Central Notes: Tigers, Marmol, Ashby, Brewers
The hot corner was a clear problem area for the Tigers in 2023. The club’s third basemen slashed a collective .211/.294/.323 last season, good for a 72 wRC+ that was better than only that tied with the A’s for the second-worst offensive production from the position in the majors, beating out only the Mets. In terms of fWAR, Detroit’s third basemen combined for -1.0 fWAR, tied with the Angels for bottom three in the majors ahead of the aforementioned clubs. Despite that dire situation, however, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic suggests that the Tigers may be content to enter 2024 relying on their internal options at the position.
That strategy could be more sensible than it may seem. Top prospects Jace Jung and Colt Keith could both find themselves in the majors in 2024 after strong offensive seasons in 2023 that saw them each slug over .500 while reaching the Double- and Triple-A level, respectively, for the first time in their career. Until the club’s young infielders are ready for the show, Stavenhagen suggests that the Tigers figure to rely on Matt Vierling as their primary third baseman. Vierling slashed a respectable .261/.329/.388 across 134 games in 2023 while primarily playing the outfield, but Detroit’s acquisition of Mark Canha figures to allow Vierling more time on the infield dirt in 2024 after making 27 starts at the hot corner this past season.
One area the Tigers do hope to make an addition this offseason is the bullpen, where Stavenhagen notes the club hopes to add a left-handed reliever. The club already has southpaws Tyler Holton and Joey Wentz among their relief options for 2024, but Wentz struggled badly in 2023 with a 6.90 ERA in 105 2/3 innings of work across 25 appearances, 19 of which were starts. While Wentz posted a more respectable 4.26 ERA in 25 1/3 innings of work out of the bullpen last year, it’s easy to see why the club may want additional support from the left side headed into 2024. That’s particularly true after the club released Chasen Shreve back in August and lost Tyler Alexander on waivers to the Rays last month.
More from around MLB’s Central divisions…
- On the heels of a 91-loss season that saw his club finish dead last in the NL Central, Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol is entering the final year of his contract in St. Louis. According to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the sides have not discussed an extension at this point, leaving Marmol poised to enter the 2024 campaign as a lame duck. For his part, Marmol told Goold that he wasn’t concerned about the lack of security, “This industry is pretty simple,” Marmol said, “If you’re good, they keep you. If you’re not good, they don’t.” President of baseball operations John Mozeliak, meanwhile, expressed confidence in his manager entering the final year of his deal with the club, suggesting that he’s “very optimistic” that Marmol will be with the club “for a long time.”
- In conversation with reporters, including MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy, Brewers GM Matt Arnold suggested that the club views left-hander Aaron Ashby as a starting pitching option for the club in 2024. That said, Arnold was noncommittal about Ashby’s timeline for return to action following shoulder surgery, which he underwent back in April. Despite the uncertainty surrounding Ashby’s readiness for Opening Day next season, Arnold made clear that the young lefty will be “part of [the club’s] mix” when he is ready to return to action. Ashby signed a five-year extension with the Brewers partway through the 2022 season but has thrown just 31 1/3 innings for the club since then amid shoulder issues. When and if he’s healthy enough to return to the mound, Ashby figures to compete with the likes of Colin Rea and Adrian Houser for a spot in the club’s rotation alongside Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, and Wade Miley.
- Sticking with the Brewers, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel relayed yesterday that while Arnold did not rule out the possibility of top catching prospect Jeferson Quero making his big league debut at some point during 2024, the club nonetheless hopes to make an addition behind the plate to serve as the primary backup to William Contreras. Quero, 21, is the only other catcher on the club’s 40-man roster following the departure for Victor Caratini, who landed with the Astros on a two-year deal yesterday. Tom Murphy, Austin Hedges and Martin Maldonado are among the catchers still available on the open market this winter.
Latest On Brewers’ Corner Infield Plans
The Brewers had the worst offense of any playoff contender last year, with a 92 wRC+ that ranked seventh-worst among all major league clubs. Much of those offensive woes can be attributed to the club’s struggles to find quality offense at the infield corners. Milwaukee’s first basemen slashed a collective .237/.301/.381 in 2023, posting an 83 wRC+ that placed them in the bottom three among all clubs. They didn’t fare much better at the hot corner, where Brewers third basemen slashed .231/.315/.365 with a wRC+ of 87.
It’s worth noting that the majority of the players responsible for that production are no longer on the roster. Of the ten players to appear at first base for the Brewers in 2023, only Owen Miller remains with the organization. It’s a similar story at third base, where only Miller and Andruw Monasterio are still with Milwaukee among the seven players the club relied on at the hot corner in 2023. Both Miller and Monasterio have the look of solid, versatile bench pieces but appear miscast as regulars in the lineup with wRC+ marks of 81 and 88 respectively.
Given the club’s extreme lack of viable options at the infield corners, it’s hardly a surprise that Brewers GM Matt Arnold told reporters (including Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy) that the club views both first and third base as areas of the roster in need of an upgrade, even after acquiring Jake Bauers from the Yankees ahead of last month’s tender deadline. Arnold indicated that the club would have interest in a potential reunion with veteran first baseman Carlos Santana, who slashed a solid .249/.314/.459 in 226 plate appearances after being acquired by the club in a midseason trade with the Pirates over the summer.
The veteran switch-hitter will celebrate his 38th birthday shortly after Opening Day in 2024, but has been among the most consistent and disciplined hitters in the league throughout his tenure as a big leaguer. Throughout his 14 seasons in the majors, Santana has never posted a walk rate below 10.5% or a strikeout rate above 20.2% with near-equal career marks of 14.5% and 16.8%, respectively. That excellent discipline has come at the expense of power in recent years, as Santana posted a meager .148 ISO from 2020-22. 2023 represented something of a rebound on that front, however, as Santana slugged .429 while crushing 23 home runs, the fifth-highest total of his career.
Looking at options beyond Santana, Arnold suggesting that one solution for the infield corners could come internally in the form of Tyler Black. Milwaukee’s first-round pick in the 2021 draft and #4 prospect per MLB Pipeline, Black impressed at the plate in 2023 with a .287/.413/.513 slash line in 558 trips to the plate split between the Double- and Triple-A levels. Arnold heaped praise on the lefty slugger, telling reporters (as relayed by Rosiak) that Black is “just so talented and has a lot of upside,” while confirming that Black will have the chance to earn a spot on the big league roster this spring.
One candidate for time at first base the Brewers won’t be entertaining, according to Arnold, is Christian Yelich. The club’s $215MM man has scuffled a bit in recent years following his back-to-back MVP-caliber campaigns in 2018 and 2019 but bounced back somewhat this season, slashing a solid .278/.370/.447 with a wRC+ of 122 while swiping 28 bags in 31 attempts. Despite that solid offensive production, defensive metrics were mixed on Yelich’s performance with the glove in left field. While he accumulated a solid +4 OAA in 2023, DRS wasn’t so kind as only Bryan De La Cruz posted a lower figure than Yelich’s -3 while recording as many innings in the field.
Moving Yelich to first could improve the club’s defense while thinning a logjam in the outfield that includes Jackson Chourio, Garrett Mitchell, Joey Wiemer, Sal Frelick, Blake Perkins, and Tyrone Taylor in addition to Yelich. Such a shift is evidently not in the cards for Milwaukee, however, as Arnold suggested he “wouldn’t expect” to see Yelich at first base next year, leaving him to continue patrolling left field or spending time at DH. With the Brewers listening to offers on their glut of young outfielders, it’s possible the aforementioned group of seven outfielders could be winnowed down by a trade before Spring Training rolls around in February.
Alex Faedo To Have Fourth Option Year In 2024
Tigers right-hander Alex Faedo will have a fourth option year in 2024, according to MLive’s Evan Woodbery.
Typically, players have three option seasons with one used each season during which the player spends at least 20 days on optional assignment in the minor leagues. A player is considered to be on optional assignment when on a club’s 40-man roster but sent to the minor leagues while not on a rehab assignment. Faedo, 28, was first added to Detroit’s 40-man roster back in November of 2020 and has been optioned to the minor leagues in each of the three seasons since, spending at least 20 days in the minor leagues each time. Under normal circumstances, that would leave Faedo out of options headed into the 2024 season, meaning the Tigers would either have to expose Faedo to waivers before attempting to return him to the minor leagues.
Occasionally, teams are granted a fourth option year on certain players, typically due to the player missing significant time with injury. MLB.com explains that players with less than five full professional seasons (defined as at least 90 days on a major or minor league active roster) are eligible for a fourth option year. That applies to Faedo, who underwent Tommy John surgery in December of 2020 and missed the entire 2021 season while rehabbing. Between his lost 2021 campaign and the cancelled minor league season in 2020, Faedo has just four full professional seasons under his belt in 2018, 2019, 2022, and 2023.
The news offers the Tigers considerable roster flexibility headed into the 2024 season. The club’s first-round pick in the 2017 draft, Faedo had the look of a potential back-end starter in 2023 with a 4.45 ERA and 4.85 FIP across 64 2/3 innings of work in the majors split between the rotation and bullpen. Faedo’s work out of the bullpen late in the season was particularly impressive, as the righty posted a 1.04 ERA with a 34.4% strikeout rate in September after moving to shorter appearances, maxing out around 40 pitches. Given Faedo’s strong numbers out of the bullpen and presumed lack of minor league options, the righty seemed poised to enter the 2024 season as a member of Detroit’s Opening Day bullpen.
While that’s certainly still an option, it’s possible the Tigers could take the opportunity to allow Faedo to continue attempting to develop as a starting pitcher in the minor leagues to open the season. Of course, even if Faedo makes the club’s Opening Day roster in 2024, the right-hander’s option eligibility figures to allow Detroit additional flexibility as they look to maneuver their bullpen throughout the season, particularly given the fact that arms such as Joey Wentz and Miguel Diaz will be out of options in 2024, restricting the Tigers’ ability to move them off the active roster while retaining them as members of the organization.
Yankees Notes: Third Base, Kiner-Falefa, Peralta
After landing Alex Verdugo from their arch-rival Red Sox in a rare trade between the sides earlier this evening, the Yankees still figure to look for upgrades to a lineup that ranked 19th in the majors with a 94 wRC+ in 2023 despite another fantastic season from team captain Aaron Judge, who slashed .267/.406/.613 with 37 home runs in just 106 games this season. Those upgrades don’t appear likely to come in the form of an addition at third base, however, as GM Brian Cashman told reporters (including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch) earlier today that the club feels “covered” around the infield and does not consider third base to be an area of need this offseason.
While the Yankees figure to return Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres, and Anthony Volpe as established regulars at first base, second base, and shortstop respectively, the hot corner features a little more uncertainty next season. Yankees third basemen slashed a collective .225/.302/.361 this past season, good for an 85 wRC+ that ranked better than just eight teams in 2023. Veteran infielder DJ LeMahieu took most of the club’s reps at the hot corner last season with 67 starts, though each of Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Oswald Peraza and Oswaldo Cabrera also contributed as the Yankees mixed-and-matched at the position.
With Donaldson and Kiner-Falefa both having departed the organization, that would seemingly leave LeMahieu in line to receive the most reps at the position once again in 2024. The 35-year-old veteran just completed the third season of his six-year, $90MM contract with the Yankees. LeMahieu got roughly league average results (101 wRC+) at the plate in 2023 with a .243/.327/.390 slash line in 136 games. While LeMahieu’s 15 home runs tied his 2018 total with the Rockies for the second-highest of his career in a single season, the added power came at the cost of discipline. LeMahieu struck out at a career-high 22.2% clip this past season, well above both his career average of 15.2% and the 13.1% mark he posted in 2022.
Despite the additional whiffs as LeMahieu enters his mid-thirties, the veteran is likely still the club’s best option at the hot corner entering the year as both Cabrera and Peraza are coming off disastrous offensive seasons at the plate. While Peraza performed solidly at the Triple-A level with a 108 wRC+ in 300 plate appearances, the 23-year-old looked over-matched in the big leagues with a meager .191/.267/.272 slash line in a 52 games in the majors. Cabrera, meanwhile, appeared in 115 games for the Yankees as a utility player and struggled similarly across 330 big league plate appearances, slashing just .211/.275/.299 in that time.
Even as Cashman suggests the club is set at third with their internal options, Hoch reports that the club is at least considering adding one more bat to their infield mix: Kiner-Falefa. Jon Heyman of the New York Post echoes Hoch’s report of interest in bringing IKF back to the Bronx, but makes clear that the Yankees are far from alone in their interest in the utilityman; Heyman suggests that as many as 12 teams have interest in Kiner-Falefa’s services this offseason. The 28-year-old doesn’t contribute much at the plate, as he posted an 82 wRC+ in 2023 that nearly matches his career mark of 81, but he makes up for that lack of offensive ability with strong glovework all around the diamond.
Kiner-Falefa began his big league career as a backup catcher, though he hasn’t appeared behind the plate since the 2019 season. Since then, he’s proved to be an elite defensive infielder, winning a Gold Glove at third base in 2020 while offering strong defense at shortstop as well. IKF further expanded his defensive profile in 2023, appearing in 78 games on the outfield grass including 278 1/3 defensive innings of work in center field. While Kiner-Falefa’s strongest defensive marks come on the infield dirt, he posted a respectable +1 OAA and -1 DRS in center this season, potentially making him an attractive bench piece for teams in need of defensive versatility.
IKF isn’t the only outgoing free agent the Yankees reportedly have interest in retaining, as both Heyman and Hoch suggest the club has discussed a reunion with lefty reliever Wandy Peralta. Peralta, 32, has spent parts of eight seasons in the big leagues splitting time between three organizations but saw his career reach a new level since joining the Yankees partway through the 2021 season. Across 165 appearances in pinstripes, Peralta posted a 2.82 ERA that was 49% better than league average by measure of ERA+, though his 4.00 FIP leaves something to be desired. Advanced metrics are particularly critical of Peralta’s 2023 campaign. Despite a sterling 2.83 ERA in 54 innings, the southpaw posted a 5.05 FIP, 4.50 xFIP and 4.44 SIERA this past season.
Much of that disparity is thanks to a whopping 13.2% walk rate that was papered over in terms of Peralta’s raw run prevention numbers thanks to a microscopic .218 BABIP allowed and a career-high 85.2% strand rate. Despite those red flags, however, Peralta has gotten results in each of the past four seasons with a 3.01 ERA dating back to the start of the 2020 season. Much of that success has been thanks to Peralta’s excellence against left-handed hitters, to whom he’s surrendered a slash line of just .213/.308/.330 throughout his big league career. That’s surely a particularly attractive trait for the Yankees, who currently sport just two left-handed relief options on their 40-man roster in Nick Ramirez and Matt Krook.
Cubs Re-Sign Ethan Roberts To Minor League Deal
The Cubs have re-signed right-hander Ethan Roberts on a minor league deal, according to the transactions log on Roberts’s MLB.com player page. The deal presumably includes an invite to big league Spring Training.
Roberts, 26, missed the entire 2023 campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery in June of 2022. Chicago’s fourth-round pick from the 2018 draft made just nine appearances in the big leagues before going under the knife, struggling to an 8.22 ERA and 8.59 FIP during that time. The injury-plagued start to his big league career belies Roberts’ strong track record in the minor leagues. The 2019 campaign was Roberts’ first full professional season, and he impressed with a sparkling 2.59 ERA in 59 innings split between the Single-A and High-A levels. Roberts did not pitch in 2022 due to the cancelled minor league season, but returned to his prior dominance in 2021 as he posted a 3.00 ERA with a 32.6% strikeout rate in 54 innings of work split between the Double-A and Triple-A levels that season.
Strong as those minor league numbers were, Roberts’ non-existent big league track record and lengthy absence from the mound in recent years led the Cubs to non-tender him prior to last month’s tender deadline. Looking ahead to 2024, Roberts is expected to have a normal offseason this winter and be ready for camp come the spring, when the righty could look to compete for a spot in the club’s Opening Day bullpen. Adbert Alzolay, Julian Merryweather, and Mark Leiter Jr. all appear to be locks for Chicago’s relief corps next season after strong 2023 campaigns, leaving Roberts to join the likes of Keegan Thompson, Jose Cuas and Daniel Palencia in a battle for one of the club’s remaining bullpen spots.
Reds Have Discussed Dylan Cease Trade With White Sox
The Reds have engaged in conversations with the White Sox regarding right-hander Dylan Cease this offseason, per Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer. Cease, 28 this month, has been among the most discussed trade targets of the offseason to this point, with Chicago GM Chris Getz suggesting yesterday that there’s no club in the majors without at least some level of interest in the right-hander’s services. Wittenmyer goes on to caution that “nothing concrete” has developed from the discussions between the sides at this point.
The fit certainly makes sense for the Reds. The right-hander is coming off something of a down season in 2023 during which he posted a fairly pedestrian 4.58 ERA, though his 3.72 FIP, elevated .330 BABIP, and unusually low 69.4% strand rate all indicate there may have been some bad luck baked into those results. The idea that Cease may be closer to a front-of-the-rotation arm than his 2023 results indicate is backed up by his phenomenal 2022 campaign, during which he posted a sterling 2.20 ERA with a 3.10 FIP while striking out a whopping 30.4% of batters faced. Overall, Cease has pitched to a 3.54 ERA (121 ERA+) with a 3.40 FIP in 97 starts since the start of the 2021 season, striking out 29.8% of batters faced while walking 10.1% along the way.
That sort of playoff-caliber starter would provide a major boost to a Reds club that struggled to a rotation ERA of 5.43 this year, bottom three in the majors ahead of only Oakland and Colorado. The club’s situation isn’t quite as dire as that figure may make it seem; the club has an interesting group of young starters headlined by Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott that also includes the likes of Graham Ashcraft, Nick Lodolo, Brandon Williamson, and Connor Phillips. The club also recently landed right-hander Nick Martinez on a two-year deal last week, fortifying their rotation depth. That being said, the group offers little certainty aside from Greene, and the addition of a frontline starter such as Cease would take pressure off the club’s younger arms as they look to establish themselves as big league starters.
Cease is far from the only arm the club has looked into who could fill this role. Cincinnati has reportedly discussed a deal for right-hander Shane Bieber with the Guardians while also showing interest in Rays righty Tyler Glasnow. While Cease figures to cost more in terms of prospect capital more than either of those two alternatives, he’s the only one of the trio controllable beyond the 2024 campaign. He also figures to be the cheapest to acquire from a financial perspective, as Cease is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to received just $8.8MM in his penultimate trip through arbitration. By contrast, Bieber is projected for a $12.2MM salary in 2024 while Glasnow’s salary for next season is locked in at $25MM.
The Reds are far from the only team engaged on Cease. While Getz’s remark that all 29 other clubs have interest in Cease’s services is surely at least somewhat hyperbolic, the right-hander has garnered plenty of interest this winter with the Dodgers, Cardinals, Mets, Orioles, and Red Sox among the clubs to show interest in the hurler so far this offseason. The Braves have also been connected to Cease frequently over the past several weeks, though more recent reports have downplayed the club’s interest. Even so, the market for Cease is clearly robust, and there have been indications that a deal for the righty may not come together until the top of the rotation market- which includes the likes of Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell– has been sorted out.
Cease is not the only player Wittenmyer suggests the Reds have interest in, as he also connects the club to infielder Jeimer Candelario. That the Reds have interest in Candelario’s services is nothing new, as the sides were linked last month at the outset of free agency. At the time, it seemed likely that the club’s interest in Candelario may have been predicated on a trade from the club’s glut of infielders that already includes Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marte, Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Jonathan India, and Spencer Steer. While such a deal has not yet materialized, it seems possible the club’s plans may not be so simple. While not discussing the switch-hitting Candelario specifically, Krall told reporters (as relayed by Wittenmyer) recently that the club “could add a switch-hitter that plays the infield” to their positional mix, with such a move allowing the Reds to “push Steer to the outfield more” often.
Candelario, 30, would add some balance to the club’s righty-dominated infield mix. Only De La Cruz (a fellow switch-hitter) ever bats from the left side among Cincinnati’s bevy of young infielders, though lefties TJ Friedl and Jake Fraley both help to balance the overall lineup somewhat as members of the club’s outfield mix. Candelario, who hit .251/.336/.471 overall last season with the Nationals and Cubs, could be in line of a three- or four-year deal this offseason according to Wittenmyer. That’s in line with MLBTR’s prediction of a four-year, $70MM deal that earned Candelario the #13 spot on our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list.
The Angels, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays and Nationals are among the other clubs Candelario has been connected to this offseason, though it’s worth noting that Arizona subsequently landed Eugenio Suarez in a trade with the Mariners, likely taking them out of the sweepstakes for the third baseman. Despite that interest, Wittenmyer suggests that Candelario’s market, like that of many upper-level positional free agents, has been held up by the bidding on two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani. Ohtani has commanded the attention of big-market clubs such as the Jays, Angels, Dodgers, Cubs and Giants to this point in the offseason, and as such it’s hardly a surprise that the league’s other top free agent hitters prefer to wait out Ohtani’s free agency in case one of those teams looks to pivot after missing out on the superstar.
Astros, Rangers, Red Sox, Angels Among Teams Interested In Jordan Hicks
December 5: The Angels and Red Sox have also checked in on Hicks, per Ari Alexander of KPRC 2. Both clubs could use some bullpen reinforcements, with Boston relievers having posted a collective 4.32 ERA in 2023 while the Angels were at 4.88.
December 4: The Astros, Rangers, Cardinals and Orioles are among the teams with interest in right-hander Jordan Hicks this offseason, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Cardinals and Orioles having interest is no surprise since they had previously been linked to the 27-year-old earlier in the offseason. The connections to the Rangers and Astros, however, are new.
The Rangers make plenty of sense as a potential fit for Hicks. The reigning World Series champions got excellent results out of their offense and starting pitching in 2023, but faced significant struggles in the bullpen. The club’s relief corps combined for a 4.77 ERA that was bottom-seven in the majors, while the group’s 4.45 FIP and 2.6 fWAR were also bottom-ten figures. The Twins, Diamondbacks, and Marlins were the only other playoff teams to feature a bottom-ten bullpen in even one of those three categories, and no club besides the Rangers appeared in the bottom of those leaderboards more than once.
That acute need for bullpen additions has led the Rangers to be frequently connected to top-of-the-market closer Josh Hader, who posted a sensational season in 2023 with a 1.28 ERA and a 36.8% strikeout rate while picking up 33 saves in 56 1/3 innings of work with the Padres. That being said, Hader has a chance to land a record-breaking contract in free agency this offseason, with MLBTR projecting the lefty for a six-year, $110MM contract on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, on which he ranks eighth overall. Coming off a World Series championship in 2023 and a pair of offseasons where they were among the league’s biggest spenders, it’s possible that sort of contract won’t be a problem for Texas.
That being said, GM Chris Young recently cautioned that the club doesn’t expect to spend quite as lavishly this offseason as they have the past two winters. If the Rangers do find that Hader is out of their price range, Hicks could represent a more affordable alternative who has still flashed elite upside as a late-inning arm. Hicks, who was the second-highest rated reliever (#21 overall) on MLBTR’s list with a projected price tag of four years and $40MM, boasts a triple-digit fastball with sinking action that allows him to post groundball rates near 60% on a yearly basis.
While control and injury issues have dogged Hicks throughout his career, the righty is still three seasons away from his 30th birthday and impressed this season with a career-high 28.4% strikeout rate. While his 3.29 ERA hardly jumps off the page for a back-end relief arm, it’s worth noting that Hicks’ season numbers are skewed by a brutal early-season performance where he surrendered nine runs (eight earned) in just 5 2/3 innings across seven appearances. After that point, Hicks boasted a sterling 2.40 ERA and 2.59 FIP with a 30% strikeout rate against a 9.6% walk rate in his final 60 innings of work. While its not reasonable to simply ignore a rocky start to the season entirely, Hicks’s strong performance after the first two weeks of his season does highlight the tantalizing upside the right-hander has flashed throughout his career.
The Astros, on the other hand, are a somewhat less obvious suitor. Veteran righty Ryan Pressly is entrenched as the club’s closer, while young hurler Bryan Abreu has emerged as one of the best young relief arms in the league with a 1.84 ERA and 2.59 FIP across the past two seasons. That duo led the Astros’ relief corps to a sterling 3.56 ERA in 2023, the sixth-best figure in the league. Houston’s bullpen sports similarly strong advanced metrics, as only six clubs posted a better collective SIERA than the Astros’ 3.79 figure.
Good as the club’s relief corps was in 2023, however, it’s important to note that the Astros have since lost key pieces such as Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek, and Phil Maton to free agency. While Pressly and Abreu certainly make for a strong back-end duo, Houston looking to replace those outgoing arms is hardly a surprise, and few options available figure to be better than Hicks. While the Astros clearly need additional relief arms to supplement the roster, it’s fair to wonder if Hicks is the most realistic target for the club from a financial perspective. GM Dana Brown cautioned earlier in the offseason that the club doesn’t have “a ton” of financial flexibility to work with this winter while telling reporters he’s “not interested in overpaying” for bullpen arms.
Given the club’s limited financial flexibility, it would register as something of a surprise for the Astros to commit a hefty sum to a single reliever given their other needs. The Astros are known to be in the market for a backup catcher in addition to bullpen, to say nothing of the possibility they look to add a left-handed bat to replace Michael Brantley or shore up a starting rotation lacking in certainty behind Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez. While it’s impossible to deny that the addition of Hicks to a bullpen that already features Abreu and Pressly could create a three-headed monster that few teams could replicate, it’s fair as a wonder if a cheaper option could be more feasible for Houston from a financial perspective. One such option could be a reunion with Hector Neris, who The Athletic’s Chandler Rome relayed this evening Brown has been in contact with. MLBTR ranked Neris, who posted a 1.71 ERA and 3.83 FIP in 68 1/3 innings for the Astros last year, as the offseason’s #46 free agent while projecting him for a two-year, $15MM deal.
Guardians Expected To Keep 2024 Payroll At 2023 Levels
The Guardians have long run a payroll at or near the bottom of the league, with a payroll in the bottom third of the league in each of the last four seasons and eleven of the last fourteen years per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. 2023 was no exception to that, as the club’s payroll sat at just $89MM, the sixth-lowest figure in the majors. Zack Meisel of The Athletic reports that the austerity of recent seasons isn’t expected to change in 2024, as the club expects to run a payroll at a similar level next season.
RosterResource projects the Guardians for a $94MM payroll in 2024 as things stand, meaning that Cleveland essentially has no room for further additions without cutting costs elsewhere on the roster. As Meisel notes, further additions are all but necessary in the outfield if the Guardians hope to compete in 2024 following a 76-86 performance that saw them finish ahead of only the lowly White Sox and Royals in the notoriously weak AL Central. Those struggles can primarily be traced back to the club’s woeful offense, which produced a wRC+ of just 92 in 2024, MLB’s ninth-worst figure. Those offensive struggles, in turn, connect back to a disastrous outfield situation; Cleveland’s outfielders slashed just .253/.312/.344 in 2023, with a 84 wRC+ that narrowly avoids being the worst in the majors thanks to Kansas City’s figure of 82.
With no payroll space remaining and a projected outfield of Steven Kwan, Myles Straw, and Ramon Laureano headed into 2024, Meisel suggests that Cleveland brass may have their hand forced into freeing up payroll space with a trade of longtime ace Shane Bieber or even shopping closer Emmanuel Clase, whose $20MM extension prior to the 2022 season has become one of the league’s best values thanks to back-to-back All Star campaigns the past two seasons. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects Bieber for a $12.2MM salary in his final trip through arbitration this offseason, while Clase is slated to earn $2.9MM in 2024.
Trading Clase, Meisel notes, would require the Guardians to be “overwhelmed” by an offer for the 25-year-old. That’s hardly a surprise, given the five seasons of affordable club control remaining on the closer’s contract and his resume over the past three seasons, which includes a sterling 1.97 ERA and 110 saves in 131 chances. That being said, it’s worth noting that the Guardians swung a deal earlier this offseason to acquire Scott Barlow from the Padres. Though Barlow is coming off a down year split between the Royals and Padres in 2023, the righty was among the better closers in the game for the Royals in 2021 and 2022, with a 2.30 ERA and 3.13 FIP. Speculatively speaking, the addition of Barlow could make the Guardians more amenable to dealing Clase, as they would have a clear internal option for the ninth inning with closing experience lined up to take over for him headed into next season.
Bieber, on the other hand, would not be as difficult to pry away, as Meisel suggests that Bieber’s trade value has depreciated in recent years and the Guardians would be “selling low” on Bieber in any trade. From 2019-22, Bieber was among the league’s most effective starters with a 2.91 ERA and 2.95 ERA across 588 1/3 innings of work. Things took a turn for the worse this year, however, as the 28-year-old made just 21 starts due to struggles with elbow inflammation that left him shut down for much of the summer. What’s more, Bieber’s results were diminished when he was able to take the field: his 3.80 ERA and 3.86 FIP, while still above average, were pedestrian by his standards and he posted a career-worst 20.1% strikeout rate. Those potential red flags haven’t stopped teams from showing interest in Bieber’s services, as at least the Cubs and Reds have both inquired after the right-hander this winter.
That said, with arms such as Dylan Cease, Tyler Glasnow, and Corbin Burnes rumored to be available this offseason, it’s easy to see why Bieber may be a less appealing trade target than the aforementioned names. A strong start to the season from Bieber could substantially improve his stock on the trade market, meaning it could make plenty of sense for the Guardians to hold onto the righty entering the season before re-evaluating at the deadline. Such a plan, however, would likely require the club to get creative in their search for outfield solutions. While the club has a surplus of young infield options, Meisel suggests that the club is reluctant to thin out its depth in that area of the roster.
Meisel does note one potential ray of hope for the Guardians regarding their payroll situation: their broadcasting revenue situation. The Guardians are one of many teams thrust into an uncertain revenue situation by the bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group, and a report last month indicated the Diamond could drop the Guardians from their broadcasting deal headed into 2024. While that could leave the club without as much as $60MM in broadcast revenue next season, Meisel also notes that the club could find itself with enough additional room in its baseball operations budget to make some minor upgrades to the roster without cutting additional salary as they “gain additional clarity” on their broadcasting situation.
Cubs Reportedly Interested In Matt Chapman
Much of the rumor mill this offseason regarding the Cubs has been tied to the top two positional free agents on the market- two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani and center fielder Cody Bellinger, the latter of whom re-established himself as a star-level player this season after signing with Chicago on a one-year deal last offseason. Per Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the club’s interest in top of the positional free agent market extends beyond those two names, as Chicago is “looking at” third baseman Matt Chapman. Heyman goes on to note that the Cubs are waiting on a decision from Ohtani before engaging with Bellinger and Chapman more substantially.
That the Cubs would have interest in Chapman’s services is hardly a surprise. While the club has a strong middle infield duo of Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner providing solid offense paired with elite defense, the club’s production at the corner infield spots was far less impressive in 2023. The club’s 103 wRC+ at first base, which is somewhat inflated by the 59 appearances Bellinger made at the position, ranked just 17th in the majors. The hot corner was even more dire, as Chicago’s mix of third basemen including Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, and Miles Mastrobuoni combined for a wRC+ of just 92 with just 1.8 fWAR. The latter figure was the eleventh-worst production from third base among all major league clubs last season, despite a late-season boost from deadline addition Jeimer Candelario.
Meanwhile, Chapman is among the league’s premiere third basemen. Only Austin Riley, Jose Ramirez, Gunnar Henderson, and Isaac Paredes posted more fWAR than Chapman’s 3.5 last season among regulars at the hot corner, while only ten third baseman posted a wRC+ better than Chapman’s figure of 110. In addition to improving Chicago’s dismal production at third base, Chapman would provide the club with a much-needed boost in power. While the Cubs’ offense scored the sixth-most runs in the majors last year, they ranked 12th in the majors with a collective wRC+ of just 104 thanks in large part to middling power production, as evidenced by their roughly average ISO (.167) and home run total (196).
That’s not to say Chapman comes without red flags, of course. While the 30-year-old has long been a reliable source of 25-to-30 home runs per season, he suffered something of a power outage in 2023 with just 17 home runs in 581 plate appearances. While his underlying metrics (including a 17.1% barrel rate and a career-best 56.1% Hard-Hit rate) suggest that lack of power production may not have been deserved, it’s still a somewhat worrying sign for a slugger on the wrong side of 30 who regularly posts strikeout rates that approach 30%. Despite those concerns, MLBTR projected Chapman for a six-year, $150MM deal this offseason while ranking him as the winter’s third-best positional free agent and seventh overall on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list. Much of that value comes from the slugger’s glove.
Though he hasn’t posted the elite OAA numbers in recent years that he did earlier in his career, Chapman is still on the shortlist of best defensive third baseman in the game; his +5 OAA in 2023 ranked in the 87th percentile, while his +12 DRS leaves him as the 12th most valuable infielder with the glove in baseball last year. Even if his offense is closer to the 110 wRC+ range than his career mark of 118 or the 130 wRC+ he posted during his peak years of 2018-20, pairing Chapman with Swanson and Hoerner on the infield dirt would put the Cubs in the conversation for the best infield defense in the sport.
Just as the Cubs are looking into other options besides Chapman as they look to add an impact bat in free agency, so too does Chapman have other suitors beyond Chicago. Both the Giants and the incumbent Blue Jays have also been connected to the infield so far this offseason, with Toronto having reportedly offered Chapman an extension north of $100MM in the four-to-five year range before he even hit the open market. An interesting wrinkle in the Chapman sweepstakes is that each of the aforementioned teams he’s been connected to so far this winter are also rumored to be among the remaining suitors for Ohtani.
Though it’s at least feasible that a club could look to sign Chapman this winter even after landing Ohtani, it’s impossible to predict what sort of payroll space any team would have remaining after committing $500MM or more to the offseason’s top free agent. Given that uncertainty and the position of Chapman’s publicly-known suitors as potential players in the Ohtani sweepstakes, it would be a surprise if a signing was imminent for the offseason’s top infielder.
Latest On Braves’ Offseason Plans
A potential trade of White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease has been among the most prominent storylines of the offseason to this point, as White Sox GM Chris Getz has made clear that his club is operating with no untouchables as they look to retool after a 101-loss season. One of the teams most frequently connected to Cease is the Braves, who have a clear need in their rotation after losing Kyle Wright to shoulder surgery and subsequently dealing him to the Royals earlier this offseason.
MLB.com’s Mark Bowman pushed back against reports of Atlanta’s involvement in the Cease sweepstakes today, however, even as speculation regarding the right-hander has begun to intensify alongside the start of the Winter Meetings. Bowman acknowledges that the 27-year-old hurler was on the club’s radar earlier in the offseason but indicates that there isn’t “currently a fit” between the sides while suggesting that Atlanta’s level of interest and involvement in trade talks with Chicago has been “overblown.”
Bowman’s report also indicates that the Braves haven’t shown “serious interest” in two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani this offseason. While the Braves are not among the teams that have been most frequently connected to Ohtani’s market this offseason, Bowman’s characterization is a significant departure from a report earlier today from Jon Morosi of MLB Network, who suggested that the Braves not only have shown interest in Ohtani but are one of the teams still “actively involved” in the negotiation process.
While Bowman downplays the club’s interest in making a headline-grabbing move for Cease or Ohtani, he nonetheless suggests that the Braves are “not done” following last night’s move to acquire Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales and Evan White from the Mariners, leaving the door open to the possibility the Braves make “at least one more big move.” Such a deal could even come in the form of a trade for a front-line starter, with Bowman suggesting Corbin Burnes and Tyler Glasnow as possible alternatives to Cease on the trade market.
Of course, it’s worth noting that the club is in uncharted territory in terms of payroll. After posting a franchise record payroll of $205MM in 2023 (per RosterResource), the Braves are currently projected for an Opening Day payroll of $220MM in 2024, with a luxury tax figure of just over $256MM. That puts them right up against the second tax threshold of $257MM, meaning that the club would surely need to shed payroll before making further moves if they hope to avoid that second threshold. Bowman echoes reporting from earlier today that suggested the Braves will attempt to flip Gonzales, who is owed $12.25MM in 2024, before the offseason comes to a close. In addition to the possibility of flipping Gonzales, Bowman suggests the club could look to “sell high” on either DH Marcell Ozuna or closer Raisel Iglesias in deals that would simultaneously shed salary while potentially bringing in additional talent.
Ozuna is owed $18MM in 2024, the final guaranteed year of his contract that also includes a $16MM club option with a $1MM buyout for 2025. The 33-year-old slugger is coming off a strong season at the plate during which he slashed .274/.346/.558 while crushing 40 home runs, 29 doubles, and a triple. While he’s largely limited to DH at this point in his career, he’d surely draw interest on the trade market from clubs looking to upgrade their lineup; just six hitters reached the 40-homer plateau in 2023, and just four posted a higher ISO than Ozuna’s .285 figure.
Iglesias, meanwhile, posted a 2.75 ERA and 3.26 FIP while collecting 33 saves for the Braves across 55 2/3 innings of work. It’s the fourth-consecutive season in which Iglesias has posted an ERA below 3.o0 as the 33-year-old has emerged as one of the most reliable closers in the league in recent years. Excellent as Iglesias has been, he’s guaranteed a $16MM salary in each of the next two seasons. That’s a hefty sum to pay for a reliever even with Iglesias’s pedigree. Bowman also points out the club has plenty of established back-end relief options who could anchor the bullpen if Iglesias were to be moved including left-hander A.J. Minter and offseason addition Reynaldo Lopez, though it’s worth noting the club currently plans to stretch the righty out as a potential starting option for 2024.