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Latest On Yankees’ Offseason Plans

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The Yankees’ offseason was largely focused on Juan Soto until he agreed to a new deal with the Mets, which has pushed the Yanks towards various backup plans. They now have agreements in place with Max Fried and Jonathan Loáisiga but there’s still plenty more work to be done. They are seemingly looking for an outfielder, a couple of infielders and more bullpen help. That could come from further free agent signings but they also have a rotation surplus that could help them on the trade market.

One name they have frequently been connected to is Cody Bellinger of the Cubs. He is capable of playing either the outfield or first base, two spots where the Yankees need help, though Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that the Yanks probably view Bellinger as a better fit in left field.

The Yanks are expected to move Aaron Judge back to right field, after he served as the club’s primary center fielder while sharing the roster with Soto. Now that Soto is gone, it seems the plan is to give Jasson Domínguez a chance to seize the center field job, with Trent Grisham around as a glove-first insurance option. They would still need a solution in left, since Alex Verdugo is now a free agent, though Bellinger is a possibility there. Bellinger has played left field far less than center or right but there’s no reason to think he couldn’t handle himself over there.

Lining up with the Cubs on value may be an issue, however. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that the Cubs are hoping for the Yankees to take on most of his remaining contract, while the Yanks think the Cubs should be eating some more money in the deal.

Bellinger had a chance to opt out of his deal last month and didn’t take it, which implies that he thinks his current contract is better than what he could get on the open market, at least for now. He is set to make $27.5MM in 2025, then with a choice between a $5MM buyout or a $25MM salary in 2026. If he were a free agent right now, he could perhaps secure a long-term deal with a guarantee larger than the $52.5MM he’s currently owed, but his current deal has short-term appeal. There is still a path towards him having a good season in 2025, banking $32.5MM this year and returning to the open market.

That would be the best case scenario for the Yankees or any acquiring team. If Bellinger produces at a level commensurate with that salary and leaves, that’s a nice scenario for the upcoming campaign. But there’s also the alternate reality where he disappoints, it overpaid this coming season and then sticks around for 2026 as well.

Bellinger’s inconsistent career makes either path possible to see and teams will have differing opinions about which is more likely or what they are willing to risk for the right to take a chance. At the moment, it seems the Yankees and Cubs aren’t in alignment on the calculations but Heyman says progress has been made this week.

Though he won an MVP award back in 2019, Bellinger struggled immensely in 2021 and 2022 while trying to get back in form after shoulder surgery. His past two seasons have both been good but to varying degrees. He hit .307/.356/.525 for a 136 wRC+ in 2023 while stealing 20 bases, but then hit .266/.325/.426 for a 109 wRC+ this year while swiping nine bags.

Another possible target area for the Yanks is third base. They do have Jazz Chisholm Jr. as an in-house possibility there, but he could move him to second base if they were to acquire someone like Nolan Arenado or Alex Bregman for the hot corner.

The Cardinals are exploring the market for Arenado, who has a full no-trade clause. It was reported earlier this week that Arenado is willing to approve trades to six teams. The Yankees weren’t on there but it’s possible that the list wasn’t exhaustive. Feinsand relays that it’s expected Arenado would approve a trade to the Bronx. That’s a logical conclusion since Arenado seems to want to play for a contender and there’s no doubting the Yanks qualify there. They just made it to the World Series and are clearly being aggressive in ramping up for another push next year.

Arenado hasn’t been his usual self over the past two years, however, and it’s fair to wonder if he can get back there now that he’s on the cusp of his 34th birthday. He hit .293/.358/.533 for a 149 wRC+ as recently as 2022 but has slashed a combined .269/.320/.426 for a 104 wRC+ over the past two years. His strong third base defense still makes him an attractive option but, like Bellinger, he’s making notable money. He is set to make $74MM over the next three years, though the Rockies are covering $10MM of that and there are also deferrals.

Bregman is likely viewed as a better option in the short term, but there are complications. He’s going into his age-31 season, making him notably younger than Arenado. He doesn’t quite have the same defensive reputation but is above average in the field. He hit .260/.315/.453 for a 118 wRC+ inf 2024 and was even better after an early-season slump. He hit .280/.329/.509 from May 9 through the end of the year for a 137 wRC+.

But as a free agent, he’s going to command a contract larger than what’s left on Arenado’s deal. MLBTR predicted him for a contract worth $182MM over seven years and the market has been hot so far this winter, so that might be selling him short at this point. There’s also the lingering resentment from the 2017 sign-stealing scandal that was eventually brought to light, creating enough bitterness that general manager Brian Cashman brought it up unprompted during a recent appearance on MLB Network. However, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports that Bregman’s involvement in that scandal would not stand in the way of the Yankees pursuing him.

In the bullpen, both Feinsand and Hoch mention that the Yankees are interested in left-hander Tanner Scott for their bullpen. He just wrapped up a season in which he posted a 1.75 earned run average, 28.6% strikeout rate, 12.2% walk rate and 50% ground ball rate. The Yankees have a longstanding affinity for ground ball guys and don’t really have a left-handed reliever on the roster at the moment, with Tim Hill and Tim Mayza now free agents.

Scott would be a great fit but should be popular and could earn a notable contract. MLBTR predicted him for $56MM over four years and the aforementioned hot market could make that estimate low at this point.

As the Yankees assess those possible acquisitions, they are also going to be fielding offers on their starting pitchers. They now have Fried, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt, Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman as established rotation options, plus depth pieces like JT Brubaker, Cody Poteet, Will Warren and others. Cortes and Stroman have been in trade rumors before but Hoch reports that Gil and Schmidt have drawn interest and Cashman tells him that the club will be “open-minded to all possibilities.”

It’s unsurprising that Gil and Schmidt would draw interest. Gil just won American League Rookie of the Year after posting a 3.50 ERA for the Yanks. Schmidt had a 2.85 ERA but was limited by injury to just 16 starts. Gil is still in his pre-arbitration years and can be controlled through 2028 while Schmidt is projected for a modest $3.5MM next year by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz and can be controlled through 2027.

Storman and Cortes would have less trade value. Stroman is coming off a middling season in which he posted a 4.31 ERA and got bumped from the rotation by the end of the year. He’s going to make $18MM next year and could also unlock a player option of the same value for 2026 if he pitches 140 innings next year. Cortes is now one year away from free agency with a projected $7.7MM salary next year. He had a decent 3.77 ERA this past year but his strikeout rate fell for the third year in a row and he missed a lot of time due to injuries in 2023.

Though Gil or Schmidt would have more value to another club, that’s also true of the Yankees. Their competitive balance tax number is now estimated at $264MM, per RosterResource, meaning they are already over the second tax tier of $261MM and within striking distance of the $281MM third tier. Going over that third tier leads to escalating penalties and also the club’s top draft pick being pushed back ten spots. That is seen as a line for some clubs but the Yanks just finished 2024 with a CBT number of $313MM, so it may not be any kind of red line.

There are still various paths forward for the Yanks via free agency and trade. They’ve also been linked to Christian Walker, Kyle Tucker and plenty of others. Though it’s now the middle of December, their offseason is still very much in the early stages.

White Sox Sign Dan Altavilla To Minor League Deal

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The White Sox announced Thursday that they’ve signed right-handed reliever Dan Altavilla to a minor league contract. The MAS+ Agency client will be in spring training as a non-roster invitee.

Altavilla, 32, has pitched in parts of seven big league seasons but frequently dealt with injuries that have limited his amount of time on the mound. Since making his MLB debut with the 2016 Mariners, Altavilla’s laundry list of injuries includes shoulder inflammation, a pair of UCL sprains (the latter resulting in Tommy John surgery), a forearm strain and a notable oblique strain that sent him to the 60-day injured list just this past season.

In his first three seasons from 2016-18, all coming with Seattle, Altavilla pitched a combined 79 2/3 innings with a 3.28 ERA, 25.3% strikeout rate and 10.7% walk rate. He’s managed just 40 big league innings since, working to a combined 6.53 earned run average along the way. It’s not as though Altavilla has been consistently healthy in the minors during that stretch, either; he’s totaled 84 1/3 minor league frames in that time, bringing him to a total 120 1/3 frames in a span of six years.

There’s little doubt that Altavilla is talented when his arm is right. Even with his recent injury-plagued seasons weighing down his career numbers, he carries a 4.36 ERA and 26% strikeout rate in the big leagues. He pitched just 3 2/3 MLB innings with Kansas City this past season but averaged a sizzling 96.8 mph on his heater. In 41 Triple-A innings for K.C., he logged a 3.51 ERA, albeit with a 22.2% strikeout rate and 12.9% walk rate — both pedestrian marks.

The rebuilding White Sox will have plenty of room for non-roster players to compete for bullpen jobs this coming spring. Right now, the only relievers with even a year of experience in the Chicago bullpen are Justin Anderson, Jared Shuster, Steven Wilson and Ron Marinaccio. If Altavilla cracks the roster, he could log some meaningful innings and will be controllable through the 2026 campaign, as he currently has only 4.153 years of MLB service.

Angels Have Checked In On Arenado, Bohm, E. Suarez

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The Angels are known to be open to an everyday addition at third base, and Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports they’ve at least gauged the respective asking prices for Nolan Arenado, Alec Bohm and Eugenio Suarez in talks with the Cardinals, Phillies and Diamondbacks, respectively.

The Halos are reportedly one of the at least six teams to which Arenado would approve a trade, though that’s a somewhat surprising development in and of itself. Both reporting out of St. Louis and, more recently, direct quotes from agent Joel Wolfe have suggested that the eight-time All-Star would prefer to land with a team that has a clear path to contention over the remaining three years of his contract. Said Wolfe earlier this week to a host of reporters at the Winter Meetings: “He wants a team that has the throttle down … that he believes he can jump right in and they’re going to win right now.”

While the Angels are clearly looking to better the club — they’ve added Yusei Kikuchi, Jorge Soler, Travis d’Arnaud, Kevin Newman and Kyle Hendricks this winter — it’s less clear that those moves position them as a contender for the foreseeable future. The Angels’ 63-99 record was the fourth-worst in MLB last season, landing them last place in the American League West. Arenado is an Anaheim-area native, however, having been born in Newport Beach and attended high school in Lake Forest. That proximity to home could understandably hold some sway, especially when coupled with a series of win-now moves from the Angels over the past six weeks or so.

Arenado, 34 in April, is owed $74MM over the next three seasons, but the Rockies are on the hook for $10MM of that under the terms of the deal that sent him from Denver to St. Louis several years ago. His offensive contributions have fallen off over the past two seasons — .269/.320/.426, compared to .293/.358/.553 in third-place MVP season in 2022 — but the six-time Platinum Glove winner remains a premium defender with excellent contact skills. That sets something of a high floor, while the money left on his contract means the asking price for Arenado (prospect-wise) won’t be exorbitant unless the Cardinals pay down a notable portion of the deal.

With Bohm, the asking price has appeared higher, at least in the Phillies’ early asks. They reportedly asked the Mariners about right-handers Logan Gilbert and George Kirby in early talks regarding the longtime Philadelphia third baseman — an outlandish ask even coming off a solid season for Bohm. (That said, it stands to reason the Phillies would aim high early in any trade talks.)

Bohm, 28, hit .280/.332/.448 this past season, but the overwhelming majority of his production came in an outrageous April wherein he slashed .366/.438/.598. From May 1 onward, Bohm hit just .258/.303/.410 — slightly below league-average production. He’s long had negative defensive grades at third base but made strides in 2024 according to both Defensive Runs Saved (0) and Outs Above Average (4). Whether that’s sustainable will be a question interested clubs weigh carefully. Bohm is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $8.1MM in 2025 and is controllable through the 2026 season.

It’s not entirely clear that Suarez is available — Arenado and Bohm very much are — but the D-backs are a medium-payroll club with inhouse options to step up in the event that a deal comes together. Top prospect Jordan Lawlar is all but MLB-ready, and young Blaze Alexander could take some reps at the hot corner alongside shortstop Geraldo Perdomo if the Snakes opt to give Lawlar a bit more seasoning in Triple-A.

At one point this season, Suarez even briefly looked to be losing the grip on his starting third base job to Alexander. Suarez caught fire shortly thereafter, however, and not only regained his form but was one of the game’s best hitters in the season’s final three months: .312/.357/.617, 24 home runs in his final 325 plate appearances from July 1 onward. That prompted the D-backs to exercise a $15MM club option. Suarez is a free agent following the season, though, and it’s feasible that the Diamondbacks could move him for some minor league talent, go with Alexander/Lawlar at third base in 2025, and reallocate Suarez’s salary to needs at first base, in the bullpen and on the bench. That’s speculative, but the fact that the Angels have at least checked in suggests the Diamondbacks didn’t expressly turn them away.

It seems clear that GM Perry Minasian is seeking upgrades at the hot corner, even with Anthony Rendon signed for another two seasons. Any of the three players listed here would fit the bill, given what the Halos received at third base last year (combined .217/.290/.311 batting line). That’s also true of Alex Bregman and Gleyber Torres — another reported target of the Angels — but Fletcher adds that Bregman and perhaps even Torres might be out of the Angels’ price range at this point. That Torres might be too spendy doesn’t bode well for an Arenado acquisition (again, barring financial help from the Cards), but Bohm and Suarez seem feasible.

Red Sox Have Spoken With John Means

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It seems that Corbin Burnes isn’t the only former Orioles All-Star to catch the Red Sox’s eye. According to a report from Chris Cotillo of MassLive, Boston has had some discussions with free agent starter John Means. Once a promising hurler, the southpaw’s career has been derailed by injuries over the last three years. He underwent his second Tommy John procedure this past May and will not be able to pitch for most of the 2025 season.

An 11th-round draft pick in 2014, Means was never a highly-ranked prospect. However, he pitched reasonably well throughout the minor leagues and earned a spot on Baltimore’s Opening Day roster in 2019. After three strong appearances from the bullpen, he made his first big league start in mid-April and continued to thrive out of the rotation. He was named an All-Star that summer and finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting that fall.

From 2019-21, Means made 67 appearances (63 starts) pitching to a 3.73 ERA and 4.48 SIERA in 345 1/3 innings. He was rarely dominant, struggling to miss bats or induce groundballs. However, his control was excellent (he walked just 5.1% of batters), and he averaged 5 1/3 innings per start. He may not have been much more than a league-average starting pitcher, but there’s value in league-average, especially for a basement-dwelling club like the Orioles of that era.

Unfortunately, injuries were always a problem for Means. He spent time on the IL in each season from 2019-21 with various arm ailments. Then, things took a turn for the worse in April 2022 when he needed his first Tommy John surgery. His left elbow and forearm continued to give him trouble as he tried to make his way back, and eventually, he needed a second Tommy John in May 2024. For what it’s worth, he was quite effective in the 10 starts he managed to make between 2022-24, giving up just 16 earned runs (2.75 ERA) in 52 1/3 innings. Yet, that thin silver lining pales in comparison to all the cause for concern.

Means is most likely seeking a two-year deal that will allow him to prioritize his rehab for most of 2025. In return, he would, ideally, provide his new club with a full, healthy season in 2026. However, his extensive injury history and lack of upside could prevent any teams from offering him such a two-year guarantee. Thus, he might be looking at something more like the one-year contract Matthew Boyd signed with the Guardians last summer. That deal was technically worth $3.5MM, although it was prorated to $1.75MM because Boyd signed mid-season. Like Means, Boyd was an injury-prone arm coming off Tommy John surgery when he signed with Cleveland.

If Boston is seriously considering Means, it would likely be as a low-risk depth signing with the potential to pay off late in the year. In other words, signing Means would not necessarily take them out of the running for other starting pitchers on the free agent or trade markets if chief baseball officer Craig Breslow is serious about continuing to pursue rotation upgrades for the 2025 season.

Latest On Giants, Corbin Burnes

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With Max Fried joining the Yankees and Garrett Crochet landing with the Red Sox, all eyes are on Corbin Burnes. The 2021 NL Cy Young winner was always, arguably, the best starter up for grabs this winter on either the free agent market or the trade block. Now, he might be the only ace-level pitcher left available.

On Wednesday, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand suggested the Blue Jays and Giants would be the two most “aggressive” teams in pursuit of Burnes, though he described the Blue Jays as the favorites. His sources were “skeptical” that San Francisco could beat Toronto in a bidding war, given that the Giants already signed Willy Adames to a seven-year, $182MM contract earlier this month. This morning, however, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that the Giants, not the Blue Jays, are the “heavy favorites” to sign the All-Star right-hander.

On a similar note, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey met with agent Scott Boras late on Tuesday evening, presumably to discuss his client Burnes. Yet, Heyman does not categorize the Giants as the clear favorites, writing that both Toronto and San Francisco are making a “strong push” for the ace. He adds that four more teams are still in the mix for Burnes’s services, including his former team, the Orioles. As Heyman mentions, the Yankees and Red Sox are also thought to be interested, at least to some degree, even after adding Fried and Crochet, respectively. However, it’s not clear who the sixth team Heyman refers to could be. The Mets might have seemed like another potential landing spot, especially before they signed Juan Soto, but Tim Healey of Newsday Sports reported on Tuesday that the Mets are not expected to sign Burnes.

Turning back to the Giants, this is a team that could certainly use another top-of-the-rotation pitcher. Their starters finished 18th in ERA and 29th in innings pitched this past season. Some of their underlying numbers were more promising, such as the ninth-best SIERA in MLB, but after losing Blake Snell, it’s hard to imagine the Giants rotation, as currently constructed, could perform better in 2025. Other than ace Logan Webb, no Giants starter threw more than 125 innings in 2024. Robbie Ray is a huge question mark after missing much of the past two seasons with injuries. Jordan Hicks ran out of gas down the stretch and ultimately had to move back to the bullpen. He also dealt with shoulder issues in August and September. Kyle Harrison and Hayden Birdsong are promising young arms but have yet to prove themselves at the MLB level. Neither have Landen Roupp, Keaton Winn, or Mason Black.

At the Winter Meetings, Posey told reporters (including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area) that he has “a lot of belief” in his young pitchers and expressed hope they will “take a big step forward” in 2025. Still, the Giants could use another arm to depend on at the top of the rotation. Other than Webb, it’s not clear who on this team could start in a postseason series. Needless to say, Burnes could fill that role. If not Burnes, Pavlovic suggests the Giants are “likely” to sign another veteran starter. They haven’t been linked to many others yet, although they expressed interest in NPB ace Tomoyuki Sugano earlier this winter. According to Pavlovic, they were also in on Shane Bieber before he re-signed with the Guardians.

Pirates Have Reportedly Been Willing To Listen On Mitch Keller

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The Pirates already moved one big league pitcher this week, sending righty Luis Ortiz to the Guardians in a trade to acquire new first baseman Spencer Horwitz, but Pittsburgh’s pitching depth could be sufficient enough to set the stage for another deal. Noah Hiles and Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette report that the Bucs have also been willing to talk about right-hander Mitch Keller, whom they signed to an extension just this past spring. Righty Jared Jones was even someone on whom the Pirates were at least willing to listen, per the report, though it’s not clear whether the trade of Ortiz has reduced their willingness to talk about other controllable, pre-arbitration arms.

Trading either right-hander would be somewhat surprising, albeit to differing degrees. Any player who signs a notable contract in Pittsburgh is going to eventually come up in trade rumblings as the salaries escalate. Still, moving Keller fewer than 12 months after signing him to an extension that promised him just over $71MM in new money from 2025-28, would be unexpected. He’s owed $15MM in 2025, $16.5MM in 2026, $18MM in 2027 and $20MM in 2028 — a total of $69.5MM over the next four seasons.

Keller, 29 in March, has posted similar bottom-line results in each of the past two seasons: a 4.21 ERA in 32 starts during the 2023 campaign and a 4.25 ERA in 31 starts in 2024. He posted strong, nearly identical walk rates between the two seasons (6.7% in ’23, 6.5% in ’24) and had the exact same 1.16 HR/9 mark in each year.

However, Keller lost four percentage points off his strikeout rate from 2023 (25.5%) to 2024 (21.5%), while his average four-seamer dropped by 0.8 mph and his sinker lost about a half mile per hour. He allowed more balls in the air, more hard contact and more overall contact in 2024 — particularly within the strike zone. Fielding-independent metrics were more bullish on his 2023 work (3.80 FIP, 3.83 SIERA) than on his 2024 efforts (4.08 from both FIP and SIERA).

Regardless, Keller is a quality arm with enough velocity, prospect pedigree, track record and (perhaps most importantly) affordability to draw considerable interest on the market. Even if the Bucs weren’t necessarily interested in trading him at the outset of the offseason, the soaring prices of free-agent pitching have suddenly made Keller look like even more of a bargain. Consider that 37-year-old Alex Cobb secured a $15MM guarantee coming off a season in which he made three starts or that Frankie Montas, 32 in March, commanded a $17MM annual value (with an opt-out) after a 4.84 ERA with a similar strikeout rate and worse command in fewer innings — and Keller’s contract looks quite appealing.

The Pirates don’t necessarily need to shop Keller, but there’s no getting around the reality that a $15MM salary for him this season — and the escalating numbers in subsequent seasons — is a sizable number for Pittsburgh in a way that isn’t true in other markets. Hiles and Destin suggest that any trade from the big league rotation would be made with an eye toward both adding a major league bat to a lackluster lineup. In Keller’s case, it’d also free up money to pursue help at other areas of need. Corner outfield, second base and the bullpen are among the areas that come to mind.

A trade of the 23-year-old Jones would register as something of a stunner. The former second-round pick entered the 2024 season lauded  as one of the game’s best prospects and quickly established himself as a viable big league arm while demonstrating star upside. Jones averaged a blazing 97.3 mph on his four-seamer, fanned 26.2% of his opponents against a tidy 7.7% walk rate and pitched 121 2/3 innings of 4.14 ERA ball. His huge 14.1% swinging-strike rate showed clear potential for even more strikeouts.

Jones missed about seven weeks with a lat strain and showed signs of rust in his return late in the year. Prior to landing on the injured list, he’d pitched 91 innings of 3.56 ERA ball with strikeout and walk rates right in line with his season-long rates. He was more prone to homers and walks in his relatively brief September return than he’d been prior to the injury, suggesting his command was lacking — not a huge surprise for a young pitcher simultaneously returning from an injury and establishing a new career-high number of innings (when combining his big league total with his 11 rehab frames).

Moving Jones would require a seismic return. He’s a 23-year-old with five seasons of club control, elite velocity, plus bat-missing abilities, strong command and some big league success already under his belt. One would imagine the Pirates would only even entertain the notion if presented with a hitter of similar upside and club control. Even then, given the rarity of starters with this upside, the Bucs might seek additional prospects on top of any young hitter(s) they’d target. If Jones were truly available, he would likely be the most coveted arm on the entire starting pitching market — and rightly so.

General manager Ben Cherington told Hiles and Destin Wednesday (after the Ortiz trade) that he could “in theory” move another arm from his rotation but cautioned against dipping to far into his cache of arms. The Pirates have Paul Skenes, Keller, Jones, Bailey Falter and Johan Oviedo as current starters with some big league success under their belts, plus an enviable line of well-regarded prospects behind them. Mike Burrows and Braxton Ashcraft are both on the 40-man roster, while prospects Thomas Harrington and Bubba Chandler are close to the majors. Chandler, in particular, is regarded as one of the best pitching prospects in the game (as Jones and Skenes were an offseason ago). He ranked 15th, 19th and 21st on the most recent top-100 prospect rankings from MLB.com, FanGraphs and Baseball America, respectively.

Readers (Pirates fans, in particular) will want to check out the entire piece from Destin and Hiles, as the portion on starting pitching is just one of several Winter Meetings topics the report explores. The Post-Gazette duo also touches on Jack Suwinski’s offseason efforts to put an ugly 2024 season behind him, injured righty Hunter Stratton’s rehab, and some potential news on the coaching front.

Juan Soto’s Hall Of Fame Track

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Juan Soto’s free agency was the offseason’s biggest storyline for good reason. It concluded Sunday evening with a colossal 15-year, $765MM deal with the Mets, which is now official. Soto brings with him a résumé that’ll almost certainly send him to Cooperstown in a couple decades.

Soto wouldn’t be a Hall of Famer if he retired tomorrow. He doesn’t have the requisite 10 seasons of major league action for consideration and he obviously hasn’t accrued HOF-caliber counting stats in just seven years. Yet he’s about as much of a lock for future induction as a player can possibly get by the time he turns 26.

The accolades are already beginning to stack up. Soto has yet to win an MVP award, but he’s finished in the top 10 in five of his six full seasons. He has a trio of top five placements. He’s been named to the All-Star Game four years running and would’ve gotten a fifth nod had the Midsummer Classic been played in 2020. Soto carries an ongoing streak of five consecutive Silver Slugger awards.

The statistical profile is eye-popping. Through his first 936 career games, Soto is a .285/.421/.532 hitter. The .953 OPS puts him in rarified air. Soto is tied with Todd Helton for 23rd on the career OPS leaderboard. That was enough to get Helton, who played his home games at Coors Field at a time when offense was much higher around the league, into Cooperstown. Helton had a career 133 OPS+ after adjusting for the park and league setting. Soto is rocking a 160 OPS+ despite the identical raw slash line.

Players with this kind of rate production are locks for the Hall of Fame unless they taint their case with performance-enhancing drug ties. 19 of the top 25 hitters in career OPS are Hall of Famers. Aaron Judge, Mike Trout and Soto are still playing. The only retired hitters among that group who aren’t in Cooperstown: Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez and Mark McGwire. Needless to say, they’re not excluded because their numbers weren’t good enough.

A .953 OPS is well above the general bar for induction. Most players who are in the top 100 are Hall of Famers. Landing among the top 75 makes a hitter a near-lock (barring PED connections). Even if Soto lost .050 points of OPS over the rest of his career — which seems unlikely — he’d still be above the likes of Miguel Cabrera, Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts.

Any kind of precipitous drop shouldn’t happen soon. There are plenty of Hall of Famers whose production plummeted in the final three to five seasons of their careers. Even if Soto doesn’t avoid that fate, the short-term numbers are more likely to continue climbing than fall. He’s arguably at the beginning of his prime. This past season was probably the best full season of his career. He topped 40 homers for the first time, finished one RBI off his career high, and set a new best with 7.9 wins above replacement (bWAR). Soto’s rate stats were unquestionably better in the shortened 2020 season, but this was as effective as he’s been over any 162-game schedule.

Youth was one of the biggest selling points in his record-setting free agent trip. Very few hitters have been this productive through their mid-20s. Soto has 201 career homers, tied for seventh all time through a player’s age-25 season. He’s 15th in runs batted in through the same age. Among hitters with at least 2000 plate appearances before their 26th birthday, Soto is 12th in on-base percentage. Of the 11 players above him, only Frank Thomas has played in the last 50 years. This kind of plate discipline so early in a hitter’s career is truly generational.

The Opener: Bregman, Soto, Adames

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With the Winter Meetings behind us, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. All eyes on Bregman?

After a frenzy of rumors and action at the Winter Meetings, MLB’s hot stove season will continue chugging along even with agents and executives having departed Dallas yesterday. According to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, infielder Alex Bregman could be the next major domino to fall on the free agent market. Feinsand notes that the Astros, Red Sox, Yankees, and Tigers are among the teams “in the mix” for Bregman’s services. Among those options, the Astros are known to have made an offer to Bregman in the vicinity of six years and $156MM prior to the Winter Meetings, though at the time reports indicated Bregman was hoping to land a contract north of $200MM. Meanwhile, Bregman is an apparently divisive target in the eyes of Boston brass as Alex Cora and Sam Kennedy are reportedly more intrigued than chief baseball officer Craig Breslow at the idea of pursuing Bregman. The Red Sox reportedly envision Bregman at second base if signed, a position he has expressed willingness to play despite a lack of experience at the position in the majors.

2. Soto presser:

After the Mets officially signed Juan Soto to the biggest contract in professional sports history yesterday, Brian McGrath of MLB.com writes that the club is expected to formally introduce Soto in a press conference slated for 3pm ET this afternoon that will also feature club owner Steve Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns. The press conference could shed some additional light on a free agent process that captivated the baseball world in the weeks leading up to the Winter Meetings as well as the next steps Mets brass have planned. The club will likely add at least one more starter to their rotation, and Stearns recently stated that they’d “love” to reunite with first baseman Pete Alonso as well.

3. Adames presser:

While the Soto presser may get more buzz, he’s not the only top free agent being introduced by his new team via press conference today. As noted by MLB.com, the Giants are poised to introduce shortstop Willy Adames in a press conference scheduled for 11:30am PT. Newly-minted president of baseball operations Buster Posey will surely be on hand to discuss the first major free agent signing of his tenure and possibly to discuss the club’s next steps. The Giants are regarded as a top candidate to land top free agent starter Corbin Burnes, although they face competition from the Blue Jays, Red Sox, and incumbent Orioles. Beyond that, the club was among the teams said to be interested in Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker yesterday. That suggests a willingness to pursue star-caliber talent in both trade and free agency as they look for more ways to improve the club this winter after a disappointing 80-82 finish in 2024.

Red Sox Acquire Garrett Crochet

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The long-awaited Garrett Crochet trade is finally here. The lefty will be swapping his White Sox for Red Sox, according to announcements from both clubs. Four prospects are going the other way: catcher Kyle Teel, outfielder Braden Montgomery, infielder Chase Meidroth and right-hander Wikelman Gonzalez.

Crochet, 25, was the eleventh overall pick in the 2020 draft and made his big league debut that same season with a six-inning cup of coffee. He was a key piece of the White Sox bullpen in 2021 with a 2.82 ERA and 2.80 FIP in 54 1/3 innings of work but missed the entire 2022 season and a portion of the 2023 campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The lefty ultimately made just 13 appearances in the majors last year and struggled in 12 2/3 innings while walking more batters than he struck out during that time.

When the White Sox made the decision to not only move Crochet into the rotation but name him the club’s Opening Day starter back in March, the news came as something of a shock given his lengthy injury history. The move proved to be a fateful one, however, as Crochet went on to turn in a dominant season for Chicago to emerge as the club’s lone bright spot amid a brutal 121-loss season. Crochet pitched 146 innings across 32 starts for the White Sox this year, and in doing so posted a 3.58 ERA (115 ERA+) with a phenomenal 2.69 FIP. Among starters with at least 100 innings of work in 2024, Crochet led the sport in strikeout rate (35.1%) and SIERA (2.53) while also posting an elite 5.5% walk rate and a solid 45.1% groundball rate.

Those unmatched peripheral numbers paint a picture of Crochet as among the game’s very best starters on a rate basis, offering a rare combination of command and top-end velocity from the left side. That’s not to say Crochet comes completely without concerns, of course. He was quite prone to giving up hard contact with the White Sox this year, as evidenced by 14.4% of his fly balls leaving the yard for home runs and a 9.2% barrel rate that was in the bottom 15 among all MLB starters with at least 140 innings this year. While that proclivity towards lackluster batted ball results can be more than made up for with Crochet’s elite strikeout-to-walk ratios, the lefty’s lack of track record due to a substantial injury history is also sure to raise some eyebrows. His 146 innings of work this year represents the first time he’s thrown more than 65 innings in a season dating back to his college days in the SEC, and he threw even 90 pitches in just nine of his 32 starts this year.

Of course, it’s hardly a surprise that Crochet’s workload was closely managed given he more than doubled his previous career high for innings in 2024. Barring injury, it’s easy to imagine the Red Sox being able to stretch him out for larger workloads over the course of his two remaining seasons of team control, and perhaps even for as soon as the 2025 campaign. Ultimately, Crochet profiles as one of the most impactful arms in the entire sport on a per-inning basis, and that was clearly enough for a Red Sox club that has been on the hunt for an ace all winter to pull the triggers regardless of durability concerns.

The upside to Crochet’s limitations in previous seasons is that it has tamped down his earning power to this point in his career. He has accrued over four years of major league service time but since so much of that was spent either on the injured list or in the bullpen, he hasn’t been able to push his salary up terribly high. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for just $2.9MM next year. He will be due another raise in 2026 before his slated trip to free agency but probably won’t even be able to get to eight-figure territory due to his modest starting point. Given the massive prices being paid for free agent starters this winter, Crochet’s situation gave him a huge amount of trade value.

In return for two years of Crochet’s services, Boston is giving up a massive prospect haul. Teel is the clear headliner, ranked by Baseball America as the #25 prospect in the sport and Boston’s third-best prospect behind only Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell, both of whom reports have suggested the club regards as untouchable. A left-handed hitting catcher, Teel was the 14th overall pick in the 2023 draft and hit an excellent .299/.390/.462 in 84 games at the Double-A level this year before earning a promotion to Triple-A. The youngster rates as a solid defender behind the plate who is expected to have no issues sticking behind the plate, and with his 23rd birthday coming up in February it’s not hard to imagine him taking over as the everyday catcher for the White Sox in Chicago sometime in 2025.

In addition to Teel, the Red Sox are also dealing 2024 first rounder Braden Montgomery. The 12th overall pick in this year’s draft, Montgomery is a switch-hitting outfielder who has yet to make his pro debut but slashed .322/.454/.733 in 295 trips to the plate for Texas A&M this year. BA ranks Montgomery as the #59 prospect in baseball while MLB Pipeline ranks him as the #54 prospect in the sport, noting that he offers plus power and double-plus arm strength that should make him a good fit for right field. Meidroth and Gonzalez, meanwhile, are not considered top-100 prospects in the sport but are nonetheless well-regarded within Boston’s system. Per Pipeline, they ranked as Boston’s #11 and #14 prospects prior to the trade.

Meidroth was the club’s fourth-rounder in the 2022 draft and looked good in 122 games at Triple-A this year with a .293/.437/.401 slash line. The 23-year-old offers little power and profiles best as a second baseman in the majors but also has experience at third base and shortstop. Like Teel, he could impact the White Sox as soon as this year. Gonzalez, meanwhile, signed with the Red Sox out of Venezuela and made his pro debut back in 2019. He split his time between the rotation and bullpen at the Double-A level in 2024, posting a 4.73 ERA in 83 2/3 innings of work. His solid 25.6% strikeout rate at the level was overshadowed by a 12.8% walk rate. It’s possible Gonzalez could make an impact at the big league level out of the bullpen in the near-term, but given Chicago’s lengthy timeline for a return to contention it would hardly be a surprise to see the club opt to develop the 22-year-old carefully with an eye towards a future in the big league rotation.

With Crochet now in the fold, the Red Sox have checked the biggest box off of their offseason to-do list by adding a premium talent to the front of their rotation. What’s unclear, however, is the club’s next steps. Rumors percolated earlier this winter that the club may pursue multiple top-level pitching additions, and given the fact that the club reportedly prepared a formal offer for top free agent starter Corbin Burnes last night such an addition can’t necessarily be ruled out. A lower-level addition to supplement the rotation appears more likely at this point, however, given recent reporting expressing skepticism regarding Boston’s odds of landing Burnes. A reunion with Nick Pivetta or a pursuit of Walker Buehler have been floated as possible alternative free agent targets for the Red Sox and could allow the club to further build out depth for a rotation that currently projects to see Crochet joined by Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, and Lucas Giolito next year.

Aside from bolstering the rotation, the Red Sox still figure to explore the market for a right-handed addition to their lineup. Teoscar Hernandez and Alex Bregman have both received buzz as potential targets for Boston, with Hernandez theoretically joining a crowded outfield mix as a replacement for Tyler O’Neill while Bregman would slot into the club’s lineup as the everyday second baseman barring a decision to move Rafael Devers off third base. Now that Teel is headed for Chicago, bolstering the club’s depth behind the plate seems likely and finding a back-up such as James McCann to pair with Connor Wong could be a priority for the club.

Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe (X link) first reported that the Red Sox were about to acquire Crochet with Teel going the other way. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (X link) first reported the other names in the deal.

Phillies Reportedly Among Teams Interested In Patrick Sandoval

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According to Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci, the Phillies have expressed interest in signing free agent starter Patrick Sandoval. Verducci also notes the Phillies aren’t alone in considering the left-hander, though he does not name any other teams that might have checked in.

Sandoval, 28, was somewhat surprisingly non-tendered by the Angels earlier this offseason. The southpaw was projected to earn $5.9MM next year in his second season of arbitration eligibility. The Angels seemingly decided that was too much to pay for an arm who will not pitch for most (if not all) of the 2025 campaign; he underwent Tommy John surgery this past June. However, if Sandoval cannot pitch in 2025, he’d likely earn an identical $5.9MM salary in 2026. That’s a total of $11.8MM over both seasons. If he comes back healthy in 2026 and pitches anything like he has over the past four years, $11.8MM would still be an excellent value for his services.

From 2021-24, Sandoval threw 460 innings for the Angels, pitching to a 3.80 ERA and 4.35 SIERA. His 5.08 ERA over 16 starts in 2024 was unsightly, but his 4.26 SIERA suggests he was the victim of some bad luck, as does his high BABIP (.341) and low strand rate (66.2%). According to FanGraphs, Sandoval has been worth 8.8 Wins Above Replacement over the last four seasons, including 1.2 WAR in 16 starts this past year. That’s an average of 2.9 WAR per 150 innings pitched. That kind of production goes for much more than $11.8MM on the open market.

Nevertheless, the Angels decided not to commit themselves to Sandoval, freeing him up to sign elsewhere as a free agent. He is likely looking for a backloaded two-year pact that would allow him to rehab with his new team in 2025 and hopefully pitch a full, healthy season in 2026. A good comparison is the two-year, $22MM contract Tyler Mahle signed with the Rangers last winter. He earned $5.5MM in the first year of the deal and will earn $16.5MM in the second. Like Sandoval, Mahle was rehabbing from Tommy John and unlikely to pitch for most of 2024. What’s more, Mahle had thrown 503 2/3 innings with a 4.22 ERA and 3.93 SIERA in the five seasons preceding his TJS, very similar numbers to Sandoval’s. Mahle had his surgery a month and a half earlier in the season than Sandoval did – early May as opposed to late June – which meant he was more likely to pitch in at least part of the first year of his deal. That might have given Mahle slightly more earning potential than Sandoval has right now. Still, it’s a useful point of comparison to estimate Sandoval’s value on the open market.

It’s easy to see why the Phillies would like the idea of a backloaded contract that keeps costs low next season. Their projected payroll for 2025 (per RosterResource) is currently $271MM, more than $20MM higher than last year’s final tally. However, they have several contracts coming off the books next winter. J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber, Jordan Romano, and Ranger Suárez will be free agents after this coming season, potentially freeing up more than $60MM in payroll. That would make it easier for Philadelphia to pay Sandoval a higher salary in the second year of his theoretical deal.

Speaking of Suárez, the Phillies could be eyeing Sandoval as a potential replacement if the former leaves in free agency before the 2026 campaign. Like Suárez, Sandoval is a left-hander with a deep arsenal of pitches. Suárez has been a key contributor for Philadelphia over the past four years, and he’s been slightly more productive than Sandoval. In 537 innings, he has a 3.27 ERA, 3.92 SIERA, and 11.2 fWAR. Yet, with Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Cristopher Sánchez already under contract for several more years and top prospect Andrew Painter nearing his debut, the Phillies might not be interested in keeping Suárez around long-term. Sandoval could represent an intriguing, and less expensive, alternative.

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