Cardinals Rumors

Mozeliak On Cards’ Offseason Needs

By Jeff Todd | October 5, 2016 at 10:00am CDT

Cardinals GM John Mozeliak spoke about several notable topics impacting the team in an interview with 101sports.com. You can find audio of the full chat at the link, but here are some of the highlights:

Generally, Mozeliak said that he is “still sort of reflecting on our past year,” which just ended a hair shy of qualifying for a sixth-straight postseason. That means that he doesn’t quite yet have a clear picture of how the club will tackle the winter to come. “I’m still sort of reflecting on our past year and I haven’t necessarily set out our offseason strategy,” says Mozeliak.

That being said, the veteran executive obviously has a good idea of where the needs will be. The rotation, in particular, suffered a significant fall-off in 2016. Mozeliak suggests that he sees room for more from veterans Adam Wainwright and Mike Leake, though he notes that’s hardly a sure thing. Michael Wacha remains a bit of a wild card, too, while the club sees reason for optimism in Carlos Martinez and Alex Reyes. With Lance Lynn returning to join a list of possibilities that also includes Luke Weaver, Marco Gonzales (if he makes it back), Tim Cooney and others, Mozeliak says he hopes to “have the depth we thought we were going to have a year ago,” though he notes “that just means maybe something else is going to go wrong.”

Notably absent from that list of hurlers? Lefty Jaime Garcia. The club is reportedly still weighing whether to pick up his option, though Mozeliak’s comments seemed to throw some doubt on the idea that he’d be with the organization in 2017.

“What we’ll do is spend the next two to three weeks sorting through our roster and getting a feel for what we think makes the most sense for us,” Mozeliak said when asked about Garcia. “I just went through our rotation and I didn’t mention Jaime because I think, given how he finished, it’s going to be tough for him to fit in there. But I also would say last year when we were sitting here talking, I thought we were going to have Lance Lynn and then two weeks later he ends up having Tommy John. So you just never know.”

Of course, even if Garcia doesn’t end up with the Redbirds, he could have his option exercised and then be traded. Mozeliak also says he won’t hesitate to trade young players to drive improvement, though he suggests that he won’t overreact after just missing the playoffs.

“You can’t always react to just today’s needs,” says Mozeliak. “When you’re looking to build long term success you damn well better be keeping some assets in your system. I think, historically, we’ve proven right on that with that strategy. We’re not going to deviate.”

Otherwise, the organization has already stated an intention to improve defensively, and Mozeliak adds that he’d like to see the team become “a little bit more aggressive on the basepaths.” For the former, he notes that getting Kolten Wong more time at second base and “trying to find a consistent position for Matt Carpenter” would help with the infield, while the team has to figure out a center field solution.

Reading between the lines a bit, since Jedd Gyorko and Aledmys Diaz seem all but certain to command significant playing time, it’s fair to wonder where this assessment leaves Jhonny Peralta. He could conceivably share time at first or end up on the trade block. It also certainly seems as if the center field spot could be filled from the outside, with Randal Grichuk sliding over to a corner role. Perhaps there’s also a way the club can address the baserunning issue through a new up-the-middle performer; Mozeliak notes that he’s interested in “trying to get a little smaller on the basepaths, trying to add a little speed to this team,” and this may be the spot to target to find such a skillset.

Certainly, speed and defense are not the calling cards of slugger Brandon Moss, though defensive metrics rated him surprisingly well in the outfield in limited time there this season. Mozeliak says that the overall results from Moss were good, and praised his work in the clubhouse, but added that it was tough to deal with his lengthy slumps. Ultimately, there’s interest in bringing him back, says Mozelik, “but it’s going to be at what price?”

Cardinals, Carlos Martinez Interested In Extension

By Connor Byrne | October 4, 2016 at 10:21pm CDT

The Cardinals and right-hander Carlos Martinez have mutual interest in a contract extension, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The two sides plan to discuss a deal in the coming months and could reach an agreement by next season, per Goold, who notes that the Cardinals have previously signed the likes of Adam Wainwright, Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina and Kolten Wong to extensions during spring training.

Martinez is currently on track to make his first trip through arbitration during the offseason, which means the Cardinals’ days of paying him a relative pittance are over. As a result, there’s less incentive for him to sign a team-friendly extension. He’ll also be eligible for arbitration after the next two seasons and is scheduled to become a free agent at the end of the 2019 campaign.A long-term deal would require the Cardinals to buy out free agent years for Martinez, thereby increasing his price tag.

The Cardinals signed Martinez as an international free agent from the Dominican Republic in 2010, and after spending a couple seasons as primarily a reliever in the majors, the 25-year-old served as a front-line starter over the past two campaigns. Martinez logged a 3.04 ERA, 8.02 K/9, 3.23 BB/9 and 56.4 percent ground-ball rate over a career-high 195 1/3 innings in 2016, and he was similarly effective last year. In 2015, his first season as a full-time starter, Martinez earned an All-Star nod and posted a 3.01 ERA and 54.5 percent ground rate to complement a 9.22 K/9 and 3.13 BB/9 in 179 2/3 frames. Wins also matter to arbitrators and agents, and Martinez has racked up 30 victories against just 16 losses since last season.

Among starters who have signed extensions over the past year-plus, the Indians’ Corey Kluber is a potential comparable for Martinez solely in terms of production. Kluber was entering his age-29 season at the time (April 2015) and still hadn’t reached arbitration eligibility, but his output from 2013-14 was similar to Martinez’s from 2015-16. In the two years before his extension, Kluber went 29-14 with a 2.98 ERA and 9.52 K/9 against 1.97 BB/9 over 383 innings. That led to a five-year extension worth $38.5MM in guarantees. As a younger starter who’s closer to free agency than Kluber was, Martinez could certainly have a case for a richer deal.

Cardinals Still Weighing Jaime Garcia’s Option; “Floated” Him In Trade Talks This Summer

By Jeff Todd | October 4, 2016 at 9:43am CDT

The Cardinals are still debating whether to pick up the $12MM club option over southpaw Jaime Garcia, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. St. Louis would need to pay a $500K buyout if it declines.

Garcia, 30, just made thirty starts for only the second time in his career, representing a highly promising return to health for a pitcher who has battled shoulder problems. But his results fell well shy of his established benchmark. Between his first full season in the majors through last season (i.e., 2010-2015), Garcia compiled a 3.25 ERA over 708 1/3 innings.

In his 171 2/3 frames in 2016, Garcia ended up allowing 4.67 earned runs per nine. His peripherals weren’t that far off of his career norms — 7.9 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 were both on the high side of his typical range, while his strong 56.7% groundball rate was nearly an exact match for his lifetime average.

Really, Garcia suffered most from an elevated home run susceptibility. He was touched for dingers on over one of five flyballs put in play against him, with opposing hitters launching 1.36 per nine. Whether he can pare back the long balls may be the biggest question remaining. Ultimately, ERA estimators suggest that his down year occurred at least in part due to some poor fortune (4.49 FIP; 3.77 xFIP; 3.93 SIERA.)

In terms of the underlying physical tools, there are indications that Garcia has continued to adapt with a shoulder that will probably never be fully normal. His release point continues to drift (see here and here), with his breaking balls showing marked changes in behavior as well as some inconsistencies. With those changes, Garcia’s typically double-digit swinging strike rate has resided just below that level (9.2%) for each of the last two years. On the other hand, his average fastball velocity is better than ever.

Garcia acknowledged that some of his struggles may be related to his efforts to stay ahead of the shoulder problems that have plagued him for so long. “I got caught up so much in being healthy and working hard to stay healthy that sometimes mechanics took a hit,” he said. But he says he’s glad to have ended the year on an uptick, proclaiming: “I found it now. … I know the kind of pitcher I am.”

All told, it seems hard to imagine that the Cards will punt Garcia onto an open market that is starved for arms. There’s certainly an argument to be made that it would be unwise to sacrifice the depth after a season in which Lance Lynn, Marco Gonzales, and Michael Wacha were among the club’s hurlers who dealt with varying degrees of injury problems.

If anything, a trade would seem the more likely scenario. According to Goold, St. Louis “floated” Garcia’s name over the summer to assess his value. Whether or not there was ever serious consideration of moving him in 2016, that could become an option this offseason. As Goold explains it, promising the $12MM payday to Garcia “would give Mozeliak control of an asset for 2017 and pitching depth that he could use in deals even into spring training.”

Matt Holliday To Continue Playing In 2017

By charliewilmoth | October 1, 2016 at 11:31am CDT

Cardinals outfielder Matt Holliday plans to play in 2017 despite the team’s recent decision to decline his option, Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com tweets. “I have a lot of good baseball left in me,” he says. He adds, however, that he doubts he will return to St. Louis, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets.

The Cardinals recently made clear that they would pay Holliday a $1M buyout rather than paying him $17MM next season. Holliday then issued a statement in which he thanked the Cardinals organization but did not indicate whether he would continue playing.

Holliday returned from a thumb injury to hit a pinch-hit homer against the Pirates yesterday, but he’s otherwise had a modestly disappointing season, batting .244/.320/.459 in 425 plate appearances — a decent enough line for most hitters, but perhaps not for one with limited defensive and baserunning value. Nonetheless, as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd pointed out yesterday, the 36-year-old Holliday should still attract interest on the free agent market, perhaps from an AL team hoping to have him occupy the DH spot at least part of the time. He remains a productive hitter, and his career .303/.382/.515 line and solid clubhouse reputation should make him a desirable target for a team hoping to bolster its lineup.

Cardinals Will Decline Matt Holliday’s 2017 Option

By Jeff Todd | September 30, 2016 at 5:38pm CDT

5:53pm: Holliday has issued a statement thanking the organization, his teammates, and the fans for his time with the Cards, via MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch. He, too, kept the door cracked for a return but acknowledged that this could be the end of his tenure. (The statement, notably, does not seem to indicate whether or not Holliday has decided whether he’ll continue playing.)

“It has been an honor to play in front of such great fans and for such an historic organization,” says Holliday. “I can honestly say it has been a dream come true. While I’m disappointed this could be it here in St. Louis, I understand that it might be time to move on.”

5:38pm: The Cardinals anticipate declining the club’s 2017 option over outfielder Matt Holliday, per GM John Mozeliak, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch was among those to report. (Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball noted earlier this week that the Cardinals do not plan to pick up the option.) Holliday will, however, be activated from the DL in the hopes that he can make at least one final appearance before the St. Louis faithful.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that Holliday won’t return, of course, but it’s not really known whether there’s serious interest on either side in negotiating a new contract. That the team appears to be giving the long-time star a sendoff suggests the sides could be preparing for a split, but GM John Mozeliak wasn’t willing to rule out a continuation of what has been a productive relationship.

“Speaking in absolutes and saying there’s no chance of him coming back — I’m not prepared to do that,” said Mozeliak. “We haven’t had our offseason meetings.”

Ulimately, the Cards were never particularly likely to pick up the option for the veteran’s age-37 season at a heavy $17MM salary. But the decision to pay a $1MM buyout instead became clear given Holliday’s middling output and injury troubles down the stretch.

Holliday remains an above-average hitter, though his .242/.318/.450 batting line represents a rather stark falloff in overall productivity from the consistently excellent batting results he logged for most of a dozen prior seasons. With poorly-rated fielding and baserunning added to the uncertainty at the plate, the cost was just too great.

Still, there’s plenty of reason to think that Holliday could remain a useful player — even if a trip to the American League, with frequent or even full-time DH usage, makes the most sense at this stage. Odds are that there would be plenty of organizations with at least some interest in that kind of arrangement, particularly given the high regard in which Holliday is held around baseball.

For the Cards, who say they’re looking to improve on defense, Holliday is something of an odd fit moving forward. If he is willing to accept a reduced role, he might still remain a plenty useful piece by sharing time at first base, appearing occasionally in the corner outfield, and otherwise functioning as a bench bat. But regular playing time probably won’t be on the table, as the team seems lined up to add a replacement or instead to acquire a new center fielder while bumping Randal Grichuk to the corner.

It has been something of an odd final two seasons in St. Louis for Holliday. Both have been limited by injuries, and both have involved very different types of performance issues. Last year, his power disappeared, but he was able to maintain a robust .394 OBP. That mark fell by 76 points in 2016, but he significantly upped his power output (.450 slugging, 19 home runs).

No matter where things go from here, it has been a great run for Holliday with the Cards. In eight years and over 4,000 plate appearances, Holliday carries an outstanding .292/.379/.493 batting line with 155 long balls. Ultimately, he was worth every penny of the seven-year, $120MM contract he signed before the 2010 season.

Cardinals Expect To Retain Mike Matheny For 2017

By Jeff Todd | September 28, 2016 at 12:13pm CDT

Cardinals owner Bill DeWitt Jr. says that skipper Mike Matheny will remain at the club’s helm next year, as Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. Matheny’s contract runs expires after 2017.

There had been at least some outside questions of Matheny’s status, given the Cards’ somewhat disappointing 82-75 mark with five games left to play. St. Louis is still battling for a Wild Card spot, of course — and the team has already qualified for the postseason in all four prior seasons of Matheny’s tenure — but never really competed this year in an NL Central that has been dominated by the rival Cubs.

“Mike’s done a really good job for us,” said DeWitt. “There’s no thought that we’re going to go in any different direction.” The owner went on to explain that Matheny remains “a great leader” who isn’t responsible for what has been “one of those years where things haven’t worked.”

GM John Mozeliak also expressed confidence in the organization’s dugout chief, saying that the 46-year-old Matheny can be unfairly blamed when things don’t go smoothly. “Mike takes a lot of heat, and I’ve defended him and I will continue to,” said Mozeliak. “I really feel like some of the things that we’re dealing with aren’t fair to put on the manager.”

It is certainly hard to argue with Matheny’s overall results, though obviously he was entrusted with a talented and veteran-laden ballclub. Still, the former big league backstop has received his share of criticism for in-game management, focused particularly on his use of the bullpen.

Clearly, though, the Cardinals’ top decisionmakers don’t feel that any shortcomings in those areas override Mathany’s track record and overall management of the club. That being said, it’s not clear that any new contract discussions will take place, and Matheny could enter the 2017 season managing for his future in the organization.

Mozeliak: Cardinals Intend To Improve Fielding This Winter

By Jeff Todd | September 28, 2016 at 10:20am CDT

Cardinals GM John Mozeliak called his team’s defense “porous” and suggested that the club would look to improve in that area this winter, Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.

This year’s St. Louis team has been one of the worst in baseball by measure of UZR. Mozeliak evidently agrees with that assessment, though it should be noted that DRS rates the Cards’ D as average. Apart from the matter of allowing unearned runs, the Cardinals landed in the middle of the pack at preventing earned runs, posting a 4.13 team ERA one season after running up a league-best 2.94 mark.

Clearly, there are other causal factors at play beyond the glovework. The pitching staff’s uninspiring performance is chief among them, but there was also some inevitable regression in store after the team’s hurlers outperformed the peripherals last year. Still, the runs prevented by stellar defense are just as valuable as those avoided owing mostly to pitching.

The question in bolstering the defense, though, is how to accomplish that goal without taking runs off the board by sacrificing productivity at the plate. “A lot of times it’s at what cost,” says Mozeliak. “To get better defense, we may have to take a step back offensively.”

There were some positives on an individual level this year. Kolten Wong and Jedd Gyorko both showed well, with the latter representing a pleasant surprise in a versatile role. The position-switching that the team ultimately employed to account for injuries and keep its best bats in the lineup may ultimately have contributed to the fielding malaise, Mozeliak hinted. (Indeed, Jhonny Peralta was panned by defensive metrics after his move to third base.) But, he added: “I still see clubs that have better defensive flexibility that have played better defense.”

It will be interesting to see what route the organization takes to improve its defensive effort in 2017. The infield seems largely set heading into the winter, but perhaps the outfield will be an area of focus. Matt Holliday remains a question mark — his option probably will not be exercised, but he could be retained — and the Cards could look to fill in with a defensively proficient replacement or instead pursue a new center fielder while shifting Randal Grichuk to the corner.

Lourdes Gurriel Setting Up Private Workouts With MLB Clubs

By Steve Adams | September 27, 2016 at 7:01pm CDT

Free agent infielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who hosted a showcase attended by roughly two-thirds of the league earlier this month, is setting up private workouts with “about a half-dozen” clubs, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. Currently known to have a private audition in the works are the Red Sox, Cardinals, Astros and Marlins, according to Heyman.

Gurriel, the younger brother of Astros infielder Yulieksi Gurriel, was declared a free agent in early August and is considered one of the better all-around prospects on the international market. He’s currently subject to international bonus pools, but that’ll change next month on Oct. 19 when Gurriel turns 23. At that point, he’ll be free to sign with any MLB club for any amount, so the Red Sox will have a shot at him even though they’re currently restricted in their signings of players that are subject to international bonus restrictions (i.e. players that are under 23 and/or have fewer than five years of professional experience).

Gurriel is a career .277/.362/.426 hitter in just under 1100 plate appearances in Cuba’s top professional league, although those numbers include some lackluster stats from his years as a teenager. Gurriel batted .308/.388/.466 as a 20-year-old in the 2014-15 season, and he was even more impressive as a 21-year-old in the 2015-16 season, hitting .344/.407/.560 with 10 homers in 245 plate appearances. Gurriel is primarily a shortstop but is also said to be capable of sliding over to third base, second base or the outfield. At 6’4″ and 205 pounds, it certainly seems possible that Gurriel will eventually have to move off of shortstop, given his size relative to his peers at that position.

Quick Hits: Scully, Trumbo, Yankees, Urshela, Cardinals

By Mark Polishuk | September 25, 2016 at 11:13pm CDT

Vin Scully’s final game behind the mic at Dodger Stadium was a memorable one, as the Dodgers clinched the NL West with a 4-3 win over the Rockies, fueled by a 10th-inning walkoff homer from Charlie Culberson. The legendary announcer has already said he won’t be calling any Dodger postseason action, so the final three games of Scully’s 67-year career will come on September 30-October 2, when the Dodgers head to San Francisco for the last three games of the regular season.

Some stray items from around baseball…

2016 is quietly on pace to be one of the biggest home run seasons in the game’s history, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan writes in his weekly “Ten Degrees” column. Hitters are on pace for the second-highest single-season homer total ever, behind only the 2000 season. With power on the rise and more readily available than in recent seasons, Passan notes that Mark Trumbo’s free agent stock could be hampered. Teams will look harder at Trumbo’s lack of defense or OBP if homers are no longer seen as quite a rare commodity.
The Yankees have been rumored to be interested in a reunion with Aroldis Chapman, and the New York Post’s Ken Davidoff notes that Dellin Betances’ recent struggles could exacerbate the Yankees’ need for another big bullpen arm. Betances has only “struggled” since August 1 (3.48 ERA and a 32:9 K/BB rate in 20 2/3 innings) by his high standards, though fatigue could be an issue given how much Betances has pitched both this season and over the last three years on the whole. Signing Chapman in free agency and moving Betances back to a setup role would again give the Yankees an elite end-game pairing, if not quite the uniquely great trio they had earlier in the season with Andrew Miller also in the mix.
As part of a reader mailbag piece, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer opined that the Indians probably aren’t likely to shop Giovanny Urshela this season now that Jose Ramirez looks like an answer at third base. Urshela is a gifted defender but he has posted just a .608 OPS over his 288 career PA in the majors and a .269/.302/.402 career slash line over eight minor league seasons. Other teams may not be willing to give up much in a trade for a player who has shown so little at the plate.
The Cubs completely rebuilt their roster from scratch to become a powerhouse team both this season and potentially for years to come, though Cardinals GM John Mozeliak tells ESPN.com’s Mark Saxon that such an extensive rebuild would be unlikely for his club. “They were able to do so without being overly concerned about how they finished for a couple years….I’ve always said St. Louis has been a place that demands winning,” Mozeliak said. “[Owner Bill] DeWitt Jr. and myself, we’re not ever looking at a season where we want to take a timeout or two and try to reshuffle the deck.” Mozeliak implied that the Cards would only explore such a strategy if their minor league system totally dried up, which doesn’t seem like an impending issue given how well St. Louis has drafted and developed young players over the last two decades.

NL Notes: Pirates, Melancon, Dodgers, Cardinals

By Connor Byrne | September 24, 2016 at 7:58pm CDT

Given the dearth of quality starting pitchers set to hit free agency during the offseason, it might make sense for the Pirates to use their money on bullpen upgrades if they’re unable to re-sign Ivan Nova, writes Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. The Pirates and Nova have engaged in extension talks, but the 29-year-old’s late-season breakout could price him out of the team’s range. If so, Sawchik suggests a reunion with soon-to-be free agent closer Mark Melancon, whom the Bucs traded to the Nationals at this year’s non-waiver trade deadline. As a 31-year-old who lacks eye-popping strikeout numbers, Melancon is likely to garner the cheapest contract among fellow impending free agent bullpen aces Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman. Melancon made his return to Pittsburgh on Friday as a visitor and received an ovation from its fans, though he suffered his first blown save as a National in a 6-5 loss.

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