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Extension Faceoff: Odubel Herrera vs. Ender Inciarte

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The Phillies and Braves have been on remarkably similar paths this winter, seeking to boost near-term performance without jeopardizing their long-term rebuilding plans. Most notably, that has involved collecting veteran pieces (especially starters) on expensive, one-year deals.

While neither of the N.L. East rivals appear to be ready to add truly significant, long-term pieces via free agency, both were willing to make targeted investments to enhance their control over their own players this winter. Specifically, Philadelphia and Atlanta found common ground with their young center fielders, Odubel Herrera, who turns 25 on Thursday, and Ender Inciarte, who just turned 26.

It’s probably not entirely coincidental that the two pacts — struck within about a week of one another — were structured so similarly. Both players are in the 2+ service class, meaning they each already had four years of team control to go, though Inciarte had qualified as a Super Two. Instead, each player committed at least one would-be free-agent year to his team, in exchange for nearly identical guarantees: Herrera gets $30.5MM, Inciarte $30.525MM. The only meaningful difference came on the option front. The Phils can control Herrera for two more seasons (at $11.5MM and $12.5MM), while the Braves only get one additional year of control over Inciarte, but need pay him only $9MM to utilize it.

Of course, the two are hardly identical players. Herrera possesses a bigger bat, having produced at a 111 wRC+ rate over his first two MLB seasons, while Inciarte is more of a league-average hitter. Though both add value with their legs and gloves, the latter is the more accomplished in both regards. All things considered, both have established themselves as solidly above-average regulars and appear set to provide plenty of value to their respective employers over the duration of their new contracts.

Herrera arguably comes with greater upside, given the increasing power (and improved walk rate) he demonstrated last year. But you could also reasonably suggest that Inciarte’s superior value in other aspects of the game makes him a surer bet to remain a quality center fielder into his early thirties. So, just for fun, which player’s contract looks like the better bet? (Those using the Trade Rumors mobile app can weigh in here.)

Matt Wieters Among Braves’ Targets

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Although the Braves have three experienced major league catchers in the fold, free agent backstop Matt Wieters is on their target list, a club source told Jim Bowden of ESPN. Atlanta’s first reported interest in Wieters came back in November, but ESPN’s Buster Olney noted then that the team was unlikely to meet agent Scott Boras’ asking price. It doesn’t seem Wieters’ market has since developed in an ideal fashion for him or Boras, though, which means the longtime Oriole might end up with a lesser deal than expected. That could enable the Braves to add him at a discounted cost and lead to a homecoming of sorts for Wieters, who played college baseball at Georgia Tech.

Baltimore is the only major league organization the 30-year-old Wieters has known, but the club may have closed the door on re-signing the four-time All-Star when it picked up Welington Castillo last week. Castillo had been on the radar of the Braves, who have Tyler Flowers, Anthony Recker and Tuffy Gosewisch on hand. General manager John Coppolella acknowledged Wieters’ ability Friday, but he indicated he’s content with his current trio of backstops.

“Matt (Wieters) is a talented player,” he told MLB Network Radio. “It would come down to price and years. We’re happy with what we have now.”

The Braves’ incumbent starter is the 30-year-old Flowers, while Recker and Gosewisch each have minor league options remaining. Flowers doesn’t carry Wieters’ track record or name recognition, but he was the superior option last season. In 325 plate appearances, the right-handed Flowers batted .270/.357/.420 (well above his lifetime mark of .232/.302/.384 in 1,720 PAs). Defensively, Flowers graded quite well in the pitch–framing department, as he’s done throughout his career, though a whopping 60 of 63 runners successfully stole on him. Those struggles were new for Flowers, who typically hovered around the league-average caught-stealing mark as a member of the White Sox from 2009-15.

Wieters has fared better than Flowers at gunning down would-be base stealers (23 of 66 last season and 33 percent to Flowers’ 23 percent during their careers), but he hasn’t been a well-regarded framer over the past few seasons. In a sport that’s putting more emphasis on catchers’ receiving skills, that’s potentially a reason Wieters is still on the market. It’s also not helping the switch-hitting Wieters’ cause that he slashed an underwhelming .243/.302/.409 in 464 trips to the plate last season after posting a more palatable .258/.320/.423 line in 3,004 PAs from 2009-15.

Braves Sign Andrew Albers To Minor League Contract

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  • The Braves have inked swingman Andrew Albers, a 31-year-old left-hander who will head to his fifth organization since the Padres selected him in the 10th round of the 2008 draft. The majority of Albers’ work last year came with the Twins’ Triple-A affiliate in Rochester, where he recorded a 3.69 ERA, 6.08 K/9 and 2.17 BB/9 in 21 starts and 124 1/3 innings. Albers also amassed six appearances and two starts with the Twins in 2016 and has a combined 79 big league frames to his credit between Minnesota and Toronto. The lion’s share of that action came with the Twins in 2013, when Albers started 10 games and registered a 4.05 ERA, 3.75 K/9, 1.05 BB/9 and 43.5 percent ground-ball rate across 60 innings.

Braves Extend Ender Inciarte

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The rebuilding Braves have been working to assemble a new core of players for the past two years, and on Friday they locked up the first member of that group for the long haul when they announced a five-year contract extension for center fielder Ender Inciarte.

The contract, which contains a club option for a sixth season, will reportedly guarantee Inciarte $30.525MM. The Octagon client will receive a $3.5MM signing bonus before earning $2MM in 2017, $4MM in 2018, $5MM in 2019, $7MM in 2020 and $8MM in 2021. The option is reported to be valued at $9MM and comes with a $1.025MM buyout. All told, this new contract will give Atlanta control over two of Inciarte’s would-be free-agent years.

Ender Inciarte

“We are thrilled to announce an extension for Ender,” GM John Coppolella said in a press release announcing the move. “We feel that he’s the best defensive center fielder in baseball and one of the best leadoff hitters in the game.  Ender brings so much to our club, on and off the field, and we are happy to have him under club control for at least the next six years.”

Originally acquired in last winter’s Shelby Miller heist, Inciarte cemented himself as a Major League asset in 2016 by largely recreating a 2015 breakout. Over the past two seasons, he’s been roughly league-average overall at the plate — .297/.345/.395, nine homers in 1139 plate appearances — with excellent contributions on the basepaths and especially in the outfield. Inciarte has swiped 37 bases in 263 games dating back to 2015, and Fangraphs rates him as one of the game’s 15 best baserunners.

Meanwhile, he’s been 17 runs above average in the outfield despite missing some time due to injury, per Defensive Runs Saved, while Ultimate Zone Rating has him at about +13 runs in that same time frame. Among players with at least 1000 defensive innings since 2015, UZR/150 has Inciarte tied for 14th (with Anthony Rendon) among players of all positions, at +14.1, placing him a shade behind the likes of Lorenzo Cain and Mookie Betts in the outfield.

[Related: Updated Atlanta Braves Payroll Projections]

Inciarte, who just turned 26 after the season ended, was eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter as a Super Two player and was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $2.8MM in his first trip through that process. He’ll instead avoid arbitration for the entirety of his career thanks to this deal, which will keep him under team control through his age-31 campaign. The contract is nearly identical, in terms of its guarantee, to the one inked by division-rival center fielder Odubel Herrera in Philadelphia last week (though Herrera did not qualify as a Super Two player and, as such, conceded to two club options instead of one). It also represents a step forward from the five-year, $23.5MM deal that Adam Eaton signed with the White Sox prior to the 2015 campaign when he, too, was between two and three years of big league service time (though also shy of Super Two status).

While Inciarte has been frequently mentioned as a speculative trade candidate as Coppolella and president of baseball operations John Hart have overseen an aggressive rebuild, the emergence of a new five-year deal seems to firmly indicate that Atlanta sees the standout center fielder as a long-term building block. Inciarte is likely to be flanked by Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis in 2017, though there’s a definite possibility that fellow speedster Mallex Smith (who made his Major League debut this past year) eventually gets a chance at a larger role in the Atlanta outfield, either later in the 2017 season or in 2018.

Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports first reported the agreement and the guarantee (Twitter links). FOX’s Ken Rosenthal reported the year-to-year breakdown of the deal (also via Twitter).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Hart On Braves' Rebuild

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  • Braves president of baseball operations John Hart spoke with MLB.com’s Hal Bodley about the parallels between the rebuild he’s helped to architect in Atlanta and the one that he led in Cleveland back in the early to mid-90s. Hart also discussed the team’s decision to promote Dansby Swanson this past summer and the decision to add a trio of veteran starters — Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey, Jaime Garcia — this winter despite the team’s bulk of young pitching. “We didn’t want to stand in the way of our young pitchers, so we went with guys who I think are going to give us innings,” said Hart of adding three starters on one-year commitments. “I think this gives us a more competitive ballclub going into the new park. I don’t think this deviates from the plan we have.”

Mallex Smith Likely To Begin 2017 In Minors

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  • With outfielders Ender Inciarte, Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis in possession of starting spots, the Braves are leaning toward having Mallex Smith begin 2017 with Triple-A Gwinnett, writes Mark Bowman of MLB.com. “[Smith] is a talented player, but he still needs more development,” president of baseball operations John Hart said. “At the same point, Mallex is interesting because he can do a lot of things for you. He can [play] all three outfield positions and he can run. But the question we are asking ourselves is, ’Are we doing him a disservice and ultimately ourselves a disservice by making him a role or bench player?'” The 23-year-old Smith factored heavily into Atlanta’s lineup during the first half of last season, but he fractured his left thumb in June and didn’t return until September. All told, the speedy Smith hit .238/.316/.365 with three home runs and 16 steals in 215 plate appearances as a rookie. The Orioles reportedly asked for Smith in exchange for reliever Brad Brach earlier this month, but the Braves turned them down.

Swanson Unavailable In Trade Talks

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  • Dansby Swanson is “as close to untouchable as any Brave right now,” David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes, as John Hart and John Coppolella are both very impressed by the young shortstop’s on-field talents and off-the-field intangibles.  “I don’t think you can put any playables or comparisons on him, I just know we’re better with him, and the whole is greater than the parts. This is a special guy that makes people around him better,” Coppolella said.  The White Sox reportedly wanted Swanson as part of a Chris Sale trade package earlier this offseason but the Braves refused to part with the former first overall draft pick.

Braves To Sign Lane Adams

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  • Righty Stephen Fife and first baseman Tyler Moore are the newest additions to the Marlins organization, per Eddy (on Twitter). Fife, 30, saw time in three years for the Dodgers and owns a 3.66 ERA in his 91 major league frames. After missing time for Tommy John surgery, he returned to make ten Triple-A starts in the Cubs organization in 2016, working to a 4.58 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9. Moore, meanwhile, spent parts of four years in the majors with the Nationals, but struggled in limited action last year at the Braves’ top affiliate.
  • Outfielder Lane Adams is headed to the Braves on a minors pact, also via Eddy (on Twitter). The 27-year-old has exceedingly brief major league time, but has spent the past several seasons in the upper minors. Last year, with the Yankees and Cubs organizations, Adams put up a .266/.342/.388 batting line and swiped 44 bags to go with ten home runs over 481 plate appearances split between Double-A and Triple-A.

Braves To Sign John Danks

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The Braves have agreed to a minor-league deal with left John Danks, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter). Danks, 31, was said to be seeking a comeback opportunity. He’ll earn at a $1.5MM annual rate for any portion of the year he spends in the majors, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets.

Though he pitched in 2016, Danks made his last appearance in May. He never joined another organization after being cut loose by the White Sox after his first four starts of the year. In that span, Danks lasted 22 1/3 innings and coughed up 18 earned runs on 28 hits with 16 strikeouts against 11 walks.

There was a time, of course, when Danks routinely logged around 200 innings of sub-4.00 ERA pitching annually. But those days are well in the past at this point; Danks did top 190 frames in 2014, but has allowed at least 4.7 earned runs per nine in every season dating back to 2012.

That 2012 season was a notable one for Danks and his former organization. He had signed a five-year, $65MM extension the winter before, but ended up making only nine starts before undergoing shoulder surgery. Needless to say, he hasn’t been the same since. And his fastball has never again averaged over ninety miles per hour.

Though the heater bottomed out last year at less than 88 mph, and Danks has shown little to suggest he can return to his form of yore, there’s little risk here for Atlanta. The ill-fated contract extension is now a thing of the past, and the Braves will be happy to add some depth with a minimal commitment. While the club already has added three rotation pieces this winter, and may still be looking for more, it’s a staff that certainly could end up in need of reinforcement at some point.

Braves To Sign Emilio Bonifacio

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  • The Astros added infielder Reid Brignac on a minor-league deal, Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle reports on Twitter. His contract includes a spring invite. Brignac, 30, has bounced around quite a bit since his days as a frequent contributor to the Rays earlier in his career, appearing most recently with the Braves. The former top prospect has appeared in each of the last nine major league seasons, but hasn’t cracked 100 plate appearances in a single year since 2011. All told, Brignac owns a .219/.264/.309 batting line over 951 trips to the plate in the majors.
  • The Braves have a minor-league deal in place to bring back infielder Emilio Bonifacio, Cotillo tweets. Now 31, Bonifacio has played in the majors in ten consecutive seasons. But his opportunities have dwindled of late, and he spent most of 2016 at Triple-A. In his 471 plate appearances at Gwinnett, Bonifacio slashed a solid .298/.356/.369. He could conceivably challenge for a utility role next spring.
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