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When CC Sabathia Put A Team On His Back

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We’re 12 years removed from one of the highest-impact trade deadline deals in recent history. On July 7, 2008, the Indians parted with homegrown star and pending free agent CC Sabathia, sending the left-hander to the Brewers for first baseman/outfielder Matt LaPorta, southpaw Zach Jackson, righty Rob Bryson and a player to be named later who became outfielder Michael Brantley. In hindsight, it may have been a win-win transaction.

When the Brewers made the bold move to acquire Sabathia, they were mired in a seemingly interminable playoff drought that went back to the early 1980s. But the team and then-general manager Doug Melvin saw a way out when they picked up Sabathia, who joined a roster that was 49-40 at the time. There were some terrific players on that club – Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Mike Cameron, J.J. Hardy and Ben Sheets were among them – but Sabathia became the face of the franchise down the stretch and all but willed the Brewers to the postseason.

Already a three-time All-Star and the reigning AL Cy Young winner when he became a Brewer, the 28-year-old won 11 of his 13 decisions and posted a 1.65 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 after heading to Milwaukee. His workload was enormous, too, as Sabathia amassed 130 2/3 innings across 17 starts in Milwaukee and piled up seven complete games in the process. Sabathia’s final complete game of the year came when he pitched the Brewers to the playoffs in their regular-season finale with nine innings of one-(unearned) run ball in a victory over the Cubs (here are Bob Uecker and Brian Anderson’s calls of that triumph for Milwaukee).

The Cubs did take the National League Central with ease, finishing with 97 wins to the Brewers’ 90, which set the Brew Crew up to face the Phillies in the NLDS. That proved to be the end of the line for the Brewers, who were no match for the eventual World Series winners and fell in four games. As excellent as he was during the season, Sabathia had nothing left against the Phillies, who battered the workhorse for five earned runs in 3 2/3 innings in Game 2 – his lone appearance of the series. That proved to be the final Brewers outing for Sabathia, as he left for a far bigger payday than they were able to offer in the next offseason. Sabathia signed with the Yankees for seven years and $161MM, and the now-retired 39-year-old further continued to make a resounding Hall of Fame case while wearing pinstripes.

While Sabathia wasn’t a Brewer for long, they don’t regret his magical run in their uniform or the long-awaited return to respectability he helped provide as a member of the team. That’s not say they came away from the trade unscathed, though. None of LaPorta (a once-promising prospect), Jackson or Bryson were impactful in the majors, but Brantley has been outstanding for the most part. A seventh-round draft pick of the Brewers and now a soon-to-be 33-year-old member of the Astros, Brantley has put together a lifetime line of .297/.354/.439 in 5,120 plate appearances. The majority of the damage has come in an Indians uniform, but they weren’t contenders in 2008 and weren’t going to re-sign Sabathia, so selling him for the best possible return made sense.

Losing Sabathia certainly hurt for Cleveland, but getting several productive seasons out of Brantley made for a nice consolation prize. Conversely, it must have stung the Brewers to see what Brantley turned into, but neither they nor their fans will ever forget what Sabathia gave them over a couple incredible months.

Pittsburgh’s Promising Middle Infield

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If you hear the names Frazier and Newman, you might think of a couple shows from the 1990s NBC television schedule (yes, I know the great sitcom’s spelled “Frasier”). In this case, though, we’re talking about the Pirates’ modern-day middle infield. Although the team looks as if it’s a ways away from returning to contention, it does seem to have a promising second base-shortstop combination in Adam Frazier and Kevin Newman. They’re two of the reasons why all hope isn’t lost for a franchise that has cratered in recent years after it went to the playoffs in each season from 2013-15.

Looking back to 2013, Frazier was a sixth-round pick (that means he wouldn’t have been selected this year) who topped out as Baseball America’s 27th-ranked Pirates prospect after the 2015 campaign. As BA noted then, Frazier somehow went three seasons at Mississippi State without hitting a home run, but he has since shown more pop in the majors. Last season was his second straight 10-HR showing, which isn’t saying much in such a power-happy era, but he has still been a roughly average offensive performer since debuting in 2016. He’s the owner of a respectable lifetime .279/.342/.420 line and a 103 wRC+ across 1,574 plate appearances, and he managed a decent fWAR of 2.2 in 608 PA last year. And while Frazier’s penciled in as the Pirates’ second baseman, he’s versatile enough to move around the diamond if they find a better option there. The 28-year-old has logged a substantial amount of time in the outfield, where he has played all three spots, and has seen a bit of action at shortstop and third base.

Newman, 26, has also shown off a good amount of versatility, having lined up at both middle infield positions, third and in left since he got to the majors in 2018. The majority of Newman’s work has come at short, though, and that’s a position he has on lockdown – at least, until rising prospect Oneil Cruz gets to MLB.

Even if Cruz does reach the league sometime soon and bump Newman off short, the club may still have a keeper in the latter. A first-round pick in 2015 and a former top 100 prospect, Newman impressed in his first full season in 2019 with 2.4 fWAR and a .308/.353/.446 line with 12 homers and 16 steals in 531 PA. Newman doesn’t hit the ball that hard or bring a lot of power to the table, but he’s a fast runner who consistently makes contact. Those factors make him a good candidate to continue posting high averages. Just four hitters outdid Newman’s strikeout percentage of 11.7 last season, and only three bettered his 87 percent contact rate.

Frazier and Newman aren’t exactly exciting players, but they could make for a nice, inexpensive duo for the Pirates going forward. They’ll combine for less than $3.5MM this year, which is important for a low-budget Pirates team that will put a dirt-cheap roster on the field if a season does happen. Of the two, though, Newman seems more likely to stick around for longer, considering he has five years of control left to Frazier’s three. The Pirates haven’t been shy about selling off players with dwindling team control, but perhaps that will change with new general manager Ben Cherington at the helm. In the meantime, the hope for Pittsburgh is that Frazier and Newman will continue as the effective, low-cost performers they’ve been so far.

A Front-Line Starter Who Got Away From The Rangers

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Going back to his first season in the majors in 2014, just 11 other starters have outdone Cubs right-hander Kyle Hendricks’ 3.14 ERA. That owes largely to an ability to limit walks, as Hendricks has issued just a bit over two free passes per nine innings during his career, as well a penchant for preventing damaging contact. Even though his typical fastball only clocks in around 86 mph, hitters can’t seem to square up Hendricks. Just last season, he ranked in the majors’ 97th percentile in exit velocity and its 88th percentile in hard-hit rate. It went down as yet another quality effort by Hendricks, who turned in a 3.46 ERA/3.61 FIP with his second-highest fWAR (4.1) across 177 innings.

Not many could have expected Hendricks to pan out this well. The Rangers chose the former Dartmouth standout in the eighth round in 2011 (keep that in mind when unpicked players start signing after this year’s truncated five-round draft); although he went on to put up great production at the lower levels with the Rangers, he was never seen as a can’t-miss prospect. And at the July 2012 trade deadline, a little over a year after the Rangers drafted Hendricks, they traded him and third baseman Christian Villanueva (then a top 100-caliber prospect but now a member of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball) to the Cubs for veteran righty Ryan Dempster.

Dempster, who originally entered the pros as a third-rounder of the Rangers in 1995, got off to a strong start in 2012 before the Cubs traded him back to his original franchise. As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes wrote when the swap occurred: “Dempster posted a 2.25 ERA with 7.2 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a 42.1% ground ball rate in 104 innings with the Cubs this year.”

Unfortunately for Texas, Dempster was unable to carry his Windy City effectiveness to the Lone Star State. While the Rangers did earn a playoff berth in 2012, they didn’t make it past the one-game wild-card round, and Dempster didn’t play much of a role in their regular-season success. He wound up tossing 69 innings of 5.09 ERA ball with the team before leaving for the Red Sox in free agency during the ensuing offseason. That proved to be a wise move for the last year of his career, as Dempster ended up as part of a World Series-winning Red Sox roster.

Dempster didn’t play a major role in Boston’s title, but Hendricks has gone on to be a key part of a championship winner since switching organizations. The Cubs took home their first World Series in 108 years in 2016, a season in which Hendricks recorded a league-best 2.13 ERA in 190 frames and added an jaw-dropping 1.42 ERA in 25 1/3 playoff innings. Three years later, the Cubs locked up Hendricks to what has always looked like an eminently reasonable contract extension, inking him to a $55.5MM guarantee over four seasons prior to the 2019 campaign.

We don’t know when we’ll see Major League Baseball again, but considering Hendricks’ track record, it seems safe to assume the 30-year-old will continue to hold his own when it does return. He’s one of the most valuable players on the Cubs, but he’s also one who got away for the Rangers.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2 Years Ago, The Mets Cut Ties With A Former Star

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It seems like ancient history now, but right-hander Matt Harvey used to be considered among the majors’ elite players. A 2010 seventh overall pick of the Mets, Harvey debuted in the bigs in 2012 and truly broke out the next season with 178 1/3 innings of 2.27 ERA ball. From his first taste of MLB action until 2015, Harvey posted a 2.53 ERA with 9.46 K/9 and 1.98 BB/9 over 427 frames, earned an All-Star bid and was part of a pennant-winning team. Harvey, Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom were supposed to form an unstoppable trio atop the Mets’ rotation for the long haul, but it wasn’t to be, as Harvey experienced a dramatic fall from grace during his time in their uniform.

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Injuries have been an all-too-common problem for Harvey, who underwent Tommy John surgery on his pitching elbow in October 2013 and sat out all of of the next season. Harvey made a triumphant return to win NL Comeback Player of the Year honors in 2015 – the latest season in which the Mets went to the World Series – but it wasn’t a campaign devoid of controversy for the hurler who became known as the Dark Knight. He and agent Scott Boras pushed for a limit of 180 innings for the year, but Harvey ended up exceeding that amount with ease, tossing 189 1/3 frames in the regular season and racking up another 26 2/3 in the playoffs. The workload may have been too heavy for his taste, but Harvey was actually great that October – including an eight-inning, two-run effort in a Fall Classic-deciding, Game 5 defeat to the Royals. Little did anyone know that shining moments would be so few and far between for him since then.

Rewinding to 2016, you’d have a hard time finding many regular starters who have been worse than Harvey. He underwent thoracic outlet surgery in July of that year, and that now looks like a death knell in hindsight. Now 31 years old, Harvey’s the owner of a 5.56 ERA – the third-highest figure among all qualified starters – in his most recent 390 innings.

Having seen enough of Harvey, the Mets – once justified in believing he was a true ace – gave up on him exactly two years ago. It was on May 8, 2018, that the Mets traded Harvey to the Reds for catcher Devin Mesoraco – another once-promising player who didn’t pan out as hoped. Harvey turned out OK as a Red, contributing 128 innings of 4.50 ERA ball en route to an $11MM guarantee with the Angels during the next period of free agency. Likewise, Mesoraco wasn’t horrible as a member of the Mets, with whom he batted .222/.306/.409 in 229 plate appearances. But neither player is even in baseball at this point.

Mesoraco has all but retired after sitting out the 2019 campaign. Harvey could still resume his career, but it’s not looking good. The former front-end starter was so ineffective in his lone year with the Angels that they released him in July. Harvey did catch on with the Athletics on a minor league contract after that, but he didn’t crack their big league roster at all, and there have been few rumblings about him since he elected free agency at the outset of offseason. In fact, MLBTR’s archives have just two somewhat recent news items on Harvey – one on how he auditioned for the Blue Jays as a reliever during the winter and another saying the Mets aren’t interested in reuniting with him. It’s a stunning descent for a pitcher who was among the best during his Mets heyday.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Choi’s The (Ji-) Man

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Rays first baseman Ji-Man Choi has been a quietly productive member of the team’s offense over the past couple seasons. The Korea-born Choi –  previously with the Mariners and Orioles – got off to a slow major league start with the Angels in 2016, evidenced by an unimpressive .170/.271/.339 line in 129 plate appearances in his first taste of MLB experience. That caused the Angels to outright Choi for the second time, and he wound up declining that assignment to join the Yankees prior to the 2017 season.

Choi only totaled 18 plate appearances with the Yankees, who then became the latest team to kick him off their 40-man roster in July 2017. While Choi joined the Brewers on a minor league contract in the ensuing offseason, they didn’t give him much of a chance in the majors. After he took 30 at-bats with the big club, the Brewers traded Choi to the Rays in June 2018 for infielder Brad Miller.

The Choi-Miller deal didn’t come off as an exciting one when it occurred, but it’s clear who came out on the better end in hindsight. Miller, now a Cardinal, amassed a mere 74 at-bats as a Brewer in his lone year with the team and was unable to produce much of anything in his brief time with the club. On the other hand, the Rays have stumbled on a pretty good offensive piece in the 28-year-old Choi, who has batted .263/.365/.472 (127 wRC+) with 27 home runs and 3.0 fWAR in 676 plate appearances since he first donned a Tampa Bay uniform.

Last year, his first full season in the bigs, Choi hit .261/.363/.459 (121 wRC+) with 19 homers in 487 PA to help the Rays to 96 wins and a playoff berth. If we’re to believe Statcast, it was not a fluky showing, considering Choi ranked well above average in categories such as expected weighted on-base average, exit velocity and hard-hit percentage. Meanwhile, FanGraphs estimates that Choi’s performance in 2019 gave the Rays $15.5MM in value, far outweighing the league-minimum salary he made.

The Rays could continue to profit from Choi’s presence in future seasons, as he’s controllable for four more years and one more pre-arbitration season, but that’s not to say he’s without obvious flaws. The clearest problem is that the left-handed Choi has had issues versus southpaw pitchers. The sample size isn’t large (125 PA), but lefties have held Choi to a woeful .185/.288/.296 (64 wRC+) since he got to the majors. That’s clearly not going to get the job done, though the well-constructed Rays are flexible enough that they should be able to shield Choi from facing lefties going forward. The offseason acquisition of righty first baseman Jose Martinez – a renowned destroyer of lefties – ought to help matters.

In typical Rays fashion, Choi and Martinez should provide the small-budget club great production at a minimal cost. Martinez will make less than $2.5MM this season, giving the Rays a potentially terrific offensive tandem at first base for around $3.3MM. You have to get especially creative in building a roster when you don’t have much money to spend, and the Rays’ front office has done just that time and again. The Choi acquisition, although it looked unimportant at the time, is one of many reasons the Rays could enter 2020 (if there is a season) as one of the teams to beat.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Steal 26 Players And Build A Roster

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Here’s a fun exercise during a time without much real baseball: Imagine you’re an expansion general manager who can take one player from 26 of the game’s 30 rosters to build a full major league team. You can’t steal any prospects, though, so someone like Wander Franco’s off limits, and there are going to be occasions where you’ll have to draft for need instead of talent. That might mean passing on someone’s superstar for a comparatively nondescript player at a different position. For the most part, you also have to take affordability and team control into account. Here’s what I came up with…

National League East:

  • Braves – Ronald Acuna Jr., outfielder: A 22-year-old superstar who’s signed to a team-friendly contract through at least 2026 (and possibly ’28 depending on club options)? Don’t mind if I do.
  • Nationals – Juan Soto, outfielder: I’ve quickly filled my starting corner outfield with Acuna and Soto, 21. The spectacular Soto brings five years of team control to the table.
  • Mets – Jacob deGrom, starting pitcher: He’s on the wrong side of 30 (he’ll be 32 in June) and owed $120.5MM through 2023, but I’m OK with spending big on a back-to-back National League Cy Young winner. I’ve got my ace.
  • Phillies – Aaron Nola, starting pitcher: Nola will probably be a back-end starter on this team, which is not a knock on him. The soon-to-be 27-year-old’s a proven righty who will make roughly a guaranteed $35MM through 2022. That’s not much relative to his value, and Nola’s also controllable in 2023 by way of what currently looks like a reasonable $16MM club option.
  • Marlins – Brian Anderson, third baseman/outfielder: He’s overqualified for a bench spot, but that’s a role Anderson will fill on this roster. He’ll be in the mix for four years, including one more pre-arbitration season.

National League West:

  • Dodgers – Walker Buehler, starting pitcher: There are certainly multiple appealing options in LA, but I’ll take the budding ace in Buehler, who’s 25 and won’t become a free agent until after 2024.
  • Diamondbacks – Ketel Marte, middle infield/outfield: This is an easy pick, as the versatile 26-year-old is fresh off a near-MVP season and will continue to play on a bargain contract for a few more seasons. He’ll make a combined $14MM over the next two years, and comes with a pair of affordable club options totaling $22MM.
  • Giants – Pass.
  • Rockies – Scott Oberg, reliever: Kind of a strange pick when the likes of Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Jon Gray and German Marquez are on the roster, but I’m picking for need here and trying to keep the budget down. Oberg, 30, put up his second straight terrific season in 2019, and having inked a three-year, $13MM deal in December, the hope is that he’ll continue to provide plenty of surplus value.
  • Padres – Emilio Pagan, reliever: Passing on Fernando Tatis Jr. looks insane, but I feel OK about finding a high-end young shortstop later. This is another need filled at a low price – Pagan, 29, is quietly excellent and under control through 2023.

National League Central:

  • Cardinals – Jack Flaherty, starting pitcher: Sign me up for a front-end rotation piece who’s 24 and won’t be eligible to hit free agency until after 2023.
  • Brewers – Josh Hader, reliever: Christian Yelich is the best player on the Brewers and maybe the best player in the NL. However, I already have my corner outfield set with Acuna and Soto, and I have a certain someone in mind for center. That leaves me with the two-time reigning NL Reliever of the Year in Hader, another star who’s not slated to visit the open market until after 2023.
  • Cubs – Willson Contreras, catcher: I’ve got my starting backstop, a big-hitting, cannon-armed 27-year-old with three seasons’ control left. That sounds good. I’ll have that.
  • Reds – Pass. Many talented players on the Reds, but no one who fits on this particular roster.
  • Pirates – Bryan Reynolds, outfielder: Like the aforementioned Brian Anderson, Reynolds is ridiculously overqualified for a bench role, but he’ll nonetheless be a sub on this club.

American League East:

  • Yankees – Gleyber Torres, shortstop: A Marte-Torres middle infield sounds pretty appealing. Torres is still just 23, and he won’t become a free agent until the conclusion of the 2024 campaign.
  • Rays – Nick Anderson, reliever: He’s not the best or most valuable player on the Rays by a long shot, but the 29-year-old Anderson’s yet another major threat out of the bullpen – one who fits this team. MLBTR’s TC Zencka recently wrote about Anderson’s ascent.
  • Red Sox – Rafael Devers, third baseman: The infield’s almost full now. Devers is a 23-year-old who nearly put up 6.0 fWAR in 2019 and still has four seasons of control remaining.
  • Blue Jays – Ken Giles, reliever: It would be easy to grab Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette here, but I don’t have starting spots for either one. Ergo, with relief help still a need, I’m taking the one-year rental in Giles.
  • Orioles – Pass.

American League West:

  • Astros – Yordan Alvarez, outfielder/first baseman: I’m picking the reigning AL Rookie of the Year, 22, as my designated hitter.
  • Athletics – Matt Olson, first baseman: The infield’s now complete. The 26-year-old Olson’s a power-hitting defensive standout who can’t be a free agent until after 2023.
  • Rangers – Jose Leclerc, reliever: This is another selection that puts need and affordability at the forefront. The flamethrowing Leclerc has four guaranteed seasons and less than $20MM on his deal, not to mention a $6.25MM club option for 2024.
  • Angels – Mike Trout, outfielder: Who else but a living legend? And who wouldn’t sign up for an outfield of Acuna and Soto flanking Trout?
  • Mariners – Tom Murphy, catcher: Contreras’ backup, and as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco wrote last month, someone who was really effective last season.

American League Central:

  • Twins – Taylor Rogers, reliever: This is another example of addressing a need over choosing a team’s top player, but that’s not to say Rogers is a slouch. The 29-year-old lefty has kept runs off the board with aplomb throughout his career and still has three years of control left.
  • Indians – Shane Bieber, starting pitcher: This soon-to-be 25-year-old workhorse comes with a half-decade of control.
  • White Sox – Aaron Bummer, reliever: In a vacuum, this is a bad pick. After all, the White Sox have the likes of Yoan Moncada, Yasmani Grandal, Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert and Lucas Giolito on their roster. Again, though, this is an example of mixing need with long-term affordability. Bummer, 26, was lights-out last season, and he signed a club-friendly extension after that.
  • Royals – Whit Merrifield, second baseman/outfielder: The All-Star will be coming off the bench, which is a testament to how good this roster is.
  • Tigers – Pass.

There you have it. Here’s an overview of the roster …

Starting Lineup:

  • Catcher – Willson Contreras
  • First baseman – Matt Olson
  • Second baseman – Ketel Marte
  • Shortstop – Gleyber Torres
  • Third baseman – Rafael Devers
  • Center field – Mike Trout
  • Right field – Ronald Acuna Jr.
  • Left field – Juan Soto
  • Designated hitter – Yordan Alvarez

Bench:

  • Brian Anderson, Bryan Reynolds, Tom Murphy, Whit Merrifield

Rotation:

  • Jacob deGrom, Aaron Nola, Walker Buehler, Jack Flaherty, Shane Bieber

Bullpen:

  • Scott Oberg, Emilio Pagan, Josh Hader, Nick Anderson, Ken Giles, Jose Leclerc, Taylor Rogers, Aaron Bummer

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Based on the criteria I followed, that’s my 26-man team. It was enjoyable and challenging to construct. Feel free to put together your own roster.

AL Notes: JDM, Red Sox, Astros, Click, Yanks, LeMahieu

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Let’s check in on some of the American League’s highest-profile clubs…

  • Major League Baseball handed down its decision on Boston’s sign-stealing scandal from its World Series-winning season in 2018 a couple weeks ago, stripping the Red Sox of their second-round pick this year and suspending scout/replay coordinator J.T. Watkins for the upcoming campaign. Count designated hitter J.D. Martinez among those who are not pleased with Watkins’ short-term ban. The superstar slugger told Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe, “They just ruined this guy’s career with no evidence.” In regards to the overall punishment, Martinez said to Abraham: “If they went to court with that, it would get thrown out. There was nothing there. The judge would laugh.” 
  • Speaking of teams that have recently been embroiled in sign-stealing scandals … Astros general manager James Click succeeded Jeff Luhnow atop the front office in the offseason as a result of the prior regime’s transgressions. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle profiles Click, how he has adjusted to the job, how the rookie GM’s trying to work through the coronavirus and how he’s attempting to change the culture of a franchise in turmoil. As you’d expect, Click has stayed in touch with owner Jim Crane and new manager Dusty Baker during the pandemic. Regarding the Astros as a whole, Click said to Rome: “I have a better feel for the organization now. While it’s not ideal to do it remotely, it is certainly something that can be done. It’s hard to say how much more of a feel I have for the organization, but definitely more, and I’m hoping they also have a feel for me. We’re all still getting to know each other.”
  • As we covered last week, the Yankees could lose one of their MVPs, infielder DJ LeMahieu, when free agency opens next offseason. Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News argues that they shouldn’t risk it, writing that the Yankees need to do all they can to keep the soon-to-be 32-year-old LeMahieu from hitting the market with an extension. LeMahieu stated in March that he and the Yankees haven’t engaged in “serious” negotiations, so it’s unclear how much of a priority he is for New York. However, you can’t go against Ackert’s point that he’s a key part of the team’s current roster. LeMahieu played all over the Yankees’ infield after signing a two-year, $24MM contract going into last season, slashed .327/.375/.518 with 26 home runs and 5.4 fWAR in 655 plate appearances, and was in the running for AL MVP honors.

The Rays Have To Love The Drake

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There are few better examples of a nomad in Major League Baseball than Rays reliever Oliver Drake. He was just a 43rd-round pick of the Orioles in 2008, so odds were against Drake turning into a viable major leaguer from the start. Drake persevered, though, despite having been a member of a half-dozen other organizations already. But it took Drake until the age of 32 to truly come into his own as part of the the Rays’ bullpen last season.

Back when the Rays acquired Drake from the AL East-rival Blue Jays in January 2019, MLBTR’s Steve Adams wrote: “Drake, 32 next week, is baseball’s most well-traveled player over the past calendar year. The right-hander pitched for a record-setting five teams in 2018, spending time with the Brewers, Indians, Blue Jays, Angels and Twins. Though he struggled with four of those clubs, Drake actually pitched quite well in Minnesota, giving the Twins 20 1/3 innings of 2.21 ERA ball with 22 strikeouts against seven walks over the life of 19 relief appearances.”

As Steve went on to point out, even though Drake couldn’t stick anywhere in 2018, he showed substantial promise when it came to missing bats, limiting walks and keeping the ball on the ground. Indeed, despite an ugly 5.29 ERA in 47 2/3 innings that year, Drake logged a 3.24 FIP with 9.63 K/9, 3.21 BB/9 and a 44.9 percent groundball rate. With the exception of FIP, Drake improved on every single one of those categories last season and turned into a solid member of the Rays’ bullpen, even though they designated him for assignment before the campaign began.

Drake officially joined the big club in late May last year, at which point I wrote that “the 32-year-old has only managed a 4.94 ERA in 23 2/3 Triple-A innings, though he has paired eye-opening strikeout and walk rates (15.21 K/9, 2.66 BB/9) with a 50 percent groundball mark.”

Drake’s run prevention issues went out the window from there, as he went on to record a 3.21 ERA/3.87 FIP over 56 innings. He was oddly quite dominant against left-handers, who registered an abysmal .156 weighted on-base average against him. Same-sided batters had a much better time (.357), but still, Statcast pegged Drake as a great reliever in at least a couple important categories. Drake wound up in the top 10 percent of the league in wOBA (.261, compared to a .279 xwOBA that didn’t come in that much higher) and strikeout percentage. He also logged an expected ERA (3.36) that rivaled his actual bottom-line results, and put up 11.25 K/9 against 3.05 BB/9 with a strong grounder percentage of 52.3.

The Rays couldn’t have asked for much more in 2019 out of Drake, especially considering they got him for just about nothing. And he was one of at least a few low-key success stories who aided in the success of their bullpen (we previously covered Nick Anderson and Colin Poche). Having earned relatively minimal salaries last season, the likes of Drake, Anderson and Poche are the types of players the small-budget Rays need to keep digging up if they’re going to continue to hang with the game’s big spenders in the standings. As a team coming off back-to-back seasons of at least 90 wins, they’ve clearly done a pretty good job of it lately.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

When Padres Gave Up An Eventual 2-Time Cy Young Winner

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Although right-hander Corey Kluber has been one of the most successful starters in recent memory, it’s not as if his he was a can’t-miss prospect who was expected to turn into the two-time American League Cy Young winner he became. Kluber entered the pros as a fourth-round pick of the Padres in 2007, but he wasn’t lights-out at preventing runs at the lower levels of the minors with them during his time with the franchise. The Padres eventually deemed Kluber expendable when they sent him to the Indians in a July 2010 three-team trade that also involved the Cardinals. The headliners then were outfielder Ryan Ludwick (he went from the Cardinals to the Padres) and righty Jake Westbrook (the Indians shipped him to the Redbirds). Little did anyone know Kluber would turn into the most valuable player in the deal.

Corey Kluber | Peter G. Aiken/USA TODAY Sports

If we go back a decade, Ludwick was amid a rather impressive run with the Cardinals, largely because of a 5.3-fWAR campaign in 2008 in which he posted a jaw-dropping 151 wRC+. While he fell back to earth from there, the Padres – who were playoff contenders in 2010 – expected him to at least serve as a solid regular in their uniform. But the Padres, despite winning 90 games that year, didn’t end up making the playoffs, and they never got much value from Ludwick. He slashed a weak .228/.301/.358 (86 wRC+) over 664 plate appearances in a Padres uniform in 160 games before they sold him to the Pirates in July 2011.

Ludwick’s subpar production in San Diego makes it all the more unfortunate that the team said goodbye to Kluber, who later evolved into one of the top starters of the past several years. Kluber came into his own in 2013, his first full season in the majors, and proceeded to post a sterling 2.96 ERA/2.89 FIP with 9.91 K/9 and 1.86 BB/9 across 1,238 2/3 innings through 2018.

As mentioned, Kluber took home a pair of Cy Youngs during his halcyon stretch. He also earned three All-Star nods, ranked 10th among all qualified starters in ERA, and helped the Indians to four playoff berths and three AL Central championships. Not bad for someone who was unheralded when the Indians got him. Westbrook, whom the Indians gave up, was quite good in their uniform at times, and he did enjoy success in St. Louis, but that’s nonetheless a trade that Cleveland would make again in light of how much Kluber blossomed as a member of the club.

However, now 34 years old, Kluber is no longer part of the team with which he broke out. After a disappointing, injury-ruined 2019, the Indians sent Kluber and his waning team control (he has a guaranteed one year, $18.5MM left on the five-year, $38.5MM pact the Indians gave him in 2015) to the Rangers for reliever Emmanuel Clase and outfielder Delino DeShields. It has never come off as an overwhelming return for Cleveland, especially in light of Clase’s recent 80-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs. Then again, Kluber didn’t look like a special pickup when he joined the Indians, and look how he panned out. Regardless of what happens with Clase and DeShields, you can’t argue with what the Indians got from Kluber when he was in their rotation. For the Padres, though, he’s a star who got away.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The Rays’ Next Breakout Reliever?

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Remember that February 2018 three-way trade among the Rays, Yankees and Diamondbacks? Tampa Bay parted with the most noteworthy player at the time in outfielder Steven Souza Jr., but injuries weighed him down in Arizona and kept him from making an impact there. He’s now a member of the Cubs. The most valuable commodity from the deal could be infielder/outfielder Nick Solak, whom the Rays acquired, though they sent him to the Rangers in a different trade last summer. But the Rays haven’t come away empty-handed from the Souza swap. They may actually have a breakout reliever on their hands as a result of that transaction.

In May 2018, a couple months after the Souza trade occurred, the Rays received pitchers Sam McWilliams and Colin Poche from the Diamondbaks to complete their end of the return. McWilliams was regarded as the better prospect at the time, and he’s still a member of the Tampa Bay organization, but he hasn’t reached the majors yet. Poche – a 26-year-old left-hander – has racked up some big league experience, on the other hand.

After dominating in 2018 with the Rays in Triple-A ball, where he posted a 1.08 ERA/1.75 FIP with 14.04 K/9 and 3.06 BB/9 in 50 innings, Poche’s run prevention numbers took a huge step backward at the minors’ highest level last year. Poche only put up a 6.26 ERA across 27 1/3 frames with the Durham Bulls, though he did manage a far better 3.00 FIP with an otherworldly strikeout/walk ratio (15.8 K/9 versus 2.96 BB/9).

The Rays called Poche up near the beginning of June, and he got off to a rocky start, allowing two earned runs and taking the loss against the Red Sox in his debut. Poche went on to surrender at least one earned run in each of his next two outings, and he hit a nadir when he gave up six in a defeat to the Yankees on July 16. That performance was a major reason why Poche concluded the season with a subpar 4.70 ERA/4.08 FIP over his first 51 2/3 innings in the majors, as was a paltry 18.3 percent groundball rate. Those numbers look pretty mediocre overall, but that’s not to say all hope is lost.

If you look at several other key categories, Poche was actually one of the best relievers in baseball last season. In fact, he finished no worse than 20th in the majors in strikeouts per nine (12.54), swinging-strike percentage (17.2), infield fly rate (16.2 percent) and batting average against (.180). The awful average hitters logged against Poche was no fluke, per Statcast, which placed him in the league’s 100th percentile in expected BA (.170). And Poche was in the 90-plus percentile in such categories as expected weighted on-base average and expected slugging percentage, to name just a couple.

There’s always concern about how lefties fare against righties, especially now that MLB is adopting a three-batter minimum rule. Poche seems equipped to handle batters of either handedness, however, as he allowed almost matching production versus lefties (.274 wOBA) and righties (.281) last season. A four-seam fastball that owned the opposition was one of the reasons for his success; although he doesn’t throw incredibly hard (93 mph), hitters struggled to a .276 wOBA/.266 xwOBA against the pitch, which he threw almost exclusively (88.5 percent) and which FanGraphs assigned high marks. However, as FanGraphs’ Michael Augustine observed over the winter, Poche may have relied too much on that offering and not enough on his breaking ball. There could be something to that. According to Statcast, that pitch – while limited in use – did hold hitters to a laughable .124 wOBA/.104 xwOBA.

Maybe if Poche does lean less on his fastball going forward, he’ll join the ranks of the top lefty relievers in baseball. That type of breakout can’t be dismissed, especially when talking about a member of the Rays’ bullpen. Just over the past couple seasons, they’ve seen the likes of Emilio Pagan (whom they’ve since traded), Nick Anderson (whose ascent was recently covered here), Oliver Drake and Chaz Roe blossom in their uniform. Poche’s not there yet, but he did impress in many ways last year, and it may not be long before he becomes the latest Rays reliever to turn into a major success story.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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