Giancarlo Stanton Notes: Tuesday
MLBTR’s Kyle Downing recently rounded up everything we have learned this offseason about the Marlins’ marketing of star slugger Giancarlo Stanton. But there have been developments over the past few days … some of which are in some tension, perhaps reflecting different viewpoints from the actors involved in the high-stakes negotiations.
- Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch explains that if the two sides get close to a deal, the Marlins could grant the Cardinals an exclusive negotiation window of roughly 48 to 72 hours to make a pitch directly to Stanton. While MLB clubs are typically forbidden from talking to players that are under contract with another team, Goold confirmed with MLB officials that the Marlins could designate a window to “convince a player to waive his no-trade (clause) without contract modification.”
- Meanwhile, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports that the Marlins told Stanton back in October that if he declined to ultimately approve a deal, the Marlins would have to explore other ways to shed salary, which could leave him as the lone star on a roster devoid of other top-tier talent. The scenario wasn’t presented to Stanton as an ultimatum, Spencer stresses, but it does underscore the possibility that the Marlins could eventually pivot and market less challenging stars, including Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich.
- The Red Sox are an “extreme long shot” to acquire Stanton, a source tells Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston. It seems that Boston is not enamored of the current value proposition that a Stanton acquisition would represent, given the Marlins’ asking price.
Earlier Updates
East Notes: Braves, Odorizzi, Colome, Rays, Nats, Bush, Red Sox
The Braves lost their rights to 12 international prospects earlier this week as part of Major League Baseball’s punishment of the organization for signing violations, creating an unexpected influx of talent into the 2017-18 international signing market. Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper ranks the top eight prospects of that group, with Kevin Maitan still leading the way, even if his star has somewhat dimmed after a lackluster first season in the minors.
Some items from around the two East divisions…
- Jake Odorizzi and Alex Colome “have been popular in early [trade] conversations,” Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. The two pitchers are perhaps the most likely members of the Rays‘ 12-player arbitration class who will be dealt in order to cut costs, as MLBTR projects that dozen players to earn $40.4MM in 2018. Topkin figures that the Rays will be in heavy trade talks this week in order to move some of these names before Friday’s non-tender deadline. There’s also the specter of a total rebuild, which would come if Tampa decided to move a franchise cornerstone (i.e. Chris Archer, Evan Longoria, Kevin Kiermaier) this offseason. While the Rays will clearly shop the arbitration-eligible players first, Topkin wonders if the club would pounce if they got a great offer for one of Archer and company before any of the arb class had been moved. Previous reports have cited the Twins’ interest in both Odorizzi and Colome, while the Cardinals have been linked to Colome in their search for bullpen help.
- A case could be made that the Nationals should pursue a top-tier starting pitcher rather than just rotation depth this winter, though as the Washington Post’s Chelsea Janes outlines, the team could be gearing up for a bigger pitching addition next winter. The Nats will have over $50MM in salary coming off the books after the 2018 season, which could allow the club to sign or trade for a notable arm.
- Nine-year big league veteran Dave Bush has been working as a Red Sox pitching development analyst for the last year, as the Boston Herald’s Jason Mastrodonato details in this look at Bush’s duties within the organization. Bush sees his role as helping bridge the gap between the analytics department and young pitchers who may be being exposed to such information for the first time. “Baseball is not known for accepting change in a hasty manner. But I also think there’s also a benefit for someone like me, who has been a player,” Bush said. “I’m comfortable having that conversation. And it’s my responsibility to present information to them because I think it’s going to make them better.” Bush’s duties are part of president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski’s plan to overhaul how the Sox select and develop young pitchers, as the club has been notably short on homegrown arms over the last decade.
Cafardo’s Latest: Stanton, Arrieta, JBJ, Zimmermann
The latest on Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton comes from the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo, who reports that the Red Sox currently have “tepid” interest in the NL MVP. Notably, Miami isn’t enamored of Boston’s farm system, per Cafardo, though he notes that the Marlins’ main motivation in trading Stanton would be to rid themselves of his contract. As such, one shouldn’t rule out Stanton to the Red Sox if they’re willing to take on a significant portion of the $295MM coming his way over the next decade.
While it’s unclear how much of Stanton’s deal the Red Sox would be open to absorbing, the Giants are “willing to take on a lot” of it, Cafardo writes. The Giants have shown more interest than anyone else in Stanton, Cafardo hears, and he adds that they’re prepared to exceed the luxury tax threshold for the fourth straight year if necessary. As of now, they and the Cardinals are the only known teams that have submitted offers to the Marlins to acquire Stanton.
More from Cafardo:
- In addition to the previously reported Brewers and Twins, the Blue Jays, Rockies and Rangers have shown interest in free agent right-hander Jake Arrieta, Cafardo relays. All of those teams have contacted agent Scott Boras about Arrieta, though it’s unclear how serious any of them are about the 31-year-old. The Rangers seem to have the greatest need for Arrieta, who MLBTR projects will land a nine-figure contract, but as Steve Adams pointed out when previewing their offseason, they don’t have a lot of payroll flexibility.
- The Giants, White Sox and Royals “will likely keep inquiring” about Red Sox center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. throughout the offseason, Cafardo contends. Each of San Francisco, Chicago and Kansas City have pursued Bradley recently, but the Royals already had Lorenzo Cain occupying center when they went after JBJ in 2015. Now, with Cain likely to depart via free agency, the fit between the Royals and the affordable Bradley is obvious. However, it’s fair to wonder whether the Royals have a good enough farm system to put together a deal for Bradley, who’s controllable through 2020 and will make around $5.9MM next season.
- The Nationals are interested in reuniting with righty Jordan Zimmermann, but the Tigers would unsurprisingly have to eat some of his contract, according to Cafardo. Zimmermann was at his best with the Nats from 2011-15, but he has experienced a sharp decline since signing a five-year, $110MM pact with Detroit entering the 2016 campaign. The 31-year-old has pitched to an ugly 5.60 ERA in 265 1/3 innings as a Tiger and is owed an unpalatable $74MM over the next three seasons.
- Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez has a full no-trade clause – not a partial NTC – agent Jim Boggs tells Cafardo. Regardless, coming off a back injury-shortened season in which he accounted for minus-1.1 fWAR in 252 plate appearances, finding a taker for Gonzalez, 35, figures to be a tall task for the Dodgers. LA may simply eat the $21.5MM Gonzalez is owed next season in order to jettison him, Cafardo suggests.
What We Know About The Giancarlo Stanton Situation
As of Black Friday, the 2017 offseason has been astonishingly quiet. The trade and free agent market seems as though it’s being held up in large part by the situation surrounding NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton. Once that massive domino falls, it’s possible we’ll see a flurry of free agent activity follow. In the meantime, however, Stanton rumors are a heavy focus of the baseball media cycle, and as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd pointed out in an in-depth piece earlier this month, his market is wide and complex. As we approach the weekend, here’s an overview of what we know about the Marlins’ attempt to deal their All-Star outfielder.
He’s the best player available on the market- This may be redundant considering I already mentioned his brand new MVP award, but the subject is well worth its own spotlight. His .281/.376/.631 batting line is other worldly, and his 59 homers paced all of baseball in 2017. While his 6.9 fWAR only tied for fifth among all players in the majors, the rest of the top seven (Aaron Judge, Jose Altuve, Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Anthony Rendon and Mike Trout) won’t be available for teams to acquire in a trade. The top three free agents (Yu Darvish, J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer) aren’t anywhere near as valuable in terms of expected WAR output as Stanton.
Teams perceive his remaining contract as close to market value- According to these three tweets from Jon Morosi of FOX Sports, multiple teams told the Marlins that the remaining 10 years and $295MM left on Stanton’s contract are a pretty good estimate of what he’d earn on the open market, were he a free agent this offseason.
He has a lot of power over his own fate- Not only does Stanton have a full no-trade clause in his contract, but he also has the ability to opt out after the 2020 season, at which point he’d leave 7 years and $218MM on the table in search of a new deal. The opt-out makes trading him even more complicated, as it caps the contract value upside for his would-be new team. Meanwhile, the full no-trade protection gives him enormous leverage in the process. Many teams would love to add Stanton to their lineup, and the Marlins are looking to shed payroll. Ultimately, this means the Fish may not end up being able to accept the best offer, and could have to simply settle for the proposal from the city Stanton wishes to play for most.
The Marlins’ leverage over him is nonzero- While Stanton is a coveted asset and enjoys no-trade protection, he’s made it well-known that he isn’t interested in being around for a rebuild. The slugger’s desire to leave Miami could result in him approving a trade he’s not thrilled about just to play for a contender. On the other hand, it could also result in a tense game of chicken between Stanton and the Marlins to see who will bend first. Although the Marlins have a firm mission to shed payroll, they can do so in other ways; they don’t actually have to trade Stanton at all. And as much as Stanton wants to be traded, he might be willing to hold out for a team of his choice and risk staying put. The case is fascinating.
Some evaluators believe the Marlins’ asking price is unrealistic- While Miami’s asking price isn’t entirely clear, it seems as though they’re looking for a team to pay all (or nearly all) of his salary while including prospects. This has led some to suggest that the Fish need a “reality check” in terms of their asking price. If the contract is indeed roughly market value, then it’s difficult to imagine that a team will give up good prospects for the privilege to pay Stanton his full dollar value over the course of the deal.
He prefers to play near a coast- While this doesn’t seem to be a firm deal breaker, it complicates matters for teams like the Cardinals and Phillies, who have the payroll space and prospect depth to swing a trade for the prolific slugger.
The Cardinals and Giants have made formal offers- The Giants were the first to officially submit a trade proposal, with the Cardinals following suit later that same week. This doesn’t mean the trade discussions are finished; those trades could still be tweaked or even scrapped entirely in favor of starting from scratch. But the fact that there are at least two offers on the table gives the Marlins some options to weigh for the time being. It’s not known what those offers are, however, though we do know that the Cardinals included Sandy Alcantara in their proposal. It’s equally uncertain whether Miami even takes those offers seriously.
As many as eight teams are engaged in talks for him- While only six of those eight teams are thought to be serious pursuers, the fact that so many teams are showing strong interest bodes well for Miami and their power in negotiations. In addition to the Cardinals and Giants mentioned above, we know that the Dodgers, Phillies and Red Sox have had some level of dialogue with the Marlins. The Yankees, too, have reportedly done their due diligence, though it doesn’t sound as if they’re actively pursuing Stanton.
Minor MLB Transactions: 11/23/17
Here are the latest minor moves from around baseball, with the newest transactions at the top of the post…
- The Red Sox have signed second baseman Esteban Quiroz to a minor league deal, as per a tweet from Team Mexico’s official Twitter feed. (WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford was among those to report that the contract contains an invitation to Boston’s big league Spring Training camp.) Quiroz, who turns 26 in February, has a career .293/.402/.451 slash line and 38 homers over 1573 career plate appearances in the Mexican League, plus he also represented Mexico in the most recent World Baseball Classic. Dustin Pedroia will miss at least the first two months of the season recovering from knee surgery, so Quiroz will be part of the second base mix during camp as the Red Sox look for fill-ins for their longtime star.
- The White Sox signed right-hander Dustin Antolin to a minor league deal. The Somerset Patriots of the independent Atlantic League (Antolin’s most recent club) broke the news on Twitter; Antolin signed with Somerset after being released from his minor league deal with the Nationals last June. The 28-year-old Hawaiian has a 4.40 ERA, 8.7 K/9 and 2.07 K/BB rate over 446 1/3 career innings in the affiliated minor leagues, mostly in the Blue Jays’ farm system. Antolin has one MLB appearance to his credit, tossing two innings for the Nats in 2016.
- The Rockies signed righty Scott McGough to a minors contract, Baseball America’s Matt Eddy reports. McGough was a fifth-round pick for the Dodgers in the 2011 draft and was sent to the Marlins as part of the Hanley Ramirez trade in July 2012. The 28-year-old has a 3.48 ERA, 8.0 K/9 and 2.43 K/BB rate over 325 2/3 minor league innings (almost entirely as a reliever) with the Dodgers, Marlins and Orioles. McGough’s only MLB experience is a six-game stint with the Marlins in 2015.
Players Added To The 40-Man Roster
As detailed earlier this morning at MLBTR, the deadline for Major League clubs to add players to the 40-man roster in order to protect them from next month’s Rule 5 Draft is tonight. Because of that, there will be literally dozens of moves between now and 8pm ET as teams make final determinations on who to protect and who to risk losing in next month’s Rule 5 draft. This process will lead to smaller-scale trades, waiver claims and DFAs, but for some clubs the only necessary moves will simply be to select the contracts of the prospects they wish to place on the 40-man roster. We’ll track those such moves in this post…
- Heading onto the Blue Jays‘ roster, per a club announcement, are righty Connor Greene, lefty Tom Pannone, first baseman Rowdy Tellez, and catchers Dan Jansen and Reese McGuire.
- The Rays have selected the contracts of righties Brent Honeywell, Diego Castillo, Yonny Chirinos, and Jose Mujica, lefty Ryan Yarbrough, first baseman/outfielder Jake Bauers, and outfielder Justin Williams, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
- The Diamondbacks placed lefty Jared Miller on the MLB roster, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports on Twitter.
- A list of six players is heading onto the Reds‘ 40-man, per Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer (via Twitter): infielders Alex Blandino and Shed Long, outfielder Jose Siri, and righties Jose Lopez, Jesus Reyes, and Zack Weiss.
- The Padres and Brewers have joined the teams announcing their additions. For San Diego, lefties Jose Castillo and Brad Wieck are heading to the 40-man. Milwaukee has selected shortstop Mauricio Dubon, catcher Jacob Nottingham, and righties Marcos Diplan and Freddy Peralta.
- The Marlins and Yankees just struck a trade relating to their 40-man maneuvering, and each announced their selections shortly thereafter. Miami is placing outfielder Braxton Lee on the MLB roster along with righties Merandy Gonzalez, Pablo Lopez, and James Needy. New York, meanwhile, will select righties Albert Abreu, Domingo Acevedo, and Jonathan Loaisiga to the 40-man along with outfielder Billy McKinney and infielders Thairo Estrada and (last but not least) Gleyber Torres.
Click to check in on other teams that have selected players to their 40-man rosters …
Red Sox Notes: Offseason, Brentz, 40-Man
Some notes from Fenway Park…
- With the Red Sox looking for power bats this winter, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald looks at how making a big signing (i.e. J.D. Martinez, Eric Hosmer) or trade (for Giancarlo Stanton) would impact the club’s payroll and the rest of its offseason moves. For instance, signing Martinez would give the Sox less future financial space to make other high-profile moves this winter, assuming Boston wanted to keep some money free to ink its current young stars to extensions.
- A much more conservative offseason forecast is provided by Boston.com’s Paul Swydan, who argues that the Red Sox should go after less-expensive options (i.e. Jay Bruce, Hyun Soo Kim, Zach Duke) to address their first base, outfield, and bullpen needs, while still saving money for extensions and to make a big signing from the star-laden 2018-19 free agent class.
- Bryce Brentz looks like the team’s top choice for the fourth outfielder role next year, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told MLB.com’s Ian Browne and other reporters earlier this week. With Chris Young hitting free agency, the Red Sox have a need for a backup outfielder, particularly a right-handed hitter who can spell Jackie Bradley Jr. and Andrew Benintendi against southpaws. Brentz has only appeared in 34 MLB games since the Sox selected him 36th overall in the 2010 draft, though he is coming off a very strong 2017 season that saw him hit .271/.334/.529 with 31 homers over 494 PA for Triple-A Pawtucket.
- Minor league pitchers Jalen Beeks, Chandler Shepherd, and Jake Cosart seem like the top candidates to fill the three open spots on the 40-man roster, Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe writes. Teams have until 7pm CT to set their rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft on December 14.
Gammons’ Latest: Cobb, Machado, Maitan, Braves, Swihart
According to “industry consensus,” Alex Cobb‘s free agent market will come down to a battle between the Cubs and Yankees, Peter Gammons writes in his newest entry at GammonsDaily.com. Chicago’s interest in Cobb (which is apparently mutual) is already known, and such other teams as the Phillies, Orioles, and Blue Jays have also been linked to Cobb on the rumor mill, though New York would seem like something of a surprise candidate. Since Cobb is expected to land a pricey multi-year deal, it would be difficult for the Yankees to sign the right-hander and stay under the luxury tax threshold, unless the team was able to unload another big contract or two off its books. Starting pitching also doesn’t appear to be a critical need for the Yankees, as while a variety of young arms are battling for the fifth starter’s role, signing a more inexpensive veteran (or bringing back C.C. Sabathia) would seem like a likelier move than making a big splash to sign Cobb.
Here’s more from Gammons…
- Orioles officials are debating whether or not to move Manny Machado to shortstop next season. While Machado is a free agent next winter, incumbent shortstop Tim Beckham may also not be the long-term answer at the position, as his scorching-hot first month with the O’s doesn’t erase other concerns about his overall offensive and defensive capability. Given that Machado himself would reportedly prefer to move from third base to his original minor league position, it doesn’t seem like the O’s would meet with any resistance from the star infielder if they decided on the move. Machado has been one of baseball’s best defensive third basemen but he has also displayed an above-average glove (5.4 UZR/150, +2 Defensive Runs Saved) over 433 career innings at short. A position shift would greatly alter Baltimore’s offseason plans and put them in line to seek out third base help, perhaps even a top free agent like Mike Moustakas or Todd Frazier. The O’s could also aim lower and simply look for a platoon partner to join Beckham at the hot corner.
- The Braves “expect to lose” prized prospect Kevin Maitan as part of MLB’s investigation into the team’s alleged violations of international and domestic amateur signing rules, Gammons hear from a source within the Atlanta organization. Interestingly, the feeling within the new Braves front office (now led by new GM Alex Anthopoulos) is that “Maitan was [not] worth the money or the hype,” so losing him wouldn’t be a major setback for the farm system. Maitan signed for a $4.25MM bonus at the opening of the 2016-17 July 2 international signing period, and he hit .241/.290/.340 in his first pro season, receiving 176 PA in rookie ball. Despite those unimpressive numbers, Maitan came into the season as a consensus top-100 prospect in baseball and is still just 17 years old — even if the new Braves decision-makers weren’t keen on Maitan, they’d still be losing a significant trade chip if the league did indeed void his contract with the team.
- Some Red Sox officials want to try Blake Swihart out at second base, as the team will be looking for help at the keystone with Dustin Pedroia sidelined for at least the first two months of the season. Boston has already been exploring the idea of using Swihart in a superutility role, as he is regarded as a good enough athlete to handle first base, third base, left field, and his former position of catcher. Perhaps most importantly for Swihart’s future, the former top prospect tells Gammons that he has “felt the best I’ve felt in two years” and seems fully recovered from the ankle injuries that stalled his development.
AL Rumors: Indians, Orioles, Machado, Red Sox
While it’s unclear if any deals will materialize, a slew of Indians drew trade interest at this month’s general managers meetings, according to Terry Pluto of cleveland.com. Specifically, teams inquired about a few Indians pitchers – including right-handers Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger – as well as catchers Roberto Perez and Yan Gomes. Clubs also approached the Tribe about a couple less heralded members of the organization in outfielder Greg Allen and minor league righty Shane Bieber, Pluto adds. Of those players, it’s clear Carrasco would warrant the largest return, but there’s no reason for the Indians to move him. Conversely, the Tribe would be open to dealing either Perez or Gomes, Pluto suggests, considering the team has high-end prospect Francisco Mejia waiting in the wings behind those two.
More from a pair of other American League cities:
- The Orioles will wait until later in the offseason to discuss extensions with third baseman Manny Machado and center fielder Adam Jones, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com relays. Kubatko doesn’t expect an extension for Machado to come to fruition, which isn’t surprising given that he’s primed sign a mega-deal on the open market a year from now. Interestingly, though, Kubatko hears that Machado would prefer to play shortstop instead of third base, which could make a potential trip to free agency all the more intriguing. Machado logged 52 appearances at short between 2015-16 but has otherwise played the hot corner since debuting in 2012.
- Closer Zach Britton, another high-profile Oriole entering a contract year, likely wouldn’t bring back a great return via trade this offseason, Buster Olney of ESPN.com observes. While the Orioles are open to trading Britton, his lack of team control, high salary (a projected $12.2MM in arbitration) and recent arm problems figure to tamp down his value, Olney writes. Still, whether it’s Britton, Darren O’Day or Brad Brach, Baltimore seems poised to move one of its most established relievers and use the money it saves on much-needed starting pitching help, per Olney.
- More from Olney, who reports that the Red Sox and three-time World Series-winning manager Tony La Russa discussed having him serve as rookie skipper Alex Cora’s bench coach. Instead, Boston hired La Russa as a special assistant to president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and replaced previous bench coach Gary DiSarcina with Ron Roenicke. La Russa, 73, hasn’t been part of a coaching staff since he managed the Cardinals to a title in 2011.
East Notes: O’s/Cobb, Mets, Nats, Jays, Rays
The Orioles seem to be casting a wide net in their hunt for starting pitching, as they have been cited as having interest in quite a few arms already. While the organization has become known for doing a good portion of its business later in the offseason, perhaps it’ll be more aggressive on some pitchers this time around. In any event, the latest name connected to the O’s is righty Alex Cobb, with Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweeting that the team has interest in a hurler who long tormented them in the division. Cobb won’t come cheap, but could be an option if Baltimore decides it’s able to add a more significant contract. The primary goal, though, will be to ensure there’s enough depth on hand in the rotation.
More from the eastern divisions:
- The Mets are the current poster child for the concept that you can never have enough pitching depth. Even on the heels of a tough season in which the club’s vaunted rotation collapsed, though, GM Sandy Alderson says he’ll consider dealing arms, as Mike Puma of the New York Post reports. While there’s still a need to “be careful” not to thin the staff out too far, Alderson is obviously also looking for ways to improve with a limited amount of payroll flexibility. Odds are that the team’s most prominent pitchers won’t be dangled, but Puma suggests Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo, or Rafael Montero might conceivably be discussed.
- While there’s nothing the Nationals can do to get out from under their 2018 commitment to Matt Wieters, the team will look for ways to improve behind the plate. Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post writes that the plan is to reduce the veteran’s role. Of course, that would mean relying more heavily on another player, and the team’s top internal alternatives (Pedro Severino and Raudy Read) are hardly sure things. An external acquisition will surely at least be considered; I ran through some other possibilities after the Nats were bounced from the postseason.
- The Blue Jays are aiming for depth in their pitching staff, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca writes. Lefty Robbie Ross is among the arms they are interested in, he reports. Certainly, Toronto has had a chance to see Ross up close over the past several years, which he has spent with the Red Sox. He was limited by injury in 2017 but turned in 55 1/3 innings of 3.25 ERA pitching in the prior campaign. Toronto isn’t limiting itself to lefty relievers, though; Nicholson-Smith says the club is looking at basically every type of hurler out there.
- Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times has the latest on the Rays‘ efforts to land a new ballpark. Owner Stuart Sternberg expressed optimism about a prospective site in Hillsborough County, but there are plenty of challenges still to be dealt with. Among them: the club “might only cover $150 million of the projected $800 million cost,” Topkin writes. Those interested in learning more about where things stand will want to give the link a full read.