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Phillies Exercise $16MM Club Option On Aaron Nola For 2023

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The Phillies picked up their $16MM club option on Aaron Nola for the 2023 season, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).  The option contained a $4.25MM buyout, but there was no chance the Phils weren’t going to retain the star right-hander for another season.

Drafted seventh overall in the 2014 draft, Nola made his MLB debut the very next season, and has gone on to become the gem of Philadelphia’s oft-maligned player development system.  Since the start of the 2018 season, no pitcher has thrown more innings than Nola’s 871 2/3 frames, and he has paired that durability with a 3.47 ERA.  (Even that number is a bit misleading, as Nola had a 3.26 SIERA in 2021 but only a 4.63 ERA due to some sheer bad luck.)  That five-stretch also saw Nola finish third in NL Cy Young Award voting in 2018, and he collected a seventh-place finish in 2020.

It seems likely that Nola will again appear on some Cy Young ballots this year, after his 3.25 ERA over 205 innings, a league-best 8.1 K/BB rate and 1.3 BB/9, as well as excellent strikeout, hard-hit ball, and chase rates.  Nola reached for the postseason for the first time in his career, starting five games during the Phillies’ run to their first World Series appearance since 2009.

Back in February 2019, Nola signed a four-year extension worth at least $45MM in guaranteed money.  With the option exercised, that deal is now a five-year, $56.75MM pact that has already been worth every penny for the Phillies.  The right-hander doesn’t even turn 30 until June, and the question now becomes whether or not the Phillies can sign Nola to another extension.  Locking Nola up to another long-term deal would be a good way of ensuring some more rotation stability, as Zack Wheeler’s contract is up after 2024 and Ranger Suarez is arbitration-controlled through 2025.  Top prospect arms like Andrew Painter and Mick Abel could debut in the majors as early as 2023, but just given the timing of the expiring contracts, Painter and Abel could be viewed more as possible in-house replacement for Wheeler rather than Nola.

Jurickson Profar, Robert Suarez Opt Out Of Contracts; Padres Decline Wil Myers’ Club Option

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Outfielder Jurickson Profar and right-hander Robert Suarez exercised the opt-out clauses in their contracts with the Padres, according to the MLB Players Association (Twitter link).  The two players have now officially become free agents.  Both players will take a $1MM buyout, with Profar opting for free agency over a $7.5MM salary for 2023, and Suarez leaving a $5MM salary for 2023 on the table.  In addition, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports (via Twitter) that the Padres have declined their $20MM club option on Wil Myers’ services for the 2023 season, and Myers will also get a $1MM buyout.

After a solid performance in his first season in San Diego, Profar inked a three-year, $21MM deal (with a $10MM mutual option for 2024) to return to the Padres during the 2020-21 offseason.  Given Profar’s lack of a consistent track record during his MLB career, the size of the contract was a surprise at the time, and any concerns immediately seemed justified when Profar struggled in 2021.  However, Profar was a 2.5 fWAR player in 2022, hitting .243/.331/.391 with 15 homers and a 110 wRC+ while playing some respectable defense as the Padres’ everyday left fielder.

Profar’s three-year deal contained opt-outs after both 2021 and 2022, and Profar naturally didn’t exercise his opt-out after the 2021 season’s disappointment.  In hitting the open market now, Profar’s three-year deal will end up earning him $13.5MM in total salary, signing bonuses, and his buyout.

Once regarded as the top prospect in baseball, Profar is entering his age-30 season and is now looking more like a solid regular, rather than the superstar status initially predicted for him almost a decade ago.  It’ll be interesting to see what his next contract looks like, though his opt-out is a logical move since he’ll surely top the $7.5MM figure.  Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has long had an affinity for Profar dating back those top-prospect days (when Preller worked in the Rangers’ front office), and another new deal with San Diego certainly doesn’t seem out the question.

On the flip side, last summer’s Juan Soto trade dramatically overhauled the Padres’ outfield picture, and Preller might choose to continue the remodel with Profar and Myers both hitting the open market.  There wasn’t any doubt Myers’ option would be declined, as the Padres have been trying to trade Myers for the last few years in order to get his contract off the books and ease up their luxury tax burden.  Since a trade partner couldn’t be found for Myers and the Padres had to eat virtually all of Eric Hosmer’s remaining salary in dealing him to the Red Sox at the trade deadline, San Diego ended up surpassing the tax threshold for the second consecutive season.

Myers inked a six-year, $83MM extension with the Friars in January 2017, and though San Diego obviously expected more from its investment, Myers still provided above-average (109 wRC+) over the life of the contract.  He hit .252/.327/.451 with 98 home runs over 2486 PA during the last six seasons, with injuries limiting his playing time in both 2018 and 2022.  In what might be Myers’ final season with the Padres, he missed close to two months recovering from knee inflammation, and played in only 77 games — Myers still had a respectable 104 wRC+ from a .261/.315/.398 slash line.

After spending his first six professional seasons in the Mexican League and in Nippon Professional Baseball, Suarez came to MLB in 2022, signing an $11MM deal that broke down as a $1MM signing bonus, $5MM in 2022, and a $5MM player option for 2023.  Though knee inflammation sent Suarez to the 60-day injured list, his rookie season was still quite a success, with a 2.27 ERA and a 31.9% strikeout rate over his first 47 2/3 innings in the majors.  He carried that success forward with a 3.00 ERA in nine innings during San Diego’s postseason run, though Suarez ended on the sour note of allowing Bryce Harper’s decisive two-run homer as the Padres were eliminated by the Phillies in Game 5 of the NLCS.

Suarez (who turns 32 in March) stands to build on that rookie year with a multi-year contract in his return to free agency.  He is another player the Padres will surely have interest in re-signing, but Suarez will draw plenty of suitors due to the vast number of teams eager to add velocity and strikeouts to their bullpens.

Rays Promote Rodney Linares To Bench Coach

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The Rays have named third base coach Rodney Linares as the team’s new bench coach, according to Jon Morosi of the MLB Network (Twitter link).  Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times recently reported that Linares was expected to take over bench coach duties from Matt Quatraro, who was hired as the Royals’ new manager.

The 45-year-old Linares has been the Rays’ third base coach for the last four seasons, coming to Tampa after a long stint in the Astros organization that saw his coaching career begin at age 21.  Starting off as a coach and instructor at that young age, Linares got his first managerial assignment in 2007, and worked his way up the minor league ladder to manage all of Houston’s rookie ball, A-ball, high-A, Double-A, and Triple-A affiliates from 2007-18.

Linares will also have a high-profile managerial role during the World Baseball Classic in March, as he’ll man the dugout for the Dominican Republic’s national team.  As Morosi notes, Linares is viewed by many as a candidate to eventually manage a Major League club, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him receive interviews during the next round of managerial openings.  Quatraro and Charlie Montoyo both moved from the Tampa bench coach job to become a manager elsewhere, as rival teams frequently target the Rays for managerial, coaching staff, and front office hires.

Xander Bogaerts Opt Out Of Red Sox Contract

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As expected, Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts has officially opted out of his contract, as the MLB Players Association announced (via Twitter) that Bogaerts was among the latest players to join the free agent market.  Bogaerts will leave the final three years and $60MM of his deal with Boston to look for a larger contract on the open market.

There was never much suspense over Bogaerts’ decision, as an opt-out always seemed pretty likely even from the moment the shortstop signed the six-year, $120MM extension back in April 2019.  Bogaerts just turned 30 years old last month, and he’ll surely command far beyond three years and $60MM in his first taste of the free agent market.

Perhaps the only question surrounding the opt-out was whether or not the Red Sox would make it a moot point, by agreeing to another extension with Bogaerts.  However, extension talks back in the spring reportedly saw Boston make a surprisingly small offer of only an extra season and another $30MM added to Bogaerts’ current contract.  As of a month ago, Bogaerts said the two sides hadn’t had any other further negotiations, though it’s probably safe to assume that some talks did take place, given how chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom stressed that Bogaerts was Boston’s top priority heading into the offseason.

The Red Sox still retain exclusive negotiating rights with Bogaerts until free agency officially opens on Thursday.  While the two sides have shared mutual interest in Bogaerts’ continued future in Boston, it would be awfully surprising to see the two sides agree to a new deal so close to the opening of the market.  Once other teams can speak to Bogaerts, it remains to be seen whether the Sox will outbid other suitors, or if they’ll perhaps explore other shortstop options after 10 seasons with Bogaerts at Fenway Park.

Zach Davies Declines Mutual Option With Diamondbacks

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Diamondbacks right-hander Zach Davies declined his end of a mutual option for the 2023 season, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The right-hander receives a $250K buyout, and (as per the MLB Players Association) has officially become a free agent.

Davies inked a one-year guarantee with the D’Backs in March, and posted a 4.09 ERA over 134 1/3 frames in 2022.  It ended up being quite a solid return for Arizona on its $1.75MM investment ($1.5MM salary, plus the buyout) on the 29-year-old, and since Davies had some extra bonus money tied to his number of starts, his 27 trips to the mound likely earned him some additional dollars.

The value of the mutual option wasn’t known, though mutual options are almost never exercised by both parties.  Davies had strikeout (17.9%) and walk (9.1%) rates that were well below the league average, as well as his typically low fastball velocity and chase rates, though he did do a good job of avoiding hard contact.  A .257 BABIP undoubtedly helped Davies, as his 4.71 SIERA is perhaps a more accurate reflection of his 2022 performance.

It’s possible the Diamondbacks might pursue a reunion with Davies, but with these stats in mind, the D’Backs might choose to pursue another fairly inexpensive veteran arm rather than look to re-sign Davies himself.  Arizona has Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and Madison Bumgarner atop their projected rotation, with such younger hurlers as Drey Jameson, Tommy Henry, and Ryne Nelson set to compete for the final two spots in the starting five.  The D’Backs could prefer to let those youngsters compete for just a lone rotation job, and acquire a veteran to fill the fourth starter’s role.  Theoretically, that fourth starter could perhaps be flipped at the deadline, thus opening up more time for another prospect to get more innings.

Davies might well have been traded himself last summer, had it not been for a shoulder injury that sidelined him for all of July.  The right-hander will now hit the market once again, and could be joining his fifth different team in as many seasons.  Davies was a part of prominent trades in both the 2019-20 and 2020-21 offseasons, moving from the Brewers to the Padres and then to the Cubs before signing with the D’Backs last winter.

Note: The original version of this post indicated the Diamondbacks had declined their end of the mutual option. It was subsequently reported that Davies declined his end of the option. MLBTR regrets the error.

Jacob deGrom, Taijuan Walker Opt Out Of Mets Contracts

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Jacob deGrom and Taijuan Walker are both headed to the free agent market, according to a media release from the MLB Players Association (via Twitter).  As expected, deGrom opted out of the final guaranteed year of his contract, while Walker took a $3MM buyout rather than exercise a $7.5MM player option for the 2023 season.

deGrom was owed $30.5MM in 2023, and the Mets held a $32.5MM club option on the former two-time Cy Young Award winner for 2024.  There is no doubt deGrom will find more than $30.5MM on the open market, as his skill level still supersedes some obvious questions about his health and long-term durability.  Multiple injuries kept deGrom on the shelf for over an entire year, as he didn’t make a single MLB appearance between July 7, 2021 and August 2, 2022.  Upon returning this season, deGrom still looked tremendous, posting a 3.08 ERA and a host of elite Statcast numbers.

Throughout his injury hiatus, deGrom consistently maintained that he still planned to opt out of his contract, and his strong performance over his 64 1/3 innings should quell doubts in the minds of some suitors.  Of course, deGrom also turns 35 in June 2023, so there has been speculation that teams might prefer to offer him deals with a high average annual value rather than a lengthy term.  Reports have also suggested that geography is a factor for deGrom, as his preference would be to play for a team closer to his home in Florida.

During the 2020-21 offseason, Walker joined the Mets on a two-year deal worth $20MM in guaranteed salary.  Given the high price of his buyout, Walker’s $4.5MM decision wasn’t a hard one to make, as the right-hander will look to capitalize on what has now been three consecutive seasons of solid work.  The 30-year-old isn’t a big strikeout pitcher and he allows a lot of hard contact, though he’ll get plenty of attention as a solid arm for the middle-to-back of many rotations.

Walker missed almost all of the 2018 and 2019 seasons due to Tommy John surgery and a shoulder injury, before rebounding with a 2.70 ERA over 53 1/3 innings with the Mariners and Blue Jays during the shortened 2020 season.  That performance led to Walker’s contract with New York, and he has stayed mostly healthy (averaging 158 IP) over his two seasons with the Mets while posting a 3.98 ERA.  2022 was the better of Walker’s two seasons, as he had a 3.49 ERA and an above-average 6.9% walk rate.

Between deGrom, Walker, Chris Bassitt expected to decline his end of a mutual option, and the Mets holding a $14MM club option on Carlos Carrasco for 2023, New York’s rotation could look quite different by Opening Day.  Even with the Mets’ willingness to spend big, retaining all of these starters might even be beyond ownership’s comfort zone, especially with other free agent questions left to be answered.  The Mets already made one big strike to re-sign an in-house free agent, agreeing to a five-year, $102MM deal with closer Edwin Diaz yesterday.

Orix Buffaloes May Post Masataka Yoshida For MLB Teams

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The Orix Buffaloes just won the Japan Series, becoming the champions of Nippon Professional Baseball’s 2022 season.  Now, the Buffaloes may immediately face a major roster decision, as GM Junichi Fukura told The Japan Times last week that the team will speak with outfielder Masataka Yoshida about a possible posting for MLB teams.  Yoshida is seeking a move to North America, telling reporters “I’ve always wanted to play at a high level.”

Over his seven seasons with the Buffaloes, Yoshida has become one of NPB’s top hitters, with a .327/.421/.539 slash line and 133 home runs in 3129 career plate appearances.  His resume includes four NPB All-Star appearances, league batting titles in both 2020 and 2021, and four selections to the “Best Nine” roster for the Pacific League (like the AL and NL in the majors, NPB has the Pacific League and Central League).  Yoshida was also the hero in Game 5 of the Japan Series, with a two-homer performance that included a three-run walkoff blast to give the Buffaloes a comeback win.

Yoshida turns 30 next July, so it would seem like he still has some more prime years to contribute as he makes the potential move to Major League Baseball.  He would make an intriguing addition to this year’s free agent market, particularly for teams in need of left-handed hitting.

Because Yoshida hasn’t played enough to earn full free agency, the Buffaloes would have to agree to post the outfielder, and the NPB club would then receive a posting fee based on whatever Yoshida would earn in a Major League contract.  Once posted, Yoshida and his representatives would have 30 days to negotiate with MLB teams, and he would return to the Buffaloes if no deal was reached with a North American club within that 30-day window.  Yoshida would be eligible to be posted again next offseason, and following the 2024 season, he’d have enough service time to enter free agency without the limits of the posting system.

The 2022-23 Offseason Begins

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The Astros are World Series champions, officially bringing the 2022 baseball season to a close.  As the party continues in Houston, the rest of the baseball world has already gotten started on winter business, as (knock on wood) the league prepares for its first “regular” offseason in three years.  The 2019-20 offseason was interrupted by the pandemic, with that uncertainty continuing to cloud MLB’s preparations heading into 2021.  Last winter, the offseason was shut down by a 99-day lockout, until the league and the players’ union finally agreed on a new collective bargaining agreement.

Fortunately, it looks like we might be in store for nothing but hot stove talk during this offseason, in a welcome return to normalcy.  We at MLB Trade Rumors are already in the swing of things, with Matt Swartz’s annual arbitration projections posted and our annual Offseason Outlook series well underway.  In addition, the annual Top 50 Free Agents list and Free Agent Prediction contest are both coming soon, so stay tuned.

Here is the rundown of the offseason’s key dates on the baseball calendar…

NOVEMBER 6: All eligible players can officially file for free agency, though even though this technically marks the start of free agency, players still aren’t allowed to negotiate with anyone but their current team.  During the five days until the full opening of the free agent market, teams and players must make their contractual decisions about any club options, player options, opt-outs, and mutual options.  The trade market also fully re-opens today, and it is rare but not totally uncommon to see a prominent swap take place as soon as the market opens.

NOVEMBER 7-10: The annual GM meetings, this year taking place in Las Vegas.

NOVEMBER 10: The free agent market officially opens, and free agents are now free to negotiate and sign with other teams.  This is also the deadline for option decisions, as well as the deadline for teams to issue qualifying offers to eligible free agents.  MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently examined which players are most likely to receive the one-year, $19.65MM offers from their current teams, and which players represent trickier decisions for the clubs.

NOVEMBER 14-17: Awards week begins, as the league announces the results of one major award on each of these four days. The Rookie Of The Year winners are revealed on the 14th, the Manager Of The Year winners on the 15th, the Cy Young Award winners on the 16th, and finally the league MVPs on the 17th.  Many players can earn extra contract bonus money based on high finishes in these awards races, but there is an extra hot-stove element this year.  Due to the Prospect Promotion Incentive plan included in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, the top two finishers in AL and NL ROY voting will receive a full year of Major League service time, regardless of how much time they actually spent on their clubs’ active rosters.

NOVEMBER 15: The deadline for teams to set their 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 draft.  This usually involves adding some prominent minor leaguers onto the 40-man to prevent their selection in the R5, and several clubs might be looking to swing trades to free up 40-man space and ease any possible roster crunch.

NOVEMBER 15: The deadline for the free agents issued qualifying offers to decide whether or not to accept the QO.

NOVEMBER 18: The non-tender deadline, as teams must decide by this date whether or not to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players.  This date represents a notable difference to the regular offseason calendar, as the non-tender deadline is usually in late November or early December.  Given the closer proximity to the 40-man roster decision date, it seems quite possible we could see some earlier non-tender decisions than usual, so teams can free up more roster spots.

DECEMBER 4-7: The annual Winter Meetings, this year taking place in San Diego.

DECEMBER 7: The Rule 5 Draft, returning to its usual date on the final day of the Winter Meetings.  Last year’s Rule 5 Draft was canceled due to the lockout, marking the first time since 1891 that some form of the R5 didn’t take place.

JANUARY 13: The filing deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to submit 2023 salary numbers.  Arbitration hearings will begin to take place in March, though teams and players can agree to a salary at any point (even minutes before) a hearing takes place.  However, many teams adopt the “file and trial” tactic, meaning that they’ll automatically opt to go to a hearing with any player who doesn’t agree to a salary by January 13, with no further discussion about an arbitration-avoiding deal.

JANUARY 15: The international signing window officially opens, and closes 11 months later on December 15, 2023.  Many of the top names of the 2023 int’l class will sign on the first day the market opens, as several of these prospects have already agreed to unofficial deals with teams years in advance.  Because Major League Baseball and the MLBPA didn’t reach an agreement on the league’s desire to implement a draft for international prospects, the current int’l signing system and the qualifying-offer system will both remain in place for the length of the CBA (though the 2026 season).

FEBRUARY 24: Spring Training games officially begin.

MARCH 8: The World Baseball Classic begins, with games played in Taichung, Tokyo, Phoenix and Miami over the course of the 14-day, 20-team event.  The WBC returns for the first time since 2017, as the 2021 tournament was canceled due to the pandemic.

MARCH 30: Opening Day

The Astros Win The World Series

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For the second time in franchise history, the Houston Astros have won the World Series.  Houston clinched the championship with a 4-1 victory over the Phillies tonight in Game 6, fueled by a massive home run from Yordan Alvarez in the sixth inning.  With the Phillies leading 1-0 after the top of the sixth, starter Zack Wheeler (who had been cruising in the game) was pulled after allowing two baserunners, a decision that will lead to decades of second-guessing in Philadelphia.  Reliever Jose Alvarado promptly allowed a 450-foot home run to Alvarez that put the Astros ahead for good.

The Astros won 106 games during the regular season, and had a perfect 7-0 record throughout the American League playoffs to capture the pennant.  However, the Phillies took a 2-1 lead through the first three games of World Series, leading to speculation that Philadelphia’s power bats had the edge over Houston’s vaunted pitching staff.  That speculation was quieted in a big way when the Phillies scored only three total runs over the remaining three games of the Series, starting when four Astros pitchers (led by Cristian Javier’s six innings) combined for a no-hitter in Game 4.

That historic win restored the sense of invincibility that followed Houston for much of the season, as the team showed few weaknesses while fielding an excellent lineup, rotation, and bullpen.  The franchise’s extensive rebuild period under former GM Jeff Luhnow built a farm system and player development pipeline that continues to excel, given how the bulk of the World Series roster was comprised of homegrown players.  This included Javier, Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy, and Luis Garcia — four lightly-regarded international prospects who joined future Hall-of-Famer Justin Verlander and (former first round pick) Lance McCullers Jr. to create an outstanding pitching staff.

The Astros have won two championships and made two other World Series appearances (in 2019 and 2021) over the last six seasons, an extended run of dominance over the big leagues.  Of course, no discussion is complete without mention of the sign-stealing scandal that tainted the memory of the 2017 championship, and resulted in the firings of both Luhnow and former manager A.J. Hinch following the 2019 season.  For many fans, no amount of time will soften the hard feelings directed towards the organization, though only five players — Verlander, McCullers, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Yuli Gurriel — remain from the 2017 roster.

Houston’s ability to reload and restock its roster has been impressive, as the team has brought some new talent into the organization and also continued to rely on its farm system.  For instance, after Carlos Correa left in free agency last winter, the Astros had confidence that top prospect Jeremy Pena would be able to step into Correa’s big shoes.  Fast forward to November, and Pena has followed up an impressive rookie season with World Series MVP honors — only the third rookie to ever capture the award.

After winning a World Series as a player with the Dodgers in 1981, Dusty Baker had to wait 41 more years and through 25 seasons as a manager before capturing his second ring.  Baker’s excellent track record (2093 regular season wins) already made a Cooperstown induction a likelihood, but after years of close calls and disappointments in the postseason, Baker finally captured his first title as a manager at age 73.  Baker was only signed through the 2022 season, yet the Astros are expected to offer him a new deal, and Baker himself told David Ortiz in an interview that “I said if I win one, I want to win two.”

Verlander is expected to opt out of his contract to re-enter the free agent market, but the bulk of the Astros’ core will be under contract and control for 2023, making Houston an early favorite to repeat.  Perhaps the biggest question is in the front office, as there has been quite a bit of speculation that GM James Click (whose contract is also now up) won’t be invited back for next season, due to some clashes with owner Jim Crane.  Click’s fate will be a major talking point in the days now following the World Series, and given the talent already on hand in the organization, the Astros’ GM job might be the most coveted in all of baseball.

Latest On Rangers, Martin Perez

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Both during and after Martin Perez’s bounce-back season, the veteran left-hander and the Rangers shared mutual interest in a potential contract extension.  The two sides have met for negotiations, and while no deal has yet emerged, Rangers GM Chris Young told the Dallas Morning News’ Evan Grant that “we continue to have good conversations.  We’re hopeful of getting something done, but we’re considering various options, including the qualifying offer.  We understand that Martín will have value on the free agent market.”

Once the World Series is over, teams have five days to issue qualifying offers (a one-year, $19.65MM deal) to any eligible free agents.  Perez fits the bill for eligibility, as a player who has never received a QO in the past, and who spent the entire 2022 season with one team.  If a free agent rejects a qualifying offer and signs elsewhere, his former team would then receive a compensatory draft pick — in the Rangers’ case, that pick would fall between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round, so a pick around 75th and 80th overall.

That extra draft selection would be particularly useful for a Texas club that lost picks for signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien (who both rejected QOs) last winter in free agency, and who might very well be prepared to lose more picks for other qualifying-offer free agents this offseason.  The Rangers are expected to continue being aggressive as they look to finally get back into contention, and any number big names could be on the radar in Young’s first winter running the front office.

That said, starting pitching is the Rangers’ most glaring need, so a reunion with Perez could well be more valuable in the short term than the bigger-term value of a compensatory draft pick.  If Perez did accept the one-year qualifying offer, nothing prevents the two sides from continuing to discuss a multi-year deal.  Back in the 2019-20 offseason, Jose Abreu accepted the QO from the White Sox, and shortly thereafter signed a new extension that added two additional years beyond his commitment to the 2020 campaign.

These are some of the reasons that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco listed Perez as a borderline possibility in his recent preview of the qualifying-offer market, as both Perez and the Rangers face some interesting pros and cons regarding the QO.  As Franco noted, Perez’s underlying metrics didn’t reveal any huge difference between Perez’s 2022 season and the southpaw’s more inconsistent past seasons.  If the Rangers think some regression is coming, they just might not value Perez at the $19.65MM price point.  While the Rangers would naturally be offering him more total dollars over the course of a multi-year arrangement, spreading out that cost over at least two seasons might be more palatable from the team’s perspective, especially if Texas is planning to start spending closer to the luxury tax threshold in the next year or two.

$19.65MM would easily represent the biggest single-season salary of Perez’s career, and he could opt to accept the QO simply to cash in on his comeback season.  However, with almost $36MM earned over 11 Major League seasons, Perez has already banked quite a bit of financial security.  Coming off four straight one-year contracts and entering his age-32 season, Perez might be looking for more stability at this point in his career, and might prefer a multi-year contract to a one-year pact, even at the higher $19.65MM price point of a qualifying offer.

Once that five-day period after the World Series ends, free agency officially opens to the entire league, and the Rangers lose their exclusive negotiating rights with Perez.  The deadline for players to decide on accepting or rejecting qualifying offers doesn’t come until 10 days after the opening of free agency, giving Perez more time to ponder his choice if Texas did opt to issue the QO.

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