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Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts

By Mark Polishuk | December 30, 2023 at 10:27am CDT

On paper, a longer contract equals a larger amount of job security.  And yet every year, we seem to be adding a longer list of caveats to this annual post detailing which managers and front office bosses (a GM, president of baseball operations, chief baseball officer, or whatever the title may be) are entering the final guaranteed year of their contracts.

First off, this list is somewhat speculative — some teams don’t publicly announce the terms of employee contracts, nor are details always leaked to reporters.  It is entirely possible some of the names listed have already quietly agreed to new deals, or were already contracted beyond 2024.  Secondly, obviously a contract only carries so much weight if a team drastically underperforms, and if ownership feels a change is needed in the dugout or in the front office.  Or, ownership might still desire a change even if the team is doing well on the field, i.e. the Marlins parting ways with Kim Ng after a wild card berth last season.

Craig Counsell’s five-year, $40MM deal to become the Cubs’ new manager also provides an interesting wrinkle to the managerial market.  With Counsell’s contract setting a new modern benchmark for managerial salaries, some of the more established skippers on this list will surely be looking to match or top Counsell’s deal.  These managers might choose (as Counsell did) to finish the year without signing a new contract and then test the open market, since you never know when a mystery team like the Cubs might swoop in to top the field.

As always, thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for reference information on some of these contract terms.

Angels: The Halos have had eight consecutive losing seasons, including the first three years of Perry Minasian’s stint as general manager.  Minasian now faces the challenge of trying to break this losing streak without Shohei Ohtani on the roster, and even before Ohtani joined the Dodgers, Minasian was clear that the Angels weren’t going to be rebuilding.  This tracks with the overall aggressive nature of owner Arte Moreno, yet this approach has also manifested itself in five non-interim GMs running the Angels since Moreno bought the team in 2003.  As Minasian enters the last year of his contract, it will take at least a winning season to keep Moreno from making yet another front office change.

Athletics: There hasn’t been any word about an extension for general manger David Forst, even though Forst’s last deal purportedly expired after the 2023 season.  It can therefore probably be assumed that Forst inked a new deal at some point, as it has appeared to be business as usual for the longtime Oakland executive this winter (or as “usual” as business can be given the Athletics’ bare-bones rebuild and the unusual nature of the team’s impending move to Las Vegas).  Manager Mark Kotsay would’ve been entering the final guaranteed year of his original deal with the A’s, except the team exercised their club option on Kotsay through the 2025 season.

Braves: Alex Anthopoulos is entering the last season of his three-year extension as Atlanta’s president of baseball operations, and one would imagine that ownership will aim to lock Anthopoulos up to another deal as soon as possible.  The Braves have won six straight NL East titles and the 2021 World Series championship during Anthopoulos’ six seasons with the organization, and look to be contenders for years to come thanks to the core of star players under long-term deals.  Anthopoulos would seemingly be eager to stay in Atlanta for this same reason, though if he did choose to play out the year and test the market, he would undoubtedly command a lot of interest from teams looking for a new chief executive.

Cardinals: For just the third time in the last century, a Cardinals team lost 91 or more games.  This unexpected interruption in the Cards’ run of success has naturally put a lot of heat on Oliver Marmol, who is entering the final season of his three-year contract.  Unsurprisingly, the team had yet to have any extension talks with Marmol as of early December, and it remains to be seen if Marmol will get even one extra year of security.  With such franchise stalwarts as Yadier Molina or Joe McEwing perhaps waiting in the wings as managers of the future, Marmol will surely need a quick start and at least a winning record in 2024 to retain his job.

Guardians: Chris Antonetti’s contract details haven’t been publicly known for more than a decade, yet there isn’t any sense that the longtime executive will be leaving Ohio any time soon.  Antonetti has been part of Cleveland’s front office since 1999, and he has been running the baseball ops department (first as GM and then as president of baseball operations) since 2010.  While the Guardians stumbled to a 76-86 record last year, Antonetti has a long track record of building contending teams on low payrolls, and he’ll now embark on a new era with Stephen Vogt replacing Terry Francona as the Guards’ manager.

Mariners: Another somewhat speculative situation, as while president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and manager Scott Servais signed extensions in September 2021, the exact length of those extensions wasn’t reported.  It is probably fair to assume both men are signed beyond 2024, though Servais’ previous two deals were three-year contracts, and 2024 would be his final guaranteed year if the skipper’s latest contract was also a three-year pact.

Orioles: Baltimore is particularly mum about the details of any employee contracts, as GM Mike Elias’ contract terms have never been publicized since he took over the club in November 2018.  Manager Brandon Hyde has already signed one extension that flew under the radar, and that deal has apparently stretched beyond the 2023 season, as there hasn’t been any suggestion that Hyde won’t return to the AL East champions.  In either case, Elias and Hyde won’t seem to have any worries about job security given how the Orioles won 101 games last year, and might be budding powerhouses for the next decade given the amount of young talent on the roster and in the minor league pipeline.

Pirates: Ben Cherington is entering his fifth season as Pittsburgh’s general manager, and terms of his original deal weren’t reported.  With the Bucs perhaps starting to turn the corner after their long rebuild, there wouldn’t appear to be any reason for ownership to move on from Cherington, if he hasn’t already been quietly signed to a new deal.  The Pirates already extended manager Derek Shelton back in April, in another hint that ownership is satisfied with the team’s direction.

Rays: Kevin Cash’s last extension was a lengthy six-year deal covering the 2019-24 seasons, with a club option for 2025.  It seems like a lock that the Rays will at least exercise that club option and seek out another multi-year deal, and Cash has a good case to argue for a Counsell-esque contract.  Widely considered one of baseball’s best managers, Cash is 739-617 over his nine seasons in Tampa Bay and has led the team to five consecutive postseason berths.

Red Sox: Alex Cora is entering the final year of his contract, and the Red Sox are coming off a pair of last-place finishes in the AL East.  Despite these results, the blame seems to have been placed on now-fired chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, as there hasn’t been much indication that ownership is dissatisfied with Cora’s performance as manager.  Since Cora has hinted that he might like to run a front office himself in the future, it will be interesting to monitor if he might pursue those ambitions as soon as next offseason, or if he might sign a new extension with the Red Sox as manager, or if Cora could perhaps let the season play out and then accept bids from several suitors outside of Boston.

Rockies: In each of the last two Februarys, Bud Black has signed a one-year extension to tack an extra year onto his run as Colorado’s manager.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see Black do the same this spring, as past reports have indicated that Black and the Rockies are working on an unofficial roll-over arrangement with the manager’s contract status.  As loyal as owner Dick Monfort is known to be with his employees, however, one wonders if the Rockies’ 103-loss season in 2023 (or their five straight losing seasons) might lead to questions about Black’s future, even if the team’s roster construction or their boatload of pitching injuries last year can’t be blamed on Black.  For what it’s worth, the terms of GM Bill Schmidt’s deal weren’t publicized when Schmidt was promoted to the full-time position after the 2021 season, though Schmidt isn’t thought to be in any danger of being replaced.

Twins: Chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine are both apparently entering the final year of their contracts, though Minnesota has been known to be somewhat quiet about employee contracts (such as manager Rocco Baldelli’s last extension).  The duo known as “Falvine” have been on the job for seven seasons, with something of an all-or-nothing track record of either losing seasons or playoff berths, and the Twins were on the upswing again with an AL Central title in 2023.  Assuming either exec hasn’t already signed an under-the-radar extension, the Twins would seemingly be eager to retain both Falvey and Levine, though either could explore options elsewhere for at least leverage purposes.  For Levine in particular, he could be looking to lead his own front office, after being a finalist for Boston’s CBO job this fall and previously getting some consideration for front office vacancies with the Rockies and Phillies in recent years.

Yankees: Perhaps no skipper in baseball faces more public pressure than Aaron Boone, given how a lot of Bronx fans were calling for his ouster even before the Yankees missed the playoffs and won only 82 games in 2023.  Boone is entering the last guaranteed year of his contract, and the Yankees have a club option on his services for 2025.  For as much loyalty as owner Hal Steinbrenner and GM Brian Cashman have shown to Boone, it is hard to imagine the manager would be retained if New York doesn’t at least make the postseason again, and another miss could also raise some new questions about Cashman’s status (though his deal runs through the 2026 season).

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Atlanta Braves Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Cleveland Guardians Colorado Rockies Los Angeles Angels MLBTR Originals Minnesota Twins New York Yankees Oakland Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates Seattle Mariners St. Louis Cardinals Tampa Bay Rays Aaron Boone Alex Anthopoulos Alex Cora Ben Cherington Brandon Hyde Bud Black Chris Antonetti David Forst Derek Falvey Jerry Dipoto Kevin Cash Mike Elias Oliver Marmol Perry Minasian Scott Servais Thad Levine

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Andrelton Simmons Retires

By Anthony Franco | December 28, 2023 at 9:00pm CDT

Four-time Gold Glove winner Andrelton Simmons is retiring, his representatives at ISE Baseball announced on Instagram earlier this week. The defensive stalwart last appeared in the majors in July 2022.

Simmons was a second-round draftee of the Braves in 2010 out of an Oklahoma junior college. There was some thought he might be better suited as a pitcher at the time thanks to his elite arm strength. Atlanta stuck with him as a shortstop, where prospect evaluators projected Simmons as a plus defender. He exceeded even the loftiest reviews of his glove, quite likely becoming the best defensive infielder of his generation.

The Braves first called him up in June 2012, a little before his 23rd birthday. Simmons capably held down shortstop from that point forward, putting up roughly league average hitting with strong defensive reviews. He started that year’s Wild Card game and cemented himself as an everyday player for the better part of the next decade.

Simmons took what would be a career-high 658 plate appearances the following season. He connected on a personal-best 17 homers with a .248/.296/.396 slash line. While that wasn’t particularly imposing offense, he rated as a staggering 30 runs above average with the glove. That earned him his first Gold Glove and down-ballot MVP support and helped the Braves to an NL East title.

The following offseason, Atlanta signed Simmons to a seven-year extension. His $58MM guarantee established a new record for players with between one and two years of MLB service. Simmons’ power dipped over the next two seasons, but he continued to rack up eye-popping metrics and highlights on defense. He won a second Gold Glove in 2014 and arguably should’ve received the award again the following year.

Atlanta missed the postseason in both seasons, however, kicking off a rebuild. During the 2015-16 offseason, the Braves dealt Simmons to the Angels for a prospect package headlined by Sean Newcomb. While the left-hander had an inconsistent tenure in Atlanta, Simmons spent the next few seasons offering his typical combination of slightly below-average hitting and superlative defense.

He’d win two more Gold Gloves in Orange County, finishing in the top 15 in AL MVP balloting in 2017 and ’18. He was credited with 41 Defensive Runs Saved in 2017, easily the highest single-season mark by a shortstop since the statistic was introduced in 2002. Simmons owns three of the top 10 and six of the top 30 DRS grades on record at the infield’s most demanding position. Unsurprisingly, he easily holds the top career mark among shortstops over the past two decades. His estimated 201 runs saved in more than 10,000 innings is 82 runs higher than second-place finisher Adam Everett.

Simmons remained with the Halos through 2020. He signed a $10.5MM deal with the Twins for the 2021 campaign. While he continued to play stellar defense, his offense cratered. He hit .223/.283/.274 in 131 games, setting the stage for a modest $4MM deal with the Cubs. Simmons mustered only a .173/.244/.187 line in 35 contests for Chicago and was released midseason.

He didn’t sign with a major league team from that point forward. The Curacao native represented the Netherlands in last spring’s World Baseball Classic, as he had in 2013 and ’17. He saw action at third base in an infield also comprising Didi Gregorius, Jonathan Schoop and Xander Bogaerts. Simmons went 2-11 in four games to close his playing career.

Simmons appeared in parts of 11 MLB seasons. He tallied more than 4,800 plate appearances over 1,226 contests, hitting .263/.312/.366 with 70 home runs. He was one of the game’s more reliable contact bats, striking out in fewer than 10% of his plate appearances. Simmons will be better remembered as one of the best defensive shortstops the game has ever seen.

FanGraphs valued his career around 25 wins above replacement, while Baseball Reference credited him with 37 WAR. B-Ref pegs his earnings just under $72MM. MLBTR congratulates Simmons on his excellent run and wishes him the best in retirement.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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Braves Sign Phillip Evans To Minor League Deal

By Nick Deeds | December 28, 2023 at 8:45pm CDT

The Braves and third baseman Phillip Evans are in agreement on a minor league deal, according to the transactions tracker on Evans’ MLB.com player profile. Details of the deal are not known, but it’s likely that the deal comes with an invite to big league Spring Training.

Evans, a former 15th-round pick by the Mets who made his MLB debut back in 2017, hit fairly well over three short stints in the big leagues between Queens and Pittsburgh during the 2017, ’18, and ’20 seasons with a .290/.377/.366 slash line in 106 combined trips to the plate. That led Evans to get his first long-term role in the majors during the 2021 season, but the utilityman struggled to a slash line of just .206/.312/.299 in 247 plate appearances across 76 games. Those struggles led the Pirates to release Evans at the end of the season.

The utility man went on to sign with the Yankees on a minor league deal, but struggled in 400 trips to the plate for the club at the Triple-A level and didn’t reach the majors at all during the 2022 campaign. Evans also didn’t appear in the majors after signing with the Diamondbacks on a minor league pact last offseason. While he hit a seemingly strong .312/.424/.439 in 590 Triple-A trips to the plate last season, the inflated offensive environment of the Pacific Coast League, which Arizona’s Triple-A affiliate plays in, means that performance was good for a wRC+ of just 117.

Even so, that respectable offensive performance combined with exceptional versatility that has seen him make at least one professional appearance at every position on the diamond except for center field throughout his professional career makes Evans among the more interesting depth pieces to be had on a minor league deal. The Braves boast one of the deepest positional groups in the majors, meaning that even if Evans were to beat out the likes of David Fletcher or Forrest Wall for a spot on the club’s Opening Day roster, it’s unlikely he’d see consistent playing time barring a significant injury to a member of the starting lineup. Nonetheless, the 31-year-old will likely get the opportunity to do just that this spring along with other non-roster depth options like Leury Garcia and Andrew Velazaquez.

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Atlanta Braves Transactions Phillip Evans

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Eight Teams Combine For Record $209.8MM In Luxury Tax Bills

By Mark Polishuk | December 23, 2023 at 1:34pm CDT

Major League Baseball has finalized the luxury tax calculations for the 2023 season, and the eight teams over the Competitive Balance Tax threshold will combine for a total bill of $209.8MM, Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports.  Both the total number of tax-paying teams and the total sum are new records, surpassing the previous highs of six teams (in 2016 and 2022) and $78.5MM (in 2022).

Here is what each of the eight teams owes for surpassing at least the $233MM base CBT threshold….

  • Mets: $100,781,932
  • Padres: $39.7MM
  • Yankees: $32.4MM
  • Dodgers: $19.4MM
  • Phillies: $6.98MM
  • Blue Jays: $5.5MM
  • Braves: $3.2MM
  • Rangers: $1.8MM

As a reminder of how the luxury tax operates, the CBT figures are determined by the average annual value of salaries for players on the 40-man roster.  A player earning $20MM over two seasons, for example, has a CBT number of $10MM, even if the player might earn $8MM in the first year of the contract and $12MM in the second year.  Deferred money in a contract can reduce a luxury tax number to some extent — most famously, Shohei Ohtani’s $700MM deal with the Dodgers contains $680MM in deferred money, so his CBT hit will be roughly $46MM per season instead of $70MM.

A team is considered a “first-time payor” if they haven’t spent above the CBT threshold in the previous season.  A first-time payor would owe a 20% surcharge on any dollar spent between $233MM and $253MM, 32% of anything between $253MM and $273MM, 62.5% on anything between $273MM and $293MM, and then 80% of overages for anything beyond $293MM.  These percentages rise if a team is a tax payor for two consecutive seasons, and then even further if a team exceeds the CBT line in three or more consecutive seasons.  This year’s CBT class featured three first-time payors (Texas, Atlanta, Toronto), three two-time payors (Philadelphia, both New York teams) and two three-time payors (San Diego, Los Angeles).

The $293MM threshold was instituted in the last Collective Bargaining Agreement as a fourth penalty tier, and it is unofficially known as the “Steve Cohen Tax” in a reference to the Mets owner’s penchant for big spending.  Even though New York has only topped the CBT whatsoever in 2022 and 2023, it isn’t surprising that Cohen’s team set new standards for tax payouts.  The Mets’ tax payroll of $374.7MM and approximate $100.78MM tax bill far exceeded the 2015 Dodgers’ previous records of $291.1MM and $43.6MM, respectively.

This bill would’ve been even higher if the Mets hadn’t unexpectedly struggled, and unloaded some expensive contracts at the trade deadline in order to save some money and reload with an eye towards probably 2025 as a more clear-cut return to contention.  Blum also notes that the Mets received a $2,126,471 tax credit related to a CBA provision, which slightly reduced their bill further.

As always, the actual financial cost of exceeding the tax is perhaps the least-important part of the penalties, especially for teams who barely across the first threshold.  Teams who exceed the CBT line would face further punishment in regards to free agents who reject qualifying offers, whether that translates to additional compensation required to sign a QO-rejecting player, or lesser compensation received if a team’s own qualified free agent signs elsewhere.  For instance, signing Ohtani cost the Dodgers not just $700MM, but also $1MM in international draft pool money and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2024 draft.  For a team like the Padres, should Blake Snell or Josh Hader sign elsewhere, San Diego’s compensatory draft selection wouldn’t come until after the fourth round of the 2024 draft.

Spending on talent is more often than not a recipe for success on the field, though obviously hardly a guarantee.  The Mets had a losing record, and the Padres and Yankees each squeaked over the .500 mark with 82-80 records.  The other five tax payors reached the playoffs, though the Phillies and the World Series champion Rangers were the only members of that group of five to win at least one postseason series.

The $209.8MM in tax revenues will be split up in three ways by the league.  The first $3.5MM is devoted to funding player benefits, $103.15MM will go towards funding individual player retirement accounts, and the other $103.15MM will be put into a supplemental commissioner’s discretionary fund and distributed amongst revenue-sharing recipient teams who have grown their (non-media) local revenue over a pre-determined number of years.

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MLBTR Podcast: Tyler Glasnow, Jung Hoo Lee, D-Backs’ Signings and the Braves’ Confusing Moves

By Darragh McDonald | December 20, 2023 at 11:59pm CDT

The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • Dodgers acquire and extend Tyler Glasnow (0:30)
  • The Giants signed outfielder Jung Hoo Lee (7:15)
  • Diamondbacks sign Eduardo Rodriguez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (13:05)

Plus, Steve Adams joins to answer your questions, including…

  • What’s going on with Atlanta shuffling all these contracts around? (21:25)
  • Will the Mariners do anything with the payroll they jettisoned? (30:15)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Deferred Money – listen here
  • Winter Meetings, Ohtani Secrecy, and the Mariners Shedding Salary – listen here
  • Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Offseason Questions – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

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Braves Sign Taylor Widener To Minor League Deal

By Darragh McDonald | December 20, 2023 at 5:35pm CDT

The Braves have signed right-hander Taylor Widener to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. The righty has been assigned to Triple-A Gwinnett for now but could perhaps be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee.

Widener, 29, was drafted by the Yankees but was sent to the Diamondbacks in the complex three-team deal involving Brandon Drury, Steven Souza Jr. and others. He went on to toss 107 2/3 innings for the Snakes from 2020 to 2022 with an earned run average of 4.26. He struck out 22.3% of batters faced but also gave out walks at an 11% clip. His .274 batting average on balls in play and 80.8% strand rate were both on the lucky side of average, leading to a 5.54 FIP and 4.68 SIERA that weren’t as impressive as his ERA.

He was outrighted by the Diamondbacks in January and ended up spending the most recent season in South Korea, pitching for two different clubs in the Korea Baseball Organization. He started with the NC Dinos but was released in August and then signed with the Samsung Lions. Between the two clubs, he tossed 115 innings over 20 starts and one relief appearance. He had a combined ERA of 4.54 in that time, striking out 20% of batters while walking 8.1% and keeping 60.4% of balls in play on the ground.

Widener was working exclusively out of the bullpen in 2022 but was mostly back in a starting gig in 2023. It’s unknown if Atlanta prefers him in one role or the other but they might like the flexibility. They signed reliever Reynaldo López this offseason and will reportedly stretch him out in the spring, with the plan of moving him back to the bullpen if he doesn’t win a rotation job.

The club currently projects to have a rotation of Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder, with López in the mix for a spot at the back alongside guys like AJ Smith-Shawver and Huascar Ynoa. Widener will give the club a non-roster option in that competition or perhaps in their relief mix. If he gets a roster spot at any point, he still has a couple of options remaining.

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Julio Rodríguez Tops 2023 Pre-Arb Bonus Pool

By Darragh McDonald | December 18, 2023 at 5:59pm CDT

Mariners center fielder Julio Rodríguez will receive $1,865,349 from the $50MM bonus pool for pre-arbitration players, the highest of the 2023 recipients, per a report from Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. The AP later released a full list of bonus recipients.

A notable new element of the current collective bargaining agreement is that $50MM is to be taken from central revenues annually and distributed to players that have not yet qualified for arbitration. Certain portions of the money are to be based on awards voting:

  • Rookie of the Year: $750K for first place, $500K for second place
  • MVP and Cy Young: $2.5MM for first place, $1.75MM for second place, $1.5MM for third place, $1MM for fourth or fifth place
  • All-MLB: $1MM for being named “First Team,” $500K for being named “Second Team”

As Blum highlights today, a player is eligible to receive the bonus for one of those achievements per year, earning only the highest amount. Rodríguez finished fourth in American League MVP voting, meaning he got $1MM for that, which accounted for the majority of his payout. After the bonuses, the remainder of the pool is divided on a percentage basis among the top 100 players based on the joint MLB/MLBPA-created version of WAR.

Players are still eligible even if they have signed extensions, as long as they would have been pre-arb without signing such a deal. Rodríguez and the Mariners signed a convoluted extension towards the end of his rookie season in 2022 but he’s only at two years of service time now. Since he would have been pre-arb without that extension, he was able to top this year’s pool.

The following 10 players got more than $1MM:

  • Rodríguez: $1,865,349
  • Corbin Carroll: $1,812,337
  • Adley Rutschman: $1,798,439
  • Spencer Strider: $1,692,833
  • Justin Steele: $1,673,331
  • Kyle Bradish: $1,666,786
  • Félix Bautista: $1,467,094
  • Gunnar Henderson: $1,428,001
  • Jonah Heim: $1,060,306
  • Tanner Bibee: $1,016,931

Last year, Dylan Cease got the biggest slice of the 2022 pie, taking home $2,457,426.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Atlanta Braves Baltimore Orioles Chicago Cubs Cleveland Guardians Collective Bargaining Agreement MLBPA Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool Seattle Mariners Texas Rangers Adley Rutschman Corbin Carroll Felix Bautista Gunnar Henderson Jonah Heim Julio Rodriguez Justin Steele Kyle Bradish Spencer Strider Tanner Bibee

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Braves Release Matt Carpenter

By Steve Adams | December 18, 2023 at 10:34am CDT

The Braves have released veteran infielder/designated hitter Matt Carpenter, reports Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Atlanta acquired Carpenter a few days ago, taking on $4MM of this year’s $5.5MM salary (and the associated luxury tax hit) as a means of effectively purchasing left-handed reliever Ray Kerr from the Padres.

While the Braves had hoped to trade Carpenter in similar fashion to Marco Gonzales, Evan White and Max Stassi (all of whom they acquired and quickly dealt away in salary-driven swaps), it seems they weren’t able to find a taker for Carpenter even at that rate. He’ll now be a free agent who’ll cost a new team only the league minimum for any time spent on the big league roster — the Braves and Padres will remain on the hook for the rest of his salary.

Carpenter, 38, had a brilliant bounceback season with the Yankees in 2022 when he slashed .305/.412/.727 with 15 home runs in just 154 trips to the plate. A broken foot ended his season, but that eye-popping resurgence was still enough to land him a two-year, $12MM deal with the Padres last offseason.

Unfortunately for the Padres and Carpenter alike, his 2023 campaign looked more like the 2020-21 version of Carpenter who’d looked to be on the decline. In 237 plate appearances with the Friars last year, Carpenter hit just .176/.322/.319. He still walked at a massive 17.3% clip, but Carpenter’s strikeout rate spiked as his exit velocity and hard-hit rate trended in the other direction. The former Cardinals star’s newfound focus on elevating the ball at career-high levels served him well in 2022, but he perhaps took that too far in ’23, lifting 10 harmless pop-ups in his tiny sample of plate appearances. Given his huge walk and strikeout rates, Carpenter only put 125 balls in play last year — 10 of which were effectively automatic outs.

Now that he’s a free agent and can be signed on a league-minimum MLB deal or even on a minor league deal and spring training invite, Carpenter should draw interest from teams seeking left-handed bats. A return to that Herculean production from the summer of 2022 might not be plausible, but there’d be little to no risk for a new club trying to catch lightning in a bottle in the same manner as the 2022 Yankees did.

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Braves Plan To Trade Matt Carpenter

By Anthony Franco | December 15, 2023 at 10:11pm CDT

The Braves are planning to trade DH Matt Carpenter, report David O’Brien and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (X link). Atlanta acquired the left-handed hitter this evening in a salary-motivated swap with the Padres.

San Diego’s primary goal was offloading a portion of Carpenter’s $5.5MM salary. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reported that the Padres were kicking in $1.5MM to facilitate the trade. The Braves took on $4MM in salary and luxury tax obligations. The Friars saved $4MM in cash and $4.5MM against the competitive balance tax.

Carpenter’s CBT number was marginally higher for the Padres than it is for Atlanta. His two-year, $12MM deal with San Diego was front loaded, as he collected $6.5MM this year. That came with a $6MM tax hit as the contract’s average annual value, but a traded player’s CBT calculation for an acquiring team is recalculated based on how much they’re still owed at the time of the trade — in this case, $5.5MM for one year.

The point of the trade for Atlanta was to essentially “purchase” the rights to hard-throwing depth reliever Ray Kerr, whom San Diego included in the deal. As a second-year luxury tax payor in the second tier of penalization, the Braves are paying a 42% tax on the $4MM of Carpenter’s salary they assumed. The trade will cost them around $5.68MM altogether. Atlanta’s competitive balance tax number sits around $267MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. The third tier of penalization kicks in at $277MM.

Atlanta’s front office has somewhat curiously taken on a handful of underwater contracts as a means of adding talent at the bottom half of the roster. They almost immediately traded Marco Gonzales and Evan White after bringing them in alongside Jarred Kelenic. Catcher Max Stassi, whose contract was included in the David Fletcher trade, was promptly flipped to the White Sox. Carpenter appears next in line.

As was the case with Gonzales and Stassi, the Braves might have to pay Carpenter’s salary all the way or near the league minimum to find a taker. The veteran is coming off a .176/.322/.319 showing.

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Braves Acquire Matt Carpenter, Ray Kerr From Padres

By Darragh McDonald and Anthony Franco | December 15, 2023 at 7:12pm CDT

7:12pm: San Diego is including $1.5MM in cash, reports Dennis Lin of the Athletic (on X).

6:48pm: The Padres and Braves have agreed to a trade, per announcements from both clubs. Designated hitter Matt Carpenter, left-hander Ray Kerr and cash considerations are heading to Atlanta in exchange for minor league outfielder Drew Campbell.

Carpenter, 38, had a multi-year run of success with the Cardinals but his production dipped towards the end of the previous decade, to the point where he hit just .169/.305/.275  in 2021. He made a concerted effort to revamp his swing before 2022 and it seemed to work. He hit an astounding .305/.412/.727 for the Yankees in 2022, but in just 47 games before he fouled a ball off his foot and had his season ended by a fracture.

The Padres decided to bank on that bounceback, signing him to a two-year deal going into 2023. That guaranteed $12MM and allowed him to opt out after the first season.  He couldn’t keep that magic run with the Yankees going, as his time as a Padre resulted in a line of just .176/.322/.319. As a player who saw all of his time at either designated hitter or first base, the complete lack of offensive productivity put Carpenter on the fringe of the roster.

San Diego kept him on the roster all season. Carpenter made the easy decision to exercise his $5.5MM player option. That’s not an outrageous sum but clearly beyond what San Diego wanted to devote to a player on the bubble. The Friars have spent much of the offseason cutting payroll. It’s unclear how much of the Carpenter deal for which the Padres remain responsible after accounting for the cash considerations, but they’ll offload some portion of the money in exchange for sending Kerr to Atlanta.

A 29-year-old reliever, Kerr was acquired from Seattle as part of the Adam Frazier deal over the 2021-22 offseason. The 6’3″ southpaw has pitched in 29 MLB games over the past two seasons, most of which came this year. Kerr owns a 5.06 ERA in 32 innings, but he has shown a promising arsenal. He has punched out an above-average 28.1% of batters faced at the highest level. Kerr fanned 29% of opponents while pitching to a stellar 2.25 ERA in 36 Triple-A frames last season.

Kerr has atypical velocity for a left-hander. He averaged 96 MPH on his heater and a solid 82.5 MPH on a curveball in his MLB time this year. That resulted in an excellent 14.7% swinging strike percentage. He has never consistently harnessed that power stuff, however. Kerr walked nearly 10% of opponents in the majors and over 11% of batters faced in Triple-A. Over parts of six minor league seasons, he owns an 11.6% walk percentage.

With less than one year of major league service, Kerr is at least two years away from arbitration. He still has a minor league option remaining, so the Braves can keep him at Triple-A Gwinnett for another season. Kerr slots in behind A.J. Minter, recent trade pickup Aaron Bummer, Tyler Matzek and Dylan Lee on the lefty relief depth chart.

Atlanta has shown a willingness to take on part or all of other teams’ undesirable contracts to acquire players of interest. They took on money in the Marco Gonzales and Evan White deals to bring in Jarred Kelenic from Seattle. They subsequently offloaded Gonzales to the Pirates and flipped White to the Angels as part of a deal that brought in David Fletcher and the Max Stassi contract, which they subsequently paid down to deal the catcher to the White Sox.

It’s fair to wonder if they’ll look to move Carpenter as well. For now, he projects as a left-handed bench bat. Atlanta is in the the second tier of luxury penalization and will be second-time payors next year. They’ll therefore pay a 42% tax on whatever portion of the Carpenter contract they’re assuming.

San Diego also adds the 26-year-old Campbell. He was a 23rd round pick in 2019 out of Louisville. A left-handed hitter, Campbell posted a modest .254/.307/.404 slash in 300 plate appearances as a 25-year-old in Double-A. He can play all three outfield spots but spent more time in a corner this year. After going unselected in the Rule 5 draft, he’s likely to start the season in Triple-A.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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