Theo Epstein Plans To Stay With Cubs
For the first time since 2014, the Cubs aren’t going to qualify for the postseason. They were in the driver’s seat for a playoff spot for most of the season, but a September collapse has doomed the club to a bitterly disappointing finish. The Cubs’ late-season demise will not lead president of baseball operations Theo Epstein to exit the organization, however.
Epstein shot down any speculation to the contrary Wednesday, saying (via Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com): “I’m here [with the Cubs]. We have a lot we need to work on to get back to the level we’re accustomed to. I’m invested in that. That’s what I’m focused on.”
Epstein added that the idea of “waking up and trying to build the next Cubs championship team” still excites him. The architect of Chicago’s curse-breaking title-winning team in 2016, Epstein has been enormously successful since he stepped down as Boston’s general manager in 2011 to run the Cubs. However, thanks to the unhappy ending to the Cubs’ season and the Red Sox’s need for a new leader in their baseball department, speculation arose of a possible Epstein-Boston reunion. If we’re to believe Epstein, though, the Red Sox will have to find Dave Dombrowski’s replacement elsewhere.
As things stand, Epstein still has another two seasons remaining on the five-year, $50MM extension he signed with the Cubs in September 2016. While Epstein’s immediate future in Chicago is secure, the same surely doesn’t apply to a fair amount of this year’s roster. He and the rest of his front office cohorts will spend the next several months trying to construct a team that doesn’t fall apart in crunch time, which figures to lead to quite a bit of offseason turnover. Even championship-winning manager Joe Maddon may not be safe. Maddon has made it known that he wants to manage the team for a sixth season in 2020, though he doesn’t have a contract beyond this year. Epstein declined to reveal when he’ll decide Maddon’s future, per Rogers.
Whether or not Maddon returns next season, he likely won’t have either of the Cubs’ top two players – third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant or shortstop Javier Baez – for the rest of 2019. Maddon said Wednesday (via Tony Andracki of NBC Sports Chcago) that it’s unlikely either will play again until next season. Bryant has been out since he sprained his right ankle last Sunday, while Baez has taken just two at-bats this month (none since last Saturday) after suffering a hairline fracture in his left thumb. The futures of both players will be on the minds of Epstein & Co. during the winter, when Bryant and Baez are each scheduled to go through arbitration for the second-last time.
Zack Wheeler Discusses Pending Free Agency
In what could be his final week in a Mets uniform, pending free-agent right-hander Zack Wheeler spoke about his future with Mollie Walker of the New York Post, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com and other reporters Wednesday. Unsurprisingly, the 29-year-old Wheeler doesn’t sound like someone who’s ready to commit to his current team with what could be a lucrative trip to the open market looming.
“I think you have to weigh your options when it gets to this point,” said Wheeler, who’s just over a month from becoming a free agent. “I love it here and I definitely would listen to these guys. But I think you have to weigh all your options and see what’s best for me personally at that point.”
Wheeler was both a trade and an extension candidate as recently as July, but the Mets neither dealt him nor locked him up. And there haven’t been any rumors regarding a new contract between the sides since then, so it appears increasingly likely Wheeler will test the market.
Considering the wide interest he drew prior to the trade deadline, the Mets probably could have gotten something for Wheeler back in July (though he was coming off shoulder issues at the time). However, even if he walks in free agency, they’ll still have a chance to land draft compensation for Wheeler – who looks like a surefire candidate to receive the qualifying offer. Wheeler would then have the option of accepting the one-year offer (which should be worth in the $18MM-$19MM neighborhood) and sticking with the Mets. As you’d expect, though, Wheeler prefers more security than the QO presents.
On the prospect of signing a multiyear pact, Wheeler stated: “Hopefully, yeah. Time will tell.”
Although Wheeler’s a former Tommy John patient who sat out for almost all of 2015-17 with arm injuries, he has spent the past two seasons making a strong case for a considerable multiyear payday. After firing 182 1/3 innings of 3.31 ERA/3.25 FIP ball in 2018, Wheeler has notched 187 1/3 frames of 3.99 ERA/3.47 FIP pitching this year. During that two-year span, Wheeler has struck out just under a hitter per inning while walking fewer than three per nine. Moreover, Wheeler boasts elite fastball velocity – the pitch clocks in at just under 97 mph – which should only make it easier for him to cash in during the coming months.
In the event Wheeler pitches for a different team in 2020, the top of the Mets’ rotation could still be in enviable shape. Ace Jacob deGrom might be a back-to-back NL Cy Young winner by then, while Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman make for fine complements. Then again, with all the trade rumors that have surrounded Syndergaard since last winter, perhaps he – like Wheeler – isn’t a lock to don a Mets uni next year.
Eric Hosmer’s 2019: More Of The Same
Clearly dissatisfied with yet another season well below the .500 mark, the Padres fired manager Andy Green last weekend. It didn’t come off as an unreasonable decision by the Padres, who didn’t make real progress in the standings in four years under Green (albeit during a rebuild) and who’d surely like to turn around their fortunes in 2020.
Green may have deserved his fate, but it’s difficult to lay all the blame at his feet when the club’s highest-paid players haven’t pulled their weight over the past couple years. Third baseman/shortstop Manny Machado, whom general manager A.J. Preller and the Padres stunningly reeled in for $300MM, has been good but not great in the first season of his 10-year contract. Outfielder Wil Myers received a six-year, $83MM extension after a career season in 2016, but his production has declined to a noticeable extent since. And then there’s first baseman Eric Hosmer, whose contract looks like the most regrettable of the three.
Even though they obviously weren’t going to contend in 2018, and even though there weren’t a lot of clear suitors for him, the Padres handed Hosmer an eight-year, $144MM guarantee prior to that season. At the time, it seemed you either loved the Padres’ bold choice or you hated it. To be sure, Hosmer had his high points as a Royal from 2011-17 – a span in which he helped the team to a pair of AL pennants, won a World Series, picked up an All-Star nod and took home four Gold Gloves. Along the way, the well-regarded Hosmer became one of the faces of baseball for the many who place a great deal of value on intangibles.
On the other hand, Hosmer was far from a consistent producer as a Royal. While Hosmer put up two seasons of 3.5 fWAR or better with the Royals, the other campaigns weren’t nearly as successful. Hosmer posted two years in the negatives in that category while a member of the Royals, and unfortunately for the Padres, that’s the version they’ve gotten since awarding him his payday.
Hosmer began his Padres career with a whimper in 2018, hitting .253/.322/.398 in 677 plate appearances. He managed minus-0.1 fWAR in the process, thanks in large part to his subpar batting line. Hosmer’s wRC+ (95) fell a good distance below the league average of 105 for his position.
This season has been more of the same for Hosmer. With less than a week to go, the soon-to-be 30-year-old has accounted for minus-0.2 fWAR and hit .271/.317/.430 in 649 trips to the plate. Hosmer’s OPS is better than it was a year ago, but his wRC+ (95) hasn’t improved (league average for first basemen in 2019 is 106). That isn’t where the similarities in output end, though, as you’ll see below…
Home runs – 2018: 18; 2019: 21
Isolated power – 2018: .145; 2019: .159
Weighted-on base average – 2018: .309; 2019: .315
Expected wOBA – 2018 – .310; 2019: .318
Hosmer has taken a somewhat different path in arriving at his near-identical production in 2019. He’s swinging a bit more, striking out more, walking less and making less contact. When Hosmer has made contact, he has hit more liners and fly balls, though his launch angle (minus-1.2 in 2018, plus-2.4 this year) remains extraordinarily low. In an era where more and more hitters have focused on elevating the ball (and in what many suspect is a juiced ball era), grounders continue to win the day for Hosmer. While his GB rate (55.9) has fallen by almost 5 percent since 2018, it’s nonetheless the second-highest figure among all qualified hitters.
Hosmer’s struggles putting the ball in the air have somewhat offset the gains he has made in the hard-contact department. He ranks in the league’s 78th percentile in average exit velocity (90.6) and its 87th percentile in hard-hit percentage (45.9), according to Statcast. But a well-struck grounder still typically leads to an out, and it doesn’t help matters that Hosmer’s lacking speed (this could be his first zero-steal season).
A quarter of the way into his expensive union with the Padres, it would be difficult to classify Hosmer’s San Diego tenure as anything other than a disappointment. Hosmer will still be entrenched in the club’s lineup going into 2020, but the Padres are likely going to need far more from their big-money first baseman if they’re going to make a noticeable jump in the standings.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Three Needs: Los Angeles Angels
We’re continuing with our “Three Needs” series, in which we take a look at the chief issues to be addressed for clubs that have fallen out of contention. We’ve already focused on the Mariners, Tigers, White Sox, Marlins, Rangers and Pirates. Now we’ll turn to the Angels. Despite the presence of the transcendent Mike Trout, they’ve posted their fifth straight non-playoff season and their fourth sub-.500 campaign in a row during what has been a year filled with adversity.
[Los Angeles Angels Depth Chart]
1. Pour Significant Resources Into The Rotation
Let’s be fair to the Angels right off the bat: Their rotation (and their franchise as a whole) is still reeling from the passing of left-hander Tyler Skaggs back in July. Not only was Skaggs a beloved teammate to those on the club, but he was one of the Angels’ top pitchers. That’s an irreplaceable combination, though the Angels have no choice but to carry on and try to improve their starting staff heading into 2020.
The good news for the Angels is that two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani should return to the mound next year. He threw just over 50 innings as a rookie in 2018 and then couldn’t pitch at all this season as a result of Tommy John surgery. Ohtani recently underwent another procedure – a left knee operation – but it shouldn’t prevent him from rejoining the Angels’ rotation at the beginning of the season. The flamethrowing Ohtani, Andrew Heaney and Griffin Canning (who enjoyed a respectable rookie season, albeit one that ended in August because of elbow issues) give the Halos’ starting staff at least a few legitimate reasons for hope heading into 2020. It’s harder to find obvious causes for optimism otherwise, though, evidenced in part by the AL-worst ERA and fWAR Angels starters have recorded this year.
In clear need of starters, the Angels figure to aggressively target help during the offseason. General manager Billy Eppler already spoke on the upcoming free-agent starter market back in August, saying, “I’m sure we’ll be sitting with [free agents] and seeing if something can be worked out.” Furthermore, although the Angels haven’t won any recent high-priced bidding wars for starters, Eppler didn’t close the door on bucking that trend.
So … enter Gerrit Cole? Not necessarily, but the Houston Cy Young candidate, Southern California native and pending free agent looks like a plausible target for the Angels. While the 29-year-old Cole could command $200MM–plus on his upcoming contract, the Angels have shown a willingness to make sizable long-term commitments under owner Arte Moreno (deals for Trout, Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton and Justin Upton spring to mind). And Cole would give the Angels’ injury-laden, underperforming rotation something it desperately needs: a workhorse ace who can provide 200 innings of top-line production.
It doesn’t have to be Cole or bust for the Angels, though he should be the franchise’s No. 1 target going into the offseason. If they can’t get him, though, there will be other worthy starters available in free agency. Stephen Strasburg (if he opts out of his Nationals deal), Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, Dallas Keuchel (whom the Angels pursued last winter), Jake Odorizzi and Kyle Gibson represent several other possibilities. The Angels could also explore a trade(s), but whether Eppler will want to make notable subtractions from a farm system he has focused on improving over the past few years remains to be seen. Either way, the Angels have to perform far better than they did in free agency a year ago, when they spent a combined $20MM on one-year contracts for starters Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill. Those pacts proved to be miserable failures for the team.
2. Upgrade Behind The Plate
The Angels went the one-year deal route to try to bolster their rotation last winter, and they did the same behind the plate. But the $3.35MM guarantee for Jonathan Lucroy went down as yet another regrettable move, as he struggled before the club released him in August. Lucroy, Max Stassi (who needs hip surgery), Anthony Bemboom, Kevan Smith and Dustin Garneau (who, like Lucroy, is out of the organization) have combined for negative-0.4 fWAR this year, making the Angels just one of five teams whose backstops have registered a minus number in that category.
It’s time for the Halos do better at the position. To their credit, the Angels at least made an attempt last offseason, courting the likes of Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos before those two went elsewhere. Grandal will be back on the market this winter, but the Brewer should do a lot better than the one-year, $18MM-plus guarantee he raked in during his previous stay in free agency. Would the Angels make such a commitment? It could depend on how much they dole out on starting help. There’s only so much money to go around, after all.
Free-agent options beyond Grandal are much less enticing. However, the likes of Jason Castro, Travis d’Arnaud and Robinson Chirinos could be upgrades over the catchers the Angels have leaned on this year. And Yankees backup Austin Romine might be a name to watch as a soon-to-be free agent who shouldn’t cost much. Eppler was in New York’s front office for the early stages of Romine’s major league career.
3. Determine Kole Calhoun‘s Future
The Angels are facing a tough decision on Calhoun, a career-long Angel who has been with the franchise since it spent an eighth-round pick on him in 2010. Now 31, Calhoun has evolved into a defensive standout who also offers capable offense. He has been solid in both regards this year en route to his fifth season with at least 2.0 fWAR, but that doesn’t mean the Angels will welcome him back in 2020. They could pick up Calhoun’s option for $14MM or buy him out for $1MM. For an Angels team with major issues to address elsewhere, it may be tempting to wave goodbye to Calhoun and spend the $13MM they’d save on him to address other areas of the roster. The club has a potential short-term replacement on hand in Brian Goodwin, who could occupy right field until super prospect Jo Adell is ready for a promotion next season.
Health Notes: Turner, Kepler, Wong, G. Sanchez
Nationals shortstop Trea Turner suffered a fractured right index finger April 3, and though the speedster made it back in mid-May, he’s nowhere near healthy, Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic details (subscription required). The index finger is a “swollen, disjointed mess,” per Ghiroli, whose piece includes quotes from Turner and some Nationals teammates and coaches in regards to his ability to play through it. Third baseman Anthony Rendon, who revealed to Ghiroli that Turner also broke his right middle finger, is in awe of the season he has had despite the injury. “I don’t know how he does it. When I messed up my thumb or whatever earlier in the year, you can’t even hold a bat,” said Rendon. “You don’t realize you need to use all your freaking fingers, but he can’t, which is even more impressive.” The Nationals locked up a wild-card spot Tuesday with a doubleheader sweep of the Phillies. All Turner did was collect three hits, including two doubles, in Game 1 and then belt a go-ahead grand slam in a come-from-behind victory in the evening.
- Twins outfielder Max Kepler has been dealing with left shoulder issues since Sept. 8, when he left a game against Cleveland after swinging awkwardly. The ailing Kepler hasn’t taken an at-bat in almost two weeks (Sept. 14), and it’ll be a little while longer before he does. The breakout 26-year-old is currently planning to make it back “no later than the beginning of a possible postseason series,” Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com writes. The Twins are on the verge of clinching the AL Central, so avoiding the wild-card game will give Kepler a bit of extra time to get ready for a first-round series.
- The left hamstring strain Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong suffered last Thursday is a Grade 2 tear, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. That likely sounds worse than it is, as Wong’s hopeful he’ll be able to come back during the Cardinals’ final series of the regular season. The Redbirds are closing in on a division title thanks in part to Wong, a .285/.361/.423 hitter with 11 home runs and 24 stolen bases in 549 plate appearances. His absence has enabled Matt Carpenter to get back into the Cardinals’ everyday lineup at third base, while highly productive rookie Tommy Edman has taken over for Wong at the keystone.
- Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez is hoping to return from a groin strain this weekend, James Wagner of the New York Times tweets. That would give Sanchez a bit of time to tune up before the AL East champions’ first-round series. The slugger hasn’t played since Sept. 12, which has left New York’s catcher position to Austin Romine and Kyle Higashioka.
AL West Notes: Correa, McHugh, Gallo, Pence, La Stella
Checking in on a few AL West clubs…
- The Astros made shortstop Carlos Correa a late scratch for their game Tuesday after he complained of tightness in his lower back, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. Considering how important Correa is to the World Series contenders’ cause, not to mention his history of back issues, it looked like a startling development for the club. Manager A.J. Hinch brushed off concerns about Correa’s status, though, saying: “It sounds a lot worse than what it seems like it is. But when you make a proactive move there’s going to be some sense of curiosity as to what it is. But it is very important for us to be smart this week.”
- While Correa appears to be fine, teammate Collin McHugh continues to look as if he’s done for the season. The Astros halted the right-hander’s throwing program last week after a setback with his injured elbow, and he still hasn’t resumed throwing, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com tweets. With that in mind, we may have seen McHugh take the mound in a Houston uniform for the last time. The sixth-year Astro is set to become a free agent after the season. Overall, the year has been an injury-riddled disappointment for McHugh, but he has rebounded as a reliever after beginning 2019 in disastrous fashion as a starter.
- It’s “fairly evident” Rangers outfielder Joey Gallo won’t play again this season, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram writes. Gallo, who has been out since June 24 with a right hamate fracture, hasn’t swung a bat during the recovery process. With the season just about over for the eliminated Rangers, there’s no sense in rushing the star slugger back. Meanwhile, designated hitter Hunter Pence is definitely done for the year, Wilson relays. The Rangers have also had to go for a while without Pence, whom a back injury has shelved for just over a month. While the soon-to-be 37-year-old Pence wants to return to the Rangers in 2020, it’s unclear how motivated they’ll be to re-sign the pending free agent.
- After an arduous recovery from the fractured right tibia he suffered July 2, it appears Angels infielder Tommy La Stella will make it back this season. Assuming La Stella gets through a base-running session unscathed on Wednesday, he could see time at DH during the Angels’ season-ending series against Houston, Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com reports. La Stella’s devastating injury came shortly before what would have been the 30-year-old’s first All-Star appearance – an honor he earned thanks to a .300/.353/.495 line and a career-high 16 home runs in 312 plate appearances.
AL Notes: Epstein, Red Sox, Royals, Twins, Duffey
With the Red Sox seeking a new leader for their baseball operations department and the Cubs in free-fall mode, some have wondered whether there’s a path to a surprise reunion between the Boston organization and current Chicago president of baseball ops Theo Epstein. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe examines the basis for such speculation while providing a general overview of the early stages of Boston’s search. Epstein, of course, previously served as the Red Sox’ GM from 2002 until he left for Chicago in 2011. The Cubs have been a power for the majority of Epstein’s tenure there, and though this season has gone south for the club, there’s no indication he’s interested in leaving. Epstein’s under contract through 2021 on the record extension he signed with the Cubs in 2016. Nevertheless, some believe that the Red Sox “will want to see if they have a chance of reeling in some of the biggest fish in the executive seas,” Speier explains, and Epstein would certainly qualify. It’s an interesting look at the situation that’s worth a full read for anyone that finds the possibility intriguing.
More from the American League…
- The next person who calls the shots in Boston may have a decision to make on right-hander Rick Porcello, who’s due to become a free agent. In all likelihood, though, Porcello will reach the open market on the heels of a difficult season. The former AL Cy Young winner spoke to Rob Bradford of WEEI about his upcoming trip to free agency, saying: “You know my situation. You know what I’m headed into. I have no idea what is going to happen. We’ll see. Until you get to an offseason and you see what is going to be there for you don’t really know what is going to affect you.” Porcello, who will turn 31 in December, is wrapping up the four-year, $82.5MM extension Boston gave him when it acquired him from Detroit in 2015. For the most part, the deal worked out for the Red Sox, but the results haven’t been to either party’s liking this year. Porcello owns the game’s second-highest ERA (5.56) among qualified starters.
- The retiring Ned Yost is in his final few days as the Royals’ manager, but it appears it’s going to be several weeks before the club finds his replacement. The Royals don’t expect to hire Yost’s successor until their forthcoming sale from David Glass to John Sherman goes through, according to general manager Dayton Moore (via the Associated Press). The franchise might not change hands until November, the AP notes. “I would never hire a manager … without complete 100 percent support of my boss,” Moore said.
- Twins righty Tyler Duffey has somewhat quietly morphed into an elite reliever as this season has progressed. The 28-year-old hasn’t allowed an earned run since July 23 – a span of 22 1/3 innings in which he has struck out 22, walked none and allowed six hits. Chip Scoggins of the Star Tribune credits the data-driven approach of Minnesota’s front office and pitching coach Wes Johnson for the rise of Duffey, who owns a 2.26 ERA with 12.61 K/9 and 2.26 BB/9 in 55 2/3 innings for the year. At the encouragement of Johnson and assistant pitching coach Jeremy Hefner, Duffey has all but bagged his sinker – once his primary pitch – and has focused on elevating his four-seam fastball. Duffey told Scoggins he bought into the radical shift in approach “from Day 1.” The results, including an uptick in velocity and a dramatic increase in swinging-strike rate, have been impossible to argue with.
Blake Treinen, Lou Trivino Done For Season
The Athletics shut injured reliever Blake Treinen down for the regular season last week, but the hope then was that he’d return from the stress reaction in his back for a potential playoff run. That’s now out of the question, though, as Treinen’s officially done for the year, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Meanwhile, fellow righty reliever Lou Trivino is “likely” finished for 2019 as a result of a cracked rib, according to Slusser. Trivino suffered the injury when he slipped in his shower earlier this month.
While Treinen and Trivino were two of the Athletcs best relievers just a year ago (the former was historically good), they don’t look like enormous losses for the hard-charging A’s this season. Neither has pitched in a couple weeks, and when the two have taken the mound, they’ve been anything but lights-out.
It’s especially surprising how much the 31-year-old Treinen declined this season. Treinen notched an otherworldly 0.78 ERA (1.82 FIP) across 80 1/3 innings in 2018, when he also posted 11.2 K/9 with 2.35 BB/9 and converted 38 of 43 save chances. But everything trended the wrong way in 2019 for Treinen, whom injuries helped limit to 58 2/3 innings of 4.91 ERA/5.15 FIP ball with 9.05 K/9 and 5.68 BB/9. He also blew five of his 21 save attempts and lost his spot as the A’s closer to Liam Hendriks.
Now, it’s up in the air whether Treinen has thrown his final pitch as an Athletic. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams pointed out last week, Oakland will face an offseason decision on whether to tender Treinen a contract for next year. He earned $6.4MM this season and will collect a raise over that figure if he makes his last trip through arbitration over the winter.
There are no such financial concerns with Trivino, who’s still in the pre-arb phase. The 27-year-old wasn’t the dominant force Treinen was in 2018, but Trivino more than held his own as a rookie setup man. Trivino didn’t offer particularly valuable results this year, however, as he struggled to a 5.25 ERA/4.54 FIP with 8.55 K/9 and 4.65 BB/9 over 60 frames.
Poll: Will The Phillies Fire Gabe Kapler?
The Phillies still have a handful of games remaining, but their loss to the division-rival Nationals on Tuesday afternoon all but ended their season. Philadelphia dropped to 79-77, officially eliminating the team from playoff contention and leaving it to look ahead to the winter. The Phillies were more aggressive than any other franchise in baseball last offseason, which led to hope they’d put an end to a lengthy playoff drought as early as this year. Instead, though, they’ve now gone eight straight seasons without a berth, and second-year manager Gabe Kapler could be one of the fall guys for their most recent failings.
Just last week, general manager Matt Klentak credited Kapler for “doing a very good job,” adding that “the group is playing hard down the stretch.” But the Phillies entered the second game of Tuesday’s doubleheader mired in a stretch of five losses in six games, and the Nats outscored them 21-4 over the first three matchups of their series. That skid “speaks loudly of a dead team playing out the string,” opines NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury, who notes that owner John Middleton will have more say than Klentak in deciding Kapler’s future.
After Middleton authorized a few high-cost acquisitions last offseason, including Bryce Harper‘s historic $330MM contract, it’s possible he’ll now decide to look elsewhere in the dugout. There has been improvement this year compared to last season’s 80-82 finish, though the Phillies arguably haven’t progressed enough under Kapler. The team collapsed in the second half of last year, when it led the NL East with a 65-52 record as late as Aug. 12 before sputtering to a 15-28 mark over its final 43 contests. While this season’s squad didn’t control the division as late into the summer, it was in first place with a 38-29 record on June 11. Since then? Forty-one wins, 48 losses.
In fairness to Kapler, injury and pitching issues have played obvious roles in the demise of the 2019 Phillies. While the team wouldn’t solve those problems with a managerial change, they could nonetheless help hasten Kapler’s exit. If that happens, perhaps the Phillies will reverse course on their next managerial hire and look for an established option (Joe Girardi? Joe Maddon?) rather than a neophyte to lead their 2020 roster.
(Poll link for app users)
Will the Phillies fire Gabe Kapler?
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Yes 75% (9,295)
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No 25% (3,119)
Total votes: 12,414
Three Needs: Texas Rangers
We’re bringing back our “Three Needs” series, in which we take a look at the chief issues to be addressed for clubs that have fallen out of contention. We’ve already focused on the Mariners, Tigers, White Sox and Marlins. Now we’re on to the Rangers, who surprisingly hung in playoff contention for the season’s first few months. Reality has set in as the year has progressed, though, leaving Texas on track for its third consecutive sub-.500 season. With a new ballpark opening in 2020, Rangers general manager Jon Daniels could oversee an aggressive winter in an effort to get the club back to being a legitimate playoff contender. We already argued that upgrading at catcher should be on Daniels’ offseason to-do list, so we’ll leave that position out of this piece and focus on other areas Daniels could address in the next several months…
1. Consider Major Changes In The Infield
Arguably no team in the league has been worse off in the infield than the Rangers, whose first, second, third basemen and shortstops have combined for a paltry 2.5 fWAR. Utilityman Danny Santana and second/third baseman Nick Solak, an August call-up, are the only members of the group who have posted above-average offensive numbers. Although Santana’s numbers have dramatically plummeted over the season’s final couple months, he could again play an important multi-positional role for the Rangers in 2020. And Solak, whom the Rangers acquired back in June, is probably someone they will count on for plenty of at-bats next season. Things aren’t as promising otherwise, though, as Ronald Guzman has been one of the game’s worst offensive first basemen for the second straight year, and the well-compensated double-play tandem of second baseman Rougned Odor and shortstop Elvis Andrus has fallen flat.
Texas brass has made its disappointment with the production of Guzman (whom the club optioned earlier in the summer), Odor and Andrus known this year, which could suggest the team will try to upgrade at those spots. The contracts of Odor and Andrus are problematic, however, with the former still owed $36MM through 2022 and the latter under wraps for the same period of time for $43MM.
At the very least, Andrus figures to return as the Rangers’ main shortstop next year, though it doesn’t appear the team’s inclined to hand him a starting spot. How the Rangers handle the rest of their infield could depend in part on where they expect Santana and Solak to primarily line up. Either may spend a lot of time at third, but the Rangers could reportedly prioritize the position in the offseason, meaning it’s possible they’ll attempt to reel in a big fish via free agency. The top free agent-to-be at the position, Nationals MVP candidate Anthony Rendon, happens to be from Texas. That could give the Rangers a bit of an edge in courting him. He’ll likely command a contract worth $150MM or more, though. If that’s too rich for the Rangers’ blood, fellow pending free agents Josh Donaldson and Mike Moustakas would provide upgrades for the club at more palatable prices. The free-agent lists at first and second base are decidedly less exciting, but the Rangers shouldn’t have to spend a ton of money at either position to get better production in 2020 than the weak output they’ve received from those places this season.
2. Find Some Complements To Lance Lynn And Extension Candidate Mike Minor
The Rangers’ starting staff ranks a solid 10th in the majors in fWAR (11.7), but almost that entire total (10.4) has come from two pitchers: Lynn and Minor. Daniels struck gold in free agency on that pair, adding Lynn on a three-year, $30MM guarantee last offseason and Minor for three years and $28MM going into 2018. The Rangers’ rotation will need at least one more pickup along those lines during the upcoming winter, as the unit doesn’t offer much beyond Lynn, Minor and the 22-year-old Kolby Allard – an in-season acquisition who has performed adequately over eight starts.
Baseball’s best pending free agent, Astros righty and potential AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole, may well land on the Rangers’ radar. But the Rangers will be among a slew of other teams in on Cole if they enter that race, which could culminate in a $200MM-plus contract for him. Daniels showed with the Lynn and Minor signings that he doesn’t necessarily have to back up the Brink’s trick to find front-line starter production in free agency, and with those two around, maybe the Rangers will focus more on mid- to back-end rotation pieces than a ridiculously expensive ace like Cole. Either way, they could work to extend Minor, who’s under contract for just one more year. Trading Minor looked like a possibility as recently as July, but the Rangers opted against it. Perhaps they’ll revisit that possibility in the offseason, though they’ll certainly be hard-pressed to push for a playoff spot next season if they deal Minor prior to then.
3. Explore A Joey Gallo Extension
Injuries have been a problem over the past few months for Gallo, who fractured his right hamate bone July 23 and hasn’t played since. However, when he has taken the field this season, Gallo has performed like a franchise-caliber position player. While the 25-year-old’s penchant for striking out has continued in 2019, he has nonetheless slashed .253/.389/.598 (144 wRC+) with 22 home runs and 3.3 fWAR in 297 trips to the plate. Defensively, Gallo has graded as a plus player in both left and center field.
Gallo’s high-end production this season has come at a minimal salary, but those days are about to end for the soon-to-be arbitration-eligible slugger. Texas can still control him for three more years even if it doesn’t extend him, but the club should arguably try to lock him up now off an injury-plagued season. Granted, considering Gallo’s a Scott Boras client, doing so wouldn’t be easy. Back in May, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News posited it could take a seven-year, $150MM offer to extend Gallo, though that was before injuries knocked his season off track. In any case, if the Rangers are convinced Gallo’s a true organizational centerpiece, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them attempt to sign him for the long haul.