati has eight outfielders on their 40-man roster. Of that group, only offseason signee Wil Myers has a lengthy big league track record. Myers had some ups and downs as a member of the Padres, showcasing strong power potential at times but undercutting it with lofty strikeout totals at others. Signed to a one-year, $7.5MM deal, he’ll surely receive regular playing time either in the corner outfield or at first base. The franchise will hope he’ll hit well enough to draw some attention from contenders at the trade deadline.

Everyone else in the Cincinnati outfield is hoping to earn a consistent spot in the lineup. It’s a similar group to that of the rebuilding Athletics — one that has a glut of upper level options but very little in the way of established big league production.

Jake Fraley, 27, two minor league options remaining

Fraley is probably the favorite for regular reps among the group of unproven players. Acquired from the Mariners in last spring’s Eugenio Suarez/Jesse Winker deal, Fraley put up an impressive .259/.344/.468 line with 12 home runs over his first 247 plate appearances as a Red. Most of that work came in the season’s second half, as he lost a good portion of the beginning of the year to right knee issues.

The lefty-swinging Fraley also posted solid offensive marks in a limited role in Seattle the previous year. He carries a .235/.348/.419 line with 21 homers and 16 doubles in 145 games over the past couple seasons. He doesn’t hit the ball especially hard but makes contact at a decent clip and has an extremely patient offensive approach. Fraley has limited experience in center and right field (rating poorly at both stops); he’s gotten solid reviews from public defensive metrics for his left field glovework.

Nick Senzel, 27, three options remaining

A former #2 overall pick, Senzel was a consensus top prospect before reaching the majors in 2019. He hasn’t met those expectations thus far, struggling to a .240/.303/.360 line in 1036 career plate appearances. A natural third baseman, Senzel moved primarily to center field at the MLB level and has gotten middling to well below-average reviews for his glove from various metrics.

Senzel has shown above-average contact skills at the big league level, though he hasn’t made much of a power impact. Despite his early-career struggles, the Reds have maintained throughout the offseason they plan to give him another crack at seizing the center field job. It feels like a make-or-break season, with Senzel now into his arbitration seasons and having performed below replacement level thus far.

The Reds are obviously still hopeful he can take a long-awaited step forward. He’ll first need to get healthy. Senzel underwent surgery to repair a fractured toe over the offseason. Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer wrote this afternoon that he’s begun swinging a bat in simulated games at the team’s spring complex. He has yet to progress to full speed running.

TJ Friedl, 27, two options remaining

Friedl has been one of the more interesting outfielders in the Cincinnati farm system for a few seasons. He got a brief big league look late in 2021 and received his first extended action last season. In 258 plate appearances across 72 games, he hit at a league average clip: .240/.314/.436 with eight home runs, a modest 7.8% walk percentage and a tiny 15.5% strikeout rate.

The left-handed hitter had more resounding success over a similar stretch of time for Triple-A Louisville. Friedl posted a .278/.371/.468 line with eight homers, an 11.6% walk rate and a 19.9% strikeout percentage over 241 trips with the Bats. That mostly aligns with his longstanding prospect reputation. Friedl doesn’t have much power but he has a solid feel for the strike zone and puts the ball in play with regularity. He can play all three outfield positions, though advanced metrics weren’t enthused with his first MLB work on the grass. Friedl has typically been regarded by prospect evaluators as a high-probability fourth/fifth outfielder. The upcoming campaign could be his best opportunity to outperform that expectation.

Will Benson, 24, three options remaining

Benson, acquired from the Guardians last month, has a polar opposite approach from Friedl. He’s also a left-handed batter but boasts huge power upside with a long track record of lofty strikeout totals. A former first-round draftee whose prospect shine had dimmed, Benson put himself back on the map with arguably a career-best season last year.

In 89 games with Cleveland’s top minor league affiliate, he hit .278/.426/.522 with 17 home runs. Benson walked a massive 18.7% clip — par for the course throughout his career — and struck out in an average 22.7% of his trips. It was the first time he’d posted a strikeout rate below 28% at any stop and only his second season fanning in fewer than 30% of his PA’s. Benson didn’t produce in a 28-game MLB cameo and was still buried on Cleveland’s outfield depth chart, but his step forward intrigued the Reds enough to take a look. He’s best suited for right field and can cover center on occasion.

Nick Solak, 28, one option remaining

Another one-time top prospect, Solak has had some inconsistent performances the past few years with the Rangers. He had an excellent 33-game debut in 2019. Since the start of 2020, however, the righty-swinging Solak carries a modest .246/.317/.354 line in 839 MLB plate appearances. Longstanding concerns about his defense at second base eventually pushed him to left field, where he has gotten subpar grades from public statistics.

To his credit, Solak hasn’t allowed his MLB inconsistency to bleed into his performance in the minor leagues. Optioned to Triple-A by Texas last season, he put up an impressive .278/.371/.489 mark with 10 longballs, an 11.6% walk rate and a 19.7% strikeout percentage in 57 contests. The Rangers never seemed to trust him enough to give him an extended look despite woeful MLB production from their left fielders, though. Texas dealt him to Cincinnati for cash immediately after the season ended.

Michael Siani, 23, three options remaining

A former fourth-round pick, Siani has spent the past few seasons ranked among the middle tiers of the Cincinnati farm system. Praised for his speed and defensive acumen in center field, he went 49 for 61 as a basestealer over 121 Double-A games last year. His overall .252/.351/.404 line with 12 home runs at that level was solid if unexceptional for a 22-year-old. Siani earned cups of coffee in both Louisville and Cincinnati towards the end of the season.

It stands to reason Cincinnati will start Siani back in Triple-A given his lack of experience there. Baseball America ranked him the organization’s #19 prospect this winter, projecting him as a glove-first fourth outfielder.

Stuart Fairchild, 26, one option remaining

A former Cincinnati second-round pick, Fairchild was dealt to the Diamondbacks at the 2020 trade deadline. He made his MLB debut with Arizona the following season, getting into 12 games. The Wake Forest product bounced around via minor trade and waivers last year, playing in four different organizations. He finished the season back with his original club when the Reds nabbed him off waivers from the Giants in June.

Fairchild played in 38 games for Cincinnati, connecting on five home runs in 99 trips. He struck out 29 times while drawing only eight walks but showed intriguing power. That was also the case in Triple-A, where he combined for a .258/.353/.490 line in 53 contests despite the constant uniform changes. He’s capable of playing all three outfield positions.

Chad Pinder, 30, not on 40-man roster

Pinder, a longtime member of the Athletics, signed a non-roster pact with a major league Spring Training invitation this winter. He’s coming off a .235/.263/.385 showing in 111 games for Oakland. The right-handed hitting Pinder has some power and a decent track record of hitting lefty pitching. He’s versatile enough to cover anywhere on the infield in addition to his corner outfield work. Pinder seems to have a strong chance at securing a bench role given that flexibility and Cincinnati’s fairly left-handed outfield mix. As a major league free agent who signed a minor league contract, he’ll have an automatic opt-out opportunity five days before the start of the regular season if he’s not added to the MLB roster.

Overall

Aside from Pinder, former highly-regarded prospect Allan Cerda and KBO veteran Henry Ramos are also in camp on non-roster contracts. Neither looks to have a strong chance at cracking the Opening Day roster considering the number of alternative outfield options for the front office and coaching staff to evaluate.

Myers is the only member of the current group who can’t be sent to the minor leagues, although Pinder couldn’t be optioned if he cracks the MLB roster. That could set the stage for plenty of shuffling over the next six months. The organization is surely hoping two or three players from the group will cement themselves as everyday options based on their 2023 production, lending some clarity to the longer-term mix.

Rockies Likely To Move Ryan McMahon To Second Base

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In the wake of a potentially season-ending shoulder injury to second baseman Brendan Rodgers, Rockies general manager Bill Schmidt tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post that his team’s likeliest course of action will be to slide third baseman Ryan McMahon over to second base (Twitter link). The current plan would be to leave Kris Bryant in left field and evaluate both Elehuris Montero and Nolan Jones at third base over the course of spring training, though Sherman notes that Schmidt did not entirely rule out a trade of some degree.

The 28-year-old McMahon is no stranger to second base, having logged more than 1600 big league innings at the position. As recently as 2021, McMahon logged 368 innings there and, despite that small sample, piled up impressive totals in Defensive Runs Saved (9), Ultimate Zone Rating (2.9) and Defensive Runs Saved (2). There’s little doubt that McMahon can handle the position from a defensive standpoint, but he also grades out as one of the sport’s top defenders at third base; moving him off that position comes with a price.

It’s a sub-optimal arrangement all around for the Rox, as is always the case in the wake of a major injury. Rodgers won a Gold Glove for his work at second base in 2022, and McMahon might well have done the same were it not for the perennial excellence of his former teammate, Nolan Arenado. McMahon has been a Gold Glove finalist in each of the past two seasons, logging a hefty 23 DRS and 20 OAA in that time (despite some occasional work at second base along the way). Whatever shape the infield takes, the overall defense is going to be weaker without McMahon at the hot corner and Rodgers at second base.

Montero, 24, got his first big league audition with the Rockies in 2022. The former top prospect — acquired in the trade that sent Arenado to St. Louis — struggled to a .233/.270/.432 slash with a huge 32.4% strikeout rate against a 4.3% walk rate in 185 plate appearances, however. Scouting reports have generally pegged him as a below-average defender at third base with enough power to potentially still carve out a regular role as a corner infielder.

His shaky big league debut notwithstanding, Montero tattooed Triple-A pitching, raking at a .310/.392/.541 clip with vastly superior walk and strikeout rates of 9.1% and 21.2%, respectively. He connected on 21 homers in just 482 plate appearances between Triple-A and the big leagues, demonstrating his power potential.

Jones is also 24 and also a former top-100 prospect. The Rockies acquired him from the Guardians over the winter, likely with the initial expectation that the infielder-turned-outfielder could factor into the corner mix to some extent at Coors Field. The injury to Rodgers and subsequent opening at third base gives Jones a chance to get a look at his natural and most oft-played position, however. He’s logged 3261 professional innings at third base.

Like Montero, Jones made his MLB debut in 2022 but turned in below-average offense: a .244/.309/.372 slash in 94 plate appearances with the Guardians. He didn’t post quite as gaudy numbers as Montero in Triple-A, but Jones’ .276/.368/.463 slash with Cleveland’s top affiliate was impressive nevertheless.

Between the two former top prospects, Montero could have the leg up when it comes to making the Opening Day roster, if only because he cannot be freely sent to Triple-A. Montero is out of minor league options, whereas Jones still has one option year remaining. The two do form a natural platoon. Montero is a right-handed bat, while Jones bats left-handed. As such, there’s potentially room for both on the Opening Day roster if they turn heads in camp — and, crucially, if the Rockies don’t pursue a trade to address either second base or third base.

As far as the potential trade market is concerned, there are any number of speculative alleys the Rockies could explore. Each of the Orioles (Jorge Mateo, Ramon Urias), A’s (Tony Kemp), Red Sox (Bobby Dalbec), Yankees (Isiah Kiner-Falefa) and Royals (Nicky Lopez, Hunter Dozier) have infielders who’ve at least been loosely mentioned on the rumor circuit this offseason.

Of course, it’s not clear that all of those names are definitive upgrades over Colorado’s in-house options, and the stronger likelihood is that the Rox just fill the need from within. Both Montero and Jones are controllable for six more seasons, after all, and while these surely aren’t the circumstances under which the team hoped to be able to evaluate the pair at the MLB level, the newfound opportunity to do so at least offers some potential good to come from an otherwise unfortunate injury to Rodgers.

Pirates Sign Domingo Leyba To Minor League Deal

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The Pirates have signed infielder Domingo Leyba to a minor league contract, tweets John Dreker of PiratesProspects.com. Leyba is already with the club at their spring training facility.

Leyba, 27, has appeared in parts of two big league seasons but tallied only 126 plate appearances, during which time he’s posted an unsightly .152/.238/.223 batting line. While that’s certainly not the most appealing line (to put it mildly), it’s a relatively small sample of plate appearances that has built up over sporadic playing time between the D-backs and Orioles. The switch-hitter has spent parts of three seasons in Triple-A, where he’s a career .296/.342/.525 hitter in 755 trips to the plate.

Defensively, Leyba has logged substantial time at both shortstop (3615 innings) and second base (3247 innings) in his professional career. He’s also spent more than 700 innings at the hot corner and made brief appearances at first base and in left field. He’s not a burner on the basepaths by any means, but he did swipe a dozen bags in the minors with the Padres last season while only being thrown out one time.

Leyba was once a fairly well-regarded prospect, ranking as the No. 3 prospect in the Diamondbacks’ system back in 2017, per Baseball America. He’s obviously yet to pan out as hoped, but he’s still just 27 years of age and has a solid track record in the upper minors. It’s little more than a depth signing for the Pirates, who have Ke’Bryan Hayes at third base, Oneil Cruz at shortstop and will hope for one of Rodolfo Castro, Ji Hwan Bae or prospect Nick Gonzales to eventually seize second base this season. Leyba can provide some insurance at all three spots, and given his Triple-A track record and defensive versatility, he could eventually pop up on the Pirates’ bench later this season.

NL West Notes: Rockies, Conforto, Padres

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As the Rockies brace for potentially unwelcome news on both second baseman Brendan Rodgers and lefty Lucas Gilbreath, they’re perhaps already giving fans a preview of one contingency plan. With Rodgers out indefinitely and possibly facing season-ending surgery, Colorado is deploying third baseman Ryan McMahon at second base today and giving former top prospect Elehuris Montero the start at third base. This is obviously just one permutation that the lineup could take if Rodgers is indeed lost for the season, as there are alternate options at both third base (Kris Bryant, Nolan Jones) and at second base (Alan Trejo). Non-roster invitee Harold Castro can play both spots (though defensive metrics view his glovework at both positions in a negative light). Rodgers was going for a second opinion on his shoulder yesterday after reportedly receiving an initial recommendation of surgery. The Rox should have further updates on his status before long.

More from the division…

  • Turning to the Rockies’ pitching staff, they’re facing a somewhat uncertain rotation picture to begin the season with righty Antonio Senzatela still rehabbing from last year’s torn ACL. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post writes in his latest mailbag that the target for Senzatela’s return is still sometime in May — as was reported last month — but Saunders provides a less-optimistic outlook on southpaw Ryan Rolison, who had shoulder surgery last June. Rolison is still “weeks away” from pitching in a game setting, which likely takes him out of the running to make starts for the club early in the 2023 season. Righty Peter Lambert, however, is healthy and has already made one Cactus League appearance after a generally lost pair of seasons in 2021-22. Lambert underwent Tommy John surgery in 2020, pitched just 18 innings in 2021 after recovering, and was limited to only 8 2/3 innings in 2022 due to a forearm injury and renewed elbow troubles. If he’s healthy, the former No. 44 overall draft pick (2015) could factor into the Colorado rotation early, alongside German Marquez, Kyle Freeland, Jose Urena and (likely) Austin Gomber.
  • New Giants outfielder Michael Conforto has been limited to DH work so far, but he expects him to be full-go by Opening Day, writes Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Conforto tells Heyman that his surgically repaired shoulder is back to full strength, but he’s still working to regain the accuracy on his throws from the outfield. More notably, perhaps, Heyman reports that the official diagnosis of the previously nebulous injury that prompted Conforto to undergo surgery and miss the 2022 campaign was a “capsule fracture” in his right shoulder. Conforto notably suffered a dislocation and capsule tear in his left shoulder back in 2017 as well. He returned from that injury and went on to hit .261/.365/.478 over a three-year span (2018-20) before stumbling to a .232/.344/.384 output in 2021, his last healthy season.
  • Veteran lefty Cole Hamels, angling for an age-39 comeback with his hometown Padres, is slated to throw his third bullpen session of spring training today, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The goal is for roughly 35 pitches. Hamels and the Padres are aiming for the lefty to be built up to around 45 pitches before he begins facing live hitters, so there’ll likely be one more ’pen session in the coming days before he takes that step. Meanwhile, veteran outfielder Adam Engel has been slowed by a calf strain and has yet to get into spring games. Engel, 31, figures to be San Diego’s fourth outfielder if he’s healthy enough to take the field come Opening Day. Manager Bob Melvin indicated last week that Engel wouldn’t play in the first week of spring games, but the team hasn’t provided a formal update on his status since.

Offseason In Review: Texas Rangers

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In conjunction with this entry in our annual Offseason in Review series, MLBTR will be conducting a Rangers-centric chat today at 11am. You can submit a question in advance, and be sure to check back to participate live.

The Rangers didn’t replicate last year’s half-billion dollar spending bonanza, but they sure didn’t let up in terms of aggression during Chris Young’s first offseason as the lead decision-maker for baseball operations.

Major League Signings

2023 spend: $82.15MM
Total spend: $265.65MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Extensions

  • None (yet)

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

For the first time in nearly 20 years, the Rangers’ offseason was overseen by a baseball operations leader other than Jon Daniels. Ownership dismissed Daniels, who’d been one of MLB’s longest-tenured general managers/presidents of baseball operations, after 17 years on the job. The reins were handed to former big league pitcher Chris Young, who’s spent the past few seasons under Daniels and now has autonomy for the first time in his still-fledgling executive career.

One of Young’s first tasks was to replace manager Chris Woodward, whom Daniels had fired just days prior to his own dismissal, and it proved to be one of the highest-profile acquisitions of the winter for the Rangers. After trending toward less-experienced managers with their last two hires — both Woodward and Jeff Banister were first-time big league skippers in Texas — the Rangers instead hired one of the most experienced and well-respected managers in the game.

Bruce Bochy announced prior to the 2019 season that he planned to retire the following winter, although a year later he’d describe the situation differently, suggesting he was just “pressing the pause button” on his career and taking some time with his family. Indeed, Bochy’s managerial days appear far from over; he’s now the manager in Texas after inking a three-year deal to guide the Rangers out of what looks to be a short-lived rebuilding effort.

With a new dugout leader and revamped coaching staff in place, Young, a veteran of 13 big league seasons on the mound, set to work in building out the roster. While the 2021-22 offseason was focused largely on acquiring bats in the form of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, the 2022-23 offseason looked more like one engineered by a former big league hurler. Recent top picks like Owen White, Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker and Cole Winn are looming, but the Rangers needed instant augmentation for a rotation that ranked 25th in the Majors in ERA during the 2022 season.

And, immediate augmentation they got. Young and his staff effectively acquired an entire rotation’s worth of veteran arms on deals ranging from one to five years in length, which should provide present-day stability while also creating organic opportunities for that burgeoning crop of minor league pitching talent to force its way onto the roster. First and foremost, the Rangers made a straightforward call to offer Martin Perez a $19.65MM qualifying offer after he posted a breakout 2.89 ERA in a team-high 196 1/3 frames. A year ago, a QO for Perez would’ve seemed unthinkable, but Perez earned it with his performance last season, and it’s a sensible short-term bet on a durable lefty who made clear he hoped to stay in Texas following last winter’s reunion.

That, however, only maintained the status quo. Further help was needed, and the Rangers wasted little time in securing it. A five-year, $185MM deal for two-time Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom shattered even the most bullish expectations; there was thought that deGrom could top Max Scherzer’s record $43.33MM annual value on a three-year deal or perhaps even on a four-year deal, but few observers could’ve foreseen a five-year term. The length of the deal perhaps tamped down the AAV a bit, but deGrom’s $37MM AAV was the second-largest for any pitcher in history at the time of the deal and still ranks third, trailing only Scherzer and Justin Verlander, who ostensibly replaced deGrom in Queens when he signed a two-year, $86.6MM pact.

The Rangers are taking pronounced risk with deGrom, who’s pitched just 156 1/3 innings and made 26 total starts over the past two seasons. That’s understandably dropped an injury-prone label on the longtime Mets ace, but it’s worth noting that prior to 2021, deGrom embodied the workhorse mentality. He made all 12 possible starts during the shortened 2020 season and, from 2015-19, averaged 30 starts and 192 1/3 innings per season (not including postseason workload).

When healthy, deGrom is the best pitcher on the planet. He has a 2.05 ERA, 35.5% strikeout rate and 5.1% walk rate over his past 645 1/3 MLB frames, and although his 2021-22 seasons were shortened he’s been even better in that time: 1.90 ERA with a ludicrous 44% strikeout rate against a 3.4% walk rate. The Rangers are placing a massive bet on deGrom’s ability to return to a full season’s workload, and the risk and contract are particularly shocking when considering that he’ll turn 35 in June. That said, deGrom is so talented that he might not even need to pitch a full slate of starts for the Rangers to feel good about the return on their investment.

The other rotation bets made by Texas were similar ceiling plays with substantial injury risk. Right-hander Nathan Eovaldi looked primed for another four-year deal last June, when he was sporting a 3.16 ERA, 25.8% strikeout rate and deGrom-esque 3.6% walk rate through 12 starts and 68 1/3 frames. Back troubles landed him on the injured list, however, and while he returned a month later, Eovaldi worked with diminished velocity before going back on the injured list with a shoulder issue. He returned to toss 9 2/3 innings of one-run ball late in the season, but again, the velocity was down considerably; Eovaldi averaged 96.7 mph on his heater through June 8 but 94.5 mph thereafter.

Nonetheless, Eovaldi’s appeal is clear. He’s the rare hard-thrower who pairs that velocity with elite command; since Opening Day 2020, Clayton Kershaw is the only starting pitcher (min. 150 total innings) with a lower walk rate than Eovaldi. From Opening Day 2020 through June 8 of this past season, Eovaldi boasted a 3.61 ERA, 25.7% strikeout rate and 4.2% walk rate in 299 innings. He’s twice had Tommy John surgery in his career, however, and the aforementioned loss of more than two miles per hour off his heater following back and shoulder injuries is an obvious red flag. Can he regain that lost velo while maintaining his elite command and holding up for a full starter’s workload? Eovaldi has just three seasons of 150-plus innings in his MLB career, but the Rangers were bullish enough on his outlook to surrender a draft pick in order to sign him, as he’d rejected a qualifying offer from Boston. (Texas also surrendered a pick for deGrom; they parted with their second- and third-highest selections in 2023 by making those signings.)

Even higher on the risk-reward spectrum is left-hander Andrew Heaney, who was limited to 72 2/3 innings by shoulder troubles last year but transformed from a tantalizing but homer-prone blend of strikeout-walk intrigue into a legitimate buzzsaw when he was healthy with the Dodgers in 2022. The Dodgers scrapped Heaney’s curveball in favor of a new slider, and opponents were utterly bewildered by the offering.

Heaney fanned a massive 35.5% of opponents against a 6.1% walk rate en route to a 3.10 ERA. He remained homer-prone, but among the 188 pitchers with at least 70 innings thrown in 2022 (relievers and starters alike), no one induced a higher swinging-strike rate than Heaney’s 16.8%. His 39.5% opponents’ chase rate on pitches off the plate trailed only Kevin Gausman (42.7%) and Emmanuel Clase (a superhuman 49.8%).

The Rangers’ new-look rotation is teeming both with upside and with injury risk. However, the risk factor with all these rotation investments wasn’t lost on Texas. The Rangers could surely have found a team interested in acquiring pre-arbitration righties Dane Dunning or Glenn Otto after each posted back-of-the-rotation results in 2022 (4.46 ERA in 153 1/3 innings for Dunning; 4.64 ERA in 135 2/3 innings for Otto). However, Young and his crew held onto both righties — and they also swung a trade to acquire veteran Jake Odorizzi from the Braves. Odorizzi exercised a hearty $12.5MM player option, but the Braves kicked in $10MM to facilitate the swap, leaving the Rangers on the hook for just $2.5MM. For a veteran who’ll likely open in a long relief/sixth starter role, it’s an eminently affordable price to pay (especially considering how solid Odorizzi was in 2022 prior to his trade to Atlanta).

It’s feasible that over the remaining month of spring training or the first few months of the season, other clubs will inquire on the availability of anyone from the Dunning/Otto/Odorizzi trio — especially as other injuries arise on teams with less depth than the Rangers possess. There’s no urgency for Texas to move any member of that trio, though, and the mere fact that an organization that was so pitching-starved in 2022 now has that type of depth is a testament both to the work of the front office and to the commitment of ownership to field a club capable of returning to postseason contention. The Rangers even went so far as to reportedly meet with Carlos Rodon after they’d already signed deGrom, but that match obviously never came to fruition.

Of course, the rotation is just one element of the roster, and it’d be fair to wonder whether the Texas front office put enough emphasis on the rest of the team. The Rangers allowed Matt Moore to depart for a division rival (Angels) after he turned in one of the most effective seasons of any reliever in MLB last year, and they’ve done nothing to concretely replace him. Recognizable names like Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, Dominic Leone, Reyes Moronta and Zack Littell were signed to minor league deals, but none are guaranteed roster spots. Meanwhile, the Rangers are also expected to be without southpaw Brett Martin for most or all of the 2023 season, after he underwent shoulder surgery.

In their defense, the Rangers are hoping to get full seasons out of both Jose Leclerc and Jonathan Hernandez in 2023. Both righties missed substantial time in 2022 while mending from Tommy John surgery performed a year prior. That’s a huge boost to the relief corps, and last year’s quiet breakout from Brock Burke and strong showing from Joe Barlow give Bochy a quality group of arms in the late innings. Still, there was room for at least one more bullpen addition. Perhaps Young & Co. have one more strike up their sleeve and will swoop on a lefty like Zack Britton, Will Smith or Brad Hand — each of whom remains unsigned — but the lack of attention to the bullpen could come back to bite them.

Similar questions abound with regard to the lineup. Semien and Seager form a quality middle infield combo. First baseman Nathaniel Lowe had a breakout showing at the plate. Jonah Heim is an underrated option behind the dish. In the outfield, Adolis Garcia has a questionable approach at the plate but a tooled-up blend of power, speed and defense that’s tough to match. Leody Taveras didn’t hit much in 2022 but can play center field better than most.

Still, that only accounts for two-thirds of the lineup. Top prospect Josh Jung will get an opportunity at third base after shoulder surgery wiped out most of his 2022 season, but he’s yet to prove himself as a big league regular. There was clear room to add a regular in left field, but the Rangers added Robbie Grossman after spring training had opened and will rely on him combining with Brad Miller, Josh Smith, Bubba Thompson, Mark Mathias and perhaps some non-roster invitees (e.g. Clint Frazier, Travis Jankowski, Elier Hernandez) to round out the outfield. At designated hitter, the Rangers seem likely to rotate several members of that left field hodgepodge.

That said, Lowe’s glovework at first makes him a DH candidate, so Texas could’ve added at least one more first base/corner outfield type of bat to deepen the lineup. Given all the money spent on the rotation and all the risk they took on in that regard, it’s a bit puzzling that Texas essentially pulled some punches when addressing the lineup. A platoon with Grossman bashing lefties and one of the Rangers’ many lefty-swinging left field candidates could prove productive, but it’s an underwhelming conclusion to an offseason that featured so many fireworks on the starting pitching front. And, if Jung gets hurt again or looks overmatched at the hot corner, there’s little in the way of veteran depth to help offset the struggles. Miller is an option, but he’s a 33-year-old seeking a rebound on the heels of a poor 2022 showing.

Jung is a big-time prospect, and there are so many bodies in the left field/designated hitter mix that it’s possible this is all much ado about nothing a few months down the line. It’s equally plausible, however, that the Rangers find themselves in the market for some corner help to bolster the lineup this summer, and at that point, the lack of attention to the the lineup would only prove more glaring. This feels like an area where they should’ve placed some greater focus, but it’s admittedly tough to be all that critical of ownership’s spending after they invested $821MM over a period of just two offseasons.

Everyone in the AL West is looking up at the Astros. The Rangers, while improved, aren’t clearly better than the Mariners after Seattle ended a 20-year postseason drought in 2022. The Angels are an improved squad  as well. Even after all their spending dating back to last winter, a playoff berth is not a given for these Rangers.

It’s overwhelmingly clear, though, that this is the most formidable Rangers club we’ve seen in some time, and if they can improbably find themselves in a spot where deGrom, Eovaldi, Heaney and Jon Gray hold up for the bulk of the season alongside the more durable Perez, the Rangers could find themselves in the thick of the postseason race. You can question the risks they took, but this a team that’s clearly aiming to contend right now, and the pieces to do just that are in place — if they can avoid the injured list.

How would you grade the Rangers’ offseason?

The Opener: Cubs, WBC, Offseason In Review

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Today is the trade deadline in the NHL! If you’re a hockey fan who enjoys MLBTR’s content, be sure to check out the folks on our sister site, Pro Hockey Rumors, as well as their Twitter account to get up-to-the-minute coverage of today’s deadline deals. While a flurry of moves is surely happening in the NHL, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Are the Cubs on the verge of acquiring a reliever?

In yesterday’s Opener, we discussed how the left-handed relief market had seemingly gone dormant following the signings of Andrew Chafin and Matt Moore in the run-up to Spring Training. It’s possible that state of affairs is about to change, however, as president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer acknowledged yesterday that the Cubs could add a lefty to pair with Brandon Hughes in their bullpen. The top three relief options on the market at this point are Zack Britton, Brad Hand, and Will Smith, though the Cubs also appear to have some interest in lefty Mike Minor, who’s worked as a starter for the past several seasons.

2. WBC teams begin reporting and working out:

Teams in Pool A and Pool B for the upcoming World Baseball Classic are set to report and begin team workouts over the weekend. The teams in Pool A are Chinese Taipei, Cuba, Panama, Italy, and the Netherlands while the teams in Pool B are China, Korea, Australia, Japan, and the Czech Republic. Kenley Jansen (Netherlands), Xander Bogaerts (Netherlands), Luis Robert (Cuba), Yoan Moncada (Cuba), Vinnie Pasquantino (Italy), Shohei Ohtani (Japan), Yu Darvish (Japan), Lars Nootbaar (Japan), Tommy Edman (Korea), Ha-Seong Kim (Korea) and free agents Jurickson Profar, Andrelton Simmons and Didi Gregorius (all Netherlands) are among the many notable big leaguers who will be participating for the aforementioned clubs. You can check out full rosters at the WBC’s web site.

3. Offseason in Review series continues:

MLBTR’s “Offseason In Review” series is set to continue today as Steve Adams takes a look back at how the offseason went for the Texas Rangers. That entry will run this morning, and Steve will be hosting a Rangers-focused live chat with readers this at 11am CT. You can submit a question in advance if you’re so inclined, and that same link will take you to the chat to participate live or read the transcript after it ends. Our OiR series has already covered the Pirates, Athletics, Tigers, Diamondbacks, and Angels this spring.

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