Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Padres Rumors

MLBTR Poll: Reviewing The 2022-23 Free Agent Shortstop Class

By | at

Last offseason’s free agent class, while headlined by Yankees slugger Aaron Judge, is perhaps most notable for the quartet of free agent shortstops that stood near the top of the class: Trea Turner, who signed with the Phillies; Xander Bogaerts, who landed in San Diego; Carlos Correa, who returned to the Twins after physical issues scuttled deals in both San Francisco and Queens; and Dansby Swanson, who joined the Cubs. With the 2023 season all but complete and free agency nearly upon us once again, let’s take a look at the four shortstops, their performance in 2023, and their remaining contracts:

Trea Turner (Phillies)

Contract: 10 years, $272.72MM remaining covering age 31-40 seasons

Turner’s first season in Philadelphia was a difficult one for much of the year. After riding a hot stretch through the first week of the season, the next two months were nothing short of brutal as Turner slashed just .210/.259/.341 over his next 51 games. At that point in the season, the Phillies were the fourth-place team in the NL East with a disappointing 27-32 record. Of course, the team would turn things around from there, ultimately winning 90 games en route to a second consecutive NLCS appearance. As the Phillies improved, Turner followed suit, slashing a far stronger .288/.347/.517 the rest of the way. Those solid numbers are primarily thanks to Turner’s fantastic performance down the stretch this season; he slashed an incredible .317/.371/.629 in August and September. Turner’s success has continued into the postseason, as he’s slashed a whopping .500/.538/.917 during the Phillies’ postseason run to this point.

Taken together, Turner’s weak start to the season saw him post his worst campaign since 2018 as he slashed .266/.320/.459 with a 108 wRC+ while posting weak defensive metrics (-5 Outs Above Average, -12 Defensive Runs Saved). That being said, he still provided considerable value on the basepaths, going a perfect 30-for-30 in stolen base attempts, and his strong finish to the season could indicate that Turner can regain his offensive form of the previous three seasons (139 wRC+ 2020-2022). Turner’s 3.8 fWAR this season was the ninth-best mark among qualified shortstops in 2023.

Xander Bogaerts (Padres)

Contract: 10 years, $254.55MM remaining covering age 31-40 seasons

Like Turner, Bogaerts had an up-and-down start to his 2023 campaign. His first month in San Diego hardly could’ve gone better, as Bogaerts slashed .308/.400/.514 through the end of April, but a nagging wrist issue saw his production plummet in May, when he slashed just .200/.283/.263 in 25 games. From there, Bogaerts saw his production even out, as he slashed .300/.353/.462 from June 1 onward, allowing him to finish the season with stats largely in line with his consistent career numbers, even as the 82-80 Padres fell short of expectations. In 665 trips to the plate this season, Bogaerts slashed .285/.350/.440 with a wRC+ of 120. That performance is good for his sixth-consecutive season with a 120 wRC+ or better, and his eighth-consecutive full season with more than 3.0 fWAR. Defensive metrics were mixed on Bogaerts this season, as he posted a -4 DRS but a +3 OAA. Bogaerts’s 4.4 fWAR this season was the seventh-best mark among qualified shortstops in 2023.

Carlos Correa (Twins)

Contract: Five years, $166.67MM remaining covering age 29-33 seasons; four vesting options could take total to nine years, $236.67 remaining covering age 29-37 seasons

After failing physicals with both the Giants and the Mets this past offseason before returning to Minnesota, Correa saw his health remain a focal point throughout the 2023 campaign. Though he avoided the injured list for much of the year, both his offense and defense suffered as he battled plantar fasciitis for most of the season. Typically an above-average offensive threat and strong defender at shortstop, Correa posted the worst season of his career this year as he slashed just .230/.312/.399 (96 wRC+) while posting middling defensive metrics (+1 OAA, -2 DRS). That being said, after going on the injured list for the final weeks of the regular season, Correa impressed in the playoffs with a .409/.458/.545 slash line in six games as the Twins won their first postseason series since 2002. The injury marred campaign makes Correa difficult to project going forward, though as the youngest of the four top shortstops from last offseason’s class, he has youth on his side. Correa’s 1.1 fWAR this season was 17th among the 21 qualified shortstops in 2023.

Dansby Swanson (Cubs)

Contract: Six years, $163MM remaining covering age 30-35 seasons

Swanson’s first year in Chicago was a difficult one to predict, as the 29-year-old was coming off a career year in 2022 where he slashed a career-best .277/.329/.447 while posting elite defensive metrics. Ultimately, the bat fell back to Earth a bit in 2023 as Swanson slashed a solid but unexceptional .244/.328/.416 that was good for roughly league average (104 wRC+), while oscillating between considerable hot streaks (including a midsummer stretch where Swanson slugged .618 with nine home runs in 99 plate appearances) and equally significant cold stretches (including a .161/.254/.304 slash line in his final 14 games of the season). One thing that remained consistent throughout Swanson’s season, however, was his stellar defense. Swanson was the best defensive shortstop in baseball this year according to both DRS (+18) and OAA (+20), allowing him to post a strong 4.9 fWAR that was outstripped by only Corey Seager, Francisco Lindor, and Bobby Witt among qualified shortstops in 2023.

———————

So, one year in, which contract is looking the best to MLBTR readers? Turner remains an exciting talent on the basepaths and finished the season strong, but defensive miscues and his cold start to the season could be early signs of declining production. Bogaerts remained consistent as ever in all facets of the game, pairing solid offense with average defense, while Correa’s superstar potential took a backseat in an injury-marred season. Meanwhile, Swanson flashed incredible defense but was essentially league average on offense, as is consistent with his profile in recent years. Which player would you most like to have on your team in 2024 and beyond? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Yuki Matsui To Explore Signing With MLB Teams

By | at

Star closer Yuki Matsui looks to be interested in a potential move to Major League Baseball, as a Yahoo Japan report (Japanese language link) indicates that Matsui has exercised his international free agent rights, as well as his rights to freely negotiate with other Nippon Professional Baseball clubs.

Matsui doesn’t turn 28 until later this month, but he has already accumulated 10 seasons with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles.  As a result, the left-hander is a full free agent, and can be signed by MLB teams without an additional posting fee to the Eagles.  His age and experience also make him exempt from MLB’s international bonus pool structure.

It isn’t necessarily a sure thing that Matsui is headed to North America, as the Eagles are reportedly set to offer him a four-year contract worth $1.6 billion yen (roughly $10.7MM in USD) to remain in the fold.  However, Matsui has hired WME’s Bryan Minniti as an agent, which could hint that the southpaw is more interested in seeing what Major League teams have to offer.  Minniti has recently moved into the representation arena after a long front office career that included stints as an assistant GM with the Phillies, Diamondbacks, and Nationals.

At least nine Major League clubs have already scouted Matsui, including the Padres, Red Sox, Cubs, and Yankees.  It isn’t surprising that there is significant interest in a pitcher who is hitting the market at such a relatively young age, and who has already amassed such an impressive resume in Nippon Professional Baseball and on the international stage.  Matsui was a member of Japan’s championship team at the 2023 World Baseball Classic, though he only made one appearance during the tournament, throwing a scoreless inning.

Over 501 career games with the Eagles, Matsui has a 2.40 ERA and 236 saves, and the five-time NPB All-Star is the youngest player in league history to reach the 200-save threshold.  He has worked out of the bullpen for almost his entire career, except for his 2014 rookie season and during a brief return to rotation work during the pandemic-affected 2020 NPB season.  Matsui’s usage has also been somewhat impacted by the Eagles’ struggles, as the team has mostly posted mostly losing records during the southpaw’s tenure.  With a 10.9% walk rate over his career in Japan, control has occasionally been an issue for Matsui, though his 31.85% strikeout rate indicates that his ability to miss bats isn’t in question.

Readers of MLBTR’s NPB Players To Watch feature are quite familiar with Matsui’s name, as Dai Takegami Podziewski had frequently highlighted the closer throughout the 2023 season.  Matsui had a dominant 1.57 ERA over 57 1/3 innings for the Eagles this season, and Dai noted that Matsui made the splitter a much heavier part of his pitching arsenal, perhaps as a bit of a showcase for MLB evaluators.

However, Matsui’s small role in the WBC could have been due to reported difficulty he had throwing the WBC ball, which was larger than the standard ball used in NPB play and closer to the type of baseball used in the majors.  More broadly, Matsui has a relatively small frame (5’8″ and 167 pounds), so scouts may have concerns over how he might hold up over the long term, even if he has been pretty durable during his time with the Eagles.

This winter’s market for left-handed relievers has some interesting names, headlined by ace closer Josh Hader.  Matsui immediately becomes an intriguing new name in this group, as at least a candidate for high-leverage innings if perhaps not strictly a saves specialist.

West Notes: Moreno, Sánchez, Angels

By | at

Diamondbacks catcher Gabriel Moreno was removed from Game 3 of the NLCS in the fifth inning with a right hand contusion, the team confirmed. The D-backs will hope the injury doesn’t prove to be more serious.

Moreno was hit on the hand with a foul tip bunt, and while he initially remained in the game, he was replaced with a pinch hitter before his next at-bat. This is the second time Moreno has exited a game early this postseason, the first coming when he was hit in the head by Brice Turang’s backswing during the Wild Card round. Fortunately, that incident didn’t lead to a concussion, and the young catcher was back on the field for Arizona’s next game. He has played in all five of the Diamondbacks’ postseason matchups thus far.

The 23-year-old catcher is enjoying a breakout season, proving himself to be a strong defensive player and a capable hitter. He improved at the plate as the year went on, too, batting .313 with an .894 OPS after the All-Star break.

In other news from the West divisions…

  • Gary Sánchez is set to reach free agency after the World Series, but the Padres are reportedly interested in bringing him back, and the interest appears to be mutual, according to Dennis Lin of The Athletic. The 30-year-old had a difficult year at the plate in 2022, but he bounced back this season after the Padres claimed him on waivers in May. In 72 games with San Diego, he hit 19 home runs and posted a .792 OPS before a wrist fracture ended his season in early September.
  • Sarah Valenzuela of the Los Angeles Times named Angels infield coach Benji Gil as a potential managerial candidate, reporting that the Angels have expressed interest in him as their next manager. Valenzuela also included Buck Showalter on the list of candidates, although that comes as less of a revelation; the team’s interest in Showalter has already been widely reported. Gil has been a coach in the majors for the past two seasons, and he served as the manager for Team Mexico in the 2020 Summer Olympics and the 2023 World Baseball Classic.

Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

By | at

The Padres are on the shortlist for the league’s most disappointing team in 2023. They came up shy of the postseason despite a star-studded roster that entered the year with championship aspirations. They’ll make another run at competing next season, albeit with newfound payroll questions that suggest they’ll probably lose the presumptive NL Cy Young winner and their elite closer to free agency.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • Team holds two-year, $32MM option on RHP Nick Martinez; if club declines, Martinez holds two-year, $16MM player option
  • Team holds two-year, $32MM option on RHP Michael Wacha; if club declines, Wacha has respective $6.5MM, $6MM and $6MM player options through 2026
  • RHP Seth Lugo holds $7.5MM player option
  • DH Matt Carpenter holds $5.5MM player option

Other Financial Commitments

  • Owe $24.5MM to Red Sox through 2025 as condition of Eric Hosmer trade

2024 financial commitments (assuming Wacha/Lugo opt out, Carpenter/Martinez opt in): $134.76MM
Total future commitments (assuming Wacha/Lugo opt out, Carpenter/Martinez opt in): $1.232 billion

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Hill, Nola, Morejón

Free Agents

A late-September tear against mostly bad teams nudged the Padres past .500. That’s no consolation for a club that entered the year as co-favorites in the NL West alongside the Dodgers and a trendy World Series pick. San Diego had bolstered last year’s NLCS squad with another massive contract, signing Xander Bogaerts for 11 years and $280MM. With Fernando Tatis Jr. returning from last year’s wrist surgery/PED suspension, everything was supposed to come together in 2023.

If the team ever really clicked, it didn’t happen until they were buried in the standings. As was the case two years ago, the Padres’ disappointing finish came with reports of internal strife. In 2021, clubhouse discord contributed to San Diego’s decision to dismiss manager Jayce Tingler. This year, reports from The Athletic and the San Diego Union-Tribune cast renewed questions about the locker room — with a reported rift between president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and second-year manager Bob Melvin drawing the most attention.

As the season wound down, there was some question about whether the Preller – Melvin relationship had become untenable. Ownership clearly doesn’t believe that to be the case. After an end-of-season meeting between Preller, Melvin and chairman Peter Seidler, the parties agreed to keep the leadership structure in place. Seidler released a statement expressing his “full support” for that duo; Preller confirmed two days later that Melvin is “going to be (the) manager going forward.”

There could be far more turnover with the roster itself. Kevin Acee of the Union-Tribune reported last month that the Friars were shooting for a player payroll in the $200MM range for next season, pointing to a need to comply with MLB’s debt service ratio. That’d likely keep them in the upper third of the league but represents a notable cut. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Friars finished this season with a payroll just under $250MM and had an estimated luxury tax number near the $293MM final penalization threshold.

That’ll make things difficult for Preller and his front office as they try to more effectively balance the roster. San Diego’s player spending is a little more manageable than fans might expect given their repeated top-of-the-market strikes. Machado ($13MM) and Tatis ($11MM) are playing on relatively light salaries as part of backloaded extensions. (Machado is also owed a $10MM signing bonus this December 1, although it’s not clear if the Padres consider that part of their approximate $200MM calculus for next season.) The Friars’ 11-year commitment to Bogaerts meant his annual salary is a fairly palatable $25MM.

San Diego’s payroll opening the offseason will be defined by a handful of upcoming options decisions. Matt Carpenter is going to exercise a $5.5MM player provision; Seth Lugo will decline a $7.5MM option in search of a multi-year deal.

The Friars have matching two-year options at $16MM annually on Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez. Given their reported payroll situation, it seems likely they’ll decline their end of both provisions. It’s not an unreasonable amount for Wacha in isolation, but it’d be harder to justify if San Diego has somewhat limited spending room. Wacha would subsequently decline the first of three player options valued in the $6-6.5MM range; Martinez would have a two-year option at $8MM annually that’ll be an interesting call.

If Carpenter and Martinez opt in while Wacha and Lugo test free agency, the Padres’ 2024 salary commitments would check in around $135MM (not counting Machado’s bonus but including the $12+MM they’re sending to the Red Sox on the Eric Hosmer deal). That doesn’t account for a massive arbitration class. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a record-setting $33MM salary for Juan Soto in his final season of eligibility. Scott Barlow and Trent Grisham are projected at a combined $12MM. That puts the organization at roughly $180MM before considering outside additions. Unless plans of payroll cuts are dramatically overstated, they’re not likely to make a legitimate run at Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger or Yoshinobu Yamamoto the way they might have in previous offseasons.

Given that financial picture, it’s natural that opposing fanbases have speculated about the possibility of a second blockbuster Soto trade in as many years. San Diego doesn’t have to move him. It’s possible to accommodate a $200MM payroll with their existing commitments and Soto’s projected salary. Doing so would require an austere offseason, though, potentially paired with a trade of another notable but less impactful player or two. San Diego hasn’t suggested any plans to shop Soto but hasn’t taken a trade off the table either.

With one season of remaining control, Soto’s trade value is markedly lower than it was at the 2022 deadline. The Padres wouldn’t get near the level of talent — five young players headlined by MacKenzie Gore, James Wood and CJ Abrams — which they sent to the Nationals to acquire him.

The Mookie Betts deal is the most obvious precedent for a superstar traded before his final arbitration season. The Red Sox received five years of club control on a solid regular (Alex Verdugo), a borderline Top 100 prospect (Jeter Downs) and a mid-level prospect (Connor Wong) while also offloading around $48MM on the David Price contract. The deal didn’t work out for Boston. Verdugo never developed into more than a solid player, while Downs barely reached the majors. Yet it’s a general benchmark for the Padres if they were to consider moving Soto. They presumably wouldn’t also attach an underwater contract, so topping a package headlined by two highly-regarded but not elite controllable talents should be viable.

It’s arguable whether that’s preferable to simply keeping Soto for his final arbitration season. The Padres would get one more year in which he anchors the lineup. They could deal him at the deadline if they’re again underperforming, while he’d clearly receive the qualifying offer next offseason if they kept him on the roster. Even if they don’t anticipate re-signing him — Preller unsurprisingly suggested they’ll reengage with Soto’s reps at the Boras Corporation this winter — a trade isn’t inevitable.

Keeping Soto would limit their flexibility elsewhere on the roster. San Diego has arguably the best group of impending free agents of any team. Blake Snell is likely to be named NL Cy Young a couple days before hitting the market. Josh Hader has a good chance of topping the $102MM contract record for relievers which Edwin Díaz established last winter.

Even with their payroll questions, the Padres will obviously make a qualifying offer to each of Snell and Hader. There’s no chance either player accepts a one-year deal, which would entitle San Diego to modest compensation in next year’s draft. As a luxury tax payor, the Friars would receive a pick between the fourth and fifth round for each player if they sign elsewhere.

Watching both depart appears likely. The Padres seemed to preemptively prepare for Hader’s departure last offseason with a stunning five-year, $46MM commitment to Robert Suarez. Between the hard-throwing righty and the trade deadline acquisition of Barlow, they’ll have options for the ninth inning. While losing Hader would be a huge blow to any bullpen, the Padres should have other priorities.

None is bigger than the rotation. San Diego’s starting staff somewhat quietly led the majors in ERA and finished fifth in strikeout rate. That’s in large part thanks to their impending free agents, who were arguably their three top starters. Snell was utterly dominant from June onwards. Wacha (3.22) and Lugo (3.57) each turned in sub-4.00 ERA showings over 130+ frames. Lugo would be a realistic qualifying offer candidate if the Padres were operating at their typical spending capacity. Given the expected constraints, the chance he accepts a one-year offer worth around $20.5MM and the mid-round pick they’d receive if he walks, they’ll probably opt not to make the offer.

Those possible departures leave the Friars with only two locks for the starting staff. Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish ended this season on the injured list. They’re expected to be ready for Spring Training. If Martinez returns, he could have a clearer rotation opportunity than he’s had in the last two years, when he has spent most of his time as a multi-inning reliever. The Padres have the option to retain Wacha, although a $16MM salary is probably too much of a commitment to lock in before free agency even gets underway. Neither Pedro Avila nor Matt Waldron pitched well enough to secure a spot in the Opening Day five.

The Padres need to bring in two or three starters. Options toward the lower tiers of free agency include Michael Lorenzen, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, James Paxton, Martín Pérez and Hyun Jin Ryu. Luis Severino is a candidate for a one-year pillow contract. Swingman Jakob Junis could market himself as a starter in search of a two-year deal in the range of what the Friars offered Lugo last winter. The Padres have been aggressive in targeting players from Asian professional leagues. Perhaps they’ll inquire on former Nationals righty Erick Fedde, who turned in a 2.13 ERA over 28 starts in his first season in South Korea.

They’ll likely bring in at least one arm via trade. Paul Blackburn, Spencer Turnbull, Adrian Houser and Cal Quantrill are among affordable arbitration-eligible hurlers who could be attainable. None of those pitchers would cost an immense prospect return. San Diego still has a few names at the top of the farm system (e.g. Ethan Salas, Jackson Merrill, Robby Snelling) whom they could ostensibly dangle if an impact starter with multiple seasons of club control (perhaps Logan Gilbert or Dylan Cease) came available.

San Diego could also deal off the big league team to find more balance on the roster. Barlow’s $7.1MM projected salary makes him a possible candidate, although it’d leave the Padres with very little in the way of setup options to pave the way to Suarez. Grisham is projected at just under $5MM and down to two seasons of control. He’s an excellent defensive center fielder but a .191/.300/.347 hitter since the start of 2022.

Given how well Tatis acclimated to right field defensively, the Friars could consider moving him to center and shopping Grisham. They’d have to bring in another corner bat opposite Soto at that point. It’s not a robust free agent class for hitters. Ramón Laureano, Harold Ramírez and Dylan Carlson are among the trade possibilities if the Padres wanted to search for more offensive upside than Grisham provides without taking on notable salary. Were the Padres to move Soto, they’d have to take a bigger swing in the outfield — whether a trade candidate like Anthony Santander or a free agent pursuit of KBO star Jung Hoo Lee.

Their last pursuit of a hitter from South Korea worked out excellently. Ha-Seong Kim is headed into the final season of a four-year, $28MM free agent deal. He’s a plus defender who can move around the infield and has hit .256/.338/.391 over the last two years. Kim would be an in-demand trade candidate if San Diego made him available. Between his affordability and a dreadful free agent class for middle infielders, Kim would be the Padres’ most desirable realistic trade candidate aside from Soto.

Dealing Kim would open up second base for Jake Cronenworth, who is miscast at first. Yet it’d also subtract one of the Padres’ best position players without clearing a huge chunk of payroll space. While Preller and his staff probably won’t foreclose the possibility entirely, the price would be high.

If they hold Kim, he’d likely return to the keystone. Machado and Bogaerts are the presumptive left side infield. Machado could be delayed early in the season as he recovers from elbow surgery, but he’s expected back early enough in the season the Padres don’t have to worry about the hot corner. Bogaerts recent conceded he might not be much longer for shortstop (link via Kevin Acee of the Union-Tribune). That raises the possibility of a position swap for Bogaerts and Kim but doesn’t materially change the infield construction.

The Padres should bring in some more offensive punch for the first base/DH mix. Last winter’s signings of Carpenter and Nelson Cruz didn’t pan out, nor did deadline acquisitions of Ji Man Choi and Garrett Cooper. With the latter two headed for free agency, the Padres should take another swing at first base. Brandon Belt could be a free agent target, while Rowdy Tellez is a non-tender possibility. Adding a bat-first player would deepen the bench while freeing Cronenworth for a multi-position role.

If the Padres were to take a bigger free agent swing, Mitch Garver would be a strong on-paper fit. The Ranger slugger is a primary DH who can catch on occasion. The Padres will likely bring in a complement to Luis Campusano behind the dish while non-tendering Austin Nola. If Garver proves too expensive and/or receives a qualifying offer from Texas, Tom Murphy could be an affordable “Garver-lite” free agent target.

San Diego has one of the wider-open outlooks for any team. They’re likely to lose a couple marquee free agents but still have plenty of star talent at the top of the roster. They’re certainly not about to rebuild. Yet next year’s roster could look quite different from the 2023 version, especially on the pitching staff. The Padres have been one of the sport’s most unpredictable teams throughout Preller’s tenure. That’s not going to change this year.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Padres-specific chat on 10-11-23. Click here to view the transcript.

MLBTR Poll: San Diego’s Juan Soto Decision

By | at

Just over fourteen months ago, the Padres shook the baseball world at the 2022 trade deadline by dealing a package of prospects and young players to the Nationals in exchange for superstar outfielder Juan Soto (alongside first baseman Josh Bell). The addition of Soto gave San Diego a young, elite talent to replace Fernando Tatis Jr. for the remainder of the season as the club sought its first full-season postseason berth since 2006 before pairing the two up in the outfield in 2023 and beyond.

Soto fulfilled his end of the bargain, posting a 131 wRC+ in 228 trips to the plate down the stretch for the Padres before slashing .222/.333/.611 in the NLCS as the club fell to the Phillies in five games last year. He went on to post what has become a typical season by his standards in 2023: the 24-year-old phenom slashed a strong .275/.410/.519 (155 wRC+) while clubbing 35 home runs, recording more walks than strikeouts and playing in all 162 games for the Padres en route to his third consecutive All Star appearance. Unfortunately, the rest of the club was unable to keep up with him this season, as the Padres finished with an 82-80 record, spending most of the season under .500 and never leading the NL West despite lofty preseason expectations.

The club’s brutal 2023 campaign seems to be spurring changes for the club going forward, as reports have indicated the club is planning to cut payroll from this year’s $255MM figure to around $200MM this offseason. Such a steep cut in payroll, of course, has caused speculation about how the Padres could hope to improve a roster that figures to lose Josh Hader and Blake Snell to free agency this winter. With MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projecting Soto to make a whopping $33MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility, it’s easy to see why many around the baseball world expect the club to entertain offers on the superstar this offseason.

After all, saving over $30MM on Soto’s salary could allow the club to supplement other areas of need on the roster within their newfound payroll constraints, to say nothing of the possibility that the Soto return could include big league ready pieces who could help supplement the 2024 roster themselves. As talented as Soto is, it’s at least conceivable that the club could improve for the future while minimizing the hit to their overall competitiveness next season if they make savvy additions to counterbalance the hypothetical loss of their star slugger.

The other side of that argument is simple: a Soto trade would almost assuredly downgrade the 2024 team. Even as the Padres stand to lose Snell and Hader in free agency, the club has several aging players on long-term deals. Players like Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Joe Musgrove, and especially Yu Darvish aren’t getting any younger, and there’s an argument to be made that sacrificing the present for the future to any degree is a mistake given the club’s aging core of expensive stars even as San Diego sports the sport’s 11th best farm system, per Fangraphs.

It’s also worth noting how the Padres lost in 2023. While their 82-80 record certainly left something to be desired, they posted the eighth-best run differential in baseball and the third-best figure in the National League behind only 100-win juggernauts in Atlanta and LA. The club’s Pythagorean record in 2023 was a far more palatable 92-70, with a similar 91-71 expected record according to BaseRuns. Championships aren’t won through projected standings, of course, but when looking ahead to 2024 it’s certainly fair to wonder if a very similar Padres team could achieve much better results with more fortune in extra innings (2-12) and one-run games (10-28). Holding onto Soto wouldn’t even necessarily preclude the club from dealing him later, as the Padres could always trade him at the 2024 deadline if they fall out of contention early in the year.

All that said, the dream scenario for Padres fans involves neither the club trading Soto nor him walking in free agency next offseason. Ideally, San Diego would surely prefer to extend their superstar and keep him in the outfield alongside Tatis for the next decade or longer. That may be easier said than done, of course, as Soto infamously rejected a $440MM extension offer from the Nationals prior to his trade to San Diego. The sort of megadeal that would be required to retain Soto figures to be hard to stomach for most clubs, but perhaps especially one like the Padres that, in addition to their desire to cut payroll this offseason, already has over $100MM on the books every year for the rest of the decade.

Unlikely as an extension may seem on paper, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has proven time and time again that his front office shouldn’t be counted out regarding major trades, free agent signings, and especially extensions if an opportunity to improve the club arises. Preller figures to weigh all these factors and more when deciding an approach regarding Soto this offseason. In his end-of-season press conference, Preller indicated that he plans to discuss a possible extension with Soto during the offseason but nonetheless did not rule out a trade of the young superstar this winter, leaving the door open for San Diego to take a variety of approaches over the next few months.

What path do MLBTR readers think Preller and the Padres should take regarding Soto this offseason? They could make every effort to extend him while looking to cut payroll elsewhere, trade him for pieces that could help extend the club’s current window of contention, or simply stick with him through his final year of arbitration and re-evaluate things at the trade deadline next summer. Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

29 Players Elect Free Agency

By | at

October brings postseason play for a handful of teams and their fanbases. Just over two-thirds of the league is now in offseason mode after being eliminated, however. As the season comes to a close, a number of veterans will hit minor league free agency.

These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.

Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR. The first group, courtesy of the transaction tracker at MiLB.com:

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Pitchers

A.J. Preller Discusses Bob Melvin, Juan Soto

By | at

Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller addressed members of the media on Wednesday (including AJ Cassavell of MLB.com) to discuss his team’s disappointing performance in 2023 and what to expect from the offseason ahead. He confirmed that he will remain the club’s chief baseball executive going forward, and likewise, skipper Bob Melvin will remain at the helm in 2024. Preller also touched on the Padres’ farm system, a potential addition to the front office, and the possibility of an extension for superstar Juan Soto.

Considering that the Padres vastly underperformed this past season, it’s no surprise Preller and Melvin were on the hot seat. San Diego reached the NLCS in 2022, yet after a busy offseason in which the team spent over $400MM in free agency, they barely finished above .500 this year, falling two games shy of a postseason berth. The president of baseball ops didn’t deny how frustrating the 2023 season was, but he didn’t blame his manager for everything that went wrong. This comes two days after Padres chairman Peter Seidler expressed his complete support for the leaders running his team.

Said Preller, “Bob is our manager, and he’s going to be our manager going forward,” leaving no room for doubt that Melvin’s job is secure. However, the executive wouldn’t broach the subject of an extension – the manager is only under contract for one more year – instead emphasizing that both he and Melvin are focused on improving the current roster and getting the Padres back to the postseason in 2024. “Next year is going to be a different year,” he explained. “A different team, different players.”

While there won’t be a different manager or a different president of baseball operations, Preller said he has thought about possibly hiring a general manager. He has technically held both titles since he was promoted ahead of the 2021 season, but it has become quite common for teams to have a separate president of baseball ops and GM. Preller wouldn’t commit to making a hire, but he said he’d be open to adding a new executive “that brings different experiences” to the front office.

On the topic of reinforcements, Preller also addressed San Diego’s farm system, expressing confidence in the cohort of young players approaching the upper levels of the minors. He believes the team has several prospects who could make an impact sooner or later, especially as added depth. His remarks weren’t particularly revealing, but they were encouraging, given the sheer number of prospects the Padres have given up in recent trades, along with the draft picks they’ve lost by signing top free agents.

The executive wasn’t quite as confident about Juan Soto’s long-term future with the Padres. While he said his first move will be to discuss an extension with the three-time All-Star, he didn’t deny the possibility of trading the lefty slugger instead. “We’ve never been a group that says no to anything,” Preller explained. “I wouldn’t read into that. That’s just kind of the way we operate.” His comments suggest that no trade is imminent, but by not shutting down the question, he left the potentiality on the table.

Manny Machado Undergoes Elbow Surgery

By | at

Veteran third baseman Manny Machado underwent surgery to repair the extensor tendon in his right elbow today, the Padres announced. Dr. Neal ElAttrache performed the procedure. Machado’s timeline for recovery is estimated to be between four and six months, the early end of which would allow him to be ready in time for Spring Training while the later end would have him ready to return to shortly after Opening Day, though of course he could still need to build up from there in the event he misses Spring Training. The news was hardly a surprise, as Machado himself had previously indicated that elbow surgery was in his future.

It was a relative down season for Machado, 30, who slashed .258/.319/.462 with a wRC+ of 114 in 601 trips to the plate this season. After a standout 2022 that saw him accumulate a whopping 7.5 fWAR and finish second to Paul Goldschmidt in NL MVP voting, Machado was widely expected to opt-out of his contract this offseason and test the open market. Rather than risk that eventuality, the Padres opted to extend him through the 2033 campaign, adding an additional five years and $170MM to the six years and $180MM already guaranteed to him in his original deal.

Now, Machado will run the risk of entering the first season of his new megadeal in San Diego on the injured list. The club is already expected to cut payroll by around $50MM on the heels of a disappointing 82-80 season, and with uncertainty regarding their franchise third baseman, the club will have to do more with less in replacing Machado’s production for the first part of the season, in addition to returning or replacing pending free agent stars Blake Snell and Josh Hader.

Fortunately, that might be easier to do than one might expect. Though the club relied on depth options like Matthew Batten and Eguy Rosario down the stretch this season in Machado’s absence, the Padres figure to boast a deep group of infield options in 2024 even assuming the club prefers to keep Fernando Tatis Jr. in the outfield rather than move him back onto the dirt. With Xander Bogaerts entrenched at shortstop and utility infielder Ha-Seong Kim more than capable of sliding over to cover third base while Machado is unavailable, Jake Cronenworth could temporarily return to his natural position of second base after spending most of the 2023 campaign at first. That would open first base up for an external acquisition, a hypothetical return for deadline acquisition Garrett Cooper, or even veteran slugger Matt Carpenter, who struggled in 76 games this year but holds a $5.5MM player option for the 2024 campaign.

Padres Chairman Peter Seidler: “Current Leadership Continues To Have My Full Support”

By | at

The Padres release a statement from chairman Peter Seidler this morning, seemingly offering a vote of confidence for president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and manager Bob Melvin, though neither was mentioned by name.

“We entered 2023 with expectations that we would build on last year’s NLCS appearance and contend for a World Series Championship. We fell short of that goal,” the statement reads, “The Padres organization will learn from this season and emerge in 2024 with the pieces in place to compete for San Diego’s first World Series title. Our current leadership team has my full support, and I have asked them to perform a thorough assessment of our organization, beginning today. We will make the changes necessary to play championship-caliber baseball for our extraordinary fans in 2024.”

The statement largely tracks with previous reporting, which indicated not only Seidler’s preference to retain both Melvin and Preller in 2024, but also that the club would be undergoing an internal review. Importantly, despite the seeming vote of confidence for the duo, the statement does not guarantee their return for the 2024 season, instead noting that the club plans to “make the changes necessary” to return to the postseason next year. After all, reports of philosophical differences that lead to the personal relationship between the Padres’ manager and GM fraying are well documented. Melvin is under contract through the end of the 2024 season, while Preller is signed through the end of the 2026 season.

Whoever is at the helm of the Padres next season, they’ll have a difficult task set before them as they look to improve the club’s roster following an 82-80 season. Shutdown closer Josh Hader and NL Cy Young award candidate Blake Snell are both poised to depart the club for free agency this offseason, and the club is reportedly looking to trim payroll down to $200MM for next season. While RosterResource indicates the club’s payroll in 2024 stands at just over $128MM at this point, that figure doesn’t include arbitration-level contracts for players like Juan Soto, Scott Barlow, and Trent Grisham, among others.

Those arbitration-level contracts could approach $50MM or more this offseason, with Soto alone expected to get a significant raise on his $23MM salary in 2023. That leaves the club with minimal space to take on additional financial commitments despite significant holes to fill in the rotation and bullpen, not to mention the need to deepen a position player group that suffered from an extremely thin bench throughout the season.

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

hide arrows scroll to top