Which Top Prospects Could Be On 2026 Opening Day Rosters?
In the not-too-distant past, it was relatively rare for organizations to break camp with their very best prospects on the roster. It still happened at times, but MLB's service time structure was set up such that keeping a top prospect in the minors for even two weeks to begin the season effectively ensured that he'd be controllable for seven years rather than the standard six. There were obvious exceptions to this thinking -- Atlanta fans surely remember Jason Heyward breaking camp as a 20-year-old and belting a three-run homer on Opening Day -- but there were far more cases of keeping a player in the minors to buy the extra year. Kris Bryant, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer and others were all called to the majors just when they'd spent enough time in the minors to give their clubs an extra year of control. There was nothing inherently nefarious about the gambit; teams were operating within the collectively bargained rules and making business decisions.
The 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement sought to implement some real incentives for teams to bring their best players north to begin the season, however, and by and large they've been effective. With the Prospect Promotion Incentives (PPI), any prospect who appears on two recognized top-100 lists and is called up early enough to earn a full service year can net his team a bonus draft pick, either in that season's Rookie of the Year voting or in MVP/Cy Young voting over the next three seasons.
There's also a disincentive to holding a player down. For those same qualified top prospects, a top-two finish in either league's Rookie of the Year voting will net a full year of major league service time, regardless of when they were called up. Said prospects still have around 90% of a season in such instances, which is more than enough time to turn in a ROY-worthy performance.
Teams now know that holding a player down for 15 days or so might lead to him getting a full year of service anyhow and comes with the disadvantage of rendering that player ineligible for future PPI picks. As such, it's become increasingly common for touted prospects to break camp on their teams' rosters.
With that in mind, and with fewer than two weeks to go until Opening Day, it seems worth running through a slate of top prospects who could factor into their teams' Opening Day plans.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
José Berríos Visiting Specialist Due To Elbow Inflammation
Blue Jays righty José Berríos was slated to join Puerto Rico for the quarterfinal round of the World Baseball Classic, but those plans were called off when his tournament physical revealed a bout of elbow inflammation (via MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson). An MRI did not reveal any structural damage, but the inflammation was still curious, given that Berríos hasn’t experienced any discomfort. Still, in light of the unexpected diagnosis, he’s headed for an in-person visit with Dr. Keith Meister to take a closer look, per Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet. That visit will come next Tuesday. Berríos will not throw in the interim.
At present, there’s no indication that Berríos is dealing with a major injury — or even a minor one of all that much note. The 31-year-old veteran (32 in May) ostensibly hasn’t experienced any pain, and it’s possible a clean bill of health will have him back on the mound in short order.
Toronto’s offseason dealings have left the veteran Berríos in an uncertain state. He’s been a starter every year of his major league career — one of the most durable and consistent of the past decade. Dating back to 2018, he leads Major League Baseball in both games started (234) and innings pitched (1367 2/3). Berrios started a full slate of 12 games during the shortened 2020 season and has started 30 or more games in each other season dating back to 2018.
Despite that durability, Berríos has largely been pushed out of the Jays’ rotation. Shane Bieber exercised his $16MM player option to begin the offseason. Toronto then signed Dylan Cease to a seven-year contract and KBO returnee Cody Ponce to a three-year deal. Max Scherzer signed a one-year deal earlier this month.
Toronto’s rotation mix entering the season includes Cease, Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Bieber, Berríos, Ponce, Scherzer and Eric Lauer. They’re eight deep in terms of quality big leaguers, with only last year’s breakout rookie and postseason hero, Yesavage, able to be optioned. Clearly, he’s not going to be sent down anytime soon.
Injuries tend to alleviate this sort of crunch in the short-term, but that isn’t necessarily the case here. Bieber is behind schedule due to forearm fatigue but has been throwing recently. A season-opening stint on the 15-day IL still seems likely, but it probably won’t keep him out long. Each of Cease, Gausman, Yesavage, Ponce, Lauer and Scherzer appears healthy. The Jays had suggested they’d be deliberate in building Scherzer up slowly, but he tossed four sharp innings in his first spring start.
However it shakes out, Berríos is in an odd spot. Barring a major injury, he’ll be on a crowded pitching staff that doesn’t have a clear rotation spot for him. He’s coming off one of his weaker seasons but was still plenty serviceable last year. In 166 innings, he posted a 4.17 ERA, 19.8% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate. The right-hander’s 93 mph average four-seamer was a career-low, and his 92.2 mph average sinker was the second-lowest of his career. That walk rate, while solid, was the second-highest of his career in a full season and a notable step up from the 6.7% he’d logged from 2017-24.
There was some thought that perhaps the Jays would look to trade Berríos this winter, but that’s not an easy undertaking. He’s entering the fifth season of a seven-year extension. Berríos is still owed $66MM over the next three years, which is surely more than he’d have received in free agency this winter. His contract also contains an opt-out clause after the 2026 campaign, so even if a team believed Berrios to be a prominent bounceback candidate and was proven right with a vintage 2026 showing, he’d likely then trigger the out clause and head back into free agency.
Berríos’ $131MM contract also includes a limited, eight-team no-trade clause. That clause will be rendered moot 128 days into the season, when he reaches 10 years of major league service and receives 10-and-5 rights. The 10-and-5 provision — 10 years of major league service, the past five with the same team — grants any player full veto power over trade scenarios.
For now, Berríos’ status is in limbo because of his own health. If he requires an IL stint to begin the season, he’ll (likely) join Bieber there. Toronto could open with a rotation headed by Cease, Gausman, Yesavage, Ponce and Scherzer, with Lauer in a swing role. It’s possible that the Jays simply won’t simultaneously have all eight starters healthy at any point this season. In that scenario, they’d be glad to have the depth. But if Berríos and Bieber are cleared to return in early-to-mid April, Toronto is going to have some tougher choices ahead.
Lauer has taken a team-first approach, praising the tightknit group of rotation options and saying he’ll pitch in whatever role he’s asked — but he’s also conceded that he’d prefer to start, all else being equal. He’s a free agent at season’s end, after all, and working as a starter is his best path to maximizing his earning power. That situation, combined with forthcoming updates on Berríos and Bieber, make the Jays’ rotation group a particularly interesting one to watch in the final couple weeks of camp.
Front Office Subscriber Chat With Anthony Franco
Anthony Franco
- Good afternoon, hope you've all enjoyed your week!
- Less than two weeks from Opening Day! Let's get rolling
Fake Jim Bouton
- Seem to me the Yankees should start the season with Carlos Lagrange in the bullpen - why waste those bullets in the minors? Any reason not to?
Anthony Franco
- I assume they'll start him in Triple-A to try to keep open the long-term possibility that he can start but given how far the control would need to come, I'd be pretty tempted to just throw him in the MLB bullpen as well
- Some of it comes down to how you feel about Cade Winquest, I guess. Tough to carry both of those guys in lower-leverage roles, at least to start the season. Obviously Winquest would need to be offered back to St. Louis if they don't hold him, whereas Lagrange could open in the minors without occupying a 40-man spot and buy them a little more time on the Rule 5 decision
Lysol
- Do you think Casas will be productive for the sox in 2026? Or with Contreras do you think they will trade him?
Anthony Franco
- I feel like a deadline trade is ideal for everyone, needs to get healthy first before that's really an option. Nationals fit is easy with the Toboni connection but also the most sensible one since they've got nothing at first base and plenty of runway
Ben Cherrington
- Glad Tim was able to exonerate me in my inability to decision not to trade for a 3B in this week’s mailbag!
Anthony Franco
- Haha here's Tim's much lengthier breakdown on Pittsburgh's third base situation that this question is referencing
- https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/03/mlb-mailbag-pirates-shortstops-...
- I don't entirely agree with him -- would consider Abrams a pretty clear upgrade over Triolo, for instance -- but I'm also generally alright with them using Triolo as a low-end regular for a while given how many other moves they made offensively
- Will say that if the cost on Donovan was something like Barco, Termarr and Triolo (which Tim loosely floated as a comp to the package they got back from Seattle, not saying St. Louis definitely would've done it), I'd have easily jumped on that if I were the Bucs
Black and Gold
- With the Pirates starting 4 pretty much set in clay. (Skenes, Kellar, Chandler, Ashcraft) Who is the front runner for the 5th spot?
Anthony Franco
- Urquidy needs to be on the MLB roster so I imagine he's pretty well locked in there, at least for a few starts
- If he's carrying a 7.00 ERA with a bunch of homers in the middle of May, they can pull the plug and go to Barco or Harrington
Idiotic Failson
- Any chance we see a breakout from Masyn Wynn this year? He's gotten some games under his belt and used to have a 60 hit tool projection
Anthony Franco
- He's not far off being a 60 bat if you view the hit tool as putting the ball in play and hitting for average. Bigger issue is that it's not all that valuable (at least offensively) when it comes with minimal walks or power
- I do think there's a little more in there than he's shown though. He should be getting to double digit home run totals with 30 doubles annually. Approach is good enough that I'll take the over on his career 6.5% walk rate moving forward. Could see his 2024 numbers being the baseline into his mid-late 20s, which is a really good player when you're a top three defensive shortstop
- Also think some of the slugging can play up just from him being more aggressive when he's fully past the knee issue. He didn't hit any triples last year, which I have to imagine is driven largely by playing through a meniscus injury given the athlete he is. Turning a handful of doubles into triples over the course of the season can juice the slug by a few points without any change in the batter's box
Guest
- Is it my imagination or is Detroit stashing shortstops? 6 of their top 30 players are shortstops starting with McGonigle. I understand that if you play short you’re probably athletic enough to play elsewhere. Can’t play them all at short so do they trade some for pitching?
Still an A
- Does Kevin McGonigle make the Tigers opening day roster?
-
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
BENEFITS- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Fantasy Baseball Subscriber Chat With Nicklaus Gaut
Nicklaus Gaut will be talking fantasy baseball with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers today at 1 pm Central time. Get your question in early or participate in the live event at the link below!
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Rays Acquire Matthew Hoskins As PTBNL In Kameron Misner Trade
The Rays announced that they have acquired right-hander Matthew Hoskins from the Royals as the player to be named later in the Kameron Misner trade. Tampa flipped Misner to Kansas City for cash or a PTBNL in November. Hoskins wasn’t on the Royals’ 40-man roster, so no corresponding move is required.
Hoskins, 22, was just selected in the 12th round of the 2025 draft. The Royals didn’t have him pitch in affiliated ball after signing him, so he still hasn’t made his professional debut. He had spent the previous three years pitching for the University of Georgia. He gave the Bulldogs 50 2/3 innings with a 6.22 earned run average. His 27.6% strikeout rate was strong but he walked 40 of the 243 batters he faced, a 16.5% clip. He also hit 16 batters and threw six wild pitches.
Baseball America ranked Hoskins the #496 player available in the draft. Given his college numbers, they unsurprisingly noted that he will require some polish and is likely to be a reliever in the long term. But they highlighted that his fastball sits in the upper 90s and can touch triple digits. His slider is his best secondary pitch and he also throws a changeup. The Rays are seemingly betting on the raw stuff and will take on Hoskins as a long-term project.
Photo courtesy of Rich Storry, Imagn Images
Rangers Designate Alexis Díaz For Assignment
The Rangers announced Friday that right-hander Alexis Díaz has been designated for assignment. His spot on the roster goes to veteran lefty Jalen Beeks, whose previously reported one-year contract with Texas is now official.
Díaz, 29, signed a major league contract of his own with the Rangers earlier in the winter. The former Reds All-Star is being paid $1MM this year but has struggled immensely in spring training after a discouraging 2025 showing. Díaz has appeared in three official spring games and walked four of the 13 hitters he’s faced. He’s plunked another. Considering he walked 14.1% of his opponents in the majors last year and more than 16% of his Triple-A opponents, continued command problems of this magnitude stand as a notable red flag.
It’s possible that for the Rangers, attempting to pass Díaz through waivers at some point was the plan all along. It’s become increasingly common for teams to sign free agents who have fewer than five years of service time to major league contracts with modest salaries and then pass them through waivers. (Díaz has 3.088 years of service.) Those players aren’t able to retain the remainder of their guaranteed salary upon rejecting an outright assignment. If Díaz goes unclaimed — which seems likely given last year’s struggles and his poor command this spring — he’ll very likely accept an outright assignment and give the Rangers some depth and a reclamation project with which to work at the Triple-A level.
Early in his career, Díaz looked to be following in the footsteps of older brother Edwin Díaz in a march to stardom. He finished fifth in 2022 NL Rookie of the Year voting after pitching 63 2/3 innings with a 3.07 ERA, 10 saves, 13 holds and a gaudy 32.5% strikeout rate. His 12.9% walk rate was an eyesore, but Díaz offset the free passes with a glut of strikeouts. His velocity and strikeout rate have dipped in each subsequent season, however, and Díaz’s struggles reached a tipping point last year.
The Reds optioned Díaz to Triple-A on May 1 after he was rocked for eight runs in his first six innings (during which he walked five men and hit another two). Four weeks later, he was traded to the Dodgers. Los Angeles called him up mid-July and gave him nine innings, during which he was tagged for five more runs. Díaz was designated for assignment in early September and claimed by the Braves, who gave him another 2 2/3 innings during which he served up three more runs. Díaz finished the season with an 8.15 ERA in 17 2/3 big league innings. He logged a 5.61 ERA in 25 1/3 Triple-A frames.
Díaz is a recognizable name with plenty of track record, but at this point he’s more than two full years removed from his last campaign as a high-end reliever (2023). The Rangers can spend the next five days trying to trade him before he has to be put on waivers, though he can be waived at any point in the interim as well. Any team that claims Díaz would be on the hook for that $1MM salary. As previously noted, if Díaz passes through waivers unclaimed, he’ll surely remain in the organization by accepting an outright assignment, as rejecting would mean forfeiting that $1MM guarantee.
Rangers, Jalen Beeks Agree To Major League Deal
March 13: The Rangers formally announced their signing of Beeks. Texas designated Díaz for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot.
March 12: The Rangers are in agreement with lefty reliever Jalen Beeks on a major league contract, reports Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News. The signing is pending a physical. Texas will need to create a 40-man roster spot once the deal is final. Beeks is represented by Frontline.
Beeks finds a guaranteed contract just two weeks from the beginning of the regular season. The southpaw spent the 2025 campaign with the Diamondbacks on a $1.25MM contract. He made 61 appearances, working to a 3.77 earned run average across 57 1/3 innings. There’s a decent chance he would have been traded at the deadline if not for a three-week injured list stint in July due to lower back inflammation.
The 32-year-old wound up finishing the season as one of the rare veteran pieces in Arizona’s bullpen. He allowed only four runs across his final 16 1/3 innings. Beeks’ underlying marks were middle of the road. He had a slightly below-average 20.3% strikeout rate with decent but unexceptional walk and ground-ball marks.
Unlike a lot of lefty relievers, Beeks doesn’t have a great breaking ball. He only used his cutter around 10% of the time last year. Beeks works mostly with a 94-95 mph fastball and an upper 80s changeup that serves as his best swing-and-miss pitch. He doesn’t have extreme platoon splits as a result. Beeks allowed similar slash lines to left-handed (.218/.266/.345) and righty (.190/.285/.339) bats alike last year, though his strikeout rate was quite a bit higher when he had the platoon advantage.
Beeks will have a couple weeks to get ready for the start of the regular season. It’ll be a patched together Texas bullpen for a second straight year. Robert Garcia is their one high-leverage lefty. There’s a decent chance he gets some save opportunities. Tyler Alexander will pitch in a long relief role. Beeks isn’t a pure specialist but can take some left on left matchups in the middle innings.
Garcia, Chris Martin, Cole Winn, Jakob Junis, Beeks and Alexander all seem assured of Opening Day bullpen spots. Former Reds closer Alexis Díaz signed a one-year deal, but he’s been bombed for eight runs in 1 2/3 innings this spring. He still has a couple options remaining and is probably headed to Triple-A.
Rule 5 draftee Carter Baumler needs to stick on the MLB team or be waived and offered back to the Orioles. He has only surrendered one unearned run with a 4-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 5 2/3 frames. Minor league signees Ryan Brasier and Josh Sborz are also in camp. Sborz has had the much more impressive spring.
As Jeff Wilson of DLLS Sports observes, this may also tip the team’s hand on their rotation plans. Left-hander Jacob Latz will be on the big league roster in some capacity. Latz pitched mostly in relief last year but is competing with Kumar Rocker for the fifth starter job. Rocker has the higher pedigree, but Latz was the better pitcher in 2025. There hasn’t been a huge divide between the two this spring.
If the Rangers keep Rocker as the fifth starter, they’d have four left-handers in their projected Opening Day bullpen. Most teams prefer to carry two or three lefty relievers. That could point to Latz having the upper hand in the rotation competition and Rocker beginning the season in Triple-A.
Image courtesy of Rob Schumacher, Imagn Images.
A’s Notes: Muncy, Gelof, Hoglund
The A’s entered spring training without a set option at third base, but 23-year-old Max Muncy has begun to separate himself from the pack, writes Martin Gallegos of MLB.com. There’s no shortage of coincidence in the A’s finding themselves with a hit-over-glove prospect named Max Muncy at third base for the second time in the past decade, but the hope now is that the younger Muncy (no relation to the older) can solidify the hot corner.
A first-round pick back in 2021, the now-23-year-old Muncy hit .325/.397/.504 in Triple-A last season. He struggled badly in 220 major league plate appearances but had a productive stint in the Arizona Fall League and is absolutely mashing this spring: .419/.526/.839 with three homers and as many walks as strikeouts (seven) in 38 plate appearances. The question surrounding Muncy isn’t hit bat but whether he can handle third base from a defensive standpoint.
“Our biggest focus right now is on the defense,” manager Mark Kotsay tells Gallegos. “We’ve been working really hard with him in those areas, and we’ve seen some improvement. We’re going to continue to follow that progress.” Readers will want to check out Gallegos’ piece in full, as he also chats with Muncy extensively about some of the swing/approach changes he implemented in the Fall League and about the challenges of transitioning from shortstop to third base (a move that’s often taken for granted).
Meanwhile, another formerly touted young Athletics infielder, Zack Gelof, made his Cactus League debut this week, writes Courtney Hollmon of MLB.com. Gelof went 2-for-4 with a double in his first game action since suffering a dislocated shoulder on a diving play at second base last year. That injury ended his season, but Gelof’s 2025 campaign never really got off the ground thanks to a hamate fracture and a stress fracture in his ribcage. He played in only 30 games with 101 plate appearances last season, slashing just .174/.230/.272.
It’s easy to write off the 2025 campaign as one ruined by injury, but Gelof already faced some questions this time last year. Was he the dynamic rookie we saw in 2023, when he hit .267/.337/.504 with 14 homers and 14 steals in only 60 games, or was he the lesser version of that player we saw in 2024, when he hit .211/.270/.362 with 17 homers, 25 steals and a sky-high 34.4% strikeout rate?
Gelof, still just 26 years old, is hoping to get back to that 2023 form but now has a less certain role on the club. The A’s acquired Jeff McNeil from the Mets this offseason and are plugging him in at second base. Muncy is the front-runner over at third base, a position Gelof hasn’t played since 2022. The former second-round pick tells Hollomon that he’s been working out both in the infield and in the outfield as he hopes to improve his versatility and win a spot back on the roster. Gelof still has a pair of minor league option years remaining, so he could open the season in Triple-A if the A’s want to get him more exposure at multiple positions in the upper minors.
Elsewhere in A’s camp, there’s more unwelcome news on oft-injured righty Gunnar Hoglund. The 26-year-old righty, who headlined the Athletics’ return in the trade sending Matt Chapman to Toronto, made his big league debut last season but pitched just 12 games between Triple-A and the majors. He was recovering from Tommy John surgery at the time of the trade and missed the final three months last year due to a hip impingement.
This spring, Hoglund has been dogged by a knee injury early in camp. He’s now also dealing with a back issue, per Gallegos. Hoglund hasn’t gotten into a spring game yet and doesn’t appear likely to do so before the season opens. He was likely bound for Triple-A even if healthy, but another pair of injuries is disheartening for the 2021 first-rounder (selected six picks ahead of Muncy and 41 ahead of Gelof).
Hoglund pitched well in Triple-A last season and enjoyed two terrific starts to begin his MLB career (11 1/3 innings with three runs on 11 hits and one walk alongside 10 strikeouts). He was rocked for 20 runs over his next 21 frames, however, including an eight-run drubbing at the hands of the Blue Jays before landing on the injured list for the remainder of the season.
Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays are always trying to walk a fine line between prioritizing the present and the future. Currently, they have even more future uncertainty than usual, but that didn’t stop them from constantly tinkering with the roster. They made over a dozen trades, including three separate three-team deals, while also working the waiver wire and signing a few free agents.
Major League Signings
- LHP Steven Matz: Two years, $15MM
- RHP Nick Martinez: One year, $13MM (includes $4MM buyout on $20MM mutual option for 2027)
- OF Cedric Mullins: One year, $7MM (includes $500K buyout on $10MM mutual option for 2027)
- OF Jake Fraley: One year, $3MM
2026 spending: $30.5MM
Total spending: $38MM
Trades and Claims
- Acquired OF Ryan Vilade from Reds for cash considerations
- Traded RHP Joey Gerber to Mets for cash considerations
- Traded RHP Cole Wilcox to Mariners for cash considerations
- Claimed OF Jake Fraley from Braves (later non-tendered and re-signed)
- Traded OF Kameron Misner to Royals for cash considerations
- Acquired RHP Luis Guerrero from Red Sox for IF Tristan Gray
- Acquired RHP Jacob Kisting from Twins for RHP Eric Orze
- Acquired RHP Steven Wilson and RHP Yoendrys Gómez from White Sox for OF Everson Pereira and IF Tanner Murray
- Acquired RHP Tommy McCollum from Phillies for RHP Yoniel Curet
- Traded OF Tristan Peters to White Sox for cash considerations
- Claimed RHP Osvaldo Bido from Braves (later lost to Marlins via waivers)
- Acquired OF Slater de Brun, C Caden Bodine, RHP Michael Forret, OF Austin Overn and competitive balance round A draft pick from Orioles for RHP Shane Baz
- Acquired OF Jacob Melton and RHP Anderson Brito from Astros in three-team trade sending 2B Brandon Lowe, OF Jake Mangum and LHP Mason Montgomery to Pirates
- Acquired OF Justyn-Henry Malloy from Tigers for cash considerations
- Claimed IF Tsung-Che Cheng from Pirates (later lost to Mets via waivers)
- Acquired LHP Ken Waldichuk and IF Brett Wisely from Braves for cash considerations or a PTBNL (Waldichuk later lost to Nationals via waivers; Wisely traded back to Braves for cash)
- Acquired IF/OF Gavin Lux from Reds and RHP Chris Clark from Angels in three-team trade sending OF Josh Lowe to Angels
- Acquired IF Ben Williamson from Mariners in three-team trade sending OF Colton Ledbetter and competitive balance round B pick to Cardinals
- Acquired OF Víctor Mesa Jr. from Marlins for IF Angel Brachi
Option Decisions
- Team exercised $11.5MM option on 2B Brandon Lowe (later traded to Pirates)
- Team declined $11MM option on RHP Pete Fairbanks, opting for $1MM buyout
- Team exercised $2.45MM option on IF Taylor Walls (deal includes 2027 club option)
Notable Minor League Signings
Extensions
- None
Notable Losses
- Adrian Houser, Joey Gerber, Cole Wilcox, Garrett Acton (waivers), Caleb Boushley, Alex Faedo (still unsigned), Stuart Fairchild, Kameron Misner, Nate Lavender, Bob Seymour (released to sign in NPB), Tristan Gray, Forrest Whitley (released to sign in NPB), Eric Orze, Everson Pereira, Christopher Morel (non-tendered), Alexander Alberto (Rule 5 draft), Yoniel Curet, Tristan Peters, Shane Baz, Brandon Lowe, Jake Mangum, Mason Montgomery, Josh Lowe
The Rays generally run one of the lowest payrolls in the league. Despite that, they have found a decent amount of success over the years thanks to a strong player development system and an unsentimental approach to player retention. They usually strike a balance between fielding a strong big league team in the present while also keeping the future pipeline flowing.
It feels like the current moment in time is a bit more future-focused than usual. The Rays made the playoffs in five straight seasons from 2019 to 2023, but they dipped below .500 in the past two. At the 2025 trade deadline, they acted primarily as sellers. They picked up Adrian Houser and Griffin Jax but sent out Taj Bradley, Danny Jansen, Zack Littell and others.
Beyond the roster situation, there are plenty of other important factors at play. Due to hurricane damage, the team couldn’t play at Tropicana Field in 2025. They had to relocate to Steinbrenner Field, normally the home of the Tampa Tarpons, the Single-A affiliate of the Yankees. It’s also the spring training home for the Yankees, so it’s a decent facility, but it’s not huge. With the smaller capacity and the costs of moving for the year, the club’s finances were presumably not great last year.
The damage to The Trop also had domino effects. It scuttled a deal for a new stadium and ultimately contributed to the ouster of owner Stuart Sternberg. Late in 2025, Sternberg reached a deal to sell to a group led by real estate developer Patrick Zalupski. That deal didn’t become official until the end of the season.
The Rays appear to be on track to return to The Trop for the start of the 2026 campaign, but the plans beyond that are less certain. Their lease at that venue only runs through 2028. Zalupski and his group have plans to build a new stadium, as part of a mixed-use development, by the start of the 2029 season. However, it’s unclear if they can pull it off. They are hoping to get government funding to cover half the costs and it doesn’t appear they have strong support for that arrangement. Whispers of a potential move to Orlando can be heard from the corners, or sometimes the city is plainly evoked from a dais.
There’s also the Wander Franco situation lingering in the background. He is technically still owed millions through 2032 but hasn’t been paid in a while. Due to the sexual abuse allegations against him, Franco has been on the restricted list since 2024. It’s unlikely the Rays will have to pay him again, but the legal process is still playing out, so his contract is technically still on the books.
On top of all that, there’s the broadcast revenue situation. Like many clubs, the Rays have been hit hard by cord cutting. As of a few years ago, they were getting about $56MM annually from their regional sports network deal with Diamond Sports Group. That company, now known as Main Street Sports, appears to be circling the drain. The Rays were one of nine clubs to walk away from the company in January, and they’ll now be one of the teams letting MLB handle the broadcast side of things. That arrangement can help the club reach more fans via blackout-free local streaming but it leads to a worse revenue situation. Travis Sawchik of MLB.com says teams in this position only bring in about 50% of the previous RSN set-up.
Put it all together and it seems like the Rays aren’t as focused on near-term contention, but they never fully rebuild. Their 2025-26 offseason would somewhat resemble their 2025 trade deadline, as they leaned a bit more to the sell side but still looked to backfill what they sent out.
First up was the Pete Fairbanks decision. He had been a big part of the roster for many years but was in line for a big raise. He previously signed an extension with the Rays, a deal that paid him $3.67MM annually from 2023 to 2025. There was a $7MM club option for 2026, but Fairbanks through a series of escalators based on innings pitched and games finished, he pushed the option value up to $11MM — effectively triple what he was making before.
Despite the big jump, that still would have been a fair price for Fairbanks, but it seems the Rays didn’t want to pay it. They shopped around and seemed to get a bit of interest but not enough for them to pull the trigger on a deal. They bit the bullet and paid his $1MM buyout, sending him to free agency. He eventually secured a $13MM deal from the Marlins, so there was perhaps a bit of surplus value in his option, but not enough for any club to offer the Rays an enticing trade return in the first couple days of the offseason.
In the month of December, the buy/sell hybrid was on full display. Early in the month, they agreed to free agent deals with outfielder Cedric Mullins and left-hander Steven Matz. Shortly thereafter, they pulled off two big trades on the same day. On December 19th, they sent Shane Baz to the Orioles for four prospects and a draft pick. They also sent Brandon Lowe, Jake Mangum and Mason Montgomery to the Pirates in a three-team trade, getting prospects Jacob Melton and Anderson Brito from the Astros in return.
The two trades were clearly made with an eye on the future. Baz is 26 years old, turning 27 this year, and still has three years of club control remaining. He could have been a key cog in the rotation for the next few years. Perhaps the Rays felt the package was too good to pass up. Three of the four prospects they received were generally considered to be in Baltimore’s top 10-15 prospects before the deal, and the Rays got a draft pick as well.
It’s also possible they felt like selling high on Baz, in a sense. His 4.87 earned run average in 2025 was well below average, but it was easily his healthiest season. He was once one of the top pitching prospects in the sport but hasn’t been able to stay on the field due to injuries (including UCL surgery). Baz doubled his previous career highs in terms of both starts made and innings pitched. The Rays could hold him, hope for continued health and big gains in results — or cash him in now, when he was still something of an upside play. They cashed him in.
The Lowe trade was a classic and expected Rays move. Over the years, they have traded many core players just before they hit free agency. Since Lowe is slated for free agency after 2026, it wasn’t a shock to see him sent out the door.
Mangum and Montgomery were more controllable but perhaps not deemed core pieces. Mangum is a talented speed-and-defense outfielder with questionable offense. The Rays already have a few of those and seemingly felt Mangum was expendable. Montgomery is a reliever with exceptional stuff but significant control problems. Maybe he’ll click in Pittsburgh, but the Rays generally don’t have trouble finding good relievers. Parting with this group also netted Melton, who’s currently a top-100 prospect and could fill a long-term role in the outfield. He’s already made a brief (and rocky) MLB debut but hit .286/.389/.556 in Triple-A last season.
The Mullins signing effectively replaced some of the outfield depth lost by trading Mangum. The Rays had also flipped Kameron Misner, Everson Pereira and Tristan Peters in smaller deals earlier in the winter. Mullins is coming off a bit of a down year but was still a useful player, and his deal isn’t huge, as it essentially pays him like a second-year arbitration player.
Matz hasn’t been a full-time starter in a while but is coming off a good year of mostly relief work, as he posted a 3.05 ERA between the Cardinals and Red Sox. The Rays are going to try to stretch him back out, replacing some of the innings lost by trading Bradley and Baz, as well as Adrian Houser becoming a free agent.
The three-team Lowe trade left a hole at second base but the Rays addressed that in January… with another three-team Lowe trade. They sent Josh Lowe to the Angels in a swap that netted them Gavin Lux from the Reds. Lux was in a super utility role in 2025, playing the outfield more than the infield, but the Rays plan to plant him at the keystone. They believe the consistency will help him focus on getting the most out of his bat.
Josh Lowe seemed to have a breakout in 2023 but declined in the two seasons since, so the Rays are moving on as part of a larger outfield shake-up. Jake Fraley seems to have one spot. The Rays claimed him, non-tendered him and re-signed him in quick succession early in the offseason. Mullins will have a spot next to him. Chandler Simpson could have another. They also picked up Melton and could find space for him as the season rolls along. Smaller deals also netted Justyn-Henry Malloy, Ryan Vilade and Víctor Mesa Jr..
In February, the opportunity for yet another three-team trade came along. The Rays obviously cannot help themselves in this arena. Jon Becker of FanGraphs was among those to point out that the Rays have been involved in five of the past six three-team trades in MLB, the exception being the Tommy Edman/Erick Fedde/Miguel Vargas trade from 2024 involving the Dodgers, Cardinals and White Sox.
In Tampa’s third and final three-team trade of the winter, they were a minor player. The headliner was Brendan Donovan, who went from the Cardinals to the Mariners. The prospect talent went to St. Louis. But the Rays snuck in there to get infielder Ben Williamson from the Mariners while sending prospect Colton Ledbetter and a competitive balance round B draft pick (#72 overall) to the Cards.
Williamson hasn’t hit much but has received good grades for his third base defense. The Rays have Junior Caminero at the hot corner but his bat is better than his glove. Williamson could serve as a defensive replacement for him occasionally, and he has minor league experience at second and shortstop. He’ll give the Rays a right-handed bat who can provide some extra cover at those spots as well.
It’s a bit surprising that the Rays gave up a prospect and a pick to get a guy who seems like a utility player, but there’s also a logic to it. Ledbetter is a nice prospect but seems to be decent at most things without a standout tool. He may end up being a bench/depth piece somewhat similar to Williamson, as an outfielder, but not for a few years.
As for the pick, the Rays have shown a willingness to flip those for big leaguers, even if they’re not stars. They traded a pick last year for Bryan Baker, a good reliever but not an elite closer. “We’re drafting players, and the goal is to turn them into big leaguers,” president of baseball operations Erik Neander said to Adam Berry of MLB.com at the time of the Baker trade. “And this draft pick turned into a big leaguer very quickly.”
The Orioles used that pick they received for Baker to draft Slater de Brun … whom the Rays then acquired in the Baz deal. Tampa Bay also received a higher pick (#33 overall) in that trade, then flipped a competitive balance round B pick to the Cards in the Williamson/Donovan trade. In a sense, it’s emblematic of their overall approach. Buy here, sell there.
They capped off their winter with another free agent signing, getting Nick Martinez on a one-year deal worth $13MM. Martinez has been baseball’s preeminent swingman in recent years. Over the past four years, he has made 61 starts and 131 relief appearances, posting a 3.67 ERA in that time. He has been better as a reliever but serviceable as a starter. The Rays will begin the season using him in the rotation.
At the end of all the wheeling and dealing, the Rays go into 2026 with a rotation of unknowns. They subtracted Bradley and Baz in the past year but added Matz and Martinez. Ryan Pepiot is probably the guy with the least risk. Shane McClanahan has ace-caliber stuff and should be back after missing the past two seasons due to injury. Drew Rasmussen was healthy in 2025 but has a lengthy injury history. Martinez and Matz should have spots but could get pushed to the bullpen if other guys step up. Yoendrys Gómez, Ian Seymour, Joe Boyle, and Jesse Scholtens are all on the 40-man roster. Brody Hopkins is one of the club’s top prospects and he could push for a debut in 2026.
On the position player side of things, the Rays sent out a number of outfielders but also brought in a bunch. At second base, they subtracted Lowe and replaced him with Lux. In the process of all their moves, they added a lot of talent to the system, though whether they made the 2026 team better is debatable. Both the Projected Standings at FanGraphs and the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus project the Rays to finish last in a strong American League East.
Ultimately, it feels like a transition period for the franchise. The roster wasn’t bad but also wasn’t good enough in the past two years. They have a new owner and an uncertain future in terms of their stadium. The Franco deal may or may not come off the books at some point. Their broadcast revenue is up in the air. It’s a lot of uncertainty, but the front office seemed to operate in classic Rays fashion this offseason.
How would you grade the Rays' offseason?
Photo courtesy of Jim Rassol, Imagn Images
The Opener: World Baseball Classic, Berrios, Free Agency
Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into the weekend:
1. World Baseball Classic Quarterfinals:
The quarterfinals of the World Baseball Classic are underway, and two games are scheduled for this evening. At 6:30pm local time in Miami, Korea will face the Dominican Republic. Former big leaguer and All-Star Hyun Jin Ryu will be on the mound for Korea opposite Phillies southpaw Cristopher Sanchez. Ryu is less than two weeks from his 39th birthday but has remained very effective in the KBO over the years, including a 3.23 ERA in 26 starts for the Hanwha Eagles in 2025. He allowed a solo home run but no other damage in his last WBC start, with three strikeouts in his three innings of work. Sanchez, meanwhile, is coming off a career year for Philadelphia where the 29-year-old finished second in NL Cy Young award voting behind Paul Skenes. He posted a 2.50 ERA with a 2.55 FIP in 202 innings of work last year, but got shelled for three runs on six hits and a walk in 1 1/3 innings during his lone WBC start.
At 7:00pm local time in Houston, Team USA will be facing off against their neighbors to the north. Canada is sending right-hander Michael Soroka to the mound. He’s coming off a 4.52 ERA in 89 innings for the Nationals and Cubs last year. Soroka scattered four runs and a walk across his three innings of one-run ball during his last WBC start. Soroka’s opponent will be right-hander Logan Webb. The two-time All-Star finished fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting last year and struck out six in four innings of work during his last WBC start, allowing only a solo homer in terms of damage. The quarterfinals will continue tomorrow with matchups between Puerto Rico (Seth Lugo) and Italy (Pitcher TBA) as well as Venezuela (Ranger Suarez) against Samurai Japan (Yoshinobu Yamamoto).
2. Berrios battling elbow inflammation:
Blue Jays right-hander Jose Berrios was hoping to join the Puerto Rican team for that game against Italy, but those hopes have been dashed. MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson writes that Berrios underwent an MRI recently that revealed inflammation in his right elbow. While there’s no structural damage, he was nonetheless scratched from his start yesterday and the Blue Jays are now gathering additional information. It’s an unusual situation given that Berrios was seemingly not feeling any soreness in his elbow. The MRI was scheduled not due to issues on the right-hander’s end, but for insurance purposes ahead of his planned WBC appearance. It’s unclear if the news puts Opening Day in jeopardy for Berrios, who was already in danger of losing a spot in the Jays rotation at some point this year due to an influx of talent (Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce, and the emergence of top prospect Trey Yesavage).
3. Free agency moving for stragglers:
Yesterday saw a pair of left-handed relief arms come off the board with big league deals: the Red Sox landed southpaw Danny Coulombe on a $1MM guarantee yesterday, while the Rangers landed lefty Jalen Beeks on a major league contract of his own. The two lefties coming off the board were among the best bullpen options still available on a dwindling market. With just two weeks to go until Opening Day, only a small handful of players are still available. Outfielder Jesse Winker, infielder Wilmer Flores, right-hander Lucas Giolito, and first baseman Rowdy Tellez are among the more notable names still available on the market, with a large group of veteran starters (Marcus Stroman, Patrick Corbin, Tyler Anderson) and relievers (Justin Wilson, Jose Leclerc, Jorge Lopez) also still available.