Archives for October 2024

Rob Manfred Discusses Rays’ Stadium Plans, Timeline

By Nick Deeds | October 27, 2024 at 2:13pm CDT

The Rays’ offseason has so far been dominated by the questions swirling around Tropicana Field after it was badly damaged by Hurricane Milton earlier this month. While the damage has not yet been fully assessed, it seems certain that the club won’t be able to start the season in their home ballpark in 2025 and there remains the possibility that local officials decide not to repair the field at all with a replacement for the Trop planned to be constructed in time for Opening Day 2028.

The unusual situation leaves plenty of questions about the Rays’ short- and mid-term future, even as the club knows its long-term home for 2028 and beyond remains in St. Pete. Potential temporary homes such as Durham, North Carolina and Montreal have already been shot down, and while MLB commissioner Rob Manfred has expressed a preference for the Rays to remain in their current market, local officials in St. Petersburg have cautioned that they’ll be “financially responsible” as they attempt to find an avenue to keep the Rays in the area for the 2025-28 seasons.

Manfred made additional comments about the Rays’ situation to The Athletic’s Evan Drellich recently that for the first time helped to crystalize a timeline for a plan to be put in place. While previous discussions of the club’s future have simply noted that it would likely take several weeks for damage to the Trop to even be fully assessed, Manfred told Drellich that a plan needs to be in place before the end of the year.

“I think by Christmas they gotta have a pretty good plan in place,” Manfred said, as relayed by Drellich. “and there’s a lot to that.”

While two months isn’t necessarily a long time for the club to map out a new plan for where it will play its games in 2025, even that relatively short time frame could have an impact on the Rays’ offseason as the club attempts to court prospective free agents who won’t even know where they’d be playing and living during the season if they were to sign with Tampa. Of course, the Rays have always been more prolific on the trade market than in free agency, and that once again figures to be the case this winter as they explore ways to upgrade their lineup and rumors percolate that they could deal from their rotation this winter. In the event that the lack of a clear home ballpark impacts the club’s recruitment in free agency, it’s possible they’ll need to focus even more on the trade market than usual this offseason.

Turning back to the stadium questions at hand, Manfred suggested the league would be able to “make it work” in a minor league park by adjusting not only the minor league team’s schedule but also potentially even the Rays’ schedule as necessary. Using a minor league park or Spring Training complex could be a way for the club to remain in their current market even if city decides against repairing the Trop. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times notes that the Phillies’ and Yankees’ respective spring training complexes in Clearwater and Tampa seem to be the most likely local options for the Rays to utilize as a temporary home.

Of course, using a minor league facility runs the risk of a clash with the MLBPA over any negative impacts the move might have on players. MLBPA head Tony Clark recently discussed the union’s role in the process, noting that they’re limited in terms of their ability to impact the team’s choice of facility but can ensure that the ballpark’s amenities are up to major league standards and ensure the players are not put into “harm’s way” by the move. One example of how the MLBPA’s role works can be found in the similar situation playing out on the west coast due to the Athletics’ temporary relocation to Sacramento, where the club initially planned to utilize artificial turf but will now continue using grass on the field in 2025 following intervention by the union due to concerns that artificial turf would retain too much heat.

White Sox No Longer Considering Clayton McCullough, A.J. Ellis In Managerial Search

By Nick Deeds | October 27, 2024 at 12:15pm CDT

The White Sox have been on the hunt for their new manager for some time now, but Jesse Rogers of ESPN reported this morning that the club is “getting closer” to making a hire for the position. In particular, Rogers reports two names that are no longer in the running for the job: Dodgers first base coach Clayton McCullough and Padres special assistant A.J. Ellis.

McCullough has been a popular managerial candidate in recent years, coming up in last year’s managerial searched conducted by the Mets, Brewers, and Guardians after previously being a finalist to manage the Royals before the club ultimately selected Matt Quatraro. That widespread interest as McCullough as a candidate has continued this year, as in addition to Chicago’s interest in him he’s also known to have interviewed for the Marlins’ managerial vacancy last week, making him one of just three candidates confirmed to have conducted an interview. Prior to his stint with the Dodgers as first base coach, he previously held the role of minor league field coordinator in L.A. and managed in the minor leagues with the Blue Jays.

Ellis, meanwhile, is a veteran of 11 MLB seasons but was always a bit of an unusual candidate for the job given that he has no managerial or coaching experience in the majors or minors. Since retiring from his playing career, Ellis has served as a special assistant to A.J. Preller’s front office in San Diego with a focus on player development. That development experience could obviously be useful to a club like the White Sox, who lost 121 games this year and seem destined to focus on rebuilding with young, up-and-coming players over the next few seasons. Per Rogers, however, Ellis removed himself from the running due to family considerations.

The pair join Rangers bench coach and offensive coordinator Donnie Ecker on the list of candidates who are no longer in the running for the position. Even without those three in contention for the role, the White Sox still have a number of names rumored to be in the mix for the job. Former Angels manager Phil Nevin and outgoing Marlins manager Skip Schumaker, and veteran manager Buck Showalter have all been floated as names under consideration for the role, but the White Sox are also evidently considering a number of names without previous big league managerial experience. Even with McCullough, Ellis, and Ecker no longer in the mix, Chicago is stil known to have interest in Rangers associate manager Will Venable, and Tigers bench coach George Lombard, Dodgers bench coach Danny Lehman, and Cardinals bench coach Daniel Descalso as they look to turn the page on their disastrous 2024 season with a fresh voice in the dugout.

World Series Notes: Rodon, Flaherty, Cole, Phillips

By Nick Deeds | October 27, 2024 at 10:52am CDT

While the big news from last night’s World Series game was the shoulder injury suffered by Shohei Ohtani, he wasn’t the only player dealing with an ailment during yesterday’s game. As noted by SNY’s Andy Martino last night, Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodon was pitching through a blister on one of his fingers during his start last night, which saw him surrender four runs on six hits as he struck out three in 3 1/3 innings of work.

Blister issues can cause problems with a pitcher’s grip on certain pitches. In the regular season, it’s not uncommon for a pitcher dealing with a blister to be sidelined for a short trip to the injured list until a blister fades and they can resume pitching unimpeded, but Rodon downplayed the seriousness of the issue to Martino last night as he suggested the blister was “not a big deal” and that it won’t impact his availability going forward in the World Series as the Yankees look to fight their way back from an 0-2 deficit. Rodon went on to note that he’s dealt with blister problems before in his career, though this is the first time he’s had one this year.

Overall, Rodon’s sophomore season with the Yankees has been a bit of a mixed bag. The southpaw posted a decent 3.96 ERA (104 ERA+) and struck out 26.5% of opponents while making 32 starts, but he also surrendered a career-high 31 homers and has struggled to this point in the postseason. In 17 2/3 innings of work across four postseason starts, Rodon has struggled to a 5.60 ERA overall, albeit with two strong performances against Cleveland in the ALCS that saw him strike out 15 of the 41 batters he faced. Fans in New York are surely hoping that they’ll get that version of Rodon in Game 6 if the series if the series makes it back to Los Angeles, though for now the team will have to focus on breaking through for their first win of the series.

More notes from the postseason…

Rodon isnt the only starter who’s been dealing with a day-to-day injury in this series, as Dodgers right-hander Jack Flaherty dealt with some hamstring tightness during his start in Game 1 of the World Series, according to manager Dave Roberts. As relayed by the Los Angeles Times’s Mike DiGiovanna, Roberts does not believe the issue to be a serious one. That’s good news for the Dodgers, as the club’s injury-plagued rotation would have few options to replace Flaherty if he were to go down. The right-hander struggled through the division series against the Padres and the championship series against the Mets but looked quite good in his start against the Yankees as he struck out six in 5 1/3 innings of two-run ball. Flaherty is next expected to take the ball in a potential Game 5 on Wednesday, following tomorrow’s start by Walker Buehler and a bullpen game on Tuesday.
Flaherty’s opponent in the series is expected to be Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, and Martino reports that the Yankees currently intend to keep it that way as the club “has not considered” the possibility of starting Cole on short rest in Game 4 of the series if the Yankees are facing elimination. While Martino adds the possibility cannot be completely ruled out, it would be a major departure from the way Cole has been utilized throughout his career. The 34-year-old righty has pitched on short rest only once before in his career, during the 2020 ALDS against the Rays, and while he was effective in that start the Yankees may be less willing to risk his health now that Cole half a decade older and wrapping up a season that saw him miss half the year due to elbow troubles.
Turning back to the Dodgers, right-hander Evan Phillips was left off the club’s World Series roster amid a number of nagging ailments including arm fatigue as well as tightness in his lat, triceps, and biceps. Phillips discussed his situation with DiGiovanna in more detail yesterday, noting that an MRI revealed nerve irritation in his right shoulder. Phillips described the issue as “nothing majorly concerning,” however, and suggested that the decision to leave him off the roster primarily had to do with the fact that the Dodgers wouldn’t be allowed to replace him if he were to more seriously injure himself since he was already injured before the series began. Phillips hasn’t ruled out the possibility he could be added to the roster if another pitcher is injured, though Roberts has previously suggested veteran righty Joe Kelly might be first in line as an injury replacement.

Where Can The Tigers Add Offense This Winter?

By Nick Deeds | October 27, 2024 at 9:15am CDT

The Tigers enjoyed an incredible late-season surge and rode a strong September to not only an 85-win campaign but a playoff berth that brought them within one game of their first ALCS appearance since 2013. With a bona fide ace in Tarik Skubal and a core of talented young hitters like Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, and Parker Meadows in place, it seems clear that the time has come for the club to be aggressive in supplementing that impressive core. To that end, president of baseball operations Scott Harris highlighted two major needs for the club at his end-of-season press conference: a quality right-handed bat and starting pitching help.

For a club that was reluctant to rely on any starting pitchers aside from Skubal in the postseason, finding rotation upgrades this season should be fairly easy. Adding a bat to the lineup, however, could be a bit more complicated given the club’s current construction on offense. The aforementioned trio of Greene, Carpenter, and Meadows are all outfielders, though Carpenter typically finds most of his playing time as a DH rather than on the outfield grass. The club is also deep in other potential outfield options, such as Matt Vierling, Justyn-Henry Malloy, Wenceel Perez, and Akil Baddoo.

While it’s certainly possible to squeeze a big bat such as Tyler O’Neill or Teoscar Hernandez into the lineup in right field, doing so would be a sub-optimal solution given the club’s deep cache of outfield options. Second base seems like an even more unlikely spot for an upgrade given the club’s six-year commitment to Colt Keith at the keystone, which they made last winter prior to his MLB debut. With a 97 wRC+ overall during his rookie campaign thanks to a .285/.338/.437 slash line in the last three months of the season, Keith certainly seems to have earned another crack at regular at-bats at the position.

That leaves few obvious places where the club could upgrade its offense. Perhaps there’s room for an offensive upgrade behind the plate, and rumors that Willson Contreras could be available as the Cardinals look to reduce payroll this winter would make for an on-paper match. As impressive as Contreras’s 133 wRC+ over the past three seasons has been, however, he’s a lackluster defender behind the plate and is headed for his age-33 season next year. Given that, it’s reasonable to wonder if Detroit would prefer to stick with the defensively excellent (if offensively lacking) Jake Rogers and youngster Dillon Dingler behind the plate next year. Dingler struggled in his first taste of big league action this year, but impressed with a 139 wRC+ at Triple-A this year and could improve offensively as he gets his feet wet in the majors.

That leaves the infield as perhaps the most likely place for the Tigers to find the right-handed offensive upgrade they desire, and free agency figures to play host to a handful of intriguing options should they be willing to spend. Willy Adames would certainly be a substantial upgrade to the club’s current shortstop mix, though adding a nine-figure commitment at the position when Javier Baez is still guaranteed $73MM over the next three seasons could be difficult to stomach. Meanwhile, third baseman Alex Bregman stands out as perhaps the other top free agent infielder and could be a somewhat clean fit for the Tigers if they’re uninterested in holding out a position for 2022 first-rounder Jace Jung, who posted a 102 wRC+ in his first taste of big league action this year but struck out at a 30.9% clip.

There is one other position where the club could clearly upgrade in free agency, and it’s one that would be shocking to suggest a few short years ago: first base. 2020 first-overall pick Spencer Torkelson was a consensus top-five prospect in the game prior to his MLB debut, dubbed virtually from the day he was drafted as a can’t-miss hitter with superstar potential. That hasn’t panned out to this point, however, as his offensive contributions through his third season in the majors have actually been below average overall. In 361 career games in the majors, Torkelson has hit just .221/.300/.392 with a wRC+ of 95. Perhaps that would be acceptable for a player with more defensive value, but Torkelson has generally been a below-average defender at one of the least demanding defensive positions on the diamond to this point in his career, leaving him with just 0.8 fWAR accumulated in his big league career to this point.

Of course, that’s not to say that there’s no reason for optimism regarding Torkelson. Perhaps the most significant factor in the slugger’s favor is his age, as he’ll play next year at just 25 years old. By comparison, rookie first baseman Michael Busch delivered a solid inaugural season (119 wRC+, 2.3 fWAR) with the Cubs this year but is currently just two weeks shy of his 27th birthday. Fellow 1-1 pick Adley Rutschman had just 410 big league plate appearances under his belt on his 25th birthday, a mark Torkelson eclipsed in just the second game of his age-23 season.

It’s also worth noting that Torkelson has managed to deliver quality offense over shorter stretches. Just 13 months ago, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald wrote about Torkelson’s mid-season improvements at the plate that allowed him to slash an impressive .242/.322/.500 (124 wRC+) with 20 home runs in his final 80 games of the 2023 campaign. A similar late-season surge occurred when he was called back up in mid-August of this year following a mid-season demotion: over the final six weeks of the season, Torkelson hit .248/.338/.444 with a wRC+ of 125.

That type of offense would make him exactly the sort of impactful right-handed slugger the Tigers would like to add if he was able to sustain it over a full season. That hasn’t come to pass so far, however, and Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press recently suggested things could be trending toward the sides parting ways. Petzold noted that “all signs point” to Torkelson no longer being the long-term solution at first base with a possibility that the club changes gears as soon as this winter.

Should the club decide they’d be better off pursuing a more established, reliable bat in free agency this winter, there’s a handful of options worth considering. Pete Alonso, Christian Walker, and Anthony Santander all have first base experience and could help to transform Detroit’s lineup, though Santander’s experience at first is somewhat limited. Alonso, in particular, seems to be a strong fit for the club’s needs if they decide to move on from Torkelson. He’s never posted a wRC+ below 120 in a season and will be just 30 years old next year, offering a consistency that’s difficult to match, and sensational campaigns in 2019 and 2022 saw him flash the MVP-candidate upside Tigers fans were surely dreaming on when they first drafted Torkelson.

Pivoting towards another player at first base would leave the club with a dilemma regarding what to do with Torkelson. It’s possible that semi-regular at-bats could be found for him even with an addition at first base; Carpenter has typically sat against most left-handed pitchers and played more than half of his games in the outfield this year, leaving room for Torkelson to start find frequent at-bats at DH, including starts against virtually every southpaw.

The club might be better off exploring what’s out there on the trade market, however. After all, Torkelson’s youth, pedigree, and impressive results at the big league level in short stretches could make him an attractive change-of-scenery candidate for an up-and-coming team with a hole at first base like the Nationals, or even a more established club with a need at the position like the Astros. If a club was willing to offer big league pitching in return for Torkelson’s services, that would surely be a difficult proposition for the Tigers to turn down if they were already eyeing an upgrade over Torkelson at first base.

Yankees Sign Geoff Hartlieb To Minor League Deal

By Nick Deeds | October 26, 2024 at 8:46pm CDT

The Yankees and right-hander Geoff Hartlieb are in agreement on a minor league deal, as noted in the transactions tracker on Hartlieb’s MLB.com profile page. The deal presumably includes an invite to big league Spring Training next year.

Hartlieb, 31 in December, got his start in pro ball as a 29th-round pick by the Pirates in the 2016 draft. The righty made a fairly speedy ascent up the minor league ladder in order to debut with the Pirates during the 2019 season. The then-25-year-old Hartlieb struggled badly in his first taste of big league action as he surrendered a 9.00 ERA in 35 innings of work during his rookie year, thanks primarily to a 10.5% walk rate and a whopping eight home runs surrendered during that time. Things seemed to turn around for the right-hander during the shortened 2020 campaign as he settled in at the big league level and posted a solid 3.63 ERA in 22 1/3 innings of work, but a look under the hood revealed that Hartlieb walked as many hitters (19) as he struck out that year.

In the years since then, Hartlieb hasn’t gotten very much playing time at the big league level. He’s appeared in the majors during the 2021, ’23, and ’24 seasons but has combined for a total of just 22 innings during that time, posting an 8.59 ERA with a 17.3% strikeout rate against a 16.4% walk rate across stints with the Pirates, Mets, Marlins, and Rockies. Colorado was his most recent stop, and he surrendered ten runs (nine earned) while striking out seven and walking four in nine innings of work for the club this year before being outrighted off the club’s roster back in June.

Despite his lackluster results in the majors, the right-hander has looked solid enough at Triple-A throughout his career with a 4.30 ERA and a 24.8% strikeout rate across 226 career innings at the level. His control leaves something to be desired even at that level, however, as he’s surrendered free passes to 10% of his Triple-A opponents over the years. For a Yankees club that’s currently playing in the World Series, the addition of Hartlieb is far from an obvious needle-mover. With that being said, however, the club’s bullpen has generated generally impressive results by utilizing players like Luke Weaver, Tim Hill, and Ian Hamilton who hadn’t been able to find consistent success at the big league level prior to joining the club.

Given the club’s solid track record of turning the castoffs of other organizations into quality big league contributors in recent years, it’s easy to see why the Yankees might think they could turn Hartlieb and his 97.3 mph heater into a legitimate big league weapon. Unearthing another hidden gem for the bullpen this winter could be extremely helpful for the club given the impending free agencies of Hill, Tommy Kahnle, and Clay Holmes. Each of those arms have been a major part of the club’s success this year, with Holmes in particular serving as the club’s closer in the early part of the season before being replaced in the role by Weaver down the stretch.

Doug Bird Passes Away

By Nick Deeds | October 26, 2024 at 6:58pm CDT

11-year MLB veteran Doug Bird passed away late last month, according to an obituary from a North Carolina funeral home. The former Royals, Phillies, Yankees, Cubs, and Red Sox right-hander was 74 years old.

A California native in his early years, Bird was drafted by the Royals in the summer of 1969. He spent the next few years as a starter in the minor leagues before making his big league debut with Kansas City on April 29, 1973 as a reliever. His rookie season out of the bullpen was a strong one, as he pitched to an excellent 2.99 ERA in 102 1/3 innings of work. It was more of the same over the next two years, as Bird would go on to post a 3.01 ERA in 197 2/3 frames from 1974-75.

That strong resume in relief earned Bird a move into the rotation for the Royals’ 1976 season, though he still made 12 appearances out of the bullpen on top of his 27 starts that year. Bird was a solid back-of-the-rotation arm for the Royals that year, posting a 3.37 ERA that clocked in just above league average across his 197 2/3 innings of work. 1976 also saw Bird pitch in the first of three consecutive ALCS match-ups between the Royals and Yankees. He earned the win in Game 4 of the ’76 ALCS with 4 2/3 innings of one-run ball in relief of southpaw Larry Gura.

In 1977 and beyond, Bird moved back into a relief role. That change suited him just fine, as he told Norman L. Macht in a 2003 interview about his career that he preferred working out of the bullpen because starting pitchers were stuck “sitting around for four days doing nothing.” He took a bit of a step back in terms of productivity over his final two seasons with the Royals, as he surrendered a 4.52 ERA in 217 innings spread across 11 starts and 82 relief appearances before being traded to the Phillies in April of 1979. Bird’s stint with the Phillies was short-lived, however, as he struggled through one season with the club before being released by the club.

That led Bird to sign on with the Yankees, and he enjoyed something of a career renaissance with the club in the early 1980’s. While he donned pinstripes for just parts of two seasons, he was nothing short of excellent out of the Bronx bullpen during that time with a 2.68 ERA in 104 dominant innings of work. He was traded to Chicago partway through the 1981 season, however, and found himself moved back into a rotation role with the Cubs. The experiment went pretty well down the stretch that year, as Bird posted an above-average 3.58 ERA in 75 1/3 innings of work across 12 starts, but the 1982 season left much to be desired as he surrendered a 5.14 ERA in 191 innings before being traded to the Red Sox for the final season of his career. He pitched 67 2/3 frames for Boston before retiring that September at the age of 33.

Across his 11 seasons in the major leagues, the right-hander went 73-60 with a 3.99 ERA in 1213 2/3 innings of work. Those of us at MLBTR extend our condolences to Bird’s family, friends, and loved ones.

Braves Sign Zach Thompson To Minor League Deal

By Nick Deeds | October 26, 2024 at 4:50pm CDT

The Braves signed right-hander Zach Thompson to a minor league deal earlier this week, according to the the transactions tracker on his MLB.com profile page. Thompson went on to confirm the signing on his personal Instagram account yesterday. Thompson, who celebrated his 31st birthday earlier this week, did not sign with a club in 2024 after undergoing surgery last October to repair a partially torn flexor tendon.

A fifth-round pick by the White Sox in the 2014 draft, Thompson made his big league debut as a member of the Marlins back in 2021. It was an impressive rookie campaign for the right-hander, as proved to be a pivotal swing man for Miami during his lone campaign with the club. He started 14 of the 26 games he appeared in and generally looked good over 75 innings of work with a 3.24 ERA and 3.69 FIP. He struck out 21% of opponents while walking 8.9%. That first season in the majors was attractive enough to the Pirates that Thompson was shipped to Pittsburgh as part of the trade that sent Jacob Stallings to the Marlins during the 2021-22 offseason.

Unfortunately, Thompson’s 2022 campaign in Pittsburgh did not go nearly as well as his rookie year with the Marlins did. The right-hander pitched 122 1/3 innings of work for the Pirates that year across 29 appearances (22 starts), but saw his results take a nosedive as he surrendered a 5.18 ERA with a 4.87 FIP. While Thompson’s walk rate held largely steady at 8.5%, his strikeout rate dipped to just 16.6% and his home run rate nearly doubled, taking him from a well-above average swing option to someone the Pirates were comfortable designating for assignment in January of 2023.

Thompson was dealt to the Blue Jays in a minor trade shortly thereafter but did not make the club’s roster out of camp and was ultimately DFA’d by Toronto in June. He spent virtually the entire 2023 season as a start at the Triple-A level for the Jays, and posted a fairly lackluster 4.61 ERA in 105 1/3 innings of work across 24 starts while striking out just 17.4% of his opponents before going under the knife in October and electing free agency shortly thereafter.

Now that Thompson appears to be recovered from his surgery last year, he’ll look tor re-establish himself as a credible big league option with the Braves. Atlanta has done well helping other arms who have struggled elsewhere find success with their club, including 2024 bullpen pieces Grant Holmes and Jesse Chavez. With Chavez and lefty A.J. Minter both ticketed for free agency, it’s possible that Thompson could earn a bullpen job out of camp this spring if the Braves prioritize other areas of the roster like the rotation, where the club figures to watch both Max Fried and Charlie Morton depart from this year’s staff.

AL Central Notes: Warren, White Sox, Manfred, Caglianone

By Mark Polishuk | October 26, 2024 at 2:55pm CDT

The Tigers had interest in right-hander Will Warren during their trade talks with the Yankees this past summer, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports. The two clubs reportedly had a provisional agreement involving Jack Flaherty relatively close to being completed before New York backed out due to concerns over Flaherty’s medical records, though it should be noted that Heyman didn’t directly say that Warren was part of whatever trade package the Yankees were prepared to send to Detroit. Flaherty instead was dealt to the Dodgers for two position players, one of whom (Trey Sweeney) ended up playing an important role in the Tigers’ surprising late-season surge to a wild card berth.

Ironically, Warren ended up making his MLB debut on the trade deadline day of July 30, and he posted a 10.32 ERA over his first 22 2/3 innings in the big leagues. He also had a 5.91 ERA over 109 2/3 innings at Triple-A, though his minor league numbers were a little skewed by a nightmarish four-start stretch in May. Scouts and evaluators generally view Warren as a back-end starter or perhaps a long reliever at the MLB level, and while the Yankees naturally want to keep pitching depth on hand, Warren could be a relatively expendable prospect in terms of future trade possibilities (with Detroit or any other teams).

Trade Candidate: Josh Naylor

By Mark Polishuk | October 26, 2024 at 12:30pm CDT

Since Josh Naylor didn’t sign an extension with the Guardians during his pre-arbitration years, it has always seemed like there has been a ticking clock on the first baseman’s time in the Cleve. With the exceptions of Jose Ramirez and Carlos Carrasco agreeing to below-market extensions to stay with the franchise, a look at Cleveland’s extension history over the last 17 years (hat tip to MLBTR’s Contract Tracker) reveals the simple truth that the Guards virtually never sign players to long-term extensions for significant salaries once they get within a year or two of free agency.

Naylor is now entering his final season of team control, and is projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz to land a $12MM salary in his last trip through the arbitration process. It’s a nice raise from his $6.5MM salary in 2024, and since arbitration calculations tend to heavily weigh traditional counting stats, Naylor will handsomely cash in from posting a career-best 31 homers and 108 RBI.

A peek at the more advanced metrics is a little more troublesome, as Naylor’s 118 wRC+ (from a .243/.320/.456 slash line in 633 plate appearances) was solid but not quite elite, and a drop from his 127 wRC+ in 2023. That prior season saw Naylor enjoy a .326 BABIP, while the batted-ball luck turned on him this season to the tune of a .246 BABIP. Most of Naylor’s production also came in the first three months of the season, and it could be that the career-high 633 PA led to Naylor wearing down as the year progressed. On the plus side, Naylor remained above-average in most Statcast categories, and he was a far more patient hitter than in years past, with a 9.2% walk rate that is also a career best.

All this being said, even “only” a repeat of his 2024 season should put Naylor (who turns 28 in June) in line for a lucrative free agent deal when he reaches the open market next winter. It also very likely puts him out of Cleveland’s price range over the long term, and quite possibly even for the 2025 campaign.

The Guards had some increased attendance at Progressive Field during the regular season and they got a nice revenue boost from hosting six playoff games, yet the organization will also experience some level of dropoff in their broadcasting dollars. MLB itself will now be handling the local distribution of Guardians games after the Diamond Sports Group backed out of its original contracts with the Guards and 10 other teams, which means that the Guardians will receive some but not all of the broadcast revenue they would’ve received under the terms of their previous deal.

In a world where the Guardians were still getting all of that TV money, odds are Naylor would still have been traded, just because that’s how the Guards have traditionally done business. And of course, it isn’t an absolute guarantee that the first baseman will be on the move this offseason. President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti might not find an offer to his liking, or ownership could approve a slightly higher payroll to make another run with what looks like a winning core. Naylor could then be shopped at the deadline if the Guardians aren’t in contention, or kept through his last remaining season of team control and then very likely let go in free agency. That latter scenario would at least put Cleveland in position to land a draft pick as compensation if Naylor rejected a qualifying offer and signed elsewhere.

Selling high on Naylor this winter might land more than just a draft pick, however. Naylor’s name has already surfaced in past trade rumors, as the Cubs, Mariners, and Pirates all reportedly had talks with the Guardians about Naylor last winter. Chicago’s subsequent acquisition of Michael Busch probably takes them out of the running, yet Seattle and Pittsburgh are both still targeting first base help, and offensive help in general.

While neither the M’s or Pirates are expected to be big spenders in free agency anyway, Naylor stands out as a major backup plan for any team that misses out on Pete Alonso or Christian Walker — the two biggest first basemen on the free agent market. For one year and around $12MM, Naylor isn’t a huge splurge even for smaller-market clubs, or clubs like the Guardians who are facing broadcasting concerns. Broadly looking at teams who have a clear or potential need at first base or DH, any of the Mets, Diamondbacks, Yankees, Astros, Brewers, Blue Jays, Reds, Nationals, Rays, Giants, or Padres (Naylor’s former team) could join the Pirates and Mariners as potential suitors. The Tigers or Royals could also technically fit on this list but Cleveland is less likely to move Naylor to a division rival.

Since the Guardians have a lot of uncertainty in their starting rotation next year, teams that have pitching to offer might have a leg up in trade talks. The Guards’ usual tactic of pursuing at least one prospect and at least one immediate MLB-ready player in trades could be limited by the fact that Naylor is only controlled for one season, since Naylor doesn’t have the ceiling that, say, Francisco Lindor did when Cleveland dealt the star shortstop to the Mets during the 2020-21 offseason.

There’s also the matter of how the Guardians will replace Naylor in their lineup. Cleveland’s acquisition of prospect Kyle Manzardo from the Rays in 2023 was seen as a potential lead-in for Naylor’s departure, and Manzardo hit .234/.282/.421 (for a 98 wRC+) over his first 156 Major League PA this season. The Guards might be confident enough in a combination of Manzardo, Jhonkensy Noel, and super-utilityman David Fry to take over first base in the event that Naylor is traded, or a lower-cost veteran could be acquired to provide more depth. It can easily be argued that a Guardians team even with Naylor back is still in need of more offense, so trading Naylor could put Cleveland in need of finding an even bigger bat for the outfield.

The trade-and-replace routine has become familiar over the years in Cleveland, and the fanbase might grit their teeth at the idea of dealing away another prominent player for payroll-related reasons. Moving Naylor in particular has a unique layer of potential awkwardness since his brother Bo will presumably remain on Cleveland’s roster, thus breaking up the fun idea of a family connection at the heart of the lineup.

Still, the Guardians’ tactic of trading players rather than just letting them walk in free agency has allowed the club to continually reload both the farm system and the active roster. Antonetti doesn’t have a spotless track record with his deals, yet Antonetti’s high batting average on the trade market has helped the Guards post winning records in 10 of the last 12 seasons, with seven postseason trips in that span. Finding the right match on a Naylor trade this winter might result in Cleveland getting back to the playoffs next fall.

2024-25 Offseason Outlook Series

By Mark Polishuk | October 26, 2024 at 11:24am CDT

MLB Trade Rumors’ annual Offseason Outlook series is back, as we break down what all 30 teams could have in store for their roster machinations this winter. Going forward, the Outlook series is exclusive to Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers, and that link provides details on how to sign up for an annual membership.

This post acts as the landing page for all 30 entries, as the series is now complete.

AL West

AL Central

AL East

NL West

NL Central

NL East

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