Archives for January 2025

We’re more than halfway through the offseason, and the context of the trade and free agent markets has changed wildly since the offseason began in early November. Just under half of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents have signed — with virtually every pitcher who came off the board topping (trouncing, in a few cases) expectations in what’s been a chaotic rush to add rotation help. We could theoretically re-rank the top remaining free agents based on how their earning power looks now, but such a list would generally consist of the same names up top and a bunch of one-year deal candidates at the bottom.

The trade market, on the other hand, is an entirely different story. Twenty percent of the players we listed at the beginning of the season have changed hands already — it’d be 23%, had Nolan Arenado not vetoed a trade to Houston — and at least a handful of the remaining names are still veritable locks to move. The offseason has already produced quite a few new trade candidates, as revelations about certain teams’ financial flexibility (or more specifically, their lack thereof) and certain players’ motivations have come to light.

For instance, the Cardinals would likely have welcomed the opportunity to trade Willson Contreras or Sonny Gray as they refocus on player development and look to scale back payroll … but both players somewhat surprisingly informed the club they’re not inclined to waive their no-trade rights despite that move away from a win-now mentality. Tampa Bay needed to scale back payroll but opted to deal from the rotation rather than move Yandy Diaz or Brandon Lowe, both of whom are now expected to stay put. The A’s might’ve thought harder about trading Brent Rooker had he rebuffed their extension overtures, but he put pen to paper on a five-year contract recently. Each was on the initial list, but clearly, they’re not going to be on the updated one.

Knowing what we know now, let’s revisit the trade market and run through some of the top names who could change hands between now and Opening Day:

1. Marcus Stroman

The Yankees might’ve been motivated to trade Stroman even before signing Max Fried, but their eight-year deal with the longtime Braves ace now gives New York a rotation of Fried, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt. Stroman, who’s owed $18MM in 2025, is their sixth-best starter. His contract also contains a conditional player option, which he’d unlock at 140 innings pitched. That’d guarantee him another $18MM if exercised. The Yankees are willing to pay down some of Stroman’s deal to facilitate a trade. The veteran righty is coming off a season in which he pitched 154 2/3 innings of 4.31 ERA ball with drops in velocity, strikeout rate and ground-ball rate. However, most of his troubles came at home (5.31 ERA). He pitched to a 3.09 ERA on the road and away from Yankee Stadium’s short right field porch.

2. Nolan Arenado

It’s hard to find a good fit for Arenado at this point. He already invoked his no-trade clause to veto a trade to the Astros. A lot of big-market clubs have set players at third base. Smaller-market teams aren’t thrilled about the three years and $74MM left on his contract ($10MM of which is being covered by the Rockies), and Arenado may be similarly wary of an up-and-coming club’s chances of contending long-term (e.g. Tigers, Royals). Katie Woo of The Athletic recently reported efforts to trade Arenado were at a standstill. The Red Sox are in the mix but have ample roadblocks on the current roster. St. Louis is clearly motivated to trade Arenado, but a deal is far from a given since he controls his own fate.

3. Dylan Cease

It may seem counterintuitive for the Padres to trade Cease just one year after acquiring him, but the Friars’ payroll situation has changed. San Diego is looking to trim spending as ownership has turned over from the late Peter Seidler to his siblings. San Diego uncharacteristically hasn’t made a single signing or trade this winter despite need in left field, in the rotation, on the bench and at designated hitter. Trading Cease could bring back a controllable option for one of those positions while also shedding his $13.75MM salary — funds that could be reallocated to another of those needs. (MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently took a look at what Cease could command in a trade.) Cease is a free agent next winter. The Padres could make him a qualifying offer and receive draft compensation in 2026, but there are pressing needs to address right now and scant resources to find solutions.

4. Luis Arraez

The same factors that make Cease a trade candidate are largely applicable with Arraez. He’s a free agent next season. The three-time batting champ will earn $14MM in 2025. He’s not a strong defender, nor does he hit for power or run well, but Arraez makes contact at an elite rate and is probably the game’s best pure hitter. Moving him would create flexibility to spend on other areas and perhaps bring back some MLB help at another position.

5. Luis Castillo

The Mariners don’t want to trade from their excellent rotation, but they’re working on a tight budget with around $10-12MM of funds remaining after signing Donovan Solano. They’ve wanted multiple infielders all winter and have thus far only added Solano — a part-time bat who’ll platoon with Luke Raley at first while seeing occasional reps at third base and second base as well. Dealing Castillo and the remaining three years and $68.75MM on his contract would give the M’s plenty of resources with which to work, but it may be too little, too late when it comes to reallocating those savings to an impactful hitter. Alex Bregman and Nolan Arenado remain available, but a number of the options have dwindled. Moving Castillo for major league talent might be difficult — a contender interested in Castillo would be less interested in weakening itself by dealing from elsewhere on the MLB roster — but if the Mariners can find a partner they’d be looking at $30MM+ in available funds to spend on an infielder and a rotation replacement.

6. Jordan Montgomery

Montgomery isn’t a bad rebound candidate after a season in which he missed all of spring training due to signing late and subsequently dealt with a knee injury. He ultimately posted a 6.23 ERA in 18 starts. Prior to that, Montgomery pitched 524 1/3 innings of 3.48 ERA ball with solid strikeout/walk/ground-ball rates from 2021-23. He’s being paid $22.5MM this season after exercising a player option. The Snakes would’ve tried to move him anyway, but after their shock signing of Corbin Burnes on a six-year deal, Arizona’s staff is deep enough that Montgomery is probably the No. 7 starter behind Burnes, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson. The D-backs still want a closer and already have a club-record payroll projection ($194MM). Shedding some of the Montgomery deal could help them add a finishing piece to the bullpen.

7. Christian Vazquez

The Twins signed Vazquez to a three-year, $30MM contract two offseasons ago, which generally fell in line with market expectation. However, what was originally an even timeshare with Ryan Jeffers quickly saw Jeffers overtake Vazquez for the lion’s share of playing time. Vazquez remains an elite defender but has just a .222/.265/.322 slash (63 wRC+) in his two seasons with Minnesota. The Twins aren’t going to be able to shed his entire $10MM, but they’re tight on payroll space and have added two catchers to the 40-man roster this winter in trades for Diego Cartaya and Mickey Gasper. Glove-only catchers can still command $4-5MM (see: Austin Hedges); the Twins could shed close to half the deal or perhaps take back an overpriced reliever in return.

8. Chris Paddack

On the other end of the Twins’ trade spectrum, Paddack’s $7.5MM salary seems reasonable, given the soaring price of open-market starting pitching. He’s a free agent at season’s end and posted a lackluster 4.99 ERA in 88 1/3 innings this past season, but that was his first full year back from a second Tommy John surgery. Paddack fanned 20.6% of opponents with a 10.7% swinging-strike rate and terrific 5.5% walk rate. He was too homer-prone but was also plagued by a .327 average on balls in play. There might not be a ton of surplus value, but there’s arguably a few million dollars worth — enough for the Twins to move the entire contract and command a modest return. They have a host of in-house options to slot in behind the top four of Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson in the event of a Paddack swap.

9. Spencer Torkelson

The former No. 1 overall pick was never supposed to be on a list like this, but the 25-year-old increasingly looks like a player without a concrete role on the Tigers. Detroit signed Gleyber Torres to play second base and, in doing so, announced that second baseman Colt Keith would move to first base, usurping Torkelson in the process. President of baseball ops Scott Harris has said he still sees a role for Torkelson’s right-handed bat on a Tigers squad that needs production against left-handed pitching, but “Tork” won’t have everyday at-bats at first base or at designated hitter available to him. (Corner outfielders Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene and Matt Vierling could all see time at DH — Carpenter in particular.) Harris also shot down the idea of Torkelson getting work at another position. Torkelson has effectively been relegated to a bench piece, so if another club is willing to buy low, a deal could make sense. However, he’s controllable for another four years, has an option remaining and isn’t arb-eligible yet; the Tigers won’t just give him away.

10. LaMonte Wade Jr.

The Giants have been looking for ways to add some punch to their lineup. Wade is a solid and affordable bat, earning $5MM in his final year of club control. He’s hit .248/.352/.415 in four seasons with San Francisco. But Wade doesn’t hit lefties well, lacks power against righties and is a plodding runner with seventh-percentile sprint speed, per Statcast. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle recently listed Wade as a possible trade piece, as the Giants continue to look for a bigger bat in the lineup. Clubs like the Astros, Yankees and Nats have already filled their first base needs, but others like the Reds or even Wade’s former Twins club could plausibly jump into the mix.

11. Steven Matz

The Cardinals entered the offseason hoping to trim payroll and create opportunity for younger players. No-trade clauses for Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray and the aforementioned Arenado have thrown a wrench into those plans. Contreras and Gray are staying put. Arenado isn’t making it easy on the Cardinals. If they need to pivot to other cost-saving measures, dumping a portion of Matz’s salary could make sense. The Cards have received some interest in him, despite a grisly 5.08 ERA in 44 1/3 innings last season. Matz is owed $12MM in 2025, the final season of his four-year deal with the Cards. He pitched 105 frames of 3.86 ERA ball with a 21.8% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate as recently as 2023. The 33-year-old’s contract probably isn’t that far north of what he’d earn in free agency. The Cardinals could spare themselves most of the tab if they’re willing to move him for a minimal return and reallocate those innings elsewhere.

12. Rhys Hoskins

When signing Hoskins to a two-year, $34MM deal with an opt-out last offseason, the Brewers probably hoped to get one season of vintage Hoskins, thank the slugger for his services, and make him a qualifying offer. For two months, the plan looked great. Hoskins, in his first year back from an ACL tear, hit .243/.345/.468 through the season’s first two months. He tanked thereafter, hitting .200/.282/.387 in his final 350 plate appearances. Milwaukee now owes Hoskins an $18MM salary and a $4MM buyout on a 2026 mutual option. It seems likely that commitment has handcuffed the baseball operations department’s efforts to add to the payroll this winter. If they can pay Hoskins down to the $6-8MM range, they might find a taker late in the offseason or in spring training after injuries pile up elsewhere in the league.

13. Alec Bohm

The Phillies have maintained that they’re not shopping Bohm and have held a high asking price on him in trade talks, but they’ve spoken to enough clubs about him that it seems fair to presume they’re more open to it than they’ve publicly let on. The efforts to deal Bohm were largely tied to reshaping an offense that has at times become redundant and stagnant. Rumblings on Bohm have cooled, and in the meantime the Phils have signed Max Kepler and traded for Jesus Luzardo. That probably represents the bulk of their offseason dealings, but president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski rarely idles. As other teams begin to incur injuries this spring, it remains possible that Bohm could yet find himself playing elsewhere — at least, if the Phils are willing to stop seeking controllable young starters with more control than Bohm has left in return for the third baseman. He’ll be paid $7.7MM this coming season and is under club control through 2026.

14. Triston Casas

Casas, 25 tomorrow, has hit .256/.357/.480 over the past two seasons, popping 37 homers in just 745 plate appearances. That would seem to make him a key piece of the future, but his name has at least surfaced in trade chatter as Boston tried to pry some young pitching away from the Mariners. Rafael Devers’ shoddy glovework across the diamond has led to speculative scenarios wherein the Sox would move Devers to first base, sign/acquire a third base upgrade and trade Casas for pitching. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow would probably at least listen to proposals along those lines — Boston has been heavily linked to both Arenado and Bregman — but at a certain point it’s worth asking how much they’re actually improving. Casas has game-changing power and handles lefties well enough that he doesn’t need to be in a strict platoon. He’s a valuable and controllable player in his own right, as he’ll be arb-eligible through 2028.

15. Erick Fedde

Fedde should be higher on this list. Heck, he should’ve already been traded. The Cardinals announced to begin the offseason that they were going to step back and focus on player development. They’ve been trying to trade Arenado for months, to no avail. Their payroll isn’t down as low as ownership would like, it would seem. Beyond that, the step toward a youth movement seems to strongly eliminate the chances of the Cards contending. Fedde is being paid a bargain $7.5MM and is a free agent at season’s end. If the Cardinals are trying to contend, they should add around players like this. If they’re trying to step back and focus on development, Fedde should be shopped for prospect help since he’ll be gone next winter and isn’t a guarantee to remain healthy/productive until the deadline. As Anthony Franco recently wrote, the St. Louis offseason has been a half measure, and not a very productive one at that.

16. Ryan Helsley

All of the Fedde points made above apply here — and then some. Helsley is a dominant closer earning an affordable $8.2MM salary — the type of player every single contender would love to get its hands on. The Cardinals, a team that won 83 games last year and has not meaningfully added to the roster, could fetch a sizable return for him. Trading him prior to the season gives his new club the chance to make a qualifying offer at season’s end, thus increasing his trade value. (Ditto Fedde, for that matter.) Yet all reports out of St. Louis have suggested the Cards plan to hold onto Helsley and Fedde. If the Cardinals want to back their way into Wild Card contention, they should be trying to add to the roster. If they want to retool, they should be shopping short-term assets. Holding Helsley until the deadline lowers his trade value and creates the risk of an injury or downturn in performance. Relievers are baseball’s most fickle asset. The Cardinals seem caught in the middle. It’s perplexing.

17. Camilo Doval

Doval lost his closer job late in the 2024 season. His walk rate spiked from 9.3% in 2023 to 14.4% in 2024. His ERA accordingly erupted from 2.93 to 4.88. Doval still averages better than 99 mph on his cutter, however, and misses bats in droves. He fanned 28.8% of his opponents even in a down ’24 showing and recorded a massive 14.5% swinging-strike rate that largely mirrored his 2023 levels (14.8%). Doval is earning $4.525MM this season and is controllable for three years. Teams are often loath to sell low on this type of power arm, but Slusser reported in that same previously mentioned piece that Doval has drawn interest from clubs looking for a closer. The Giants could move him and justifiably ask for MLB talent in return.

18. Ryan Pressly

The Astros already shook up the roster with a trade of Kyle Tucker to the Cubs, netting third baseman Isaac Paredes, righty Hayden Wesneski and top infield prospect Cam Smith. Trading Tucker, who’s in line for the type of mega-deal owner Jim Crane has eschewed throughout his tenure, paved the way for Houston to sign Christian Walker on a three-year deal. They’re now sitting just over the luxury tax line — a threshold Crane would quite likely to duck beneath. Houston has shopped Pressly and his $14MM salary this winter, but his no-trade clause is a notable roadblock. Few relievers have a lengthier or better track record, though. Houston could instead try to move outfielder Chas McCormick, backup catcher Victor Caratini or utilityman Mauricio Dubon if Crane mandates a drop below the CBT line, but Pressly presents the largest savings and could even give the Astros enough breathing room to make a subsequent free agent addition at a lower rate … if he’ll waive his no-trade provision, that is.

19. Starling Marte

The Mets reportedly told Marte they’d try to find a trade partner for him and have been willing to pay down a portion of his remaining year and $19.5MM for some time now. No deal has come to fruition. Once a fleet-footed threat to steal 40 bases per season, the now-36-year-old Marte’s average sprint speed fell below league-average in 2024, per Statcast. His range in the outfield ranked in the fifth percentile, though his arm strength checked into the 90th percentile. Marte hit .269/.327/.388 — about 4% better than average, per wRC+ — in 370 plate appearances. No one is taking on the full freight of his salary, but he could be swapped out for another underwater contract and/or the Mets could eat a large chunk of the deal to save at least some money and free up a roster spot. They’re in the top tier of luxury penalization, so every dollar they save is essentially doubled when accounting for tax purposes.

20. Robert Suarez

As noted with regard to Cease and Arraez, the Padres are aiming to scale back payroll. They’ve “entertained” offers on the 33-year-old Suarez (34 in March). A trade probably won’t be easy to put together. Suarez is earning $10MM this season and has a two-year, $16MM player option next winter. He has to exercise his 2026 and 2027 options simultaneously or else decline them and become a free agent. In essence, a trade partner knows that if Suarez pitches as hoped, he’s probably going to decline those options and reenter the market. If he performs poorly or suffers an injury, he’ll likely pick those options up, sticking his new team with two years of a mid-30s reliever it doesn’t really want. That’s not an ideal set of circumstances. Suarez is quite good, however. He pitched 65 innings of 2.77 ERA ball with a 22.9% strikeout rate, a terrific 6.2% walk rate and a 41.8% grounder rate. His 99.1 mph average heater and sharp 12.5% swinging-strike rate suggest there could be a few more punchouts in the tank (as we saw when he whiffed 32% of opponents as a rookie in 2022).

Others Considered: Willi Castro (Twins), Jon Gray (Rangers), Mike Yastrzemski (Giants), Brett Baty (Mets), Taylor Ward (Angels), Luis Robert Jr. (White Sox), Jake McCarthy/Alek Thomas (D-backs), Mitch Haniger/Mitch Garver (Mariners)