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Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

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The Brewers reached the playoffs for the fifth time in sixth seasons, but were upset and swept out of the Wild Card Series by the Diamondbacks, triggering a quick start to what might be a somewhat transformative offseason.  Longtime manager Craig Counsell is out of contract come November and has been non-committal about his future in Milwaukee, while the Brewers face tough decisions on a trio of prominent players.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Christian Yelich, OF: $136.5MM through 2028 (includes $6.5MM buyout of 2029 mutual option)
  • Aaron Ashby, SP: $18.5MM through 2027 (includes $1MM buyout of 2028 club option; Brewers also hold $13MM club option for 2029 with no buyout)
  • Freddy Peralta, SP: $7MM through 2024 (includes $1.5MM buyout of 2025 club option)

Total 2024 commitments: $32.75MM
Total future commitments: $162MM

Option Decisions

  • Mark Canha, 1B/OF: $11.5MM club option for 2024 ($2MM buyout)
  • Wade Miley, SP: $10MM mutual option for 2024 ($1MM buyout)
  • Andrew Chafin, RP: $7.25MM club option for 2024 ($725K buyout)
  • Justin Wilson, RP: $2.5MM club option for 2024 ($150K buyout)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2024 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

With speculation swirling for years about the possibility of David Stearns leaving the Brewers to run the Mets’ front office, a subsection of rumors also formed around Counsell, whose contract (like Stearns) was up at the conclusion of the 2023 season.  Stearns’ deal allowed him to start negotiating with other teams on August 1, and it took a little over a month before Stearns indeed ended up as New York’s new president of baseball operations.  Firing Buck Showalter was one of Stearns’ first decisions as PBO, thus leaving the Mets in need of a new manager.

Brewers owner Mark Attanasio has been open about his desire to retain Counsell, though the skipper asked that any contract talks be put off until after the season.  This would seemingly set the stage for Counsell to make a clean exit to Queens, or perhaps to one of the other managerial vacancies (Giants, Guardians, Angels) around the game, or maybe to a season or two away from baseball entirely to recharge his batteries.  Only Counsell knows what his next step will be, and should he indeed depart, Attanasio and president of baseball operations Matt Arnold will have to add a new managerial hire to the top of the offseason to-do list.

Though Stearns, possibly Counsell, and possibly at least one of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Willy Adames won’t be back next season, it doesn’t seem like the Brewers will entertain the idea of a rebuild.  This is still a talented roster that just won 92 games, and both Attanasio and Arnold seem committed to the idea of perpetual contention in the model of the Rays or Guardians, without the need to ever fully tear things down like other medium-to-small market teams.

That still means some tough budget decisions will have to be made, however.  This offseason has always been seen as something of a flashpoint for the Burnes/Woodruff/Adames trio, as all three are entering their final trip through the arbitration process and are scheduled for free agency following the 2024 campaign.  As per Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections for MLBTR, the trio are set to earn roughly $39.1MM in salary next year.  Combined with the $26MM that Christian Yelich will receive, that’s four players covering around $65.1MM in payroll for a team whose entire Opening Day payroll in 2023 was a touch under $118.8MM.  Among the arbitration class, the likely non-tenders of Rowdy Tellez and Eric Lauer will free up some cash, but closer Devin Williams is also getting a significant raise in his second year of arb eligibility.

If Attanasio feels the team is still close to a championship, could he okay a one-year payroll boost and retain all of Burnes, Woodruff, and Adames for what would essentially be a “last dance” season?  In theory yes, though it seems like 2023 might’ve already been that last dance.  As much Milwaukee fans dislike the idea of prominent players being dealt for financial reasons, a canny trade would allow the Brew Crew to both save some money and acquire some talent to help the team in both 2024 and beyond.

Keeping all of Burnes, Woodruff, and Adames even until the next trade deadline would carry further risk, for one because the 2022 Josh Hader deal is an example of how such a trade can disrupt a clubhouse at midseason.  Furthermore, the players’ trade value could be lessened or erased completely in the event of injury or under-performance — a circumstance that has perhaps already happened with two of the three.

Woodruff pitched only 67 innings in 2023 due to a subscapular strain in his right shoulder, and more shoulder problems arose right as the postseason began, keeping Woodruff off the playoff roster.  Even if this current issue does prove to be relatively minor, rival teams might already be scared off at the idea of trading for an injured pitcher, and the Crew doesn’t want to sell low.

In the worst-case scenario of a major shoulder injury, Woodruff missing some or all of the 2024 season has greater impact than just on his trade status.  For one, the Brewers might be less inclined to move Burnes if they know they’ll also be losing their other ace to the injured list.  Woodruff’s health situation might erase the “need” for a trade, since otherwise, Burnes seems like the clear sell-high candidate of the trio after another All-Star season.

Even in an offseason with a pitching-heavy free agent market, clubs unwilling or unable to spend on a big long-term free agent deal will have plenty of interest in one year of Burnes’ services.  Conceivably, the Brewers could aim to land pitching as part of a Burnes trade to bolster the rotation in the event of a Woodruff injury.  As indicated by last offseason’s three-team swap between the Brewers, Athletics, and Braves, Arnold is willing to get creative in trades, so the team obtaining Burnes wouldn’t necessarily be the team also giving up an arm in return.

Rotation depth has traditionally been a strength for the Brewers, particularly in a 2023 season that saw several starters miss significant stretches.  But, beyond Burnes, Woodruff, and Lauer’s probable non-tender, Colin Rea and Julio Teheran (who combined for 33 starts) are free agents, and Wade Miley can also re-enter free agency by declining his end of a mutual option.  Without any of these arms, the Brewers’ top rotation options are now Freddy Peralta, Adrian Houser, Aaron Ashby returning after missing all of 2023 due to shoulder surgery, rookie Janson Junk and his nine career MLB games, and pitching prospect Robert Gasser on the verge of his Major League debut.

Re-signing Rea or Teheran might not be too expensive, and a reunion with Lauer is possible on a lower salary than his $5.2MM arbitration projection.  Miley could potentially also stay if the Brew Crew negotiated a new contract, but if not, expect Milwaukee to target another Miley-esque veteran hurler who can add some stability and innings on a short-term deal.

Given how starting pitching has been the backbone of the Brewers’ run of contending teams, this much flux heading into the offseason is certainly unsettling for the club, making Woodruff’s health a huge X-factor.  It does help that Milwaukee will be bringing back pretty much everyone from one of the game’s better relief corps, and it’s safe to expect a couple more bullpen arms to be cycled in and out as the Brewers look to find another hidden gem of a relief option.

The Brewers’ pitching and defense helped carry the team to the NL Central crown despite an offense that was inconsistent at best.  Considering that the Crew need lineup reinforcement and infield help in particular, they might be more compelled to hang onto Adames, despite his down year at the plate.  Adames hit 24 homers and still provided outstanding shortstop defense, but his 94 wRC+ (from a .217/.310/.407 slash line) was well below the 116 wRC+ he posted from 2020-22, as Adames’ hard-contact rates plunged this season.

Adames’ bat did come back to life over the last six weeks of the schedule, so it could be that the 28-year-old simply had an unusually prolonged slump.  If looking for possible causes, his usual spring routine was interrupted by the World Baseball Classic, and Adames only played in one game for the Dominican Republic.  It could be that with a full and normal Spring Training, Adames will look more like his normal self in 2024, which is good news for the Brewers…or a new team.

Brice Turang is a gifted enough fielder to at least replace Adames’ glovework at shortstop, but Turang didn’t show much at the plate in his rookie year.  Turang had a 60 wRC+, the second-lowest of all MLB players with at least 400 plate appearances last season.  While it’s too early to assume that Turang can’t become at least a passable hitter, he is already slated to be Milwaukee’s first choice at second base next season, so it just creates another hole on the diamond if Turang was moved to shortstop in the event of an Adames trade.  Andruw Monasterio and Owen Miller had their moments in 2023 and Abraham Toro could contribute if he isn’t non-tendered, but the Brewers might prefer having this group as utility depth rather getting steady playing time in a second base platoon.

Or, a third base platoon, since the hot corner was a revolving door for much of 2023.  Brian Anderson and Monasterio handled the bulk of the playing time, but Anderson has already been released, and the Brewers aren’t likely to bring back late-season pickup Josh Donaldson.  Prospect Tyler Black played a lot of third base at Triple-A Nashville last season and is expected to make his MLB debut in 2024, though it remains to be seen if third base will necessarily be his primary position, as he has been shuffled all around the diamond trying to find an ideal defensive spot.

First base was also a weak link before trade deadline acquisitions Mark Canha and Carlos Santana helped stabilize things, though Santana is a free agent and the Brew Crew have a $9.5MM decision to make on Canha’s club option.  It might not have been a decision Milwaukee necessarily expected to make when they landed Canha from the Mets, yet Canha played so well (.800 OPS in 204 PA) as a Brewer that exercising the option might easily solve one lineup concern.

Canha would probably primarily play first base, but his ability to also play both corner outfield slots provides extra depth, and perhaps gives the Crew some extra leverage in trading from their outfield depth.  Moving an outfielder for a third baseman in particular could be helpful, since the list of free agent third-base options isn’t deep, and the Brewers aren’t likely to be spending in the Matt Chapman/Jeimer Candelario tiers.

Turning to the outfield, Christian Yelich isn’t exactly back in his old MVP form, but his 122 wRC+ was his highest since 2019.  He’s still locked into the left field spot, though Yelich figures to get some DH days to open up playing time for former top prospects Garrett Mitchell (who missed most of the year due to shoulder surgery) and Sal Frelick, as well as Tyrone Taylor and rookies Blake Perkins and Joey Wiemer.  While Yelich is the only established player of this group, there could be enough of a surplus here for the Brewers to explore trades, especially since another highly-touted youngster is waiting in the wings.

Jackson Chourio doesn’t celebrate his 20th birthday until March, but he is already ranked as one of baseball’s very best prospects after tearing up the minors over his three pro seasons.  Chourio has only six games and 24 PA at the Triple-A level, so it is possible Milwaukee starts him back at Triple-A to begin the season to get the outfielder some more seasoning.  However, between Chourio’s intriguing potential and the Prospect Promotion Incentive opportunity open to the Brewers, a big Spring Training performance might put Chourio in center field for Milwaukee on Opening Day.

Since Chourio figures to make his MLB debut at some point in 2024, the Brewers might hold off on an outfield trade until they see how everything shakes out.  Frelick and Mitchell aren’t likely going anywhere, but Wiemer is a former top-100 prospect and Taylor has generally been a solid part-timer over his five MLB seasons.  Those latter two players might hold appeal to other teams, if perhaps as part of a package deal rather than in a notable one-for-one swap.

Turning to the final bench spot, free agent Victor Caratini had a solid season as William Contreras’ backup, and might look for more playing time with another team.  The Brewers would surely like to re-sign Caratini if possible, but they’ll be on the lookout for another veteran backstop if necessary.  The good news is that the Crew don’t necessarily have to limit themselves to glove-first types, as Conteras made such impressive strides with his blocking and framing that he now looks like an above-average catcher on both defense and offense.

Contreras is the latest example of how the Crew have been able to continually reload their roster.  The infamous Hader trade led to Gasser and Esteury Ruiz joining the Brewers, which led to Ruiz being sent to the A’s as part of that three-team deal that resulted in Contreras and ace setup man Joel Payamps coming to Milwaukee.  Naturally not every trade is going to work out quite as swimmingly, but it does provide hope that if Burnes, Adames, or Woodruff are indeed moved, Arnold will be able to again bring back a noteworthy return.

Arnold will have to weigh his big trade decisions against how to best upgrade the existing quality on the roster, all while not creating any roadblocks for the impending arrival of Chourio, Black, and Gasser.  Counsell’s future and Woodruff’s shoulder are the two biggest topics facing Milwaukee as the offseason begins, but the Brewers enter a potentially fascinating winter.

Click here to read the Brewers-centric live chat Mark Polishuk with MLBTR readers.

Ryan Goins Announces Retirement

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Eight-year MLB veteran Ryan Goins officially announced his retirement, via his X account.  “I was able to do some special things in my 14 years and developed relationships that will last a lifetime….So this is my official goodbye to playing the game, and my hello to the next chapter of my journey as a coach,” Goins wrote.  The infielder also paid tribute to his family, teammates, and several of his former teams, particularly the Blue Jays “for taking a chance on me and giving me my first shot.”

Goins was a fourth-round pick for Toronto in the 2009 draft, working his way up the minor league ladder and debuting in the Show in 2013.  His first five Major League seasons were spent with the Blue Jays, before then playing with the Royals in 2018 and then with the White Sox in 2019-20.  Goins also spent time in the Phillies, A’s, and Braves organizations without getting any big league calls, and he signed a minors deal with Kansas City last winter but didn’t actually take the field for any game action.

Known more for his glove than his bat, Goins hit .228/.278/.333 over 1690 career plate appearances in the majors, usually working as a utility infielder.  Goins was a very solid defender at both middle infield positions, and also played some third base and a handful of games at first base and the two corner outfield spots.

More than half (887) of Goins’ career PA came during the 2015 and 2017 seasons, as Goins found himself elevated into more or less everyday duty due to injuries to regular Jays starters.  Devon Travis’ recurring shoulder problems meant that Goins got the majority of time at second base for Toronto’s AL East-winning team in 2015, and Goins also found himself logging a lot of work at both second base and shortstop in 2017 when Troy Tulowitzki was on the injured list.

We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate Goins on a fine career, and we wish him all the best in his coaching work.

Brewers GM Matt Arnold On Burnes, Woodruff, Adames, Counsell, Prospects

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Brewers general manager Matt Arnold met with reporters (including MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy and The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Curt Hogg) for the season wrap-up press conference today, and addressing several major topics facing his team as the offseason begins.  One question left open was the status of Brandon Woodruff’s right shoulder, as Arnold said more will be known once Woodruff has another visit with doctors.

“He’s going to be looked at this week.  We’re optimistic,” Arnold said.  “We won’t know until the reports come out, but we’re going to wait until he gets another opinion on his shoulder at this point.”

Woodruff suffered a capsular injury to his throwing shoulder just prior to the start of the Brewers’ Wild Card Series with the Diamondbacks, and it was unclear if Woodruff would’ve been able to pitch during any part of a postseason run even if the Brew Crew had made it as far as the World Series.  Losing one of their top pitchers to injury proved to be a harbinger of bad news for Milwaukee, as the D’Backs swept the NL Central champions in two games.

Between this latest injury and the shoulder problems that caused Woodruff to miss four months of regular season action, it seems possible that surgery might be on the table as an option, which could threaten Woodruff’s availability for 2024.  It also adds another layer of intrigue to the longstanding expectation that at least one of Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, or Willy Adames could be traded.

The three players are entering their final year of arbitration eligibility and will be free agents next winter.  Given Milwaukee’s modest payroll, extending even one of the players might not be feasible, and keeping all three beyond 2024 seems out of the question barring a major change in the Brewers’ spending approach.

Arnold acknowledged this financial situation Tuesday, noting “We can never close the door on any [trade] conversations, as you guys know.  That’s just the reality of where we are.”  However, the GM unsurprisingly also didn’t tip his hand in forecasting any moves, saying “the short answer is that we’re extremely comfortable having” Woodruff, Burnes, and Adames on the roster.

“The foundation is that they’re here and they’re really good players,” Arnold said.  “Obviously, anything can happen over the course of an offseason.  We’ll certainly have to entertain a lot of different discussions but we recognize the value of these players and how much they mean to our franchise.”

Burnes in particular has seemed like the top trade candidate of the group ever since his disappointed reaction to his arbitration hearing back in February,  though Arnold stressed that Burnes “means a ton to what we’ve done here.  He’s been a warrior on the mound….We’ll see how it plays out over the course of the offseason, but I would expect him to be here next year.”

In terms of other winter priorities, the Brewers are hoping to boost offense, particularly at first and third base.  Acquiring Carlos Santana and Mark Canha at the trade deadline helped solidify the first base spot down the stretch, though Santana is a free agent and Canha will hit the market as well if the Crew don’t exercise their $11.5MM club option on his services.  Arnold’s comments might imply that Canha and Santana could be let go if the Brewers want more pop out of the first base position, though Canha isn’t only a first baseman, as he can also play in either corner outfield spot.

Andruw Monasterio seems like a candidate to be a third-base regular since Arnold said the team “liked” his work at the hot corner, though the GM also cited top prospect Tyler Black as a candidate at either infield position, “potentially early on” in the season.  If Milwaukee is prepared to give Black a look out of Spring Training, that could mean the team might not pursue an everyday type of veteran corner infielder, in order to not block Black or Monasterio.

There weren’t any new updates on Craig Counsell’s status, as Arnold said management had yet to sit down with the skipper to discuss a new contract.  Counsell’s deal is officially up at the end of October, and he previously told owner Mark Attanasio that he wanted to wait until the season was over to explore an extension.  Given the October 31st expiry date on his current contract, the Brewers will have a few weeks of exclusive negotiating time to explore possibilities with Counsell, before becomes a free agent and open to pursuits from other teams — such as the Mets, who now have David Stearns as president of baseball operations and a managerial vacancy after firing Buck Showalter.

Quick Hits: Lovullo, Votto, Carter, Lopez

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Torey Lovullo received a one-year contract extension back in June, and it looks like a longer-term deal might soon be in the works for the Diamondbacks manager.  GM Mike Hazen told MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert that when Lovullo’s extension was being negotiated over the summer, he told the skipper “we got to get through the rest of the season.  And I said if good things happen and we get to the playoffs and we get where we need to go, that he and I will have another conversation.”

Needless to say, plenty of “good things” have indeed taken place.  The D’Backs reached the playoffs, upset the NL Central-winning Brewers, and are two wins away from upsetting the Dodgers and reaching the NLCS for the third time in franchise history.  Lovullo and Hazen both joined the organization prior to the 2017 season, and with Hazen’s new deal keeping him in Arizona through at least the 2028 campaign, it makes sense that Lovullo would also be getting some extra security.  With the D’Backs going through some struggles prior to 2023, Lovullo had been kept on something of a short leash, as his previous two contracts had been a one-year deal with a club option (that was exercised), and then the one-year extension from June that has him locked up through the 2024 season.

More from around the baseball world….

  • Now that Joey Votto has said he wants to return next season, the question is whether or not the Reds will exercise their $20MM club option on Votto’s services, or buy out the option for $7MM.  In the view of Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer, “the financial side of the decision on his option should be a no-brainer” given how Votto is worth more than $13MM as “a meaningful draw and revenue-enhancing player brand.”  Votto has become synonymous with Reds baseball on an international level, as Wittenmyer points out that Nike listed Votto 13th on their list of highest-selling jerseys.  With more revenue pouring into the Reds in terms of attendance and TV ratings, Wittenmyer feels it would be a misfire to let a franchise icon walk away, or even to give other teams a chance to negotiate in free agency.
  • Evan Carter’s immediate impact helped the Rangers reach the playoffs, and then advance past the Rays and take a 2-0 lead on the Orioles in the ALDS.  It has been quite the start for a player who just made his MLB debut a month ago today, and who was universally seen as a bizarrely huge reach when Texas selected him in the second round of the five-round 2020 draft.  Yahoo Sports’ Hannah Keyser explores how the Rangers found Carter as a high schooler in Tennessee, with that interest sparked because ex-pitching coordinator Danny Clark happened to be a childhood acquaintance of Carter’s father.  “We just kind of identified him a little bit earlier in the process and really liked him,” scout Derrick Tucker said, and few other teams even got a chance to see Carter play because the pandemic canceled his senior-year baseball season.  Though Carter hadn’t cracked even top-200 (from MLB Pipeline) or top-500 (from Baseball America) rankings, and despite the little margin for error in the shortened draft, the Rangers still make the pick and seem to have found a hidden gem.
  • The Guardians haven’t traditionally spent much on bullpen acquisitions, but Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer feels the team will “do more than kick the tires when it comes to trying to” re-sign Reynaldo Lopez.  Picked up off waivers by the Guards as part of their last-minute playoff push in late August, Lopez couldn’t have pitched any better during his brief time in Cleveland, with a perfect 0.00 ERA over 11 innings of relief work.  With a 3.14 ERA over 189 innings in 2021-23, Lopez has quietly become a very solid reliever since his full-time move to bullpen, and it figures to land him one of the more lucrative contracts of any free agent reliever this winter.  This might represent something of a splurge for the cost-conscious Guardians, but obviously they liked what they saw in the righty’s work.

Athletics Outright Four Players To Triple-A

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TODAY: Neal and Rios each elected free agency rather than accept the outright assignment, as per MILB.com’s official transactions page.

OCTOBER 4: The A’s cleared some space off their 40-man roster, announcing today that right-handers Austin Pruitt, Zach Neal, and Yacksel Rios, and left-hander Richard Lovelady were all outrighted to Triple-A after clearing waivers.  There hadn’t been any public knowledge that the quartet had been designated for assignment, yet all four passed through the waiver wire and (for now) will remain in Oakland’s organization.

Pruitt, Neal, Rios have each have the option of electing free agency rather than accepting the assignment to Triple-A, since they’ve previously been outrighted during their careers.  Pruitt and Rios are both eligible for salary arbitration this winter and will probably be non-tendered, so they’re likely to just hit the open market now rather than wait for an official release.

Neal signed a minor league contract with the A’s in April, and posted a 6.67 ERA over 27 innings at the big league level.  This marked Neal’s first MLB action since he pitched with the Dodgers in 2018, as Neal had in the interim pitched three seasons in Japan and then with the Rockies’ Triple-A club in 2022 without receiving a call up to Colorado’s active roster.

Pruitt, Rios, and Lovelady all finished the season on the injured list.  Pruitt had seen the most action (48 1/3 innings in 38 appearances) before a right forearm strain ultimately ended his season on August 17.  It doesn’t appear as though Pruitt’s injury is a long-term issue, as he had started a throwing program and had advanced to throwing live batting practices in September.

That’s some good news for a pitcher who has already had one major injury setback in his career, as Pruitt missed all of the 2020 season and half of the 2021 season recovering from a hairline fracture in his right elbow.  Pruitt posted a 4.83 ERA over 207 MLB innings with the Rays, Astros, and Marlins from 2017-21 before catching on with the A’s on minor league deals in each of the last two seasons.  Pruitt had a 4.23 ERA in 55 1/3 frames for Oakland in 2022 and then a 2.98 ERA this past season, giving him some solid bottom-line results even if his advanced metrics (4.32 SIERA in 2022-23) indicated that he benefited from some good fortune.

The Athletics acquired Rios in a June trade with the Braves, and after the righty’s contract was selected from Triple-A, he made only three appearances before heading to the 15-day (and then shortly thereafter the 60-day) injured list.  Rios has Raynaud’s Syndrome, and was feeling numbness in two fingers caused by a reduction in blood flow to his hands.  A surgery in July removed an axillary branch aneurysm from Rios’ shoulder, which should help him ultimately heal up even if it meant the end of his 2023 season.

Rios is a veteran of six Major League seasons, with a 6.32 ERA over 98 1/3 career innings with five different teams.  He didn’t pitch in the majors in 2022 while playing in the White Sox organization, and inked a minors deal with Atlanta last winter.

Lovelady also came to the A’s from the Braves, as Oakland selected him off waivers in April.  Lovelady had a 4.63 ERA in 23 1/3 relief innings for the Athletics before being shut down after suffering a pronator strain in his throwing forearm in July.  This new injury comes in the wake of a 2021 Tommy John surgery that caused Lovelady to miss the entire 2022 season while rehabbing.  The southpaw had a 5.62 ERA in 41 2/3 innings over parts of the 2019-21 seasons with the Royals, and Kansas City traded him to the Braves a couple of weeks before Oakland’s waiver claim.

Rays Notes: Glasnow, Margot, Ohtani, Caminero

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Every Rays offseason inevitably leads to trade rumors about their higher-salaried players, whether it’s players getting increasingly expensive through their arbitration years or players entering more expensive years of their current contracts.  The same should be true this winter, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes that Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot “seem likely to be in trade discussions” as the Rays try both manage their budget and maintain a competitive roster.

It isn’t a shock to see either player potentially shopped, especially since Tampa reportedly offered Margot to other teams as recently as the trade deadline.  Margot also drew some trade buzz during the 2021-22 offseason since 2022 was his final year of salary arbitration, but the Rays not only avoided an arb hearing by agreeing to a salary with Margot for 2022, but they also inked him to a two-year, $19MM extension with a $12MM club option for 2025.

Glasnow’s own extension with the Rays only seemed to create more trade speculation, rather than security about his future in St. Petersburg.  The right-hander signed his two-year, $30.35MM extension in August 2022, just over a year after the right-hander underwent a Tommy John surgery that cost him almost the entire 2022 season.  The deal broke down as a $5.35MM salary in 2023 (essentially what Glasnow would’ve earned anyway via arbitration salary) and then a whopping $25MM for 2024.

Essentially since the moment that deal was announced, many have expected that the Rays would look to trade Glasnow before that $25MM bill came due.  That dollar figure might not scare off many teams as a one-year splurge, given how Glasnow returned to mostly good health and delivered a strong season.  An oblique strain cost Glasnow the first two months of the 2023 campaign, but he posted a 3.53 ERA, 51.2% grounder rate, and an elite 33.4% strikeout rate over 120 innings.

Of course, the Rays themselves might view $25MM as a good investment for a top-of-the-rotation arm, especially given the other injury problems in Tampa Bay’s rotation.  Glasnow and Zach Eflin project as the Rays’ top two pitchers, with Taj Bradley penciled into the rotation for at least the start of the season, Shane Baz returning from Tommy John surgery, Drew Rasmussen (elbow brace surgery) and Jeffrey Springs (TJ surgery) both expected back at midseason, and Shane McClanahan very likely missing the year altogether due to yet another TJ procedure.  Given how all these injuries hampered the Rays this year, Tampa might feel comfortable in just keeping Glasnow and then getting draft compensation back next winter via the qualifying offer, or perhaps even a midseason trade if the Rays are out of the race.

If Glasnow is retained and the Rays looked to trim payroll elsewhere, moving Margot seems like a natural place to start, as he is owed $12MM in 2024 ($10MM salary, $2MM buyout of his 2025 option).  Margot generally been a slightly below-average hitter during his eight MLB seasons, with his .264/.310/.376 slash line over 336 plate appearances in 2023 basically matching his career numbers.  Margot’s speed and defense have helped his value beyond the middling offense, though the public metrics indicated a dropoff in his center field glovework in 2023, even if his right field numbers were still solid.  Margot’s playing time has also been limited by some injuries over the last two years, as well as the Rays’ natural penchant for outfield platoons.

Perhaps especially if Tampa Bay feels Margot has lost a step or two defensively, he might be an expendable piece of a crowded Rays outfield.  Josh Lowe and Jose Siri could take over the center field platoon, and prospects like Kameron Misner or Chandler Simpson might also be nearing their big league debuts.  Margot’s trade market might be somewhat limited by his 2023 performance, though with a thin free agent market for position players, any outfield help might get some extra interest this particular winter.

Turning from possible Rays trades to some moves that didn’t happen, Tampa Bay was known to have interest in Shohei Ohtani this past summer, even though it seemed like the Angels had little to no interest in actually dealing the two-way star.  That didn’t stop several teams from floating offers, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that Tampa offered Junior Caminero and two other top-10 prospects in exchange for the final two months of Ohtani’s 2023 season.

It would’ve been a big price for a rental player, yet not out of line for a player of Ohtani’s stature and unique all-around ability.  Of course, no trade happened, and the Rays probably don’t have many regrets considering how Ohtani’s partial UCL tear prematurely ended his pitching season in August, and an oblique strain then ended his season altogether a couple of weeks later.

Cardinals Interested In Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray

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Adding as many as three starting pitchers is a stated offseason goal for Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, and it isn’t surprising that the club is already plotting out some notable free agent pursuits.  While the Cards will cast a wide berth across the free agent pitching market, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray are two pitchers in particular “the Cardinals have identified as good fits and plan to approach to see if the feeling is mutual.”

In something of a pitching-heavy free agent class, Nola (30 years old) and Gray (34 next month) are two of the top names available.  Both will be entering free agency for the first time due to contract extensions signed earlier in this careers, and since both pitchers will undoubtedly receive and reject qualifying offers, the Cardinals would have to give up $500K in international bonus money and their second-highest pick in the 2024 draft as compensation for a signing.

St. Louis has traditionally been somewhat modest in its dips into the open market, as Matt Holliday’s seven-year, $120MM deal from the 2009-10 offseason remains the biggest contract the Cardinals have ever given to a free agent player.  In terms of pitching contracts, the Cards gave Mike Leake five years/$80MM during the 2015-16 offseason but that deal didn’t work out, to the point that St. Louis traded Leake before the contract was even two years old.  More recently, the Cardinals signed Steven Matz for four years and $44MM two winters ago, though Matz’s performance has been inconsistent and he has battled some injury problems.

With rotation help such a glaring need, however, the Cardinals might have no choice but to test free agency for the pitchers they need, particularly front-of-the-rotation types.  Both Gray and Nola had pretty comparable overall numbers and Nola actually had the better SIERA (3.75 to 3.95) of the two pitchers, though Gray ended up with a 2.79 ERA to Nola’s 4.46 ERA — perhaps underlining the difference between the Twins’ defense and the Phillies’ much weaker defense.

Goold noted that the Cardinals are among the many teams who have scouted Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and that the team could explore a reunion with Jordan Montgomery after St. Louis dealt Montgomery to the Rangers at the trade deadline.  Looking at the market as a whole, if the Cards are indeed leaning towards Gray and Nola as their top choices, that gives some hint as to the Cardinals’ spending range.

Gray and Nola will each command healthy contracts, yet not in the stratosphere of a Shohei Ohtani (who won’t even pitch in 2024 anyway due to Tommy John surgery) or perhaps even Yamamoto, whose contract might approach $200MM because he is only 25 years old.  Montgomery and Blake Snell are two more of the top starters available, though it is perhaps noteworthy that both are represented by the Boras Corporation, whereas Gray is repped by Bo McKinnis and Nola by Paragon.  While the Cardinals have rostered and acquired several Scott Boras clients over the years, Boras’ penchant for encouraging clients to wait until deeper into the offseason to sign might not be ideal for a St. Louis team that would probably prefer to get its top-end pitching acquisitions out of the way sooner rather than later.

Kyle Wright To Undergo Shoulder Surgery, Will Miss 2024 Season

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Kyle Wright has battled shoulder problems all season, resulting in the Braves placing the righty on the 60-day injured list just prior to the start of their playoff run.  Wright will miss all of the postseason, and unfortunately now all of the 2024 season as well, since manager Brian Snitker told reporters (including The Athletic’s David O’Brien) that Wright will undergo surgery to correct the problem.

Wright’s shoulder injuries started in Spring Training and resulted in a season-opening stint on the 15-day IL.  He made five starts before being forced back to the IL for ended up being more than a four-month layoff.  Returning to the Braves’ rotation in September, Wright pitched in four games — two as a starter, then two more as a reliever.  With the playoffs looming, Wright was being positioned for a role in Atlanta’s bullpen during the postseason, which he was happy to do in order to help the team win.  However, an MRI on Friday revealed more shoulder damage, and surgery now looks like a necessity to correct the problem once and for all.

The injury will essentially cost Wright two years of his career, as he’ll wrap his 2023 campaign with only 31 innings pitched.  It’s a brutal outcome for the 28-year-old, especially after it looked like he had finally established himself as a viable big league starter in 2022.

The fifth overall pick of the 2017 draft, Wright took a quick route to the big leagues and made his MLB debut in September 2018.  Through the 2018-21 seasons, Wright only pitched 70 Major League innings over 21 appearances (14 of them starts), posting a 6.56 ERA and simply not pitching well enough to stick in the rotation or even on the active roster.  The silver lining was a championship ring in 2021, as though he made only two appearances in the regular season, he landed a spot on the World Series roster and delivered a 1.59 ERA in 5 2/3 innings of relief work.

This set the stage for Wright’s breakout.  He posted a 3.19 ERA over 180 1/3 innings in 2022, leading the majors in wins with a 21-5 record.  Though he allowed a lot of hard contact and his walk and strikeout rates were only slightly above the league average, Wright’s 3.48 SIERA wasn’t much higher than his real-world ERA, and his 55.6% grounder rate only got a bit of batted-ball luck in the form of a .284 BABIP.

Wright’s 2023 numbers were basically a wash, as he had a 6.97 ERA over his 31 frames.  With this recent performance weighing more heavily than his 2022 season, Wright was projected to earn $1.4MM in 2024, his first year of arbitration eligibility.  Missing the 2024 season entirely would mean that Wright’s 2025 salary will either match or be fractionally beyond that $1.4MM figure, so even if he returns healthy and productive in 2025, he’d get a bump up to maybe something in the $4MM range for 2026.

In short, the shoulder injury has cost Wright millions of dollars, as he would’ve locked in some increasingly large salaries through his arb years if he’d kept pitching anything like his 2022 self.  Given the Braves’ penchant for extending their in-house players, a solid 2023 season might’ve been enough evidence to convince the front office to lock in a multi-year agreement with Wright, giving him an even bigger payday.

The one possible upside to these limited salaries is that Wright is still making so relatively little that the Braves will still tender him a contract, allowing Wright to rehab and then hopefully bounce back in good form by Opening Day 2025.  But obviously, losing Wright for a year has an impact on the Braves’ long-term pitching plans as well.

Spencer Strider is locked up on an extension through at least the 2028 season, making him the cornerstone of Atlanta’s rotation for the rest of the decade.  Beyond Strider, Max Fried is a free agent after the 2024 season, and 39-year-old Charlie Morton could potentially retire after this season.  Bryce Elder pitched generally well this year, though his numbers regressed significantly after a great first three months.  Rookies Jared Shuster, Dylan Dodd, Allan Winans, and AJ Smith-Shawver all made their big league debuts in 2023, but Smith-Shawver is the only one of the group who pitched decently well.  Michael Soroka didn’t pitch particularly well over 32 1/3 innings in his comeback season and was shut down in September due to forearm inflammation.  As for other injured starters, Kolby Allard only threw 12 1/3 innings due to oblique and shoulder nerve inflammation,and Huascar Ynoa missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery.

It’s a lot of depth but not necessarily a lot of proven quality, though getting by with a so-so-rotation might be okay for a Braves team with such a spectacular offense.  Going into 2024, Strider, Fried, and Elder seemingly have rotation spots locked, and if Morton returns, that’s still a solid top four.  Top prospect Hurston Waldrep might also be on the roster as early as Opening Day, so it’s possible Wright might’ve had a hard time getting back into the rotation (or even beating out the many other arms for the unofficial sixth starter job) even if he’d avoided surgery.  Many things could still shake out by the time Wright is ready in 2025, particularly if Fried did leave and if Morton did decide to finally hang up his glove.

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