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The Opener: Dodgers, Mariners, Imanaga

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As MLB’s offseason continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. What’s next for the Dodgers?

The Dodgers added a big bat to their lineup yesterday evening, agreeing to sign Teoscar Hernandez to a one-year deal. The addition of Hernandez solidifies their outfield mix of James Outman, Jason Heyward, Manuel Margot, and Chris Taylor, allowing Mookie Betts to stay on the infield dirt on a regular basis headed into the 2024 campaign. The addition of Hernandez takes the club’s luxury tax payroll to just under $303MM, per RosterResource. Now that the club has surpassed the final luxury tax threshold for 2024, could more additions be on the horizon?

While the club’s positional group seems largely set, an addition at shortstop who can provide more certainty than the club’s current tandem of Gavin Lux and Miguel Rojas would certainly make sense. On the pitching side of things, another starter who can slot into the Opening Day rotation could allow the Dodgers to be more careful with their deployment of Walker Buehler in his first full season following his second career Tommy John surgery. Beyond that, the club has yet to make any changes of note to its bullpen mix, and longtime franchise stalwart Clayton Kershaw remains unsigned, though the veteran lefty won’t return to the mound until sometime this summer following shoulder surgery earlier this winter.

2. Will the Mariners continue retooling their roster?

The Mariners have altered the look of their lineup this winter after beginning the offseason with a focus on improving the club’s contact skills. By parting ways with Hernandez, Mike Ford, Eugenio Suarez, and Jarred Kelenic, Seattle made room for the additions of Luke Raley, Mitch Haniger, Luis Urias, and Mitch Garver while also shedding the remaining years on underwater contracts for Evan White and Robbie Ray.

The club’s corner outfield duo of Raley and Haniger sport question marks, however, as does the infield duo of Urias and Josh Rojas. Raley got off to a strong start in 2023 but petered out to slash just .200/.270/.380 over the season’s final two months. Meanwhile, Haniger posted a wRC+ of just 73 last year and has gotten into just 118 games across the past two seasons. On the infield, Urias and Rojas both appear to be best served in platoon roles. The addition of an infielder capable of playing everyday and perhaps another part-time outfielder would go a long way to rounding out the club’s offense, but the Mariners have seeming operated on a tight budget this winter. Do they have room for additional finishing touches?

3. The clock is ticking on Imanaga:

Left-hander Shota Imanaga, ranked No. 10 on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, is entering the final stretch of his window to sign with MLB clubs after being posted by his NPB team, the Yokohama DeNA BayStars. Imanaga’s posting window will come to a close on Thursday, meaning just four days remain for the southpaw to sign with a big league club. There’s little question about whether he’ll be able to find a team given the interest he’s received from teams like the Giants, Red Sox, and Cubs this winter.

That being said, it remains up in the air not only which club the lefty will ultimately sign with, but what sort of guarantee he’ll land. MLBTR predicted a five-year, $85MM deal for Imanaga this winter, but reports last month indicated his market could be pushing toward a $100MM guarantee. Will Imanaga secure a nine-figure deal in the coming days? Any deal a club signs with Imanaga would come with an additional posting fee for the BayStars, which could cost around $16.9MM if Imanaga does land a $100MM deal before his posting window comes to a close.

Dodgers Sign Teoscar Hernandez

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The Dodgers have continued their free agent spending spree, announcing a one-year, $23.5MM deal with outfielder Teoscar Hernandez.  Only $15MM of that salary will be paid to Hernandez this year, as the rest is deferred and will be paid out in installments from 2030-39.  Hernandez is represented by Republik Sports.

Reports about the Dodgers’ interest in Hernandez surfaced soon after the free agent market opened back in early November, and L.A. maintained that interest all the way up until today’s agreement.  The Dodgers were known to be still be looking for a right-handed bat, and they’ve now addressed that need in a big way with a former All-Star and Silver Slugger who has hit 147 home runs over 3002 plate appearances since the start of the 2018 season.

After a string of productive years with the Blue Jays, Hernandez was dealt for Erik Swanson and Adam Macko last offseason, and Hernandez’s move to Seattle resulted in a downturn in his production.  While he still went yard 26 times, Hernandez batted only .258/.305/.435 over 678 plate appearances, and his 105 wRC+ was well below his 133 wRC+ from 2020-22.  Since Hernandez’s underlying metrics were largely the same as his career norms, it seems possible that the biggest culprit was simply T-Mobile Park.  Hernandez hit only .217/.263/.380 in the Mariners’ home ballpark last season, as opposed to a much stronger .295/.344/.486 slash line on the road.

While Dodger Stadium has something of a pitcher-friendly reputation itself, it stands to reason that the 31-year-old Hernandez might get back on track in a new environment, and this one-year deal might reflect his desire to re-establish himself before committing to a longer-term contract.  MLB Trade Rumors ranked Hernandez 12th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents and projected him for a four-year, $80MM deal, under the logic that the offseason’s lack of premium bats would still lead to a big contract for Hernandez even in the wake of an underwhelming 2023 campaign.

It could also be the case that Hernandez was open to a one-year pact specifically to join the Dodgers, as the outfielder is now joining arguably baseball’s most loaded lineup.  Los Angeles already racked up plenty of runs in their 100-win 2023 campaign, and that powerful collection of position players has now added Shohei Ohtani to the DH spot and Hernandez to a corner outfield role.

Hernandez now gets to join a contender and possibly win a World Series ring, while ideally posting a better platform year that would allow him to score a big multi-year contract next winter.  The Angels and Red Sox were two other teams known to be in the running for Hernandez’s services, and reporter Francys Romero and MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (X links) each relayed that those teams had interest in the outfielder on two-year deals.  In Boston’s case, Cotillo wrote that the Sox were interested in something akin to a two-year, $28MM pact.

Hernandez now looks to be the Dodgers’ everyday option primarily in left field, though he could slide over to right field when a left-hander is on the mound (thus sending Jason Heyward to the bench).  L.A. is still perhaps a little unbalanced with left-handed hitters in its first-choice lineup, yet Hernandez now joins Mookie Betts and Will Smith as big righty swingers, plus the Dodgers have other right-handed bats in Chris Taylor, Manuel Margot, and Miguel Rojas available off the bench.

Margot was also recently acquired as part of the Tyler Glasnow trade with the Rays but is known more for his defense than his bat.  Taylor can fill in at multiple positions, and his hitting also became a question mark after a down year in 2022, though he did bounce back with a 104 wRC+ over 384 PA last season.  Having Taylor as a supersub around the diamond is perhaps a better use for his skillset than a regular spot in left field, even if defensive metrics have been mixed at best about Hernandez’s outfield glovework during his career.

Hernandez has never drawn many walks during his career, and his high strikeout totals add even more swing-and-miss to a team that already saw Taylor, James Outman, Max Muncy, and even Ohtani rank well below the league average in strikeout rate in 2023.  Still, the relative lack of contact is something of a minor flaw compared to the huge upside provided by the Dodgers’ overall offensive attack.

The deferred money will lower the luxury tax number on Hernandez’s $23.5MM salary, but his signing represents yet another big expenditure for a Los Angeles team that has basically lapped the rest of the league combined in offseason spending.  Led by Ohtani’s $700MM deal and Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325MM contract, the Dodgers have now spent slightly under $1.067 billion on free agents alone this winter, to say nothing of the extra money taken on when L.A. acquired and then extended Glasnow.  As per Roster Resource, the Dodgers’ tax number for 2024 now sits at roughly $302.32MM, well over the Competitive Balance Tax’s highest penalty threshold of $297MM.

Even with the luxury tax bill continuing to escalate, there is little reason to think L.A. is done making moves, as starting pitching continues to be a need even after adding Yamamoto and Glasnow.  More signings obviously can’t be ruled out, or the Dodgers could move more young talent in other trades for another starter.  The sky is basically the limit for Los Angeles at this point, as the Dodgers have outpaced even their usual high-spending ways (with the many deferrals kicking the financial can down the road to some extent) in building a veritable superteam with Ohtani, Betts, Yamamoto, and Freddie Freeman among the cornerstones.

Reporter Moises Fabian (via X) was first with the news that Hernandez had signed with Los Angeles, and ESPN’s Jeff Passan (X links) reported details about the one-year term, the salary, and the deferred money.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Mets Sign Harrison Bader

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TODAY: Bader’s $10.5MM guarantee breaks down as a $1MM signing bonus and a $9.5MM salary in 2024, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post (X link).  Up to $350K in incentive bonuses is also available.
JANUARY 5: The Mets have officially announced that they have signed Bader.

JANUARY 4: The Mets are signing Harrison Bader, reports Andy Martino of SNY. It’s a one-year deal worth approximately $10MM, per Martino. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reports the salary as $10.5MM for the Vayner Sports client.

Bader, 30 in June, is an elite defensive outfielder who has had mixed results as a hitter and has also struggled to stay consistently healthy. Since his debut in 2017, he has racked up 52 Defensive Runs Saved, 68 Outs Above Average and a grade of 46.6 from Ultimate Zone Rating. All three of those figures place him in the top 10 among all outfielders in the league in that time. He’s also stolen 77 bases in 95 tries.

The offensive side of his game is less impressive, however. He’s hit .243/.310/.396 in his career for a wRC+ of 92, indicating he’s been 8% below league average overall. He has been above average at times, posting a wRC+ of 107 in 2018 and a 108 in 2021, but the past two years have been rough. He split 2022 between the Cardinals and Yankees, getting flipped for Jordan Montgomery at the deadline. He finished that year with a batting line of .250/.294/.356 and a wRC+ of just 85. His production fell even further in 2023, as he hit .232/.274/.348 on the year for a wRC+ of 70, going to the Reds late in the year as the Yankees looked to dump salary by putting Bader on waivers.

Health has also been a concern in each of the past three seasons, with Bader getting into 287 games over that stretch, never getting into more than 103 in any of those seasons individually. Those past three seasons have seen him hit the injured list due to a right rib hairline fracture, right foot plantar fasciitis, a left oblique strain, a right hamstring strain and a right groin strain.

The Mets have been planning for 2024 to be a sort of transition year, signing players to modest deals and making other depth moves as new president of baseball operations David Stearns evaluates the organization before likely ramping up aggressiveness next winter. Luis Severino, Joey Wendle, Jorge López, Austin Adams and Michael Tonkin have all joined the roster via one-year pacts, while the club also acquired Adrian Houser and Tyrone Taylor from the Brewers. They have claimed Penn Murfee, Zack Short, Tyler Heineman and Cooper Hummel off waivers and given out a number of minor league deals.

Bader will fit into that strategy while bolstering the outfield mix. His strong defense will allow Brandon Nimmo, whose defensive grades dipped in 2023, to spend a bit more time in a corner. Bader also has notable platoon splits, which could perhaps allow the Mets to deploy him selectively. He has hit .262/.330/.494 against lefties in his career for a wRC+ of 121, but .236/.304/.364 against righties for a wRC+ of 82. Nimmo hits from the left side but also fares well against pitchers of either handedness. DJ Stewart is a lefty hitter who mashes righties and is a poor defender to boot, meaning he and Bader could nicely augment each other’s weaknesses.

The outfield picture now includes Bader, Nimmo, Stewart, Taylor and Starling Marte. Nimmo and Marte have injury histories of their own, so perhaps the Mets will use the designated hitter slot to give out occasional rest days and keep everyone healthy over the course of the season.

MLBTR predicted Bader for a two-year, $20MM deal, perhaps with an opt out that would allow him to return to the open market with a better offensive platform. Instead, he lands a straight one-year pact at roughly the same average annual value. The one-year, $10.5MM framework is the exact same as the deal between Kevin Kiermaier, another glove-first outfielder, and the Blue Jays.

Despite the relatively modest offseason, the Mets are still way into competitive balance tax territory. Roster Resource has their CBT figure at $307MM, north of the fourth and final bracket of $297MM. As a third-time payor, they are set to pay a 110% tax on any spending above that line, meaning they could end up paying over $20MM for one year of Bader’s services. However, the tax payments aren’t calculated until the end of the year. If the Mets don’t find themselves in contention this summer, they could move some salary by trading players such as Pete Alonso or José Quintana and alter their final tax status.

Yankees Interested In Jesus Luzardo, Shane Bieber

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Earlier reports suggested that the Yankees were talking with the Marlins about their starting pitching, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds some specifics by writing that New York is interested in left-hander Jesus Luzardo.  In addition, the Yankees have also checked in the Guardians about righty Shane Bieber, Nightengale adds.

These two pitchers represent the wide range of options the Bronx Bombers are considering are they seek out rotation help.  Luzardo would be a longer-term add, as the 26-year-old is arbitration-controlled through the 2026 season and is only arb-eligible (projected for a $5.9MM salary) for the first time this winter.  Bieber is projected to earn $12.2MM in 2024, which is slated to be his final season before free agency.  Though Bieber is reportedly open to signing an extension with his new team in the event of a trade, that probably won’t be an option with the Yankees in particular, since New York so rarely breaks its unofficial team rule about offering contract extensions.

Because Cleveland almost always moves its higher-paid players prior to free agency, Bieber has been rumored as a trade candidate for years, and that speculation has been peaking now that he is entering his final year of team control.  The Guardians have already dealt one veteran pitcher in Cal Quantrill this offseason, and given the talented by generally inexperienced nature of the rest of Cleveland’s rotation, the Guards could potentially opt to hang onto Bieber to further bolster its own pitching staff.  There’s also the fact that Bieber pitched only 128 innings in 2023 due to elbow inflammation, and his numbers were only good (3.80 ERA) rather than the elite form he showed earlier in his career.

As much as Bieber could help the Guardians, however, it seems likely that the team wouldn’t hesitate to move a pitcher who might not be a part of their future in exchange for a longer-term asset.  Whether or not the Yankees might match up well with the Guardians is another matter, as New York already dealt away a good chunk of their younger pitching assets in the Juan Soto deal, and the Yankees’ young infield depth might not hold as much appeal to a Cleveland team that already has plenty of young infielders.

Naturally the Bombers aren’t going to have much interest in dealing top minor league talent for just a year of Bieber’s services, yet they could be willing to explore such a move for three years of Luzardo.  The left-hander is coming off his first full and healthy season as a starting pitcher, and the results were impressive — Luzardo posted a 3.58 ERA over 178 2/3 innings, with solidly above-average strikeout and walk rates.

As noted by MLBTR’s Nick Deeds earlier today, Oswald Peraza might have a clear appeal to the shortstop-needy Marlins, but it would take more just Peraza to pry Luzardo away from South Florida.  It’s fair to assume that any number of teams have at least floated the idea of a Luzardo trade with the Marlins, and a demand of multiple top-100 prospects seems like a reasonable ask for Miami given Luzardo’s age, ability, and three years of control.

Unlike with Bieber and the Guardians, there is no ticking clock on Luzardo’s time in Miami, so president of baseball operations Peter Bendix would probably have to be bowled over by an offer to move the left-hander.  The Marlins might well look to move a starter for hitting help, yet any of Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers, or even Braxton Garrett could be likelier trade candidates than Luzardo.  With Sandy Alcantara missing 2024 due to Tommy John surgery, Luzardo and Eury Perez are lined up as the cornerstones of the talented Miami rotation.

Free Agent Faceoff: Aroldis Chapman/Matt Moore

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The market for pure relievers has been deathly slow this winter. Since free agency opened in early November, just four full-time relievers have signed multi-year contracts this winter: right-handers Chris Stratton and Emilio Pagan signed on with the Royals and Reds, respectively, while both NPB lefty Yuki Matsui and KBO righty Woo Suk Go recently agreed to deals with the Padres. While the likes of Nick Martinez, Reynaldo Lopez, and (most recently) Sean Manaea have all signed multi-year pacts this offseason as well, each of that trio has started games in the past and figures to have at least a chance of earning a rotation spot entering Spring Training.

There’s little question who the top dog available in free agency this offseason is in terms of relief pitching. Southpaw Josh Hader has been in the conversation for best reliever in baseball practically since his debut back in 2017 and is coming off an incredible platform season where he posted a 1.28 ERA in 56 1/3 innings of work while collecting 33 saves and striking out 36.8% of batters faced. Behind him, the best available bullpen arms largely appear to be right-handed. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently discussed the pros and cons of two of the winter’s best righty relievers, Robert Stephenson and Jordan Hicks. What of the left-handed relief market? With Hader in a league of his own, the next tier of southpaw free agent arms features two dominant back-end veterans in their mid-thirties: Aroldis Chapman and Matt Moore.

The two could hardly have had more different career paths leading them to this point. Chapman may be the most well-recognized reliever in the game today, as the veteran fireballer made seven All Star appearances between 2012 and 2021, pitching to an incredible 2.25 ERA and 2.13 FIP in 540 1/3 innings of work and racking up 305 saves across that ten-year span while pitching for the Reds, Yankees, and Cubs. During that time, Chapman’s fastball routinely topped 100 mph and averaged 99.5 mph while maxing out at over 105 mph. That velocity made him one of the hardest-throwing pitchers in the game, particularly at the time of his debut back in 2010.

Over time, however, signs of decline became evident in Chapman’s profile. After pitching just 11 2/3 innings during the shortened 2020 season, 2021 saw the flamethrower post a career-worst 3.99 FIP thanks to a 15.6% strikeout rate that was his highest since his first full season in the majors back in 2011. While Chapman managed to pitch through those red flags to rack up 30 saves and post a solid 3.36 ERA, the wheels came off more noticeably for the left-hander during 2022, his final season in New York. Chapman posted the worst average fastball velocity of his career that season, averaging “just” 97.5 mph on his heater. His already elevated walk rate also continued to climb, reaching 17.5%. Meanwhile, his strikeout rate plummeted to just 26.9%, by far the worst of his career. Chapman’s 4.46 ERA and 4.57 FIP were also career worsts, and his career with the Yankees ended inauspiciously as he was left off the club’s ALDS roster after skipping a team workout.

Chapman’s struggles left him to sign a modest one-year deal with the Royals in free agency last winter in hopes of recouping his value. The lefty did well for himself in that regard as his average fastball velocity climbed back up to 99.1 mph, the highest it had been since his age-29 season back in 2017. With the improved velocity came renewed success, as Chapman struck out a whopping 41.4% of batters faced while posting a 3.09 ERA and 2.52 FIP in 58 1/3 innings of work for the Royals and Rangers. While Chapman’s 14.5% walk rate will surely raise some eyebrows, if he can continue striking out batters at elite rates he should be able to pitch around the additional traffic on the basepaths.

Moore, by contrast, was once considered the very top prospect in all of baseball and in the early years of his career with the Rays appeared to be a burgeoning star. Tommy John surgery in 2014 got in the way of Moore’s ascension, however, and the left-hander was never the same pitcher upon returning to the mound. He scuffled as a fringe rotation option for years, bouncing between the Rays, Giants, Rangers, and Tigers before heading to Japan during the 2020 campaign to try and revitalize his career overseas. Moore excelled with a 2.65 ERA in 85 innings for Nippon Professional Baseball’s Fukoka Softbanks Hawks in 2020 and returned stateside as a swingman for the Phillies in 2021, though he had another difficult season as he struggled to a 6.29 ERA in 73 innings of work.

That rough performance lead Moore to take a minor league contract with the Rangers, but upon converting to relief full time the lefty quickly made his way not only into the big league bullpen, but into a late-inning role with the club. In 74 innings of work across 63 relief appearances for the Rangers in 2022, Moore dominated to a 1.95 ERA with a 2.98 FIP and a 27.3% strikeout rate paired with a strong 43.9% groundball rate. Despite that dominance, Moore’s long track record of struggles prior to the 2022 campaign, his elevated 12.5% walk rate, and a minuscule 4.2% home run rate on fly balls likely caused concern among potential suitors in free agency, leaving him to settle for a one-year deal with the Angels last winter.

Fortunately for Moore, his performance in 2023 largely backed up his newfound role as a quality back-end relief arm and answered those questions regarding sustainability. Though time on the injured list limited the left-hander to just 50 appearances last year, he posted a strong 2.56 ERA and saw his strikeout rate tick up to 27.5% while his walk rate plummeted to a greatly-improved 6.9%. He found that success in spite of the fact that his groundball rate dipped to a career-low 35% and a whopping 11.3% of his fly balls left the yard for home runs last season.

Perhaps even more impressive is the fact that Moore found this success while being shuffled between three teams late in the season. The Angels placed him on waivers in August, where he was claimed by the Guardians, who then promptly waived him for a second time before he was claimed by the Marlins to contribute to their playoff push in the season’s final week. Taken together, Moore sports a sterling 2.20 ERA and 3.29 FIP in 126 2/3 innings dating back to the start of the 2022 season. That ERA is good for ninth among all relievers with at least 100 innings of work across the past two seasons, ahead of elite closers like David Bednar and Emmanuel Clase and just behind the likes of Jhoan Duran and Brusdar Graterol.

Relievers always come with risk involved, and that’s especially so for this pair of southpaws. Both players have had significant ups and downs over the past three seasons, and while each figures to fill the same late-inning bullpen role they vastly different pros and cons. Chapman has the name recognition and track record as a longtime closer, and is still capable of elite velocity as shown by his dominant performance in 2023. With that being said, 2022 showed just how far things can go off the rails for the lefty if he loses even a tick or two of that elite velocity, and his 15.6% walk rate since the start of the 2021 campaign seems unlikely to go down much at this stage of his career.

By contrast, Moore is anything but a known commodity given his rollercoaster history as a former top prospect and longtime journeyman starting pitcher who has only recently broken out as a dominant reliever. He lacks the premium velocity Chapman offers, having average 94 mph on his heater in each of the past two seasons, but has been among the very best relievers in baseball the past two seasons and has shown the ability to improve around the margins of his profile by cutting his walk rate nearly in half this past season. Also of note is that Moore, who will celebrate his 35th birthday in June, is nearly a year and a half younger than Chapman, who turns 36 next month.

Which southpaw would MLBTR readers rather have on their team in 2024? Do you feel Chapman’s lengthy track record and high-end velocity is too valuable to pass up, or do you prefer Moore’s recent dominance and stronger command?

AL Notes: Mariners, White Sox, Stroman, Yankees

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The Mariners have been busy on the trade market of late, swapping Robbie Ray for Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSclafani in a deal with the Giants while acquiring lefty slugger Luke Raley in a swap with the Rays that sent infielder Jose Caballero to Tampa. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto recently spoke to reporters (including Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times) about the deals and the club’s plans for the remainder of the offseason.

Dipoto described the moves as making the Mariners’ roster “more complete” than it has been at any point in the offseason and suggested that if the regular season were to start tomorrow, the club would be satisfied with its roster as currently constructed. The additions of Raley and Haniger certainly shore up the roster’s corner outfield spots, which were the most glaring holes on the roster following the departures of Jarred Kelenic and Teoscar Hernandez. Even as the outfield appears to be set, however, the club’s infield depth took a hit when Caballero was shipped to the Rays. That leaves the Mariners with just Josh Rojas, Luis Urias, and Dylan Moore to handle second and third base with J.P. Crawford entrenched at shortstop and Ty France penciled in as the club’s everyday first baseman.

Despite Dipoto’s vote of confidence in the roster as currently constructed, he left the door open to the Mariners making additional moves as the offseason continues. “…I don’t think we’re done,” Dipoto said (as relayed by Divish), “We still have the desire to find ways to get better. And we certainly have the flexibility from a roster standpoint to go do that.” While it’s unclear how much room the Mariners have remaining in their budget this winter, Dipoto’s comments certainly make it feasible that the club could look to shore up their infield depth before the offseason comes to a close. Gio Urshela, Whit Merrifield, and Amed Rosario are among the mid-level free agent infielders still available on the market.

More from around the American League…

  • The White Sox are continuing to shuffle their front office after hiring Chris Getz as GM on the heels of the club’s midseason firing of Rick Hahn and Kenny Williams last year. According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the club is hiring longtime Royals executive Jin Wong as an assistant GM. Wong will handle many of the duties previously assigned to assistant GM Jeremy Haber going forward, as Nightengale adds that Haber is expected to depart the club’s front office before Spring Training begins next month. Wong spent 24 years as a member of the Royals organization after first joining the organization in the scouting department back in 2000. Over his time in Kansas City, Wong filled a variety of roles before eventually rising to the title of VP of baseball administration and assistant GM.
  • Nightengale also reports that free agent right-hander Marcus Stroman has approached the Yankees to express “serious interest” in signing with the club, though he adds that the club has not reciprocated that interest with a contract offer at this point. Stroman, whose free agency MLBTR profiled last week, pitched solidly with the Cubs last year en route to a 3.95 ERA and 3.58 FIP in 136 2/3 innings of work. While the Yankees are in the market for pitching, recent reporting has suggested that the club is focused on top-of-the-market southpaws Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery in free agency, both of whom are generally considered to be a tier above Stroman who stands as one of the stronger mid-market options remaining in free agency.

Latest On Yankees’ Starting Pitching Pursuits

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The Yankees are well-established as seeking an arm to pair with ace Gerrit Cole at the front of their rotation. For much of the offseason, the club had their sights set on NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto, though they’ve had to shift gears in the aftermath of the right-hander’s decision to sign with the Dodgers last month. The club has seemingly stepped those pursuits up recently as recent reports have connected the club to both right-hander Dylan Cease via trade and southpaw Blake Snell in free agency. Jon Heyman of the New York Post provided an update on the club’s pitching pursuits recently, noting that “there’s a belief” within the organization that the club will be successful in adding a front-of-the-rotation arm before the season begins. Heyman adds that club chairman Hal Steinbrenner is “on board” with the idea of making a significant addition to the rotation, suggesting a willingness on the side of ownership to spend on rotation improvements.

Of course, commitment to adding a front-of-the-rotation starter and actually doing so are two different things, and Heyman reports that the club has continued to engage with Snell in free agency, though there’s a notable gap between the sides in negotiations. The same goes for left-hander Jordan Montgomery, though Heyman notes that the Yankees believe they have a better shot of signing Snell among the two southpaws. Montgomery, of course, was drafted by the Yankees in the fourth round of the 2014 draft and spent six and a half seasons in the Bronx before being shipped to St. Louis at the 2022 trade deadline.

Heyman suggests that Montgomery may prefer to return to the Rangers this offseason after winning the World Series with the club last year. Even if that’s the case, however, it’s worth noting that Texas’s front office has indicated the club doesn’t have much room in the budget for significant additions. That could pose a major roadblock to a Montgomery reunion in Arlington, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post recently reported that the left-hander is seeking a contract that would surpass the $172MM Aaron Nola re-signed in Philadelphia for back in November. That ask still positions him as cheaper than Snell, who Sherman notes is believed to be seeking more than $200MM this winter.

As for Cease, Heyman notes that the White Sox and Yankees face a “serious gap” in negotiations, with Yankees brass uncertain whether or not Chicago truly plans to move Cease before the beginning of the season and Heyman noting they’d face in uphill battle in outbidding other potential suitors like the Reds and Orioles for the righty’s services. With that being said, Cease isn’t the only player the Yankees are looking into on the trade market. Heyman reports that the club has discussed a trade with the Marlins as the club fields interest on lefties Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers, and Braxton Garrett as well as right-hander Edward Cabrera, though he adds that those sides don’t appear to be close on a deal, either.

Even so, the Marlins could prove to be a cleaner fit as a trade partner for the Yankees than the White Sox. Miami has a clear need for a starting shortstop as things stand; the club currently has utilityman Jon Berti penciled into the everyday shortstop role with the likes of Vidal Brujan and Xavier Edwards as potential depth options. New York, meanwhile, has plenty of depth in the middle infield, where 2023’s double play duo of Anthony Volpe and Gleyber Torres figure to block youngster Oswald Peraza from regular playing time in the majors. While the Yankees were recently granted additional flexibility in how they handle Peraza via a fourth option year on the slick-fielding infielder, the 23-year-old could make plenty of sense as the centerpiece of a package that lands the Yankees a quality rotation piece.

However the Yankees end up addressing their rotation woes, it’s clear that the club needs to make an addition. Each of Michael King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vasquez, Luis Severino, and Domingo German have parted ways with the club this offseason by way of either trade or free agency, severely hampering the club’s rotation depth. While Cole provides the club with a reliable, innings-eating ace at the front-of-the-rotation, both Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes are coming off 2023 season hampered by injuries and ineffectiveness. Clarke Schmidt’s first season as a regular member of the starting rotation saw him perform on the level of a back-end starter, but without an external addition the club’s final rotation spot would go to an unproven arm such as Clayton Beeter or Luis Gil.

KBO’s KIA Tigers Sign Wil Crowe

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The Korea Baseball Organization’s KIA Tigers announced last night that they’ve agreed to terms with right-hander Wil Crowe on a one-year deal worth $800K guaranteed with incentives that could take the deal to $1MM (h/t to Dan Kurtz of MyKBO). Crowe spent the 2023 season with the Pirates but was outrighted off the club’s roster over the summer and released back in November.

Crowe, 29, was selected by the Nationals in the second round of the 2017 draft and made his debut with the club during the shortened 2020 campaign. The righty struggled during his cup of coffee in D.C. with a 11.88 ERA in 8 1/3 innings of work across three appearances. That would ultimately prove to be Crowe’s only appearances in a Nationals uniform, as the right-hander was shipped to Pittsburgh alongside fellow right-hander Eddy Yean on that offseason in a deal that netted the Nationals first baseman Josh Bell.

Upon joining the Pirates, Crowe was placed into the club’s rotation for the 2021 season. The assignment did not go well, as the right-hander posted a 5.48 ERA and 5.67 FIP in 116 2/3 innings of work across 26 appearances (25 starts). While he struck out a respectable 21.2% of batters faced in 2021, the right-hander struggled with his command and walked opposing hitters at a 10.9% clip. The struggles in the rotation prompted a shift to the bullpen in 2022, and Crowe found success in that role for much of the season.

Crowe posted a solid 3.12 ERA and 3.41 FIP in his first 51 appearances (66 1/3 frames) in 2022 as he strikeout and walk rates improved to 22.1% and 9.8%, respectively. Unfortunately, Crowe ran out of gas late in the year and struggled to a whopping 13.03 ERA over his final nine appearances, walking 11 and striking out just seven in 9 2/3 innings of work. The brutal finish to an otherwise solid season saw opposing hitters tee off against Crow to the tune of a .378/.500/.689 slash line as his ERA ballooned to 4.38 on the season. While he returned to the Pirates in 2023, the right-hander made just five appearances before being sidelined by shoulder discomfort and outrighted off the roster in July.

Going forward, the right-hander will get the opportunity to revitalize his career overseas. By joining the Tigers, Crowe will make more than the major league minimum while occupying one of three spots on the team the club can offer to foreign players. Outfielder Socrates Brito occupies another of those spots, while right-hander Thomas Pannone departed in favor of a minor league deal with the Cubs last month after spending the 2023 campaign with the Tigers overseas.

Mets Sign Sean Manaea To Two-Year Deal

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The Mets announced the signing of left-hander Sean Manaea to a two-year contract. It’s reportedly a $28MM guarantee for the Boras Corporation client, who can opt out following the 2024 season. Manaea will make $14.5MM next season, leaving him with a $13.5MM call on the ’25 option.

Manaea, 32 in February, was a first-round pick by the Royals back in 2013 and was swapped to the A’s alongside Aaron Brooks in the 2015 deal that brought Ben Zobrist to Kansas City. The southpaw made his big league debut in Oakland early in the 2016 season and fashioned a solid rookie year for himself with a 3.86 ERA and 4.08 FIP across 144 2/3 innings of work. Manaea continued to provide mid-to-back end of the rotation consistency for Oakland over the next few seasons, and he owned a career 3.94 ERA (105 ERA+) and 4.15 FIP in 464 innings by the end of the 2018 season. Unfortunately, the lefty’s success was interrupted by shoulder surgery late in the 2018 campaign and he missed nearly all of 2019.

Upon his return to action late in the 2019 season, Manaea more or less picked up right where he left off. In 48 starts from 2019-21, the left-hander posted a solid 3.73 ERA (111 ERA+) with a strong 3.64 FIP. During this stretch, Manaea saw his strikeout rate climb considerably. Though he entered the 2019 season with a rate of just 19.2% for his career, the lefty struck out 24.8% of batters faced over the next three seasons while walking just 5.2% and generating a 43.8% groundball rate that was a near match for his 44.1% figure in the first three seasons of his career. With just one year left before the lefty would hit free agency and the team going nowhere in 2022, the A’s shipped Manaea to San Diego as the Padres in a four-player deal, netting a pair of prospects for the left-hander’s services.

Unfortunately, Manaea began to struggle upon departing Oakland. The lefty’s lone season in San Diego was something of a disaster as he struggled to a 4.96 ERA, 24% worse than league average by ERA+, with a 4.53 FIP. Manaea’s strikeout rate dipped to 23.2%, his walk rate climbed to 7.5%, and he generated grounders at a career-worst 38.2% clip. While the southpaw mostly looked like himself in the first half of the season, with a 4.11 ERA and 4.07 FIP in 100 2/3 innings of work (17 starts), that production fell off a cliff down the stretch as he allowed a whopping 6.44 ERA over his final 13 contests. Those struggles led Manaea to sign a two-year, $25MM deal with the Giants last offseason that gave him the option to return to the free agent market this winter.

At first, Manaea’s time with the Giants saw similarly disastrous results as his final outings with the Padres the previous year. The lefty was booted from the club’s rotation in early May and by mid-June had put together a 5.84 ERA in 49 1/3 frames as opposing batters teed off to the tune of a hefty .474 slugging percentage. However, as MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald noted in a recent profile of Manaea, the lefty added a sweeper to his repertoire at the end of May and found massive success with it. Hitters struggled to a .140/.161/.163 slash line against the pitch, swinging and missing at it 35.1% of the times it was thrown.

After adding the sweeper, Manaea quickly found more success with the Giants. He pitched to a solid 3.78 ERA with a fantastic 3.26 FIP in his final 81 frames of the season, and excelled in a late-season return to the rotation with a 2.25 ERA and 3.21 FIP in four September starts. After adding the sweeper midseason, Manaea punched out 24.2% of batters faced while walking 6.6% and generating grounders at a 44% clip reminiscent of his days in Oakland. While the majority of that success came in multi-inning relief, the lefty nonetheless flashed the form that made him a successful mid-rotation arm earlier in his career.

The strong late-season results led Manaea to decline his $12.5MM player option with the Giants and return to the open market. The decision worked out well for the southpaw, as his $28MM pact with the Mets comes with an AAV of $14MM and the ability to return to opt out of the deal once again next winter should he choose to do so. Manaea slightly outperformed the two-year, $22MM prediction MLBTR offered when ranking him 35th on our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, earning an additional $3MM annually over the same term. The deal is mostly in line with the market for back-end starters this offseason, which has seen the likes of Nick Martinez ($26MM) and Kenta Maeda ($24MM) earn similar guarantees on two-year arrangements.

By adding Manaea, the club adds another veteran arm to a rotation mix that parted ways with both Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander at the trade deadline last summer. The southpaw figures to return to starting full-time in joining the Mets, slotting into the middle of the club’s rotation behind incumbents Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana and ahead of fellow offseason additions Luis Severino and Adrian Houser. The addition of Manaea allows the club to utilize the likes of Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi and Jose Butto as depth options at the Triple-A level or in the club’s bullpen. The same figures to go for lefty David Peterson when he returns from offseason hip surgery sometime next summer.

The Mets were already over the highest luxury tax threshold of $297MM prior to signing Manaea, That means his full $14MM is part of the Mets’ overage coming into 2024. Assuming they remain over the highest tax threshold all season, the club figures to pay $15.8MM in taxes on Manaea’s salary next season, meaning the club effectively figures to pay $29.8MM for the lefty’s services in 2024. Of course, that’s unlikely to be much of a concern for the Mets as the club paid over $100MM into the luxury tax this past season. With the club’s rotation mix now likely settled, the Mets figure to continue searching for help at third base, DH and in the bullpen going forward.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the Mets were signing Manaea to a two-year, $28MM guarantee with an opt-out. The Associated Press reported the salary breakdown.

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