Red Sox Have Discussed Extensions With Sale, Bogaerts
1:17pm: Werner and principal owner John Henry met with the Boston media today and indicated that they’ve not only discussed a long-term deal with Sale but also with Xander Bogaerts (link via the Globe’s Peter Abraham). Like Sale, Bogaerts is slated to become a free agent at the end of the 2019 season. The ownership reps noted that while they’d love to be able to keep each of Sale, Bogaerts and Mookie Betts in Red Sox uniform for the long haul, such a scenario probably isn’t realistic.
Perhaps of note, when asked about the last top-tier lefty the Sox had on the cusp of free agency, Henry candidly acknowledged that the Red Sox “blew it” when trying to work out an extension with Jon Lester prior to 2014 — Lester’s last in Boston.
8:38am: The Red Sox and ace Chris Sale have had “private” discussions about a contract extension, chairman Tom Werner said in an appearance on WEEI’s Mut & Callahan show this morning (Twitter link, with audio). Sale is currently slated to earn $15MM in 2019 and will become a free agent next offseason. He said last week that the Red Sox had not yet initiated extension negotiations.
Clearly, whether it’s in the form of an extension or in an open-market setting, Sale is in position to command a substantial raise — likely one that would at least double his salary. The seven-time All-Star, who will turn 30 years old in March, has finished in the top five in American League Cy Young voting in each of the past six seasons and has never turned in an ERA higher than 2015’s mark of 3.41. It’s somewhat surprising that Sale has never actually taken home the Cy Young hardware, though his excellence and consistency still make him a solid bet to do so at some point in his career; Sale’s 10.88 K/9 and 5.31 K/BB ratio are both the best all-time marks for any pitcher to ever have thrown 1000 MLB innings.
A new contract for Sale would begin in his age-31 season, so the length of the pact could be a potential sticking point in talks. Teams throughout the league have shown increasing resistance to guaranteeing money to players into their late 30s, and it’s been fairly rare to see five-, six- and seven-year deals that guarantee pitchers into their age-37 seasons. That said, assuming a healthy year from Sale, he could have a case to to top Zack Greinke‘s current $34.4MM annual salary record. While he hasn’t previously called that a goal, Sale did recently express the importance of furthering the market for future players.
“You want to do right by the guys who are coming next year, two years, 10 years down the road because you kind of set the bar and the next guy who comes along either gets to that bar or sets it a little more,” Sale said in his own appearance on Mut & Callahan last week. “That’s kind of the brotherhood of being a Major League Baseball player.”
A healthy 2019 season will be of particular importance for Sale in 2019. While he’s long been a consistent force in the rotation with both the White Sox and Red Sox, he was limited to 27 starts last year — his fewest since 2015 — and went through a pair of stints on the disabled list as a result of inflammation in his left shoulder. Sale certainly looked healthy when striking out the side to close out Boston’s World Series win over the Dodgers. though, and he’s now had the benefit of a full offseason to rest that mildly problematic shoulder.
It’s worth noting that an extension for Sale would push the Red Sox into the top luxury tax penalization bracket. As I explored recently when looking at what it’d actually cost the Sox to re-sign Craig Kimbrel — the taxes on any such signing could top $10MM — Boston is only about $6MM south of that $246MM barrier. Viewed through that lens, the Sox may actually prefer to wait until the end of the season, although in doing so they’d also be running the risk of allowing Sale to test the open market.
Quick Hits: Owens, Stroman, Wright, Beckham, Rookie
Athletics assistant GM/director of player personnel Billy Owens has been rumored as “a strong candidate” to become the next Giants general manager, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. Farhan Zaidi, the Giants’ newly-hired president of baseball operations, knows Owens well from their time together in Oakland’s front office, and Zaidi is one of several voices in Slusser’s piece who praise Owens’ ability to scout and identify talent (not to mention describe that talent in legendarily elaborate scouting reports). If there is one flaw in Owens’ resume, it could be his love of scouting prevents him from amassing the type of executive experience necessary to run a front office. That said, Owens has been sought after by other organizations, and he interviewed for the Phillies’ GM job in 2015, leading to speculation that he could eventually leave Oakland for a higher-profile job — perhaps even reuniting with Zaidi in the Bay Area.
Here’s more from around the baseball world…
- Marcus Stroman‘s blunt comments about the Blue Jays‘ offseason seem to hint at an eventual parting of the ways between the team and the right-hander, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi opines. Stroman’s frankness probably didn’t help his chances at either a contract extension or a trade, though if he has a good first half and erases any question marks lingering from his mediocre 2018 season, Stroman will surely become an intriguing trade chip for the Jays at the deadline.
- The Red Sox plan to use Steven Wright as a full-time reliever this season, MLB.com’s Ian Browne writes, with manager Alex Cora casting Wright as a potential multi-inning threat. At first glance, a knuckleballer would seem like an unusually durable option to relegate to the bullpen, though Wright is just happy to be pitching in any capacity after two injury-plagued seasons. There is also the possibility for higher-profile assignments within Boston’s pen, given the team’s lack of an established closer.
- Gordon Beckham chose to sign the Tigers over some offers from other teams because they offered the best shot at regular Major League at-bats, the veteran infielder told Chris McCosky of the Detroit News and other reporters. The idea of more time in the minors isn’t appealing to Beckham, to the point that “if it doesn’t work out here, I might be done” with his ten-year MLB career, though he also noted that better health and a revamped swing have him feeling optimistic about the coming season.
- Right-hander Rookie Davis is close to a new minor league contract and Spring Training invite with an unknown team, The Athletic’s Emily Waldon reports (Twitter link), adding that the Pirates have been in touch with Davis. Perhaps best known as one of the prospects sent by the Yankees to the Reds as part of the Aroldis Chapman trade in December 2015, Davis tossed 27 innings for Cincinnati in 2017 and then underwent hip surgery that October. He pitched only 26 1/3 innings in the Reds’ farm system last season and became a free agent in November.
East Notes: Stroman, Phils, Moustakas, BoSox, JDM, Mets, Alonso
Right-hander Marcus Stroman expressed frustration toward the Blue Jays on Sunday for not offering him a contract extension during the offseason. However, Stroman’s claim was refuted by an industry source, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reports. Whether or not the team did submit an offer(s), no deal has come to fruition, leaving Stroman in his penultimate year of club control. While Stroman generally thrived in Toronto from 2014-17, last season was a different story as the 27-year-old battled injuries and a downturn in production. This offseason may not have been the ideal for Stroman to ink an extension, then, though he insisted Sunday he “embodies the city of Toronto” more than anyone and wants to be there “for a long time.”
Here’s more on the game’s East divisions:
- Philadelphia has been chasing free agent Manny Machado for months, but if the team doesn’t sign him, it appears it’ll go forward with Maikel Franco and Scott Kingery at third base. The Phillies “seem cool” on the possibility of signing Mike Moustakas or another non-Machado free agent to man the position, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com writes. The club’s of the belief that Franco and Kingery are “two really good options,” according to general manager Matt Klentak. The 26-year-old Franco wasn’t much different offensively than Moustakas in 2018, though the latter trumped the former as a defender. Kingery had a disastrous rookie season at the plate, but the Phillies remain high on the 24-year-old, whom they signed to a long-term deal last March before he ever accrued a major league at-bat.
- Red Sox designated hitter J.D. Martinez is only a year removed from a protracted trip to free agency – one that culminated in late February with a five-year, $110MM guarantee. While the open market has frustrated many players over the past 16 months, Martinez may head back to free agency as early as next winter if he opts out of his contract after the season. The 31-year-old said Sunday that the cases of still-unemployed superstars Machado and Bryce Harper won’t play much of a role in his forthcoming decision, per Christopher Smith of MassLive.com. “At the end of the day, I know my value and I know what I bring to the table,” said Martinez – who, like Harper, is a Scott Boras client. “I really don’t look at that. I really judge me on me.” Regardless of whether Martinez does vacate his current contract next offseason, the offensive dynamo noted he’d “love” to continue his career in Boston, which he helped lead to a World Series title in 2018.
- First baseman Peter Alonso, MLB.com‘s 51st-ranked prospect, may be able to help the Mets as early as Opening Day, though whether he’ll make the team’s roster is in question. The Mets would gain an extra year of control over Alonso, 24, by keeping him in the minors until at least mid-April, after all. However, New York – led by general manager Brodie Van Wagenen – insists having seven years of control over Alonso instead of six won’t factor into whether he cracks its season-opening roster in 2019, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com relays. “Our management’s going to fight for [Alonso],” said manager Mickey Callaway. “I think Brodie’s made it clear that he’s a players’ guy. And if he deserves it, he’s going to be on the team.” The main player standing in Alonso’s way appears to be Todd Frazier – the Mets’ projected starter at first – but the 33-year-old is coming off a poor year. Alonso, on the other hand, was highly productive in Double-A and Triple-A stints last season.
East Notes: Yankees, Phils, Herrera, Red Sox, Blue Jays
The Yankees signed right-hander Luis Severino to a four-year, $40MM extension shortly before they were scheduled to face off against him in arbitration Friday. General manager Brian Cashman spoke about the buzzer-beating agreement Saturday, saying (via George A. King III of the New York Post): “We circled back 30 minutes before the hearing and I asked [agent Nelson Montes de Oca] if he wanted to circle back to my room again. The atmosphere was better, different. We both said we would rather not walk into this hearing and do what we have to do. We gave a little, they gave a little. The Severino extension may not be the last one the Yankees dole out before the season, as Cashman revealed that the club has “had conversations with some” unidentified players regarding new deals. Speculatively, center fielder Aaron Hicks, shortstop Didi Gregorius and reliever Dellin Betances – integral Yankees slated to reach free agency next winter – look like logical candidates.
Here’s the latest on a few other East Coast franchises:
- Manager Gabe Kapler claims the Phillies aren’t guaranteeing a No. 1 job to center fielder Odubel Herrera, Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. Herrera’s a four-year starter in Philly who still has three guaranteed seasons left on the $30.5MM extension he signed in 2016, but he turned in an underwhelming showing in 2018. He’ll now compete for a place in center and right this spring with Roman Quinn, Nick Williams and Aaron Altherr, according to Kapler. Although, if the Phillies add superstar right fielder Bryce Harper in free agency, it’ll give the Herrera-Quinn-Williams-Altherr quartet one fewer position to fight over. Herrera, for his part, has worked hard in recent months to get himself into better shape, as Lauber details, and Kapler expects the 27-year-old to benefit from the Phillies’ hiring of first base/outfield/baserunning coach Paco Figueroa.
- The Red Sox are expected to trade a catcher – be it Christian Vazquez, Sandy Leon or Blake Swihart – before the season. If that happens, they’ll likely be left with minor league signing Juan Centeno as their No. 3 backstop. Manager Alex Cora said Saturday he’d be “comfortable” in that scenario, pointing out he’s familiar with the veteran Centeno from their time with the World Series-winning Houston organization in 2017, per Christopher Smith of MassLive.com. Centeno’s contract does not include an opt-out clause, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski confirmed to Smith, so the Red Sox aren’t in danger of losing him before the season. However, as Smith notes, if Boston adds Centeno to its 40-man roster at some point and then tries to send him to the minors, it’ll need to pass him through waivers because he’s out of options.
- Left-hander Ryan Borucki was one of the few bright spots on the Blue Jays’ pitching staff in 2018, a rookie year in which he turned in a 3.87 ERA/3.80 FIP over 97 2/3 innings and 17 starts. Nevertheless, while it appears the Jays are guaranteeing starting spots to Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez and newcomers Matt Shoemaker and Clayton Richard heading into the season, general manager Ross Atkins indicated this week that Borucki will have to battle for a role in their rotation this spring, Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com relays. The soon-to-be 25-year-old Borucki still looks to be the front-runner for the Jays’ No. 5 spot, though, as he’s clearly the most proven 40-man option left on their staff.
AL Notes: Vlad Jr., Bogaerts, Twins, Castellanos
It has long seemed obvious that the Blue Jays would prefer to hold top prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at Triple-A to open the 2019 season. After all, the team decided not to call him up late last season and can push back his potential free agency by one season if they keep him down for at least a brief stretch to begin the new campaign. GM Ross Atkins declined yesterday to provide any kind of hint as to the anticipated timing, as Keegan Matheson of the Score tweets, though he did so in a manner that seemingly suggests the club is indeed preparing to hold off on a call-up. “There’s no firm timeline on when [Guerrero] arrives or when he is playing in Toronto for the first time,” said Atkins, “but we want to make sure he’s the best possible third baseman and the best possible hitter he can be.”
Let’s take a look at some other notes from the American League …
- The Red Sox and shortstop Xander Bogaerts reportedly failed to gain traction in extension talks earlier this winter. Perhaps it’s still possible, though, that the pending free agent could line up with the organization on a new deal. As John Tomase of WEEI.com writes, Bogaerts acknowledged that the slow-developing free agent market provides cause for him to consider extension scenarios — “you obviously have to think about that,” he said — though he also did not exactly hint that he’s particularly inclined to forego the risks and upside of the open market. The 26-year-old called this winter’s market developments “weird.” As for the possibility of a future in Boston, he ultimately would say only that he likes playing with the team and that “we’ll see what happens.”
- While the Twins have looked into extensions with multiple young players, and recently locked up both Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco, all is quiet on that front at this point, per LaVelle E. Neal III off the Star Tribune (via Twitter). Players such as outfielder Eddie Rosario and righty Jose Berrios would seem to represent highly appealing targets, though both also have added leverage due to their strong 2018 seasons.
- The Tigers, meanwhile, do not appear to have anything in the works with outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, who seems to be more of a mid-season trade candidate than extension candidate. Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press writes that skipper Ron Gardenhire would prefer Castellanos stick around. He just might get his wish, at least for the first half of the season, as it still seems there’s insufficient market interest in the defensively challenged slugger to pique the Detroit organization’s interest.
AL Notes: Harper, Betts, Severino, Baldelli, Harvey, Kennedy
It’s mostly of historical interest now, but Astros GM Jeff Luhnow acknowledged that the club had a deal all but locked down to land Bryce Harper last summer. (Via Mark Berman of FOX 26, on Twitter.) Reports indicated that the Nationals would have received a strong haul of talent had they agreed to give up Harper at the non-waiver deadline; instead, the club announced on deadline day that it would not part with its star, who is now (still) a free agent. Lest anyone get the wrong idea, the Houston organization’s prior interest certainly doesn’t indicate that Harper is of interest presently. There has been no such connection this winter. Luhnow did suggest, though, that the pursuit is evidence of the team’s commitment to “look at all alternatives” and possibly swing major deals at the trade deadline.
Those who enjoy concocting wild trade scenarios will also take note of Luhnow’s intriguing aside: “I think fans would be surprised at the types of players at times that we’ve gone after and how close we’ve come on some of them.” Here’s more from the American League:
- Star Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts discussed his approach to handling the business side of the sport, as Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald reports. Betts says he believes in staying patient. “When you start rushing into things, that’s when you get some deals that may not be the right ones,” he said. Of course, Betts has to this point set himself up for a potentially record-setting run through arbitration by not only going year-to-year, but by also increasing his performance level in successive seasons. He just settled for a whopping $20MM, setting a record for a second-time arb-eligible player. Whether he’ll consider a long-term deal in the future isn’t clear; Betts would allow only that he enjoys playing in Boston and would “have to see how it goes.”
- In other AL East contractual matters, the Yankees‘ reported chatter about a long-term deal with staff ace Luis Severino does not seem to be gaining traction, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). It seems that the sides will instead focus on preparing for an upcoming arbitration hearing, though that can always change at the last minute — whether due to agreement on a single-season salary or something more significant. If the case goes to a panel, the arbitrators will need to decide between Severino’s proposed $5.25MM payout and the club’s $4.4MM counter. There’s added significance given that the Super Two qualifier still has three more potential arb years to come, making his starting salary quite important.
- While terms of his contract weren’t announced or reported at the time, Twins skipper Rocco Baldelli inked a four-year contract when being hired for his managerial debut, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports (subscription required). The deal also has multiple club options. It’s a show of faith in the rookie manager and a departure from the manner in which Minnesota has previously operated, as Aaron Gleeman of Baseball Prospectus notes (Twitter link). Under previous management, the Twins typically only issued two-year pacts to skipper Ron Gardenhire, who was one of the game’s longest-tenured managers when he was dismissed from the organization. And Paul Molitor, whom the the Twins ousted to make way for Baldelli, was one season into a three-year contract when the Twins ultimately changed course.
- Angels right-hander Matt Harvey will be out for the next week to 10 days due to a strained glute muscle, tweets Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. It’s a minor injury and one that isn’t expected to hinder Harvey’s readiness for Opening Day, but it nonetheless bears some monitoring as Harvey looks to rebuild stock in Anaheim on a one-year, $11MM contract. The injury is all the more notable given the Halos’ rash of pitching maladies in recent seasons. The team is already expecting to be without right-hander Nick Tropeano to open the season.
- The Royals are considering utilizing veteran starter Ian Kennedy as a bullpen piece this season, and the righty spoke with Rustin Dodd of The Athletic about the potential role change (subscription required). Kennedy took a team-first attitude and said he’s willing to pitch for the Royals in any role, so long as it helps the team win more games. Looking elsewhere on the roster, Dodd writes that Danny Duffy, Brad Keller and Jakob Junis are likely locks for the rotation, while non-roster invitee Homer Bailey will compete for a starter job but likely not a bullpen role (per Yost). The Kansas City Star’s Lynn Worthy also addressed the situation, speaking with newly signed Brad Boxberger about pitching roles. While Boxberger would “love” the opportunity to close, it doesn’t seem as though any such promises were made to him. Ultimately, Yost declined to discuss specific roles and stressed the importance of having multiple options who can be trusted to close out games and thrive in high-leverage spots.
Doug Fister Retires
Veteran right-hander Doug Fister has elected to call it a career after spending parts of 10 seasons in the Majors, agent Page Odle tells Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Fister, 35, received multiple Major League contract offers this winter, according to Odle, but is instead making a “100 percent family-driven” decision to spend time with his wife and two children.
A seventh-round pick of the Mariners back in 2006, Fister ascended to the Majors as a largely unheralded prospect with the Mariners in 2009. After establishing himself as a quality starter over his first 378 frames with the Mariners, Fister was flipped to the Tigers in a 2011 trade deadline deal, where he’d go on to thrive over another three seasons. Fister, in fact, was somewhat quietly one of the game’s better starters from 2011-14, pitching to a 3.11 ERA (129 ERA+) with 6.5 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 and 0.7 HR/9.
A 2015 forearm strain led to diminished velocity and diminished results for Fister, though he managed to make 32 starts for the 2016 Astros and served as a stabilizing force in their rotation. Hip and knee injuries slowed Fister in his most recent run with the Rangers, with the latter of the two issues ultimately ending his season after 66 innings.
All in all, Fister will walk away from his baseball career with a lifetime 83-92 record, a 3.72 ERA, 6.1 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 in 1422 1/3 big league innings. The towering 6’8″ righty also amassed an impressive postseason resume, tallying 56 2/3 innings of 3.02 ERA ball with a 41-to-17 K/BB ratio in five separate postseasons runs (three with the Tigers, one with the Nats and one with the Red Sox). He made one World Series start, with the Tigers in ’12, where he tossed six innings of one-run ball against the Giants.
Fister earned more than $36MM in player salaries over the life of a career that both Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs value at 20 wins above replacement. Best wishes to the former Tigers, Mariners, Nationals, Astros, Red Sox and Rangers righty in his life beyond baseball.
Red Sox Still Shopping Catchers, Seeking Rotation Depth
As pitchers and catchers report, the Red Sox are still looking to swing some deals to tweak their personnel mix in those areas. According to Sean McAdam of the Boston Sports Journal (subscription link), the organization is dangling its three backstops in trade talks while hoping to find rotation depth in return.
It’s hardly surprising to hear that president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is looking to move a catcher. After all, he made clear weeks ago that the team had little interest in carrying Christian Vazquez, Sandy Leon, and Blake Swihart on the Opening Day roster.
Nevertheless, this news is worth noting. For one thing, it’s interesting that the Boston organization is still actively engaged even with camp opening. It could instead have decided to let the situation play out before considering options just before the start of the season.
Of somewhat greater import, though, is the concept that the Red Sox are looking to boost their stockpile of starters. That’s the aim of any organization, generally speaking. But that same fact makes it rather difficult to imagine that a rival team will be particularly inclined to move passable arms — particularly given the meager output of the Boston catching trio last year and the fact that the Red Sox have already broadcast their roster intentions.
Some might argue that the club ought to focus instead on its bullpen, which seems a notably risky area of an obviously talented roster. That’s perhaps a bit of a red herring, though, as any rotation depth asset could also help (directly or indirectly) with the relief unit and the club surely knows it won’t be able to swap any of its three catchers for anything approaching a premium reliever.
It’s far from clear which of those three backstops the Sox are most inclined to move. Perhaps the market will still dictate the decision to an extent, though now the club is watching the three in uniform once again and surely has its own ideas. Dombrowski said in January that Swihart would “come to camp trying to compete to be our starting catcher,” while the team previously showed its belief in Vazquez by inking him to an extension. Perhaps that makes Leon the odd man out, but he wouldn’t likely draw significant interest in trade talks and he’s also considered a much more reliable defender than Swihart.
It’ll be interesting to see how this all plays out. Perhaps it would not be entirely surprising if the Red Sox simply end up designating one of these out-of-options players for assignment when the time comes. Then again, Dombrowski said previously that the club was waiting to “mak[e] a trade we feel good about,” seemingly indicating he believed there would be sufficient interest from other organizations to reap at least some kind of return.
Red Sox To Sign Brian Ellington
In yet another item on what has turned into Boston bullpen night here at MLBTR, the Red Sox have reportedly struck a deal with flamethrowing righty Brian Ellington. Per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (Twitter link), the 28-year-old receives a minors pact; it’s unknown whether it includes a spring invite.
Like several of the team’s other recent, low-cost pen additions, Ellington is long on tools but lacks an established track record of success at the MLB level. He owns a 4.65 ERA in 102 2/3 career frames in the majors. Ellington was dropped early in 2018 by the Marlins and didn’t last long with the Diamondbacks organization after being added on a minors deal.
Ellington has averaged a whopping 98.5 mph with his average fastball in those innings, helping him to generate an 11.4% swinging-strike rate despite infrequent use of offspeed offerings. But he has also handed out free passes like candy in the majors (5.6 per nine). Both player and team will surely enter camp hoping to find a way to harness Ellington’s arm strength.
A Closer Look At The Red Sox And The Luxury Tax
The Red Sox’ bullpen — or, really, its lack of fortification this offseason — has garnered plenty of recent attention. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has not only downplayed the possibility of a reunion with Craig Kimbrel but also the addition of any notable arm. While Dombrowski has stated that there’s no mandate to remain south of the top luxury tax border, it also seems increasingly likely (if not apparent) that that’s exactly what the team is planning to do. Most onlookers have at least a cursory awareness of what that entails, but I felt it worth a deeper look to see exactly what the Sox are deeming the theoretical breaking point — if they are indeed set on avoiding that barrier.
This isn’t necessarily a call for the Red Sox to spend more, to be clear. Boston is poised to carry Major League Baseball’s highest payroll for the second consecutive season and stomached the hit when they incurred top-level luxury penalization last year. This offseason, ownership green-lit a $68MM expenditure on Nathan Eovaldi and another $6.25MM on Steve Pearce. The Sox have hardly refused to spend. Every team, though, has its limit, and at the very least Boston seems close to that point.
At present, Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez has the Red Sox with a 2019 payroll of $238,373,928. That’s how much money they’ll pay out to players — those on the roster and those either no longer on the 40-man (Rusney Castillo) or no longer even in the organization (Pablo Sandoval).
For the purposes of the luxury tax (labeled as the Competitive Balance Tax in baseball’s collective bargaining agreement), however, payroll is calculated by the average annual value of the contracts for which a team is responsible (in addition to a set level of player benefit costs, which include medical costs, moving/travel expenses, etc.). Jason has Boston’s luxury tax payroll (“actual” payroll, as termed in the CBA) projected at $241,269,197. Those numbers, both the 2019 payroll and the “actual” payroll, are estimates and aren’t exact, but they’re both close approximations that provide a reasonably accurate depiction of what the organization’s expenses currently entail. Before delving further into what additional spending would mean for the Red Sox, it’s important to note what those numbers mean for the team’s current taxation penalties.
For the 2019 season, the luxury tax line has been set at $206MM. Even without re-signing Eovaldi and Pearce, the Sox were always going to be well north of that line. The collective bargaining agreement stipulates that a second-time offender — the Red Sox were over the luxury line in 2018 but stayed shy of it in 2017 — will pay a 30 percent tax on the first $20MM over the initial luxury line. Teams are subject to an additional 12 percent tax on the next $20MM spent. If a team crosses the luxury limit by more than $40MM, it will pay an additional 45 percent tax from that point forward and also see its top pick in the next year’s draft dropped by 10 spots. Put otherwise:
- $206MM to $226MM: 30 percent tax (a total of $6MM)
- $226MM to $246MM: 42 percent tax (a total of $8.4MM)
- $246M or more: 75 percent tax and a loss of 10 spots in the following year’s draft
Using Jason’s figures above, the Red Sox are paying the full $6MM of that first level and are $15,269,197 into the second level of tax penalization. That sum is taxed at a 42 percent rate, meaning the Sox are paying a $6,413,063 tax on it. At present, then, the Red Sox are committed to paying about $12.413MM worth of luxury tax penalties. There’s a $4,730,803 gap between their current projection and the $246MM top luxury line. If they were to, theoretically, add another reliever for a dollar less in order to avoid top-level penalization, the Red Sox would be taxed an additional $1,986,937. Of course, that’d leave them unable to make a single in-season addition should the need arise.
That, however, is the gripe for many critics. A bullpen headlined by Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, Heath Hembree, Brandon Workman, Tyler Thornburg and Brian Johnson seems quite likely to necessitate trade-deadline augmentation — and that’s before even allowing for the possibility of an injury to a key player that would also require a trade acquisition. It’s not only possible that the Red Sox will have crossed the top luxury line by the time the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline has passed — it seems downright likely. Perhaps the plan is to find trade acquisitions whose salaries can be largely paid down by their current team, but doing so would require paying up a greater premium in terms of prospects and thus weaken an already thin farm system.
Should paying more in terms of prospects be preferable to lessening the 2020 draft budget? Some might argue that it’s preferable to go ahead and commit to taking the draft hit in order to gain the advantages of a bolstered bullpen from the start of the season. After all, the division is hardly a shoo-in and the Sox obviously have designs at chasing an elusive repeat title. But what does that actually mean from a financial standpoint?
For the sake of argument, let’s take a look at what the Red Sox would have to pay in order to sign Kimbrel at the four-year, $70MM term projected by MLBTR in our Top 50 Free Agent Predictions back in November. In trying to peg Kimbrel’s eventual contract, Tim Dierkes, Jeff Todd and I all felt that Kimbrel would seek to top Aroldis Chapman‘s record guarantee (which he reportedly has indeed pursued) but ultimately fall shy and instead, ahem, “settle” for breaking Wade Davis‘ $17.33MM annual salary record for a reliever over a four-year term. Kimbrel may very well fall shy of our $70MM prediction, but he could still set a new AAV standard with a three-year, $52.5MM deal. Even a one-year deal at the $17.5MM level would come with the same CBT hit for 2019. For purposes of this hypothetical, that seems a reasonable figure to work with.
If the Sox were to pay Kimbrel a $17.5MM annual salary, the first $4,703,803 of that salary would close the gap between Boston’s current “actual” payroll and the $246MM threshold. As noted above, that’d come with a $1,986,937 luxury hit, coming to a total of $6,690,740. The remaining $12,769,197 would come with a hefty tax of $9,576,898. That’s a total of $11.564MM just in taxes before considering the money the team would actually owe to Kimbrel himself.
Viewed through that lens, Boston would effectively be on the hook for a stunning $29,036,835 in 2019 if they were to sign Kimbrel at the record rate he’s quite likely eyeing. (A multi-year deal, of course, might have greater or lesser salaries in its various seasons, though that’s all averaged for the CBT.) Frankly, even beyond any concerns about lengthy commitment to a not-so-youthful reliever, it’s pretty clear to see why the Sox don’t have much interest in retaining Kimbrel unless his price tag craters (at which point a plethora of other teams would join the bidding). Though the total luxury tax bill would still not make up an enormous amount of the team’s total payroll-related spending, it would perhaps turn a Kimbrel signing from a hefty investment to an eye-popping splurge.
That math is also informative when examining why the Sox have passed over other top-end relievers. For instance, beating the Yankees’ three-year, $27MM offer to Adam Ottavino by a margin of $500K annually would’ve still been costly for Boston. As with any contract, the first $4,703,803 of the deal would’ve been taxed at $1,986,937. The remaining $4,796,197 would come with a $3,597,148. In total, signing Ottavino at a $9.5MM annual salary would effectively cost $15.084MM in 2019.
Boiled down, any relief addition for the Red Sox with an annual salary north of the $4,703,803 gap that exists between their current “actual” payroll and the $246MM luxury line could be viewed as such (where X = the average annual value of a new contract):
(X – 4,703,803) + (X – 4,703,803)*0.75 + 6,690,740 = Total 2019 expenditure
All of that, of course, is before even acknowledging the 10-spot drop they’d face in the draft for a second consecutive season. There’s no way of knowing precisely how much the Sox would be costing themselves in the 2020 draft, or even how much they stand to lose in the 2019 draft after crossing the top level last year, as 2019 slot values aren’t yet known. However, dropping from No. 30 in 2018 to No. 40 (the drop they’re facing this year) would have resulted in a loss of $489,500 in the team’s draft pool. Draft slot values increase incrementally each season, and the Red Sox’ exact placement in the draft order obviously can’t be known. But generally speaking, the Sox would be looking at a 10-spot drop and a loss of at least $500K in their 2020 draft pool.
Clearly, the price to add a reliever of any significance will be steep for Boston — possibly more so than most would expect before truly diving into the math behind further additions. That said, it’s still worth questioning the Red Sox’ decision to draw a line in the sand at this juncture. The current state of the ‘pen makes it seem likely that Boston will need to add a reliever during the season anyhow, and that could still put the team over the limit while also costing prospects.
Beyond that, this it’s quite likely that this is the last time Boston will ever enjoy the Chris Sale, Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez all on the same roster. Sale and Bogaerts are free agents after the 2019 season, and Martinez has an opt-out provision that he’ll presumably exercise if he produces anywhere near his 2018 levels. Add in the fact that Mookie Betts can become a free agent after the 2020 season — though the Sox surely hope to extend their franchise player — and there’s all the more urgency for Boston to go all out in its pursuit of another championship.
Further spending truly doesn’t appear to be in the cards for Boston, though perhaps they’ll be able to secure one of the market’s remaining relievers at a modest $2-3MM commitment that’d still allow them to avoid the top line. But the Sox look like they’re genuinely poised to enter the season with a glaring weakness — one that’ll be tough to account for during the season. While the staggering level of taxation they’d have had to pay on another notable ‘pen arm (or two) makes their reluctance understandable, that’ll still be a tough sell to fans if the current group of relievers doesn’t exceed expectations in dramatic fashion. It’s an illustration of the potency of the current luxury tax rules — though, of course, the payrolls of virtually every other team in baseball presently reside comfortably out of range of this level of penalties.