The Surprise Ace Of Last Year’s Free Agent Class
As the 22 teams that aren’t currently focused on capturing the 2024 World Series title gear up for the coming offseason, many will surely be keeping an eye on the number of high-profile free agent starters set to hit the market this winter with Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried, and Jack Flaherty among the consensus top arms. It’s a class that’s not entirely dissimilar from last winter’s group of top arms, which was headlined by a quartet of Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Aaron Nola, and Jordan Montgomery.
Those top free agent arms garnered a combined guarantee of more than $600MM last winter, and the results were generally commensurate with that production. While Montgomery struggled badly with the Diamondbacks, Nola put up a fairly typical season by his standards with the Phillies this year (albeit with slightly diminished peripherals) and both Snell and Yamamoto fought through injury woes to dominate as expected when healthy. That said, a starter who was looked at more as a mid-rotation type of arm last winter surprised the baseball world by emerging with numbers comparable to those at the very top of the class.
That hurler was Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga, who was generally looked at as a tier below the aforementioned group alongside Eduardo Rodriguez, Lucas Giolito, and Sonny Gray. In spite of rumors that Imanaga’s market could top $100MM when all was said and done, the southpaw lingered in free agency into the new year before eventually signing with Chicago on a deal that fell far below expectations. While the deal maxes out at five years and $80MM, just a stone’s throw away from MLBTR’s prediction of $85MM over five years, the deal came with a complex structure that only guaranteed Imanaga $53MM, or roughly two thirds of that $80MM total figure.
It’s not hard to see why teams were seemingly bearish on Imanaga. After all, the 30-year-old lefty was coming over from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball at an age that’s roughly in line with a typical MLB free agent rather than the younger age many NPB players such as Yamamoto and teammate Seiya Suzuki make their way to the majors at. Yamamoto was marketing his age-25 season last year, while Suzuki marketed his age-27 season over the 2021-22 offseason. With many of Imanaga’s prime years already behind him, he maintained all the risk of providing a hefty sum to a player with no MLB experience without much of the perceived upside that would come with signing a player in their mid-20s.
Even aside from Imanaga’s age, it’s also worth noting that the lefty’s profile as a pitcher drew significant questions. The southpaw doesn’t throw especially hard, having averaged just 91.9mph on his heater this year, and some scouting reports (including one from Brandon Tew of Sports Info Solutions) raised questions about his ability to manage home runs at the big league level due to his fly ball-oriented profile. While Imanaga’s deep pitch mix and high-end stuff metrics offered reason for optimism regarding his future in the big leagues, the lefty nevertheless entered his first MLB season with plenty of questions surrounding him.
Fortunately for both Imanaga and the Cubs, he answered those questions in resounding fashion with an excellent rookie campaign. Overall, the lefty posted a 2.91 ERA (37% better than league average by ERA+) with a strong 25.1% strikeout rate that was 16th-best among qualified starters this year. He paired that strikeout stuff with excellent control, walking just 4% of opponents faced this year. That’s a figure topped by only George Kirby, Miles Mikolas, and Zach Eflin among all big leaguers this year and leaves him with a fantastic 21% K-BB that leaves him sandwiched between ace righties Zack Wheeler and Dylan Cease on the NL leaderboard.
That being said, not everything about Imanaga’s 2024 performance was dominant. His 3.72 FIP is rather pedestrian (just 6% better than league average by FIP-) and more advanced metrics such as xERA and SIERA, while more bullish than FIP on his performance, nonetheless see him as more of a 3.50 ERA pitcher than the 2.91 figure he actually posted this year. The main culprit for that discrepancy between results and metrics is the very same weakness that drew some skepticism last winter: his proclivity for giving up homers. Imanaga surrendered 27 home runs this year, tied with Twins righty Bailey Ober for ninth-most among all qualified starters in 2024.
While that’s certainly not a completely untenable figure, it would certainly be fair to wonder if Imanaga is due for some regression heading into next season. Of the eight pitchers who surrendered more homers than Imanaga this year, none came close to his sterling ERA with only Nola (3.57) and Jose Berrios (3.60) posting an figure that was even within a full run of Imanaga’s 2.91 mark. Between his hefty home run rate and an above-average 80.2% strand rate this year, it would hardly be a surprise if the emergent ace put up numbers closer to the mid-rotation ceiling he was thought to have this time last year come 2025.
Of course, even a step back that aligns Imanaga’s performance more closely with his advanced metrics would leave the Cubs with an excellent #2 starter behind ace Justin Steele who they should have no concerns about starting in a hypothetical playoff series. Barring dramatic regression on the part of Imanaga next year, it seems very likely that the Cubs will guarantee the lefty the full $80MM value of his contract rather than risk him opting out following the 2025 campaign, which he would be able to do if the Cubs decline to guarantee the full contract.
Rays Could Deal From Rotation Depth This Offseason
After the club’s first losing season in six years, the Rays are headed into what figures to be a pivotal offseason for the club as they look to remain contenders in a highly competitive AL East division. As noted by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, one way the club could look to address its lackluster offense (29th in the majors in runs scored this year) this winter is by trading from their rotation depth to acquire a bat, even if that bat doesn’t address their reported offseason priority of improving the club at catcher.
For a Tampa club that enters the winter in serious need of an offensive boost, it’s hard to deny the logic in dealing from their deep group of available arms. Youngsters Taj Bradley, Shane Baz, and Ryan Pepiot all emerged as solid, affordable rotation options for the club this year, and Zack Littell‘s first full season in a big league rotation seems to have established him as a quality mid-rotation option with one year to go before free agency.
Meanwhile, Jeffrey Springs returned to make seven solid starts for the club in the second half after undergoing Tommy John surgery early last year and Drew Rasmussen also rejoined the club’s pitching staff late in the year following his own 2023 elbow surgery. Rasmussen pitched primarily in a relief role this year, never throwing more than 38 pitches in an outing, but figures to be a rotation option for the Rays come Spring Training. That also figures to be the case for lefty Shane McClanahan, who went under the knife last August but figures to be ready for Spring Training as well.
With at least seven quality rotation options even after dealing away Aaron Civale and Zach Eflin at the trade deadline over the summer, it would certainly make sense for the club to explore dealing from that depth in order to address the offense. The Braves, Cubs, and Red Sox are all already known to be interested in adding rotation help this winter, while the Orioles and Mets are among the many other teams that could stand to benefit from adding a starter or two this winter as well. With even more clubs sure to look to bolster their pitching when the offseason fully gets underway following the World Series, the Rays should be well positioned to make a deal if they so choose.
Given the club’s small-market payroll and focus on long-term sustainability, it would be something of a surprise to see the Rays move on from any of Bradley, Baz, or Pepiot without recouping a similarly talented and controllable bat in return. On the other hand, it wouldn’t be a shock if clubs were hesitant to deal for McClanahan or Rasmussen given the former hasn’t pitched in more than a year while the latter hasn’t stretched out to start since returning from injury. That could leave Littell and Springs as the most likely candidates to be dealt this winter, with each hurler having various pros and cons as a trade candidate.
When it comes to Littell, the argument for dealing him is rather straightforward: the righty is only under team control through the end of the 2025 season and projects for a not insignificant $4.8MM in his final trip through arbitration according to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, so by dealing him the Rays could save a bit of money to address other areas of the roster while also potentially bringing in a more controllable player to complement their offense. With that being said, Littell’s status as a rental could dampen the return for his services somewhat on the heels of a 3.63 ERA campaign that was more solid than excellent.
If teams aren’t scared off by Springs’s lack of volume over the past few years, then, he might be able to bring back a more significant return. After all, the southpaw has been dominant when healthy with a 2.44 ERA and 3.10 FIP in 184 1/3 innings of work since 2022, when he first became a starter. Results that strong would be valuable to virtually any rotation in baseball, and Springs’s $21.75MM guarantee over the next two years lands in the sort of sweet spot that would make him a relative bargain for other teams while still clearing a significant financial burden off the books in Tampa, allowing Erik Neander and his front office to explore further upgrades in free agency even beyond what Springs would bring back in trade.
How Will The Cardinals Handle Their Rotation Options?
The coming offseason figures to be a tumultuous one for the Cardinals. Coming off a second consecutive season where the club missed the playoffs, St. Louis brass have already announced that significant changes are coming, headlined by Chaim Bloom stepping in to take over baseball operations following the 2025 season (with a larger role in the meantime) and the club planning to slash payroll as they figure to bring back few if any of their departing veteran players.
While Paul Goldschmidt headlines the list of players who appear likely to don another uniform in 2025, what’s not yet clear is what the club intends to do about its starting rotation. Rumors have swirled that the club could shop staff ace Sonny Gray this winter as they look to trim payroll and focus on developing young players, and if Gray were to be moved that would leave only struggling veteran Miles Mikolas, oft-injured swingman Steven Matz, breakout youngster Andre Pallante, and deadline acquisition Erick Fedde as rotation options on guaranteed contracts for 2025. With some interesting young arms such as Michael McGreevey, Sem Robberse, and Adam Kloffenstein in the wings as potential contributors next year, it’s not hard to imagine St. Louis getting solid enough production from its internal options.
With that being said, however, their current rotation picture offers very little certainty, especially should Gray wind up pitching elsewhere next year. After all, even Pallante and Fedde lack track records of success in a big league rotation that go beyond the current season. Fortunately, the Cards have not one but two options available to them that could help raise the floor on their 2025 rotation at a relatively cheap price: Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn. The veteran hurlers will play at ages 37 and 38 respectively next year, but both posted solid results as back-end rotation options for the club this year and come with identical $12MM club options (with $1MM buyouts) for 2025. Given the club’s focus on the future and desire to trim payroll, it would be something of a surprise if both options were exercised. Given the many similarities between the two veteran Midwest natives, it’s fair to wonder which of the two hurlers would be a better choice for the Cardinals to retain next year, and which one they should send into free agency.
Of the two, retaining Lynn would surely offer a higher ceiling. The veteran hurler pitched the first six seasons of his career in St. Louis as a perfectly capable mid-rotation arm, but had a late-career breakout with the Rangers and White Sox that saw him pitch like a true top-of-the-rotation ace: from 2019 to 2021, Lynn posted a strong 3.26 ERA that was 46% better than league average with a 3.39 FIP and a 27.5% strikeout rate. He also enjoyed slightly better results than Gibson did this year, with advantages in ERA (3.84 vs 4.24), FIP (4.31 vs 4.42), and strikeout rate (21.3% vs 20.9%). For a club that’s likely to rely primarily on internal improvements in order to maintain hopes of contending for a playoff spot in 2025, there’s an argument to be made that Lynn’s ceiling and stronger results this season make him the smarter choice to retain going forward.
That’s not to say there isn’t a case to be made for Gibson, however. While the 12-year MLB veteran has never flashed the ceiling Lynn did during his peak, Gibson is more dependable in some ways. The groundballer rarely misses time due to injury, having made at least 29 starts in nine of his ten full seasons in the majors. By contrast, Lynn was limited to just 21 starts in 2022 and 23 starts this year by knee issues. What’s more, even as Lynn posted stronger overall numbers with the Cardinals this year, certain underlying metrics actually painted a much less clear picture: Gibson’s 4.44 SIERA is nearly identical to Lynn’s 4.40 figure, while Gibson actually wins on both xERA (4.90 vs 4.93) and xFIP (4.19 vs 4.39) thanks in part to a much stronger grounder rate (44.8% vs 36.3%).
While Gibson’s ceiling may not be as high as Lynn’s his reliability could be particularly valuable for a club that figures to rely heavily on young arms who may not yet be ready for a full season’s workload next year, and his comparable expected metrics call into question just how much of an advantage Lynn really has in terms of run prevention. Of course, it’s also worth noting that the club could choose a third option and decline both club options in hopes of finding similar production at a lower cost in free agency. It would be a risky choice to make given the rising costs of pitching in recent years, but a back-end arm like Martin Perez, Jose Urena, or Michael Lorenzen could theoretically be had at a lower price than either veteran’s club option depending on how this winter’s market shakes out. Of course, any player available at that price point would surely have flaws of their own.
How should the Cardinals handle their upcoming club options in the rotation? Have your say in the poll below:
Which Option Should The Cardinals Pick Up This Winter?
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Decline Both Options In Hopes Of A Better Deal In Free Agency 51% (1,824)
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Pick Up Kyle Gibson's Option 36% (1,290)
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Pick Up Lance Lynn's Option 12% (433)
Total votes: 3,547
Clayton Kershaw Won’t Return In 2024
5:15pm: Kershaw spoke to reporters (including Ardaya) this afternoon about the injury and revealed that his attempts to return from the injury have worsened his toe’s condition. Kershaw added that offseason surgery to address the bone spurs is “in the conversation” but indicated that no decision has been made to this point on the topic. When addressing his future Kershaw indicated that he still enjoys pitching but did not want to discuss his plans in detail until after the season has come to a close.
3:33pm: The Dodgers are scheduled to begin Game 1 of the NLDS against the Padres later this evening, and among the pitchers notably absent from their roster for the series is veteran southpaw Clayton Kershaw. That’s not a surprise given that he was previously said to be targeting a return sometime in mid-October, but today manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register) that the Dodgers will actually be without Kershaw for the entire postseason. Plunkett adds that, according to Roberts, the bone spurs in Kershaw’s big toe have not improved since he went on the IL back in August, adding that things may actually have worsened since then.
The news officially brings to an end an injury-plagues season for Kershaw, who leaves the 2024 campaign behind with a 4.50 ERA (87 ERA+) and 3.87 FIP in 30 innings of work across seven starts while striking out just 18% of opponents. That’s by far the lowest strikeout rate of his career and the first time his ERA+ has been below average since his rookie campaign back in 2008, when his 98 ERA+ came in just a hair below average. While low walk and home run rates help to salvage some of Kershaw’s peripheral numbers, 2024 will nonetheless go down as the worst season of the veteran’s career to this point, though given the small sample its difficult to draw conclusion about his ability when healthy enough to take the mound.
Kershaw holds a $10MM player option for the 2025 season, though after occasionally contemplating retirement over the past few offseasons it’s not yet clear whether or not he’ll exercise that option or wait to decide on his future until later in the winter. Should he decide to continue his career into 2025, the future Hall of Famer will surely be welcomed back by the only team he’s ever known during an offseason where the club is sure to pursue rotation additions with only Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Gavin Stone locked into the 2025 starting rotation alongside Shohei Ohtani, whose return to the mound will likely necessitate moving to a six-man staff.
In the meantime, however, the Dodgers will need to piece together production from a rotation that offers little certainty outside of Yamamoto and deadline acquisition Jack Flaherty throughout the postseason. A struggling Walker Buehler (5.38 ERA in 16 starts) and rookie Landon Knack (3.65 ERA in 69 frames this year) stand as the club’s most likely starting options to fill out the rotation behind Yamamoto and Flaherty, who are set to start Games 1 and 2 respectively.
Aside from Kershaw, right-hander Joe Kelly was also left off the club’s NLDS roster. It was a difficult year for Kelly, who allowed a 4.78 ERA across 35 relief appearances while battling injuries. That includes a shoulder issue that bothered him throughout the final weeks of the season, and Roberts told reporters (including Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic) that the veteran right-hander won’t be available until at least the World Series after tweaking his shoulder during a simulated game this week. Without Kelly in the fold, the Dodgers figure to rookie Edgardo Henriquez to fill out their bullpen for the NLDS.
Pirates Notes: Skenes, Bednar, Hayes
After a difficult season that saw the Pirates flash signs of life in the first half with a 48-48 record before crashing to a 28-38 record after the All-Star break, Pittsburgh GM Ben Cherington discussed a few of the club’s key players as they team now looks ahead toward the 2025 campaign and the coming offseason.
Chief among those was like NL Rookie of the Year favorite Paul Skenes. For all of the club’s faults this year, Skenes was the most obvious bright spot as he was nothing short of dominant practically from the moment he made his big league debut back in May. In 23 starts from then on, Skenes posted an eye-popping 1.96 ERA with an excellent 2.45 FIP. With a 33.1% strikeout rate across his 133 innings of work, Skenes was perhaps the most dominant pitcher in all of MLB this year. The one flaw in is otherwise dominant rookie campaign was volume, as Skenes threw just 160 1/3 innings of work in total this year between the major and minor leagues. That includes eight starts where Skenes failed to pass 80 pitches in his outing.
Fortunately, that seeming unwillingness to have Skenes pitch deep into games faded as his season continued, with the right-hander ultimately throwing more than 100 pitches in six of his 23 big league outings. What’s more, Cherington told reporters (including Alex Stumpf of MLB.com) that the hard-throwing righty could find himself unleashed completely next year. Cherington indicated that the Pirates do not currently plan on “any sort of hard limits” on Skenes’s innings or pitch counts headed into 2025, leaving the door open for Skenes to post an even stronger season next year should he be able to post something close to this season’s results over a full slate of 30 starts. The righty figures to headline Pittsburgh’s rotation next year, followed by Jared Jones and Mitch Keller. There’s some uncertainty at the back of the club’s rotation behind those three, but Johan Oviedo, Luis L. Ortiz, and Bailey Falter could all be in the mix for starts as well.
Looking beyond the rotation, Cherington notably also offered a vote of confidence in longtime closer David Bednar, who struggled badly throughout the 2024 campaign and was eventually removed from the closer role in late August. Bednar’s results improved over the month of September but his peripheral numbers remained shaky, as he posted a solid 3.38 ERA but walked (ten) more batters than he struck out (nine) across 10 2/3 innings of work. That left Bednar with an overall ERA of 5.77 on the year, and while his 4.80 FIP offered some reason for optimism even that figure was still worse than average as it was held back by a 10.7% walk rate.
Given Bednar’s brutal performance and a fairly considerable $6.6MM salary projection for next season courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the club explore moving on from Bednar this winter. If that possibility is on the table, however, Cherington did not acknowledge it. On the contrary, Stumpf notes that Cherington suggested Bednar could even recapture the closer’s role in time for 2025. Even in spite of Bednar’s poor performance, such an outcome would hardly be a shock. After all, the club has few proven relievers under team control besides Colin Holderman and Bednar dominated to the tune of a 2.25 ERA with a 2.56 FIP over the 2021-23 seasons. If Bednar can even come close to that sort of production next year, he’d be well worth the $6.6MM investment via arbitration.
Now turning to the positional side, Cherington also provided a small update (as relayed by Stumpf) on third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes. A former top-of-the-line infield prospect who enjoyed something of a breakout campaign in 2023 where he paired excellent defense with a roughly league average at, Hayes appeared sure to join Skenes, Jones, and Oneil Cruz among the club’s core this season. Instead, injuries derailed Hayes’s year completely. He was limited to just 96 games by a disc problem in his back that sent him to the injured list twice this year and left him playing through pain for the majority of the year when he was on the field. The injury marred campaign led to disastrous results, as Hayes hit just .233/.283/.290 in 396 trips to the plate alongside defensive numbers that were a far cry from previous seasons.
Difficult as 2024 was for Hayes, however, Cherington expressed optimism about the infielder’s status as he looked ahead to 2025. The GM acknowledged that there’s “always some level of concern” regarding an injured player until he’s once again on the field, but added that he believes the club is better informed about Hayes’s injury situation and that the third baseman is “excited” to return to action in 2025. When Hayes was unable to take the field this year, Jared Triolo and Isiah Kiner-Falefa were the club’s primary options at the hot corner this year. Both players are in line to return to the club next year and could continue backing up the position in the event Hayes struggles to stay on the field in 2025 as well.
Management Notes: Marlins, Twins, Angels
With the majority of teams done playing for the year, many clubs have already gotten a head start on making moves that will eventually impact the 2025 squad. While free agency won’t open until next month, a number of clubs have already announced changes to their staffs as they look for new voices following disappointing seasons.
Among those clubs is the Marlins, who parted ways with manager Skip Schumaker when the 2024 season came to a close in a long-anticipated move that will allow president of baseball operations Peter Bendix to select his own manager for the first time after replacing Kim Ng at the head of Miami’s baseball operations last offseason. While Schumaker has generally been regarded as among the most attractive potential managerial candidates available this winter, the Marlins will have to look elsewhere to replace the 2023 NL Manager of the Year, and their new manager will have a tall task after the club initiated a complete overhaul of their coaching staff that the club’s new skipper figures to pilot.
While the Marlins have surely already begun their managerial search, the club has not yet been reported to have interest in any possible names for the job. That being said, there’s at least one candidate who has seeming thrown his hat into the ring: 16-year MLB veteran Anibal Sanchez, who pitched for the Marlins from his big league debut in 2006 through the first half of the 2012 season. Sanchez, who officially retired back in 2023, has no affiliated coaching experience but has previously expressed interest in coaching or managing in the majors at some point in the future.
Even so, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported yesterday that the long-time hurler has reached out to the team to convey interest in the position. It would be something of a shock if the Marlins decided to hire Sanchez, however. The 40-year-old, as previously mentioned, has no significant coaching or managerial experience. That’s not always an obstacle to hiring a manager, of course; David Ross was hired to helm the club’s dugout following the 2019 season just three seasons after he retired and without any significant coaching experience on his resume. With that being said, Ross had strong ties to then-president of baseball operations Theo Epstein. There is no such clear connection between Sanchez and Bendix, who spent his entire career prior to joining the Marlins in a Rays organization that Sanchez never pitched for.
Other notes from around the league…
- Looking toward upper management, the Twins recently made waves when longtime GM Thad Levine, who has served as the #2 to chief baseball officer Derek Falvey throughout Falvey’s entire tenure in Minnesota, stepped down from his role with the club in order to pursue other opportunities. With Falvey and manager Rocco Baldelli both set to remain in their positions for 2025, Levine represents the most significant departure from club management on the heels of a disappointing season where the Twins missed the playoffs following a massive collapse in September. Levine recently commented on his departure (as relayed by Phil Miller of the Minnesota Star Tribune) and emphasized that he’s parting ways with the club on good terms. “I kind of liken myself to Mary Poppins — the kids know how to clean up their rooms now and take their medicine,” Levine told reporters, including Miller. “They don’t need someone singing in the background to do it.” Notably, Levine has been a candidate for top baseball operations jobs in recent years, including the Red Sox chief baseball officer position for which he was a finalist last winter.
- Turning even further up the food chain to comments from ownership, Angels owner Arte Moreno has at times indicated an openness to selling the franchise in the past. In 2022, the now-78-year-old went as far as to announce the exploration of a possible sale, though it was just a few months later that he seemingly changed his mind and took his franchise of the market. Back in February, Moreno indicated that he plans to continue his ownership “long-term” and had previously rebuffed potential buyers, insisting the club was off the market. In a phone interview with Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register this afternoon, however, Moreno indicated the door for a potential sale my not be fully closed. “I can’t tell you about the future,” Moreno said (as relayed by Fletcher) “If someone makes some stupid, crazy offer, I’ve got to do what’s best for the family. I do the best I can to run it as a business.” While it seems unlikely that a sale will ultimately come together given the fact that Moreno seemingly set the bar at a “crazy offer” in order to get a deal done, the comments are still nonetheless a notable shift in tone from just eight months ago for the longtime owner.
Erik Neander Discusses Offseason Plans, Rays Payroll
Rays president of baseball operations Erik Neander recently held his end of season press conference, where he indicated that the club figures to prioritize improving behind the plate after an 80-82 season that saw them stave off elimination from postseason contention until the final week of September despite engaging in a major sell-off prior to the trade deadline. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relayed some of Neander’s comments from the end of season presser, where he discusses the decision to sell over the summer and the club’s future headed into 2025.
When discussing his decision to sell off key, controllable pieces like outfielder Randy Arozarena and third baseman Isaac Paredes at this summer’s trade deadline, Neander readily acknowledge the possibility that the club may have been able to cobble together enough extra wins to sneak into the postseason had they decided against selling. With that being said, Neander offered a major sign for optimism headed into the coming winter: After cutting more than a third of the club’s expected payroll commitments for 2025 off the books over the summer (with Topkin suggesting that $45MM in 2025 dollars came off the books prior to the deadline), the Rays now have a healthy amount of financial flexibility with which to operate this winter.
It’s a major change from just last offseason, when the club had to part ways with expensive veterans Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot in order to get payroll within the club’s small market budget. This winter, not only is a similar cost-cutting sell off not necessary, but Topkin suggests the club will have some room to make additions this winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Tampa’s 12-man arbitration class to make a combined $25.6MM in 2025. Even if Tampa retains each of those players and exercises Brandon Lowe‘s $10.5MM club option for next year, RosterResource suggests that would leave them with just under $75MM on the books for next year. That’s $14MM below the club’s 2024 mark, $4MM below where the club ended up in 2023, and $11MM below their 2022 figure.
That should be more than enough payroll flexibility for the Rays to address their stated priority this winter of improving behind the plate. Ben Rortvedt figures to remain in place as a member of the catching tandem after a decent season where he posted a wRC+ of 87 while playing solid but unspectacular defense behind the plate. Finding a right-handed catcher to complement the lefty swinging Rortvedt, though Topkin cautions that the club is likely to focus on short-term solutions behind the plate given their belief in youngster Dom Keegan. The 24-year-old was selected by the Rays in the fourth round of the 2022 draft and since then has made it to Double-A, here he hit an impressive .285/.371/.435 in 104 games this year.
Topkin notes that with Keegan set to begin the 2025 campaign in Triple-A and the possibility of him emerging as an option behind the plate as soon as this season, Neander and his front office seemingly view Keegan as a potential long-term answer behind the plate. A good middle ground for the club could be pursuing an older catcher who might be more open to a one-year deal such as Elias Diaz or Kyle Higashioka. The addition of either player would provide the club with a solid platoon partner for Rortvedt while not blocking Keegan in the longer term.
Aside from upgrading behind the plate, Topkin adds that Neander plans to look for ways to address the club’s lackluster offense. The club’s 95 wRC+ was good for just 23rd in the majors this year, and their offensive flaws were further exposed by the fact that the team scored just 604 runs this year, less than any club except the historically bad White Sox. While that dearth of runs seems to suggest that the club ought to look to make significant changes to the offense, Neander actually suggested that he hopes the club can improve its offense internally.
There’s some logic to that, as offensive stalwart Yandy Diaz got off to a cold start in 2024 before heating up and rebounding with a strong second half, while Christopher Morel struggled badly in his first half-season of work away from Chicago after being dealt by the Cubs in the Paredes trade. More typical seasons from Diaz and Morel, as well as a strong first 162-game campaign from exciting youngster Junior Caminero, could boost the club’s offense in a hurry. Even so, however, it’s easy to imagine the club benefit a great deal from an external upgrade to the lineup at a position such as shortstop, where both Jose Caballero and Taylor Walls clocked in well below league average this year.
Moreno: Angels Plan To Compete, Increase Payroll In 2025
The first post-Shohei Ohtani season of Angels baseball was a difficult one for fans, as the Halos finished dead last in a weak AL West division with a 63-99 record that just barely kept them from posting the first 100-loss season in franchise history.
With Ohtani no longer in the fold and the team just having finished up its worst season yet, speculation regarding a potential rebuild as swirled around the team but owner Arte Moreno put any such rumors to bed during a phone interview with Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register earlier today. During the interview, Moreno made clear that the goal he’s laying out for the organization is to contend for a playoff spot in 2025. It’s a lofty goal considering the fact that only the lowly White Sox finished with fewer wins than Anaheim this season, but Moreno added that payroll is “going to go up” to accommodate his dreams of contention next year.
With that being said, it doesn’t appear a major increase in payroll is expected. After payroll dropped significant from 2023 to 2024, Moreno now suggests that the club’s budget for 2025 figures to fall somewhere in between the (per RosterResource) $176MM the team put forward this year and the $215MM the club spent during Ohtani’s final season with the organization. It’s not exactly clear where Moreno’s target payroll lands in between those two figures, but the Angels should have some room to maneuver this winter regardless. After all, the club’s 2025 books have just over $109MM in guaranteed contracts for 2025. That doesn’t include salaries for the Halos’ rather large arbitration class, but even if each player is tendered a contract in line with the projections by MLBTR Contributor Matt Swartz they’d still be sitting at a tidy $147MM for 2025, or nearly $30MM below last year’s payroll.
That could leave the club with as much as $50MM in payroll flexibility, should Moreno cap the club’s payroll just below $200MM. What’s more, Moreno also suggested that this offseason’s payroll increase should be sustainable for the club, though he cautioned that if payroll were to creep back to 2023 levels in the future it would have to face similar cuts to what it did last winter, with Moreno indicating that the budget for 2023 wasn’t sustainable.
“It’s just an automatic loss,” Moreno said of the club’s $215MM payroll in 2023, as relayed by Fletcher. “If I start piling up (financial) losses, then the next year I’m going to cut.”
Of course, even a relatively hefty financial investment is unlikely to drag the Angels out of the basement of the AL without significant internal improvements to their core group of players. The biggest boost would surely come from a healthy and effective season for Mike Trout, the club’s future Hall of Famer who has never been anything less than elite with the bat but has been limited to just 266 games over the past four seasons. A healthy season from Trout, even if he is no longer the perennial 8-win player he was at his peak, would be a game changer for the club’s offense. So too would steps forward from the club’s young core, including catcher Logan O’Hoppe, first baseman Nolan Schanuel, shortstop Zach Neto, and southpaw Reid Detmers.
2024 was a mixed bag for the quartet overall, with Detmers struggling badly throughout the year to the point that he spent most of the season in Triple-A while Neto enjoyed a breakout season that saw him combine 30 stolen bases with a 114 wRC+ as he locked down the the shortstop position for the Angels. Meanwhile, O’Hoppe and Schanuel both posted perfectly solid seasons, though with only average offense from both players and a step backward defensively from O’Hoppe there’s still plenty of room for both youngster to improve next year.
With Luis Rengifo and Taylor Ward among the other complementary pieces set to return to the club next year, it seems likely the Angels’ major obstacle this season will be patching up a pitching staff that ranked bottom five in the majors this year with a 4.57 ERA and ahead of only the lowly Rockies with a 4.68 FIP. Veteran lefty Tyler Anderson turned in a solid mid-rotation performance this year (3.81 ERA in 31 starts) and Detmers’s combination of strong pedigree and past success leave him likely to earn another shot as a starter next year, but a lackluster 2024 performance from Griffin Canning and midseason elbow surgery for lefty Patrick Sandoval both leave the club with few solid answers in the rotation for 2025.
The Angels have been notoriously hesitant to shop at the top of the starting pitching market throughout Moreno’s tenure as owner, so it would be a shock to see the club pursue a top arm such as Max Fried or Corbin Burnes this winter. Even so, playing in the mid-tier of free agency this winter could help the club add more certainty to its rotation with options like Luis Severino, Nathan Eovaldi, Sean Manaea, and former Angel Andrew Heaney among those expected to be available.
Reds Hire Terry Francona As Manager
Today: The Reds made things official on Friday morning, confirming they signed Francona to a three-year contract with a team option for the 2028 season.
October 3: The Reds are hiring Terry Francona as their next manager, per a report from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. The club has not yet confirmed the news, but Feinsand indicates an announcement is expected as soon as tomorrow. Per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer, Francona’s contract is a three-year deal.
Francona, 65, is among the most decorated managers in the league’s recent history. After a four-year stint managing the Phillies in the late 90s, Francona joined the Red Sox as manager prior to the 2004 season and piloted the club to their curse-breaking World Series championship in 2004. He went on to spend eight seasons in Boston, making the postseason in five of those years (including another World Series championship in 2007) while never posting a below-.500 season. He parted ways with the Red Sox prior to the 2011 season, however, and spent the next year away from managing with four top-5 finishes in AL Manager of the Year voting to his name in addition to a pair of World Series rings.
He returned to managing just a year after departing Boston, however, and spent the next 11 seasons in Cleveland. Francona’s tenure with the club was nothing short of magnificent, as he piloted the small-market franchise into consistent contention despite considerable payroll restrictions. During Francona’s tenure as manager, Cleveland enjoyed postseason baseball in six seasons while rattling off eight consecutive winning seasons and even reaching Game 7 of the World Series in 2016.
While the club ultimately fell to the Cubs in extra innings and was unable to capture another AL pennant during Francona’s tenure, their 2017 campaign was almost as impressive in some ways as Francona led them through a 22-game win streak that’s the longest in AL history and second only to the 1916 New York Giants’ 26-game win streak in MLB history. Francona’s 11 seasons with Cleveland saw him win three Manager of the Year awards as he captured the honor in 2013, 2016, and most recently in 2022 when he piloted the Guardians to an unlikely AL Central division title and within one game of the club’s first ALCS since 2016.
Francona’s time with the Guardians came to an end when he stepped down following the 2023 season amid long-standing health issues. At the time of his departure from the manager’s chair, Francona indicated to reporters (including those at ESPN) that his priority for 2024 was to “go home and get healthy and see what I miss about the game.” Clearly, the veteran skipper has decided that he misses being at the helm of a big league dugout as he will now return to Ohio as manager of the Reds, his first NL job since departing the Phillies in 2000.
He joins up with Cincinnati following a disappointing season that saw the club take a step back from last year’s 82-80 effort with a 77-85 season despite major breakouts for both star shortstop Elly De La Cruz and hard-throwing righty Hunter Greene. Injuries to key pieces like Matt McLain and Christian Encarnacion-Strand likely played a role in the club’s struggles but whatever hopes the club may have for health-related improvement next year wasn’t enough to convince the front office to retain David Bell, who missed the playoffs in five of his six seasons with the Reds. The club’s managerial search reportedly included younger names such as former Cubs skipper David Ross and departing Marlins manager Skip Schumaker, but the Reds will instead lean on Francona’s decades of experience in order to turn things around for the organization.
With Francona now in place, the Reds have now addressed perhaps the biggest question mark facing them this winter as they look towards the offseason with plenty of other hurdles that will need to be addressed. Chief among those could be their TV revenue situation, as Diamond Sports is reportedly planning to cut ties with the club, which could leave their financial picture uncertain headed into 2025. That’s a frustrating situation for any club, but perhaps especially for a Reds team that already runs among the league’s lower payrolls and figures to lose Nick Martinez to the open market later this winter on the heels of an excellent 2024 campaign that saw him help shore up both the club’s rotation and bullpen throughout the year.
The Opener: Reds, NLDS, ALDS
With the Wild Card Series behind us, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into the weekend:
1. Reds under new management:
The Reds’ managerial search came to a shocking end last night when it was reported that three-time Manager of the Year and two-time World Series champion Terry Francona is being hired to replace David Bell in the dugout. The Reds have not yet announced Tito’s hiring, but are expected to do so as soon as today. In a year that hasn’t seen much upheaval in the league’s dugouts to this point, Cincinnati’s surprise hiring of Francona takes perhaps the most attractive managerial gig available off the market though both the White Sox and Marlins have yet to name a manager for 2025 and it remains at least theoretically possible that one or more of the teams currently in the playoffs could make a change in the dugout following the postseason, though no club is an obvious candidate to do so.
2. NLDS starts this weekend:
There’s no playoff baseball scheduled for today as the remaining Wild Card teams rest up and prepare for their upcoming division series matchups. In the NL, there’s plenty of roster-related intrigue that figures to be settled this weekend before two pairs of division rivals clash. The Dodgers and Padres have already announced their starters for the first two games of the series, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3.00 ERA in 18 starts) set to face Dylan Cease (3.47 ERA) in Game 1 before Jack Flaherty (3.17 ERA) faces Yu Darvish (3.31 ERA in 16 starts) the next day. Of note, Dodgers shortstop Miguel Rojas told reporters (including Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times) that the left-adductor strain that left him sidelined for the final games of the Dodgers’ regular season is still bothering him with minimal progress. Rojas indicated that he intends to play through the issue, although Tommy Edman stands as a capable replacement at shortstop if necessary.
Meanwhile, the Mets and Phillies prepare to play this weekend with only one starter announced between the two teams: Philadelphia ace Zack Wheeler (2.57 ERA) is set to take the ball for Game 1. Neither team has made any sort of indications regarding who their Game 2 starters may be, and the Mets also haven’t announced who they’ll send to the mound opposite Wheeler. Even so, there’s at least some roster-related intrigue in this series as well: the Mets are reportedly contemplating the addition of right-hander Kodai Senga to their NLDS roster. Senga has spent most of 2024 on the IL after a breakout 2023 season, and while he won’t be available as a starter this series it is possible that the club could lean on him for short relief, bolstering a bullpen that has seen closer Edwin Diaz used heavily in recent days.
3. ALDS starts this weekend:
Along with the NLDS, the ALDS will also begin this weekend. Unlikely its National League counterpart, however, the American League will only see the first game of its series take place this weekend before a day off on Sunday. This year’s Division Series is flooded with AL Central teams, as the division champion Guardians will take on the Tigers after Detroit knocked the Astros out last round, ending their long streak of ALCS appearances. The Tigers haven’t announced a starter for tomorrow’s game, though whoever they choose will face Guardians righty Tanner Bibee (3.47 ERA). Meanwhile, the Royals managed to sweep the Orioles out of the Wild Card series and prevent a fourth intradivision LDS matchup. In Baltimore’s stead, Kansas City will now face the Yankees in the Bronx with veteran right-hander Michael Wacha (3.35 ERA) scheduled to face ace righty Gerrit Cole (3.41 ERA) in tomorrow’s game.