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MLB Mailbag: Grayson Rodriguez-Taylor Ward Trade, Qualifying Offers, Duran, Abreu

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This week's mailbag gets into the Grayson Rodriguez-Taylor Ward trade, the four accepted qualifying offers, the trade value of Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu, and much more.

Nick asks:

Hi, what is Mike Elias thinking selling low on Grayson? Ward is a good, not great, hitter, and Rodriguez's ceiling is an ace. You guys have been calling for a Singer-Ward swap and I feel like 4 years of Rodriguez, even with his injuries, would have way more value than one year of Singer.

Zach asks:

For real, what's with trading Grayson Rodriguez?!?

In making this trade, Orioles president of baseball operations and GM Mike Elias made a big bet against Rodriguez.

When the Orioles drafted Rodriguez 11th overall out of high school in 2018, the club was a few months away from replacing Dan Duquette with Elias as the head of baseball operations.  So Elias wasn't involved with that pick, but he is intimately familiar with Rodriguez's career and health history.

Once one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, Rodriguez's injuries began with a 2022 Grade 2 lat strain that cost him three months and pushed back his expected Major League debut.  He was healthy in 2023, had some success in the Majors, and totaled 165 innings - the only time in his career he's topped 117 frames.

Rodriguez missed 19 days with shoulder inflammation in May 2024, and then saw his season end that year on July 31st due to what was initially called a mild lat strain.  No one could've guessed that quality start against the Blue Jays would close the book on Rodriguez's Orioles career before his 25th birthday.

The big righty supposedly entered 2025 without restrictions, and claimed he wasn't hurt when his velocity was down in spring training.  But in March he was diagnosed with elbow inflammation, compounded in April by another "mild lat strain."  It was initially thought Rodriguez would return in the second half, but he experienced elbow discomfort while rehabbing and was shut down.  After multiple opinions were gathered, Rodriguez's 2025 season ended with right elbow debridement surgery on August 11th.

As Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun reported, Elias described Rodriguez's health this way at the end of September: "There’s nothing medically to suggest that he won’t be ready, and he’s very determined and not happy about what happened last year."  Elias expressed some caution but ultimately said, "I am bullish on the situation."  The procedure involved removing bone chips from Rodriguez's elbow.

Rodriguez spoke to reporters yesterday.  Here's an excerpt from Jeff Fletcher of the OC Register:

"Rodriguez said he is “absolutely” confident that he can pitch a full season this year. He said the bone spurs had been an issue for “three or four years,” and he believes that they led to the lat injuries. “Just being able to get those out of there, my arm feels great right now throwing,” Rodriguez said. “There’s really no question for me to be ready for spring training.”"

I'm searching for an explanation why the pitching-needy Orioles would trade a pre-arbitration mid-rotation type starter with 238 2/3 pretty good big league innings to his name and four years of team control remaining for one year of what looks like, at best, a 2.5 WAR outfielder.

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Seven Arbitration Trade Possibilities

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MLBTR published our annual list of non-tender candidates last night. The Astros and Braves already swapped infielders in the Mauricio Dubón/Nick Allen trade with the NT deadline 24 hours away. That indicates both players will be tendered by their new teams but may not have been offered contracts by their original clubs (especially Dubón with Houston).

Essentially everyone who was included on the non-tender list could be a trade candidate. There are a few who are obviously not going to attract any interest at their projected price because of injuries or underperformance (e.g. Nathaniel Lowe, Evan Phillips). Teams could shop any of their more borderline candidates before tomorrow. The Rangers are doing so with Adolis García and Jonah Heim. The Astros would undoubtedly be open to moving on from Jesús Sánchez. Players like Ryan Mountcastle, Jonathan India and Luis García Jr. seem likelier than not to be cut loose if no trade comes together.

They're not the only somewhat costly arbitration-eligible players who could be on the move. There are a few others who didn't strike us at MLBTR as plausible non-tender candidates but wouldn't be especially surprising trade possibilities. These players should have modest surplus value yet still might be better served with a change of scenery or on a team that has more budgetary flexibility to accommodate a mid-level salary. Projected salaries are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Spencer Steer, Reds 1B ($4.5MM projection, controllable through 2028)

Acquired from the Twins as part of the 2022 Tyler Mahle deadline deal, Steer looked like a building block of the Cincinnati lineup a couple seasons ago. He hit .271/.356/.464 with 37 doubles and 23 home runs in his '23 rookie season. Even with questions about his long-term defensive fit, the bat looked like it'd play.

The numbers have backed up over the past two years. Steer has still reached the 20-homer mark in both seasons, but his rate metrics are down across the board. His batting average has respectively landed at .225 and .238. The on-base percentage has been below .320 in both years. Steer's overall slugging output is also down despite the similar home run tallies. He has hit fewer doubles (21 this season) as his batted ball metrics have regressed.

Steer graded well defensively at first base and was a finalist for the NL Gold Glove award. That's a nice development, but he's still limited to bat-first positions that require him to hit to be productive. He came up as a third baseman but hasn't played there in two years. Steer is athletic enough to play some corner outfield, but his grades out there have been poor. He also played through a shoulder injury this year that impacted his throwing, leading the Reds to be cautious about how much work they gave him anywhere other than first base. Cincinnati should be in the market for an impact bat, and first base has free agent possibilities ranging from Pete Alonso to Ryan O'Hearn. That could make Steer expendable. The Marlins, Padres, Rangers, Red Sox and Diamondbacks are speculative trade partners.

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Braves, Connor Thomas Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Braves recently signed left-hander Connor Thomas to a minor league contract, (h/t to Matt Eddy of Baseball America). It’s possible that’s a two-year deal, as the 27-year-old underwent UCL surgery in July and will miss most or all of the ’26 season.

It’s a homecoming for the Tifton, Georgia, native. Thomas played his college ball at Georgia Tech and was selected by the Cardinals in the fifth round in 2019. He spent the 2023-24 campaigns at Triple-A Memphis, posting impressive numbers following a move to the bullpen in the latter year. Thomas tossed 90 1/3 innings across 56 appearances, pitching to a 3.39 earned run average. He didn’t miss many bats but attacked the strike zone and got a lot of ground-balls and weak contact.

The Brewers grabbed Thomas in last winter’s Rule 5 draft. He pitched well enough in Spring Training to break camp and make his MLB debut. It didn’t go as planned, as he was bombed for eight runs on a trio of homers in two mop-up innings in a blowout loss to the Yankees. Thomas pitched against the Reds six days later, surrendering four more runs on six hits across 3 1/3 frames. He went on the injured list after the second appearance and went under the knife a few months later.

Milwaukee dropped Thomas from the roster at the beginning of the offseason. He’ll rehab with his hometown club and try to factor into a long relief role once he’s healthy down the line. Thomas sits in the 89-90 MPH range with his fastball and uses four pitches (sinker, cutter, changeup, sweeper) at similar rates.

Orioles Add Brady North, Hank Conger To Coaching Staff

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The Orioles are adding Brady North and Hank Conger to Craig Albernaz’s first coaching staff. Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner reported that North was coming aboard as an assistant hitting coach. MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko reported Conger’s hiring as bullpen coach.

North had been an assistant hitting coach in Tampa Bay for the past four seasons. The 34-year-old had previously worked as a minor league hitting instructor in the Rays’ farm system. His first season in the organization (2019) overlapped with Albernaz’s year as a minor league field coordinator. North is now on to the second team of his coaching career. He’ll work underneath first-time hitting coach Dustin Lind, whose hiring was reported a couple weeks ago.

Conger, 38 in January, played parts of seven seasons in the big leagues as a catcher. He moved into coaching in Korea in 2020, holding a position with the Lotte Giants for two seasons. Conger returned stateside over the 2021-22 offseason to join Rocco Baldelli’s staff in Minnesota. Conger spent three years as first base coach and this past season as an assistant bench coach. He was also the catching coach for all four seasons. The Twins moved on from Conger when they brought in new manager Derek Shelton.

Assistant pitching coach Mitch Plassmeyer had been the interim bullpen coach. Plassmeyer and pitching strategy coach Ryan Klimek are expected back, as is pitching coach Drew French (link via Jake Rill of MLB.com). Conger will also be on the pitching side, working with a relief group that’ll probably be without Félix Bautista for the entire season.

The O’s reacquired Andrew Kittredge from the Cubs, the first of what should be multiple bullpen moves. President of baseball operations Mike Elias is already on record about wanting to add a closer. (Francys Romero reported last night that Baltimore was one of the teams that had expressed interest in Raisel Iglesias before he re-signed with the Braves.) Baltimore’s bullpen was 25th with a 4.57 ERA this past season.

North and Conger should get the O’s coaching staff pretty close to complete. They’re also hired Donnie Ecker (bench coach), Jason Bourgeois (first base coach), Miguel Cairo (infield coach) and Joe Singley (catching coach/field coordinator) while retaining third base coach Buck Britton. Baltimore did have two assistant hitting coaches in 2025, so it’s possible they’ll add another voice on the offensive side to work with Lind and North.

Braves Notes: Dubon, Seager, Holmes

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Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos met with reporters on Wednesday after the team acquired Mauricio Dubón from the Astros for Nick Allen. Anthopoulos confirmed the Braves view him as a potential starting shortstop while leaving the door open to pushing him back into a utility role if they land an upgrade.

“Our underlying data on him at shortstop is good and strong,” Anthopoulos said (link via Mark Bowman of MLB.com). “But I think he’s good at second, good at third, and good at the corners. He can play center field. We like the contact and the speed, as well.” Anthopoulos said Dubón’s job “will be determined by what else we do this winter and even in Spring Training.”

There’s no indication the Braves will be a factor for Bo Bichette. The only other clear free agent upgrade is Ha-Seong Kim, who declined his $16MM player option. Anthopoulos made clear at the beginning of the offseason that the Braves wanted Kim back, but it remains to be seen if they’ll meet his asking price on what will presumably be a multi-year deal.

There aren’t any teams that are known to be shopping an everyday shortstop. Washington could move CJ Abrams, but the asking price would be huge and they may be reluctant to trade him within the division. The rebuilding White Sox and Rockies have young shortstops they hope are foundational pieces (Colson Montgomery and Ezequiel Tovar, respectively).

There’s been some speculation about the Rangers entertaining offers on a highly-paid superstar as they face payroll constraints. It’d still be a huge surprise if Texas trades Corey Seager, who arguably remains the team’s best hitter and is signed for $31MM per season for another six years. It’s not clear if the Braves would have any interest in assuming a significant portion of the remaining $186MM on that deal. Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic report that Atlanta is one of the clubs on Seager’s eight-team no-trade list. Even if the teams could line up a stunning blockbuster, they’d need to get the player to sign off.

The 31-year-old Dubón has started 81 MLB games at shortstop. He played a career-high 206 1/3 innings there this past season. Dubón has 721 career frames at the position. Defensive Runs Saved has him right around average, while Statcast grades him an excellent nine runs above par. Dubón, a two-time Gold Glove winner in a utility capacity, is established as a plus defender at second base and throughout the outfield. He’s an above-average runner with good hands and a plus arm. Dubón is unlikely to be as good a defensive shortstop as Allen was, but he’s not a complete zero at the bottom of the lineup, so he’s a better overall player.

The Braves need to weigh the value of the upgrade from Dubón to Kim against the cost it’d take to bring the latter back — which could pull resources from their need for a mid-rotation starter. There’s too much injury downside to rely on a rotation of Chris Sale, Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach, Reynaldo López and Hurston Waldrep.

The Braves don’t have much in the way of upper level depth behind that quintet. That makes Grant Holmes’ health a big x-factor, even assuming they add at least one starter. Holmes turned in a 3.99 ERA while striking out a quarter of batters faced in 22 appearances this year. His season ended in July when he was diagnosed with a partial tear of the UCL in his elbow.

Ligament damage always raises a risk of surgery. Holmes is trying to rehab without going under the knife. Anthopoulos said the Braves are “really encouraged” by how things have progressed in the past four months (relayed by David O’Brien of The Athletic). They still won’t know whether Holmes can avoid surgery until he builds up the intensity during Spring Training, yet that’s a positive development at this stage.

A’s Agree To Minor League Deals With Ben Bowden, Geoff Hartlieb

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The Athletics agreed to minor league contracts with relievers Ben Bowden and Geoff Hartlieb. Matt Eddy of Baseball America noted Bowden’s signing on their latest transaction roundup, while the Hartlieb move is reflected on the MLB.com transaction log.

Bowden’s deal is a re-signing, as he spent the 2025 season with the A’s. The 31-year-old southpaw made 11 appearances, allowing six runs (five earned) across 10 2/3 frames. He struck out seven and issued five walks before suffering a season-ending lat strain. While that cost him his 40-man roster spot, the A’s like him enough as a depth option to bring him back. Bowden pitched well at Triple-A Las Vegas before his call-up, working 39 2/3 innings of 1.36 ERA ball while striking out a quarter of opposing hitters.

The A’s could lose Sean Newcomb to free agency. That leaves them with Hogan Harris as the only left-hander locked into the bullpen. Brady Basso and swingman Ken Waldichuk are the only other southpaws on the 40-man roster who aren’t set for rotation roles. The A’s will probably bring in a left-hander (or re-sign Newcomb), but there’s a decent path for Bowden right now to compete for a season-opening bullpen job.

Hartlieb, 31, is likely to begin the season in Triple-A. The journeyman righty made four MLB appearances between the Yankees and Tigers this past season. He gave up eight runs in 3 1/3 innings and has a near-8.00 ERA in his MLB career. Hartlieb posted strong underlying numbers in Triple-A, fanning 27.6% of opponents against a 7.6% walk rate over 53 1/3 frames. That gets him another non-roster opportunity for what’ll be his seventh Triple-A season.

KBO’s Kiwoom Heroes Post Infielder Sung-mun Song

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The Kiwoom Heroes of the Korea Baseball Organization have agreed to post infielder Sung-mun Song, reports Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News. The KBO posting window is 30 days (unlike the 45-day period for players coming over from Japan’s NPB). MLB teams will officially be able to negotiate with Song, whom Yoo adds has hired ISE Baseball to represent him, on Saturday morning. He’ll need to sign by 5:00 pm Eastern on December 21 or remain with the Heroes.

Song, 29, is a left-handed hitter who has played all nine seasons of his career with that club. He posted a sub-.700 OPS every year between 2021-23 but has taken a leap forward at the plate over the past two years. Song hit .340/.409/.518 last year and is coming off an equally impressive ’25 campaign. He popped a career-best 26 home runs with a .315/.387/.530 slash across 646 plate appearances.

Among 30 KBO hitters with 500+ trips to the dish, Song finished sixth in both average and on-base percentage and was third in slugging. He also finished third in home runs (albeit well behind former MLB first baseman Lewin Díaz’s league-best 50 longballs). Song walked at a 10.5% rate while striking out 14.9% of the time. The strikeout rate would be excellent against big league pitching but is only a little better than average in Korea, where the velocity is lower and hitters put far more balls in play.

Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs gave Song a 45 FV grade, which is commensurate with a mid-level prospect from the typical organization’s top 30 list. Longenhagen credited him with plus power to the pull side and a plus arm at third base, where he has spent most of his KBO career. He’s a good athlete who stole 25 bases this year and has gone 46-48 in stolen base attempts over the past two seasons.

The biggest question is his pure hitting ability. Longenhagen writes that Song has shown a bit of a propensity to chase outside the strike zone and has an uphill swing path that can leave him vulnerable to pitches up in the zone, especially those on the outer half. Readers are encouraged to check out FanGraphs’ full scouting report for more details. Will Sammon and Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic wrote earlier this month that evaluators with whom they spoke viewed Song more as a utility player than a regular.

Song has some defensive flexibility, but an inability to play shortstop limits his value as a utility piece. He’s primarily a corner infielder who also has almost 1300 innings at second base. The Angels need a third baseman and are looking for a left-handed bat to balance a righty-heavy lineup. The Astros also want to bring in a lefty-hitting infielder, though they’d need to feel comfortable playing Song regularly at second base unless they trade one of Isaac Paredes or Christian Walker. The A’s are in the second and third base markets, while the Mariners could be as well depending on whether they re-sign their own free agents. The White Sox, Pirates, Marlins, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Tigers and Royals (with Maikel Garcia capable of playing second) could all be in the mix for a third baseman.

A signing team would owe a posting fee to the Heroes on top of whatever is guaranteed to Song. That’s proportional to the contract value: 20% of the first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% thereafter. It’d be surprising if Song tops $25MM, so the likeliest outcome is that the release fee will be 20% of the guarantee.

Song is the only KBO player known to be on the posting radar this offseason. First baseman Baek-Ho Kang was reportedly considering an MLB move, but he signed a four-year contract with the KBO’s Hanwha Eagles this week. While Cody Ponce is expected to return to MLB after a dominant KBO season, he’ll do so as a free agent rather than via the posting system. There are three much higher-profile NPB players making the jump via the posting system: Tatsuya Imai, Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto. Japanese righty Kona Takahashi is also being posted but will command a far lower contract than the other three.

Rays Sign John Rooney To Minor League Deal

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The Rays announced they’ve signed lefty reliever John Rooney and infielder Raynel Delgado to minor league contracts with invitations to big league Spring Training. Francys Romero first reported the Delgado signing last night.

Rooney elected minor league free agency after being outrighted by the Astros at the beginning of the offseason. The 28-year-old had a brief stint with Houston, who acquired him from the Marlins in a small trade in August. (Rooney could be traded after July 31 because he’d been on a minor league contract.) The Astros called him up for his big league debut three weeks later. Rooney struck out two of six batters faced while giving up a solo home run to Luis Vázquez in his only appearance.

The Astros placed him on the injured list after that game. Rooney underwent season-ending surgery to treat tennis elbow and remove bone spurs. He’ll try to work his way back to the big leagues with Tampa Bay next spring. Rooney sits just 90-91 MPH with his fastballs while leaning more often on a low-80s breaking ball. It missed a lot of bats in Triple-A, where he struck out 34% of opponents en route to a 2.56 ERA in 43 appearances between Miami’s and Houston’s affiliates. He held left-handed hitters to a .155/.282/.169 line with 37 strikeouts and nine walks in 85 Triple-A plate appearances this year.

Delgado, 26 in April, has not played in MLB. He’s a former sixth-round pick by Cleveland who spent last season with the Brewers top farm team. The left-handed hitter put together a solid .281/.363/.378 slash while stealing 40 bases in 48 attempts. Delgado is stretched at shortstop but can serve as a depth piece at either second or third base.

Pirates Avoid Arbitration With Jack Suwinski, Yohan Ramirez

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7:10pm: They’ve also reached an arb-avoiding deal with middle reliever Yohan Ramírez, reports Alex Stumpf of MLB.com. He’ll make $825K next season. Ramirez pitched to a 5.40 ERA in 33 1/3 innings for the Bucs this year.

6:05pm: The Pirates and outfielder Jack Suwinski have avoided arbitration, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Suwinski will make $1.25MM next year. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected him for a $1.7MM salary.

Tomorrow is the non-tender deadline. Teams have until 4pm Central to decide whether or not to tender contracts to their arbitration-eligible and pre-arb players. They don’t need to agree to a salary by tomorrow but it’s the last chance for clubs to walk away from a player and pay him nothing.

It’s common for a few deals to be finalized in the lead-up to the deadline. In many cases, but not always, these “pre-tender” deals see the player agree to a salary below projections. The oversimplified version of how this happens is that teams put a “take it or leave it” offer on the table. If the player decides to “leave it”, the team will simply non-tender him. Since Suwinski has been struggling lately and will make about half a million less than projected, it’s possible that happened here.

Back in 2023, Suwinski seemed to be breaking out in the big leagues, as he hit 26 home runs that year with strong batted-ball data to back it up. His 32.2% strikeout rate was way too high but he offset that with the power and also drew walks at a 14% clip. He also lined up at all three outfield positions. His work in center was panned but he was decent in the corners.

Things have been trending down since then. He has stepped to the plate 455 times over the past two years with a dismal .169/.271/.297 line. His .220 batting average on balls in play hasn’t helped but his batted-ball data has declined. His strikeout rate has stayed high at 29.9% while his walk rate dropped to 11.2%.

Due to that rough performance, he has been optioned to the minors with some regularity. In the process, he has exhausted his option seasons and will be out of options going forward. The Bucs could have walked away this week but have apparently not totally given up on a bounceback. For what it’s worth, Suwinski has continued producing in Triple-A, with a .283/.389/.565 line and 149 wRC+ at that level in 2025.

Suwinski’s salary will be barely above the league minimum, which will be $780K next year, so it’s not a massive risk for the Bucs. If Suwinski continues to struggle, he can be cut from the roster without it being too much of a sunk cost. He would also likely clear waivers in that scenario and would stick around as non-roster depth. He is two days away from having three years of service time, which would give him the right to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency. However, since he has less than five years of service, he would have to forfeit his remaining salary commitments in exercising that right.

The Bucs go into 2026 with Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds projected in two outfield spots. The Bucs could add someone to take a third spot but it’s fairly open for now, with Suwinski in the mix alongside Will Robertson, Billy Cook and others.

Photo courtesy of Katie Stratman, Imagn Images

Royals Sign Alex Lange

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The Royals signed righty reliever Alex Lange to a one-year contract, per a club announcement. It’s reportedly a $900K guarantee that includes another $100K in performance bonuses. Lange, who attended high school in the K.C. area, had been released by the Tigers on Tuesday. The Royals had an opening on the 40-man roster and no additional move was necessary.

The 30-year-old Lange is a former first-round pick who spent a few seasons as one of Detroit’s top relievers. He worked as A.J. Hinch’s closer for a good chunk of the 2023 season, going 26-32 in save chances. Lange turned in a 3.68 earned run average while striking out 27.4% of opposing hitters across 66 innings that year. He got grounders on half the batted balls he allowed while missing bats on a huge 15.5% of his offerings. Lange was prone to bouts of wildness but his stuff played.

Lange’s strikeout rate plummeted early in the 2024 season. Detroit demoted him to Triple-A by the end of May. Lange seemed like he was bouncing back against minor league competition until he suffered a significant lat injury. That required surgery which not only ended his ’24 campaign but shelved him until August this year. Lange was essentially a non-factor for two straight years. He only pitched one time at the big league level this past season, working around two hits and a walk to complete a scoreless inning.

The encouraging sign is that Lange’s stuff didn’t appear diminished. He averaged 96.2 MPH on his sinker and 88.4 MPH on his knuckle-curve in that lone big league appearance. Both velocities were marginally up from where he’d sat two years ago. Lange punched out nearly 30% of Triple-A opponents while turning in a 4.63 ERA across 24 appearances. He also walked 14.3% of batters faced, but that’s par for the course for a pitcher who has always had well below-average control.

It’s a cheap flier on a pitcher with plus stuff and some high-leverage experience. Lange has a minor league option remaining, so the Royals can keep him in Triple-A Omaha next season without exposing him to waivers. He has between three and four years of service, meaning K.C. could control him for three seasons. Lange will need a healthy season to convince the Royals to tender him contracts that’d make the extra control years meaningful, but there’s a bit of long-term upside.

Anne Rogers of MLB.com first reported the signing and the guarantee.

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